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NASA NTRS1986

Transonic Navier-Stokes wing solutions using a zonal approach. Part 2: High angle-of-attack simulation

A computer code is under development whereby the thin-layer Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are to be applied to realistic fighter-aircraft configurations. This transonic Navier-Stokes code (TNS) utilizes a zonal approach in order to treat complex geometries and satisfy in-core computer memory constraints. The zonal approach has been applied to isolated wing geometries in order to facilitate code development. Part 1 of this paper addresses the TNS finite-difference algorithm, zonal methodology, and code validation with experimental data. Part 2 of this paper addresses some numerical issues such as code robustness, efficiency, and accuracy at high angles of attack. Special free-stream-preserving metrics proved an effective way to treat H-mesh singularities over a large range of severe flow conditions, including strong leading-edge flow gradients, massive shock-induced separation, and stall. Furthermore, lift and drag coefficients have been computed for a wing up through CLmax. Numerical oil flow patterns and particle trajectories are presented both for subcritical and transonic flow. These flow simulations are rich with complex separated flow physics and demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of the zonal approach.

Chaderjian, N. M.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Exploration Medical Capability IMPACT Medical Database – Medical Item Database (MedID) Content Development Methods

The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project encompasses a suite of computational tools that are used to inform systematic trade study evaluations and research prioritizations regarding the optimization of spaceflight medical systems, including the provision of risk assessment metrics, for a given design reference mission (DRM). The IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD) is the component that virtually houses the clinical and engineering data for medical conditions, capabilities, and resources used to support these analyses. In addition, IMPACT-MD also provides data to the associated SysML model to support the Level 2, Level 3, and Level 4 requirements development needed for IMPACT. IMPACT-MD contains an internal Evidence Library (EL) sub-component that hosts the clinical evidence, treatment and outcome metric data, and incidence data for each medical condition identified for exploration-class missions. Furthermore, a separate Medical Item Database (MedID) sub-component hosts the engineering data and physical attributes (e.g., mass, volume, power, etc.) associated with each medical resource item identified to address the requisite medical conditions. The IMPACT project is conducted under the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element of the Human Research Program (HRP) within NASA's Space Operations Mission Directorate (SOMD). The reader is referred to the documents in Appendix A for a more complete overview of the IMPACT tool suite and functionality as well as further detail on any associated aspects of the project. The primary purpose of this document is to describe the methods utilized in the collection and verification of engineering data content during the project development phase for the MedID sub-component of the IMPACT-MD project. Engineering content data (both existing and new/future) will be stored in IMPACT-MD for use by the IMPACT project. This document will detail the content development and data credibility for the engineering data housed within the MedID subcomponent of IMPACT-MD, which is used to inform the IMPACT 1.0 project deliverables.

Exploration Medical Capability↗
NASA NTRS2011

Large Eddy Simulations of Severe Convection Induced Turbulence

Convective storms can pose a serious risk to aviation operations since they are often accompanied by turbulence, heavy rain, hail, icing, lightning, strong winds, and poor visibility. They can cause major delays in air traffic due to the re-routing of flights, and by disrupting operations at the airports in the vicinity of the storm system. In this study, the Terminal Area Simulation System is used to simulate five different convective events ranging from a mesoscale convective complex to isolated storms. The occurrence of convection induced turbulence is analyzed from these simulations. The validation of model results with the radar data and other observations is reported and an aircraft-centric turbulence hazard metric calculated for each case is discussed. The turbulence analysis showed that large pockets of significant turbulence hazard can be found in regions of low radar reflectivity. Moderate and severe turbulence was often found in building cumulus turrets and overshooting tops.

