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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Fuzzy Euclidean wormholes in the inflationary universe

In this paper, we investigate complex-valued Euclidean wormholes in the Starobinsky inflation. Due to the properties of the concave inflation potential, the classicality condition at both ends of the wormhole can be satisfied, as long as the initial condition of the inflation field is such that it is located sufficiently close to the hilltop. Furthermore, we compare the probabilities of classicalized wormholes with the Hartle–Hawking compact instantons and conclude that the Euclidean wormholes are probabilistically preferred than compact instantons, if the inflation lasts more than 50 e-foldings. Our result assumes that the Euclidean path integral is the correct effective description of quantum gravity. This opens a new window for various future investigations that can be either confirmed or refuted by future experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Performance Before and After Irradiation of Pixelated 3D Silicon Sensors for the HL-LHC CMS Tracker

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) particle accelerator at European Center for Nuclear Research (CERN) will be shut down starting in 2026 to achieve the High Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) upgrade. The upgrade will allow for higher fluences, in order to increase the probability of detecting increasingly rare particles, and to obtain higher precision measurements of known particles. To accommodate the new accelerator conditions, many aspects of the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector will be upgraded; of particular interest for this thesis are the silicon pixel detectors located in the inner tracker. These will be replaced and upgraded to accommodate the higher fluences of the HL-LHC upgrade, as well as to replace existing sensors which have sustained radiation damage. In order for the new sensors to operate under high luminosity conditions, they must be increasingly radiation hard, and in order to detect rare particles, they must be increasingly more precise. The performance of one Centro Nacional de Microelectronica (CNM) 3D silicon sensor before and after undergoing irradiation at fluences similar to those which will be observed at the HL-LHC was investigated to determine radiation hardness and precision. Data was collected at Fermi National Laboratory (Fermilab), in the Fermi National Laboratory Test Beam Facility (FTBF) silicon tracker telescope, which can be used to determine the number of particles, and tracks made by high energy protons passing through. The sensor was also irradiated at Fermilab in the Irradiation Test Area (ITA). Prior to data collection a tuning procedure is carried out to determine ideal bias voltage operating conditions, mask noisy and dead pixels, adjust to the ideal threshold, and map sensor gain. Data is then collected at the FTBF, where the sensor is installed in the center of the FTBF silicon telescope. Variables, including angle and bias voltage, are varied throughout data collection. Data is then processed using an alignment software to determine the exact telescope geometry, along with the tracks which were observed passing through the sensor and telescope. Sensor performance was found to be comparable before and after irradiation, with irradiated results showing slightly lower efficiencies and cluster sizes. Position resolution is comparable both before and after irradiation, and similar distributions of cluster shape are observed. After irradiation, the sensor shows increasing collected charge with bias, an indication of increased width of the depletion region. Peak charge pre-irradiation is higher than post-irradiation peak charge, indicating the irradiated results are not taken under fully-depleted conditions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify if the software is reliable (or unreliable) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Orthogonal Defect Classification for Software Reliability Analysis

The modernization of existing and new nuclear power plants with digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C) is a recent and highly trending topic. However, there lacks strong consensus on best-estimate reliability methodologies by both the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the industry. This has resulted in hesitation for further modernization projects until a more unified methodology is realized. In this work, we develop an approach called Orthogonal-defect Classification for Assessing Software Reliability (ORCAS) to quantify probabilities of various software failure modes in a DI&C system. The method utilizes accepted industry methodologies for software quality assurance that are also verified by experimental or mathematical formulations. In essence, the approach combines a semantic failure classification model with a reliability growth model to predict (and quantify) the potential failure modes of a DI&C software system. The semantic classification model is used to address the question: How do latent defects in software contribute to different software failure root causes? The use of reliability growth models is then used to address the question: Given the connection between latent defects and software failure root causes, how can we quantify the reliability of the software? A case study was conducted on a representative I&C platform (ChibiOS) running a smart sensor acquisition software developed by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU). The testing and evidence collection guidance in ORCAS was applied, and defects were uncovered in the software. Qualitative evidence, such as condition coverage, was used to gauge the completeness and trustworthiness of the assessment while quantitative evidence was used to determine the software failure probabilities. The reliability of the software was then estimated and compared to existing operational data of the sensor device. It is demonstrated that by using ORCAS, a semantic reasoning framework can be developed to justify software reliability (or unreliability) while still leveraging the strength of the existing methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil resistance and recovery during neotropical forest succession

