Results for “contingency analysis” — Page 13

DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supportability Concepts for Crewed Deep Space Exploration

Supportability—defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations—will be a much larger driver of mass, risk, and crew time for future human space exploration due to the more challenging mission context. For Mars, systems must operate in a logistically isolated environment for much longer durations than previous missions, which results in a higher probability of system failure and therefore an increased need for maintenance or contingency options. Mars missions also lack access to quick aborts, which increases the consequences of an unrecoverable system failure. Together, this higher likelihood and consequence of failure results in an increase in supportability-related risk. Supportability analysis is an important part of systems development that helps designers better understand the impacts of system and mission decisions on risk, mass, and crew time. The real-world processes that drive maintenance requirements and other supportability-related characteristics are probabilistic, and therefore they require different conceptual approaches and models than are used for more deterministic aspects of space systems. This paper provides an overview of supportability analysis, addresses key concepts, and provides examples of how supportability analysis can be incorporated into system development. Specifically, system supportability involves stochastic processes, and therefore must be evaluated using probabilistic models. These models can be used to perform sensitivity analysis even if system characteristics are not yet fully defined. Failure rates cannot be measured directly, but tests provide valuable data that can help refine those estimates. Human spaceflight architectures are complex, and exhibit coupled behavior that should be examined with integrated systems analysis that includes an assessment of supportability.

Supportability↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supportability Concepts for Crewed Deep Space Exploration

Supportability—defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations—will be a much larger driver of mass, risk, and crew time for future human space exploration due to the more challenging mission context. For Mars, systems must operate in a logistically isolated environment for much longer durations than previous missions, which results in a higher probability of system failure and therefore an increased need for maintenance or contingency options. Mars missions also lack access to quick aborts, which increases the consequences of an unrecoverable system failure. Together, this higher likelihood and consequence of failure results in an increase in supportability-related risk. Supportability analysis is an important part of systems development that helps designers better understand the impacts of system and mission decisions on risk, mass, and crew time. The real-world processes that drive maintenance requirements and other supportability-related characteristics are probabilistic, and therefore they require different conceptual approaches and models than are used for more deterministic aspects of space systems. This paper provides an overview of supportability analysis, addresses key concepts, and provides examples of how supportability analysis can be incorporated into system development. Specifically, system supportability involves stochastic processes, and therefore must be evaluated using probabilistic models. These models can be used to perform sensitivity analysis even if system characteristics are not yet fully defined. Failure rates cannot be measured directly, but tests provide valuable data that can help refine those estimates. Human spaceflight architectures are complex, and exhibit coupled behavior that should be examined with integrated systems analysis that includes an assessment of supportability.

Supportability↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reserve and energy scarcity pricing in United States power markets: A comparative review of principles and practices

Here, errors in forecasting load and renewable-based generation in restructured power systems mean that independent system operators (ISOs) must procure sufficient operating reserves to keep the real-time operation of the system reliable and secure. But when procured reserves turn out to be insufficient in real-time due to the lack of resource capacity or ramp capability, operators often set higher prices for reserves and energy to encourage more supply, and to motivate consumers to decrease usage or shift it to other times. This procedure, which is called scarcity or shortage pricing, is a core feature of U.S. electricity markets. It is receiving increased attention from market designers and stakeholders because scarcity will become more important for spot price formation in the future with the increased penetration of zero-marginal cost renewables, and the shrinking role of fuel costs in setting prices. Scarcity pricing is implemented in various ways by different ISOs. These differences have practical implications for the level of prices and incentives for investment, operations, and demand modification. In this paper, general approaches and specific calculation procedures for reserve and energy scarcity pricing practices and calculations across the seven ISO-based U.S. power markets are reviewed and compared. A consistent terminology is used to facilitate the comparison. Current scarcity pricing practices are grouped into three approaches: (1) imposing an adder after the spot market is run; (2) including stepwise demand curves within market clearing procedures for non-contingency reserve products (e.g., the novel flexiramp product), which tends to yield longer right tails for energy scarcity premium curves; and (3) having stepwise demand curves for traditional contingency reserve products only, which results in shorter right tails in energy scarcity curves. A generic numerical example is presented to highlight the large practical differences among the reserve scarcity pricing approaches and specific implementations. To further investigate factors that contribute the most to demand curves differences among ISOs, a sensitivity analysis is performed. This analysis shows that the largest source of differences among the curves is the scarcity prices assumed in the case of severe scarcity, while the number of steps used and whether flexiramp is considered also yields important differences in scarcity prices. As renewable penetration increases, it will become increasingly crucial to employ administrative demand curves so that spot prices more effectively motivate supply and demand adjustments exactly when and where they are needed. This study shows that the different assumptions yield very different scarcity premiums for reserves and energy, and are likely to provide divergent incentives for resources to respond to shortages. It is concluded that to promote market efficiency, a reserve shortage demand curve should have at least three features: inclusion of the marginal value of reserve products at each shortage level, consideration of the magnitude and probability of supply contingencies, and avoidance of abrupt price discontinuities that can cause excessively volatile market outcomes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

