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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of ocean model resolution on understanding the delayed warming of the Southern Ocean

Abstract Currently available historical climate change simulations indicate a relatively delayed Southern Ocean warming, particularly poleward of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) compared much of the rest of the globe. However, even this simulated delayed warming is inconsistent with observational estimates which show a cooling trend poleward of the ACC for the period 1979–2014. A fully coupled model run at two resolutions, i.e. ocean eddy parameterized and ocean eddy resolving, driven by historical and fixed CO2 concentration is used to investigate forced trends south of the ACC. We analyze the 1961–2005 Southern Ocean surface and upper ocean temperatures trends simulated by the model and observational estimates to understand the observed trends in the SO. At both resolutions, the models successfully reproduce the observed warming response for the northern flank of the ACC. The eddy resolving simulations, however, are able to reproduce the observed near Antarctic cooling in contrast to the eddy parameterized simulation which shows a warming trend. The cause of this inconsistency between the observations and the ocean eddy parameterized climate models is still a matter of debate, and we show here results that suggest resolved ocean meso-scale processes may be an integral part of capturing the observed trends in the Southern Ocean.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Idealized Simulations of the Tropical Climate and Variability in the Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM): Radiative-Convective Equilibrium

To explore the interactions among column processes in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), the single-column version of CAM (SCAM) is integrated for 1000 days in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) with tropical values of boundary conditions, spanning a parameter or configuration space of model physics versions (v5 vs. v6), vertical resolution (standard and 60 levels), sea surface temperature (SST), and some interpretation-driven experiments. The simulated time-mean climate is reasonable, near observations and RCE of a cyclic cloud-resolving model. Updraft detrainment in the deep convection scheme produces distinctive grid-scale structures in humidity and cloud, which also interact with radiative transfer processes. These grid artifacts average out in multi-column RCE results reported elsewhere, illustrating the nuts-and-bolts interpretability that SCAM adds to the hierarchy of model configurations. Multi-day oscillations of precipitation arise from descent of warm convection-capping layers starting near the tropopause, eventually reset by a burst of convective deepening. Experiments reveal how these oscillations depend critically on an internal parameter that controls the number of neutral buoyancy levels allowed for determining cloud top and computing dilute convective available potential energy in the deep convection scheme, and merely modified a little by disabling cloud-base radiation (heating of cloud base). This strong dependence of transient behavior in 1D on this parameter will be tested in the second part of this work, in which SCAM is coupled to a parameterized dynamics of two-dimensional, linearized gravity wave, and in the 3D simulations in future study.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw

We used a model for permafrost hydrology informed by detailed measurements of soil ice content to better understand the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. Our spatially resolved simulations of a well-characterized site in polygonal tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, agree well with multiple types of observations in the current climate. Projections indicate 63 cm of bulk subsidence from 2006 to 2100 in the strong-warming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate. Permafrost thaw as measured by the increase in active layer thickness (ALT)—the thickness of the soil layer that thaws each summer—is accelerated by subsidence, but the effect is relatively small. The ALT increases from the current-day value of approximately 50 cm to approximately 180 cm by 2100 when subsidence is included compared to about 160 cm when it is neglected. In these simulations, previously identified positive feedbacks between subsidence and thaw are self-limiting on decadal time frames because landscape runoff and increasing evapotranspiration result in drier tundra with weaker surface/atmosphere coupling. These results for a tundra site that is representative of large swathes of the Alaska North Slope suggest that subsidence is unlikely to lead to abrupt thaw over large areas. However, subsidence does have significant effects on the hydrology of polygonal tundra. Specifically, subsidence increases landscape runoff, which helps maintain streamflow in the face of increased evapotranspiration but also causes drier tundra conditions that could have deleterious effects on sensitive Arctic wetland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Linking remotely sensed ecosystem resilience with forest mortality across the continental United States

