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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1979

Feasibility of determining flat roof heat losses using aerial thermography

The utility of aerial thermography for determining rooftop heat losses was investigated experimentally using several completely instrumented test roofs with known thermal resistances. Actual rooftop heat losses were obtained both from in-situ instrumentation and aerial thermography obtained from overflights at an altitude of 305 m. In general, the remotely determined roof surface temperatures agreed very well with those obtained from ground measurements. The roof heat losses calculated using the remotely determined roof temperature agreed to within 17% of those calculated from 1/R delta T using ground measurements. However, this agreement may be fortuitous since the convective component of the heat loss is sensitive to small changes in roof temperature and to the average heat transfer coefficient used, whereas the radiative component is less sensitive. This, at this time, it is felt that an acceptable quantitative determination of roof heat losses using aerial thermography is only feasible when the convective term is accurately known or minimized. The sensitivity of the heat loss determination to environmental conditions was also evaluated. The analysis showed that the most reliable quantitative heat loss determinations can probably be obtained from aerial thermography taken under conditions of total cloud cover with low wind speeds and at low ambient temperatures.

Bowman, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Conservative Analytical Collision Probability for Design of Orbital Formations

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗
NASA NTRS2004

Conservative Analytical Collision Probabilities for Orbital Formation Flying

The literature offers a number of approximations for analytically and/or efficiently computing the probability of collision between two space objects. However, only one of these techniques is a completely analytical approximation that is suitable for use in the preliminary design phase, when it is more important to quickly analyze a large segment of the trade space than it is to precisely compute collision probabilities. Unfortunately, among the types of formations that one might consider, some combine a range of conditions for which this analytical method is less suitable. This work proposes a simple, conservative approximation that produces reasonable upper bounds on the collision probability in such conditions. Although its estimates are much too conservative under other conditions, such conditions are typically well suited for use of the existing method.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗
NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Study Conducted on Sensor-Based Engine Life Calculation

Turbine engine life management is a very complicated process to ensure the safe operation of an engine subjected to complex usage. The challenge of life management is to find a reasonable compromise between the safe operation and the maximum usage of critical parts to reduce maintenance costs. The commonly used "cycle count" approach does not take the engine operation conditions into account, and it oversimplifies the calculation of the life usage. Because of the shortcomings, many engine components are regularly pulled for maintenance before their usable life is over. And, if an engine has been running regularly under more severe conditions, components might not be taken out of service before they exceed their designed risk of failure. The NASA Glenn Research Center and its industrial and academic partners have been using measurable parameters to improve engine life estimation. This study was based on the Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 typical flights under various operating conditions. First a closed-loop engine model was developed to simulate the engine operation across the mission profile and a thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) damage model was used to calculate the actual damage during takeoff, where the maximum TMF accumulates. Next, a Weibull distribution was used to estimate the implied probability of failure for a given accumulated cycle count. Monte Carlo simulations were then employed to find the profiles of the TMF damage under different operating assumptions including parameter uncertainties. Finally, probabilities of failure for different operating conditions were analyzed to demonstrate the importance of a sensor-based damage calculation in order to better manage the risk of failure and on-wing life.

Guo, Ten-Huei↗
NASA NTRS1994

The reaction probability of N2O5 with sulfuric acid aerosols at stratospheric temperatures and compositions

We have measured the rate of reaction of N2O5 with H2O on monodisperse, submicrometer H2SO4 particles in a low-temperature flow reactor. Measurements were carried out at temperatures between 225 K and 293 K on aerosol particles with sizes and compositions comparable to those found in the stratosphere. At 273 K, the reaction probability was found to be 0.103 +/- 0.0006, independent of H2SO4 composition from 64 to 81 wt%. At 230 K, the reaction probability increased from 0.077 for compositions near 60% H2SO4 to 0.146 for compositions near 70% H2SO4. Intermediate conditions gave intermediate results except for low reaction probabilities of about 0.045 at 260 K on aerosols with about 78% H2SO4. The reaction probability did not depend on particle size. These results imply that the reaction occurs essentially at the surface of the particle. A simple model for this type of reaction that reproduces the general trends observed is presented. the presence of formaldehyde did not affect the reaction rate.

