Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1947

An Investigation of the Effects of Sweep on the Characteristics of a High-Aspect-Ratio Wing in the Langley 8-Foot High-Speed Tunnel

An untwisted wing, which when unswept has an NACA 65-210 section, an aspect ratio of 9.0 and a taper ration of 2.5:1.0, has been tested with no sweep, and 30 deg and 45 deg of sweepback and sweepforward in conjunction with a typical fuselage at Mach numbers from 0.60 to 0.96 at angles of attack generally between -2 deg and 10 deg in the Langley 8-foot high-speed tunnel. Sweep was obtained by rotating the wing semispans about a point in the plane of symmetry. The normal-force, pitching-moment, profile-drag, and loading characteristics for the wings have been obtained from pressure measurements and wake surveys. The results indicate that the wings with +/-30 deg of sweep experienced the severe changes in characteristics associated with the presence of a shock at higher Mach numbers then did the wing without sweep. The differences between the Mach numbers at which the changes occurred for the wings with +/-30 deg sweep and no sweep were generally slightly less than the factor 1/cosDelta(sub r) times the Mach numbers at which the changes occurred for the unswept wing, Delta(sub r) being the sweep angle. The wings with +/-45 deg of sweep did not experience the changes in the characteristics associated with the presence of shock at an angle of attack of 2 deg at Mach numbers up to the highest test value. The magnitudes of changes in the normal-force and pitching-moment coefficients that occurred were less for the wing with 30 deg of sweep than for the unswept wing. The use of sweepforward was superior to sweepback in delaying and reducing the changes in the normal-force coefficients, but was inferior in delaying and reducing the changes in the profile-drag coefficients. Increasing the Mach number to the highest test values had little effect on the positions of the center of loads on the various configurations for the probable design load conditions.

Whitcomb, Richard T.↗
NASA NTRS2005

An Approach to Evaluate Precision and Inter-Laboratory Variability of Flammability Test Methods for Aerospace Materials

Materials selection for spacecraft is based on conventional flammability or ignition sensitivity acceptance tests. Current procedures for determining the inter-laboratory repeatability and reproducibility of aerospace materials flammability tests are not considering the dependence of data variability on test conditions and consequently attempts to characterize the precision of these methods were not successful. The inter-laboratory data variability is determined with tests conducted under arbitrary conditions, which consequently may not provide sufficient information to enable adequate determination of a method's precision. For evaluating the precision of NASA's flammability test methods, the protocol recommended includes selecting critical parameters and determining the 50% failure point by considering the specific failure criteria of each method using the critical parameter as a variable. Upon performing inter-laboratory round robin testing using this approach, the laboratories' performance could be evaluated by comparing the repeatability of the 50% failure point and/or the repeatability of critical conditions where the probabilities of passing and failing are unity, i.e., the transition zone repeatability. When a sufficient amount of data has been acquired with this method, an adequate estimation of precision of aerospace materials flammability test methods will be possible.

Hirsch, David↗
NASA NTRS2013

Stochastic Nonlinear Response of Woven CMCs

It is well known that failure of a material is a locally driven event. In the case of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), significant variations in the microstructure of the composite exist and their significance on both deformation and life response need to be assessed. Examples of these variations include changes in the fiber tow shape, tow shifting/nesting and voids within and between tows. In the present work, the influence of scale specific architectural features of woven ceramic composite are examined stochastically at both the macroscale (woven repeating unit cell (RUC)) and structural scale (idealized using multiple RUCs). The recently developed MultiScale Generalized Method of Cells methodology is used to determine the overall deformation response, proportional elastic limit (first matrix cracking), and failure under tensile loading conditions and associated probability distribution functions. Prior results showed that the most critical architectural parameter to account for is weave void shape and content with other parameters being less in severity. Current results show that statistically only the post-elastic limit region (secondary hardening modulus and ultimate tensile strength) is impacted by local uncertainties both at the macro and structural level.

Kuang, C. Liu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Artificial neural network based isotopic analysis of airborne radioactivity measurement for radiological incident detection

Responders need tools to rapidly detect and identify airborne alpha radioactivity during consequence management scenarios. Traditional continuous air monitor systems used for this purpose compute the net counts in various energy windows to determine the presence of specified isotopes, such as 235U, 239Pu, and 241Am. These calculations rely on having a well-calibrated detector, which is challenging in low-background environments. Here an alternative approach of using artificial neural networks to classify alpha spectra is presented. Two network architectures, fully connected and convolutional networks, were trained to classify alpha spectra into four categories: background and background plus the three isotopes above. Sources were injected into measured background at various fractions of the derived response level (DRL) corresponding to early-phase Protective Action Guides. The convolutional network identifies all sources at 1% of the DRL with average probability of detection of 95% and false alarm probability of 1%. Further, the network identifies sources ranging between 0.25% and 1% of the DRL with higher than 80% probability of detection and lower than 7% false alarm probability. Most significantly, the network performance improves in low-count background conditions, increasing its minimum probability of detection to 93% and reducing the false alarm probabilities to lower than 0.25%. These results show that, once trained on datasets representing a range of detection scenarios, artificial neural networks can accurately identify alpha isotopes of interest without the need for detector calibration.

