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At least 235 records · Page 13

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred↗

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (httl://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Until recently, the forecasters created each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent was to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred↗

Impact of combustion products from Space Shuttle launches on ambient air quality

The present work describes some multilayer diffusion models and a computer program for these models developed to predict the impact of ground clouds formed during Space Shuttle launches on ambient air quality. The diffusion models are based on the Gaussian plume equation for an instantaneous volume source. Cloud growth is estimated on the basis of measurable meteorological parameters: standard deviation of the wind azimuth angle, standard deviation of wind elevation angle, vertical wind-speed shear, vertical wind-direction shear, and depth of the surface mixing layer. Calculations using these models indicate that Space Shuttle launches under a variety of meteorological regimes at Kennedy Space Center and Vandenberg AFB are unlikely to endanger the exposure standards for HCl; similar results have been obtained for CO and Al2O3. However, the possibility that precipitation scavenging of the ground cloud might result in an acidic rain that could damage vegetation has not been investigated.

Dumbauld, R. K.↗

The carbon chemistry in interstellar clouds toward moderately reddened stars

New data for C2 toward X Per, HD 206267, HD 207198, and Gamma Cep, for CH and CN toward X Per, and for CO toward HD 207198 have been obtained. The column densities of CH, C2, CN, and CO toward the stars in the Cepheus OB2 association are similar to reddened directions in Perseus and in Ophiuchus, indicating a similarity in physical conditions for the foreground clouds. The available data for other directions have been analyzed and the resulting data applied to study the transition from a photochemical regime to a chemical regime. The data for N(CN), N(C2), and N(CO) have been plotted against N(CH) to elucidate the chemistry of carbon-bearing molecules more clearly. The observed trends for CN and C2 suggest a change in slope at N(CH) of roughly 5 x 10 to the 13th/sq cm. Below this value, photodestruction is predicted to dominate and the slope is determined by the photochemistry. For directions with more N(CH), a linear correlation consistent with destruction by chemical reactions is expected.

Federman, S. R.↗

On the Feasibility of Monitoring Carbon Monoxide in the Lower Troposphere from a Constellation of Northern Hemisphere Geostationary Satellites (PART 1)

By the end of the current decade, there are plans to deploy several geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite missions for atmospheric composition over North America, East Asia and Europe with additional missions proposed. Together, these present the possibility of a constellation of geostationary platforms to achieve continuous time-resolved high-density observations over continental domains for mapping pollutant sources and variability at diurnal and local scales. In this paper, we use a novel approach to sample a very high global resolution model (GEOS-5 at 7 km horizontal resolution) to produce a dataset of synthetic carbon monoxide pollution observations representative of those potentially obtainable from a GEO satellite constellation with predicted measurement sensitivities based on current remote sensing capabilities. Part 1 of this study focuses on the production of simulated synthetic measurements for air quality OSSEs (Observing System Simulation Experiments). We simulate carbon monoxide nadir retrievals using a technique that provides realistic measurements with very low computational cost. We discuss the sampling methodology: the projection of footprints and areas of regard for geostationary geometries over each of the North America, East Asia and Europe regions; the regression method to simulate measurement sensitivity; and the measurement error simulation. A detailed analysis of the simulated observation sensitivity is performed, and limitations of the method are discussed. We also describe impacts from clouds, showing that the efficiency of an instrument making atmospheric composition measurements on a geostationary platform is dependent on the dominant weather regime over a given region and the pixel size resolution. These results demonstrate the viability of the "instrument simulator" step for an OSSE to assess the performance of a constellation of geostationary satellites for air quality measurements.