Ahmad, Nash'at↗
NASA NTRS2014

NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluation of the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run

This report documents an evaluation by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) of a two-year 7-km-resolution non-hydrostatic global mesoscale simulation produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The simulation was produced as a Nature Run for conducting observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Generation of the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) was motivated in part by the desire of the OSSE community for an improved high-resolution sequel to an existing Nature Run produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which has served the community for several years. The intended use of the G5NR in this context is for generating simulated observations to test proposed observing system designs regarding new instruments and their deployments. Because NASA's interest in OSSEs extends beyond traditional weather forecasting applications, the G5NR includes, in addition to standard meteorological components, a suite of aerosol types and several trace gas concentrations, with emissions downscaled to 10 km using ancillary information such as power plant location, population density and night-light information. The evaluation exercise described here involved more than twenty-five GMAO scientists investigating various aspects of the G5NR performance, including time mean temperature and wind fields, energy spectra, precipitation and the hydrological cycle, the representation of waves, tropical cyclones and midlatitude storms, land and ocean surface characteristics, the representation and forcing effects of clouds and radiation, dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere, and the representation of aerosols and trace gases. Comparisons are made with observational data sets when possible, as well as with reanalyses and other long model simulations. The evaluation is broad in scope, as it is meant to assess the overall realism of basic aspects of the G5NR deemed relevant to the conduct of OSSEs. However, because of the relatively short record and other practical considerations, these comparisons cannot provide a definitive, statistically sound assessment of all model deficiencies, or guarantee the G5NR's suitability for all OSSE applications. Differences between the observed and simulated behavior also must be judged in the context of basic internal atmospheric variability which can introduce variations that are not necessarily controlled by the prescribed sea surface temperatures used in generating the G5NR. The results show that the G5NR performs well as measured by the majority of metrics applied in this evaluation. Particular benefits derived from the 7-km resolution of G5NR include realistic representations of extreme weather events in both the tropics and extratropics including tropical cyclones, Nor'easters and mesoscale convective complexes; improved representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land; well-resolved surface-atmosphere interactions such as katabatic wind flows over Antarctica and Greenland; and resolution of orographically generated gravity waves that propagate into the upper atmosphere and influence the large scale circulation. Obvious deficiencies in the G5NR include a "splitting" of the inter-tropical convergence zone, which leads to a weaker-than-observed Hadley circulation and related deficiencies in the depiction of stationary wave patterns. Also, while the G5NR captures global cloud features and radiative effects well in general, close comparison with observations reveals higher-than-observed cloud brightness, likely due to an overabundance of cloud condensate; less distinct cloud minima in subtropical subsidence zones, consistent with a weak Hadley circualtion; and too few near-coastal marine stratocumulus clouds.

GEOS-5↗
NASA NTRS2015

Thirty Years of Change in Subalpine Forest Cover from Landsat Image Analysis in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

Landsat imagery was analyzed to understand changes in subalpine forest stands since the mid-1980s in the Sierra-Nevada region of California. At locations where long-term plot measurements have shown that stands are becoming denser in the number of small tree stems (compared to the early 1930s), the 30-year analysis of Landsat greenness index (NDVI) indicated that no consistent increases in canopy leaf cover have occurred at these same locations since the mid-1980s. Interannual variations in stand NDVI closely followed snow accumulation amounts recorded at nearby stations. In contrast, at eastern Sierra whitebark pine stand locations where it has been observed that widespread tree mortality has occurred, decreasing NDVI trends over the past 5-10 years were consistent with rapid loss of forest canopy cover. Landsat imagery was further analyzed to understand patterns of post-wildfire vegetation recovery, focusing on high burn severity (HBS) patches within burned areas dating from the late 1940s. Analysis of landscape metrics showed that the percentage of total HBS area comprised by the largest patch of recovered woody cover was relatively small in all fires that occurred since 1995, but increased rapidly with time since fire. Patch complexity of recovered woody cover decreased notably after more than 50 years of regrowth, but was not readily associated with time for fires that occurred since the mid 1990s. The aggregation level of patches with recovery of woody cover increased steadily with time since fire. The study approach using satellite remote sensing can be expanded to assess the consequences of stand-replacing wildfires in all forests of the region.