Episodes of forest mortality have been observed worldwide associated with climate change, impacting species composition and ecosystem services such as water resources and carbon sequestration. Yet our ability to predict forest mortality remains limited, especially across large scales. Time series of satellite imagery has been used to document ecosystem resilience globally, but it is not clear how well remotely sensed resilience can inform the prediction of forest mortality across continental, multi-biome scales. Here, we leverage forest inventories across the continental United States to systematically assess the potential of ecosystem resilience derived using different data sets and methods to predict forest mortality. Here we found high resilience was associated with low mortality in eastern forests but was associated with high mortality in western regions. The unexpected resilience–mortality relation in western United States may be due to several factors including plant trait acclimation, insect population dynamics, or resource competition. Overall, our results not only supported the opportunity to use remotely sensed ecosystem resilience to predict forest mortality but also highlighted that ecological factors may have crucial influences because they can reverse the sign of the resilience–mortality relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Unified Interpretation of Variability in Precipitation Isotope Ratios

Abstract Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain why the isotope ratios of precipitation vary in space and time and why they correlate with other climate variables like temperature and precipitation. Here, we argue that this behavior is best understood through the lens of radiative transfer, which treats the depletion of atmospheric vapor transport by precipitation as analogous to the attenuation of light by absorption or scattering. Building on earlier work by Siler et al., we introduce a simple model that uses the equations of radiative transfer to approximate the two-dimensional pattern of the oxygen isotope composition of precipitation ( δ p ) from monthly mean hydrologic variables. The model accurately simulates the spatial and seasonal variability in δ p within a state-of-the-art climate model and permits a simple decomposition of δ p variability into contributions from gradients in evaporation and the length scale of vapor transport. Outside the tropics, δ p is mostly controlled by gradients in evaporation, whose dependence on temperature explains the positive correlation between δ p and temperature (i.e., the temperature effect). At low latitudes, δ p is mostly controlled by gradients in the transport length scale, whose inverse relationship with precipitation explains the negative correlation between δ p and precipitation (i.e., the amount effect). This suggests that the temperature and amount effects are both mostly explained by the variability in upstream rainout, but they reflect distinct mechanisms governing rainout at different latitudes. Significance Statement The isotopic composition of precipitation has long been used to make inferences about past climates based on its observed relationship with precipitation in the tropics and with temperature at higher latitudes. These relationships—known as the “amount effect” and “temperature effect,” respectively—have been attributed to many different mechanisms, most of which are thought to operate at either high or low latitudes but not both. Here, we present a unified framework for interpreting the isotope variability that can explain the latitude dependence of the temperature and amount effects despite making no distinction between high and low latitudes. Although our results are generally consistent with certain interpretations of the amount effect, they suggest that the temperature effect is widely misunderstood.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sub-daily virus sampling at the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series reveals diel and depth-structured population dynamics without community-level shifts

Ocean microbes contribute to biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem function, but they do so under top-down pressure imposed by viruses. While viruses are increasingly understood spatially and beginning to be incorporated into predictive modeling, high-frequency ocean virus dynamics remain understudied due to methodological challenges. Here we sampled stratified Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) waters for 112 hours at sub-daily 4- (surface) or 12- (deep chlorophyll maximum) hour intervals, purified viral particles from these samples, sequenced their metagenomes, and used the resulting data to characterize high-frequency virus community dynamics. Aggregated community diversity metrics changed with depth, but were not statistically significant temporally at a fixed location. However, finer-scale population-level analyses revealed both depth and temporal change, including physicochemical depth-driven differences and, in surface waters, thousands of viral populations that exhibited statistically significant diel rhythms. Statistical analyses revealed three main archetypes of temporal dynamics that themselves differed in abundance patterns, host predictions, viral taxonomy, and gene functions. Among these, highlights include viruses resembling an archetype with a night peaking pattern in activity that include an over-representation of viruses that putatively infect Prochlorococcus, a phototrophic cyanobacteria. Together, these efforts provide baseline community- and population-scale short-time-frame observations relevant to future climate state modeling.

