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At least 235 records · Page 13

Long-Term Health Metric Development Effort

INTRODUCTION Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a methodology applied when high-stakes decisions need to be made about complex systems. PRA often uses risk minimization to aid decision making, such as when establishing vehicle requirements or resource allocations. The NASA Human System Risk Board (HSRB) maintains the human spaceflight risk postures, many of which have in-mission medical outcomes, but the full risk set also includes performance and Long-Term Health (LTH) outcomes. An effort is underway to determine the dependencies between LTH risk outcomes and mission characteristics and to identify metrics for quantifying LTH outcomes. The LTH metrics will be incorporated into future PRA tools currently under development to support crew health and performance decision making. LONG-TERM HEALTH (LTH) RISK LTH risk encompasses the timeframe from immediately post-flight, through the rest of an astronaut’s career, through retirement, and until death. LTH outcomes include the time and interventions needed for the astronaut to return to preflight physiological states after experiencing spaceflight hazards and recovery from any in-mission medical events that persist into the post-flight timeframe. It includes chronic complications that may arise due to experiencing in-flight medical conditions or injuries and medical conditions that occur later in life with a higher probability of occurrence or with more severity because of their spaceflight exposure. Finally, LTH outcomes can also include a reduction in life expectancy due to spaceflight exposures. Eighteen of the HSRB risks contain an LTH component, each with a unique incidence rate and consequence severity. ON-GOING LTH METRIC DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS Based on guidance from a stakeholder workshop held on June 1, 2023, only LTH outcomes with causes tied to spaceflight experience that are significantly different from normal healthy aging and which can be affected by changes in in-mission resources are targeted for inclusion within the PRA modeling efforts. Current on-going efforts include a sensitivity analysis of potential in-flight medical conditions to determine which conditions may persist into post-flight and how the consequences may be affected by in-mission medical resources. Also underway is determination of differences in the time for a return to preflight physiological baselines when in-flight countermeasures are available versus when they are not. Analyses performed with publicly available astronaut data and collaborations with the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health team are being designed to understand which LTH outcomes differ significantly from natural healthy aging. Information exchanges are also occurring with LTH risk custodians to understand how they quantify outcomes. FUTURE PLANS Risk characteristics will be determined for each LTH risk that meets our inclusion criteria and the dependencies of their outcomes to in-mission resources and mission characteristics will be established. The individual risks will be integrated together into one or more high level LTH metrics for inclusion in the PRA tool, so that LTH risks can be considered along with in-mission risks during crew health and performance system decision support trade studies.

B. E. Lewandowski↗

Techno-economic analysis of bioplastic and biofuel production from a high-ash microalgae biofilm cultivated in effluent from a municipal anaerobic digester

Rotating Algae Biofilm Reactors (RABRs) are a promising technology for efficient treatment of wastewater and production of algae-based bioproducts. However, RABR-grown algae can contain a high content of ash (30–60 wt%, dry basis), which influences the technical and economic feasibility of bioproduct conversion processes. In this report, experimental studies and economic analysis were conducted to compare different processes for bioproduct conversion of a high-ash microalgae biofilm grown using a RABR treating 0.6 million gallons per day of anaerobic digestion centrate at the Central Valley Water Reclamation Facility in Salt Lake City, UT. Process and economic models were developed and compared for three conversion processes: 1) the production of bioplastics, 2) the production of bioplastics with a lipid-extraction pretreatment, and 3) the production of biocrude via hydrothermal liquefaction. Techno-economic analysis was performed for each conversion process, including three cases for algae productivity: 231, 391, and 577 metric tons per year (dry basis). The calculated value for the minimum plastic selling price (MPSP) of bioplastics produced from algae ranges from $\$4050$ to $\$3520$ per metric ton based on the baseline and final productivity cases of the RABR, respectively. The extraction of lipids in addition to bioplastic production results in an MPSP of $\$4570$ to $\$4000$ per metric ton for the same productivity cases. The relatively small production scale and complex processing for hydrothermal liquefaction results in a minimum fuel selling price of the biocrude of $\$5.32$ per gallon of gasoline equivalent. In conclusion, the conversion process for bioplastic production from whole algae has the highest income:expense ratio and the most cost-competitive pricing of the three modeled processes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Effects of the Inverse Trans-Influence in a Berkelium(III) Phosphine Oxide Complex

