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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

An IEEE 1451.1 Architecture for ISHM Applications

The IEEE 1451.1 Standard for a Smart Transducer Interface defines a common network information model for connecting and managing smart elements in control and data acquisition networks using network-capable application processors (NCAPs). The Standard is a network-neutral design model that is easily ported across operating systems and physical networks for implementing complex acquisition and control applications by simply plugging in the appropriate network level drivers. To simplify configuration and tracking of transducer and actuator details, the family of 1451 standards defines a Transducer Electronic Data Sheet (TEDS) that is associated with each physical element. The TEDS contains all of the pertinent information about the physical operations of a transducer (such as operating regions, calibration tables, and manufacturer information), which the NCAP uses to configure the system to support a specific transducer. The Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) group at NASA's John C. Stennis Space Center (SSC) has been developing an ISHM architecture that utilizes IEEE 1451.1 as the primary configuration and data acquisition mechanism for managing and collecting information from a network of distributed intelligent sensing elements. This work has involved collaboration with other NASA centers, universities and aerospace industries to develop IEEE 1451.1 compliant sensors and interfaces tailored to support health assessment of complex systems. This paper and presentation describe the development and implementation of an interface for the configuration, management and communication of data, information and knowledge generated by a distributed system of IEEE 1451.1 intelligent elements monitoring a rocket engine test system. In this context, an intelligent element is defined as one incorporating support for the IEEE 1451.x standards and additional ISHM functions. Our implementation supports real-time collection of both measurement data (raw ADC counts and converted engineering units) and health statistics produced by each intelligent element. The handling of configuration, calibration and health information is automated by using the TEDS in combination with other electronic data sheets extensions to convey health parameters. By integrating the IEEE 1451.1 Standard for a Smart Transducer Interface with ISHM technologies, each element within a complex system becomes a highly flexible computation engine capable of self-validation and performing other measures of the quality of information it is producing.

Morris, Jon A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-fidelity thermal modeling of laser powder bed additive manufacturing

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Additive manufacturing (AM) has attracted interest as an agile method of building production metal parts to reduce design-build-test cycle times for systems. However, predicting part performance is difficult due to inherent process variabilities. This makes qualification challenging. Computational process models have attempted to address some of these challenges, including mesoscale, full physics models and reduced fidelity conduction models. The goal of this work is credible multi-fidelity modeling of the LPBF process by investigating methods for estimating the error between models of two different fidelities. Two methods of error estimation are investigated, adjoint-based error estimation and Bayesian calibration. Adjoint-based error estimation is found to effectively bounding the error between the two models, but with very conservative bounds, making predictions highly uncertain. Bayesian parameter calibration applied to conduction model heat source parameters is found to effectively bound the observed error between the models for melt pool morphology quantities of interest. However, the calibrations do not effectively bound the error in heat distribution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2002

Monitoring of Observation Errors from Satellite Ozone Instruments in Assimilation

Ozone distributions derived from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instruments and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) have been assimilated in near-real time at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office since January 2000. Observed-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals are the differences between the incoming ozone data and the co-located short-term model forecast. They are routinely produced and monitored in the assimilation process. Using examples from the NOAA-14 and NOAA-16 SBUV/2 and the EP-TOMS instruments, it is demonstrated that the monitoring of time series of O-F residual statistics is an effective method of identifying time-dependent changes in the observation-error characteristics of ozone. In addition, the data assimilation system was used to assist the validation of updated calibration coefficients for the NOAA-14 SBUV/2 instrument. This assimilation-based monitoring work will be extended to ozone data from instruments on new satellites: Envisat EOS, Aqua, and EOS Aura.

Stajner, Ivanka↗
NASA NTRS2005

Automated daily processing of more than 1000 ground-based GPS receivers for studying intense ionospheric storms

To take advantage of the vast amount of GPS data, researchers use a number of techniques to estimate satellite and receiver interfrequency biases and the total electron content (TEC) of the ionosphere. Most techniques estimate vertical ionospheric structure and, simultaneously, hardware-related biases treated as nuisance parameters. These methods often are limited to 200 GPS receivers and use a sequential least squares or Kalman filter approach. The biases are later removed from the measurements to obtain unbiased TEC. In our approach to calibrating GPS receiver and transmitter interfrequency biases we take advantage of all available GPS receivers using a new processing algorithm based on the Global Ionospheric Mapping (GIM) software developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This new capability is designed to estimate receiver biases for all stations. We solve for the instrumental biases by modeling the ionospheric delay and removing it from the observation equation using precomputed GIM maps. The precomputed GIM maps rely on 200 globally distributed GPS receivers to establish the ''background'' used to model the ionosphere at the remaining 800 GPS sites.

