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NASA NTRS2011

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Dunne, Rob↗

NASA NTRS2003

Automated Monitoring with a BCP Fault-Decision Test

The Bayesian conditional probability (BCP) technique is a statistical fault-decision technique that is suitable as the mathematical basis of the fault-manager module in the automated-monitoring system and method described in the immediately preceding article. Within the automated-monitoring system, the fault-manager module operates in conjunction with the fault-detector module, which can be based on any one of several fault-detection techniques; examples include a threshold-limit-comparison technique or the BSP or SPRT technique mentioned in the preceding article. The present BCP technique is used to evaluate a series of one or more fault-detection events for the purpose of filtering out occasional false alarms produced by many types of statistical fault-detection procedures. The BCP technique increases the probability that an automated monitoring system produces a correct decision regarding the presence or absence of a fault. Because occasional false alarms are an inevitable consequence of the SPRT, BSP, or any other statistically based fault-detection test, there is a need for a logical procedure to distinguish between true and false alarms. Heretofore, it has been common practice to make a fault decision on an ad hoc basis for example by following a multiple-observation voting strategy in which a signal is declared to be indicative of a fault if m of the last n observations produced a fault-detection alarm. The BCP technique was developed to obtain results more reliable than those afforded by a voting strategy. The BCP technique involves a test in which one applies Bayesian inference techniques to a series of one or more single-observation alarms produced by a fault-detection test. One considers the last n decisions generated by a fault-detection test in order to evaluate the conditional probability that a failure is indicated (see figure). Each new decision reached by a fault-detection test is treated as a new piece of evidence about the state of the monitored asset, and the conditional probability of failure for the system is updated on the basis of this new evidence. The conditional probability of failure is compared with a predefined limit. For a probability below the limit, the asset is declared to be healthy. For a probability above the limit, the asset is declared to be faulty.

Bickford, Randall L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Fast Image Texture Classification Using Decision Trees

Texture analysis would permit improved autonomous, onboard science data interpretation for adaptive navigation, sampling, and downlink decisions. These analyses would assist with terrain analysis and instrument placement in both macroscopic and microscopic image data products. Unfortunately, most state-of-the-art texture analysis demands computationally expensive convolutions of filters involving many floating-point operations. This makes them infeasible for radiation- hardened computers and spaceflight hardware. A new method approximates traditional texture classification of each image pixel with a fast decision-tree classifier. The classifier uses image features derived from simple filtering operations involving integer arithmetic. The texture analysis method is therefore amenable to implementation on FPGA (field-programmable gate array) hardware. Image features based on the "integral image" transform produce descriptive and efficient texture descriptors. Training the decision tree on a set of training data yields a classification scheme that produces reasonable approximations of optimal "texton" analysis at a fraction of the computational cost. A decision-tree learning algorithm employing the traditional k-means criterion of inter-cluster variance is used to learn tree structure from training data. The result is an efficient and accurate summary of surface morphology in images. This work is an evolutionary advance that unites several previous algorithms (k-means clustering, integral images, decision trees) and applies them to a new problem domain (morphology analysis for autonomous science during remote exploration). Advantages include order-of-magnitude improvements in runtime, feasibility for FPGA hardware, and significant improvements in texture classification accuracy.

Thompson, David R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MAGE: Alleviating Uncertainty in Real-Time Decision-Making as a Function of Problem Complexity

In this paper, we discuss a critical aspect of uncertainty in the operation of complex systems, such as the future air traffic: the ability of agents in the system to arrive at satisfactory decisions and the attendant actions as a function of problem complexity. Intuitively, when the problem complexity is manageable, given an appropriate decision problem formulation and solution tools, an agent (computational or human) has no trouble arriving at a solution that yields good outcomes for the agent and the system. Growing problem complexity results in progressively larger computational problems that may yield suboptimal solutions or even be intractable within required time limits or at all. We propose a measurable representation of complexity in terms of problem tractability and quality of solutions. We also propose a computational scheme, MAGE (Monitor, Anticipate, Guide, Evolve), for detecting approaching transitions from efficient decision-making states to inefficient to unsafe ones, so that operations based on decision-making can be reconfigured to forestall unfavorable transitions, returning to efficient modes when complexity diminishes. Maintaining tractable complexity reduces the uncertainty in the outcomes of decision-making. We describe the general scheme, an outline of MAGE applied to managing airspace complexity, and initial examples of investigating the tractability of problem-solving schemes.

complexity management↗

NASA NTRS2022

Increasing the Uptake of Ecological Model Results in Policy Decisions to Improve Biodiversity Outcomes