Fried, Alan↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗
NASA NTRS2012

Experimental Investigation of Augmented Spark Ignition of a LO2/LCH4 Reaction Control Engine at Altitude Conditions

The use of nontoxic propellants in future exploration vehicles would enable safer, more cost-effective mission scenarios. One promising green alternative to existing hypergols is liquid methane (LCH4) with liquid oxygen (LO2). A 100 lbf LO2/LCH4 engine was developed under the NASA Propulsion and Cryogenic Advanced Development project and tested at the NASA Glenn Research Center Altitude Combustion Stand in a low pressure environment. High ignition energy is a perceived drawback of this propellant combination; so this ignition margin test program examined ignition performance versus delivered spark energy. Sensitivity of ignition to spark timing and repetition rate was also explored. Three different exciter units were used with the engine s augmented (torch) igniter. Captured waveforms indicated spark behavior in hot fire conditions was inconsistent compared to the well-behaved dry sparks. This suggests that rising pressure and flow rate increase spark impedance and may at some point compromise an exciter s ability to complete each spark. The reduced spark energies of such quenched deliveries resulted in more erratic ignitions, decreasing ignition probability. The timing of the sparks relative to the pressure/flow conditions also impacted the probability of ignition. Sparks occurring early in the flow could trigger ignition with energies as low as 1 to 6 mJ, though multiple, similarly timed sparks of 55 to 75 mJ were required for reliable ignition. Delayed spark application and reduced spark repetition rate both correlated with late and occasional failed ignitions. An optimum time interval for spark application and ignition therefore coincides with propellant introduction to the igniter.

Kleinhenz, Julie↗
NASA NTRS2012

Spark Ignition Characteristics of a LO2/LCH4 Engine at Altitude Conditions

The use of non-toxic propellants in future exploration vehicles would enable safer, more cost effective mission scenarios. One promising "green" alternative to existing hypergols is liquid methane/liquid oxygen. To demonstrate performance and prove feasibility of this propellant combination, a 100lbf LO2/LCH4 engine was developed and tested under the NASA Propulsion and Cryogenic Advanced Development (PCAD) project. Since high ignition energy is a perceived drawback of this propellant combination, a test program was performed to explore ignition performance and reliability versus delivered spark energy. The sensitivity of ignition to spark timing and repetition rate was also examined. Three different exciter units were used with the engine's augmented (torch) igniter. Propellant temperature was also varied within the liquid range. Captured waveforms indicated spark behavior in hot fire conditions was inconsistent compared to the well-behaved dry sparks (in quiescent, room air). The escalating pressure and flow environment increases spark impedance and may at some point compromise an exciter.s ability to deliver a spark. Reduced spark energies of these sparks result in more erratic ignitions and adversely affect ignition probability. The timing of the sparks relative to the pressure/flow conditions also impacted the probability of ignition. Sparks occurring early in the flow could trigger ignition with energies as low as 1-6mJ, though multiple, similarly timed sparks of 55-75mJ were required for reliable ignition. An optimum time interval for spark application and ignition coincided with propellant introduction to the igniter and engine. Shifts of ignition timing were manifested by changes in the characteristics of the resulting ignition.

Kleinhenz, Julie↗
NASA NTRS2012

Spark Ignition Characteristics of a L02/LCH4 Engine at Altitude Conditions

The use of non-toxic propellants in future exploration vehicles would enable safer, more cost effective mission scenarios. One promising "green" alternative to existing hypergols is liquid methane/liquid oxygen. To demonstrate performance and prove feasibility of this propellant combination, a 100lbf LO2/LCH4 engine was developed and tested under the NASA Propulsion and Cryogenic Advanced Development (PCAD) project. Since high ignition energy is a perceived drawback of this propellant combination, a test program was performed to explore ignition performance and reliability versus delivered spark energy. The sensitivity of ignition to spark timing and repetition rate was also examined. Three different exciter units were used with the engine s augmented (torch) igniter. Propellant temperature was also varied within the liquid range. Captured waveforms indicated spark behavior in hot fire conditions was inconsistent compared to the well-behaved dry sparks (in quiescent, room air). The escalating pressure and flow environment increases spark impedance and may at some point compromise an exciter s ability to deliver a spark. Reduced spark energies of these sparks result in more erratic ignitions and adversely affect ignition probability. The timing of the sparks relative to the pressure/flow conditions also impacted the probability of ignition. Sparks occurring early in the flow could trigger ignition with energies as low as 1-6mJ, though multiple, similarly timed sparks of 55-75mJ were required for reliable ignition. An optimum time interval for spark application and ignition coincided with propellant introduction to the igniter and engine. Shifts of ignition timing were manifested by changes in the characteristics of the resulting ignition.

