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At least 235 records · Page 13

Using Satellite‐Derived Fire Arrival Times for Coupled Wildfire‐Air Quality Simulations at Regional Scales of the 2020 California Wildfire Season

Abstract Wildfire frequency has increased in the Western US over recent decades, driven by climate change and a legacy of forest management practices. Consequently, human structures, health, and life are increasingly at risk due to wildfires. Furthermore, wildfire smoke presents a growing hazard for regional and national air quality. In response, many scientific tools have been developed to study and forecast wildfire behavior, or test interventions that may mitigate risk. In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of 1 month of the 2020 Northern California wildfire season, when many wildfires with varying environments and behavior impacted regional air quality. We simulated this period using a coupled numerical weather prediction model with online atmospheric chemistry, and compare two approaches to representing smoke emissions: an online fire spread model driven by remotely sensed fire arrival times and a biomass burning emissions inventory. First, we quantify the differences in smoke emissions and timing of fire activity, and characterize the subsequent impact on estimates of smoke emissions. Next, we compare the simulated smoke to surface observations and remotely sensed smoke; we find that despite differences in the simulated smoke surface concentrations, the two models achieve similar levels of accuracy. We present a detailed comparison between the performance and relative strengths of both approaches, and discuss potential refinements that could further improve future simulations of wildfire smoke. Finally, we characterize the interactions between smoke and meteorology during this event, and discuss the implications that increases in regional smoke may have on future meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coupling plant litter quantity to a novel metric for litter quality explains C storage changes in a thawing permafrost peatland

Abstract Permafrost thaw is a major potential feedback source to climate change as it can drive the increased release of greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). This carbon release from the decomposition of thawing soil organic material can be mitigated by increased net primary productivity (NPP) caused by warming, increasing atmospheric CO 2 , and plant community transition. However, the net effect on C storage also depends on how these plant community changes alter plant litter quantity, quality, and decomposition rates. Predicting decomposition rates based on litter quality remains challenging, but a promising new way forward is to incorporate measures of the energetic favorability to soil microbes of plant biomass decomposition. We asked how the variation in one such measure, the nominal oxidation state of carbon (NOSC), interacts with changing quantities of plant material inputs to influence the net C balance of a thawing permafrost peatland. We found: (1) Plant productivity (NPP) increased post‐thaw, but instead of contributing to increased standing biomass, it increased plant biomass turnover via increased litter inputs to soil; (2) Plant litter thermodynamic favorability (NOSC) and decomposition rate both increased post‐thaw, despite limited changes in bulk C:N ratios; (3) these increases caused the higher NPP to cycle more rapidly through both plants and soil, contributing to higher CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from decomposition. Thus, the increased C‐storage expected from higher productivity was limited and the high global warming potential of CH 4 contributed a net positive warming effect. Although post‐thaw peatlands are currently C sinks due to high NPP offsetting high CO 2 release, this status is very sensitive to the plant community's litter input rate and quality. Integration of novel bioavailability metrics based on litter chemistry, including NOSC, into studies of ecosystem dynamics, is needed to improve the understanding of controls on arctic C stocks under continued ecosystem transition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

“Godzilla,” the Extreme African Dust Event of June 2020: Origins, Transport, and Impact on Air Quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin

In June 2020, the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Basin were affected by a series of African dust outbreaks unprecedented in size and intensity. These events, informally named “Godzilla,” coincided with CALIMA, a large field campaign, offering a rare opportunity to assess the impact of African dust on air quality in the Greater Caribbean Basin. Network measurements of respirable particles (i.e., PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) showed that dust significantly degraded regional air quality and increased the risk to public health in the Caribbean, the southern United States, northern South America, and Central America. CALIMA examined the meteorological context of Godzilla dust events over North Africa and how these conditions might relate to the greatly increased dust emissions and enhanced transport to the Americas. Godzilla was linked to strong pressure anomalies over West Africa, resulting in a large-scale geostrophic wind anomaly at 700 hPa over North Africa. We used surface-based and columnar measurements to test the performance of two frequently used aerosol forecast models: the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models. The models showed some skills but differed substantially between their forecasts, suggesting large uncertainties in these forecasts that are critical for issuing early warnings of health-threatening dust events. Our results demonstrate the value of an integrated approach in characterizing the spatial and temporal variability of African dust transport and assessing its impact on regional air quality. Future studies are needed to improve models and to track the long-term changes in dust transport from Africa under a changing climate.