Models help decision-makers anticipate the consequences of policies for ecosystems and people; for instance, improving our ability to represent interactions between human activities and ecological systems is essential to identify pathways to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. However, use of modeling outputs in decision-making remains uncommon. We share insights from a multidisciplinary National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center working group on technical, communication, and process-related factors that facilitate or hamper uptake of model results. We emphasize that it is not simply technical model improvements, but active and iterative stakeholder involvement that can lead to more impactful outcomes. In particular, trust- and relationship-building with decision-makers are key for knowledge-based decision making. In this respect, nurturing knowledge exchange on the interpersonal (e.g., through participatory processes), and institutional level (e.g., through science-policy interfaces across scales), represent promising approaches. To this end, we offer a generalized approach for linking modeling and decision-making.

Biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification using Deep Ensembles for Decision Making in Cyber-Physical-Human Systems

In this paper and its companion, Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, Robison et al., we examine an approach to quantifying model uncertainty with the aim of increasing the trustworthiness of computational models in human-machine interactions. In Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, we focus on gradient-boosted decision trees, while in this one, we give more details about deep ensembles. Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building trustworthy autonomous decision-making agents in human-machine teams. There are two types of uncertainties: aleatoric and epistemic. The former is related to the inherent stochasticity (noise) of the process, whereas the latter is associated with the lack of knowledge or representation capability of models, such as neural networks. By lack of knowledge, we mean the model’s inability to accurately predict outputs for all possible inputs. The aleatory uncertainty can be estimated fairly easily with, for example, filters, whereas epistemic uncertainty is challenging to compute. This paper uses deep ensembles to quantify both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. It can act as an uncertainty-aware surrogate transition model for decision-making frameworks. "Uncertainty-aware" means that the surrogate transition model should make predictions along with confidence in those predictions. In the context of decision-making, the transition models are ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Since ODEs can be simulated to make one-step or multi-step predictions, a good surrogate model for them should perform reasonably well in both modes. In a multi-step approach, the trajectory sampling method TS∞ was used to propagate uncertainty over multiple steps. The cartpole dynamical system was selected to demonstrate the ability of deep ensembles as good surrogate transition models for decision-making frameworks. The deep ensembles modeled the dynamics of cartpole ODEs and made uncertainty-aware predictions in single-step and multi-step transition modes.

CPH systems↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applying Machine Learning Tools for Runway Configuration Decision Support

Determining optimal runway configurations at airports, a responsibility assigned to air traffic controllers, is a challenging task. The decision-making process is intricate and involves consideration of many factors such as prevailing wind condition, convective weather, visibility, cloud ceilings, departure and arrival demand, traffic flow, equipment status, and other airport constraints. In a previous work, we developed a Runway Configuration Assistance tool using an offline reinforcement learning method called conservative Q-learning. In this paper, we evaluate and validate our Runway Configuration Assistance tool as a decision support for air traffic controllers. We validated our tool using three airports with differing levels of complexity: Charlotte Douglas International Airport, Denver International Airport, and Dallas Fort Worth International Airport. We quantified the performance of the Runway Configuration Assistance tool based on (1) agreement with historical air traffic controller decisions and (2) violation of decisions that would be obvious to subject-matter experts. Our tool showed promising results in both performance metrics for the three airports, despite the complexities in the runway configuration decision-making process. We also discuss challenges in using machine learning in general to aid air traffic management and identify deployment considerations for the Runway Configuration Assistance tool.

Runway Configuration Management↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Tools for Runway Configuration Decision Support

Runway Configuration Management↗

NASA NTRS2024

Ensuring Safe Decision-Making on the Moon and Mars: Cognitive Performance Assessment for Exploration Class Mission EVA

Extravehicular activity (EVA) is one of the most dangerous and cognitively demanding actions that astronauts can execute, and the cognitive demands associated with future partial gravity EVA on the Moon and Mars are expected to be higher compared to microgravity EVA currently conducted from the International Space Station (ISS). Decrements in cognitive performance present an important risk to crew safety during exploration mission class EVA. Yet there is currently insufficient data to characterize cognitive performance prior to, during, and following EVA. Furthermore, it is still unclear which cognitive domains are most important for conducting mission critical decisions with crew safety implications. To address this gap, we conducted a cognitive task analysis (CTA) of EVA to characterize the procedures, the cognitive demands required, and the critical safety decisions associated with decrements in cognitive performance. We used the applied cognitive task analysis method as outlined by Militello and Hutton (1998) and conducted interviews with subject matter experts (SMEs) in EVA at NASA Johnson Space Center in summer 2024. Interviews focused on exploration EVA and elicited feedback from SMEs on the cognitive skills required for specific EVA tasks including cognitive strategies, critical cues, and decision-making strategies. A cognitive demands table was assembled to consolidate and synthesize the information from all interviews. The information from this cognitive task analysis will inform ongoing work to identify the key cognitive domains for safe decision-making during exploration mission class EVA on the Moon and Mars. This work will importantly provide a link between cognitive domains identified in the cognitive task analysis and operationally-relevant performance metrics collected during spaceflight and simulation EVA that can be tracked and assessed by NASA mission operations. Ultimately, this work will aid in the development and application of exploration class cognitive performance monitoring capabilities to improve safe decision-making and inform EVA planning on future spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars.