Woldegiorgis, Surafel F.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources

INTRODUCTION: Long-duration missions beyond low Earth orbit introduce new constraints to the space medical system such as the inability to evacuate to Earth, communication delays, and limitations in clinical skillsets. NASA recognizes the need to improve capabilities for autonomous care on such missions. As the medical system is developed, it is important to have an ability to evaluate the trade space of what resources will be most important. The Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources was developed for this reason, and is now a system to gauge the relative importance of medical resources in addressing medical conditions. METHODS: A list of medical conditions of potential concern for an exploration mission was referenced from the Integrated Medical Model, a probabilistic model designed to quantify in-flight medical risk. The diagnostic and treatment modalities required to address best and worst-case scenarios of each medical condition, at the terrestrial standard of care, were entered into a database. This list included tangible assets (e.g. medications) and intangible assets (e.g. clinical skills to perform a procedure). A team of physicians working within the Exploration Medical Capability Element of NASA's Human Research Program ranked each of the items listed according to its criticality. Data was then obtained from the IMM for the probability of occurrence of the medical conditions, including a breakdown of best case and worst case, during a Mars reference mission. The probability of occurrence information and criticality for each resource were taken into account during analytics performed using Tableau software. RESULTS: A database and weighting system to evaluate all the diagnostic and treatment modalities was created by combining the probability of condition occurrence data with the criticalities assigned by the physician team. DISCUSSION: Exploration Medical Capabilities research at NASA is focused on providing a medical system to support crew medical needs in the context of a Mars mission. MONSTR is a novel approach to performing a quantitative risk analysis that will assess the relative value of individual resources needed for the diagnosis and treatment of various medical conditions. It will provide the operational and research communities at NASA with information to support informed decisions regarding areas of research investment, future crew training, and medical supplies manifested as part of the exploration medical system.

Shah, R. V.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Feasibility of determining flat roof heat losses using aerial thermography

The utility of aerial thermography for determining rooftop heat losses is investigated. Actual rooftop heat losses were obtained both from in-situ instrumentation of test roofs with known thermal resistances and aerial thermography obtained from overflights at an altitude of 305 m. It is found that the roof heat losses calculated using the remotely determined roof temperature agreed to within 17% of those calculated from ground measurements. However it is noted that an acceptable quantitative determination of roof heat losses using aerial thermography is only feasible when the convective term is accurately known or minimized. In addition, the sensitivity of the heat loss determination to environmental conditions is also evaluated. Finally, the analysis shows that the most reliable determinations can probably be obtained under conditions of total cloud cover with low wind speeds and at low ambient temperatures.

Bowman, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1952

Force Characteristics in the Submerged and Planing Condition of a 1/5.78-Scale Model of a Hydro-Ski-Wheel Combination for the Grumman JRF-5 Airplane. TED No. NACA DE 357

Force characteristics determined from tank tests of a 1/5.78 scale model of a hydro-ski-wheel combination for the Grumman JRF-5 airplane are presented. The model was tested in both the submerged and planing conditions over a range of trim, speed, and load sufficiently large to represent the most probable full-size conditions.

Land, Norman S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Series FACTS Devices for Increasing Resiliency in Severe Weather Conditions

Severe weather conditions are low-probability, high-impact events that affect grid operations. The majority of power outages are caused by severe weather conditions. Grid resiliency to weather events can be enhanced by decreasing the reliance on its affected sections. One way to do this is to reduce the power flow through lines vulnerable to severe weather. If a line is disconnected, its initial power flow is distributed through the neighbor lines, which may cause congestion in the grid. FACTS devices can be used to control the power flow of lines that have a higher chance of power outages. Most previous works do not consider weather events in power flow control. In this work, a linearized optimal power flow (OPF)–based algorithm is developed to minimize the real power flow of vulnerable lines considering the thermal limits of lines to prevent infeasible solutions; the simulation is fast, making it suitable for large-scale systems. The proposed optimization problem is presented as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP), making it capable of using short-term load forecasting due to its high solution speed. The proposed optimization problem considers multiple lines with different outage probabilities and the uncertainties of the weather forecast. Moreover, it estimates the power reduction in vulnerable lines due to changes in the series FACTS devices. The performance of the proposed optimization problem is tested on IEEE 14-, 30-, and 118-bus systems for several scenarios. The results are validated with the AC power flow results from MATPOWER.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1989