total electron content (TEC)↗
NASA NTRS2005

Quantitative Electron Probe Microanalysis: State of the Art

Quantitative electron-probe microanalysis (EPMA) has improved due to better instrument design and X-ray correction methods. Design improvement of the electron column and X-ray spectrometer has resulted in measurement precision that exceeds analytical accuracy. Wavelength-dispersive spectrometer (WDS) have layered-dispersive diffraction crystals with improved light-element sensitivity. Newer energy-dispersive spectrometers (EDS) have Si-drift detector elements, thin window designs, and digital processing electronics with X-ray throughput approaching that of WDS Systems. Using these systems, digital X-ray mapping coupled with spectrum imaging is a powerful compositional mapping tool. Improvements in analytical accuracy are due to better X-ray correction algorithms, mass absorption coefficient data sets,and analysis method for complex geometries. ZAF algorithms have ban superceded by Phi(pz) algorithms that better model the depth distribution of primary X-ray production. Complex thin film and particle geometries are treated using Phi(pz) algorithms, end results agree well with Monte Carlo simulations. For geological materials, X-ray absorption dominates the corretions end depends on the accuracy of mass absorption coefficient (MAC) data sets. However, few MACs have been experimentally measured, and the use of fitted coefficients continues due to general success of the analytical technique. A polynomial formulation of the Bence-Albec alpha-factor technique, calibrated using Phi(pz) algorithms, is used to critically evaluate accuracy issues and can be also be used for high 2% relative and is limited by measurement precision for ideal cases, but for many elements the analytical accuracy is unproven. The EPMA technique has improved to the point where it is frequently used instead of the petrogaphic microscope for reconnaissance work. Examples of stagnant research areas are: WDS detector design characterization of calibration standards, and the need for more complete treatment of the continuum X-ray fluorescence correction.

Carpernter, P. K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Smart detection of indoor occupant thermal state via infrared thermography, computer vision, and machine learning

The ability to measure occupants’ thermal state in real time will enable major advances in the control of air conditioning systems. This study proposes predicting occupant thermal state by a combination of infrared thermography, computer vision, and machine learning. The approach (1) uses cheek, nose, and hand temperatures because they are least subject to blockage by hair, glasses, and clothing; (2) measures the distribution of skin temperatures within geometrically defined sub-areas of the face and hand; and (3) uses temperature differences within and between these areas to eliminate the effects of calibration drift that are unavoidable in thermal infrared (TIR) cameras. Two series of tests were conducted, respectively in an outdoor carport and an indoor environmental chamber, collecting a total of 48,422 sets of cheek, nose, and hand skin temperatures using a TIR camera and computer-vision technology, coupled with 715 subjective responses of thermal sensations. To predict occupant thermal state, Random Forest classification models were built using either absolute skin temperatures (the maximum and median temperatures of cheek and hand segments, and the temperature of the central spot on the nose), or intra- and inter-segment temperature differences of cheeks, hands, and nose. These measurements were found to accurately predict occupant thermal state. Using the maximum and median temperatures for cheek and nose, or for cheek and hand, predicts thermal state with an accuracy of 92–96%. In conclusion, using only the intra- and inter-segment temperature differences from cheek and nose is 83% accurate; adding the hand temperature differences increases the accuracy to 96%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multi-Anvil Experimentation Applied to Planetary Differentiation

