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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

FORECASTOR – II. Simulating galaxy surveys with the Cosmological Advanced Survey Telescope for Optical and UV Research

The Cosmological Advanced Survey Telescope for Optical and UV Research (CASTOR) is a planned flagship space telescope, covering the blue-optical and UV part of the spectrum. Here, we introduce the CASTOR image simulator, a python GalSim package-based script capable of generating mock CASTOR images from an input catalogue. We generate example images from the CASTOR Wide, Deep, and Ultra-Deep surveys using simulated lightcones from the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model. We make predictions for the performance of these surveys by comparing galaxies that are extracted from each image using Source Extractor to the input catalogue. We find that the Wide, Deep, and Ultra-Deep surveys will be 75 per cent complete for point sources down to $\sim 27$, 29, and 30 mag, respectively, in the UV, u, and g filters, with the UV-split and u-split filters reaching a shallower depth. With a large area of $\sim 2200$ deg$^2$, the Wide survey will detect hundreds of millions of galaxies out to $z\sim 4$, mostly with $M_\ast \gtrsim 10^{9}\,{\rm M}_{\odot }$. The Ultra-Deep survey will probe to $z\sim 5$, detecting galaxies with $M_\ast \gtrsim 10^{7}{\rm M}_{\odot }$. These galaxy samples will enable precision measurements of the distribution of star formation in the cosmic web, connecting the growth of stellar mass to the assembly of dark matter haloes over two thirds of the history of the Universe, and other core goals of CASTOR’s legacy surveys. These image simulations and the tools developed to generate them will be a vital planning tool to estimate CASTOR’s performance and iterate the telescope and survey designs prior to launch.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The LSST DESC DC2 Simulated Sky Survey

Here, we describe the simulated sky survey underlying the second data challenge (DC2) carried out in preparation for analysis of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC). Significant connections across multiple science domains will be a hallmark of LSST; the DC2 program represents a unique modeling effort that stresses this interconnectivity in a way that has not been attempted before. This effort encompasses a full end-to-end approach: starting from a large N-body simulation, through setting up LSST-like observations including realistic cadences, through image simulations, and finally processing with Rubin's LSST Science Pipelines. This last step ensures that we generate data products resembling those to be delivered by the Rubin Observatory as closely as is currently possible. The simulated DC2 sky survey covers six optical bands in a wide-fast-deep area of approximately 300 deg 2 , as well as a deep drilling field of approximately 1 deg 2 . We simulate 5 yr of the planned 10 yr survey. The DC2 sky survey has multiple purposes. First, the LSST DESC working groups can use the data set to develop a range of DESC analysis pipelines to prepare for the advent of actual data. Second, it serves as a realistic test bed for the image processing software under development for LSST by the Rubin Observatory. In particular, simulated data provide a controlled way to investigate certain image-level systematic effects. Finally, the DC2 sky survey enables the exploration of new scientific ideas in both static and time domain cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting the dark matter-baryon abundance ratio

We discuss relaxation solutions to the dark matter-baryon coincidence problem in the context of QCD axion dark matter. In relaxation solutions, a moduli dynamically adjusts the mass of dark matter and baryons until their energy densities are 𝒪⁡(1) the same. Because the QCD axion is heavily connected to QCD, scanning the QCD axion mass inherently also scans the proton mass. In the context of relaxation solutions, this implies that the ratio of dark matter to baryon abundances (Ω DM /Ω B ) is a ratio of beta functions showing that these models can only accommodate discrete values of ΩDM/ΩB thereby “predicting” the ratio of the dark matter to baryon abundances. The original composite axion model has only a single integer degree of freedom 𝑁, the size of the gauge group, and we show that when 𝑁 =8 the observed value of Ω DM /Ω B =5.36 is reproduced to within its percent level error bars. Novel tests of this model include more precise measurements of Ω DM /Ω B , a better lattice determination of the dependence of the proton mass on the high energy QCD gauge coupling, as well as more traditional tests such as fifth force experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Galaxy-Halo connection using machine learning

