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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities must exist; this paper offers insights critical to the future development and implementation of DSM cost estimating tools.

Foreman, Veronica L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the shortcomings of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-the-art in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority weaknesses within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities must exist; this paper offers insights critical to the future development and implementation of DSM cost estimating tools.

0↗
NASA NTRS1984

Cost prediction model for various payloads and instruments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter

The following cost parameters of the space shuttle were undertaken: (1) to develop a cost prediction model for various payload classes of instruments and experiments for the Space Shuttle Orbiter; and (2) to show the implications of various payload classes on the cost of: reliability analysis, quality assurance, environmental design requirements, documentation, parts selection, and other reliability enhancing activities.

Hoffman, F. E.↗
NASA NTRS1996

What Drives Spacecraft Cost: A Look Into How Material Characteristics Relate to the Material Complexity Multipliers

Today a variety of engineered materials are used to build the space vehicles and satellites that NASA, DOD and the aerospace community will use in future projects. These materials can be a significant part of the cost when designing and building these systems. Current cost models such as NASCOM, SEER-H and PRICE allow the cost analysis to select materials requirements during the development of the cost model. It should be noted however that some of these models do not always give the most detailed information with respect to material specifications for the given cost model. Instead the materials are defined within broad classification, giving questionable data with regard to specific material cost. It is the objective of this paper to present a summary of basic information on materials to assist the cost analyst in the development of their models. Specifically, this paper will compare materials and their complexity multipliers to some specific material properties.

Rosmait, Russell L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The Shuttle Cost and Price model

The Shuttle Cost and Price (SCP) model was developed as a tool to assist in evaluating major aspects of Shuttle operations that have direct and indirect economic consequences. It incorporates the major aspects of NASA Pricing Policy and corresponds to the NASA definition of STS operating costs. An overview of the SCP model is presented and the cost model portion of SCP is described in detail. Selected recent applications of the SCP model to NASA Pricing Policy issues are presented.

Leary, Katherine↗
DOE OSTI2026

SimH 2 : an integrated techno-economic modeling framework for hydrogen pipeline infrastructure and network optimization

Large-scale hydrogen (H 2 ) pipeline transport design and network optimization have seldom been reported due to the lack of a cost model accounting for the relationship between transport cost and hydrogen mass flow rate. Here, this work introduced a system-level cost model for hydrogen pipeline transport at supercritical state and integrated it with an existing CO 2 pipeline network tool, SimCCS, for hydrogen-specific pipeline design and optimization. The Intermountain West (I-West) region of the U.S., historically dependent on fossil fuel-based economies, is chosen to demonstrate the capabilities of our H 2 pipeline cost model and transport network optimization platform called SimH 2 . Two scenarios are examined: one where the pipeline is not allowed to pass through disadvantaged communities and the other where it is permitted. The results highlight that incorporating disadvantaged-community constraints lead to longer pipeline routes and increased transport costs, reflecting the trade-offs involved in equitable infrastructure development. It is demonstrated that the newly developed SimH 2 tool not only enables the efficient design of H 2 transportation pipelines but also optimizes the network by accounting for local terrain and the presence of disadvantaged areas.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS1988

System capacity and economic modeling computer tool for satellite mobile communications systems

A unique computer modeling tool that combines an engineering tool with a financial analysis program is described. The resulting combination yields a flexible economic model that can predict the cost effectiveness of various mobile systems. Cost modeling is necessary in order to ascertain if a given system with a finite satellite resource is capable of supporting itself financially and to determine what services can be supported. Personal computer techniques using Lotus 123 are used for the model in order to provide as universal an application as possible such that the model can be used and modified to fit many situations and conditions. The output of the engineering portion of the model consists of a channel capacity analysis and link calculations for several qualities of service using up to 16 types of earth terminal configurations. The outputs of the financial model are a revenue analysis, an income statement, and a cost model validation section.