The recovery of soil conditions is crucial for successful ecosystem restoration and, hence, for achieving the goals of the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. Here, we assess how soils resist forest conversion and agricultural land use, and how soils recover during subsequent tropical forest succession on abandoned agricultural fields. Our overarching question is how soil resistance and recovery depend on local conditions such as climate, soil type and land-use history. For 300 plots in 21 sites across the Neotropics, we used a chronosequence approach in which we sampled soils from two depths in old-growth forests, agricultural fields (i.e. crop fields and pastures), and secondary forests that differ in age (1–95 years) since abandonment. We measured six soil properties using a standardized sampling design and laboratory analyses. Soil resistance strongly depended on local conditions. Croplands and sites on high-activity clay (i.e. high fertility) show strong increases in bulk density and decreases in pH, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) during deforestation and subsequent agricultural use. Resistance is lower in such sites probably because of a sharp decline in fine root biomass in croplands in the upper soil layers, and a decline in litter input from formerly productive old-growth forest (on high-activity clays). Soil recovery also strongly depended on local conditions. During forest succession, high-activity clays and croplands decreased most strongly in bulk density and increased in C and N, possibly because of strongly compacted soils with low C and N after cropland abandonment, and because of rapid vegetation recovery in high-activity clays leading to greater fine root growth and litter input. Furthermore, sites at low precipitation decreased in pH, whereas sites at high precipitation increased in N and decreased in C : N ratio. Extractable phosphorus (P) did not recover during succession, suggesting increased P limitation as forests age. These results indicate that no single solution exists for effective soil restoration and that local site conditions should determine the restoration strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reassessing Double-Ended Guillotine Break Requirements: Evidence-Based Analysis of Regulatory Assumptions After Five Decades of Nuclear Operation

After five decades of nuclear power operation encompassing more than 20,000 reactor-years across 35 countries and 647 reactors, zero double-ended guillotine breaks (DEGBs) have been documented in commercial reactor coolant systems—despite DEGB being the fundamental design-basis assumption driving Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) sizing, structural protection requirements, and containment design specifications. This report examines the basis for DEGB requirements in nuclear power plant design. The DEGB postulate assumes the instantaneous, complete circumferential severance of the largest diameter pipes in reactor coolant systems, driving major design requirements under 10 Code of Federal Regulations 50.46, General Design Criterion 4 and containment design specifications. The United States (4,880 reactor-years) and France (2,505 reactor-years) contribute the largest operational datasets. Probabilistic assessments estimate direct DEGB occurrence probabilities with extremely low event frequencies, far below the 10-5/reactor-year thresholds typically used to define non-credible events in nuclear-safety analyses; i.e., events with probability this low fall into beyond-design-basis events. Current material-science knowledge demonstrates that the ductile steel materials used in nuclear piping systems exhibit stable crack-growth behavior fundamentally incompatible with instantaneous severance. International regulatory experience, particularly Germany’s comprehensive break-preclusion implementation, and successful leak-before-break (LBB) applications in almost all of U.S. pressurized water reactor units validate that alternatives can maintain safety performance while reducing economic burden. Current DEGB protection systems impose estimated lifetime costs of hundreds of millions of dollars per unit, over the life of a plant across the nuclear industry (including ongoing costs), representing substantial resource allocation toward scenarios with extremely low probability. Although this report acknowledges uncertainties regarding long-term aging effects, potential synergistic degradation mechanisms, and site-specific seismic considerations that warrant continued evaluation as regulatory policy evolves, there remains no documented evidence that a DEGB has occurred as a consequence of the conditions or mechanisms described in this report. This report acknowledges the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) recent efforts—outlined in the draft Interim Staff Guidance (ISG) NRC-DSS-ISG-2025-XX (“Treatment of Certain Loss-of-Coolant Accident Locations as Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents Draft Interim Staff Guidance”)—to reduce overly conservative requirements for large-break loss of coolant accidents through technical justifications and exemptions. However, extensive operating experience and validated methodologies—such as LBB and in-service inspection programs—demonstrate that the probability of a DEGB in reactor coolant-loop piping is extremely low, even under seismic conditions. The authors and reviewers of this report recommend that DEGB be removed as a design-basis event through formal rulemaking, rather than case-by-case exemptions, to better reflect credible failure modes, align with current data, and align with modern, risk-informed safety analysis.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of physics-consistent conditional diffusion model to overcome data scarcity in critical heat flux