The geological record of life 3500 Ma ago: Coping with the rigors of a young earth during late accretion

Thin cherty sedimentary layers within the volcanic portions of the 3,500 to 3,300 Ma-old Onverwacht and Fig Tree Groups, Barberton Greenstone belt, South Africa, and Warrawoona Group, eastern Pilbara Block, Western Australia, contain an abundant record of early Archean life. Five principal types of organic and probably biogenic remains and or structures can be identifed: stromatolites, stromatolite detritus, carbonaceous laminite or flat stromalite, carbonaceous detrital particles, and microfossils. Early Archean stromatolites were reported from both the Barberton and eastern Pilbara greenstone belts. Systematic studies are lacking, but two main morphological types of stromatolites appear to be represented by these occurrences. Morphology of the stromalites is described. Preserved early Archean stromatolites and carbonaceous matter appear to reflect communities of photosynthetic cyanobacteria inhabiting shallow, probably marine environments developed over the surfaces of low-relief, rapidly subsiding, simatic volcanic platforms. The overall environmental and tectonic conditions were those that probably prevailed at Earth's surface since the simatic crust and oceans formed sometime before 3,800 Ma. Recent studies also suggest that these early Archean sequences contain layers of debris formed by large-body impacts on early Earth. If so, then these early bacterial communities had developed strategies for coping with the disruptive effects of possibly globe-encircling high-temperature impact vapor clouds, dust blankets, and impact-generated tsunamis. It is probable that these early Archean biogenic materials represent organic communities that evolved long before the beginning of the preserved geological record and were well adapted to the rigors of life on a young, volcanically active Earth during late bombardment. These conditions may have had parallels on Mars during its early evolution.

Lowe, Donald R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Analysis of DC Microgrids as Stochastic Hybrid Systems

This study proposes a method of predicting the influence of random load behavior on the dynamics of dc microgrids and distribution systems. This is accomplished by combining stochastic load models and deterministic microgrid models. Together, these elements constitute a stochastic hybrid system. The resulting model enables straightforward calculation of dynamic state moments, which are used to assess the probability of desirable operating conditions. Specific consideration is given to systems based on the dual active bridge (DAB) topology. Bounds are derived for the probability of zero voltage switching (ZVS) in DAB converters. A simple example is presented to demonstrate how these bounds may be used to improve ZVS performance as an optimization problem. In conclusion, predictions of state moment dynamics and ZVS probability assessments are verified through comparisons to Monte Carlo simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Evolution of the Impact Evidence Library Methods – What We Learned

During fiscal years 2020-2022 NASA’s Human Research Program, Exploration Medical Capability Element has worked to source this evidence for the model. During the process several lessons learned have been identified and drive recommendations for future efforts. The ICL 1.0: Spaceflight Medical Operational expertise should be consulted regarding the addition of future conditions. A clinician experienced with the nuances of spaceflight is recommended to have a minimum of 20 hours per condition to adequately source the evidence. Condition definitions should be carefully crafted to maintain mutual exclusivity. Common side effects from medications, common and consequential incidental findings in laboratory studies, and consequential side effects of diagnostic and procedural capabilities should be considered for inclusion as unique conditions in future iterations of the ICL 1.0. Incidence: Spaceflight incidence, although based on small population sizes, is the gold standard. Terrestrial incidence should be applied cautiously. Probability of minor vs. severe cases of the condition: Data informing severity probability of the medical condition are nearly always terrestrial. Special attention should be paid to this metric as it drives outcomes in the model and terrestrial data often overestimate severity of expected cases in spaceflight. Condition duration: Three clinical phases currently exist in the model. They represent the time necessary for diagnosis, treatment/convalescence/recurrence, and the remaining duration of the mission after maximal recovery, respectively. Further subdivision of acute and convalescent treatment/recurrence is recommended. Probability of need for evacuation: Surrogates for “Return to Definitive Care” were chosen prior to data collection. In most cases these surrogates were “need for hospitalization” or “need for surgery.” For many conditions these may not be realistic drivers of “Return to Definitive Care” and should be re-examined. Probability of Crew Mortality: Terrestrial mortality data is difficult to apply to astronauts who, invariably, have less comorbidities than terrestrial subjects. It must be applied judiciously. The proportion of mission tasks impaired by the condition: “Task Impairment” was assigned to each condition prior to the condition duration data becoming available. Future efforts should assign Task Impairment as the final step in sourcing the evidence.

