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Short Time Scale Stability Monitoring of GOES-16 Visible Channels by Utilizing Daily Inter-Calibration Events with both VIIRS and MODIS Sensors

The CERES project relies on MODIS, VIIRS and geostationary (GEO) imager retrieved cloud properties to compute surface fluxes and convert CERES and GEO radiances into TOA fluxes. The CERES TOA and surface fluxes need to be of climate quality and any anomaly or discontinuity in the calibration of the MODIS, VIIRS, GEO radiances need to be mitigated or avoided. Due to the nature of the CERES instrument calibration, there is a lag time of 3 months before the processing of the CERES product. This allows the CERES team to investigate any unforeseen problems in the input datasets or GEO calibration discontinuities or anomalies before processing. The CERES geostationary imager calibration team is developing a daily monitoring system of GEO, MODIS and VIIRS visible channel radiances in order to detect any day to day discontinuities as part of the CERES/GEO coincident ray-matching calibration efforts. a GEO discontinuity can be detected using two MODIS and 2 VIIRS sensors simultaneously, thus increasing the sampling greatly over a single GEO/LEO radiance pairs. This method is being automated and has already detected three erroneous radiometric calibration events, which were verified with the GOES-16 event log page. One advantage of daily monitoring is that the time period needed to verify calibration drifts is reduced and the confidence to detect even smaller magnitudes of the calibration drift is increased over monthly monitoring. By utilizing Terra and Aqua MODIS and NPP and NOAA20 VIIRS imagers to inter-calibrate GOES-16, the GOES-16 calibration can be referenced to anyone of these imagers. If the CERES project transitions between the Aqua-MODIS imager to the NOAA20 VIIRS imager, the NOAA-20 VIIRS imager can be radiometrically scale to Aqua-MODIS calibration, thus avoiding a GOES-16 calibration discontinuity.

David Robert Doelling↗

NASA NTRS1998

Towards quantifying mesoscale flows in the troposphere using Raman lidar and Sondes

Water vapor plays an important role in the energetics of the boundary layer processes which in turn play a key role in regulating regional and global climate. It plays a primary role in Earth's hydrological cycle, in radiation balance as a direct absorber of infrared radiation, and in atmospheric circulation as a latent heat energy source, as well as in determining cloud development and atmospheric stability. Water vapor concentration, expressed as a mass mixing ratio (g kg(exp -l)), is conserved in all meteorological processes except condensation and evaporation. This property makes it an ideal choice for studying many of the atmosphere's dynamic features. Raman scattering measurements from lidar also allow retrieval of water vapor mixing ratio profiles at high temporal and vertical resolution. Raman lidars sense water vapor to altitudes not achievable with towers and surface systems, sample the atmosphere at much higher temporal resolution than radiosondes or satellites, and do not require strong vertical gradients or turbulent fluctuations in temperature that is required by acoustic sounders and radars. Analysis of highly-resolved water vapor profiles are used here to characterize two important mesoscale flows: thunderstorm outflows and a cold front passage. The data were obtained at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Site (CART) by the groundbased Department of Energy/Sandia National Laboratories lidar (CART Raman lidar or CARL) and Goddard Space Flight Center Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL). A detailed discussion of the SRL and CARL performance during the IOPs is given by others in this meeting.

Demoz, B.↗

NASA NTRS2019

The NASA OBPG 2020 On-Orbit Calibration of SNPP VIIRS for Ocean Color Applications

The NASA Ocean Biology Processing Group (OBPG) has continued monitoring the SNPP VIIRS on-orbit calibration for bands M1-M11 over its mission to optimize the calibration for ocean color applications. The OBPG has recently implemented several changes to the calibration scheme: using solar-derived f-factors to detrend the lunar observations; using long-term exponentials of time as basis vectors (along with libration angles) for radiometric fits to any resulting lunar temporal drifts; deriving gain adjustments to the solar f-factors from these exponentials; and deriving gain adjustments due to modulated RSRs outside of the solar/lunar calibration using TOA reference spectra. These calibration changes minimize the impact of uncertainties in any one component of the calibration on the derived f-factors. The final f-factors incorporate VIIRS solar diffuser measurements, h-factor BRDF corrections, lunar-derived gains, and modulated RSR gains. The combined BRDF corrections, lunar gain adjustments, and mRSR gain adjustments define effective h-factors for each band. The improvements in the on-orbit calibration are validated by evaluation of globally-derived anomaly plots of remote sensing reflectance for the ocean color bands. The ultimate goal of the OBPG calibration effort is incorporation of a consistent SNPP VIIRS ocean color data set into the NASA multi-mission ocean color climate data record.