Wiedeman, Robert A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Union: A Unified HW-SW Co-Design Ecosystem in MLIR for Evaluating Tensor Operationson Spatial Accelerators

To meet the extreme compute demands for deep learning across commercial and scientific applications, dataflow accelerators are becoming increasingly popular. While these“domain-specific” accelerators are not fully programmable like CPUs and GPUs, they retain varying levels of flexibility with respect to data orchestration, i.e., dataflow and tiling optimizations to enhance efficiency. There are several challenges when designing new algorithms and mapping approaches to execute the algorithms for a target problem on new hardware. Previous works have addressed these challenges individually. To address this challenge as a whole, in this work, we present an HW-SW co-design ecosystem for spatial accelerators called Union within the popular MLIR compiler infrastructure. Our framework allows exploring different algorithms and their mappings on several accelerator cost models. Union also includes a plug-and-play library of accelerator cost models and mappers which can easily be extended. The algorithms and accelerator cost models are connected via a novel mapping abstraction that captures the map space of spatial accelerators which can be systematically pruned based on constraints from the hardware, workload, and mapper. We demonstrate the value of Union for the community with several case studies which examine offloading different tensor operations (CONV/GEMM/Tensor Contraction) on diverse accelerator architectures using different mapping schemes.

Jeong, Geonhwa↗
NASA NTRS1992

Cost - The challenge for advanced materials and structures

Information is presented on the cost of various aircraft structures, together with methods for predicting and reducing cost. The need for the development of cost models, and of a comparative cost algorithm which could function as an engineering design tool to evaluate different design concepts, is emphasized. Efforts are underway to develop cost models that establish building-block unit cell elements that represent different material forms, geometric shapes, fabrication processes, and methods of assembly, with the purpose of expressing cost per pound or labor per pound data, with physical design and manufacture variables that a designer can visualize.

Davis, John G., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Nasa Space Flight Instruments: Cost Time Trends

Are NASA’s space flight instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? After analyzing the costs of hundreds of instruments launched over the last 30 years, the short answer to this question is no… and yes. This paper gives a visual analysis of the cost time trends for various NASA space flight instrument types, such as optical, particles detectors, fields detectors and microwave instruments. In addition to the statistical approaches utilized, such as significance tests, cluster analysis and principle components analysis (PCA), we will also discuss the intangibles which are likely at play, including technological progress, NASA policy and the luck of the draw associated with mission manifests. This analysis was performed as the main driver for the NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM) recent cost estimating model redesign. Started in 2004, the first version of NICM was based off of instruments launched from 1985-2005, or 20 years’ worth of data. As NICM hit its 10-year anniversary, we wanted to know: should NICM continue to only use the most recent 20 years’ worth of data (1995-2015)? Are instruments becoming cheaper or more expensive as time marches forward? There is evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value across some instrument types, but little in others. Whereas further research is needed to substantiate, Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types show moderate to strong evidence of a downward trend in dollar-per-kg. Further research is required to study the nature of this trend (shift, taper, cyclic, etc.). Little evidence for a similar downward trend was detected for Fields or Microwave instruments, or Optical instruments on Earth Orbiting spacecraft. We presented evidence in favor of a drop in the median dollar-per-kg value for Particles and Optical-Planetary instrument types. While similar evidence was weak at best for Fields and Microwave instruments. We can speculate as to the causes for this effect, but we are also equipped to begin to rule out, or at least prioritize, some of the suspected drivers. We observed, for Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments, that perhaps a launch manifest effect was playing part of the role in the observed decrease in dollar-per-kg over the years, noting that the more flagship class missions, which have more money to spend on their instruments, were seen in the earlier years in our data, versus the later years which were dominated by less expensive class missions. However, if this were a dominating driver, would we not have seen the downward trend in the Fields and Microwave instruments as well, which were drawn from that same launch manifest? The fact that we did not observe this helps us rule out the launch manifest effect, and other drivers, such as advances in technology, that seem to be more likely suspects. In that case, however, why would technology advances be helping the Particles and Optical-Planetary instruments only? Why would it not be impacting Optical-Earth Orbiting instruments? Further suspects were looked at as well and ruled out, such as the “Faster, Better, Cheaper”era of NASA development which did not seem to actually impact trends by instrument type on a dollar-perkg scale. VI. Future Work A. Time Series Detailed Statistical Assessment The analysis discussed above sets the foundation for a more rigorous time series analysis of the data. Time series analysis will further explore evidence to-date of time trends for the instrument types which showed the strongest indicators for a decrease in dollar-per-kg: Optical (Planetary) and Particles instruments. More than providing evidence and top-level significance tests, time series analysis would help elucidate what kind of trend that exists in the data, their significance and allow statistically based forecasting (see Figure 10)

