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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Model-based predictive control of multi-zone commercial building with a lumped building modelling approach

Here this study investigates the applicability of a lumped building modeling approach to model-based predictive control (MPC) to alleviate the complex modeling process of the grey-box multi-zone building model. Based on experimental data, two building models were estimated in this study. The detailed model as a reference case and a lumped model were estimated with decentralized and conventional approaches, respectively. Then, simulations were performed with two boundary conditions, including the comfort bound and electricity cost structure. The performances of the MPC with the detailed and lumped models were analyzed compared to the feedback control. More savings was achieved with a larger comfort bound and more aggressive electricity cost structure. The savings potential of the proposed lumped model approach was not as high as that of the detailed model. However, the proposed method yields good control performance, whose savings was approximately 8.6% over that of feedback control. These results suggest that the proposed method can be used to facilitate MPC implementation in multi-zone building applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental demonstration of real-time electron temperature profile control in DIII-D

Future tokamak reactor operation will require the ability to maintain a given plasma scenario for extended periods of time. This will necessitate the capability to react to changes in the plasma state and return the plasma to the target scenario; the principal method to achieve this is through feedback control. Thus, it is necessary to develop and test feedback controllers for the plasma profiles that define a target scenario. In this work, a feedback controller for the electron temperature (Te) profile is tested experimentally in DIII-D. This experiment relied on the ability to ascertain the electron temperature profile in real time, which was achieved using an observer algorithm. The observer relies on both diagnostic data and a predictive model of the electron temperature profile evolution; this predictive model includes contributions from neural network surrogate models. Because of these dependencies, a number of capabilities needed to be added to the real-time PCS for DIII-D in order to support the Te profile control experiment. The neural network surrogates needed to be integrated into the PCS to be called in real time. An observer algorithm for the Te profile needed to be added and connected to the Thomson scattering system to allow access to the current state of the profile in real time. When tested, the observer was shown to produce Te profiles that are consistent with the shape of the Thomson scattering data while rejecting much of the noise in the diagnostic data. Finally, the controller itself was tested in real time. This experiment showed that the controller is capable of tracking the electron temperature target at locations across the spatial profile.

Morosohk, Shira [Oak Ridge Associated Universities↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Kyasanur forest disease in resource-limited settings using event-based surveillance and transfer learning

In recent years, the reports of Kyasanur forest disease (KFD) breaking endemic barriers by spreading to new regions and crossing state boundaries is alarming. Effective disease surveillance and reporting systems are lacking for this emerging zoonosis, hence hindering control and prevention efforts. We compared time-series models using weather data with and without Event-Based Surveillance (EBS) information, i.e., news media reports and internet search trends, to predict monthly KFD cases in humans. We fitted Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Long Short-Term Memory models at the national and regional levels. We utilized the rich epidemiological data from endemic regions by applying Transfer Learning (TL) techniques to predict KFD cases in new outbreak regions where disease surveillance information was scarce. Overall, the inclusion of EBS data, in addition to the weather data, substantially increased the prediction performance across all models. The XGB method produced the best predictions at the national and regional levels. The TL techniques outperformed baseline models in predicting KFD in new outbreak regions. Novel sources of data and advanced machine-learning approaches, e.g., EBS and TL, show great potential towards increasing disease prediction capabilities in data-scarce scenarios and/or resource-limited settings, for better-informed decisions in the face of emerging zoonotic threats.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Data-Driven Algorithm for Enabling Delay Tolerance in Resilient Microgrid Controls Using Dynamic Mode Decomposition