J Lemery↗

NASA NTRS2024

Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Datascope: Challenges and Potential Solutions

Data flows and storage/retrieval capacity are severely constrained during missions in space and challenges will become even greater during exploration class missions. There is a need for an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to monitor and analyze data to provide real-time consultative support for crew medical officer (CMO) decision-making. EIMO is defined as the gradual transition of medical care and decision making from terrestrial to space-based assets, enabling support of astronaut health and performance and reducing overall mission risk. While a hallmark of this paradigm shift from low-earth orbit is that on-board care will increasingly become the responsibility of the astronauts for primary management and decision making, terrestrial assets will continue to be paramount in pre-mission screening and planning, as well as prevention, health maintenance and long-term care contingencies. New capabilities and systems that enable progressively more robust and resilient systems and crews will be necessary to reduce risk and increase probability of deep space exploration mission success. An aspiration for EIMO is to develop AI-enhanced solutions for analysis of crew health & performance data and to facilitate clinical decision support for autonomous medical operations. A “system of systems” approach is envisioned whereby EIMO will deploy AI-supported natural language processing and machine learning (ML) techniques to utilize embedded reference databases and real-time data streams [input vectors] from multiple data sources. Constituent input vectors may include environmental controls, countermeasures data, behavioral data, physiologic wearables, point-of-care laboratory tests, personalized medical records, inventory trade space risk assessments, COTS medical databases, and ground support inputs. An ideal AI capability would possess trained fusion algorithms to cross reference input vectors with medical ‘knowledge’ [cultivated database] to stratify relevant data streams for predictive and actionable capabilities. In addition, EIMO will feature mobility, in that it can be accessed and can push/pull data within and between multiple vehicles/habitats. Large amounts and variable sources of data can be leveraged to diagnose, inform treatment strategies, and potentially predict medical events and performance decrements. Inclusion of advanced training tools using extended reality will enable increasingly autonomous medical care to aid a CMO when ground support is unavailable or time-delayed beyond required action window, e.g., emergent medical situations. EIMO CDSS would require very large datasets to train pre-flight and significant amounts of data are needed to support ML via in-flight CDSS operations. An additional challenge will be to find sufficient data to train a model relevant to astronaut demographics. The rapid, accelerating evolution of this field creates a propitious solution space to leverage multi-modal AI through public-private partnership(s). The status of multi-modal AI systems today would preclude their use for long duration missions as they remain unreliable and are subject to “digital hallucinations” and other errors that could pose operational risk. A federated labs structure is being considered to test and optimize data flow from the multiple input vectors leading to field testing in suitable ground/flight analogs. Critical to the success of an EIMO CDSS will be integration and interoperability and success will be defined by a system that can serve as an in-flight medical consult for the CMO providing critical support during medical contingencies. Benefits to terrestrial medicine may be significant as an outflow of the EIMO medical system, particularly for remote areas and communities lacking significant infrastructure, personnel and resources.

Medical Operations↗

NASA NTRS2010

Earth Return Navigation Analysis for Manned Spacecraft Using Optical and Radiometric Measurements

Future manned space missions will travel beyond low Earth orbit with more stringent navigation requirements and fewer navigation resources than used for the Apollo Program of the 1960s. A study has been performed to assess radiometric and optical tracking capabilities necessary to meet nominal and contingency Earth entry flight path angle requirements. Results indicate that 3 tracking stations will be insufficient for meeting nominal entry requirements, while the performance of a 6 station architecture is dependent on the entry geometry. Optical tracking results indicate that a narrow-angle camera is required for satisfying contingency Earth return requirements.