Carrillo, Alfonso [The Ohio State University, Colu↗
DOE OSTI2021

The LAKE model input dataset for three Arctic lakes

This dataset contains meteorological data collected for three Arctic lakes and compiled to satisfy input requirements of the LAKE 2.0 model. The dataset was generated to act as a benchmarking dataset for future model-data inter-comparisons. The LAKE 2.0 model simulates temperatures within the water later and the sedimentary layer of a lake. The LAKE2.0. is an open-source code and available to download via this weblike http://tesla.parallel.ru/Viktor/LAKE/-/wikis/LAKE-model (last visit July 14, 2021). The meteorological data are required to simulate the surface energy balance at the surface of a lake. This dataset includes a compilation of the meteorological data pulled from multiple data streams, including National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climate data, Circumarctic Lakes Observation Network (CALON) data, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) data. The data were compiled for three Arctic lakes: FoxDen (66.55877, -164.45670), Atqasuk (70.452497, -156.951984), and Toolik (68.63150, -149.60740). Each meteorological data is in comma-delimited format (file extension ‘.dat’) and includes eight columns: Temperature [K], Pressure [Pa], longwave downward radiation [W/m2], shortwave downward radiation [W/m2], “U” wind speed [m/s], ”V” wind speed [m/s], humidity [kg/kg], precipitation [m/s]. In addition to the meteorological data file, we included setup and driver files. The Toolik lake is the deepest out of three lakes and has inflowing and outflowing groundwater data. InflowOutflowREADME.txt has more information about inflow and outflow flies. The other two lakes are much shallower and modeled as a closed system (i.e. no water inflow or outflow).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact on cloud properties of reduced-sulphur shipping fuel in the Eastern North Atlantic

The global reduction in shipping fuel sulphur that culminated in 2020 with an ∼ 80 % reduction has created a large-scale natural experiment on the role of aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) in the climate system. We compare observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Eastern North Atlantic site (ARM-ENA; 39.1° N, 28.0° W) during two June to September periods: 2016–2018 (pre-2020) and 2021–2023 (post-2020). We find a significant (∼ 15 %) decrease in cloud condensation nuclei concentrations post-2020, which resulted in a decrease in cloud droplet number (N d ) and an increase in effective radius (r e ) of marine boundary layer clouds. However, cloud liquid water path (LWP) increased post-2020. The increase in LWP offset the increase in r e , resulting in insignificant changes to optical depth. MODIS and CERES data in the vicinity of ENA during these periods produce similar results also with negligible change in albedo and optical depth. Regional cloud occurrence declined in line with changes in the large-scale meteorology. Our results highlight the complex interplay of factors that modulate cloud feedbacks in the Eastern North Atlantic.

Mace, Gerald G. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric particle abundance and sea salt aerosol observations in the springtime Arctic: a focus on blowing snow and leads

Abstract. Sea salt aerosols play an important role in the radiation budget and atmospheric composition over the Arctic, where the climate is rapidly changing. Previous observational studies have shown that Arctic sea ice leads are an important source of sea salt aerosols, and modeling efforts have also proposed blowing snow sublimation as a source. In this study, size-resolved atmospheric particle number concentrations and chemical composition were measured at the Arctic coastal tundra site of Utqiaġvik, Alaska, during spring (3 April–7 May 2016). Blowing snow conditions were observed during 25 % of the 5-week study period and were overpredicted by a commonly used blowing snow parameterization based solely on wind speed and temperature. Throughout the study, open leads were present locally. During periods when blowing snow was observed, significant increases in the number concentrations of 0.01–0.06 µm particles (factor of 6, on average) and 0.06–0.3 µm particles (67 %, on average) and a significant decrease (82 %, on average) in 1–4 µm particles were observed compared to low wind speed periods. These size distribution changes were likely caused by the generation of ultrafine particles from leads and/or blowing snow, with scavenging of supermicron particles by blowing snow. At elevated wind speeds, both submicron and supermicron sodium and chloride mass concentrations were enhanced, consistent with wind-dependent local sea salt aerosol production. At moderate wind speeds below the threshold for blowing snow as well as during observed blowing snow, individual sea spray aerosol particles were measured. These individual salt particles were enriched in calcium relative to sodium in seawater due to the binding of this divalent cation with organic matter in the sea surface microlayer and subsequent enrichment during seawater bubble bursting. The chemical composition of the surface snowpack also showed contributions from sea spray aerosol deposition. Overall, these results show the contribution of sea spray aerosol production from leads on both aerosols and the surface snowpack. Therefore, if blowing snow sublimation contributed to the observed sea salt aerosol, the snow being sublimated would have been impacted by sea spray aerosol deposition rather than upward brine migration through the snowpack. Sea spray aerosol production from leads is expected to increase, with thinning and fracturing of sea ice in the rapidly warming Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reducing the aerosol forcing uncertainty using observational constraints on warm rain processes