GEOS-5↗

Overview of the Predictive Simulation Capability Element of the Plume Surface Interaction Project

As part of the Game Changing Development (GCD) Program, funded by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), the development of simulation capability for the prediction of extra-terrestrial Plume Surface Interaction (PSI) environments has been undertaken by the Fluid Dynamics Branch at NASA/MSFC. The GCD PSI Project, planned to be completed over a four year period, contains a Predictive Simulation Capability (PSC) Element focused on creating simulation capability for the reliable and accurate prediction of PSI in Martian (~650 Pa) and Lunar (vacuum) ambient environments. In addition to the PSC Element, the GCD Program also contains a companion Ground Testing Element for development of focused datasets for validation of predictive capability as well as a Flight-focused Instrumentation Element. This paper describes the PSC Element of the PSI Project as well as providing descriptions of recent accomplishments and remaining work. The overall structure of the PSC Element is broken down into four areas of focus. The first area is the Prediction of Plume Flow in low pressure environments. The development approach taken is the augmentation of the existing production-mode computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool Loci/Chem, with targeted extensions necessary to accurately model rarefied conditions found in both Martian and Lunar applications. Production readiness and validation of predictive capability are the major objectives of this task. The second area is the effect of mixed continuum/rarefied flow on crater development and ejecta sheets. A new CFD application, Loci/GGFS (Gas Granular Flow Solver), is being developed which implements an Eulerian/Eulerian two-phase model of gas- and soil-phases in order to simulate the soil erosion, crater formation, and soil ejecta transport in a fully coupled simulation. This task seeks to verify Loci/GGFS is production-ready as well as perform validation studies to determine the degree of predictive capability achieved by Loci/GGFS. The third area is focused on the details and extension of particle phase modeling of soil. In this task, Discrete Element Modeling (DEM) techniques are used to perform direct simulations of complex soil particles under the action of forcing similar to that to be cause by PSI. The simulation results are then used to construct closures to the Eulerian model of the soil phase used by Loci/GGFS. The fourth area is gas-particle interaction modeling. In this task, experiments are being conducted as well as detailed simulation results are being studied to further understand the complexities of gas-particle interactions in dilute, intermediate, and high soil volume fraction regimes. Improved models of particle drag and the particle turbulent kinetic energy (PTKE) resulting from the interaction of gas flows within particle clouds are the objective of this task.

Jeff West↗

Cool-flame Extinction During N-Alkane Droplet Combustion in Microgravity

Recent droplet combustion experiments onboard the International Space Station (ISS) have revealed that large n-alkane droplets can continue to burn quasi-steadily following radiative extinction in a low-temperature regime, characterized by negative-temperaturecoefficient (NTC) chemistry. In this study we report experimental observations of n-heptane, n-octane, and n-decane droplets of varying initial sizes burning in oxygen/nitrogen/carbon dioxide and oxygen/helium/nitrogen environments at 1.0, 0.7, and 0.5 atmospheric pressures. The oxygen concentration in these tests varied in the range of 14% to 25% by volume. Large n-alkane droplets exhibited quasi-steady low-temperature burning and extinction following radiative extinction of the visible flame while smaller droplets burned to completion or disruptively extinguished. A vapor-cloud formed in most cases slightly prior to or following the "cool flame" extinction. Results for droplet burning rates in both the hot-flame and cool-flame regimes as well as droplet extinction diameters at the end of each stage are presented. Time histories of radiant emission from the droplet captured using broadband radiometers are also presented. Remarkably the "cool flame" extinction diameters for all the three n-alkanes follow a trend reminiscent of the ignition delay times observed in previous studies. The similarities and differences among the n-alkanes during "cool flame" combustion are discussed using simplified theoretical models of the phenomenon

microgravity combustion↗

Low Pressure Experimental Simulation of Electrical Discharges Above and Inside a Cloud

A low pressure laboratory experiment to generate sporadic electrical discharges in either a particulate dielectric or air, representing a competing path of preferred electrical breakdown, was investigated. At high pressures, discharges occurred inside the dielectric particulate; at low pressures, discharges occurred outside the dielectric particulate; at a transition pressure regime, which depends on conductivity of the dielectric particulate, discharges were simultaneously generated in both particulate dielectric and air. Unique use of a particulate dielectric was critical for sporadic discharges at lower pressures which were not identical in character to discharges without the particulate dielectric. Application of these experimental results to the field of atmospheric electricity and simulation of the above-cloud type discharges that have recently been documented, called jets and sprites, are discussed.

