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At least 235 records · Page 13

Improving the Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning man), program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility.

Piland, William M.↗

Space shuttle/payload interface analysis (study 2.4). Volume 1: Executive summary

The space shuttle/payload interface analysis is presented. The analysis consists of the following sections: (1) payload capture and cost analysis, (2) business risk and value of operations in space analysis, and (3) payload community analysis. The primary objective of the study was to furnish a method for tracing capture/cost analyses conducted by other study groups.

Pritchard, E. I.↗

Process Research ON Semix Silicon Materials (PROSSM)

A cost effective process sequence was identified, equipment was designed to implement a 6.6 MW per year automated production line, and a cost analysis projected a $0.56 per watt cell add-on cost for this line. Four process steps were developed for this program: glass beads back clean-up, hot spray antireflective coating, wave soldering of fronts, and ion milling for edging. While spray dopants were advertised as an off the shelf developed product, they were unreliable with shorter than advertised shelf life.

Wohlgemuth, J. H.↗

What Drives Spacecraft Cost: A Look Into How Material Characteristics Relate to the Material Complexity Multipliers

Today a variety of engineered materials are used to build the space vehicles and satellites that NASA, DOD and the aerospace community will use in future projects. These materials can be a significant part of the cost when designing and building these systems. Current cost models such as NASCOM, SEER-H and PRICE allow the cost analysis to select materials requirements during the development of the cost model. It should be noted however that some of these models do not always give the most detailed information with respect to material specifications for the given cost model. Instead the materials are defined within broad classification, giving questionable data with regard to specific material cost. It is the objective of this paper to present a summary of basic information on materials to assist the cost analyst in the development of their models. Specifically, this paper will compare materials and their complexity multipliers to some specific material properties.

Rosmait, Russell L.↗

Life cycle cost modeling of conceptual space vehicles

This paper documents progress to date by the University of Dayton on the development of a life cycle cost model for use during the conceptual design of new launch vehicles and spacecraft. This research is being conducted under NASA Research Grant NAG-1-1327. This research effort changes the focus from that of the first two years in which a reliability and maintainability model was developed to the initial development of a life cycle cost model. Cost categories are initially patterned after NASA's three axis work breakdown structure consisting of a configuration axis (vehicle), a function axis, and a cost axis. The focus will be on operations and maintenance costs and other recurring costs. Secondary tasks performed concurrent with the development of the life cycle costing model include continual support and upgrade of the R&M model. The primary result of the completed research will be a methodology and a computer implementation of the methodology to provide for timely cost analysis in support of the conceptual design activities. The major objectives of this research are: to obtain and to develop improved methods for estimating manpower, spares, software and hardware costs, facilities costs, and other cost categories as identified by NASA personnel; to construct a life cycle cost model of a space transportation system for budget exercises and performance-cost trade-off analysis during the conceptual and development stages; to continue to support modifications and enhancements to the R&M model; and to continue to assist in the development of a simulation model to provide an integrated view of the operations and support of the proposed system.

Ebeling, Charles↗

Analysis of Advanced Modular Power Systems (AMPS) for Deep Space Exploration

The Advanced Modular Power Systems (AMPS) project is developing a modular approach to spacecraft power systems for exploration beyond Earth orbit. AMPS is intended to meet the need of reducing the cost of design development, test and integration and also reducing the operational logistics cost of supporting exploration missions. AMPS seeks to establish modular power building blocks with standardized electrical, mechanical, thermal and data interfaces that can be applied across multiple exploration vehicles. The presentation discusses the results of a cost analysis that compares the cost of the modular approach against a traditional non-modular approach.