Deep generative modeling provides a powerful pathway to overcome data scarcity in energy-related applications where experimental data are often limited. By learning the underlying probability distribution of the training dataset, deep generative models, such as the diffusion model, can generate high-fidelity synthetic samples that statistically resemble the training data. Such synthetic data generation can significantly enrich the size and diversity of the available training data, and more importantly, improve the robustness of downstream machine learning models in predictive tasks. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of diffusion models for overcoming data scarcity in nuclear energy applications. By leveraging a public dataset on critical heat flux which covers a wide range of commercial nuclear reactor operational conditions, we developed a diffusion model that can generate an arbitrary amount of synthetic samples. Since a vanilla diffusion model can only generate samples randomly, we also developed a conditional diffusion model capable of generating targeted critical heat flux data under user-specified thermal-hydraulic conditions. The performance of the diffusion model was evaluated based on its ability to capture empirical feature distributions and pair-wise correlations, as well as to maintain physical consistency. The results showed that both the diffusion model and conditional diffusion model can successfully generate realistic and physics-consistent critical heat flux data. Furthermore, uncertainty quantification results demonstrate that the conditional diffusion model is highly effective in augmenting critical heat flux data while maintaining acceptable levels of uncertainty.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lagrangian conditional statistics and flow topology in edge plasma turbulence

Lagrangian statistics and particle transport in edge plasma turbulence are investigated using the Hasegawa–Wakatani model and its modified version. The latter shows the emergence of pronounced zonal flows. Different values of the adiabaticity parameter are considered. The main goal is to characterize the role of coherent structures, i.e., vortices and zonal flows, and their impact on the Lagrangian statistics of particles. Computationally intensive long time simulations following ensembles of test particles over hundreds of eddy turnover times are considered in statistically stationary turbulent flows. The flow topology is characterized using the Lagrangian Okubo–Weiss criterion in order to split the flow into topologically different domains. In elliptic and hyperbolic regions, the probability density functions (PDFs) of the residence time have self-similar algebraic decaying tails. However, in the intermediate regions, the PDFs exhibit exponentially decaying tails. Topologically conditioned PDFs of the Lagrangian velocity, and acceleration and density fluctuations are likewise computed. The differences between the classical Hasegawa–Wakatani system and its modified version are assessed, and the role of zonal flows is highlighted. Here, the density flux spectrum, which characterizes the contributions of different length scales, is studied, and its inertial scaling is found to be in agreement with predictions based on dimensional arguments. Analyzing the angular change of particle tracers at different time scales, corresponding to coarse grained curvature, completes the study, and these multiscale geometric statistics quantify the directional properties of the particle motion in different flow regimes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

RT-QuIC detection of chronic wasting disease prion in platelet samples of white-tailed deer

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion disease of captive and free-ranging cervids. Currently, a definitive diagnosis of CWD relies on immunohistochemistry detection of PrP Sc in the obex and retropharyngeal lymph node (RPLN) of the affected cervids. For high-throughput screening of CWD in wild cervids, RPLN samples are tested by ELISA followed by IHC confirmation of positive results. Recently, real-time quacking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) has been used to detect CWD positivity in various types of samples. To develop a blood RT-QuIC assay suitable for CWD diagnosis, this study evaluated the assay sensitivity and specificity with and without ASR1-based preanalytical enrichment and NaI as the main ionic component in assay buffer. A total of 23 platelet samples derived from CWD-positive deer (ELISA +/IHC +) and 30 platelet samples from CWD-negative (ELISA-) deer were tested. The diagnostic sensitivity was 43.48% (NaCl), 65.22% (NaI), 60.87% (NaCl-ASR1) or 82.61% (NaI-ASR1). The diagnostic specificity was 96.67% (NaCl), 100% (NaI), 100% (NaCl-ASR1), or 96.67% (NaI-ASR1). The probability of detecting CWD prion in platelet samples derived from CWD-positive deer was 0.924 (95% CRI: 0.714, 0.989) under NaI-ASR1 experimental condition and 0.530 (95% CRI: 0.156, 0.890) under NaCl alone condition. The rate of amyloid formation (RFA) was greatest under the NaI-ASR1 condition at 10 -2 (0.01491, 95% CRI: 0.00675, 0.03384) and 10 -3 (0.00629, 95% CRI: 0.00283, 0.01410) sample dilution levels. Incorporation of ASR1-based preanalytical enrichment and NaI as the main ionic component signifcantly improved the sensitivity of CWD RT-QuIC on deer platelet samples. Blood test by the improved RT-QuIC assay may be used for antemortem and postmortem diagnosis of CWD.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Counting generations in birth and death processes with competing Erlang and exponential waiting times