We investigate the potential of machine learning (ML) methods to model small-scale galaxy clustering for constraining Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) parameters. Our analysis reveals that while many ML algorithms report good statistical fits, they often yield likelihood contours that are significantly biased in both mean values and variances relative to the true model parameters. This highlights the importance of careful data processing and algorithm selection in ML applications for galaxy clustering, as even seemingly robust methods can lead to biased results if not applied correctly. ML tools offer a promising approach to exploring the HOD parameter space with significantly reduced computational costs compared to traditional brute-force methods if their robustness is established. Using our ANN-based pipeline, we successfully recreate some standard results from recent literature. Properly restricting the HOD parameter space, transforming the training data, and carefully selecting ML algorithms are essential for achieving unbiased and robust predictions. Among the methods tested, artificial neural networks (ANNs) outperform random forests (RF) and ridge regression in predicting clustering statistics, when the HOD prior space is appropriately restricted. We demonstrate these findings using the projected two-point correlation function (w p (r p )), angular multipoles of the correlation function (ξ ℓ (r)), and the void probability function (VPF) of Luminous Red Galaxies from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument mocks. Our results show that while combining w p (r p ) and VPF improves parameter constraints, adding the multipoles ξ 0 , ξ 2 , and ξ 4 to w p (r p ) does not significantly improve the constraints.

cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenges of standard halo models in constraining galaxy properties from cosmic infrared background anisotropies

The halo model, combined with halo occupation distribution (HOD) prescriptions, is widely used to interpret cosmic infrared background (CIB) anisotropies and extract physical information about star-forming galaxies and their connection to large-scale structures. Recent CIB-specific implementations of the halo model have adopted more physical parameterizations. However, the extent to which these models can reliably recover meaningful physical parameters remains uncertain. We assessed whether the current parameterization of CIB halo models is sufficient to recover astrophysical quantities, such as star formation efficiency, η(M h , z), and halo mass at which the peak of star formation efficiency occurs, M max , when fit to mock data. We also assessed whether discrepancies arise from assumptions about galaxy emission (the HOD ingredients) or from more fundamental components in the halo model, such as bias and matter clustering. We fit the M21 CIB HOD model, implemented within the halo model framework, to mock CIB power spectra and star formation rate density (SFRD) data generated from the SIDES-Uchuu simulation, and compared the best-fit parameters to the known simulation inputs. We then repeated the analysis using a simplified version of the simulation (SSU), explicitly designed to match the HOD assumptions. A detailed comparison of model and simulation outputs was carried out to trace the origin of observed discrepancies. While the M21 HOD model provides a good fit to the mock data, it failed to recover the intrinsic parameters accurately, particularly the halo mass at which star formation efficiency peaks. This mismatch persists even when fitting data generated with the same model assumptions. We find strong agreement (within 5%) in the emission-related components (SFRD, emissivity), but observe a scale- and redshift-dependent offset exceeding 20% in the two-halo term of the CIB power spectrum. This likely arises from limitations in the treatment of halo bias and matter clustering within the linear approximation. Additionally, incorporating scatter in the SFR–halo mass relation and the spectral energy distribution (SED) templates significantly affects the shot noise (∼50%), but has only a modest impact (less than 10%) on the clustered component. These results suggest that recovering physical parameters from CIB clustering requires improvements to the cosmological ingredients of the halo model framework, such as adopting scale-dependent halo bias and nonlinear matter power spectra in addition to careful modeling of emission physics.

cosmic background radiation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Differentiable Predictions for Large Scale Structure with SHAMNet

In simulation-based models of the galaxy-halo connection, theoretical predictions for galaxy clustering and lensing are typically made based on Monte Carlo realizations of a mock universe. In this paper, we use Subhalo Abundance Matching (SHAM) as a toy model to introduce an alternative to stochastic predictions based on mock population, demonstrating how to make simulation-based predictions for clustering and lensing that are both exact and differentiable with respect to the parameters of the model. Conventional implementations of SHAM are based on iterative algorithms such as Richardson-Lucy deconvolution; here we use the JAX library for automatic differentiation to train SHAMNet, a neural network that accurately approximates the stellar-to-halo mass relation (SMHM) defined by abundance matching. In our approach to making differentiable predictions of large-scale structure, we map parameterized PDFs onto each simulated halo, and calculate gradients of summary statistics of the galaxy distribution by using autodiff to propagate the gradients of the SMHM through the statistical estimators used to measure one- and two-point functions. Our techniques are quite general, and we conclude with an overview of how they can be applied in tandem with more complex, higher-dimensional models, creating the capability to make differentiable predictions for the multi-wavelength universe of galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probing the galaxy–halo connection with total satellite luminosity

