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At least 235 records · Page 13

Estimating Explosion Yields Using Moment Tensor Solutions and Seismic Moment

We report seismic moment, a measurable and well-understood quantity of seismic sources, is used to estimate the yield of explosions. Application of such a method in the past, as in the manner of m b -derived yields, has been complicated by the effect of variations in the explosion working point, depth, and secondary source effects (such as spalling and tectonic release) on the observed moment. We start using the full (six-element) moment tensor solution, which can capture the relevant source physics and, at least in theory, better isolate the primary explosion source. The moment-to-yield ratio is then estimated using an explosion source model which, provided with emplacement conditions, can relate the two parameters. We discuss the major sources of uncertainty associated with the method, and calibrate it with chemical and nuclear explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We then apply the method to published moment tensor solutions for the six declared North Korean nuclear explosions that occurred between 2006 and 2017. The results are mostly consistent with other yield estimates made using a variety of high-frequency methods. This technique is a new approach to estimating explosive yield and simple to implement, as much of the complexity is captured by the source models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Single-Atom Doping at the Molecule–Metal Interface: How Rh Affects Surface Explosion Kinetics

Controlling chemical reactions at interfaces is central to many fields, including atmospheric, environmental, and biological chemistry as well as catalysis and corrosion. We performed a fundamental study of how catalytically active Rh atoms placed at and above a molecule-metal interface influence the surface reaction kinetics of tartaric acid (TA) decomposition. Specifically, TA decomposition on Cu(100) exhibits autocatalytic decomposition kinetics involving a slow initiation step followed by fast decomposition of the molecular layer. These so-called “surface explosions” are extremely sensitive to initial conditions, making it fundamentally interesting to study how the placement of reactive atoms affects the reaction rate. Temperature-programmed reaction (TPR) experiments reveal that Rh atoms embedded in the Cu(100) surface beneath TA (TA/Rh/Cu) or atop the TA layer (Rh/TA/Cu) reduce the decomposition temperature and modify the reaction rate constants. Isothermal TPR analysis reveals that Rh enhances both the initiation rate constant, k i , and the explosion rate constant, k e , facilitating explosive decomposition at lower temperatures. This result provides evidence that both the initiation and explosion steps occur at the metal-molecule interface and are accelerated by the presence of Rh at this interface. This study illustrates how small amounts of reactive elements may be used to control nonlinear kinetic processes at interfaces.

desorption↗

Beirut Explosion Yield and Mushroom Cloud Height - Effects of the Source Environment

I use crater dimensions to estimate the yield of the August 4th, 2020 Beirut explosion to be equivalent to approximately 1.4 kilotons of TNT with a lower bound of about 0.7 kilotons. Based on the amount of ammonium nitrate reported to have been stored at the Beirut harbor, I assume an upper bound for the yield of 2.75 kilotons. However, it is highly likely that the yield was less than 2.75 kilotons, since reported values for TNT equivalence of ammonium nitrate are typically much less than one hundred percent. The crater-size based yield estimates are based on crater radius estimates from satellite imagery and empirical curves and data for scaled crater radius from past chemical and nuclear explosions. I present evidence that suggests that the relatively large crater radius is due to a high degree of coupling of shock wave energy to the surrounding medium and a reduction of the effective stress because of a high level of saturation of the geologic media beneath the explosion. I provide yield estimates based on seismic body-wave magnitude and crater depth as corroborating evidence. I compare preliminary estimates for the maximum debris cloud height, based on cell phone videos/images, with predicted maximum heights for this yield range from empirical formulas and numerical cloud-rise models. Based on a preliminary analysis of cell phone footage, the observed maximum cloud height appears to be approximately 1600 m. This is much lower than that predicted using standard empirical formulas and buoyant cloud rise models. I present results from a modified buoyant cloud rise model that more accurately predicts the maximum cloud height by allowing for the inclusion of a fixed amount of air and/or water into the fireball at the start of cloud rise. The amount of mass that needs to be added at the start, to reproduce the observed maximum cloud height, is relatively small compared to the total mass entrained during cloud rise. A much greater amount of dry air or debris is required, relative to water, for an equivalent reduction in maximum cloud height. The ammonium nitrate is one possible source for water in the fireball since it was being stored in a very humid environment and ammonium nitrate is known to be hygroscopic. The ground beneath the explosion, especially if it were saturated, and the nearby harbor could also have been sources for water or debris in the fireball.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Joint Bayesian Inference for Near-Surface Explosion Yield and Height-of-Burst