VIIRS↗

NASA NTRS1984

Numerical Modeling of the Atmosphere

Numerical models and numerical analyses of observations were used to improve the understanding of the physical processes important in global weather and climate. Results from a study of the effect of baroclinic waves on mid-latitude vertical temperature structure show that the waves' vertical eddy heat flux tend to eliminate the potential vorticity gradient near the steering level by causing the static stability to decrease rapidly with height in the lower troposphere above the boundary layer. An empirical study of the relationship between eddy heat fluxes and the meridional temperature gradient has been completed. The results indicate that the feedback in the flux-gradient system is comparable to dissipation on all time scales between the synoptic and the seasonal. The definition of the Eliassen-Palm flux and the Eliassen-Palm and non-acceleration theorems has been generalized to include eddy forcing of condensation. Calculations based on the generalized diagnostics showed that the annual mean eddy forcing of the zonal mean zonal wind is two and one half times stronger when the condensation effects are included.

Stone, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS2009

On-Orbit Calibration and Performance of Aqua MODIS Reflective Solar Bands

Aqua MODIS has successfully operated on-orbit for more than 6 years since its launch in May 2002, continuously making global observations and improving studies of changes in the Earth's climate and environment. 20 of the 36 MODIS spectral bands, covering wavelengths from 0.41 to 2.2 microns, are the reflective solar bands (RSB). They are calibrated on-orbit using an on-board solar diffuser (SD) and a solar diffuser stability monitor (SDSM). In addition, regularly scheduled lunar observations are made to track the RSB calibration stability. This paper presents Aqua MODIS RSB on-orbit calibration and characterization activities, methodologies, and performance. Included in this study are characterizations of detector signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), short-term stability, and long-term response change. Spectral wavelength dependent degradation of the SD bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) and scan mirror reflectance, which also varies with angle of incidence (AOI), are examined. On-orbit results show that Aqua MODIS onboard calibrators have performed well, enabling accurate calibration coefficients to be derived and updated for the Level 1B (L1B) production and assuring high quality science data products to be continuously generated and distributed. Since launch, the short-term response, on a scan-by-scan basis, has remained extremely stable for most RSB detectors. With the exception of band 6, there have been no new RSB noisy or inoperable detectors. Like its predecessor, Terra MODIS, launched in December 1999, the Aqua MODIS visible (VIS) spectral bands have experienced relatively large changes, with an annual response decrease (mirror side 1) of 3.6% for band 8 at 0.412 microns, 2.3% for band 9 at 0.443 microns, 1.6% for band 3 at 0.469 microns, and 1.2% for band 10 at 0.488 microns. For other RSB bands with wavelengths greater than 0.5 microns, the annual response changes are typically less than 0.5%. In general, Aqua MODIS optics degradation is smaller than Terra MODIS and the mirror side differences are much smaller. Overall, Aqua MODIS RSB on-orbit performance is better than Terra MODIS.