Mrozinksi, Joseph↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Dangers of Parametrics

Building a parametric cost model is hard work. The data is noisy and often does not behave like we want it to. We need statistics to give us an indication of the goodness of our models, but; statistics can be manipulated and mislead. On top of all of that, our own very human biases can lead us astray; causing us to see patterns in the noise and draw false conclusions from the data. Yet, it is the data itself that is the foundation for making better cost estimates and cost models. I believe the mistake we often make is we believe that our models are representative of the data; that our models summarize the experiences, the knowledge, and the stories contained in the data. However, it is the opposite that is true. Our models are but imitations of reality. They give us trends, but not truth. The experiences, the knowledge, and the stories that we need in order to make good cost estimates is bound up in the data. You cannot separate good cost estimating from a knowledge of the historical data. One final thought. It is our attempts to make sense out of the randomness that leads us astray. In order to make progress as cost modelers and cost estimators, we must accept that there are real limitations on our ability to model the past and predict the future. I do not believe we should throw up our hands and say this is the best we can do. Rather, to see real improvement we must first recognize these limitations, avoid the easy but misleading solutions, and seek to find ways to better model the world we live in. I don't have any simple solutions. Perhaps the answers lie in better data or in a totally different approach to simulating how the world works. All I know is that we must do our best to speak truth to ourselves and our customers. Misleading ourselves and our customers will, in the end, result in an inability to have a positive impact on those we serve.

Prince, Frank A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Dangers of Parametrics

Building a parametric cost model is hard work. The data is noisy and often does not behave like we want it to. We need statistics to give us an indication of the goodness of our models, but; statistics can be manipulated and mislead. On top of all of that, our own very human biases can lead us astray; causing us to see patterns in the noise and draw false conclusions from the data. Yet, it is the data itself that is the foundation for making better cost estimates and cost models. I believe the mistake we often make is we believe that our models are representative of the data; that our models summarize the experiences, the knowledge, and the stories contained in the data. However, it is the opposite that is true. Our models are but imitations of reality. They give us trends, but not truth. The experiences, the knowledge, and the stories that we need in order to make good cost estimates is bound up in the data. You cannot separate good cost estimating from a knowledge of the historical data. One final thought. It is our attempts to make sense out of the randomness that leads us astray. In order to make progress as cost modelers and cost estimators, we must accept that there are real limitations on our ability to model the past and predict the future. I do not believe we should throw up our hands and say this is the best we can do. Rather, to see real improvement we must first recognize these limitations, avoid the easy but misleading solutions, and seek to find ways to better model the world we live in. I don't have any simple solutions. Perhaps the answers lie in better data or in a totally different approach to simulating how the world works. All I know is that we must do our best to speak truth to ourselves and our customers. Misleading ourselves and our customers will, in the end, result in an inability to have a positive impact on those we serve.