ABSTRACT We demonstrate how the total luminosity in satellite galaxies is a powerful probe of dark matter haloes around central galaxies. The method cross-correlates central galaxies in spectroscopic galaxy samples with fainter galaxies detected in photometric surveys. Using models, we show that the total galaxy luminosity, Lsat, scales linearly with host halo mass, making Lsat an excellent proxy for Mh. Lsat is also sensitive to the formation time of the halo. We demonstrate that probes of galaxy large-scale environment can break this degeneracy. Although this is an indirect probe of the halo, it yields a high signal-to-noise ratio measurement for galaxies expected to occupy haloes at <1012 M⊙, where other methods suffer from larger errors. In this paper, we focus on observational and theoretical systematics in the Lsat method. We test the robustness of our method of finding central galaxies and our methods of estimating the number of background galaxies. We implement this method on galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data, with satellites identified in fainter imaging data. We find excellent agreement between our theoretical predictions and the observational measurements. Finally, we compare our Lsat measurements to weak lensing estimates of Mh for red and blue subsamples. In the stellar mass range where the measurements overlap, we find consistent results, where red galaxies live in larger haloes. However, the Lsat approach allows us to probe significantly lower mass galaxies. At these masses, the Lsat values are equivalent. This example shows the potential of Lsat as a probe of dark haloes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The DESI One-Percent Survey: A Concise Model for the Galactic Conformity of Emission-line Galaxies

Galactic conformity is the phenomenon whereby a galaxy of a certain physical property is correlated with its neighbors of the same property, implying a possible causal relationship. Here, the observed auto correlations of emission-line galaxies (ELGs) from the highly complete DESI One-Percent Survey exhibit a strong clustering signal on small scales, providing clear evidence for the conformity effect of ELGs. Building upon the original subhalo abundance-matching (SHAM) method developed by Gao et al., we propose a concise conformity model to improve the ELG–halo connection. In this model, the number of satellite ELGs is boosted by a factor of ~5 in the halos whose central galaxies are ELGs. We show that the mean ELG satellite number in such central halos is still smaller than 1 and that the model does not significantly increase the overall satellite fraction. With this model, we can well recover the ELG auto correlations to the smallest scales explored with the current data (i.e., r p > 0.03 Mpc h –1 in real space and at s > 0.3 Mpc h –1 in redshift space), while the cross correlations between luminous red galaxies and ELGs are nearly unchanged. Although our SHAM model has only eight parameters, we further verify that it can accurately describe the ELG clustering in the entire redshift range from z = 0.8 to 1.6. We therefore expect that this method can be used to generate high-quality ELG lightcone mocks for DESI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraining galaxy–halo connection with high-order statistics

ABSTRACT We investigate using three-point statistics in constraining the galaxy–halo connection. We show that for some galaxy samples, the constraints on the halo occupation distribution parameters are dominated by the three-point function signal (over its two-point counterpart). We demonstrate this on mock catalogues corresponding to the Luminous red galaxies (LRGs), Emission-line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars (QSOs) targeted by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Survey. The projected three-point function for triangle sides less up to 20 h−1 Mpc measured from a cubic Gpc of data can constrain the characteristic minimum mass of the LRGs with a preci sion of 0.46 per cent. For comparison, similar constraints from the projected two-point function are 1.55 per cent. The improvements for the ELGs and QSOs targets are more modest. In the case of the QSOs, it is caused by the high shot-noise of the sample, and in the case of the ELGs, it is caused by the range of halo masses of the host haloes. The most time-consuming part of our pipeline is the measurement of the three-point functions. We adopt a tabulation method, proposed in earlier works for the two-point function, to significantly reduce the required compute time for the three-point analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Search for Successful and Choked Jets in Nearby Broad-lined Type Ic Supernovae