Forensic capabilities to understand chemical and nuclear explosions are greatly aided by an accurate estimate of explosive yield with uncertainty. The relationship between explosive size and geophysical observations of seismic, acoustic, and optical waves can be exploited to provide an estimate of yield. Any near-surface yield estimate is complicated by the surface interaction, so an estimate for the explosion height-of-burst is necessarily included in the relationship. Additionally, the relationship dictates a trade-off between estimates of yield and height-of-burst. Fortunately, the surface interaction for each type of observation is different, which breaks the trade-off, and the inclusion of height-of-burst with multiple data types improves yield estimation. We define simple parametric forward models to relate seismoäcoustoöptic observations from a data set of known explosive yields and height-of-bursts. The parameters of the models and a prediction for the yield and height-of-burst of a new event can then be estimated given new observations via Bayesian inference. We report posterior distribution estimates of the parametric models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. These models are then used to predict the yield and height-of-burst of SUGAR, a historical near-surface nuclear explosion, using its reported historical observations. The reported yield of 1.2 ktonne Trinitrotoluene (TNT)-equivalent (Department of Energy, 2015) is within the estimated posterior. Yield uncertainty can be estimated from the spread of the posterior, which is between 0.9 and 2.1 ktonne TNT-equivalent. The posterior for height-of-burst has a wider range between 10 m below and 8 m above ground that includes the true height-of-burst of 1 m.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DATASET RELEASE AND QUALITY CONTROL REVIEW OF LIVERMORE NEVADA NETWORK (LNN) RECORDINGS OF A SUBSET OF NEVADA NUCLEAR SECURITY SITE NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS FROM 1979 TO 1992.

Geophysical research on historical nuclear tests is an important aspect of future monitoring capabilities in seismic research. This research is challenging due to the limited number of digital seismic recordings during the peak of nuclear testing (1945-1992). These limited records are unique and non-reproducible data with potential high research impact. Releasing available nuclear explosion seismic records to the explosion monitoring community is thus of high value and is the motivation for this dataset release. The target of this effort was on compilation and quality control of regional seismic records of nuclear explosions recorded on Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory stations ELK, KNB, LAC, and MNV, known collectively as the Livermore National Network (LNN) (Figure 1). LNN was established in the early 1960s for the primary purpose of monitoring underground nuclear testing at the former Nevada Test Site (NTS), now known as the Nevada Nuclear Security Site (NNSS) following the signing of the Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT). LNN consisted initially of short-period vertical component Benioff’s recorded on film located at Mina, NV (MNV) and Kanab, Utah (KNB). LNN added two additional stations at Landers, CA (LAC) and Elko, NV (ELK) in 1967 and upgraded equipment to broadband seismometers recorded on frequency modulation (FM) tapes from 1967-1979, followed by digital recordings after 1979 (Jarpe, 1989). The digital recordings were on a variety of now obsolete media, including 9-track, Exabyte, and DAT tapes. Jarpe (1989) describes the seismic station instrumentation details over the period of deployment. LNN recorded valuable non-repeatable unique data of several hundreds of nuclear explosions at NNSS, as well as earthquakes and chemical and mining explosions (Walter, 2020). The details of these nuclear tests are provided in the Department of Energy Report NV-209 Rev 16 (DOE, 2015).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mass Spectrometer Containing Multiple Fixed Collectors