Steven R Anderson↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Real-Time Science Decisioning During High Tempo-High Intensity Mission Operations and the Role of Analogs

Introduction: NASA’s VIPER mission presents a unique operational paradigm within the history of robotic spaceflight. The proximity of the Moon to the Earth and the terrain elements (surface characteristics, light/shadow dynamics, communication links) of the lunar South Polar landing site create unprecedented operational conditions between these two planetary bodies. Apollo era lunar science and exploration included humans in situ to operate instruments and assimilate observational inputs in real-time. Previous lunar orbital missions have worked to operational timescales, e.g., decisional timelines and communication exchanges, that were weeks in length. Mars rover missions have worked to operational timescales, e.g., decisional timelines and communication exchanges between Mars and Earth, that were hours, days, and weeks in length. In the case of the VIPER mission, our operational decisioning for rover driving and instrument commanding will be compressed to minute-scale timeframes. These operational conditions directly impact the manner and speed with which the VIPER Science Team (VST) is required to synthesize and analyze data and produce timely science-driven decisions throughout surface mission operations. The VST shall provide mission enhancing scientific input to guide rover traverse planning and drill site confirmation and selection throughout surface operations. Further, the VST input will be of vital importance to the mission’s ability to maximize science return and to meet broader NASA objectives for future lunar in-situ resource utilization (ISRU)and exploration activities. The VST co-located in the Mission Science Center (MSC) will be responsive to the tactical operational cadence of the Mission Operations Center (MOC) and will provide further strategic and Long-Term Planning (LTP) guidance to the mission. The VIPER Science Operations & Integration(SO&I)team has developed an architecture that is focused on the infusion of science-decisioning into the operational framework and execution cadence of VIPER. NASA analog research has played a significant role in the construction of the VIPER science operations systems. As an example, the SO&I team has led analog missions that have focused on bringing together expertise in the sciences (natural, applied and social) and in operations in service of learning how to build and hold together interdisciplinary work environments and what tools are needed to support high tempo, high intensity integrated decisioning. These experiences have provided an essential foundation of knowledge to the VIPER team. Those analogs that specifically influenced the VIPER science operations construct were identified through a process of comparative analysis to prioritize those that offered relevance in whole or in part, and those that did not. The analog research output that provided extensibility to the VIPER science operations architecture included remote teams of humans and robots in cooperation (synchronous and asynchronous) with simulated earthbound systems, engineering and science teams, and the integrated assembly of tools that supported scientific analysis and data synthesis and provided infrastructure for the remote testing framework. Analogs which included real-time data monitoring, synthesis, visualization and access in a democratized and operationalized manner were of particular interest to the development of the VIPER MSC toolset both in terms of the technology and the processes used to develop the supporting infrastructure. We anticipate that each subsequent mission to the lunar south pole, whether with robots or humans, will be able to optimize science and exploration return by evolving strategies to infuse real-time collaborative science-decisioning. Furthermore, these efforts will result in a foundation for science operations development in support of human-robotic exploration of deep space and Mars. NASA analogs can continue to provide the opportunity to prepare, test and iterate on the operational concepts and tools that will support these ever-expanding space exploration efforts. Our presentation will include an overview of the VIPER Science Operations & Integration development process and specifics on what aspects of analog research have had a significant impact on our work systems.