The increased implementation of smart grid technologies in the power distribution grid presents unique opportunities that enable resiliency, but also brings challenges motivating needs for novel solutions and mitigation techniques. The bi-directional power and data flow allow for the grid to operate with increased resiliency, which is the ability to avoid discontinuity of service to end-use loads during extreme events. However, in applications where control of the distribution grid or microgrid relies on communication networks, the degradation of communication systems in the form of loss or high latency can cause maloperation and result in loss of end-use loads. Here this paper presents a novel framework to enable delay tolerance of centralized microgrid control schemes to mitigate communication system latency impacts and guarantee successful control action. We demonstrate the delay tolerance on a control scheme that operates a battery energy storage system (BESS) to offset the sudden loss of generation and maintain system frequency. During periods of severely degraded communication system performance, the proposed delay-tolerant algorithm compensates for the latency by utilizing a data-driven model generated at the device level using dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) to determine the performance of the communications. The DMD technique predicts the system’s frequency using device-level terminal measurements and provides updated control signals. The HELICS cosimulation platform evaluates the cyber-physical interaction of the power system model in GridLAB-D, the centralized control agent in Python, and the discrete network model in NS-3. The framework is tested and validated on the IEEE-123 node system modified to represent a networked remote microgrid model, and the results show an improvement in the dynamic performance

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Verification of Coupled Hydraulic Fracturing Simulators Using Laboratory-Scale Experiments

In this work, we aim to verify the predictions of the numerical simulators, which are used for designing field-scale hydraulic stimulation experiments. Although a strong theoretical understanding of this process has been gained over the past few decades, numerical predictions of fracture propagation in low-permeability rocks still remains a challenge. Against this background, we performed controlled laboratory-scale hydraulic fracturing experiments in granite samples, which not only provides high-quality experimental data but also a well-characterized experimental set-up. Using the experimental pressure responses and the final fracture sizes as benchmark, we compared the numerical predictions of two coupled hydraulic fracturing simulators—CSMP and GEOS. Both the simulators reproduced the experimental pressure behavior by implementing the physics of Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) and lubrication theory within a reasonable degree of accuracy. The simulation results indicate that even in the very low-porosity (1–2 %) and low-permeability (10 -18 m 2 - 10 -19 m 2 ) crystalline rocks, which are usually the target of EGS, fluid-loss into the matrix and unsaturated flow impacts the formation breakdown pressure and the post-breakdown pressure trends. Therefore, underestimation of such parameters in numerical modeling can lead to significant underestimation of breakdown pressure. The simulation results also indicate the importance of implementing wellbore solvers for considering the effect of system compressibility and pressure drop due to friction in the injection line. The varying injection rate as a result of decompression at the instant of fracture initiation affects the fracture size, while the entry friction at the connection between the well and the initial notch may cause an increase in the measured breakdown pressure.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

INITIAL STUDIES OF CAVITY FAULT PREDICTION AT JEFFERSON LABORATORY

The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Laboratory is a CW recirculating linac that utilizes over 400 superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities to accelerate electrons up to 12 GeV through 5-passes. Recent work has shown that, given RF signals from a cavity during a fault as input, machine learning approaches can accurately classify the fault type. In this paper we report on initial results of predicting a fault onset using only data prior to the failure event. A data set was constructed using time-series data immediately before a fault (’unstable’) and 1.5 seconds prior to a fault (’stable’) gathered from over 5,000 saved fault events. The data was used to train a binary classifier. The results gave key insights into the behavior of several fault types and provided motivation to investigate whether data prior to a failure event could also predict the type of fault. We discuss our method using a sliding window approach and report on initial results. Recent modifications to the low-level RF control system will provide access to streaming signals and we outline a path forward for leveraging deep learning on streaming data

Vidyaratne, Lasitha↗
DOE OSTI2021

INITIAL STUDIES OF CAVITY FAULT PREDICTION AT JEFFERSON LABORATORY

The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Laboratory is a CW recirculating linac that utilizes over 400 superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities to accelerate electrons up to 12 GeV through 5-passes. Recent work has shown that, given RF signals from a cavity during a fault as input, machine learning approaches can accurately classify the fault type. In this paper we report on initial results of predicting a fault onset using only data prior to the failure event. A data set was constructed using time-series data immediately before a fault (’unstable’) and 1.5 seconds prior to a fault (’stable’) gathered from over 5,000 saved fault events. The data was used to train a binary classifier. The results gave key insights into the behavior of several fault types and provided motivation to investigate whether data prior to a failure event could also predict the type of fault. We discuss our method using a sliding window approach and report on initial results. Recent modifications to the low-level RF control system will provide access to streaming signals and we outline a path forward for leveraging deep learning on streaming data

Vidyaratne, Lasitha↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data Driven Commercial Building Energy Code Compliance and Technology Inventory for New York City