Lymphocyte populations, stimulated in vitro or in vivo, grow as cells divide. Stochastic models are appropriate because some cells undergo multiple rounds of division, some die, and others of the same type in the same conditions do not divide at all. If individual cells behave independently, then each cell can be imagined as sampling from a probability density of times to division and death. The exponential density is the most mathematically and computationally convenient choice. It has the advantage of satisfying the memoryless property, consistent with a Markov process, but it overestimates the probability of short division times. With the aim of preserving the advantages of a Markovian framework while improving the representation of experimentally-observed division times, we consider a multi-stage model of cellular division and death. We use Erlang-distributed (or, more generally, phase-type distributed) times to division, and exponentially distributed times to death. We classify cells into generations, using the rule that the daughters of cells in generation n are in generation n + 1. In some circumstances, our representation is equivalent to established models of lymphocyte dynamics. We find the growth rate of the cell population by calculating the proportions of cells by stage and generation. The exponent describing the late-time cell population growth, and the criterion for extinction of the population, differs from what would be expected if N steps with rate λ were equivalent to a single step of rate λ/N. We link with a published experimental dataset, where cell counts were reported after T cells were transferred to lymphopenic mice, using Approximate Bayesian Computation. In the comparison, the death rate is assumed to be proportional to the generation and the Erlang time to division for generation 0 is allowed to differ from that of subsequent generations. The multi-stage representation is preferred to a simple exponential in posterior distributions, and the mean time to first division is estimated to be longer than the mean time to subsequent divisions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

RAVEN User Manual

RAVEN is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose probabilistic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable to agnostically communicate with any system code. This agnosticism includes providing Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These APIs are used to allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating the system response, and investigating the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused to- ward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN has started in 2012, when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework became stronger. RAVEN principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concept developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just the individuation of the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the closeness (or not) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is interested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. for an important process such as peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. The initial development of RAVEN has been focused on providing dynamic risk assessment capability to RELAP-7, currently under development at the INL and, likely, future replacement of the RELAP5-3D code. Most the capabilities that have been implemented having RELAP-7 as principal focus are easily deployable for other system codes. For this reason, several side activates are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with soft- ware such as RELAP5-3D, etc. The aim of this document is the explanation of the input requirements, focalizing on the input structure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Key Technical Issues for Greater-Than-Class-C (GTCC) Waste Disposal - 20164