An example of a 249 Bk 3+ phosphine oxide complex has been prepared to examine and quantify the effects of the inverse trans-influence (ITI) on a late actinide complex. This has been accomplished through a comparison of cis and trans Bk-ligand bonds in the meridional berkelium(III) complex, BkBr 3 (OPCy 3 ) 3 (OPCy 3 = tricyclohexylphosphine oxide). A detailed bond metric analysis was completed that includes the shortest published distance for a Bk 3+ −O bond, attributed to the smaller coordination number of Bk 3+ of six in mer-BkBr 3 (OPCy 3 ) 3 . ITI calculations of the trans Bk 3+ −O bond provide an ITI value (98.5(2)%) comparable to that of mer-AmBr 3 (OPCy 3 ) 3 (98.2(2)%) and indicate a small 5f orbital contribution to bonding. This effect is discussed in the context of the isomorphous lanthanide(III) series where the ITI is calculated to be higher for mer-BkBr 3 (OPCy 3 ) 3 than in most Ln 3+ analogues.

Actinides↗

Quantum computing for fusion energy science applications

This is a review of recent research exploring and extending present-day quantum computing capabilities for fusion energy science applications. We begin with a brief tutorial on both ideal and open quantum dynamics, universal quantum computation, and quantum algorithms. Then, we explore the topic of using quantum computers to simulate both linear and nonlinear dynamics in greater detail. Because quantum computers can only efficiently perform linear operations on the quantum state, it is challenging to perform nonlinear operations that are generically required to describe the nonlinear differential equations of interest. In this work, we extend previous results on embedding nonlinear systems within linear systems by explicitly deriving the connection between the Koopman evolution operator, the Perron–Frobenius evolution operator, and the Koopman–von Neumann evolution (KvN) operator. We also explicitly derive the connection between the Koopman and Carleman approaches to embedding. Extension of the KvN framework to the complex-analytic setting relevant to Carleman embedding, and the proof that different choices of complex analytic reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces depend on the choice of Hilbert space metric are covered in the appendixes. Finally, we conclude with a review of recent quantum hardware implementations of algorithms on present-day quantum hardware platforms that may one day be accelerated through Hamiltonian simulation. We discuss the simulation of toy models of wave–particle interactions through the simulation of quantum maps and of wave–wave interactions important in nonlinear plasma dynamics.

Joseph, I. (ORCID:0000000255400840)↗

PMU Data Quality and Sensor Health Monitoring

Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) play a critical role in the evolution of the electric power industry by providing high-precision, real-time monitoring of essential power system metrics. However, effectively detecting abnormalities and critical events from PMU data is a complex task, complicated by intricate temporal patterns, a scarcity of labeled data for training algo- rithms, and constraints on online computational power. In this study, we apply TranAD, an innovative algorithm that combines transformer architectures with the refinement of adversarial learning, to both synthetic and real-world PMU datasets for developing a data quality and sensor online health monitoring platform for utilities. Our findings reveal that TranAD not only provides efficient detection and localization but also enhances the detail with which abnormalities are detected, marking a a significant step forward in the field of clean data acquisition processes for power system monitoring

deep neural network, machine learning (ML)↗

Hotel Room Computational Fluid Dynamics to Investigate Airborne Pathogen Dispersal Patterns

A hotel room unit consisting of a bedroom and bathroom was modelled using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to investigate airborne pathogen dispersal patterns. The full-scale model includes a ‘typical’ hotel room configuration, furniture, and vents. The air sources and sinks include a bathroom vent, a heating, ventilation, and cooling (HVAC) unit located in the bedroom, and a ½” gap at the bottom of the entry door. In addition, the entry door and window can be opened or closed, as desired. Three key configuration simulations were conducted: 1) both the bathroom vent and HVAC were on, 2) only the HVAC was on, and 3) only the bathroom vent was on. If the HVAC air is from a fresh, clean source, or passes through a high-efficiency filter/UV device, then the first configuration is the safest, as contaminated air is highly reduced. The second configuration is also safe, but does not benefit from the outsourcing of potentially-infected air, such as contaminated air flowing through an ineffective filter. The third configuration should be avoided, as the bathroom vent causes air to flow from the hallway, which can be of dubious origin. The CFD simulations also showed that recirculation and swirling regions tend to accumulate the largest concentrations of heavier airborne particles, pathogens, dust, etc. These regions are associated with the largest turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) , and tend to occur in areas with flow recirculation and corners. Therefore, TKE presents a reasonable metric to guide the strategic location of pathogen mitigation devices. The simulations show complex flow patterns with distinct upper and lower flow regions, swirling flow, and significant levels of turbulent mixing. These simulations provide intriguing insights that can be applied to help mitigate pathogen aerosol dispersal, generate building design guidelines, as well as provide insights for the strategic placement of mitigation devices, such as ultraviolet (UV) light, supplemental fans, and filters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mass Balance Accounting for CO 2 Storage with Enhanced Oil Recovery in Northern Michigan