Global climate models (GCMs) disagree with other lines of evidence on the rapid adjustments of cloud cover and liquid water path to anthropogenic aerosols. Attempts to use observations to constrain the parameterizations of cloud processes in GCMs have failed to reduce the disagreement. We propose using observations sensitive to the relevant cloud processes rather than only to the atmospheric state and focusing on process realism in the absence of aerosol perturbations in addition to the process susceptibility to aerosols. We show that process-sensitive observations of precipitation can reduce the uncertainty on GCM estimates of rapid cloud adjustments to aerosols. The feasibility of an observational constraint depends on understanding the precipitation intensity spectrum in both observations and models and also on improving methods to compare the two.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Declines in ice cover are accompanied by light limitation responses and community change in freshwater diatoms

The rediscovery of diatom blooms embedded within and beneath the Lake Erie ice cover (2007–2012) ignited interest in psychrophilic adaptations and winter limnology. Subsequent studies determined the vital role ice plays in winter diatom ecophysiology as diatoms partition to the underside of ice, thereby fixing their location within the photic zone. Yet, climate change has led to widespread ice decline across the Great Lakes, with Lake Erie presenting a nearly “ice-free” state in several recent winters. It has been hypothesized that the resultant turbid, isothermal water column induces light limitation amongst winter diatoms and thus serves as a competitive disadvantage. To investigate this hypothesis, we conducted a physiochemical and metatranscriptomic survey that spanned spatial, temporal, and climatic gradients of the winter Lake Erie water column (2019–2020). Our results suggest that ice-free conditions decreased planktonic diatom bloom magnitude and altered diatom community composition. Diatoms increased their expression of various photosynthetic genes and iron transporters, which suggests that the diatoms are attempting to increase their quantity of photosystems and light-harvesting components (a well-defined indicator of light limitation). We identified two gene families which serve to increase diatom fitness in the turbid ice-free water column: proton-pumping rhodopsins (a potential second means of light-driven energy acquisition) and fasciclins (a means to “raft” together to increase buoyancy and co-locate to the surface to optimize light acquisition). With large-scale climatic changes already underway, our observations provide insight into how diatoms respond to the dynamic ice conditions of today and shed light on how they will fare in a climatically altered tomorrow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computational Modeling of Atmospheric Processes at Texas Southern University

Texas Southern University (TSU) is strengthening its research program in atmospheric chemistry and physics with a climate science emphasis by leveraging partnerships with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), and the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER). This RDPP-supported program focuses on secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) and reactive atmospheric species that influence cloud formation, precipitation processes, and radiative forcing. SOAs play a critical role in cloud microphysics and Earth’s energy balance, yet the chemical and physical mechanisms governing SOA–cloud interactions remain a significant source of uncertainty in predictive climate models. Through computational modeling, observational data analysis, and national laboratory collaboration, this program develops a skilled cohort of students trained in atmospheric science, environmental data analysis, and climate-relevant modeling. These research experiences build technical competencies that are transferable to careers in government laboratories, academia, and industry. By engaging students from historically underrepresented communities in high-impact climate research, TSU expands participation in the atmospheric sciences workforce while contributing meaningful scientific insights to DOE-supported ARM research activities. This partnership strengthens national capacity in climate science and supports the development of the next generation of atmospheric researchers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Abstract Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mesoscale convective systems in the third pole region: Characteristics, mechanisms and impact on precipitation

The climate system of the Third Pole region, including the (TP) and its surroundings, is highly sensitive to global warming. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are understood to be a vital component of this climate system. Driven by the monsoon circulation, surface heating, and large-scale and local moisture supply, they frequently occur during summer and mostly over the central and eastern TP as well as in the downstream regions. Further, MCSs have been highlighted as important contributors to total precipitation as they are efficient rain producers affecting water availability (seasonal precipitation) and potential flood risk (extreme precipitation) in the densely populated downstream regions. The availability of multi-decadal satellite observations and high-resolution climate model datasets has made it possible to study the role of MCSs in the under-observed TP water balance. However, the usage of different methods for MCS identification and the different focuses on specific subregions currently hamper a systematic and consistent assessment of the role played by MCSs and their impact on precipitation over the TP headwaters and its downstream regions. Here, we review observational and model studies of MCSs in the TP region within a common framework to elucidate their main characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and impact on seasonal and extreme precipitation. We also identify major knowledge gaps and provide suggestions on how these can be addressed using recently published high-resolution model datasets. Three important identified knowledge gaps are 1) the feedback of MCSs to other components of the TP climate system, 2) the impact of the changing climate on future MCS characteristics, and 3) the basin-scale assessment of flood and drought risks associated with changes in MCS frequency and intensity. A particularly promising tool to address these knowledge gaps are convection-permitting climate simulations. Therefore, the systematic evaluation of existing historical convection-permitting climate simulations over the TP is an urgent requirement for reliable future climate change assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unveiling four decades of intensifying precipitation from tropical cyclones using satellite measurements