Building Performance Standards (BPS) are gaining national traction. A BPS will require new processes in the design, construction, and operation of buildings that take the occupants into account and enable predictive analysis to ensure compliance with current and future GHG emissions caps. In New York City, most buildings over 25,000 square feet will be regulated by a BPS starting in 2024, regardless of whether it is new construction permitted under current energy codes or an existing building. This research is one of the first to begin the evaluation of a long-term series of building policies in the context of an open data ecosystem, in cooperation with city agencies. Existing building policies enacted in NYC have ranged from building energy benchmarking and labeling to energy audits to the regulation of GHG emission in buildings. Through the development of a dataset related to building technologies and energy consumption, this project can help to evaluate if meaningful conclusions can be drawn for the data that has been largely self-reported in compliance with city regulations. This project will also provide lessons learned from a deep dive into these types of datasets to provide best practices for municipalities or states seeking to embark on policies like those enacted in NYC. In addition, a Building Automation System (BAS) Stretch Standard of Care (SSOC) for owners, designers, and building operators will enable the measurement and predictive analysis of energy consumption and GHG emissions at the plant, system, or component level, in anticipation of regulated GHG limits on buildings based on energy use. The SSOC is expected to be suitable for use on a national level. The primary feature of an SSOC is a standardized format for a set of BAS points that can be used to control and to gather data from individual plants, systems, or components that are related to building energy consumption. This project examined how measurements compare to prescriptive or simulation-based energy code targets, finding little correlation between predictive 8760-hour energy modeling and actual energy consumption for a small sample (n=27) of buildings constructed after 2015. Other analysis found that, while large multifamily housing (MFH) buildings showed a general trend similar to predicted reductions in energy use from the implementation of model commercial energy codes, this trend was not evident in the office, K-12 school, and hotel use groups in NYC. No upward or downward trends in energy consumption were found when buildings were grouped by size. Energy audit data were analyzed and it appears that there is bias by audit company on measures recommended to clients. Further research should be performed to cross-analyze this with other attributes, such as building size, vintage, and number of stories. Analysis found that for 281 buildings that were permitted and completed after 2015 and had submitted benchmarking data in 2022, between 81% and 96% (by use group) were found to be in compliance with the 2024 to 2029 NYC BPS emission caps, and between 55% and 89% were in compliance with the 2030-2034 caps. This work is beneficial to the public in helping policymakers and building stakeholders better understand the wide-ranging implications of a BPS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

JAMES BUTTLE REVIEW: Interflow, subsurface stormflow and throughflow: A synthesis of field work and modelling

Interflow, throughflow and subsurface stormflow are interchangeable terms that refer to the lateral subsurface flow above a restricting layer of lower hydraulic conductivity that occurs during and following storm events. Interflow (used here) is a more dominant process in steeper catchments with high infiltration capacity soils overlying a more impermeable soil or geologic layer. Interflow as a runoff process was first recognised in the early 1900s, yet hydrologists still struggle to predict its occurrence, persistence, importance, interaction with other streamflow generation processes, and potential to connect to valleys and streams during and following storms. We review the history of interflow research and address some of the challenges in understanding its role in runoff production. We argue that characterising the controls on interflow initiation and occurrence relies on detailed field observations of subsurface properties, which exist only in limited experimental settings. This data shortcoming contributes to our inability to predict interflow or determine its contribution to streamflow more broadly. There remain many opportunities to advance our understanding of interflow that include both modelling and experimental or observational approaches in hydrology.

hillslope hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dual frequency comb spectroscopy of solid fuel pyrolysis and combustion: Quantifying the influence of moisture content in Douglas fir