Jarzembski, Maurice A.↗

Understanding Cirrus Ice Crystal Number Variability for Different Heterogeneous Ice Nucleation Spectra

Along with minimizing parameter uncertainty, understanding the cause of temporal and spatial variability of the nucleated ice crystal number, Ni, is key to improving the representation of cirrus clouds in climate models. To this end, sensitivities of Ni to input variables like aerosol number and diameter provide valuable information about nucleation regime and efficiency for a given model formulation. Here we use the adjoint model of the adjoint of a cirrus formation parameterization (Barahona and Nenes, 2009b) to understand Ni variability for various ice-nucleating particle (INP) spectra. Inputs are generated with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, and simulations are done with a theoretically derived spectrum, an empirical lab-based spectrum and two field-based empirical spectra that differ in the nucleation threshold for black carbon particles and in the active site density for dust. The magnitude and sign of Ni sensitivity to insoluble aerosol number can be directly linked to nucleation regime and efficiency of various INP. The lab-based spectrum calculates much higher INP efficiencies than field-based ones, which reveals a disparity in aerosol surface properties. Ni sensitivity to temperature tends to be low, due to the compensating effects of temperature on INP spectrum parameters; this low temperature sensitivity regime has been experimentally reported before but never deconstructed as done here.

Cirrus↗

On Assessing ERA5 and MERRA2 Representations of Cold-Air Outbreaks Across the Gulf Stream

The warm Gulf Stream sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strongly impact the evolution of winter clouds behind atmospheric cold fronts. Such cloud evolution remains challenging to model. The Gulf Stream is too wide within the ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalyses, affecting the turbulent surface fluxes. Known problems within the ERA5 boundary layer (too-dry and too-cool with too strong westerlies), ascertained primarily from ACTIVATE 2020 campaign aircraft dropsondes and secondarily from older buoy measurements, reinforce surface flux biases. In contrast, MERRA2 winter surface winds and air-sea temperature/humidity differences are slightly too weak, producing surface fluxes that are too low. Reanalyses boundary layer heights in the strongly-forced winter cold-air-outbreak regime are realistic, whereas late-summer quiescent stable boundary layers are too shallow. Nevertheless, the reanalysis biases are small, and reanalyses adequately support their use for initializing higher-resolution cloud process modeling studies of cold-air outbreaks.

Gulf stream↗

Massive superclusters as a probe of the nature and amplitude of primordial density fluctuations

It is pointed out that correlation studies of galaxy positions have been widely used in the search for information about the large-scale matter distribution. The study of rare condensations on large scales provides an approach to extend the existing knowledge of large-scale structure into the weakly clustered regime. Shane (1975) provides a description of several apparent massive condensations within the Shane-Wirtanen catalog, taking into account the Serpens-Virgo cloud and the Corona cloud. In the present study, a description is given of a model for estimating the frequency of condensations which evolve from initially Gaussian fluctuations. This model is applied to the Corona cloud to estimate its 'rareness' and thereby estimate the rms density contrast on this mass scale. An attempt is made to find a conflict between the density fluctuations derived from the Corona cloud and independent constraints. A comparison is conducted of the estimate and the density fluctuations predicted to arise in a universe dominated by cold dark matter.

Kaiser, N.↗

An analytic model of the neutral cloud evolution in the earth's atmosphere

An analytic model for the expansion of a chemically reacting gas in the upper atmosphere is discussed. The spatial-temporal distribution of released particles in the initial regime is described on the basis of self-similar solutions of Euler's equations. In the case of transition to the diffusion regime an approximate solution of the kinetic equation with the collision integral in the form of BGK is performed. Gravitation and the atmospheric inhomogeneity are taken into account, The diffusion regime is described by an analytic solution of the diffusion equation in an exponential atmosphere taking account of possible losses of the gas due to chemical reactions. Some peculiarities of the expansion of various gases as well as the possibility of applying the model for describing ionospheric 'holes' are discussed.