Fires↗
NASA NTRS2017

First benchmark of the Unstructured Grid Adaptation Working Group

Unstructured grid adaptation is a technology that holds the potential to improve the automation and accuracy of computational fluid dynamics and other computational disciplines. Difficulty producing the highly anisotropic elements necessary for simulation on complex curved geometries that satisfies a resolution request has limited this technology's widespread adoption. The Unstructured Grid Adaptation Working Group is an open gathering of researchers working on adapting simplicial meshes to conform to a metric field. Current members span a wide range of institutions including academia, industry, and national laboratories. The purpose of this group is to create a common basis for understanding and improving mesh adaptation. We present our first major contribution: a common set of benchmark cases, including input meshes and analytic metric specifications, that are publicly available to be used for evaluating any mesh adaptation code. We also present the results of several existing codes on these benchmark cases, to illustrate their utility in identifying key challenges common to all codes and important differences between available codes. Future directions are defined to expand this benchmark to mature the technology necessary to impact practical simulation workflows.

Ibanez, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2010

Pixel-Level Calibration in the Kepler Science Operations Center Pipeline

We present an overview of the pixel-level calibration of flight data from the Kepler Mission performed within the Kepler Science Operations Center Science Processing Pipeline. This article describes the calibration (CAL) module, which operates on original spacecraft data to remove instrument effects and other artifacts that pollute the data. Traditional CCD data reduction is performed (removal of instrument/detector effects such as bias and dark current), in addition to pixel-level calibration (correcting for cosmic rays and variations in pixel sensitivity), Kepler-specific corrections (removing smear signals which result from the lack of a shutter on the photometer and correcting for distortions induced by the readout electronics), and additional operations that are needed due to the complexity and large volume of flight data. CAL operates on long (~30 min) and short (~1 min) sampled data, as well as full-frame images, and produces calibrated pixel flux time series, uncertainties, and other metrics that are used in subsequent Pipeline modules. The raw and calibrated data are also archived in the Multi-mission Archive at Space Telescope at the Space Telescope Science Institute for use by the astronomical community.

Calibration↗
NASA NTRS2019

Health Management and Prognostics for Electric Aircraft Powertrain

W and c Any air borne vehicle needs incorporating safety as key parameter of measure, and inclusion of autonomy raises the critical need for safety under autonomous operations. Management of faults and component degradation is key as complexity in autonomous operations grow over the period of time. Therefore, in addition to basic operational requirements, an autonomous electric vehicle should be able to make accurate estimates of its current system health and take the correct decisions to complete its mission successfully. Real-time safety and state-awareness tools are therefore essential for the vehicle to be able to reach its destination in a safe and successful manner. The need for safety assurance and health management capabilities is particularly relevant for aircraft electric propulsion systems, which are relatively new and with limited historical to learn. They are critical systems requiring high power density along with reliability, resilience, efficient management of weight, and operational costs. A model- based fault diagnosis and prognostics approach of complex critical systems can successfully accomplish the safety and state awareness goal for such electric propulsion systems, enabling autonomous decision making capability for safe and efficient operation. To identify critical components in the system a Qualitative Bayesian approach using FMECA is implemented. This requires the assessment of some quantities representing the state of the electric unmanned aerial systems (e-UAS), as well as look-ahead forecasts of such states during the entire flight, presented in form of safety metrics (SM). In-service data and performance data gathered from degraded components sup- ports diagnostic and prognostic methods for these systems, but this data can be difficult to obtain as weight and packaging restrictions reduce redundancy and instrumentation on-board the vehicle. Therefore, an model-based framework should be capable or operating with limited data. In addition to data scarcity, the variability of such complex critical systems re- quires the model-based framework to reason in the presence of uncertainty, such as sensor noise, and modeling imperfections. Quantification of errors and uncertainties in the measured states and quantities is therefore a fundamental step for a precise estimation of such SMs; un-modeled uncertainty may result in erroneous state assessment and un- reliable predictions of future states of e-UAVs. Typical, centralized model-based schemes suffer from inherent disadvantages such as computational complexity, single point of failure, and scalability issues, and therefore may fail in such a complex scenario. This paper presents a methodology for developing a system level diagnostics and prognostics approach using a Qualitative Bayesian FMECA approach along with a formal uncertainty management framework for an e-UAS. In this work we demonstrate the efficacy of the framework to predict effects of sub-system level degradation on vehicle operation incorporating uncertainty management to predict future behavior under different operating conditions.