Greater-than-Class C (GTCC) waste is low-level waste (LLW) that exceeds the Class C concentrations tabulated in Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Part 61. Disposal of GTCC waste in the near surface (i.e. upper 30 m of the earth's surface) is prohibited in the United States. Though GTCC waste disposal is generally prohibited, the Commission can approve disposal according to 10 CFR 61.55(a)(2)(iv) on a case-by-case basis. The waste classification tables, developed in the early 1980's, were based on model projections of dose to an inadvertent intruder in agricultural, construction, and discovery exposure scenarios. The assumptions and parameters used were documented in a series of public reports. Though different disposal facility designs and site conditions were considered, the waste classification tables were based on a disposal facility design located in a specific environment. The tables were based on shallow (i.e., top few meters) trench facility designs and did not consider deeper facilities. To determine the suitability of GTCC waste disposal in the near-surface, site-specific analyses must account for differences between GTCC waste and Class A, B, and C LLW (hereafter, traditional LLW). GTCC waste can have concentrations of radionuclides that are much higher than traditional LLW. Because of these higher concentrations, processes that are typically not significant for traditional LLW may be significant with respect to disposal of GTCC waste. These processes include, but are not limited to, heat generation, criticality, and radiolysis. The form of the waste as well as the barriers to release of the waste (e.g. waste package) could be substantially different than they are for traditional LLW. These barriers need to be considered when assessing the impacts of accidents during receipt and placement and in evaluating long-term performance. Some GTCC radioactivity is either embedded in stainless steel or contained in stainless steel barriers. Stainless steel can have very low corrosion rates under a variety of environmental conditions. Finally, and possibly most importantly, GTCC waste would likely need to be disposed deeper than traditional LLW to reduce the probability of disturbance. The waste classification table values of traditional LLW are based on an inadvertent intruder excavating into the waste and bringing some of the material to the land surface. If waste is deeper than approximately 5 m, the excavation scenario becomes very unlikely. Therefore, other intruder scenarios, such as drilling exposure scenarios, need to be evaluated. This paper summarizes key technical issues for the disposal of GTCC waste. Our previous study shows that certain GTCC waste may be suitable for near surface disposal whereas others may not. This study may support ongoing technical analyses assessing potential disposal of GTCC in a near surface disposal facility. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal conditions for efficient flow-electrode capacitive deionization

One of the current barriers to achieving fast and stable performance for flow-electrode capacitive deionization (FCDI) is determining optimal operating parameters. To date, however, no consensus has been reached for universal conditions for FCDI. Through experimental and modeling approaches in this study, we systematically evaluated the influence of applied potential (V = 1.2–2.4 V) and electrolyte concentration (C0 = 0.05–0.5 M) on the FCDI and electrodialysis (ED) desalination processes. Evaluation indicators include the concentration decrease in the desalinated solution, salt removal rates, pH fluctuations, charge efficiency, and energy consumption. Results demonstrated that the dynamic curves of concentration decrease at 2.0 V nearly overlapped with the response at 1.6 V at certain electrolyte concentrations, while the salt removal rates at 0.2 M salt concentration were the best among all concentrations tested at a range of applied potential. Therefore, it was thus concluded that the optimum conditions for FCDI operation are 1.6 V applied potential and 0.2 M initial salt concentration, under which faradaic reactions are not being triggered, and concentration polarization does not significantly affect ion transfer. Furthermore, a comparative study between FCDI and ED indicated that ED has a different dependence on the electrolyte concentration and applied potential, in which the desalination can be linearly enhanced with increasing potential but greatly limited at high concentrations. Due to the presence of carbon particles in FCDI, the enhanced charge/ion transfer is probably the main reason for the different desalination performance of FCDI and ED. Overall, the optimal operating parameters obtained in this work could be used as basic test conditions for further development of new carbon-based materials for FCDI.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fracture mechanics approach to TRISO fuel particle failure analysis

Weibull stress-based methods for failure probability assessment have been developed and analyzed to assess the integrity of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles during fuel life cycles and accident operating conditions. While simple, these methods entail a number of drawbacks when stress concentrates near crack tips, including finite element mesh size dependency when the Weibull stress is averaged over the finite element domain. Fracture mechanics approaches involving the use of interaction integrals eliminate this lack of mesh convergence and produce consistent fracture predictions. In this work, we use an interaction integral approach to computing stress intensity factors for a crack in the inner pyrolytic carbon layer perpendicular to the silicon carbide layer, which is simplified representation of a failure mode in TRISO particles. Further, the interface between these two TRISO layers has been shown to become porous, which we simulate by considering a transition of mechanical properties over such porous length, i.e. the layers are modeled as a functionally graded material. Aspects such as porosity and thermal and irradiation eigenstrains are considered in computing the stress intensity factor from a fracture mechanics approach and compared with the known Weibull stress failure approach. The methodology introduced in this paper enables a more general fracture probability assessment in TRISO particles and eliminates the need to identify best suited parameters when using local or averaged stress-based failure criterion. Finally, the numerical sensitivity studies show how parameters such as the porous transition zone length, the material stiffness, and creep affect the probability of TRISO fuel particle failure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