GN&C↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

contingencies↗

DOE OSTI2023

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Commercial Grade Dedication Example Report for a Generic Sodium Pool-Type Fast Reactor Application

In the U.S., a key component of the commercialization of advanced reactors is completion of a license application, which must ultimately be approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The approval of the license application by the NRC is contingent on satisfactory demonstration of the design basis and the response of the advanced reactor design to transient and accident scenarios using accepted codes and methods. This report describes the qualification and dedication requirements that the advanced reactor safety analysis system software SAS4A/SASSYS-1 are expected to need to fulfill to be used for sodium-cooled pool-type fast reactor licensing. The qualification and dedication requirements are identified through performance critical characteristics and evaluation model acceptance criteria representative of the advanced reactor design considered for licensing. This document captures, additionally, the verification process developed to demonstrate that the software fulfills the qualification and dedication requirements for a generic sodium-cooled pool-type fast reactor as part of the commercial grade dedication process. Like most software that has primarily existed in the research and development space, the most significant challenge facing SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for use in a licensing framework is the availability of a documentation basis describing the code pedigree. SAS4A/SASSYS-1 has been used for licensing of the fast flux test facility (FFTF) and the JOYO sodium-cooled fast reactor in Japan, as well as the design of the CRBR Plant. However, the historical verification and validation (V&V) activities supporting SAS4A/SASSYS-1 development do not align with modern software quality assurance (SQA) and V&V requirements. Two approaches to use of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 in a commercial licensing framework have been identified: commercial-grade dedication (CGD) and software qualification. The methods and requirements prescribed in the ASME NQA-1-2008/2009 Standard and Regulatory Guide 1.203 on the evaluation model development and assessment process (EMDAP) have been used as guidance to define the CGD and qualification processes, respectively. A qualification and dedication requirements matrix has been developed which utilizes fundamental software verification. In this process, software verification is defined as a software quality process aimed at defining software requirement specifications, developing software design documentation, and performing and documenting acceptance testing of the code against requirements. A key element of software qualification and dedication includes determination of software acceptance with respect to critical characteristics relevant to the functional requirements of the software. To assist with identification of cross-cutting transient phenomena and functional requirements, domestic SFR vendor designs have been reviewed to identify a reference SFR design. For this report, the reference design is defined as a pool-type reactor with metal alloy fuel, a liquid-metal intermediate heat transport system, and passive decay heat rejection systems. Given this reference, a series of high-level cross-cutting phenomena was identified for a general class of single-fault undercooling or reactivity insertion transients that scopes the design basis space, with the goal of assisting with prioritization of documentation development efforts for key transient models in SAS: 1) Reactivity feedback response prior to scram; 2) System-wide thermal inertia; 3) Transition in natural circulation flow regime in heat removal systems; 4) Decay heat generation; 5) Steady-state fuel characterization; 5) Clad/fuel behavior at elevated temperatures; 6) Point kinetics and decay heat; 7) Pump coastdown behavior; 8) Core flow redistribution in loss of forced convection; 9) Pool stratification. As a demonstration of CGD of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 for a sodium pool reactor, a software qualification and dedication gap analysis as it relates to code documentation has been performed. This effort leverages the framework established as part of the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 SQA Program. This CGD demonstration provides a framework that vendors can build upon to demonstrate the applicability of the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 software for licensing a sodium-cooled pool-type fast reactor.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2001

CFD Simulations in Support of Shuttle Orbiter Contingency Abort Aerodynamic Database Enhancement

Modern Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques were used to compute aerodynamic forces and moments of the Space Shuttle Orbiter in specific portions of contingency abort trajectory space. The trajectory space covers a Mach number range of 3.5-15, an angle-of-attack range of 20deg-60deg, an altitude range of 100-190 kft, and several different settings of the control surfaces (elevons, body flap, and speed brake). Presented here are details of the methodology and comparisons of computed aerodynamic coefficients against the values in the current Orbiter Operational Aerodynamic Data Book (OADB). While approximately 40 cases have been computed, only a sampling of the results is provided here. The computed results, in general, are in good agreement with the OADB data (i.e., within the uncertainty bands) for almost all the cases. However, in a limited number of high angle-of-attack cases (at Mach 15), there are significant differences between the computed results, especially the vehicle pitching moment, and the OADB data. A preliminary analysis of the data from the CFD simulations at Mach 15 shows that these differences can be attributed to real-gas/Mach number effects. The aerodynamic coefficients and detailed surface pressure distributions of the present simulations are being used by the Shuttle Program in the evaluation of the capabilities of the Orbiter in contingency abort scenarios.