Kulkarni, Chetan↗
NASA NTRS2002

Alternative Metrics for Evaluating the Resilence of Advanced Life Support Systems

Ensuring the safety of the crew is a key performance requirement of a life support system. However, a number of conceptual and practical difficulties arise when devising metrics to concretely measure the ability of a life support system to maintain critical functions in the presence of anticipated and unanticipated faults. Resilience is a dynamic property of a life support system that depends on the complex interactions between faults, controls and system hardware. We review some of the approaches to understanding the robustness or resilience of complex systems being developed in diverse fields such as ecology, software engineering and cell biology and discuss their applicability to regenerative life support systems. We also consider how approaches to measuring resilience vary depending on system design choices such as the definition and choice of the nominal operating regime. Finally, we explore data collection and implementation issues such as the key differences between the instantaneous or conditional and average or overall measures of resilience. Extensive simulation of a hybrid computational model of a water revitalization subsystem (WRS) with probabilistic, component-level faults provides data about off-nominal behavior of the system. The data are used to consider alternative measures of resilience as predictors of the system's ability to recover from component-level faults.

Bell, Ann Maria↗
NASA NTRS2019

Seasonal Variation in Martian Water Ice Cloud Particle Size

We employ the complete record of Mars limb-viewing observations by the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer, totaling 922 successful retrievals, to chart the seasonal variation in water ice cloud particle size. Low-latitude clouds exhibit particle size sorting with altitude at all seasons, with particles ranging from >3.0 m in effective radius to 1.01.5 m. However, at a given altitude, the ice particle size often varies through the year. Ice particle sizes in the tropics follow a different seasonal cycle than ice mixing ratio. North polar clouds have a complex seasonal cycle, with a sloped size profile with altitude as the polar hood cloud forms in early fall trending to a roughly uniform 1.5 m profile by the end of winter. These data are an important metric to validate and improve general circulation model microphysical routines and to better understand how martian water ice clouds influence the atmospheric radiative budget.

Scott D. Guzewich↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms for Fire Prediction in Southeast Asia

Vegetation fires are prevalent in South/Southeast Asian countries, making fire prediction crucial due to their potential environmental, economic, and social impacts. Accurate predictions of fires facilitate timely interventions, helping to mitigate uncontrolled fires that can lead to biodiversity loss and air quality issues. In this study, we utilize VIIRS satellite-derived fire data alongside six machine learning and deep learning models—Simple Persistence, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), CNN-LSTM, and ConvLSTM—to determine the most effective fire prediction model, using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the metric. Our results indicate that the CNN model is the most reliable in regions with spatial dependencies, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Thailand. Conversely, the ConvLSTM model excels in countries with complex spatiotemporal dynamics like Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. The CNN-LSTM hybrid model also performed well in Cambodia, suggesting a need for a balanced approach in areas requiring both spatial and temporal feature extraction. Furthermore, simpler models like Persistence and MLP showed limitations in capturing dynamic patterns and temporal dependencies. Our findings highlight the importance of evaluating models before implementing any decision support systems (DSS) in fire management. By tailoring models to specific regional fire data, we can enhance prediction accuracy and responsiveness, ultimately improving fire risk management in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Deep learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lunar Proving Grounds Definition