Bruskin, L. G.↗

Analysis of ISO Data

A block grant supported several astronomers who executed observing programs using the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO). The ISO project in which Harriet Dinerstein participated was a study of sulfur and neon abundances in extragalactic H II regions using the ISO Short Wavelength Spectrometer (SWS). Evans and Jaffe, along with collaborators Ewine van Dishoeck and Wing-Fai Thi, and then graduate student Wenbin Li, carried out an in-depth study of the peripheral region of the molecular cloud L1204/S140, where the far ultraviolet radiation and the density are relatively low. Their observations test theories of photon-dominated regions (PDRs) in a regime that has been little explored. One ISO program was involved with PHT-32 observations of about a dozen young stars to search for extended emission that could be modeled with our dust-modeling-code at UT. The document reports on preliminary analysis of PHT 32 scanning of 10 pre-main-sequence stars at 50 and 100 microns. A small sample of R Coronae Borealis stars was observed with the SWS.

David L. Lambert↗

Time scales for molecule formation by ion-molecule reactions

Analytical solutions are obtained for nonlinear differential equations governing the time-dependence of molecular abundances in interstellar clouds. Three gas-phase reaction schemes are considered separately for the regions where each dominates. The particular case of CO, and closely related members of the Oh and CH families of molecules, is studied for given values of temperature, density, and the radiation field. Nonlinear effects and couplings with particular ions are found to be important. The time scales for CO formation range from 100,000 to a few million years, depending on the chemistry and regime. The time required for essentially complete conversion of C(+) to CO in the region where the H3(+) chemistry dominates is several million years. Because this time is longer than or comparable to dynamical time scales for dense interstellar clouds, steady-state abundances may not be observed in such clouds.

Langer, W. D.↗

Characterizing the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Aerosol Optical Thickness Over the Atlantic Basin Utilizing GOES-8 Multispectral Data

In recent years, modeling and analysis efforts have suggested that the direct and indirect radiative effects of both anthropogenic and natural aerosols play a major role in the radiative balance of the earth and are an important factor in climate change calculations. The direct effects of aerosols on radiation and indirect effects on cloud properties are not well understood at this time. In order to improve the characterization of aerosols within climate models it is important to accurately parameterize aerosol forcing mechanisms at the local, regional, and global scales. This includes gaining information on the spatial and temporal distribution of aerosols, transport regimes and mechanisms, aerosol optical thickness, and size distributions. Although there is an expanding global network of ground measurements of aerosol optical thickness and size distribution at specific locations, satellite data must be utilized to characterize the spatial and temporal extent of aerosols and transport regimes on regional and global scales. This study was part of a collaborative effort to characterize aerosol radiative forcing over the Atlantic basin associated with the following three major aerosol components in this region: urban/sulfate, Saharan dust, and biomass burning. In-situ ground measurements obtained by a network of sun photometers during the Smoke Clouds and Radiation Experiment in Brazil (SCAR-B) and the Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) were utilized to develop, calibrate, and validate a Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-8 aerosol optical thickness (AOT) product. Regional implementation of the GOES-8 AOT product was used to augment point source measurements to gain a better understanding of the spatial and temporal distributions of Atlantic basin aerosols during SCAR-B and TARFOX.

Fox, Robert↗

Use of microwave satellite data to study variations in rainfall over the Indian Ocean

The University of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center mapped rainfall over the Indian Ocean using a newly developed Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) rain-retrieval algorithm. The short-range objective was to characterize the distribution and variability of Indian Ocean rainfall on seasonal and annual scales. In the long-range, the objective is to clarify differences between land and marine regimes of monsoon rain. Researchers developed a semi-empirical algorithm for retrieving Indian Ocean rainfall. Tools for this development have come from radiative transfer and cloud liquid water models. Where possible, ground truth information from available radars was used in development and testing. SMMR rainfalls were also compared with Indian Ocean gauge rainfalls. Final Indian Ocean maps were produced for months, seasons, and years and interpreted in terms of historical analysis over the sub-continent.