A.J. Kreykes↗
NASA NTRS1956

Ditching Investigation of a 1/12-Scale Model of the Douglas F4D-1 Airplane, TED No. NACA DE 384

A ditching investigation was made of a l/l2-scale dynamically similar model of the Douglas F4D-1 airplane to study its behavior when ditched. The model was landed in calm water at the Langley tank no. 2 monorail. Various landing attitudes, speeds, and configurations were investigated. The behavior of the model was determined from visual observations, acceleration records, and motion-picture records of the ditchings. Data are presented in tables, sequence photographs, time-history acceleration curves, and attitude curves. From the results of the investigation, it was concluded that the airplane should be ditched at the lowest speed and highest attitude consistent with adequate control (near 22 deg) with landing gear retracted. In a calm-water ditching under these conditions the airplane will probably nose in slightly, then make a fairly smooth run. The fuselage bottom will sustain appreciable damage so that rapid flooding and short flotation time are likely. Maximum longitudinal deceleration will be about 4g and maximum normal acceleration will be about 6g in a landing run of about 420 feet, In a calm-water ditching under similar conditions with the landing gear extended, the airplane will probably dive. Maximum longitudinal decelerations will be about 5-1/2g and maximum normal accelerations will be about 3-1/2g in a landing run of about 170 feet.

Windham, John O.↗
NASA NTRS1992

On the modeling of scalar diffusion in isotropic turbulence

The objectives of the study were to establish the behavior of conditional scalar dissipation and diffusion at the extreme values of mass fraction and to derive and evaluate closure models for these terms using the scalar probability density function. The conditional scalar dissipation, its derivative with respect to mass fraction, and conditional scalar diffusion are all found to be zero at extreme values of mass fraction. A model for conditional scalar dissipation is derived which exhibits the correct behavior at the extreme values of scalar concentration.

Girimaji, Sharath S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Extravehicular Activity on the Lunar Surface: Mapping Mitigation Risk Consequence for Crew Needing Assistance or Rescue

Extravehicular activity (EVA) on the lunar surface presents unique risks to crew with possibility for injury. Without appropriate assistance or rescue capability, inability to nominally ambulate and return to a lander, especially during early Artemis missions, could have catastrophic consequences. Mapping likelihood and consequence safety risk associated with identified injury scenarios establishes a baseline from which to assess potential mitigation solutions to ensure crew health and safety. Causes leading to the need for incapacitated crew rescue (ICR) during EVA on the lunar surface were previously identified and classified using an ICR/Acute Injury scenario spectrum. Severe scenarios are those when the affected astronaut requires either partial or full continuous assistance from the rescuer. Evaluation of these continual reliance conditions included calculating event probabilities (likelihoods) associated with an early Artemis mission and mapping them to established Exploration System Directorate (ESD) probability thresholds; safety consequences were analyzed and correlated to defined ESD personnel safety categories. These resulting likelihood and consequence values served as a baseline for assessing risk reduction of three mitigation capabilities: crew assistance (rescuer crew) only, walking assist devices, and a wheeled transport device. Of the twenty-five continual reliance conditions, ten were evaluated as “catastrophic” (Level 5, loss of life) during EVA on the lunar surface with probabilities ranging from moderate to very low during an early Artemis mission. Crew assistance only and walking assist devices showed similar potential for risk reduction, with four of the ten causes decreasing to Level 4. A wheeled transport device further increased risk reduction with six of the ten conditions decreasing to Level 4. Given the catastrophic consequence of several identified conditions, assessments should be performed to determine the feasibility of mitigation capabilities. It is currently unknown whether a rescuer astronaut could effectively provide continuous assistance to enable both crew to return safely to the lander from the standpoint of both suit geometry and human performance. Although resulting in an increase in resources, providing a wheeled transport provides the highest risk reduction potential, and walking assist devices may have prevention as well as mitigation benefits.

lunar surface↗
NASA NTRS1972

Application of an approach and landing system model to the space shuttle orbiter vehicle

An analytic model and procedure are described which can be used to estimate probability distributions of touchdown conditions, without utilizing a Monte Carlo simulation. Example applications are presented, including one-step and two-step flare strategies for the space shuttle orbiter. The computed probability distributions for the two-step flare are compared with the corresponding histograms from an independent Monte Carlo simulation of the same situation. The computed distributions are very good fits to the Monte-Carlo-generated histograms for pertinent longitudinal and lateral variables at three points (including touchdown) along the vehicle's final approach trajectory. The model, thus verified, has more inherent power for assessing the effects of system element changes than conventional Monte Carlo techniques.