The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) was founded in 2003 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership initiative. Since its founding, MRCSP has made significant strides toward making CCUS a viable option for states in the region. The public/private consortium, funded through the DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Initiative, brings together nearly 40 industry partners and 10 states. Battelle, as the project lead, oversees research, development and operations and coordinates activities among the partners. The incremental, phased approach has built a valuable knowledge base for the industry and paved the way for commercial-scale adoption of CCUS technologies. From 2008 to 2020, MRCSP Phase III focused on the development of large-scale injection projects. This report is part of a series of reports prepared under the Midwestern Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (MRCSP) Phase III (Development Phase). These reports summarize and detail the findings of the work conducted under the Phase III project. MRCSP monitoring efforts began in February 2013, with an overarching goal of monitoring at least 1 million metric tons (MT) of net CO 2 stored at a CO 2 -EOR complex in northern Michigan. This report highlights the mass balance accounting of injection, production and recycling activities at ten CO 2 -EOR reefs. The reefs that were monitored for CO 2 -EOR operations include a late-stage depleted reef, eight active CO 2 -EOR reefs and two new reefs added to the CO 2 -EOR complex where a CO 2 flood was initiated.

, production↗

Scalable Control Co-design for Resilient-by-Design Cyber Physical Systems

Critical infrastructure networks, such as power and transportation networks, are often modelled as cyber-physical systems. With ever increasing complexity of these systems, there is a need for newer and more relevant metrics and design tools that will co-optimize the physical system components and control policies to guarantee resilience against cyber and natural threats. To this end, a simulation-based control co-design computational framework that will concurrently determine the system and control parameters of a cyber-physical system to meet pre-specified resilience, operational and economic objectives has been developed. The capabilities of the developed co-design engine are demonstrated by designing the physical components and control parameters of a microgrid system that will meet its resiliency objectives when subjected to various cyber and physical threats.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO 2

Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO 2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is -0.36 to 0.29°C, with a model ensemble mean of -0.07 °C, median of -0.05°C, and standard deviation of 0.19°C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.

MacDougall, Andrew H.↗

Coding tradeoffs for improved performance of FH/MFSK systems in partial band noise

Partial band noise jamming can severely degrade the performance of frequency-hopped, M-ary frequency-shift keyed communciation systems. This paper illustrates the tradeoffs between channel coding, diversity, and block orthogonal (MFSK) modulation as a means of overcoming the advantage of worst case, non-adaptive (as opposed to repeat-back) partial band jamming. For ease of computation, the analysis relies on exponentially tight error bounds, and is based on a noncoherent detection metric that requires jamming state information for each hop. A more robust, less complex receiver structure which eliminates the jamming knowledge requirement is shown to degrade performance less than 2-1/2 dB. The coding tradeoffs discussed in this report are exemplified in the design of a hypothetical 32 kb/s military frequency-hopped communication link.

Levitt, B. K.↗

PC4CAST: A tool for DSN load forecasting and capacity planning

Effectively planning the use and evolution of the Deep Space Network (DSN) is a complex problem involving many parameters. The tool that models many of these complexities, yet requires simple structured inputs and provides concise easy-to-understand metrics to aid in the planning process is discussed. The tool, PC4CAST, is used for both load forecasting (predicting how well planned that DSN resources meet expected demand) and as a decision support tool in the capacity-planning process (determining the relative benefits of capacity expansion options). It is now in use in the TDA Planning Office, has been used in numerous studies, and is also being used by the JPL Multimission Operations System Office (MOSO) as an integral part of Resource Allocation Team activities. Experience using the tool has helped to identify additional requirements that will further improve the planning process, which can be met by future PC4CAST versions.

