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DOE OSTI2021

How structural differences influence cross-model consistency: An electric sector case study

Multiple models are often employed to describe a range of possible outcomes for one or more scenarios, yielding insights into causal relationships and their uncertainties. Electric sector capacity expansion scenarios are a common topic of such efforts due to the economic influence of the electric sector, but model results typically span a broad solution space despite efforts to harmonize input assumptions, making decision implications difficult to discern. This study investigates the relationship between input harmonization and cross-model scenario consistency under disparate electric sector scenarios. We compare cross-model consistency between two state-of-the-art electric sector capacity expansion models (GCAM-USA and ReEDS) for six electric sector scenarios comprising alternate assumptions about fossil fuel resource availability, technology innovation, and long-term economy-wide transitions under four harmonization configurations varying model representations of electricity demand, fuel prices, renewable resources, and capacity retirements. These comparisons reveal that cross-model consistency can vary across scenarios under a given harmonization configuration, suggesting that harmonization efforts must often be scenario-specific if comparable cross-model consistency is desired. Model structural differences can hinder consistency, and the impact of these differences can depend on the scenario. Ultimately, thorough harmonization can reveal insights into cross-model consistency, which can be used to tighten uncertainty bounds and improve the decision-making implications of multi-model activities.

Cohen, Stuart↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integration of ecosystem science into radioecology: A consensus perspective

In the Fall of 2016 a workshop was held which brought together over 50 scientists from the ecological and radiological fields to discuss feasibility and challenges of reintegrating ecosystem science into radioecology. There is a growing desire to incorporate attributes of ecosystem science into radiological risk assessment and radioecological research more generally, fueled by recent advances in quantification of emergent ecosystem attributes and the desire to accurately reflect impacts of radiological stressors upon ecosystem function. This work is a synthesis of the discussions and consensus of the workshop participant's responses to three primary questions, which were: 1) How can ecosystem science support radiological risk assessment? 2) What ecosystem level endpoints potentially could be used for radiological risk assessment? and 3) What inference strategies and associated methods would be most appropriate to assess the effects of radionuclides on ecosystem structure and function? The consensus of the participants was that ecosystem science can and should support radiological risk assessment through the incorporation of quantitative metrics that reflect ecosystem functions which are sensitive to radiological contaminants. The participants also agreed that many such endpoints exit or are thought to exit and while many are used in ecological risk assessment currently, additional data need to be collected that link the causal mechanisms of radiological exposure to these endpoints. Finally, the participants agreed that radiological risk assessments must be designed and informed by rigorous statistical frameworks capable of revealing the causal inference tying radiological exposure to the endpoints selected for measurement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Indicators of carbon alteration (ICAs) suggest patterns in reservoir methane emissions

Reservoir operations influence emissions via multiple causal pathways. In this paper, we quantify indicators of carbon alteration (ICAs) focused on methane. ICAs were chosen to reflect the potential for methane emission along four causal pathways: 1) water column mixing, 2) wet-dry cycles in sediment, 3) sediment redistribution, and 4) vegetation. We developed algorithms to calculate ICAs for three reservoirs along a longitudinal gradient in the Tennessee River basin of the southeast US. The ICAs revealed interesting longitudinal patterns. Indicators of both methane production and destruction increased downstream. The potential for ebullitive methane emissions driven by sub-daily water level fluctuations and emissions mediated by vegetation were higher in downstream mainstem reservoirs than in the upstream tributary reservoir. Along the remaining two pathways, longitudinal patterns were equivocal (sediment pathway) or suggested decreased emissions downstream (water-column mixing). We also observed seasonal patterns and, by combining ICAs, inferred times when ramping could be achieved with lower risk of emissions. The ICAs demonstrated here are the first step in quantifying mechanistic relationships between reservoir operation and methane emissions. In future, they may lead to improved operations in reservoir cascades and regional-scale estimates of emissions that account for differences among reservoirs.