Johnson, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Priori Analysis of Flamelet-Based Modeling for a Dual-Mode Scramjet Combustor

An a priori investigation of the applicability of flamelet-based combustion models to dual-mode scramjet combustion was performed utilizing Reynolds-averaged simulations (RAS). For this purpose, the HIFiRE Direct Connect Rig (HDCR) flowpath, fueled with a JP-7 fuel surrogate and operating in dual- and scram-mode was considered. The chemistry of the JP-7 fuel surrogate was modeled using a 22 species, 18-step chemical reaction mechanism. Simulation results were compared to experimentally-obtained, time-averaged, wall pressure measurements to validate the RAS solutions. The analysis of the dual-mode operation of this flowpath showed regions of predominately non-premixed, high-Damkohler number, combustion. Regions of premixed combustion were also present but associated with only a small fraction of the total heat-release in the flow. This is in contrast to the scram-mode operation, where a comparable amount of heat is released from non-premixed and premixed combustion modes. Representative flamelet boundary conditions were estimated by analyzing probability density functions for temperature and pressure for pure fuel and oxidizer conditions. The results of the present study reveal the potential for a flamelet model to accurately model the combustion processes in the HDCR and likely other high-speed flowpaths of engineering interest.

Quinlan, Jesse R.↗
NASA NTRS2025

Assessment of Model Outcomes Between the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT)

The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is a computational model that provides human health and medical risk predictions for crewed spaceflight missions. MEDPRAT utilizes discrete event modeling and dynamic probabilistic simulation to predict critical mission outcomes (total medical events, crew health index, quality time lost, loss of crew life, removal to definitive care), condition occurrences, and resource consumption. Input parameters for MEDPRAT include crew attributes (e.g., sex), types of mission activities (e.g., whether and where crew members perform an extravehicular activity (EVA)), available resources, treatment information, and probability distributions for medical conditions. As an evolution of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), MEDPRAT provides enhanced capabilities and higher fidelity, and incorporates more appropriate assumptions for long-duration spaceflight. IMM is the currently accepted standard for quantifying spaceflight mission medical risk in NASA operations that uses a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach. MEDPRAT builds on the same logical foundation as IMM but implements the model architecture through highly optimized Monte Carlo sampling methods. An analysis is performed comparing the outputs from IMM with those from MEDPRAT V1.0 and V2.0 for the same reference missions in order to quantify similarities and differences in the model outcomes. The juxtaposition between IMM and MEDPRAT V1.0 and 2.0 shown in this report demonstrates that these two models generate very similar results; where differences in outcomes are shown, these are in accordance with the underlying assumptions and differences in the model architectures. This validation effort further establishes the credibility and reliability of the MEDPRAT software.

Matthew T Prelich↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Determining the Most Influencing Medical Conditions in MEDPRAT’s SIN Directed Graph

INTRODUCTION: The Susceptibility Inference Network (SIN) is a network of medical conditions, part of the Medical Extensible Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) developed by NASA to assess human health and medical risk to space exploration missions. The SIN is subject matter expert informed and acts as a prototype that provides relationships and dependencies between events modeled by MEDPRAT. Each vertex in the SIN has a weight which evaluates the severity of having the condition regardless of the progression from or to that condition. In this presentation, we consider two statistics to measure that stand alone risk: Quality Time Lost (QTL) and Loss of Crew Life (LOCL). Our goal is to identify the medical conditions that contribute the most to crew members QTL and LOCL risks due to progression of conditions in the network. We investigate how different computation parameters result in different condition rankings and address the choice of parameters that allows appropriate interventions to ensure space mission success. METHODS: The Katz score, one of many centrality measures created for ranking purposes in network analysis, takes into account all possible walks through the network, penalizing each additional step in a walk by a factor α called the Katz parameter. The literature does not provide specific values for the choice of α. We derive an analytical relationship between α and the maximum path length which has influence on the Katz score and ranking. Based on the probability of progression of each condition in the SIN, we identify that maximum path length of interest and calculate α that is then used in the Katz formula to rank the conditions in the SIN. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The effective probabilities of the SIN matrix generally fall below 10−6, which is below the level of the least influencing condition in the set. This corresponds to the probability of at most six consecutive progressions of a condition. Consequently, we calculate the Katz Parameter α and get 0.32. We rank the medical conditions and find that Acute Radiation Symptom is the condition the most prone to contribute to quality time loss due to progression.

risk analysis↗