Loyola, S. J.↗

Low-Cost Approaches to Deep Space Missions

The past decade has brought about a radical transformation in NASA's planetary exploration program. At the beginning of this decade, NASA was focused on the Cassini mission to Saturn. Following on the heels of the successful Voyager and Galileo missions, Cassini represents the culmination of an evolution towards successively larger, more complex, and more expensive spacecraft. The Cassini spacecraft weighs in at over 5 metric tons, and carries an entry probe and a sophisticated suite of sensors supporting 27 different science investigations enabling a comprehensive scientific investigation of Saturn with a single spacecraft. The cost of this spacecraft exceeded $2B, including the cost of the large Titan IV launch vehicle. During Cassini development, NASA realized that it could no longer afford these "flagship" missions, and the agency moved aggressively towards a "faster, better, cheaper" design philosophy of focused science goals and simpler, rapidly-developed spacecraft, allowing much more frequent launches of smaller, lower-cost missions. The Mars Global Surveyor, launched in November 1996, is an example of this new paradigm. Developed in less than 3-years, MGS is only one-fifth the mass of Cassini, and only cost on the order of $220M. The reduced spacecraft mass allows use of the smaller, lower cost Delta launch vehicle. Currently in orbit about Mars, MGS carries a focused suite of six science instruments that are currently returning high-resolution remote sensing of the Martian surface. The future calls for continued even more aggressive mass and cost targets. Examples of these next-generation goals are embodied in the Mars Micromission spacecraft concept, targeted for launch in 2003. With a mass of only 200kg, this lightweight bus can be tailored to carry a variety of payloads to Mars or other inner-planet destinations. The design of the Micromission spacecraft enable them to be launched at extremely low cost as a secondary "piggyback" payload.

Squibb, G. F.↗

The International Space Station and the Space Debris Environment: 10 Years On

For just over a decade the International Space Station (ISS), the most heavily protected vehicle in Earth orbit, has weathered the space debris environment well. Numerous hypervelocity impact features on the surface of ISS caused by small orbital debris and meteoroids have been observed. In addition to typical impacts seen on the large solar arrays, craters have been discovered on windows, hand rails, thermal blankets, radiators, and even a visiting logistics module. None of these impacts have resulted in any degradation of the operation or mission of the ISS. Validating the rate of small particle impacts on the ISS as predicted by space debris environment models is extremely complex. First, the ISS has been an evolving structure, from its original 20 metric tons to nearly 300 metric tons (excluding logistics vehicles) ten years later. Hence, the anticipated space debris impact rate has grown with the increasing size of ISS. Secondly, a comprehensive visual or photographic examination of the complete exterior of ISS has never been accomplished. In fact, most impact features have been discovered serendipitously. Further complications include the estimation of the size of an impacting particle without knowing its mass, velocity, and angle of impact and the effect of shadowing by some ISS components. Inadvertently and deliberately, the ISS has also been the source of space debris. The U.S. Space Surveillance Network officially cataloged 65 debris from ISS from November 1998 to November 2008: from lost cameras, sockets, and tool bags to intentionally discarded equipment and an old space suit. Fortunately, the majority of these objects fall back to Earth quickly with an average orbital lifetime of less than two months and a maximum orbital lifetime of a little more than 15 months. The cumulative total number of debris object-years is almost exactly 10, the equivalent of one piece of debris remaining in orbit for 10 years. An unknown number of debris too small to be tracked and cataloged have also been generated, but normally with even shorter orbital lifetimes. Finally, eight collision avoidance maneuvers have been performed to avoid potential collisions between ISS and large, tracked space debris. The most recent such maneuver was accomplished by ESA's Automated Transfer Vehicle, the Jules Verne, just three months before the 10th anniversary of the launch of ISS's first element.

Johnson, Nicholas↗

Electrochemical metrics for corrosion resistant alloys

Abstract Corrosion is an electrochemical phenomenon. It can occur via different modes of attack, each having its own mechanisms, and therefore there are multiple metrics for evaluating corrosion resistance. In corrosion resistant alloys (CRAs), the rate of localized corrosion can exceed that of uniform corrosion by orders of magnitude. Therefore, instead of uniform corrosion rate, more complex electrochemical parameters are required to capture the salient features of corrosion phenomena. Here, we collect a database with an emphasis on metrics related to localized corrosion. The six sections of the database include data on various metal alloys with measurements of (1) pitting potential, E pit , (2) repassivation potential, E rp , (3) crevice corrosion potential, E crev , (4) pitting temperature, T pit , (5) crevice corrosion temperature, T crev , and (6) corrosion potential, E corr , corrosion current density, i corr , passivation current density, i pass , and corrosion rate. The experimental data were collected from 85 publications and include Al- and Fe-based alloys, high entropy alloys (HEAs), and a Ni-Cr-Mo ternary system. This dataset could be used in the design of highly corrosion resistant alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tools of the Future: How Decision Tree Analysis Will Impact Mission Planning