Aerosols/particulates↗

Understanding the Cascade: Removing GCM Biases Improves Dynamically Downscaled Climate Projections

Polarization surrounding bias correction (BC) in creating climate projections arises from its lack of physicality. Here, we perform and analyze 18 dynamical downscaling simulations (with and without BC) to better understand the physical impacts of BC, applied before downscaling, on regional climate output across the western United States. Without BC, downscaled precipitation is systematically and unrealistically wet biased compared to a hierarchy of observationally based datasets over the 1980–2014 period due to cascading mean–state Global Climate Model (GCM) biases: (a) overly strong lower–tropospheric lapse rates (5 K/km), (b) overly cold (2 K) tropospheric temperatures, and (c) anomalous mid–tropospheric cyclonic vorticity advection. With BC, downscaled precipitation (snow) biases are virtually eliminated (halved). Identified GCM biases are common to the broader Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ensemble. Physical effects of BC on the quality of the regionalized projections, pending an evaluation of BC's distortion of the downscaled climate response, may motivate its broader application by dynamical downscalers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AquaMEND: Reconciling multiple impacts of salinization on soil carbon biogeochemistry

Soil salinization, exacerbated by climate change, poses a global threat to coastal ecosystem function and soil quality. Salinity influences carbon cycling through direct effects on microbial activity and indirect alterations to soil physicochemical properties including cation exchange, pH, and soil organic carbon availability. Current models inadequately represent these complexities, relying on linear reduction functions that overlook specific physicochemical changes induced by salinity. To address this gap, we propose an integrated model framework, AquaMEND, that combines microbial-explicit carbon decomposition and geochemical models. This model allows cation exchange and surface complexation processes to capture solute chemistry and nutrient availability in soils upon saltwater intrusion. Using response functions that capture salinity impacts on both salt-sensitive and salt-resistant microbial processes, AquaMEND simulates how the abiotic and biotic mechanisms work individually and collectively to regulate organic and inorganic pools and fluxes. Here, the parallel structure of aqueous and non-aqueous phases, together with microbial functions, result in a versatile model for solving dynamic coupling of organics, minerals and microbes under various environmental settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stable isotopes of carbon dioxide (CO2), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), water and concentrations of greenhouse gases in a mountainous watershed (Crested Butte, Colorado)

Temperature and precipitation variability in response to climate change affects water cycling of watersheds and can potentially impact water quality, water availability, elemental and molecular fluxes, and biogeochemical processes. Here we report the measurements of light stable isotopes and greenhouse gases analysis to a large multidisciplinary project addressing watershed function. Water hydrogen (H) and oxygen (O) stable isotopes of snow and water saturated soil were measured to constrain source contributions to groundwater and streamflow. In an effort to better constrain existing nitrogen and carbon cycling models in high-altitude ecosystems, carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) greenhouse gases concentrations and stable isotope signatures of CO2, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and water were measured. This dataset includes one CSV file and one Excel file containing data including stable isotopes of carbon dioxide (CO2), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), water and concentrations of greenhouse gases. The CSV and Excel files contain the same information/data but have included both versions for accessibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Electricity Generation: Update

As clean energy increasingly becomes part of the national dialogue, lenders, utilities, and lawmakers need the most comprehensive and accurate information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from various sources of energy to inform policy, planning, and investment decisions. Since the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) published original results from the Life Cycle Assessment Harmonization Project (Heath and Mann 2012), it has updated estimates of electricity generation GHG emissions factors as part of several recent studies. This fact sheet updates an earlier version (NREL 2013).

air quality↗

High-Fidelity Solar Irradiance Data: Simple Access to State-of-the-Art Information Accelerates Southeast Asia's Clean Energy Economic Transformation

High quality, robust, and reliable renewable energy resource data is foundational to climate-smart decision making, evidence-based policy planning, and clean energy investment mobilization. USAID and NREL, through the Advanced Energy Partnership for Asia, are expanding access to this critical resource data by providing free, high-fidelity solar resource data for Southeast Asia through the RE Data Explorer platform. This brief highlights several ways the Southeast Asia solar resource data has been used for power system planning and project development in the region.

