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DOE OSTI2023

Parametric Study of Lithium-Ion Batteries using BatPaC (Final Report)

The Battery Performance and Cost Model (BatPaC) is a tool developed by Argonne National Laboratory to design lithium-ion battery (LIB) packs for automotive applications. The material demand and design specifications are used to estimate the cost of manufacturing the battery pack in a large volume production plant (5-50 GWh/year). With the option to select from various electrode chemistries and materials with their associated properties and prices, the resultant battery pack mass, volume, and cost can vary considerably. This report is the result of a parametric sensitivity study that helps identify the key parameters and prices that affect the battery metrics – the specific energy (Wh/kg) and the pack cost ($/kWh). The study was conducted with LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC622) and graphite (G) electrodes as the baseline materials used in a battery pack for a 300-mile range battery electric vehicle (BEV300) and a 50-mile range plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV50).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Power Plant Bidding in Models of Future Electricity Systems

This paper proposes a stochastic model for hybrid power plants participation in day-ahead electricity markets, considering uncertainty in market prices and renewable generation. Additionally, it presents a methodology to incorporate this hybrid participation into existing production cost models (PCM), allowing the analysis and market design of future systems with high penetration of hybrids. These developments are illustrated using a wind-battery hybrid located in New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) footprint.

Kemp, Julie Mulvaney↗

DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Comparison of Molten-Salt Electrolysis and Carbothermic Reduction for the Production of Metallurgical-Grade Silicon

Metallurgical-grade silicon (MG-Si) is an important source material for many industrial applications, including the manufacture of alloys, solar photovoltaics, and electronics. The process to refine raw materials into MG-Si is energy-intensive, with the predominant method of submerged-arc furnaces requiring energy consumption of approximately 11–13 kWh/kg Si. Recent research has discussed promising methods for reducing the energy required for the silicon production process, including the use of molten-salt electrolysis (MSE), a technique that offers potential savings in energy consumption without requiring carbon inputs for the process. This paper presents a techno-economic study of a potential industrial-scale MSE plant for MG-Si production to evaluate the trade-offs between capital and operating costs of the system. Capital costs are sourced from recent MG-Si plants and an existing cost model developed for MSE processes that includes the size of the plant and the operating temperature among its inputs. The results show that MSE technology has the potential to be an economically cost-competitive option for MG-Si production if the technology successfully scales to industrial production and matures enough to allow for financing costs similar to that of a comparably sized submerged-arc furnace plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Global Carbon Costs of Plant Nitrogen and Phosphorus Acquisition

Abstract Most Earth system models (ESMs) do not explicitly represent the carbon (C) costs of plant nutrient acquisition, which leads to uncertainty in predictions of the current and future constraints to the land C sink. We integrate a plant productivity‐optimizing nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) acquisition model (fixation & uptake of nutrients, FUN) into the energy exascale Earth system (E3SM) land model (ELM). Global plant N and P uptake are dynamically simulated by ELM‐FUN based on the C costs of nutrient acquisition from mycorrhizae, direct root uptake, retranslocation from senescing leaves, and biological N fixation. We benchmarked ELM‐FUN with three classes of products: ILAMB, a remotely sensed nutrient limitation product, and CMIP6 models; we found significant improvements in C cycle variables, although the lack of more observed nutrient data prevents a comprehensive level of benchmarking. Overall, we found N and P co‐limitation for 80% of land area, with the remaining 20% being either predominantly N or P limited. Globally, the new model predicts that plants invested 4.1 Pg C yr −1 to acquire 841.8 Tg N yr −1 and 48.1 Tg P yr −1 (1994–2005), leading to significant downregulation of global net primary production (NPP). Global NPP is reduced by 20% with C costs of N and 50% with C costs of NP. Modeled and observed nutrient limitation agreement increases when N and P are considered together ( r 2 from 0.73 to 0.83).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Acquire and Test IDAES Framework Components