D S S Lim↗

DOE OSTI2015

Model-assisted decision analyses related to a chromium plume at Los Alamos national Laboratory - 15449

?he chromium plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory is a complex contaminant-remediation site with spatial extent of several square kilometers. It is located in a regional aquifer near water-supply wells and other points of compliance. The plume originated on the ground surface and the contaminant migrated along complex pathways through a thick vadose zone (∼300 m) that includes intermediate lateral zones of saturation and vertical preferential flow paths. Here we discuss the development of a modeling computational framework for the site. The framework work incorporates data assimilation and model-results analysis tools including decision support techniques. The decision tools are demonstrated using synthetic problems consistent with the interpretation of existing site data and site modeling results. The analyses aim at robust and efficient environmental management of the plume and explore a series of alternative remedial options. The remedial options include natural attenuation (NA), enhanced attenuation (EA), contaminant source removal (in the vadose zone), contaminant extraction (in the regional aquifer at the plume centroid and peripheries), biogeochemical remediation (injection of fluids stimulating growth of organisms in the aquifer impacting chromium concentrations), as wells as hydraulic controls on the groundwater flow and transport in the vadose zone and the regional aquifer. The applied model analyses and decision-support algorithms are implemented in code MADS (Model Analyses for Decision Support; http://mads.lanl.gov). MADS is an open-source framework for model-based decision support employing system and physics simulation models. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

A comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain technology for the energy sector using fuzzy Einstein decision-making

The global energy sector is undergoing a significant transformation driven by decarbonization and digitalization, leading to the emergence of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) — particularly blockchain — as a promising tool for enhancing transparency, security, and efficiency in modern power systems. This study aims to provide a comprehensive academic and industrial survey of blockchain applications in the energy sector and develop a robust decision-making framework to identify and prioritize the most promising real-world use cases based on multidisciplinary criteria. A three-stage methodology was adopted: (i) a literature and market review encompassing over 300 academic publications and commercial blockchain initiatives in energy, (ii) an in-depth evaluation of the evolution and viability of blockchain initiatives in energy with the help of expert surveys, and (iii) a novel decision-making model using a q-rung orthopair fuzzy Multi-Attributive Border Approximation (q-ROF-MABAC) method under the Einstein operator. The results were compared with existing decision models to validate consistency and robustness. Nine key blockchain use case categories were identified and ranked based on technical, economic, and governance dimensions. The results demonstrated that integrating expert insights into a fuzzy logic framework helps filter out overhyped claims in the literature and prioritize realistic and high-impact applications such as green certificates, grid services, and peer-to-peer energy trading. The model’s rankings remained stable across varying weight configurations, confirming the robustness of the methodology. This study provides an evidence-based decision-support tool for researchers, industry stakeholders, and policymakers to better understand, evaluate, and adopt blockchain technologies in the energy sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2005

Evaluation of Decision Trees for Cloud Detection from AVHRR Data

Automated cloud detection and tracking is an important step in assessing changes in radiation budgets associated with global climate change via remote sensing. Data products based on satellite imagery are available to the scientific community for studying trends in the Earth's atmosphere. The data products include pixel-based cloud masks that assign cloud-cover classifications to pixels. Many cloud-mask algorithms have the form of decision trees. The decision trees employ sequential tests that scientists designed based on empirical astrophysics studies and simulations. Limitations of existing cloud masks restrict our ability to accurately track changes in cloud patterns over time. In a previous study we compared automatically learned decision trees to cloud masks included in Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data products from the year 2000. In this paper we report the replication of the study for five-year data, and for a gold standard based on surface observations performed by scientists at weather stations in the British Islands. For our sample data, the accuracy of automatically learned decision trees was greater than the accuracy of the cloud masks p < 0.001.

AVHRR (ADVANCED VERY HIGH RESOLUTION RADIOMETER)↗

DOE OSTI2018

Harnessing expert knowledge: Defining a Bayesian network decision model with limited data-Model structure for the vibration qualification problem

As systems become more complex, systems engineers rely on experts to inform decisions. There are few experts and limited data in many complex new technologies. This challenges systems engineers as they strive to plan activities such as qualification in an environment where technical constraints are coupled with the traditional cost, risk, and schedule constraints. Bayesian network (BN) models provide a framework to aid systems engineers in planning qualification efforts with complex constraints by harnessing expert knowledge and incorporating technical factors. By quantifying causal factors, a BN model can provide data about the risk of implementing a decision supplemented with information on driving factors. This allows a systems engineer to make informed decisions and examine “what-if” scenarios. This paper discusses a novel process developed to define a BN model structure based primarily on expert knowledge supplemented with extremely limited data (25 data sets or less). The model was developed to aid qualification decisions—specifically to predict the suitability of six degrees of freedom (6DOF) vibration testing for qualification. The process defined the model structure with expert knowledge in an unbiased manner. Finally, validation during the process execution and of the model provided evidence the process may be an effective tool in harnessing expert knowledge for a BN model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Modular evaluation method for subsurface activities (MEMSA). A novel approach for integrating social acceptance in a permit decision-making process for subsurface activities