Prince, Frank A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intermountain West Energy Sustainability & Transitions Initiative: CO2 Transport and Geologic Storage Modeling Results

These resources provide the full set of cost modeling results and methods as part of the I-WEST Roadmap Initiative that were used to compile figures as part of the "Pathways to CO2 Utilization and Storage for the Intermountain West Region" chapter. The data were generated from a series of National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) cost models and relate to carbon dioxide (CO2) transport costs, CO2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) economics, and saline storage economics. These models were used to analyze various business cases given changes in technical and financial assumptions for the I-WEST region as a means to explore how these assumptions influence CO2 transport and storage costs, as well as to evaluate the effect of changing oil prices on the viability of CO2-EOR and the mass of CO2 stored via CO2-EOR. The accompanying report titled "Intermountain West Energy Sustainability & Transitions Initiative: CO2 Transport and Geologic Storage Modeling Results" provides a detailed overview on the models, assumptions, and parameters used in the modeling, as well as example results..

CO2 EOR costs,CO2 Storage Costs,CO2 transportation↗
NASA NTRS2006

Software Development Cost Estimation Executive Summary

Identify simple fully validated cost models that provide estimation uncertainty with cost estimate. Based on COCOMO variable set. Use machine learning techniques to determine: a) Minimum number of cost drivers required for NASA domain based cost models; b) Minimum number of data records required and c) Estimation Uncertainty. Build a repository of software cost estimation information. Coordinating tool development and data collection with: a) Tasks funded by PA&E Cost Analysis; b) IV&V Effort Estimation Task and c) NASA SEPG activities.

data mining↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Opportunity in Commercial Approaches for Future NASA Deep Space Exploration Elements

In 2011, NASA released a report assessing the market for commercial crew and cargo services to low Earth orbit (LEO). The report stated that NASA had spent a few hundred million dollars in the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program on the portion related to the development of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle. Yet a NASA cost model predicted the cost would have been significantly more with a non-commercial cost-plus contracting approach. By 2016 a NASA request for information stated it must "maximize the efficiency and sustainability of the Exploration Systems development programs", as "critical to free resources for reinvestment...such as other required deep space exploration capabilities." This work joins the previous two events, showing the potential for commercial, public private partnerships, modeled on programs like COTS, to reduce the cost to NASA significantly for "...other required deep space exploration capabilities." These other capabilities include landers, stages and more. We mature the concept of "costed baseball cards", adding cost estimates to NASA's space systems "baseball cards." We show some potential costs, including analysis, the basis of estimates, data sources and caveats to address a critical question - based on initial assessment, are significant agency resources justified for more detailed analysis and due diligence to understand and invest in public private partnerships for human deep space exploration systems? The cost analysis spans commercial to cost-plus contracting approaches, for smaller elements vs. larger, with some variation for lunar or Mars. By extension, we delve briefly into the potentially much broader significance of the individual cost estimates if taken together as a NASA investment portfolio where public private partnership are stitched together for deep space exploration. How might multiple improvements in individual systems add up to NASA human deep space exploration achievements, realistically, affordably, sustainably, in a relevant timeframe?

cost modeling estimation↗
NASA NTRS1995

O/S analysis of conceptual space vehicles

The application of recently developed computer models in determining operational capabilities and support requirements during the conceptual design of proposed space systems is discussed. The models used are the reliability and maintainability (R&M) model, the maintenance simulation model, and the operations and support (O&S) cost model. In the process of applying these models, the R&M and O&S cost models were updated. The more significant enhancements include (1) improved R&M equations for the tank subsystems, (2) the ability to allocate schedule maintenance by subsystem, (3) redefined spares calculations, (4) computing a weighted average of the working days and mission days per month, (5) the use of a position manning factor, and (6) the incorporation into the O&S model of new formulas for computing depot and organizational recurring and nonrecurring training costs and documentation costs, and depot support equipment costs. The case study used is based upon a winged, single-stage, vertical-takeoff vehicle (SSV) designed to deliver to the Space Station Freedom (SSF) a 25,000 lb payload including passengers without a crew.

Ebeling, Charles E.↗