The cooperation under the Grid Modernization Initiative and the Applied Energy Tri-Laboratory umbrellas requires mutual understanding of capabilities and a common effort to identify gaps existing in the available computational modeling and analysis tools. In this work, we report acquisition and testing of the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) framework, particularly including both electric power systems production cost model simulator Prescient as well as system optimization IDAES itself. Further, we consider the methods in which developments in Prescient and IDAES for grid-energy simulation and optimization may be included in the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) ecosystem that has been under collaborative development by Idaho National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We propose two integration methods to introduce Prescient and IDAES into existing FORCE automated workflows. One integration involves using Prescient as a market reduced-order model and IDAES models similar to how existing Modelica models are used. The other integration involves wrapping the Prescient-IDAES dispatch optimization process with the stochastic capacity optimization workflow in FORCE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Herbaceous Feedstock 2018 State of Technology Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) promotes the production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the state of technology (SOT). As part of its involvement with this mission, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) completes an annual SOT report for biomass feedstock logistics. This report summarizes supply system impacts of Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)-funded research and development efforts at INL and elsewhere (such as the High-Tonnage Feedstock Logistics projects (Webb et al. 2013a, Webb et al. 2013b, Webb et al. 2013c, Webb and Sokhansanj 2014, Sokhansanj et al. 2014) that lead to improvements in feedstock supply systems. These include improvements to and observed performance of innovative harvest and collection methods, storage technologies, transportation and handling approaches, and advanced preprocessing technologies. Biomass quality and variability, and the interface between feedstock quality and conversion performance are key drivers in addition to delivered feedstock cost. In this report, we estimate the benefits of R&D improvements to individual supply system unit operations, and present the status of feedstock logistics technology development for converting biomass into biofuels. These analyses are supported by experimental data where possible, and help to align the SOT relative to the cost goals defined in the Multi-Year Program Plan. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT aligned feedstock logistic design with current biorefinery’s design capacity utilized by biochemical conversion platform. Currently biochemical conversion platform utilizes a 725,000 dry ton/year biorefiney design for the techno economic analysis. Hence, feedstock delivered cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT is calculated based on biorefinery’s 725,000 dry ton design capacity instead of 800, 000 dry ton capacity utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. Biomass availabilities in this SOT were updated to year 2018 data from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report (BT16) (DOE 2016a), with the exception of switchgrass, for which the 2018 Herbaceous SOT utilized the 2019 switchgrass availability data from BT16. The BT16 report (DOE 2016a) does not project switchgrass availability in 2018; the soonest switchgrass is available in the BT16 report is 2019. Therefore, availability of switchgrass for this analysis was that projected for 2019. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT incorporates same technologies utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. However, a sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the impact of variation of process parameters on those technologies on feedstock logistic cost. New R&D data that shows the variations of process parameters affecting process performance is incorporated in the 2018 SOT to measure the variations in delivered feedstock cost. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT has also provided projected delivered feedstock of 2022 design case based on near term technical target under BETO funded R&D project. Finally, updated biorefinery size of 725,000 dry ton/year was incorporated within least-cost formulation model to select optimal siting and depot scales during optimization of the least cost blend. This modification to the optimization algorithm allows the trade-off between the cost of increased supply radius and the savings from selecting biomass from higher producing counties to be assessed. Such optimization has also showed the economic benefit of decentralized depots in comparison to centralized preprocessing co-located with the biorefinery by decoupling the biorefinery and feedstock locations. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT report documents the current modeled cost of a herbaceous feedstock supply system (from harvest to the pretreatment reactor throat, including grower payment) for hydrocarbon fuel production via biochemical conversion, based on equipment and processes now available or potentially available in the near term. The modeled cost also considers both the required quality and the availability of the biomass resources. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT predicts a modeled delivered feedstock cost of $83.67/dry ton (2016$); this is a $0.23/dry ton (2016$) decrease from the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. The modification of biorefinery’s designed capacity and increased projected biomass availability in the same supply shed contributed to this modeled cost reduction. The least-cost formulation model to optimally site and scale local distributed preprocessing depots also contributed to the cost reduction by considering county-level grower payment and distance from the biorefinery as variables in the optimization algorithm. Sensitivity analysis on various process parameters that affect delivered feedstock cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT shows that the delivered cost could varies from $80.45-$88.83/dry ton. The top factors that causes such variations are: effective baling rate, bale density, hammer mill throughput, interest rate and storage dry matter loss.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Physics-guided logistic classification for tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in machining

This paper describes a physics-guided logistic classification method for tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in machining. Tool life is modeled using a classification method since the exact tool life cannot be measured in a typical production environment where tool wear can only be directly measured when the tool is replaced. Here, in this study, laboratory tool wear experiments are used to simulate tool wear data normally collected during part production. Two states are defined: tool not worn (class 0) and tool worn (class 1). The non-linear reduction in tool life with cutting speed is modeled by applying a logarithmic transformation to the inputs for the logistic classification model. A method for interpretability of the logistic model coefficients is provided by comparison with the empirical Taylor tool life model. The method is validated using tool wear experiments for milling. Results show that the physics-guided logistic classification method can predict tool life using limited datasets. A method for pre-process optimization of machining parameters using a probabilistic machining cost model is presented. The proposed method offers a robust and practical approach to tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in a production environment.

Machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2020

Technoeconomic Analysis of Photovoltaics Module Manufacturing with Thin Silicon Wafers

Reducing silicon usage by adopting thinner wafers can significantly reduce capital expenditure (capex) and cost, and thus accelerate the growth of manufacturing capacity and deployment. In this work, we evaluated potential benefits of thin Si wafers for current and future PV modules. We apply a technoeconomic framework that couples bottom-up cost model, and a cash-flow growth model to analyze PV modules with thin wafers. First, we show that, comparing the current PERC with 160 um thick wafers to the high-efficiency concept with 50 um thin wafers, the capex is reduced from 0.39 to 0.2 $/(W/year) while the cost is from 0.32 to 0.2 $/W. Second, the potential of accelerated deployment is analyzed for the highefficiency thin wafer concept. We found the significant advantages of higher growth rate (~20% relative) and higher deployment plateau (~3 times) than the current PERC modules. modules with thin wafers. First, we show that, comparing the current PERC with 160 um thick wafers to the high-efficiency concept with 50 um thin wafers, the capex is reduced from 0.39 to 0.2 $/(W/year) while the cost is from 0.32 to 0.2 $/W. Second, the potential of accelerated deployment is analyzed for the highefficiency thin wafer concept. We found the significant advantages of higher growth rate (~20% relative) and higher deployment plateau (~3 times) than the current PERC modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Demand Response in Bangalore: Implications for Electricity System Operations

Recent Greening the Grid studies for India highlight the benefits of flexible resources for integrating variable renewable energy onto India’s electricity system. India’s ambitious renewable energy targets, which are particularly focused on renewable resource states such as Karnataka, will face fewer challenges when combined with new planning and operational strategies and technologies. This report explores one such strategy - demand response - by which the system operator shifts load throughout a day to minimize system wide production costs. To explore this strategy, we added demand response resources to Karnataka’s electricity system in a production cost model of India, using load shifting potential analyzed by Lawrence Berkeley National Labs. We then investigated the impacts of increasing demand response capacity under several renewable resource scenarios. Our results show the addition of demand response enables fuel shifting from high-marginal-cost and emissions-intensive subcritical coal and diesel generation to zero-marginal-cost and emissions-free renewable generation. Accordingly, the value that demand response provides to the system increases as the renewable penetration increases. In addition to reducing production costs and emissions, demand response reduces the time that thermal generators spend at their minimum output levels, which typically represents a less efficient and costlier operational state. Agricultural load shifting provides greater value to the system than residential, commercial, or industrial loads. Agricultural demand response is more flexible than other sectors because it is not exposed to subdaily operational constraints and it can operate for more hours per day without impacting customer satisfaction. Further, the first increment of demand response that is added to a system provides the greatest value; further additions provide additional benefits but have a decreasing impact. The insights we discuss could be leveraged by system planners and operators in other jurisdictions, particularly those facing significant renewable energy penetrations, to develop their own demand response programs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Elevating zero dimensional global scaling predictions to self-consistent theory-based simulations

In this work, we have developed an innovative workflow, Stability, Transport, Equilibrium, and Pedestal (STEP)-zero-dimensional (0D), within the OMFIT integrated modeling framework. Through systematic validation against the International Tokamak Physics Activity global H-mode confinement database, we demonstrated that STEP-0D, on average, predicts the energy confinement time with a mean relative error of less than 19%. Moreover, this workflow showed promising potential in predicting plasmas for proposed fusion reactors such as the affordable, robust, compact (ARC) reactor, the European demonstration power plant (EU-DEMO), and the China fusion engineering test reactor (CFETR) indicating moderate H-factors between 0.9 and 1.2. STEP-0D allows theory-based prediction of tokamak scenarios, beginning with 0D quantities. The workflow initiates with the PRO-create module, generating physically consistent plasma profiles and equilibrium using the same 0D quantities as the IPB98(y,2) confinement scaling. This sets the starting point for the STEP module, which further iterates between theory-based physics models of equilibrium, core transport, and pedestal to yield a self-consistent solution. Given these attributes, STEP-0D not only improves the accuracy of predicting plasma performance but also provides a path toward a novel fusion power plant design workflow. When integrated with engineering and costing models within an optimization, this new approach could eliminate the iterative reconciliation between plasma models of varying fidelity. This potential for a more efficient design process underpins STEP-0D's significant contribution to future fusion power plant development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2027