Greenhouse gases↗

DOE OSTI2023

Do parcel lockers reduce delivery times? Evidence from the field

Common-carrier parcel lockers have emerged as a secure, automated, self-service means of delivery consolidation in congested urban areas, which are believed to mitigate last-mile delivery challenges through reducing out-of-vehicle delivery times and consequently vehicle dwell times at the curb. However, little research exists to empirically demonstrate the environmental and efficiency gains from this technology. In this study, we designed a nonequivalent groups pre-test/post-test control experiment to estimate the causal effects of a parcel locker on delivery times in a residential building in downtown Seattle, WA. Here, the causal effects are measured in terms of vehicle dwell time and the time delivery couriers spend inside the building, through the difference-in-difference method and using a similar nearby residential building as a control. The results showed a statistically significant decrease in time spent inside the building, and small yet insignificant reduction in delivery vehicle dwell time at the curb. The locker was also well received by the building managers and residents.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Localized High Concentration Electrolytes for High Voltage Lithium-Metal Batteries: Correlation between the Electrolyte Composition and Its Reductive/Oxidative Stability

We demonstrate a first-principles screening methodology as an effective tool to explore electrolyte formulations for the new generation of high energy density rechargeable batteries. We study the liquid structure and electronic properties in dilute electrolytes, high concentration electrolytes (HCE), and localized high concentration electrolytes (LHCE), with focus on electrolyte formulations based on lithium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide (LiFSI), dimethyl carbonate (DMC), and bis(2,2,2-trifluoroethyl) ether (BTFE) as a diluent. We describe the solvation complexes in the dilute electrolyte and explore structural changes triggered by the increase in lithium salt concentration for HCEs and the diluent effects in LHCEs. In HCE formulations, there is a 4-fold coordination environment of lithium-ions as in the dilute electrolyte, but the number of lithium-ion interactions with O atoms from FSI- anions dominates. In these solutions, the ability of the FSI- anions to interact with multiple lithium-ions allows complex 3D network formation and influences the reductive/oxidative behavior of the electrolyte. Interestingly, in LHCEs, the BTFE diluent molecules do not change the 3D solution structure when diluting the HCE formulation from 5.49 to 3.83 M. However, there is a composition threshold where the structural and electronic behavior may change. We show that diluting the HCE electrolyte with BTFE down to 1.77 M breaks the three-dimensional solution structure into an island-like solvation complex. We relate these structural changes to the electronic properties of the electrolytes finding a causal relationship between the reductive/oxidative behavior and the lithium-oxygen interaction mechanisms in the solvated complexes. The coordination with lithium-ions lowers the electrolyte LUMO and HOMO levels: the higher is the number of interactions with lithium-ions, the more likely the solvent molecule, FSI- anion, or diluent molecule is to be reduced and the less likely it is to become oxidized. The evolution of the solvated ion structure in HCE and LHCE suggests a close connection to a corresponding change in the lithium-ion transport mechanisms for these electrolytes.

anions, molecules, oxygen, solvents, electrolytes↗

DOE OSTI2022

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract Daily maximum temperatures during the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest United States and Canada shattered century old records. Multiple causal factors, including anthropogenic climate change, contributed to these high temperatures, challenging traditional methods of attributing human influence. We demonstrate that the observed 2021 daily maximum temperatures are far above the bounds of Generalized Extreme Value distributions fitted from historical data. Hence, confidence in Granger causal inference statements about the human influence on this heatwave is low. Alternatively, we present a more conditional hindcast attribution study using two regional models. We performed ensembles of simulations of the heatwave to investigate how the event would have changed if it had occurred without anthropogenic climate change and with future warming. We found that global warming caused a ∼0.8°C–1°C increase in heatwave temperatures. Future warming would lead to a ∼5°C increase in heatwave temperature by the end of the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cellular, molecular, and therapeutic characterization of pilocarpine-induced temporal lobe epilepsy

Animal models have expanded our understanding of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). However, translating these to cell-specific druggable hypotheses is not explored. Herein, we conducted an integrative insilico-analysis of an available transcriptomics dataset obtained from animals with pilocarpine-induced-TLE. A set of 119 genes with subtle-to-moderate impact predicted most forms of epilepsy with ~ 97% accuracy and characteristically mapped to upregulated homeostatic and downregulated synaptic pathways. The deconvolution of cellular proportions revealed opposing changes in diverse cell types. The proportion of nonneuronal cells increased whereas that of interneurons, except for those expressing vasoactive intestinal peptide (Vip), decreased, and pyramidal neurons of the cornu-ammonis (CA) subfields showed the highest variation in proportion. A probabilistic Bayesian-network demonstrated an aberrant and oscillating physiological interaction between nonneuronal cells involved in the blood–brain-barrier and Vip interneurons in driving seizures, and their role was evaluated insilico using transcriptomic changes induced by valproic-acid, which showed opposing effects in the two cell-types. Additionally, we revealed novel epileptic and antiepileptic mechanisms and predicted drugs using causal inference, outperforming the present drug repurposing approaches. These well-powered findings not only expand the understanding of TLE and seizure oscillation, but also provide predictive biomarkers of epilepsy, cellular and causal micro-circuitry changes associated with it, and a drug-discovery method focusing on these events.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unsupervised discovery of extreme weather events using universal representations of emergent organization