We investigate how the decision support system ‘Modular Evaluation Method Subsurface Activities’ (MEMSA) can help facilitate an informed decision-making process for permit applications of subsurface activities. To this end, we analyze the extent the MEMSA approach allows for a dialogue between stakeholders in a transparent manner. We use the exploration permit for the underground gas storage facility at the Pieterburen salt dome (Netherlands) as a case study. The results suggest that the MEMSA approach is flexible enough to adjust to changing conditions. Furthermore, MEMSA provides a novel way for identifying structural problems and possible solutions in permit decision-making processes for subsurface activities, on the basis of the sensitivity analysis of intermediate rankings. We suggest that the planned size of an activity should already be specified in the exploration phase, because this would allow for a more efficient use of the subsurface as a whole. We conclude that the host community should be involved to a greater extent and in an early phase of the permit decision-making process, for example, already during the initial analysis of the project area of a subsurface activity. We suggest that strategic national policy goals are to be re-evaluated on a regular basis, in the form of a strategic vision for the subsurface, to account for timing discrepancies between the realization of activities and policy deadlines, because this discrepancy can have a large impact on the necessity and therefore acceptance of a subsurface activity.

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DOE OSTI2014

Interactive Decision-Support Tool for Risk-Based Radiation Therapy Plan Comparison for Hodgkin Lymphoma

Purpose: To present a novel tool that allows quantitative estimation and visualization of the risk of various relevant normal tissue endpoints to aid in treatment plan comparison and clinical decision making in radiation therapy (RT) planning for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). Methods and Materials: A decision-support tool for risk-based, individualized treatment plan comparison is presented. The tool displays dose–response relationships, derived from published clinical data, for a number of relevant side effects and thereby provides direct visualization of the trade-off between these endpoints. The Quantitative Analyses of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic reports were applied, complemented with newer data where available. A “relevance score” was assigned to each data source, reflecting how relevant the input data are to current RT for HL. Results: The tool is applied to visualize the local steepness of dose–response curves to drive the reoptimization of a volumetric modulated arc therapy treatment plan for an HL patient with head-and-neck involvement. We also use this decision-support tool to visualize and quantitatively evaluate the trade-off between a 3-dimensional conformal RT plan and a volumetric modulated arc therapy plan for a patient with mediastinal HL. Conclusion: This multiple-endpoint decision-support tool provides quantitative risk estimates to supplement the clinical judgment of the radiation oncologist when comparing different RT options.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Evacuation decision behavior for no-notice emergency events

No-notice emergency events refer to unpredictable disasters such as earthquakes, chemical spills, or terrorist attacks, where it is impracticable to forewarn the public about their occurrence and design evacuation plans for them. This calls for an in-depth investigation of people’s evacuation behavior and identifying the most influential factors in their evacuation planning process to develop policy-sensitive pre-disaster plans for such events. As a response to this need, this study investigates individuals’ evacuation decision behavior in the context of no-notice emergency events. Since it is highly expected that people will have heterogenous decision behavior in such situations, we first apply a clustering algorithm to classify them into three maximally homogeneous clusters. Then, cluster-specific multivariate ordered probit models are developed to estimate the likelihood of selecting any of the three options of ignoring the situation, seeking shelter at the place, and evacuating to a safe place. The model estimation results indicate that a wide spectrum of factors affect the evacuation decision including individuals’ socio-economic attributes, disaster characteristics, built-environment factors, and government evacuation order. Further, variations of estimated coefficients across the population clusters highlight the significant dissimilarities in decision behavior of their associated members.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2013

A Cumulative Energy Demand indicator (CED), life cycle based, for industrial waste management decision making

Highlights: • We developed a methodology useful to environmentally compare industrial waste management options. • The methodology uses a Net Energy Demand indicator which is life cycle based. • The method was simplified to be widely used, thus avoiding cost driven decisions. • This methodology is useful for governments to promote the best environmental options. • This methodology can be widely used by other countries or regions around the world. - Abstract: Life cycle thinking is a good approach to be used for environmental decision-support, although the complexity of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies sometimes prevents their wide use. The purpose of this paper is to show how LCA methodology can be simplified to be more useful for certain applications. In order to improve waste management in Catalonia (Spain), a Cumulative Energy Demand indicator (LCA-based) has been used to obtain four mathematical models to help the government in the decision of preventing or allowing a specific waste from going out of the borders. The conceptual equations and all the subsequent developments and assumptions made to obtain the simplified models are presented. One of the four models is discussed in detail, presenting the final simplified equation to be subsequently used by the government in decision making. The resulting model has been found to be scientifically robust, simple to implement and, above all, fulfilling its purpose: the limitation of waste transport out of Catalonia unless the waste recovery operations are significantly better and justify this transport.

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