Advanced Energy Partnership for Asia↗

Temperature outweighs light and flow as the predominant driver of dissolved oxygen in US rivers

The concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO), an important measure of water quality and river metabolism, varies tremendously in time and space. Riverine DO is commonly perceived as regulated by interacting and competing drivers (light, temperature and flow) that define rivers’ climate. Its continental-scale drivers, however, have remained elusive, partly due to the scarcity and spatio-temporal inconsistency of water quality data. Here we show, via a deep learning model (long short-term memory) trained using data from 580 rivers, that temperature predominantly drives daily DO dynamics in the contiguous United States. Light comes a close second, whereas flow imparts minimal influence. This work showcases the promise of using deep learning models for data filling that enables large-scale systematic analysis of patterns and drivers. Results show fairly accurate prediction of DO by temperature alone, and declining DO in warming rivers, which has important implications for water security and ecosystem health in the future climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CROCUS Air Quality Data at Northeastern Illinois University Rooftop

This dataset is from the Department of Energy Office of Science funded project, Community Research on Urban and Climate Science (CROCUS) (https://crocus-urban.org/). The AQT (Vaisala AQT530) instrument provides observations on meteorological conditions, including particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10), gas species concentrations (NO, NO2, O3, CO), and environment temperature and moisture. These measurements are critical for understanding air quality. These measurements are useful for understanding changes in aerosol properties, air quality research, and comparing to model experiments especially in urban environments.Datasets are stored in the netCDF data format, and we we encourage users to make use the associated toolkits available from Unidata (https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/netcdf/), Project Pythia (https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html), and our “Instrument Cookbooks” (https://crocus-urban.github.io/instrument-cookbooks) for more information on how to process the metadata-rich datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal Performance of Spandrel Assemblies in Glazed Wall Systems: Laboratory Test Design – Challenges and Test Results

Accurate thermal performance calculation procedures for opaque spandrel areas in curtain wall and window wall systems are essential for rating systems when comparing spandrel systems. However, there is a lack of consensus in thermal modeling needed for accurately characterizing heat transfer through spandrel assemblies due to the complex arrangement of materials and structural components. Several studies indicate that conventional 2D thermal simulations may overestimate R-values by 30% compared to physical testing and 3D simulations. Detailed simulations and well-curated laboratory test data are necessary to build confidence in simulation models, which will later be used to develop correlations to improve widely used conventional 2D thermal simulations. This study aims to experimentally test heat transfer through various spandrel assemblies to validate 3D simulation models. Also, the challenges of conducting a thorough testing design along with the solutions would be documented. The team developed a design for testing spandrel assemblies, making appropriate modifications to the existing heat, air, and moisture (HAM) chamber to accommodate the testing needs. Two moveable baffles were designed and fabricated to guide airflow direction parallel to the test article surface. The data acquisition capabilities in the chamber were upgraded to add more than two hundred sensors to the climate and indoor side of the chamber. The goal is to provide a quality dataset for validating complex 3D modeling simulations, which will be used to develop improved thermal simulation techniques that more accurately represent the thermal behavior of spandrel assemblies and their integration within the building envelope. This paper will summarize the results for the boundary conditions of the testing and the temperature variation across different locations of the spandrel assemblies.

Kunwar, Niraj [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000263457652)↗

Shifts in rain-snow partitioning drive faster water transit times in the US Pacific Northwest

Water transit times strongly influence water quality, temperature, and seasonal hydrologic response of river systems. How water transit times may shift under future climates remains unconstrained, especially in mountainous regions experiencing rapid snowpack declines. Here, we estimated historical (2006–2013) and future (2086–2093) water transit times in five headwater catchments within the U.S. Pacific Northwest using sequential precipitation input tagging within the Water Tracer enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model. Our results indicate water transit times are 18% (35–64 days) faster on average under the Representative Carbon Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario due to shifts in rain-snow partitioning, with higher fractions of younger water in the wet season and older water in the dry season. These results suggest shifts in rain-snow partitioning in snowmelt dominated catchments of the Pacific Northwest will shorten water transit times leading to likely impacts on regional water quality, temperature, and hydrologic seasonality.