GANISP: A GAN-Assisted Importance Splitting Probability Estimator: Preprint

To reduce the variance of rare event probability estimator, genealogical importance splitting marches towards a rare event by iteratively selecting and replicating realizations that are headed towards a rare event. The replication step is made difficult when applied to deterministic systems as the initial conditions of the offspring realizations need to be modified. Typically, a random perturbation is applied to the offspring to differentiate their trajectory from the parent realization. It is shown that a random perturbation strategy may be effective for some systems but may also fail for others, thereby preventing variance reduction in the probability estimate. To address this limitation, it is proposed to use a generative model such as a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) to generate perturbations that are consistent with the attractor of the dynamical system. The GAN-assisted Importance SPlitting method (GANISP) improves the variance reduction for the system targeted. An implementation of the method is available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NREL/GANISP).

generative adversarial network↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of conditional cumulative incidence functions under generalized semiparametric regression models with missing covariates, with application to analysis of biomarker correlates in vaccine trials

Herein, this article presents generalized semiparametric regression models for conditional cumulative incidence functions with competing risks data when covariates are missing by sampling design or happenstance. A doubly robust augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) complete-case approach to estimation and inference is investigated. This approach modifies IPW complete-case estimating equations by exploiting the key features in the relationship between the missing covariates and the phase-one data to improve efficiency. An iterative numerical procedure is derived to solve the nonlinear estimating equations. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study examining the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators shows that the AIPW estimators are more efficient than the IPW estimators. The developed method is applied to the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial to investigate vaccine-induced IgG binding antibodies to HIV-1 as correlates of acquisition of HIV-1 infection while taking account of whether the HIV-1 sequences are near or far from the HIV-1 sequences represented in the vaccine construct.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A quantitative model for a nanoscale switch accurately predicts thermal actuation behavior

Manipulation of temperature can be used to actuate DNA origami nano-hinges containing gold nanoparticles. We develop a physical model of this system that uses partition function analysis of the interaction between the nano-hinge and nanoparticle to predict the probability that the nano-hinge is open at a given temperature. The model agrees well with experimental data and predicts experimental conditions that allow the actuation temperature of the nano-hinge to be tuned over a range of temperatures from 30 °C to 45 °C. Additionally, the model identifies microscopic interactions that are important to the macroscopic behavior of the system, revealing surprising features of the system. This combination of physical insight and predictive potential is likely to inform future designs that integrate nanoparticles into dynamic DNA origami structures or use strand binding interactions to control dynamic DNA origami behavior. Furthermore, our modeling approach could be expanded to consider the incorporation, stability, and actuation of other types of functional elements or actuation mechanisms integrated into nucleic acid devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Regional Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks

Abstract Measures of foreshock occurrence are systematically examined using earthquake catalogs for eight regions (Italy, southern California, northern California, Costa Rica, Onshore Japan, Alaska, Turkey, and Greece) after imposing a magnitude ≥3.0 completeness level. Foreshocks are identified using three approaches: a magnitude-dependent space + fixed-time windowing method, a nearest-neighbor clustering method, and a modified magnitude-dependent space + variable-time windowing method. The method with fixed-time windows systematically yields higher counts of foreshocks than the other two clustering methods. We find similar counts of foreshocks across the three methods when the magnitude aperture is equalized by including only earthquakes in the magnitude range M*−2≤ M< M*, in which M* is the mainshock magnitude. For most of the catalogs (excluding Italy and southern California), the measured b-values of the foreshocks of all region-specific mainshocks are lower by 0.1–0.2 than b-values of respective aftershocks. Allowing for variable-time windows results in relatively high probabilities of having at least one foreshock in Italy (∼43%–56%), compared to other regional catalogs. Foreshock probabilities decrease to 14%–41% for regions such as Turkey, Greece, and Costa Rica. Similar trends are found when requiring at least five foreshocks in a sequence to be considered. Estimates of foreshock probabilities for each mainshock are method dependent; however, consistent regional trends exist regardless of method, with regions such as Italy and southern California producing more observable foreshocks than Turkey and Greece. Some regions with relatively high background seismicity have comparatively low probabilities of detectable foreshock activity when using methods that account for variable background, possibly due to depletion of near-failure fault conditions by background activity.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