Market participation strategy of hybrid energy resources: A New York ISO case study

Drawing on existing market designs with independent resource participation in electricity markets, this study analyzes participation models for hybrid resources combining renewable generation and storage. Two models are considered: in the first, the components operate independently, with the Independent System Operator (ISO) managing the storage state of charge (SoC); in the second, the hybrid resource acts as an integrated unit, submitting offers as a “black box” and managing its SoC internally. Using a production cost model for the zonal New York Bulk Power System, we evaluate trade-offs in system reliability, market efficiency, and asset profitability. Our results provide several key insights for policymakers, showing that the ISO-managed granular model enhances social welfare through explicit SoC management, while the simpler integrated model is more computationally efficient, but may cause more real-time violations and lower overall profits.

Bansal, Rajni Kant↗

DOE OSTI2024

Weather Sensitive High Spatio-Temporal Resolution Transportation Electric Load Profiles For Multiple Decarbonization Pathways

Electrification of transport compounded with climate change will transform hourly load profiles and their response to weather. We present a novel approach to generating hourly electric load profiles that considers charging strategies and evolving sensitivity to temperature. The approach consists of downscaling annual state-scale sectoral load projections from the multisectoral Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) into hourly electric load profiles leveraging high resolution climate and population datasets. Profiles are developed and evaluated at the Balancing Authority scale, with a 5-year increment until 2050 over the Western U.S. Interconnect for multiple decarbonization pathways and climate scenarios. The datasets are readily available for production cost model analysis. Our open source approach is transferable to other regions.

Decarbonization, tranportation, Electric vehicle c↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimization of Archimedes Screw for Use in Hydroelectric Projects

In 2017, the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) made federal funding available to several awardees to investigate and provide innovative technological solutions to reduce capital costs of installed hydroelectric facilities at non-powered dam’s (NPD’s) across the United States, while maintaining a high level of efficiency. Awardees were to develop specific technologies that showed promise of reducing installed capital cost (ICC) by at least 20% over a given baseline and maintain a water-to-wire efficiency of at least 80% at head levels of 50 feet or less and flows of 1000 cubic feet per second (cfs) or less. Canyon Hydro (Canyon) was selected as an awardee for this funding and worked to refine the implementation of the Archimedes screw turbine for use at these site conditions. Canyon and its project partners analyzed several dam inventory datasets to determine the most common head and flow range of current NPD’s in order to best select design conditions for a turbine that would perform successfully at common heads and flows. Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) analyses were conducted after site conditions had been selected to optimize the turbine geometry for efficiency. Through this effort we were able to estimate water-to-wire efficiency over a range of flows. Equipment design focused on concepts of modularity and pre-fabricated construction. These methodologies were used where possible to reduce costly on-site construction and shorten deployment timelines. Cost modeling was conducted with input from industry experts in general construction, pre-fabricated concrete construction, and composite fabrication. As a hydroelectric turbine manufacturer of 35 years, Canyon drew upon its own knowledge base in steel fabrication, water-to-wire component specification and ancillary systems to develop the remaining cost matrix for the project. As a result of these efforts, Canyon was able to present findings that indicated a modular Archimedes screw turbine system could be designed that reduced ICC by 23.9% and maintain a maximum water-to-wire efficiency of 82.3%, meeting the goals of the project.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impacts Analysis of Amendments to Mexico's Unit Commitment and Dispatch Rules

In Mexico, there are various amendments, approved and under discussion to significantly modify the order in which generation units are committed and dispatched. This report quantifies the potential impacts on Mexico's power system, utilizing a production cost model of the Mexican power system that analyzes the hourly optimal electricity dispatch of the Mexican electricity system for 1 year under four scenarios, a reference scenario, and three alternative scenarios. These scenarios are meant to evaluate the potential impacts of increasing participation of the state-owned power plants in generation mix, electricity production costs, emissions, and renewable curtailment.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling and Market Design Considerations for Conventional and Decarbonized Resources