Spontaneous self-organization is ubiquitous in systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium. While organized structures that emerge dominate transport properties, universal representations that identify and describe these key objects remain elusive. Here, we introduce a theoretically grounded framework for describing emergent organization that, via data-driven algorithms, is constructive in practice. Its building blocks are spacetime lightcones that embody how information propagates across a system through local interactions. We show that predictive equivalence classes of lightcones—local causal states—capture organized behaviors in complex spatiotemporal systems. Employing an unsupervised physics-informed machine learning algorithm and a high-performance computing implementation, we demonstrate automatically discovering organized structures in two real-world domain science problems. We show that local causal states identify vortices and track their power-law decay behavior in two-dimensional fluid turbulence. We then show how to detect and track familiar extreme weather events—hurricanes and atmospheric rivers—and discover other novel structures associated with precipitation extremes in high-resolution climate data at the grid-cell level.

Rupe, Adam [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Population structure limits the use of genomic data for predicting phenotypes and managing genetic resources in forest trees

There is overwhelming evidence that forest trees are locally adapted to climate. Thus, genecological models based on population phenotypes have been used to measure local adaptation, infer genetic maladaptation to climate, and guide assisted migration. However, instead of phenotypes, there is increasing interest in using genomic data for gene resource management. We used whole-genome resequencing and common-garden experiments to understand the genetic architecture of adaptive traits in black cottonwood. We studied the potential of using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and genomic prediction to detect causal loci, identify climate-adapted phenotypes, and inform gene resource management. We analyzed population structure by partitioning phenotypic and genomic (single-nucleotide polymorphism) variation among 840 genotypes collected from 91 stands along 16 rivers. Most phenotypic variation (60 to 81%) occurred among populations and was strongly associated with climate. Population phenotypes were predicted well using genomic data (e.g., predictive abilityr> 0.9) but almost as well using climate or geography (r> 0.8). In contrast, genomic prediction within populations was poor (r< 0.2). We identified many GWAS associations among populations, but most appeared to be spurious based on pooled within-population analyses. Hierarchical partitioning of linkage disequilibrium and haplotype sharing suggested that within-population genomic prediction and GWAS were poor because allele frequencies of causal loci and linked markers differed among populations. Given the urgent need to conserve natural populations and ecosystems, our results suggest that climate variables alone can be used to predict population phenotypes, delineate seed zones and deployment zones, and guide assisted migration.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2021

A world without pythons would be so simple

We show that bulk operators lying between the outermost extremal surface and the asymptotic boundary admit a simple boundary reconstruction in the classical limit. This is the converse of the Python's lunch conjecture, which proposes that operators with support between the minimal and outermost (quantum) extremal surfaces—e.g. the interior Hawking partners—are highly complex. Our procedure for reconstructing this 'simple wedge' is based on the HKLL construction, but uses causal bulk propagation of perturbed boundary conditions on Lorentzian timefolds to expand the causal wedge as far as the outermost extremal surface. As a corollary, we establish the Simple Entropy proposal for the holographic dual of the area of a marginally trapped surface as well as a similar holographic dual for the outermost extremal surface. Here, we find that the simple wedge is dual to a particular coarse-grained CFT state, obtained via averaging over all possible Python's lunches. An efficient quantum circuit converts this coarse-grained state into a 'simple state' that is indistinguishable in finite time from a state with a local modular Hamiltonian. Under certain circumstances, the simple state modular Hamiltonian generates an exactly local flow; we interpret this result as a holographic dual of black hole uniqueness.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Gravity of two photon decay and its quantum coherence

A linear analytical solution is derived for the gravitational shock wave produced by a particle of mass M that decays into a pair of null particles. The resulting space-time is shown to be unperturbed and isotropic, except for a discontinuous perturbation on a spherical null shell. Formulae are derived for the perturbation as a function of polar angle, as measured by an observer at the origin observing clocks on a sphere at distance R. The effect of the shock is interpreted physically as an instantaneous displacement in time and velocity when the shock passes the clocks. The time displacement is shown to be anisotropic, dominated by a quadrupole harmonic aligned with the particle-decay axis, with a magnitude δτ ~ GM/c 3 , independent of R. The velocity displacement is isotropic. The solution is used to derive the gravitational effect of a quantum state with a superposition of a large number of randomly oriented, statistically isotropic particle decays. This approach is shown to provide a well-controlled approximation to estimate the magnitude of gravitational fluctuations in systems composed of null point particles up to the Planck energy in a causal diamond of duration τ = 2R/c, as well as quantum-gravitational fluctuations of black holes and cosmological horizons. Coherent large-angle quantum distortions of macroscopic geometry from fluctuations up to the Planck scale are shown to grow linearly with the duration, with a variance $\langle$δτ 2 $\rangle$ ~ τtP much larger than that produced in models without causal quantum coherence.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Anomalies of cosmic anisotropy from holographic universality of great-circle variance