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗

NASA NTRS2011

Quantifying the Aerosol Semi-Direct Effect in the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM

Aerosols such as black carbon, dust, and some organic carbon species both scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation. This direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF) redistributes solar energy both by cooling the surface and warming the atmosphere. As a result, these aerosols affect atmospheric stability and cloud cover (the semi-direct effect, or SDE). Furthermore, in regions with persistent high loadings of absorbing aerosols (e.g. Asia), regional circulation patterns may be altered, potentially resulting in changes in precipitation patterns. Here we investigate aerosol-climate coupling using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), in which we have implemented an online version of the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. GOCART includes representations of the sources, sinks, and chemical transformation of externally mixed dust, sea salt, sulfate, and carbonaceous aerosols. We examine a series of free-running ensemble climate simulations of the present-day period (2000-2009) forced by observed sea surface temperatures to determine the impact of aerosols on the model climate. The SDE and response of each simulation is determined by differencing with respect to the control simulation (no aerosol forcing). In a free-running model, any estimate of the SDE includes changes in clouds due both to atmospheric heating from aerosols and changes in circulation. To try and quantify the SDE without these circulation changes we then examine the DARF and SDE in GEOS-5 with prescribed meteorological analyses introduced by the MERRA analysis. By doing so, we are able to examine changes in model clouds that occur on shorter scales (six hours). In the GEOS-5 data assimilation system (DAS), the analysis is defined as the best estimate of the atmospheric state at any given time, and it is determined by optimally combining a first-guess short-term GCM forecast with all available observations. The Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) is added to the model forecast tendencies to align them with the analysis every six hours, thus preventing longer timescale feedbacks due to the aerosol forcing. We calculate the SDE by comparing model runs with and without aerosols, and the difference in the IAU between these runs is a useful metric with which to evaluate the impact of the SDE on the model atmosphere and clouds. Decreasing the IAU indicates that the aerosol direct and semi-direct effects act to reduce the bias between the model and observations and vice versa.

Randles, Cynthia A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Seven Years of Observations of Mid-Tropospheric CO2 from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft was launched on May 4, 2002. AIRS acquires hyperspectral infrared radiances in the 3.7-15.4 um spectral region with spectral resolution of better than 1200. The AIRS was designed to measure temperature and water vapor profiles and cloud properties for improvement in weather forecast and improved parameterization of climate processes. Currently the AIRS Level 1B Radiance Products are assimilated by NWP centers and have shown considerable forecast improvement. Scientists have also demonstrated accurate retrievals of minor gases from AIRS including Carbon Monoxide, Methane, and Ozone. The excellent sensitivity and stability of the AIRS instrument has recently allowed the AIRS team to successfully retrieve Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the mid-troposphere (8-10 km) with a horizontal resolution of 100 km and accuracy of 1-2 ppm. The AIRS retrieves over 15,000 measurements per day and can achieve full global coverage in 30 days. The AIRS CO2 accuracy has been validated against a variety of aircraft measurements in the mid-troposphere and upward looking interferometers. Findings from the AIRS data include higher than expected variability in the mid-troposphere, the presence of a belt of CO2 in the southern hemisphere, and numerous observations of atmospheric circulation including the effects of El Nino/La Nina on the CO2 concentrations in the mid-troposphere. The full mid-tropospheric AIRS CO2 data set is now available at the NASA GES/DISC for almost eight years since AIRS has been operational.

carbon dioxide↗

NASA NTRS2015

The 27-Day Rotational Variations in Total Solar Irradiance Observations: from SORCE-TIM, ACRIMSAT-ACRIM III, and SOHO-VIRGO

During the last decade, observations from SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment)/TIM (Total Irradiance Monitor), ACRIMSAT (Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor Satellite)/ACRIM III, and SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory)VIRGO (Variability of IRradiance and Gravity Oscillations Sun PhotoMeter) provided the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) measurements with unprecedented accuracy and stability to determine the amount of solar irradiance reaching the top of the atmosphere and how solar irradiance varies in different time scales. These three independent measurements are analyzed using the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) method to characterize the phase and amplitude of 27-day solar rotational variation in TSI. The mode decomposition clearly identifies a 27-day solar rotational signature in TSI measurements. The rotational variations of TSI from the three independent observations are generally consistent with each other, despite different mean TSI values. During the declining phase of solar cycle 23, the amplitude of TSI 27-day variations is as high as 0.8 watts per square meter (approximately 0.05 percent), while during the rising phase of solar cycle 24, the amplitude is up to 0.4 watts per square meter (approximately 0.04 percent). During the minimum phase (2008-2009), the amplitude of the rotational mode is only 0.1 watts per square meter. The correlation of this rotational mode between TIM and ACRIM III is approximately 0.92 and the slope of the local peak values is approximately 0.98. The correlation between TIM and VIRGO is approximately 0.96 and the slope of the local peak values isapproximately 0.98, very similar to the slope with ACRIM III.