A miniature mass spectrometer that incorporates features not typically found in prior mass spectrometers is undergoing development. This mass spectrometer is designed to simultaneously measure the relative concentrations of five gases (H2, He, N2, O2, and Ar) in air, over the relative-concentration range from 10(exp -6) to 1, during a sampling time as short as 1 second. It is intended to serve as a prototype of a product line of easy-to-use, portable, lightweight, highspeed, relatively inexpensive instruments for measuring concentrations of multiple chemical species in such diverse applications as detecting explosive or toxic chemicals in air, monitoring and controlling industrial processes, measuring concentrations of deliberately introduced isotopes in medical and biological investigations, and general environmental monitoring. The heart of this mass spectrometer is an integral combination of a circular cycloidal mass analyzer, multiple fixed ion collectors, and two mass-selective ion sources. By circular cycloidal mass analyzer is meant an analyzer that includes (1) two concentric circular cylindrical electrodes for applying a radial electric field and (2) a magnet arranged to impose a magnetic flux aligned predominantly along the cylindrical axis, so that ions, once accelerated into the annulus between the electrodes, move along circular cycloidal trajectories. As in other mass analyzers, trajectory of each ion is determined by its mass-to-charge ratio, and so ions of different species can be collected simultaneously by collectors (Faraday cups) at different locations intersected by the corresponding trajectories (see figure). Unlike in other mass analyzers, the installation of additional collectors to detect additional species does not necessitate increasing the overall size of the analyzer assembly.

Moskala, Robert↗

Multivariate analyses of crater parameters and the classification of craters

Multivariate analyses were performed on certain linear dimensions of six genetic types of craters. A total of 320 craters, consisting of laboratory fluidization craters, craters formed by chemical and nuclear explosives, terrestrial maars and other volcanic craters, and terrestrial meteorite impact craters, authenticated and probable, were analyzed in the first data set in terms of their mean rim crest diameter, mean interior relief, rim height, and mean exterior rim width. The second data set contained an additional 91 terrestrial craters of which 19 were of experimental percussive impact and 28 of volcanic collapse origin, and which was analyzed in terms of mean rim crest diameter, mean interior relief, and rim height. Principal component analyses were performed on the six genetic types of craters. Ninety per cent of the variation in the variables can be accounted for by two components. Ninety-nine per cent of the variation in the craters formed by chemical and nuclear explosives is explained by the first component alone.

Siegal, B. S.↗

Verification and validation of detonation-shock-dynamics relations for explosives described by general equation of state and chemical reaction models

Detonation shock dynamics is a powerful method to model the behaviour of High Explosives (HE). However in order to use this method, the underlying relationship between the local radius of curvature and the detonation speed must be known. Previous work has developed methods to calculate this effect using simple, single-step Arrhenius and polytropic gas, models for the chemical reaction and the equation of state, respectively. In recent years, more complex models for both reaction rates and equations of state have been developed which show better agreement with experimental data than these simple models, especially when considering condensed phase explosives.. This work presents the governing equations for solving these problems in a way that is generalised to use arbitrary equations of state as well as reaction models which may have more than a single step and multiple product species. This implementation is verified against exact solutions, demonstrating that the equations were implemented properly. The verified algorithm is then validated against experimental data and high fidelity simulations, showing that it is able to make accurate predictions in a regime where the underlying assumptions of the governing equations are valid. Importantly, this approach has many applications: from creating equivalent detonation shock dynamics models for existing reactive burn calibrations for HE; to developing new functional forms and calibrations of reactive burn models for condensed phase high explosives.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development and modeling for a small-scale, rapidly heated high explosives initiation time (HEIT) experiment

Most small-scale assessments of explosive sensitivity, including the popular drop-weight impact test, convolute thermal and mechanical phenomena to the extent that it has been extremely challenging to decipher how an explosive ignites and propagates reactions. For instance, an impact generates heat through a range of dissipation mechanisms, which can in turn, depending on the reaction rates of the explosive, lead to chemical decomposition. To deconvolute the various contributions to the sub-shock initiation and propagation of explosive reactions, we describe the development and modeling of the High Explosives Initiation Time (HEIT) test - a new, small-scale, high-throughput experiment designed to rapidly heat milligram quantities of energetic materials confined within small diameter steel needles. Specifically, we have modeled and designed a 250 joule pulsed power system capable of rapidly delivering electrical current to the needles, resulting in rapid heat delivery to the sample. In conclusion, the energy deposition rate into the sample is controlled by different transmission line topologies. Modeling in COMSOL is performed to understand the energy required to heat up the explosive sample.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Doping explosive materials for neutron radiographic enhancement.