We examine all-sky cosmic microwave background temperature maps on large angular scales to compare their consistency with two scenarios: the standard inflationary quantum picture, and a distribution constrained to have a universal variance of primordial curvature perturbations on great circles. The latter symmetry is not a property of standard quantum inflation, but may be a symmetry of holographic models with causal quantum coherence on null surfaces. Since the variation of great-circle variance is dominated by the largest angular scale modes, in the latter case the amplitude and direction of the unobserved intrinsic dipole (that is, the ℓ = 1 harmonics) can be estimated from measured ℓ = 2, 3 harmonics by minimizing the variance of great-circle variances including only ℓ = 1, 2, 3 modes. It is found that including the estimated intrinsic dipole leads to a nearly-null angular correlation function over a wide range of angles, in agreement with a null anti-hemispherical symmetry independently motivated by holographic causal arguments, but highly anomalous in standard cosmology. Simulations are used here to show that simultaneously imposing the constraints of universal great-circle variance and the vanishing of the angular correlation function over a wide range of angles tends to require patterns that are unusual in the standard picture, such as anomalously high sectorality of the ℓ = 3 components, and a close alignment of principal axes of ℓ = 2 and ℓ = 3 components, that have been previously noted on the actual sky. The precision of these results appears to be primarily limited by errors introduced by models of Galactic foregrounds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deforestation reshapes land-surface energy-flux partitioning

Land-use and land-cover change significantly modify local land-surface characteristics and water/energy exchanges, which can lead to atmospheric circulation and regional climate changes. In particular, deforestation accounts for a large portion of global land-use changes, which transforms forests into other land cover types, such as croplands and grazing lands. Many previous efforts have focused on observing and modeling land–atmosphere–water/energy fluxes to investigate land–atmosphere coupling induced by deforestation. However, interpreting land–atmosphere–water/energy-flux responses to deforestation is often complicated by the concurrent impacts from shifts in land-surface properties versus background atmospheric forcings. In this study, we used 29 paired FLUXNET sites, to improve understanding of how deforested land surfaces drive changes in surface-energy-flux partitioning. Each paired sites included an intact forested and non-forested site that had similar background climate. We employed transfer entropy, a method based on information theory, to diagnose directional controls between coupling variables, and identify nonlinear cause–effect relationships. Transfer entropy is a powerful tool to detective causal relationships in nonlinear and asynchronous systems. The paired eddy covariance flux measurements showed consistent and strong information flows from vegetation activity (gross primary productivity (GPP)) and physical climate (e.g. shortwave radiation, air temperature) to evaporative fraction (EF) over both non-forested and forested land surfaces. More importantly, the information transfers from radiation, precipitation, and GPP to EF were significantly reduced at non-forested sites, compared to forested sites. We then applied these observationally constrained metrics as benchmarks to evaluate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). ELM predicted vegetation controls on EF relatively well, but underpredicted climate factors on EF, indicating model deficiencies in describing the relationships between atmospheric state and surface fluxes. Moreover, changes in controls on surface energy flux partitioning due to deforestation were not detected in the model. We highlight the need for benchmarking model simulated surface-energy fluxes and the corresponding causal relationships against those of observations, to improve our understanding of model predictability on how deforestation reshapes land surface energy fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reactome and the Gene Ontology: digital convergence of data resources

Abstract Motivation Gene Ontology Causal Activity Models (GO-CAMs) assemble individual associations of gene products with cellular components, molecular functions and biological processes into causally linked activity flow models. Pathway databases such as the Reactome Knowledgebase create detailed molecular process descriptions of reactions and assemble them, based on sharing of entities between individual reactions into pathway descriptions. Results To convert the rich content of Reactome into GO-CAMs, we have developed a software tool, Pathways2GO, to convert the entire set of normal human Reactome pathways into GO-CAMs. This conversion yields standard GO annotations from Reactome content and supports enhanced quality control for both Reactome and GO, yielding a nearly seamless conversion between these two resources for the bioinformatics community. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A single amino acid change led to structural and functional differentiation of PvHd1 to control flowering in switchgrass