The following paper reviews various market design issues that will need to be reconsidered due to anticipated changes in the resources that supply energy in wholesale electricity markets. As the energy supply continues towards decarbonization, the change in resource technologies will affect the fundamentals of production scheduling and the policies to address supply variability and uncertainty. We show through simple numerical examples that the existing market design approach based on fuel costs will result in $0/MWh prices with intermittent price spikes during reserve shortages, but that incorporating more granular reserve pricing, energy storage participation, and price-responsive demand participation can restore efficient market clearing with reasonable pricing outcomes. The market design approach fundamentally shifts from fuel based to opportunity cost based. We briefly review alternative market design frameworks that can support this shift, including intraday markets, decentralized markets, flexibility options, and swing contracts. Market designs may also be required to accommodate or support various out-of-market policies and agreements; ideally, these external factors can be integrated into the market design to facilitate efficient exchanges across longer time scales, between other markets, and in support of public policy goals. The paper concludes by discussing how decarbonization trends may affect the design and use of production cost models for short term operations and long term planning studies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Inventory for Crystalline Silicon Module Recycling: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

A critical challenge for the continued expansion of photovoltaics (PV) is to develop technically feasible, inexpensive and environmentally friendly practices for handling and recycling modules at the end of their usable life. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is requested by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to collect primary data regarding the environmental performance of currently operational PV module recycling facilities in Europe. Very little has been published regarding crystalline silicon (C-Si) module recycling. Thus, much effort will be needed in direct industry outreach, collection of information and other business intelligence strategies similar to NREL's approaches for developing cost models for PV manufacturing. The goal of this work effort is to produce a detailed inventory that accounts for physical (e.g., energy, water, materials) flows through each step of a C-Si recycling process. The inventory (a life cycle inventory, or LCI) shall be designed so that it can be extended to include an accounting of costs for each process step, inputs, etc. This work effort shall leverage prior LCI data collection NREL performed for the United States Department of Energy, Solar Energy Technologies Office, under the auspices of the U.S. contribution to International Energy Agency's Photovoltaics Power Systems (PVPS) Task 12 (Environmental Health and Safety), which SETO nominated NREL to chair. The primary purpose of this work effort is to augment the prior data collection to increase the sample size of manufacturers' primary data in the LCI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Energy cost savings and expected payback for Re-tuning the controls of US Army buildings

The Headquarters Department of the Army (HQDA) sponsored a study to determine the national impact of deploying the Re-tuning™ methodology in 5 buildings types that account for over 40% of the Army’s conditioned building stock. Re-tuning is a systematic process that improves operational efficiency and reduces energy consumption at no- or low-cost through the building automation system (BAS) by correcting operational problems that plague buildings. The study relied on successful demonstration of the re-tuning methodology at 4 pilot US Army installations that informed a holistic effort that included simulating 12 individual re-tuning energy efficiency measures (EEMs) and 6 packages of EEMs in 5 selected Army building prototype models that represent 311 million ft2 (28.9 million m2) of the Army’s conditioned floor space. Both the baseline buildings and the packages were customized to capture the expected outcomes of re-tuning a diverse set of buildings. The study highlighted the benefit of individual re-tuning EEMs and economics of implementing packages of EEMs in applicable Army buildings across 16 climates and 2 building vintages. The average whole-building energy savings ranged from 10.8% to 40.5% by building type, with the company operations facility (COF) building having the highest value proposition from re-tuning. In addition, the study reveals that all large office (LO) buildings in the Army are economical to re-tune. The total modeled cost savings potential for re-tuning the five building types across the US Army is $204/1,000 sf ($220/100 m2), or $64M annually. This cost savings represents 5.6% of all the Army’s energy expenditures.

Fernandez, Nicholas EP↗

DOE OSTI2023

Wind Plant Operations and Maintenance Challenges and Research Opportunities

Global wind industry has experienced tremendous growth during the past two decades and the trend does not appear changing in near future. However, the industry is still challenged by premature component failures and high operations & maintenance (O&M) costs, which can account for up to 35% of levelized cost of energy. It is imperative for the industry to improve performance, reliability and reduce O&M costs through advanced technologies, enabled by research in related disciplines, to be competitive. This talk will first briefly discuss the challenges with wind plant O&M, then give an overview of related NREL research in the areas of performance, reliability, and O&M cost modeling, finally touch on future R&D opportunities in related areas. The authors hope some of these challenges are of interested to and can be addressed by the INFORMS community in future.

costs↗