The observational link between long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and broad-lined stripped-envelope core-collapse supernovae (SNe Ic-BL) is well established. Significant progress has been made in constraining what fraction of SNe Ic-BL may power high- or low-luminosity GRBs when viewed at small off-axis angles. However, the GRB–SN connection still lacks a complete understanding in the broader context of massive-star evolution and explosion physics. Models predict a continuum of outcomes for the fastest ejecta, from choked to ultrarelativistic jets, and observations from radio to X-rays are key to probing these scenarios across a range of viewing angles and velocities. Here, we present results from a coordinated radio-to-X-ray campaign targeting nearby (z ≲ 0.1) SNe Ic-BL designed to explore this diversity. With eight new radio-monitored events and updated data for one previously observed SN, we further tighten constraints on the fraction of SNe Ic-BL as relativistic as SN 1998bw (GRB 980425). We identify SN 2024rjw as a new radio-loud event likely powered by strong interaction with circumstellar material, and add evidence supporting a similar interpretation for SN 2020jqm. We also establish new limits on the properties of radio-emitting ejecta with velocities consistent with cocoons from choked jets, highlighting SN 2022xxf as a promising cocoon-dominated candidate. These results refine our understanding of the continuum linking ordinary SNe Ic-BL, engine-driven explosions, and GRBs, and contribute to building a sample that will inform future multimessenger searches for electromagnetic counterparts to high-energy neutrinos.

O’Dwyer, Tanner [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, M↗
DOE OSTI2025

An apologia for islands

Entanglement islands have played a key role in the recent derivation of the Page curve and other progress on the black hole information problem. Arising from the inclusion of connected wormhole saddles in a gravitational replica trick, islands signal that degrees of freedom in the black hole interior are not microscopically independent of the exterior Hawking radiation. Islands were originally discovered in the context of AdS/CFT coupled to an external, nongravitating reservoir, where the coupling gives graviton excitations an anomalous boundary scaling dimension (or “mass”). It has been claimed in the literature that this mass is crucial for the existence of islands and even the Page curve itself. In this paper, however, we explain how entanglement islands can also appear in setups with massless gravitons and no external reservoir, giving a number of examples including the entanglement wedges of boundary CFT regions, of radiation at null infinity in asymptotically flat spacetimes, and of radiation inside a semiclassical but gravitating spacetime. In each case, the Page curve is physically observable and can be determined with sufficiently careful experiments on many copies of the black hole. We give general arguments for the existence of gauge-invariant operators in gravity which are compactly supported to all orders in perturbation theory (whenever no isometries of the background spacetime exist) and refine a recently-proposed explicit construction of such operators. When applied to islands, these results — together with entanglement wedge reconstruction — guarantee that semiclassical operators in the island can be approximated by nonperturbative operators on the Hawking radiation.

AdS-CFT Correspondence↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring the connection between compact object mergers and fast X-ray transients

Context. The connection between compact object mergers and some extragalactic fast X-ray transients (FXRTs) has long been hypothesised but never ultimately established. Aims. In this work, we investigate two FXRTs, the LEIA X-ray Transient LXT 240402A and the Einstein Probe EP 250207b, whose precise positions lie close to nearby (z ≲ 0.1) quiescent galaxies with a negligible probability of chance coincidence, identifying them as particularly promising cases of merger-driven explosions in the local Universe. Methods. We used Chandra to derive accurate localisations for both events and secure otherwise ambiguous associations with their optical counterparts. Deep optical and near-infrared observations with VLT, GTC, and LBT were performed to characterise the surrounding environment and search for kilonova emission, the hallmark of neutron star mergers. Complementary early-time X-ray monitoring with Swift and Einstein Probe was used to constrain the non-thermal afterglow. Results. We find that both FXRTs remain compatible with a compact binary merger progenitor, which produced low-mass ejecta and kilonova emission subdominant to the afterglow. However, alternative explanations such as a distant (z ≳ 1) core-collapse supernova cannot be conclusively ruled out.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