Exploration↗

A study of two statistical methods as applied to shuttle solid rocket booster expenditures

The state probability technique and the Monte Carlo technique are applied to finding shuttle solid rocket booster expenditure statistics. For a given attrition rate per launch, the probable number of boosters needed for a given mission of 440 launches is calculated. Several cases are considered, including the elimination of the booster after a maximum of 20 consecutive launches. Also considered is the case where the booster is composed of replaceable components with independent attrition rates. A simple cost analysis is carried out to indicate the number of boosters to build initially, depending on booster costs. Two statistical methods were applied in the analysis: (1) state probability method which consists of defining an appropriate state space for the outcome of the random trials, and (2) model simulation method or the Monte Carlo technique. It was found that the model simulation method was easier to formulate while the state probability method required less computing time and was more accurate.

Perlmutter, M.↗

Study of Multimission Modular Spacecraft (MMS) propulsion requirements

The cost effectiveness of various propulsion technologies for shuttle-launched multimission modular spacecraft (MMS) missions was determined with special attention to the potential role of ion propulsion. The primary criterion chosen for comparison for the different types of propulsion technologies was the total propulsion related cost, including the Shuttle charges, propulsion module costs, upper stage costs, and propulsion module development. In addition to the cost comparison, other criteria such as reliability, risk, and STS compatibility are examined. Topics covered include MMS mission models, propulsion technology definition, trajectory/performance analysis, cost assessment, program evaluation, sensitivity analysis, and conclusions and recommendations.

Fischer, N. H.↗

Auxiliary propulsion

When man is put in the loop, almost anything can happen. Caution must be exercised in permitting life cycle costs analysis to control technology investment. One of the ways of reducing cost is to stay with the old tried and true technology. However, when requirements of a permanent space station are considered (15-year life, the issues associated with health monitoring, maintenance, and repair), the conclusion is that very little, if anything, is really state of the art. Before investing in old technologies to make them comply with the requirements of a permanent space station, the question of whether or not it is worth putting the money there as opposed to advancing the state of the art should be considered. Program managers and system designers must not make the mistake of selecting old technologies in the belief that they are state of the art.

Rosenberg, S. D.↗

Life sciences payload definition and integration study. Volume 2: Requirements, design, and planning studies for the carry-on laboratories

The task phase concerned with the requirements, design, and planning studies for the carry-on laboratory (COL) began with a definition of biomedical research areas and candidate research equipment, and then went on to develop conceptual layouts for COL which were each evaluated in order to arrive at a final conceptual design. Each step in this design/evaluation process concerned itself with man/systems integration research and hardware, and life support and protective systems research and equipment selection. COL integration studies were also conducted and include attention to electrical power and data management requirements, operational considerations, and shuttle/Spacelab interface specifications. A COL program schedule was compiled, and a cost analysis was finalized which takes into account work breakdown, annual funding, and cost reduction guidelines.

Source record↗

Solidification under zero gravity: A Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) experiment for an early space shuttle mission

Project planning for two series of simple experiments on the effect of zero gravity on the melting and freezing of metals and nonmetals is described. The experiments will be performed in the Long Duration Exposure Facility, and their purpose will be to study: (1) the general morphology of metals and nonmetals during solidification, (2) the location of ullage space (liquid-vapor interfaces), and (3) the magnitude of surface tension driven convection during solidification of metals and nonmetals. The preliminary design of the experiments is presented. Details of the investigative approach, experimental procedure, experimental hardware, data reduction and analysis, and anticipated results are given. In addition a work plan and cost analysis are provided.

Bailey, J. A.↗

Polycrystalline silicon study: Low-cost silicon refining technology prospects and semiconductor-grade polycrystalline silicon availability through 1988

Photovoltaic arrays that convert solar energy into electrical energy can become a cost effective bulk energy generation alternative, provided that an adequate supply of low cost materials is available. One of the key requirements for economic photovoltaic cells is reasonably priced silicon. At present, the photovoltaic industry is dependent upon polycrystalline silicon refined by the Siemens process primarily for integrated circuits, power devices, and discrete semiconductor devices. This dependency is expected to continue until the DOE sponsored low cost silicon refining technology developments have matured to the point where they are in commercial use. The photovoltaic industry can then develop its own source of supply. Silicon material availability and market pricing projections through 1988 are updated based on data collected early in 1984. The silicon refining industry plans to meet the increasing demands of the semiconductor device and photovoltaic product industries are overviewed. In addition, the DOE sponsored technology research for producing low cost polycrystalline silicon, probabilistic cost analysis for the two most promising production processes for achieving the DOE cost goals, and the impacts of the DOE photovoltaics program silicon refining research upon the commercial polycrystalline silicon refining industry are addressed.