The universe is infinitely complex; however, the human mind has a finite capacity. The multitude of possible variables, metrics, and procedures in mission planning are far too many to address exhaustively. This is unfortunate because, in general, considering more possibilities leads to more accurate and more powerful results. To compensate, we can get more insightful results by employing our greatest tool, the computer. The power of the computer will be utilized through a technology that considers every possibility, decision tree analysis. Although decision trees have been used in many other fields, this is innovative for space mission planning. Because this is a new strategy, no existing software is able to completely accommodate all of the requirements. This was determined through extensive research and testing of current technologies. It was necessary to create original software, for which a short-term model was finished this summer. The model was built into Microsoft Excel to take advantage of the familiar graphical interface for user input, computation, and viewing output. Macros were written to automate the process of tree construction, optimization, and presentation. The results are useful and promising. If this tool is successfully implemented in mission planning, our reliance on old-fashioned heuristics, an error-prone shortcut for handling complexity, will be reduced. The computer algorithms involved in decision trees will revolutionize mission planning. The planning will be faster and smarter, leading to optimized missions with the potential for more valuable data.

Otterstatter, Matthew R.↗

Comparison of Artemis 2 and Artemis 5 Model Outcomes Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. This presentation will seek to compare IMPACT’s computational results upon potential complex space medical conditions (e.g., sprain/strain back or sleep disturbance) using IMPACT’s risk metrics and the associated optimized medical sets/kits between two Artemis missions: single segment Artemis 2 and multi-segmented Artemis 5. OVERVIEW By identifying potential medical conditions in space using input criteria such as crew quantity and composition, certain crew physical characteristics, mission duration and mission activities, IMPACT can produce analyses on the type of medical resources and capabilities needed to produce an optimized medical set/kit to address those medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. IMPACT’s risk metrics include loss of crew life (LOCL) – a measure of crew mortality due to medical conditions in space, return to definitive care (RTDC) – the need to perform crew evacuation, and task time lost (TTL) – a measure of the inability to perform activities due to crew disability. These risk metrics are applied to every medical condition identified by IMPACT’s computation analyses for every segment of the mission. Medical sets/kits are optimized to address these medical conditions but must fit within the stated Artemis Design Reference Mission (DRM) request for mass and volume physical size constraints. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION Using two Artemis missions, Artemis 2 and Artemis 5, IMPACT will provide the analyses for comparison of medical set/kit contents based upon mass and/or volume requirements and identify the at-risk medical conditions within both missions. This paper serves as an initial exploration of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk calculations between two crewed Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

probabilistic risk assessment↗

Visualizing Parallel Computer System Performance

Parallel computer systems are among the most complex of man's creations, making satisfactory performance characterization difficult. Despite this complexity, there are strong, indeed, almost irresistible, incentives to quantify parallel system performance using a single metric. The fallacy lies in succumbing to such temptations. A complete performance characterization requires not only an analysis of the system's constituent levels, it also requires both static and dynamic characterizations. Static or average behavior analysis may mask transients that dramatically alter system performance. Although the human visual system is remarkedly adept at interpreting and identifying anomalies in false color data, the importance of dynamic, visual scientific data presentation has only recently been recognized Large, complex parallel system pose equally vexing performance interpretation problems. Data from hardware and software performance monitors must be presented in ways that emphasize important events while eluding irrelevant details. Design approaches and tools for performance visualization are the subject of this paper.

Malony, Allen D.↗

Non-additive microbial community responses to environmental complexity

Environmental composition is a major, though poorly understood, determinant of microbiome dynamics. Here we ask whether general principles govern how microbial community growth yield and diversity scale with an increasing number of environmental molecules. By assembling hundreds of synthetic consortia in vitro, we find that growth yield can remain constant or increase in a non-additive manner with environmental complexity. Conversely, taxonomic diversity is often much lower than expected. To better understand these deviations, we formulate metrics for epistatic interactions between environments and use them to compare our results to communities simulated with experimentally-parametrized consumer resource models. We find that key metabolic and ecological factors, including species similarity, degree of specialization, and metabolic interactions, modulate the observed non-additivity and govern the response of communities to combinations of resource pools. Our results demonstrate that environmental complexity alone is not sufficient for maintaining community diversity, and provide practical guidance for designing and controlling microbial ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