As the fire research community develops multi-scale models to predict the spread of wildland fires, there is a need for well-controlled, small-scale experiments which provide benchmark data and fundamental understanding of the effects of key parameters on the combustion of wildland fuels. Here, we implement a unique suite of non-intrusive, quantitative diagnostics that simultaneously measure mass loss, surface temperature, in situ gas temperature and water vapor concentration, including the first implementation of dual frequency comb spectroscopy for the study of solid fuels. As a demonstration, we examine the effect of fuel moisture content on the burning of Douglas fir wood samples that are ignited under constant radiative heat flux from a cone calorimeter to provide benchmark data for multi-scale models. Peak flame temperatures 3 mm above the sample surface measured with the dual frequency comb laser spectrometer are in excess of 1200 K. The flame temperature decreases by over 150 K as fuel moisture content increases from 0.7% to 40%. This work demonstrates a platform for simultaneous, quantitative measurements of well-controlled small-scale experiments which provide benchmark data for the development of advanced modeling and simulations capable of capturing the complex physics present in wildland fire systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of a Subcritical Coal-Fired Power Plant under Load-Following Conditions

Dynamic models for power plants that capture realistic general process trends and effects of manipulated variables are needed to improve load-following, while minimizing carbon footprint. In this work, a dynamic modeling approach and simulation results for subcritical coal-fired power plant components are presented. These encompass simulation of the dynamics in the fireside, including the effects of fuel, air combustion, and the dynamics of the entire waterside and power generation sections. This model development enables the simulation and analysis of the important short and long-time scale dynamics of components such as heaters, evaporative loop, and power generation units. Furthermore, additional variables in the power generation section are introduced to improve model accuracy, extending the prediction capability of subcritical power plant models and opening new opportunities for research in operator training, optimization, and advanced model-based controller design that are based on these models. The change in process gain for different ramp rates associated with disturbance signals that affect process variables is also explored and a correlation developed. This provides opportunities to study disturbance rejection control implementation and adaptation for scenarios with such variations in ramp rates. The prediction capabilities of selected components are compared to data available in literature, with the obtained root mean squared error ranges that reflect the model performance and quality of predictions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

A high spatial resolution land surface phenology dataset for AmeriFlux and NEON sites

Abstract Vegetation phenology is a key control on water, energy, and carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. Because vegetation canopies are heterogeneous, spatially explicit information related to seasonality in vegetation activity provides valuable information for studies that use eddy covariance measurements to study ecosystem function and land-atmosphere interactions. Here we present a land surface phenology (LSP) dataset derived at 3 m spatial resolution from PlanetScope imagery across a range of plant functional types and climates in North America. The dataset provides spatially explicit information related to the timing of phenophase changes such as the start, peak, and end of vegetation activity, along with vegetation index metrics and associated quality assurance flags for the growing seasons of 2017–2021 for 10 × 10 km windows centred over 104 eddy covariance towers at AmeriFlux and National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites. These LSP data can be used to analyse processes controlling the seasonality of ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes, to evaluate predictions from land surface models, and to assess satellite-based LSP products.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anomaly detection for MPC forecast in Fleet of Water Heaters

Among residential devices, water heaters consume 20% of home energy use in the United States. Water heaters possess the capability to store energy within their reservoirs, enabling the ability to decouple energy use from hot water use. This capability can be used to reduce energy usage and costs while also supporting grid services. This requires accurate forecasting of the parameters of the water heater such as upper and lower temperatures. In this study, we analyzed the performance and behavior of a water heater model used in the real-world to predict a control mechanism that is implemented in a smart residential neighborhood. The model forecasts are accurate in most cases but not all. In such scenarios, error correction of the model is necessary to further improve model predictive control accuracy. Anomaly detection is the first step of error correction. This study complements existing research by grouping time series data into two clusters one with anomalies and another without anomalies. To achieve this task, we explored and compared multiple unsupervised machine learning algorithms to perform clustering. Among these algorithms, Ward clustering has the lowest running time and identified the highest number of anomalies for the upper temperature limit. The proposed approach is tested based on the data collected in a neighborhood with 46 townhomes located in Atlanta, GA.