ACRIM III↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE III) on the International Space Station (ISS) Mission

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) mission will provide the science community with high-vertical resolution and nearly global observations of ozone, aerosols, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, and other trace gas species in the stratosphere and upper-troposphere. SAGE III/ISS measurements will extend the long-term Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement (SAM) and SAGE data record begun in the 1970s. The multi-decadal SAGE ozone and aerosol data sets have undergone intense scrutiny and are considered the international standard for accuracy and stability. SAGE data have been used to monitor the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol. Key objectives of the mission are to assess the state of the recovery in the distribution of ozone, to re-establish the aerosol measurements needed by both climate and ozone models, and to gain further insight into key processes contributing to ozone and aerosol variability. The space station mid-inclination orbit allows for a large range in latitude sampling and nearly continuous communications with payloads. The SAGE III instrument is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring atmospheric constituents with high vertical resolution. The SAGE III instrument is a moderate resolution spectrometer covering wavelengths from 290 nm to 1550 nm. Science data is collected in solar occultation mode, lunar occultation mode, and limb scatter measurement mode. A SpaceX Falcon 9 launch vehicle will provide access to space. Mounted in the unpressurized section of the Dragon trunk, SAGE III will be robotically removed from the Dragon and installed on the space station. SAGE III/ISS will be mounted to the ExPRESS Logistics Carrier-4 (ELC-4) location on the starboard side of the station. To facilitate a nadir view from this location, a Nadir Viewing Platform (NVP) payload was developed which mounts between the carrier and the SAGE III Instrument Payload (IP).

Cisewski, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Exoplanet Climate Infrared TElescope (EXCITE)

Although there are a large number of known exoplanets, there is little data on their global atmospheric properties.Phase-resolved spectroscopy of transiting planets - continuous spectroscopic observation of planets during their full orbits - probes varied depths and longitudes in the atmospheres thus measuring their three-dimensional thermal and chemical structure and contributing to our understanding of their global circulation. Planets with characteristics suitable for atmospheric characterization have orbits of several days, so phase curve observations are highly resource intensive, especially for shared use facilities. The Exoplanet Climate Infrared TElescope (EXCITE) is a balloon-borne near-infrared spectrometer designed to observe from 1 to 5 meters to perform phase-resolved spectroscopy of hot Jupiters. Flying from a long duration balloon (LDB) platform, EXCITE will have the stability to continuously stare at targets for days at a time and the sensitivity to produce data of the quality and quantity needed to signicantly advance our understanding of exoplanet atmospheres. We describe the EXCITE design and show results of analytic and numerical calculations of the instrument sensitivity. We show that an instrument like EXCITE will produce a wealth of quality data, both complementing and serving as a critical bridge between current and future space-based near infrared spectroscopic instruments.

Spectroscopy↗

NASA NTRS1979

Variational formulation of Budyko-Sellers climate models

A class of simple climate models including those of the Budyko-Sellers type are formulated from a variational principle. A functional is constructed for the zonally averaged mean annual temperature field such that extrema of the functional occur when the climate satisfies the usual energy-balance equation. Local minima of the functional correspond to stable solutions while saddle points correspond to unstable solutions. The technique can be used to construct approximate solutions from trial functions and to carry out finite-amplitude stability analyses. A spectral example is given in explicit detail.

North, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Components of the ice age circulation

The effects of ice age boundary conditions on atmospheric dynamics and regional climate patterns are investigated using four GCM simulations. Particular consideration is given to sea surface temperature-sea ice distribution, the appearance of land ice, and the increased elevation of land ice. It is observed that the ice-age sea surface temperature stabilizes the atmosphere over the oceans, increases the frequency of storm tracking through central North America, and amplifies transient eddy energy without increasing baroclinic generation. It is detected that low-elevation ice generates low pressure over eastern North America and southern Europe in winter, while increasing cloud cover and cooling the land in summer. Elevation of the ice sheets cools the land in winter, further intensifies storms off northeastern North America, induces subsidence warming downstream of the European ice sheets in summer, and increases the transient and stationary eddy energy through increased baroclinicity.

Rind, D.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Sensible Heat Has Significantly Affected the Global Hydrological Cycle Over the Historical Period

Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability.

Myhre, G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Low-Level Cloud Variability over the Equatorial Cold Tongue in Observations and Models

A fourth paper now in press is, Low-level cloud variability over the equatorial cold tongue in observations and models, by D. K. Mansbach and J. R. Norris (2007, J. Climate). This study examined cloud and meteorological observations from satellite, surface, and reanalysis datasets and fount that monthly anomalies in low-level cloud amount and near-surface temperature advection are strongly negatively correlated on the southern side of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. This inverse correlation occurs independently of relationships between cloud amount and sea surface temperature (SST) or lower tropospheric static stability (LTS) and the combination of advection plus SST or LTS explains significantly more interannual cloud variability in a multilinear regression than does SST or LTS alone. Warm anomalous advection occurs when the equatorial cold tongue is well defined and the southeastern Pacific trade winds bring relatively warm air over colder water. Ship meteorological reports and soundings show that the atmospheric surface layer becomes stratified under these conditions, thus inhibiting the upward mixing of moisture needed to sustain cloudiness against subsidence and entrainment drying. Cold anomalous advection primarily occurs when the equatorial cold tongue is weak or absent and the air-sea temperature difference is substantially negative. These conditions favor a more convective atmospheric boundary layer, greater cloud amount, and less frequent occurrence of clear sky. Examination of output from global climate models developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) indicates that both models generally fail to simulate the cloud-advection relationships observed on the northern and southern sides of the equatorial cold tongue. Although the GFDL atmosphere model does reproduce the expected signs of cloud-advection correlations when forced with prescribed historical SST variations, it does not consistently do so when coupled to an ocean model. The NCAR model has difficulty reproducing the observed correlations in both atmosphere-only and coupled versions. This suggests that boundary layer cloud parameterizations could be improved through better representation of the effects of advection over varying SST.

Mansbach, David K.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Trends in sulfur dioxide over the Indian subcontinent during 2003–2019

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) and its oxidation products profoundly impact the air quality and climate. In recent decades, contrasting SO2 trends have been observed over different regions of the globe due to urbanization, energy generation and control measures. In this study, we have investigated the SO2 trends over the rapidly developing Indian subcontinent using model reanalysis, satellite data, and emission inventories during 2003–2019 period. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis shows rapid SO2 growth up to 0.4 ppbv/yr during 2003–2009, particularly significant over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and eastern India. However, the growth becomes slower after 2010 and is followed by a stabilization or slight reduction. The CAMS results agree with the satellite-based observations, however, the model underestimates enhancements over eastern India. The analysis of inventory datasets also suggests slower growths in SO2 emissions and coal-fired electricity generation in recent years. Besides the changes in regional emissions, the enhancements in water vapor and OH radical coinciding with SO2 stabilization indicate strengthening of the sink processes. Model simulation (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2―MERRA-2) with constant emissions shows reduction in SO2 which confirms the stronger chemical losses. Overall, the SO2 trends over the Indian subcontinent are found to be a manifestation of the combined effects of the regional emission change and chemistry. Our findings highlight the need for studies to assess the impacts of changing SO2 trends in India on the regional and global climate.

Lakhima Chutia↗

NASA NTRS1992

A comparison of the impact of two time-differencing schemes on the NASA-GLAS climate model

Evidence is presented of the sensitivity of a GCM to the time-differencing scheme employed when the physical parameterizations and space discretization are not changed. Two-time marching schemes, the leapfrog and the Matsuno schemes, are analyzed and tested on the NASA-Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Studies fourth-order GCM in terms of the behavior and stability of two-month-averaged fields. Linear analysis indicates that Rossby waves are slightly accelerated and slightly damped when the Matsuno scheme is utilized and that these effects are scale selective, being smallest for the longest waves.