Costogue, E. N.↗

Validated Feasibility Study of Integrally Stiffened Metallic Fuselage Panels for Reducing Manufacturing Costs: Cost Assessment of Manufacturing/Design Concepts

The objective of the Integral Airframe Structures (IAS) program was to demonstrate, for an integrally stiffened structural concept, performance and weight equal to "built-up" structure with lower manufacturing cost. This report presents results of the cost assessment for several design configuration/manufacturing method combinations. The attributes of various cost analysis models were evaluated and COSTRAN selected for this study. A process/design cost evaluation matrix was developed based on material, forming, machining, and assembly of structural sub-elements and assembled structure. A hybrid design, made from high-speed machined extruded frames that are mechanically fastened to high-speed machined plate skin/stringer panels, was identified as the most cost-effective manufacturing solution. Recurring labor and material costs of the hybrid design are up to 61 percent less than the current built-up technology baseline. This would correspond to a total cost reduction of $1.7 million per ship set for a 777-sized airplane. However, there are important outstanding issues with regard to the cost of capacity of high technology machinery, and the ability to cost-effectively provide surface finish acceptable to the commercial aircraft industry. The projected high raw material cost of large extrusions also played an important role in the trade-off between plate and extruded concepts.

Metschan, S.↗

Analysis of space tug operating techniques. Volume 2: Study results

The design requirements for space tug systems and cost analysis of the refurbishment phases are discussed. The vehicle is an integral propulsion stage using liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen as propellants and is capable of operating either as a fully or a partially autonomous vehicle. Structural features are an integral liquid hydrogen tank, a liquid oxygen tank, a meteoroid shield, an aft conical docking and structural support ring, and a staged combustion main engine. The vehicle is constructed of major modules for ease of maintenance. Line drawings and block diagrams are included to explain the maintenance requirements for the subsystems.

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Feasibility study of an Integrated Program for Aerospace vehicle Design (IPAD) Volume 7: IPAD benefits and impact

The potential benefits, impact and spinoff of IPAD technology are described. The benefits are projected from a flowtime and labor cost analysis of the design process and a study of the flowtime and labor cost savings being experienced with existing integrated systems. Benefits in terms of designer productivity, company effectiveness, and IPAD as a national resource are developed. A description is given of the potential impact of information handling as an IPAD technology, upon task and organization structure and people who use IPAD. Spinoff of IPAD technology to nonaerospace industries is discussed. The results of a personal survey made of aerospace, nonaerospace, government and university sources are given.

Hansen, S. D.↗

A study of space station needs, attributes and architectural options, volume 2, technical. Book 3: Economic benefits, costs and programmatics

The economic benefits, cost analysis, and industrial uses of the manned space station are investigated. Mission payload costs are examined in relation to alternative architectures and projected technological evolution. Various approaches to industrial involvement for financing, development, and marketing of space station resources are described.

Source record↗

MSAT mobile electronically steered phased array antenna development

The Mobile Satellite Experiment (MSAT-X) breadboard antenna design demonstrates the feasibility of using a phased array in a mobile satellite application. An electronically steerable phased array capable of tracking geosynchronous satellites from anywhere in the Continental United States has been developed. The design is reviewed along with the test data. Cost analysis are presented which indicate that this design can be produced at a cost of $1620 per antenna.

Schmidt, Fred↗