The Lunar Surface Innovation Consortium (LSIC) is hosting a hybrid Lunar Proving Grounds Definition Workshop, July 12-13,2023, at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, and on Zoom. The topic of facilities needed for testing hardware destined for the Moon and the need for Earth-based ‘Lunar Proving Grounds’ for testing systems has come up across all six Focus Areas of LSIC. While facilities exist for component- and instrument- level technology maturation (e.g., up to system/subsystem demo in relevant environments), and there are potential flight opportunities for component maturation to flight-qualified and even flight-proved systems, the Artemis Program vision for a sustained presence and transition to industry (e.g., the Moon to Mars Objectives and the LSIC “Path to an Enduring Lunar Presence” white paper) suggests an architecture of integrated systems and systems of systems more complex than Apollo or the International Space Station. Some questions we aim to address through this workshop include: (1) How will validation and verification of these systems and interactions, including human-robotic operations, be accomplished? (2) What metrics need to be tested, and thus what capabilities will such a facility or facilities need? (3) Which functionalities can be tested separately and which need to synergize? What can be the role of digital engineering?

Proving Grounds↗
NASA NTRS2012

Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

Sridhar, Banavar↗
NASA NTRS2014

Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration (ESI) Risk. An ESI risk may require visibility and risk handling by multiple organizations. The Integrated Risk Working Group (IRWG) is a small team of Risk experts that are responsible for collaborating and communicating best practices. In addition, the forum facilitates proper integration of risks across the Enterprise. The IRWG uses a Continuous Risk Management approach for facilitating the identification, analysis, planning, tracking, and controlling of ESI Risks. The ESD Division, Programs, and Integrated Task Teams identify ESI Risks. The IRWG maintains a set of metrics for understanding Enterprise Risk process and the overall Risk Posture. The team is also actively involved in the modeling of risk for Enterprise Performance Management. With the Enterprise being constrained in Schedule and Budget, and with significant technical complexity, the appropriate use of Risk Management techniques is crucial to the success of the Enterprise. The IRWG achieves this through the modified approach, providing a forum for collaboration on risks that cross boundaries between the separate entities.

Bauder, Stephen P.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Exploration Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Levels and Ultrasound Measures of the Eye During ISS Missions

Enhanced screening for the Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) Syndrome, including in-flight ultrasound, was implemented in 2010 to better characterize the changes in vision observed in some long-duration crewmembers. Suggested possible risk factors for VIIP include cardiovascular changes, diet, anatomical and genetic factors, and environmental conditions. As a potent vasodilator, carbon dioxide (CO (sub 2)), which is chronically elevated on the International Space Station (ISS) relative to typical indoor and outdoor ambient levels on Earth, seems a plausible contributor to VIIP. In an effort to understand the possible associations between CO (sub 2) and VIIP, this study analyzes the relationship between ambient CO (sub 2) levels on ISS and ultrasound measures of the eye obtained from ISS fliers. CO (sub 2) measurements will be pulled directly from Operational Data Reduction Complex for the Lab and Node 3 major constituent analyzers (MCAs) on ISS or from sensors located in the European Columbus module, as available. CO (sub 2) measures between ultrasound sessions will be summarized using standard time series class metrics in MATLAB including time-weighted means and variances. Cumulative CO (sub 2) exposure metrics will also be developed. Regression analyses will be used to quantify the relationships between the CO (sub 2) metrics and specific ultrasound measures. Generalized estimating equations will adjust for the repeated measures within individuals. Multiple imputation techniques will be used to adjust for any possible biases in missing data for either CO (sub 2) or ultrasound measures. These analyses will elucidate the possible relationship between CO (sub 2) and changes in vision and also inform future analysis of inflight VIIP data.