Butler, Zachariah [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, ↗

Soil metabolome response to whole-ecosystem warming at the Spruce and Peatland Responses under Changing Environments experiment

In this study, a suite of complementary environmental geochemical analyses, including NMR and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of central metabolites, Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) of secondary metabolites, and lipidomics, was used to investigate the influence of organic matter (OM) quality on the heterotrophic microbial mechanisms controlling peatland CO2, CH4, and CO2:CH4 porewater production ratios in response to climate warming. Our investigations leverage the Spruce and Peatland Responses under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment, where air and peat warming were combined in a whole-ecosystem warming treatment. We hypothesized that warming would enhance the production of plant-derived metabolites, resulting in increased labile OM inputs to the surface peat, thereby enhancing microbial activity and greenhouse gas production. Because shallow peat is most susceptible to enhanced warming, increases in labile OM inputs to the surface, in particular, are likely to result in significant changes to CO2 and CH4 dynamics and methanogenic pathways. In support of this hypothesis, significant correlations were observed between metabolites and temperature consistent with increased availability of labile substrates, which may stimulate more rapid turnover of microbial proteins. An increase in the abundance of methanogenic genes in response to the increase in the abundance of labile substrates was accompanied by a shift toward acetoclastic and methylotrophic methanogenesis. Our results suggest that as peatland vegetation trends toward increasing vascular plant cover with warming, we can expect a concomitant shift toward increasingly methanogenic conditions and amplified climate–peatland feedbacks.

Wilson, Rachel M.↗

Climate change is intensifying rainfall erosivity and soil erosion in West Africa

Soil erosion is a critical environmental challenge with significant implications for agriculture, water quality, and ecosystem stability. Understanding its dynamics is essential for sustainable environmental management and societal welfare. Here, we analyze rainfall erosivity and erosion patterns across West Africa (WAF) during the historical (1982–2014), near future (2028–2060), and far future (2068–2100) periods under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 370 and 585). Using bias-corrected-downscaled (BCD) climate models validated against reference data, we ensure an accurate representation of rainfall—a key driver of erosivity (R-factor) and soil erosion. We compare Renard's approach and the Modified Fournier Index (MFI) to calculate the R-factor and note a strong correlation. However, Renard's method shows slightly lower accuracy in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and The Gambia, likely due to its inability to capture high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events. In contrast, the MFI, utilizing continuous rain gauge data, proves more reliable for these regions. We also attribute fluctuations in erosivity, such as those seen during the 2003 West Africa floods, to synoptic weather patterns influenced by multiple climate processes. Furthermore, our analysis reveals regions where future soil erosion could exceed 20 t/ha/yr due to climate change. Under the SSP 370 scenario, soil erosion in WAF is projected to rise by 14.84 % in the near future and 18.65 % in the far future, increasing further under SSP 585 to 19.86 % and 23.49 %, respectively. The most severe increases are expected in Benin and Nigeria, with Nigeria potentially facing a 66.41 % rise in erosion by the far future under SSP 585. These findings highlight the region's exposure to intensified climatic conditions and underscore the urgent need for targeted soil management and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate erosion's ecological and socioeconomic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Overview of the Alaskan Layered Pollution and Chemical Analysis (ALPACA) Field Experiment

The Alaskan Layered Pollution And Chemical Analysis (ALPACA) field experiment was a collaborative study designed to improve understanding of pollution sources and chemical processes during winter (cold climate and low-photochemical activity), to investigate indoor pollution, and to study dispersion of pollution as affected by frequent temperature inversions. A number of the research goals were motivated by questions raised by residents of Fairbanks, Alaska, where the study was held. This paper describes the measurement strategies and the conditions encountered during the January and February 2022 field experiment, and reports early examples of how the measurements addressed research goals, particularly those of interest to the residents. Outdoor air measurements showed high concentrations of particulate matter and pollutant gases including volatile organic carbon species. During pollution events, low winds and extremely stable atmospheric conditions trapped pollution below 73 m, an extremely shallow vertical scale. Tethered-balloon-based measurements intercepted plumes aloft, which were associated with power plant point sources through transport modeling. Because cold climate residents spend much of their time indoors, the study included an indoor air quality component, where measurements were made inside and outside a house to study infiltration and indoor sources. In the absence of indoor activities such as cooking and/or heating with a pellet stove, indoor particulate matter concentrations were lower than outdoors; however, cooking and pellet stove burns often caused higher indoor particulate matter concentrations than outdoors. The mass-normalized particulate matter oxidative potential, a health-relevant property measured here by the reactivity with dithiothreiol, of indoor particles varied by source, with cooking particles having less oxidative potential per mass than pellet stove particles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Aircraft Measurements from a U.S. Western Wildfire Demonstrating Day and Night Differences in the Chemical Composition and Optical Properties of Biomass Burning Aerosols and Their Atmospheric Evolution