Papadopoulos, Periklis E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems, e.g., emergency asset management. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000-bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. We perform statistical analysis of damages and discuss topological effects on the example synthetic grid. Also, we include a cursory evaluation of impacts using simplified operational models. Finally, we discuss how our method can be extended to use even higher-fidelity meteorological data sets and suggest directions for future work.

contingencies↗

DOE OSTI2022

A nonsmooth nonconvex optimization algorithm for two-stage optimization problems

An optimization algorithm for a group of nonsmooth nonconvex problems inspired by two-stage stochastic programming problems is proposed. The main challenges for these problems include (1) the problems lack the popular lower-type properties such as prox-regularity assumed in many nonsmooth nonconvex optimization algorithms, (2) the objective can not be analytically expressed and (3) the evaluation of function values and subgradients are computationally expensive. To address these challenges, this report first examines the properties that exist in many two-stage problems, specifically upper-C 2 objectives. Then, we show that quadratic penalty method for securityconstrained alternating current optimal power flow (SCACOPF) contingency problems can make the contingency solution functions upper-C 2 . Based on these observations, a simplified bundle algorithm that bears similarity to sequential quadratic programming (SQP) method is proposed. It is more efficient in implementation and computation compared to conventional bundle methods. Global convergence analysis of the algorithm is presented under novel and reasonable assumptions. The proposed algorithm therefore fills the gap of theoretical convergence for smoothed SCACOPF problems. The inconsistency that might arise in our treatment of the constraints are addressed through a penalty algorithm whose convergence analysis is also provided. Finally, theoretical capabilities and numerical performance of the algorithm are demonstrated through numerical examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2012

Cascade Storage and Delivery System for a Multi Mission Space Exploration Vehicle (MMSEV)

NASA is developing a Multi Mission Space Exploration Vehicle (MMSEV) for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The MMSEV is a pressurized vehicle used to extend the human exploration envelope for Lunar, Near Earth Object (NEO), and Deep Space missions. The Johnson Space Center is developing the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) for the MMSEV. The MMSEV s intended use is to support longer sortie lengths with multiple Extra Vehicular Activities (EVAs) on a higher magnitude than any previous vehicle. This paper presents an analysis of a high pressure oxygen cascade storage and delivery system that will accommodate the crew during long duration Intra Vehicular Activity (IVA) and capable of multiple high pressure oxygen fills to the Portable Life Support System (PLSS) worn by the crew during EVAs. A cascade is a high pressure gas cylinder system used for the refilling of smaller compressed gas cylinders. Each of the large cylinders are filled by a compressor, but the cascade system allows small cylinders to be filled without the need of a compressor. In addition, the cascade system is useful as a "reservoir" to accommodate low pressure needs. A regression model was developed to provide the mechanism to size the cascade systems subject to constraints such as number of crew, extravehicular activity duration and frequency, and ullage gas requirements under contingency scenarios. The sizing routine employed a numerical integration scheme to determine gas compressibility changes during depressurization and compressibility effects were captured using the Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK) equation of state. A multi-dimensional nonlinear optimization routine was used to find the minimum cascade tank system mass that meets the mission requirements. The sizing algorithms developed in this analysis provide a powerful framework to assess cascade filling, compressor, and hybrid systems to design long duration vehicle ECLSS architecture. 1