COMAP Early Science. V. Constraints and Forecasts at z ~ 3

We present the current state of models for the z ~ 3 carbon monoxide (CO) line intensity signal targeted by the CO Mapping Array Project (COMAP) Pathfinder in the context of its early science results. Our fiducial model, relating dark matter halo properties to CO luminosities, informs parameter priors with empirical models of the galaxy–halo connection and previous CO (1–0) observations. The Pathfinder early science data spanning wavenumbers k = 0.051–0.62 Mpc –1 represent the first direct 3D constraint on the clustering component of the CO (1–0) power spectrum. Our 95% upper limit on the redshift-space clustering amplitude A clust ≲ 70 μK 2 greatly improves on the indirect upper limit of 420 μK 2 reported from the CO Power Spectrum Survey (COPSS) measurement at k ~ 1 Mpc –1 . The COMAP limit excludes a subset of models from previous literature and constrains interpretation of the COPSS results, demonstrating the complementary nature of COMAP and interferometric CO surveys. Using line bias expectations from our priors, we also constrain the squared mean line intensity–bias product, ${\left\langle {Tb}\right\rangle }_{2}$ ≲ 50 μK 2 , and the cosmic molecular gas density, ρ H2 < 2.5 × 10 8 M ⊙ Mpc –3 (95% upper limits). Based on early instrument performance and our current CO signal estimates, we forecast that the 5 yr Pathfinder campaign will detect the CO power spectrum with overall signal-to-noise ratio of 9–17. Between then and now, we also expect to detect the CO–galaxy cross-spectrum using overlapping galaxy survey data, enabling enhanced inferences of cosmic star formation and galaxy evolution history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The DESI One-percent Survey: Evidence for Assembly Bias from Low-redshift Counts-in-cylinders Measurements

Abstract We explore the galaxy-halo connection information that is available in low-redshift samples from the early data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We model the halo occupation distribution (HOD) from z = 0.1 to 0.3 using Survey Validation 3 (SV3; a.k.a., the One-Percent Survey) data of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey. In addition to more commonly used metrics, we incorporate counts-in-cylinders (CiC) measurements, which drastically tighten HOD constraints. Our analysis is aided by the Python package, galtab , which enables the rapid, precise prediction of CiC for any HOD model available in halotools . This methodology allows our Markov chains to converge with much fewer trial points, and enables even more drastic speedups due to its GPU portability. Our HOD fits constrain characteristic halo masses tightly and provide statistical evidence for assembly bias, especially at lower luminosity thresholds: the HOD of central galaxies in z ∼ 0.15 samples with limiting absolute magnitude M r < −20.0 and M r < −20.5 samples is positively correlated with halo concentration with a significance of 99.9% and 99.5%, respectively. Our models also favor positive central assembly bias for the brighter M r < −21.0 sample at z ∼ 0.25 (94.8% significance), but there is no significant evidence for assembly bias with the same luminosity threshold at z ∼ 0.15. We provide our constraints for each threshold sample’s characteristic halo masses, assembly bias, and other HOD parameters. These constraints are expected to be significantly tightened with future DESI data, which will span an area 100 times larger than that of SV3.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Precision calibration of calorimeter signals in the ATLAS experiment using an uncertainty-aware neural network

The ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider explores the use of modern neural networks for a multi-dimensional calibration of its calorimeter signal defined by clusters of topologically connected cells (topo-clusters). The Bayesian neural network (BNN) approach not only yields a continuous and smooth calibration function that improves performance relative to the standard calibration but also provides uncertainties on the calibrated energies for each topo-cluster. The results obtained by using a trained BNN are compared to the standard local hadronic calibration and to a calibration provided by training a deep neural network. The uncertainties predicted by the BNN are interpreted in the context of a fractional contribution to the systematic uncertainties of the trained calibration. They are also compared to uncertainty predictions obtained from an alternative estimator employing repulsive ensembles.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