Pfeffer, Richard L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Rotation of a Moonless Earth

We numerically explore the obliquity (axial tilt) variations of a hypothetical moonless Earth. Previous work has shown that the Earth's Moon stabilizes Earth's obliquity such that it remains within a narrow range, between 22.1 deg and 24.5 deg. Without lunar influence, a frequency-map analysis by Laskar et al. showed that the obliquity could vary between 0 deg. and 85 deg. This has left an impression in the astrobiology community that a large moon is necessary to maintain a habitable climate on an Earth-like planet. Using a modified version of the orbital integrator mercury, we calculate the obliquity evolution for moonless Earths with various initial conditions for up to 4 Gyr. We find that while obliquity varies significantly more than that of the actual Earth over 100,000 year timescales, the obliquity remains within a constrained range, typically 20-25 deg. in extent, for timescales of hundreds of millions of years. None of our Solar System integrations in which planetary orbits behave in a typical manner show obliquity accessing more than 65% of the full range allowed by frequency-map analysis. The obliquities of moonless Earths that rotate in the retrograde direction are more stable than those of pro-grade rotators. The total obliquity range explored for moonless Earths with rotation periods shorter than 12 h is much less than that for slower-rotating moonless Earths. A large moon thus does not seem to be needed to stabilize the obliquity of an Earth-like planet on timescales relevant to the development of advanced life.

orbital integrator mercury↗

NASA NTRS2018

Sea-Level Rise: Projections for Maryland 2018

In fulfillment of requirements of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change Act of 2015, this report provides updated projections of the amount of sea-level rise relative to Maryland coastal lands that is expected into the next century. These projections represent the consensus of an Expert Group drawn from the Mid-Atlantic region. The framework for these projections is explicitly tied to the projections of global sea-level rise included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment (2014) and incorporates regional factors such as subsidence, distance from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets, and ocean currents. The probability distribution of estimates of relative sea-level rise from the baseline year of 2000 are provided over time and, after 2050, for three different greenhouse gas emissions pathways: Growing Emissions (RCP8.5), Stabilized Emissions (RCP4.5), and meeting the Paris Agreement (RCP2.6). This framework has been recently used in developing relative sea-level rise projections for California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, and Delaware as well as several metropolitan areas. The Likely range (66% probability) of the relative rise of mean sea level expected in Maryland between 2000 and 2050 is 0.8 to 1.6 feet, with about a one-in-twenty chance it could exceed 2.0 feet and about a one-in-one hundred chance it could exceed 2.3 feet. Later this century, rates of sea-level rise increasingly depend on the future pathway of global emissions of greenhouse gases during the next sixty years. If emissions continue to grow well into the second half of the 21st century, the Likely range of sea-level rise experienced in Maryland is 2.0 to 4.2 feet over this century, two to four times the sea-level rise experienced during the 20th century. Moreover, there is a one-in-twenty chance that it could exceed 5.2 feet. If, on the other hand, global society were able to bring net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in time to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and reduce emissions sufficient to limit the increase in global mean temperature to less than 2°Celsius over pre-industrial levels, the Likely range for 2100 is 1.2 to 3.0 feet, with a one-in-twenty chance that it would exceed 3.7 feet. The difference in sea-level rise between these contrasting scenarios would diverge even more during the next century, with the failure to reduce emissions in the near term resulting in much greater sea-level rise 100 years from now. Moreover, recent research suggests that, without imminent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the loss of polar ice sheets-and thus the rate of sea-level rise-may be more rapid than assumed in these projections, particularly under the Growing Emissions scenario. These probabilistic sea-level rise projections can and should be used in planning and regulation, infrastructure siting and design, estimation of changes in tidal range and storm surge, developing inundation mapping tools, and adaptation strategies for high-tide flooding and saltwater intrusion.

Boesch, D. F.↗