Yagoda, Evan↗

NASA NTRS1965

Ground testing at MSFC

The large-scale field collection of acoustic data and their analysis are described in this review. The entire sound-field program has the purpose of solving complex problems of excessive noise propagation associated with the static test firing of large space-booster powerplants. The site of data collection has been Mississippi Test Facility (MTF), where far-field sound-propagation and correlated meteorological measurements were initiated in 1962. The statistical evaluation of sound-measurement data shows that the polar distribution of sound in the springtime (at MTF) is determined mainly by the temperature field of the atmosphere. Greater deformation of sound-intensity polar distribution occurs in the autumn as a result of the influence of the wind field. The data on sound attenuation as a function of distance from its source revealed attenuation in excess of the expected magnitude. The excess was mainly between 1 and 10 kilometers from the source, with maximum attenuation (17 to 18 decibels) near 6 kilometers. Excess sound attenuation was compared with calculated sound dispersion. For all sound frequencies in all seasons the deviation between reference and empirical attenuation values formed a bell-shaped distribution on a semilogarithmic plot. The physical causes for the sound- attenuation behavior are considered to be atmospheric diffraction and scattering effects. Statistical analysis of sod-intensity extremes indicated amplification of the sound signals by focusing which could be expected along selected azimuths. Empirical amplification values showed the maximum occurring in winter (50 decibels at 22 kilometers). For the analysis of correlation between empirical sound data and local atmospheric sound- propagation conditions, #e concept of analytical classification of sound-velocity profiles has been developed. Examination of over a quarter-million individual sound-velocity profiles indicates that 33 profile types for heights up to 3 kilometers constitute the empirical possibilities of sound-propagation conditions in southeastern United States. Since the focusing qualities of each sound- velocity profile can be determined as a class characteristic, the overall probabilities of focusing occurrence can he obtained. The severity of focusing, as based upon lateral spread of focusing areas, has been determined. The data for MTF indicate focusing is most severe in winter, with the direction toward east being most affected. Sound propagation is a fluctuating phenomenon because atmospheric conditions vary continuously. A measuring system for analyzing the nonstationary sound-propagation phenomena has been established. The analysis of the acoustic fluctuation data is sup- posed to provide "dynamic” perturbation functions of sound, which are to be superimposed on the related characteristic sound-velocity-profile type. The ultimate result of the program will be the establishment of reliable contingency tables showing the relationship between atmospheric parameters and far-field sound intensities. These data will be the basis for more accurate sound-propagation forecasting for static firing tests.

STATIC TESTING↗

NASA NTRS1990

High and low thrust mission analysis for a Mars exploration program

The purpose of the study is to identify limits, trends, and sensitivities of Mars Transportation System performance over several Mars mission opportunities. Two Mars Transfer Vehicle (MTV) configurations utilizing different propulsion systems (Chemical/Aerobrake and NEP - Nuclear Electric Propulsion) are outlined. The trades involved in comparing two MTS candidate designs are assessed. Mission analysis for mission opportunities beginning in around 2010 and continuing past 2030 is performed, and a Mars mission model is covered, along with orbit selection and NEP and Chemical/Aerobrake performance. The results of several sensitivity studies are given in order to allow for contingency planning in design and performance. It is concluded that the low-thrust system perform best, its vehicle mass is lower and its trip times are more stable.

Shepard, Kyle M.↗

NASA NTRS1977

A procedure used for a ground truth study of a land use map of North Alabama generated from LANDSAT data

A land use map of a five county area in North Alabama was generated from LANDSAT data using a supervised classification algorithm. There was good overall agreement between the land use designated and known conditions, but there were also obvious discrepancies. In ground checking the map, two types of errors were encountered - shift and misclassification - and a method was developed to eliminate or greatly reduce the errors. Randomly selected study areas containing 2,525 pixels were analyzed. Overall, 76.3 percent of the pixels were correctly classified. A contingency coefficient of correlation was calculated to be 0.7 which is significant at the alpha = 0.01 level. The land use maps generated by computers from LANDSAT data are useful for overall land use by regional agencies. However, care must be used when making detailed analysis of small areas. The procedure used for conducting the ground truth study together with data from representative study areas is presented.

Downs, S. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Guidelines for contingency planning NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) ADP security risk reduction decision studies

Guidance is presented to NASA Computer Security Officials for determining the acceptability or unacceptability of ADP security risks based on the technical, operational and economic feasibility of potential safeguards. The risk management process is reviewed as a specialized application of the systems approach to problem solving and information systems analysis and design. Reporting the results of the risk reduction analysis to management is considered. Report formats for the risk reduction study are provided.

Tompkins, F. G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

High precision attitude determination for Magsat

A two phase approach to attitude determination software development is introduced. The prelaunch planning and software activities connected with the development and testing of the baseline system for processing nominal attitude data for MAGSAT are described and postlaunch analysis and modifications are outlined. Attitude data processing began 5 months after launch so that postlaunch anomalies could be accounted for. Another advantage of the two phase approach is that costs are reduced because the system is not burdened with software dealing with all possible contingencies. A definitive, continuous, time history of the three axis attitude of the spacecraft was generated to a precision of 20 arc sec (one standard deviation), in each axis. Sensor alignment determinations were done continuously because of the deletrious effects of changing alignments on attitude precision.

Abshire, G.↗