Kleinhenz, Julie↗
NASA NTRS1975

Parameter adaptive estimation of random processes

This paper is concerned with the parameter adaptive least squares estimation of random processes. The main result is a general representation theorem for the conditional expectation of a random variable on a product probability space. Using this theorem along with the general likelihood ratio expression, the least squares estimate of the process is found in terms of the parameter conditioned estimates. The stochastic differential for the a posteriori probability and the stochastic differential equation for the a posteriori density are found by using simple stochastic calculus on the representations obtained. The results are specialized to the case when the parameter has a discrete distribution. The results can be used to construct an implementable recursive estimator for certain types of nonlinear filtering problems. This is illustrated by some simple examples.

Caglayan, A. K.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Path-length distributions of photons diffusely reflected from a semi-infinite atmosphere.

Knowledge of the probability distribution of photon path lengths for diffuse reflection in the continuum from a planetary atmosphere greatly simplifies computation of the shape and strength of absorption lines formed under conditions of multiple scattering. Graphs of this probability distribution are presented for diffuse reflection from a semiinfinite conservative atmosphere for both isotropic and forward-directed scattering, and for several angles of incidence and reflection. Graphs showing distributions for the case of absorption in the continuum are also discussed. The distributions are obtained from an analytic expression for the path-length distribution for nth-order scattering and a tabulation of nth-order intensities. It is found that te shape of the probability distribution depends markedly on the degree of forward scattering due to the phase function. The results are compared with those obtained by a Monte Carlo computation of the sort which might be used if tabulated nth-order intensities were not available.

Appleby, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Land-mobile-satellite fade measurements in Australia

Attenuation measurements were implemented at L-band (1.5 GHz) in southeastern Australia during an 11-day period in October 1988 as part of a continuing examination of the propagation effects due to roadside trees and terrain for mobile-satellite service. Beacon transmissions from the geostationary ETS-V and IPORS satellites were observed. The Australian campaign expanded to another continent our Mobile Satellite Service data base of measurements executed in the eastern and southwestern United States regions. An empirical fade distribution model based on U.S. data predicted the Australian results with errors generally less than 1 dB in the 1-20 percent probability region. Directive antennas are shown to suffer deeper fades under severe shadowing conditions (3 dB excess at 4 percent), the equal-probability isolation between co- and cross-polarized transmissions deteriorated to 10 dB at the 5 dB fade level, and antenna diversity reception may reduce unavailability of the system by a factor of 2-8.

Vogel, Wolfhard J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A theoretical basis for the analysis of redundant software subject to coincident errors

Fundamental to the development of redundant software techniques fault-tolerant software, is an understanding of the impact of multiple-joint occurrences of coincident errors. A theoretical basis for the study of redundant software is developed which provides a probabilistic framework for empirically evaluating the effectiveness of the general (N-Version) strategy when component versions are subject to coincident errors, and permits an analytical study of the effects of these errors. The basic assumptions of the model are: (1) independently designed software components are chosen in a random sample; and (2) in the user environment, the system is required to execute on a stationary input series. The intensity of coincident errors, has a central role in the model. This function describes the propensity to introduce design faults in such a way that software components fail together when executing in the user environment. The model is used to give conditions under which an N-Version system is a better strategy for reducing system failure probability than relying on a single version of software. A condition which limits the effectiveness of a fault-tolerant strategy is studied, and it is posted whether system failure probability varies monotonically with increasing N or whether an optimal choice of N exists.