Young, M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Regional to Global Assessments of Phytoplankton Dynamics From The SeaWiFS Mission

Photosynthetic production of organic matter by microscopic oceanic phytoplankton fuels ocean ecosystems and contributes roughly half of the Earth's net primary production. For 13 years, the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission provided the first consistent, synoptic observations of global ocean ecosystems. Changes in the surface chlorophyll concentration, the primary biological property retrieved from SeaWiFS, have traditionally been used as a metric for phytoplankton abundance and its distribution largely reflects patterns in vertical nutrient transport. On regional to global scales, chlorophyll concentrations covary with sea surface temperature (SST) because SST changes reflect light and nutrient conditions. However, the oceanmay be too complex to be well characterized using a single index such as the chlorophyll concentration. A semi-analytical bio-optical algorithm is used to help interpret regional to global SeaWiFS chlorophyll observations from using three independent, well-validated ocean color data products; the chlorophyll a concentration, absorption by CDM and particulate backscattering. First, we show that observed long-term, global-scale trends in standard chlorophyll retrievals are likely compromised by coincident changes in CDM. Second, we partition the chlorophyll signal into a component due to phytoplankton biomass changes and a component caused by physiological adjustments in intracellular chlorophyll concentrations to changes in mixed layer light levels. We show that biomass changes dominate chlorophyll signals for the high latitude seas and where persistent vertical upwelling is known to occur, while physiological processes dominate chlorophyll variability over much of the tropical and subtropical oceans. The SeaWiFS data set demonstrates complexity in the interpretation of changes in regional to global phytoplankton distributions and illustrates limitations for the assessment of phytoplankton dynamics using chlorophyll retrievals alone.

phytoplankton↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving the Fidelity of Capability & Resource Weighting in A Probalistic Risk Assessment Model for Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to provide an evidence-based, data-driven estimate of how medical system capabilities affect mission outcomes. IMPACT maps condition incidence to available resources thereby facilitating the calculation of outcome metrics that allow the estimation of mission medical risk. Conditions can be nominally categorized as either treated or untreated depending on the availability of necessary diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities. This categorization enables IMPACT to estimate the effect of various medical system configurations on mission outcomes such as crew mortality, disability, crew member down-time, return to duty/recovery, and need for evacuation. IMPACT currently employs an equal weighting, “partial credit” approach to define treatment in which each of the capabilities associated with a given condition contributes an equal amount to management of the condition. This feature enables IMPACT to report values in between “fully untreated” and “fully treated” based on the proportion of capabilities available within the model. However, as is normal in medical/clinical practice, not all individual capabilities contribute equally to medical care. For example, the ability to provide intramuscular epinephrine during an anaphylactic episode contributes more likelihood of overall management success than does the administration of oral diphenhydramine. We hypothesize that weighting the relative contribution of each capability to each specific condition will improve outcome prediction and therefore will better provide mission planners with more nuanced and accurate options when designing space medical systems. METHODS Using a five-point Fibonacci scaling sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8) subject matter experts from NASA’s Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) element assigned relative contribution weighting values to each identified capability within IMPACT. Since the relative importance of each capability varies depending on the specific condition, the resulting “partial” weighting was completed for more than 1,600 individual weighting assignments for 666 capabilities across 121 conditions. Each assignment required three-physician concurrence based on the overall importance of the capability to the diagnosis and management of the condition being considered and the difficulty with which it could be improvised by the crew. Once complete, 100,000 IMPACT simulations were run for a 6-month Lunar mission with a 30-day surface stay to evaluate the effect of this modification of the model. RESULTS Partial weighting significantly decreased predicted task time loss (TTL), evacuation, and loss of crew life without causing significant changes to the recommended medical system design. CONCLUSIONS The paucity of real-world referent data to support long-duration space missions of this type limits the ability to judge one predictive analytics method as superior to another. However, since the proposed method significantly reduces and optimizes outcome risks—without changing the medical system design—incorporating a partial weighting methodology is likely to provide a more accurate and operationally-relevant representation of medical risk without compromising IMPACTs ability to inform overarching medical system requirements.

Steller JG↗