The composition and transformations of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) have been measured onboard the NOAA Twin Otter research aircraft during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality field study. Here, we analyze real-time aerosol mass spectrometry measurements across three flights during the afternoon, late afternoon, and night of August 28, 2019, for one midsized wildfire. Analysis of several metrics showed that the aerosol composition and optical properties varied depending on the burning conditions at the fire zone and the time of day the BBA was emitted, with substantial variations in the available sunlight. The total aerosol mass loadings were dominated by organic components with a much smaller contribution from inorganic species. A gradual buildup of organic material was observed during the afternoon as the plume aged, indicating the condensation of photochemically formed low-volatility oxidized organic compounds. Highly hygroscopic ammonium nitrate was the main inorganic component, suggesting potential water content in BBA particles and the likelihood of their aqueous-phase reactivity. Depletions of particle-phase NO 3 – and Cl – relative to carbon monoxide were observed in the late afternoon and nighttime plumes, respectively, aligning with known gas-particle partitioning thermodynamics and the heterogeneous chemistry of dissolved nitrate and chloride. The wavelength-dependent light absorption by aerosol species was higher for the plume sampled at night and showed no significant changes with plume age, despite observed trends in composition and mass downwind. These differences in particle composition and optical properties demonstrate that the processes involved in BBA aging are not uniform for the same wildfire over the course of the day and depend highly on when the BBA was emitted, as well as the burning phase at the emissions source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characteristics and Variability of the Nearshore Wave Resource on the U.S. West Coast

Characterizing the nearshore wave resource at a regional scale poses a great challenge because high-quality wave data are required. This paper presents a detailed analysis of nearshore wave climate and resource characterization on the U.S. West Coast based on a 32-year, regional wave hindcast. Resource characterization closely followed the International Electrotechnical Commission standards. The wave hindcast data were generated from an unstructured-grid SWAN model with approximately 300 m grid resolution in the nearshore region. Statistics of six IEC wave resource parameters at the 50 m water depth were calculated for four sub-regions along the coast, including Washington, Oregon, and Northern and Southern California. Results indicate that the Washington and Oregon coast has a similar nearshore wave resource. The wave resource in Southern California is significantly less than that of the Washington and Oregon coast. Alongshore and cross-shore variabilities of wave power were assessed. Temporal variability, at seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal scales were analyzed. Overall, strong seasonal variation is observed; high wave energy occurs in the winter months and calm seas in the summer. Finally, extreme environmental conditions, i.e., the 100-year extreme environmental contours, for different locations along the West Coast were investigated.

wave resource characterization, nearshore, west co↗

Coupled Climate Simulations With E3SM‐MMF

Simulations of the recent historical period from 1950 to 2014 are conducted with E3SM‐MMF, which uses an embedded 2D cloud resolving model that runs efficiently on GPUs in place of traditional parameterizations for cloud and turbulence. Analysis of the climate and variability reveal several aspects where E3SM‐MMF produces smaller biases compared to E3SMv2, including better agreement with the observed evolution of global mean surface temperature, although the representation of ENSO is too weak and fast. Three idealized abrupt CO 2 experiments were also conducted to assess climate sensitivity and feedbacks. These yield three estimates of effective climate sensitivity (4.38, 5.21, and 6.06 K), with a corresponding spread in the shortwave cloud feedbacks. These estimates are on the higher end of sensitivity estimates from CMIP ensembles, and the spread indicates substantial state‐dependent feedbacks. These results demonstrate how multiscale modeling framework (MMF) models can be used for climate relevant experiments and projections by leveraging modern GPU enabled computational platforms. The unique qualities of E3SM‐MMF shown in previous literature are largely still present, but various instances of reduced biases suggest that MMF models have utility in improving future projections.

E3SM↗