Abstract Switchgrass, a forage and bioenergy crop, occurs as two main ecotypes with different but overlapping ranges of adaptation. The two ecotypes differ in a range of characteristics, including flowering time. Flowering time determines the duration of vegetative development and therefore biomass accumulation, a key trait in bioenergy crops. No causal variants for flowering time differences between switchgrass ecotypes have, as yet, been identified. In this study, we mapped a robust flowering time quantitative trait locus (QTL) on chromosome 4K in a biparental F2 population and characterized the flowering-associated transcription factor gene PvHd1, an ortholog of CONSTANS in Arabidopsis and Heading date 1 in rice, as the underlying causal gene. Protein modeling predicted that a serine to glycine substitution at position 35 (p.S35G) in B-Box domain 1 greatly altered the global structure of the PvHd1 protein. The predicted variation in protein compactness was supported in vitro by a 4 °C shift in denaturation temperature. Overexpressing the PvHd1-p.35S allele in a late-flowering CONSTANS-null Arabidopsis mutant rescued earlier flowering, whereas PvHd1-p.35G had a reduced ability to promote flowering, demonstrating that the structural variation led to functional divergence. Our findings provide us with a tool to manipulate the timing of floral transition in switchgrass cultivars and, potentially, expand their cultivation range.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decoding crops one cell at a time: from cell atlases to single-cell genetics

Understanding the mechanisms underlying key agricultural traits remains a central challenge in crop research, but recent advances in technologies are providing powerful tools to address this issue. Among these, single-cell and spatial transcriptomics have revealed tissue heterogeneity and spatial organization, offering unique insights into cellular gene expression dynamics and the coordinated activity of multiple cell types. These approaches help uncover how specific cell types contribute to agricultural traits and refine candidate loci lists through integration with trait-associated loci. Additionally, single-cell and spatial transcriptomics have the potential to serve as cell-level readout platforms integrating cellular perturbations, enabling high-throughput discovery of causal relationships between genotype and gene expression at the cellular level in plants. Successful implementation will accelerate the identification of key genetic variants for crop improvement. Furthermore we review lessons learned from application of single-cell screening in mammalian cells, highlight major technical and biological barriers to its use in plants, and outline potential strategies to overcome these challenges. Together, the widespread application and integration of single-cell and spatial transcriptomics with other technologies enable not only the descriptive cataloging of cell states but also the causal interrogation of sequence functions and regulatory networks at cell type resolution, ultimately advancing gene function studies and accelerating crop improvement.

Cellular heterogeneity↗

DOE OSTI2020

Elucidating Anthracnose Resistance Mechanisms in Sorghum—A Review

Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) is the fifth most cultivated cereal crop in the world, traditionally providing food, feed, and fodder, but more recently also fermentable sugars for the production of renewable fuels and chemicals. The hemibiotrophic fungal pathogen Colletotrichum sublineola, the causal agent of anthracnose disease in sorghum, is prevalent in the warm and humid climates where much of the sorghum is cultivated and poses a serious threat to sorghum production. The use of anthracnose-resistant sorghum germplasm is the most environmentally and economically sustainable way to protect sorghum against this pathogen. Even though multiple anthracnose resistance loci have been mapped in diverse sorghum germplasm in recent years, the diversity in C. sublineola pathotypes at the local and regional levels means that these resistance genes are not equally effective in different areas of cultivation. This review summarizes the genetic and cytological data underlying sorghum’s defense response and describes recent developments that will enable a better understanding of the interactions between sorghum and C. sublineola at the molecular level. This includes releases of the sorghum genome and the draft genome of C. sublineola, the use of next-generation sequencing technologies to identify gene expression networks activated in response to infection, and improvements in methodologies to validate resistance genes, notably virus-induced and transgenic gene silencing approaches.

Plant Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Perfect spinfluid: A divergence-type approach

We present a new formulation of nondissipative relativistic spin hydrodynamics that incorporates spin degrees of freedom into the divergence-type theory framework. Due to the divergence-type structure, it is straightforward to enforce nonlinear causality and symmetric hyperbolicity of the equations of motion, ensuring local well-posedness of the initial-value problem and stability of the theory. Furthermore, in a specific realization based on spin kinetic theory, we prove that the equations of motion remain nonlinearly causal and symmetric-hyperbolic to all orders in the spin potential, provided a specific thermodynamic constraint is satisfied. Here, this framework can be applied for numerical simulations to study the dynamics of spin-polarized fluids, such as the quark-gluon plasma in heavy-ion collisions.

Chirality↗