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗
DOE OSTI2023

Smart Mobility in the Cloud: Enabling Real-Time Situational Awareness and Cyber-Physical Control Through a Digital Twin for Traffic

This article presents the design, implementation, and use cases of the Chattanooga Digital Twin (CTwin) towards the vision for next-generation smart city applications for urban mobility management. CTwin is an end-to-end web-based platform that incorporates various aspects of the decision-making process for optimizing urban transportation systems in Chattanooga, Tennessee, to reduce traffic congestion, incidents, and vehicle fuel consumption. The platform serves as a cyberinfrastructure to collect and integrate multi-domain urban mobility data from various online repositories and Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, covering multiple urban aspects (e.g., traffic, natural hazards, weather, and safety) that are relevant to urban mobility management. The platform enables advanced capabilities for: (a) real-time situational awareness on traffic and infrastructure conditions on highways and urban roads, (b) cyber-physical control for optimizing traffic signal timing, and (c) interactive visual analytics on big urban mobility data and various metrics for traffic prediction and transportation performance evaluation. The platform is designed using a multi-level componentization paradigm and is implemented using modular and adaptive architecture, rendering it as a generalizable and extendable prototype for other urban management applications. We present several use cases to demonstrate CTwin's core capabilities for supporting decision-making in smart urban mobility management.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A constitutive model for sheared dense suspensions of rough particles

In a concentrated suspension, particles come into contact due to the presence of asperities on their surfaces. As a result, the contact forces and interparticle friction become one of the important factors governing the rheology of rigid particle suspensions at high concentrations. We show that a load-dependent friction model can be used to reproduce the experimentally observed shear thickening [ST—continuous and discontinuous (DST)] behavior with an increase in the asperity size. Increasing the particle surface roughness size leads to a decrease in the critical shear rate above which shear-thickening takes place, a reduction in the critical volume fraction for DST and an increase in the viscosity jump across non-shear-thickened to shear-thickened regime. In this paper, we propose a constitutive model to quantify the effect of increasing the roughness size on the rheology of dense ST suspensions as well as on the critical shear rate for ST and the critical volume fraction for DST. We fit this model to our simulation data for stress controlled shear flow of dense rough particle suspensions. Once the fitting is complete, these equations are used to predict exact volume fractions and shear stress values for transitions between three regimes on the shear stress-shear rate flow state diagram for different roughness values. Furthermore, the results of this study can be used to tune the particle surface roughness for manipulating the dense suspension rheology according to different applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Digital Twin Modeling and Simulation

A digital twin has intelligent modules that continuously monitor the condition of the individual components and the whole of a system. Digital twins can provide nuclear power plants (NPP) operators an unprecedented level of monitoring, control, supervision, and security by contributing a greater volume of data for more comprehensive data analysis and increased accuracy of insights and predictions for decision making throughout the entire NPP lifecycle. NPP operators and managers have historically relied on limited, second hand or incomplete data. With proper implementation, digital twins can provide a central hub of all intel that allows for a multidisciplinary view of an NPP. This equips operators and managers with the ability to have more information, context, and intel that can be used for greater granularity during planning and decision making. Digital twins can be used in many activities as the technology has many different concepts surrounding it. From the various definitions of a digital twin within the industry, digital twins can be differentiated by levels of integration/automation. The three main models include digital model, digital shadow, and digital twin. Digital twins offer many potential advancements to the nuclear industry that could reduce costs, improve designs, provide safer operation, and improve their overall security.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Control of Sodium Cold Trap Purification Temperature Using LSTM System Identification

This study investigates the dynamic regulation of the sodium cold trap purification temperature at Argonne National Laboratory’s liquid sodium test facility, employing long short-term memory (LSTM) system identification techniques. The investigation introduces an innovative hybrid approach by integrating model predictive control (MPC) based on first principles dynamic models with a multi-step time–frequency LSTM model in predicting the temperature profiles of a sodium cold trap purification system. The long short-term memory–model predictive controller (LSTM-MPC) model employs a sliding window scheme to gather training samples for multi-step prediction, leveraging historical data to construct predictive models that capture the non-linearities of the complex system dynamics without explicitly modeling the underlying physical processes. The performance of the LSTM-MPC and MPC were evaluated through simulation experiments, where both models were assessed on their capacity to maintain the cold trap temperature within predefined set-points while minimizing deviations and overshoots. Results obtained show how the data-driven LSTM-MPC model demonstrates stability and adaptability. In contrast, the traditional MPC model exhibits irregularities, particularly evident as overshoots around set-point limits, which can potentially compromise its effectiveness over long prediction time intervals. The findings obtained offer valuable insights into integrating data-driven techniques for enhancing real-time monitoring systems.

LSTM-MPC↗