Increases in precipitation rates and volumes from tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by anthropogenic warming are predicted by climate modeling studies and have been identified in several high intensity storms occurring over the last half decade. However, it has been difficult to detect historical trends in TC precipitation at time scales long enough to overcome natural climate variability because of limitations in existing precipitation observations. We introduce an experimental global high-resolution climate data record of precipitation produced using infrared satellite imagery and corrected at the monthly scale by a gauge-derived product that shows generally good performance during two hurricane case studies but estimates higher mean precipitation rates in the tropics than the evaluation datasets. General increases in mean and extreme rainfall rates during the study period of 1980–2019 are identified, culminating in a 12–18%/40-year increase in global rainfall rates. Overall, all basins have experienced intensification in precipitation rates. Increases in rainfall rates have boosted the mean precipitation volume of global TCs by 7–15% over 40 years, with the starkest rises seen in the North Atlantic, South Indian, and South Pacific basins (maximum 59–64% over 40 years). In terms of inland rainfall totals, year-by-year trends are generally positive due to increasing TC frequency, slower decay over land, and more intense rainfall, with an alarming increase of 81–85% seen from the strongest global TCs. As the global trend in precipitation rates follows expectations from warming sea surface temperatures (11.1%/°C), we hypothesize that the observed trends could be a result of anthropogenic warming creating greater concentrations of water vapor in the atmosphere, though retrospective studies of TC dynamics over the period are needed to confirm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract It has been widely recognized that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable large‐scale environmental conditions. Based on these linkages, numerous efforts have been made to establish an empirical relationship between seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental favorability in a quantitative way, which lead to conceptual functions such as the TC genesis index. However, due to the limited amount of reliable TC observations and complexity of the climate system, a simple analytic function may not be an accurate portrait of the empirical relationship between TCs and their ambiences. In this research, we use convolution neural networks (CNNs) to disentangle this complex relationship. To circumvent the limited amount of seasonal TC observation records, we implement transfer‐learning technique to train ensemble of CNNs first on suites of high‐resolution climate model simulations with realistic seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental conditions, and then on a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis from 1950 to 2019. The trained CNNs can well reproduce the historical TC records and yields significant seasonal prediction skills when the large‐scale environmental inputs are provided by operational climate forecasts. Furthermore, by inputting the ensemble CNNs with 20th century reanalysis products and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, we investigated TC variability and its changes in the past and future climates. Specifically, our ensemble CNNs project a decreasing trend of global mean TC activity in the future warming scenario, which is consistent with our future projections using high‐resolution climate model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Riverine bacterioplankton and phytoplankton assembly along an environmental gradient induced by urbanization

In the Anthropocene, human activities are intensifying stresses on biological communities across ecosystems. Knowledge on how environmental changes influence microbial community dynamics is crucial but currently limited. Here we unraveled ecological processes generating distribution patterns of bacterioplankton and phytoplankton communities in a river draining an urbanizing watershed in southern China. In this ecosystem, longitudinal environmental heterogeneity and directional flow potentially have counteracting effects on planktonic community assembly. Using simultaneously multiple approaches, we showed that the observed compositional patterns result from an interplay of stochastic and deterministic processes, indicating that dispersal via fluvial connectivity could not override local selective pressures. Successional shifts in the relative importance of the above processes were associated with trends in climatic factors. High diversity was observed at the intermediate levels of ecological processes alongside intense inter-species interactions maintained by a few keystone taxa. Altogether, interactions between climatic conditions, landscape and hydrology control plankton community dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