Hinton, Barry B.↗

Wire Insulation Flammability Experiment: USML-1 One Year Post Mission Summary

Herein we report the results from the Wire Insulation Flammability (WIF) Experiment performed in the Glovebox Facility on the USML-1 mission. This experiment explored various aspects of electrically induced fire scenarios in a reduced gravity environment. Under quiescent microgravity conditions, heat and mass transfer are dominated by diffusive and radiative transport; while in normal-gravity buoyancy induced convection often dominates. Of considerable scientific and practical interest is the intermediate situation of combustion occurring in the presence of imposed gas flows, with lower characteristic velocities than those induced by buoyancy in noma1 gravity. Two distinct cases naturally arise: flow direction opposed to, or concurrent with, the flame spread direction. Two tests of each kind were conducted in the WIF experiment, providing the first controlled demonstration of flame spreading in forced convection ever conducted in space. Four test modules were flown. The wire insulation, 1.5 mm in diameter, was polyethylene, extruded onto nichrome wire. Temperatures of the wh3 cores and insulation heated in quiescent and flowing environments were measured. Video and still-camera images of the samples, burning in air flowing at approximately 10 cm/sec, were recorded to obtain flame characteristics including spread rate, structure and temperature. Flame spread rates in concurrent flow were approximately twice those in opposed flow. In concurrent and opposed flow regimes, the spreading flames stabilized around a bead of molten insulation material, within which bubble nucleation was observed. An ignition attempt without flow mated a quiescent cloud of vaporized fuel which ignited dramatically yet failed to sustain normal flame spread. Finally, all tests produced substantial soot agglomerates, particularly the concurrent flow tests; and the collected soot has a morphology very distinct from soot formed in normal gravity flames. Several unexpected and unique microgravity combustion phenomena were observed.

Greenberg, Paul S.↗

Large-Scale Covariability Between Aerosol and Precipitation Over the 7-SEAS Region: Observations and Simulations

One of the seven scientific areas of interests of the 7-SEAS field campaign is to evaluate the impact of aerosol on cloud and precipitation (http://7-seas.gsfc.nasa.gov). However, large-scale covariability between aerosol, cloud and precipitation is complicated not only by ambient environment and a variety of aerosol effects, but also by effects from rain washout and climate factors. This study characterizes large-scale aerosol-cloud-precipitation covariability through synergy of long-term multi ]sensor satellite observations with model simulations over the 7-SEAS region [10S-30N, 95E-130E]. Results show that climate factors such as ENSO significantly modulate aerosol and precipitation over the region simultaneously. After removal of climate factor effects, aerosol and precipitation are significantly anti-correlated over the southern part of the region, where high aerosols loading is associated with overall reduced total precipitation with intensified rain rates and decreased rain frequency, decreased tropospheric latent heating, suppressed cloud top height and increased outgoing longwave radiation, enhanced clear-sky shortwave TOA flux but reduced all-sky shortwave TOA flux in deep convective regimes; but such covariability becomes less notable over the northern counterpart of the region where low ]level stratus are found. Using CO as a proxy of biomass burning aerosols to minimize the washout effect, large-scale covariability between CO and precipitation was also investigated and similar large-scale covariability observed. Model simulations with NCAR CAM5 were found to show similar effects to observations in the spatio-temporal patterns. Results from both observations and simulations are valuable for improving our understanding of this region's meteorological system and the roles of aerosol within it. Key words: aerosol; precipitation; large-scale covariability; aerosol effects; washout; climate factors; 7- SEAS; CO; CAM5

Huang, Jingfeng↗