Discussion of studies relating to the selection of doping materials of high neutron absorption usable for enhancing the neutron radiographic imaging of explosive mixtures, without interfering with the proper chemical reaction of the explosives. The results of the studies show that gadolinium oxide is an excellent material for doping explosive mixtures to enhance the neutron radiographic image.

Golliher, K. G.↗

Laser-induced gas breakdown - Spectroscopic and chemical studies.

Discussion of the results of several experimental investigations on laser-induced gas breakdown. The experiments included time-resolved spectroscopy, direct detection of H atoms with a TiO2 probe, and chemical reactions; each of them provided insight into the behavior of the medium at different times. Chemical reactions and explosions have been initiated by the laser beam when a plasma was created. No primary multiphotonic absorption and no macroscopic chemical reactions were observed below the breakdown threshold.

De Montgolfier, PH.↗

Legacy surface change analyses of the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence for direct comparison to planned NA-22 underground conventional high-explosive experiments (Source Physics Experiment 3 (SPE3) - RV/DC Task 1.3 FY22 Final Report)

Recent work under two previous phases of the NNSA NA-22 Source Physics Experiment (SPE) have shown that underground chemical high-explosive experiments can produce detectable surface changes that differ in spatial extent and vertical magnitude depending on the geologic media at the site (Schultz-Fellenz et al., 2018; 2020; Crawford et al., 2021). Neither of these two prior phases of SPE identified natural earthquake-related surface effects in the same region that occurred at a similar depth as the explosive experiments for direct comparison. While earthquakes can also produce surface changes that are detectable using remote sensing data analyses, it is expected that the pattern and spatial extent of surface changes would vary between earthquakes and explosions. However, no direct-observed surface-change signature comparison between earthquakes and explosions has ever been performed. The SPE Phase 3 Rock Valley/Direct Comparison (RV/DC) program presents a unique opportunity to investigate and characterize co-occurrence of both earthquakes and explosions. In this project, we worked to address five tasks in a workflow, as follows: 1. Identify and obtain existing high-resolution legacy satellite and aerial imagery as close in time before and after the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence to temporally constrain the analyses. 2. Transform these pre-earthquake and post-earthquake datasets into digital elevation models (DEMs) using geospatial analysis software packages (e.g., ArcGIS, Agisoft Metashape, and Google Earth Engine). 3. Perform DEM differencing analyses to assess and quantify earthquake-related changes from the 1993 sequence, and develop map products that visualize these analyses. 4. Use the analyses from (3) to: (a) assess spatial distribution and magnitude of surface changes due to the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake sequence, and (b) determine parameters of forthcoming, planned explosion-related surface change data collection from sensors mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) (e.g., spatial extent of collection, design and density of survey control, sensors to deploy, forward speed and line spacing of UAV flight lines, flight altitude). 5. Develop a summary report on the analyses, including how the analyses define parameters and identify focus areas for any future surface change analytical field campaigns related to the explosive experiment. Analyzing these legacy data and identifying whether they can detect any surface changes related to the earthquake sequence facilitates opportunities for direct signature comparison of surface change from explosions at one location, which has never previously been performed. Comparing the surface change signatures from a co-located and depth-equivalent earthquake and an explosion could help to advance remote sensing event discrimination techniques. This report summarizes the work completed toward this ambitious goal.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Epoxy blanket protects milled part during explosive forming

Epoxy blanket protects chemically milled or machined sections of large, complex structural parts during explosive forming. The blanket uniformly covers all exposed surfaces and fills any voids to support and protect the entire part.

Source record↗