Eckhardt, D. E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2018

GRACE-Assimilated Drought Indicators for the U.S. Drought Monitor

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission detects changes in Earth's gravity field by precisely monitoring the changes in distance between two satellites orbiting the Earth in tandem. Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center generate GRACE-assimilated groundwater and soil moisture drought indicators each week, for drought monitor-related studies and applications. The GRACE-assimilated Drought Indicator Version 2.0 data product (GRACE-DA-DM V2.0) is archived at, and distributed by, the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center). More information about the data and data access is available on the data product landing page at https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets /GRACEDADM_CLSM0125US_7D_2.0/summary. The GRACE-DA-DM V2.0 data product contains three drought indicators: Groundwater Percentile, Root Zone Soil Moisture Percentile, and Surface Soil Moisture Percentile. The drought indicators are of wet or dry conditions, expressed as a percentile, indicating the probability of occurrence within the period of record from 1948 to 2012. These GRACE-assimilated drought indicators, with improved spatial and temporal resolutions, should provide a more comprehensive and objective identification of drought conditions. This presentation describes the basic characteristics of the data and data services at NASA GES DISC and collaborative organizations, and uses a few examples to demonstrate the simple ways to explore the GRACE-assimilated drought indicator data.

hydrology↗
NASA NTRS2014

Data Mining of Historical Human Data to Assess the Risk of Injury due to Dynamic Loads

The NASA Occupant Protection Group is charged with ensuring crewmembers are protected during all dynamic phases of spaceflight. Previous work with outside experts has led to the development of a definition of acceptable risk (DAR) for space capsule vehicles. The DAR defines allowable probability rates for various categories of injuries. An important question is how to validate these probabilities for a given vehicle. One approach is to impact test human volunteers under projected nominal landing loads. The main drawback is the large number of subject tests required to attain a reasonable level of confidence that the injury probability rates would meet those outlined in the DAR. An alternative is to mine existing databases containing human responses to impact. Testing an anthropomorphic test device (ATD) at the same human‐exposure levels could yield a range of ATD responses that would meet DAR. As one aspect of future vehicle validation, the ATD could be tested in the vehicle's seat and suit configuration at nominal landing loads and compared with the ATD responses supported by the human data set. This approach could reduce the number of human‐volunteer tests NASA would need to conduct to validate that a vehicle meets occupant protection standards. METHODS: The U.S. Air Force has recorded hundreds of human responses to frontal, lateral, and spinal impacts at many acceleration levels and pulse durations. All of this data are stored on the Collaborative Biomechanics Data Network (CBDN), which is maintained by the Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB). The test device for human occupant restraint (THOR) ATD was impact tested on WPAFB's horizontal impulse accelerator (HIA) matching human‐volunteer exposures on the HIA to 5 frontal and 3 spinal loading conditions. No human injuries occurred as a result of these impact conditions. Peak THOR response variables for neck axial tension and compression, and thoracic‐spine axial compression were collected. Maximal chest deflection was determined from motion capture video of the impact test. HIC‐ 15 and BRIC were calculated from head acceleration responses. Given the number of human subjects for each test condition a confidence interval of injury probability will be obtained. RESULTS: Results will be discussed in terms of injury‐risk probability estimates based on the human data set evaluated. Also, gaps in the data set will be identified. These gaps could be one of two types. One is areas where additional THOR testing would increase the comparable human data set, thereby improving confidence in the injury probability rate. The other is where additional human testing would assist in obtaining information on other acceleration levels or directions. DISCUSSION: The historical human data showed validity of the THOR ATD for supplemental testing. The historical human data are limited in scope, however. Further data are needed to characterize the effects of sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight on risk of injury

Wells, Jesica↗
NASA NTRS1973

Probabilistic models of planetary contamination

Likely fundamental inadequacies in the model of planetary contamination advanced by Sagan and Coleman are discussed. It is shown that a relatively minor modification of the basic Sagan-Coleman formula yields approximations that are generally adequate with data in the range of interest. This approximation formula differs from the original Sagan-Coleman version only through an initial conditioning on landing outcome. It always yields an upper (conservative) bound for the total probability of contamination, this appealing feature is lost if the conditioning on landing outcome is deleted.

Harrison, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Comparison of experimental and analytical predictions of rotor blade-vortex interactions using model scale acoustic data

Helicopter blade-vortex interaction (BVI) noise is studied using a model scale rotor acoustic data base and an analytical rotor wake prediction method. The variation of BVI acoustic levels with vehicle flight conditions (forward speed and disk attitude) is presented. Calculations of probable BVI locations on the rotor disk are made for a range of operating conditions using the measured acoustic signals and an acoustic ray tracing technique. Analytical predictions of possible BVI locations on the rotor disk are made using a generalized distorted wake analysis program. Comparisons of the interaction locations are made with the results of both the analytic approach and the acoustic ray tracing technique.

Martin, R. M.↗