Planets undergo differentiation that includes segregation of metal from silicate at high temperatures and pressures ranging from deep planetary core pressures (>300 GPa for Earth)to very shallow conditions of asteroids (<100 MPa).The multi-anvil solid media apparatus accesses the middle part of this range from 3 to 30 GPa –pressure relevant to the interior of Mercury, Venus, Earth, Earth’s Moon, and Mars. Early planets are thought to have experienced high temperatures from a combination of heat sources including radioactive decay, gravitational and accretional heating, and impact processes. These heating events led to melting of mantles and cores, thus requiring an understanding of solid-liquid equilibria in metal-silicate systems. In 2006 we established a multi-anvil facility at NASA-JSC combining an 880 ton press and a Kawai/Walker type module from Rockland Research. Our high PT work has been greatly facilitated by use of the COMPRES multi-anvil assemblies (1). Our recent work has included studies of element partitioning between liquid metal and liquid silicate(e.g., 2), as well as between minerals and melts(e.g., 3), both of which have led to better constraints on the timing and conditions of planetary differentiation(e.g. 4). Several examples involving sustained efforts will be summarized below and for the presentation. The distribution of siderophile (iron-loving) elements between core and mantle is controlled by metal-silicate equilibrium across a wide range of pressures. Therefore, experimentation across this pressure range helps to calibrate elemental partitioning models that can be applied to planets, and used to predict mantle chemistry and composition during planetary differentiation. Our studies have focused on a wide range of siderophile elements (refractory Ni, Co, W, Mo; volatile P, Ga, Cu, Sn, Sb; highly siderophile Au, Pd) that have constrained partitioning, valence, and isotopic fractionation, and applied to Earth, Moon, and Mars. When molten mantles (magma oceans) cool enough to initiate crystallization, the solids precipitate at depth and in large planets this involves high pressure phases like garnet, majorite, akimotoite, and ringwoodite. As these solids precipitate they can segregate from liquid by density contrasts, thus causing elemental fractionation which can be used to decipher timing of differentiation. Mineral/melt and metal/silicate equilibria in our lab have helped to better understand high pressure fractionation of isotopic parent/daughter pairs Hf/W, Mn/Cr, Pd/Ag, Pt/Os, Re/Os, and U/Pb, and their application to Earth, Moon and Mars. There remains great potential for multi-anvil experimentation to shed light on many pressure–dependent aspects of planetary evolution such as core formation, high pressure phase equilibria, redox equilibria, and volatile evolution and storage. References1. Leinenweber, K., et al.(2012) American Mineralogist,97, 353–368. 2.Righter, K., et al.(2020) Geochem. Persp. Lett.15, 1-6.3. Righter, K., et al.(2020) Met. Planet. Sci 55, 2741-2757.4. Righter, K., et al.(2020)Earth and Planetary Science Letters,552, 116590.

pressure↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Entry Descent and Landing Aerodynamic Databases with Uncertainty Quantification Developed Using Machine Learning Techniques

When developing the aerodynamic databases for use in trajectory simulations, it is important to develop a system of metrics to qualify which aerodynamic models are best to use. Since aerodynamics are just one input into trajectory simulations, the results of these simulations do not reflect on the quality of the aerodynamic database used. This means that aerodynamic database comparisons must be done offline. While traditional metrics that focus on mean/nominal predictions are a good first step, more robust estimates of the prediction interval become important as more focused uncertainty models are developed. We explore the limitations of evaluating aerodynamic models based purely on nominal-centered response surfaces. Before elaborating and evaluating metrics based on distributed models, the value of evaluating prediction interval and confidence interval are discussed to conclude that prediction intervals are more relevant to the use of trajectory analysis. Several metrics to evaluate the prediction interval are introduced with a focus on the standard calibration metric. Finally, we compare candidate models using both mean and distributed metrics. A finalized candidate model developed using state of the art machine learning methods is compared to a baseline model developed using traditional aerodynamic database modeling techniques.

Aerodynamic Database↗
DOE OSTI2020

Discrete element modeling of switchgrass particles under compression and rotational shear

Switchgrass is a perennial herbaceous plant regarded as a biomass energy crop in the United States for its highadaptability and yield potential. Processing and handling of switchgrass particles are challenging due to the erratic mechanical and flow behavior originating from their intrinsic particulate properties. Here, we present a bonded-sphere discrete element model designed specifically for switchgrass particles. The model simultaneously captures three key particulate features, i.e., fibrous particle shapes, a wide range of particle sizes, and particle deformability. Realistic yet computationally efficient particle shape templates are created based on the image analysis data of switchgrass specimens. A fitting procedure is proposed to ensure both the particle width and length distributions are captured, a unique requirement for fibrous particles. Two full-scale numerical models, i.e., a uniaxial compression model and a Schulze ring shear model, are developed using information fromphysical experiments. The model is calibrated using experimental data of chopped-small switchgrass specimens, and then, is validated using data of chopped-large specimens in both compression and ring-shear tests. Numerical results show that the numerical models capture bulk densities accurately (with an error of 3%) while slightly underestimate the bulk friction angle. Furthermore, an extensive sensitivity analysis reveals that (1) switchgrass particles with rougher edges (due to different processing techniques) exhibit a higher shear strength and a lower flowability; (2) stiffer particles yield a lower bulk density (up to 21% lower) compared to more deformable particles, indicating particle deformability should be incorporated when modeling biomass flow in a preprocessing system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Miniature, Low-Power, Waveguide Based Infrared Fourier Transform Spectrometer for Spacecraft Remote Sensing

Fourier transform spectrometers have a venerable heritage as flight instruments. However, obtaining an accurate spectrum exacts a penalty in instrument mass and power requirements. Recent advances in a broad class of non-scanning Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) devices, generally called spatial heterodyne spectrometers, offer distinct advantages as flight optimized systems. We are developing a miniaturized system that employs photonics lightwave circuit principles and functions as an FTS operating in the 7-14 micrometer spectral region. The inteferogram is constructed from an ensemble of Mach-Zehnder interferometers with path length differences calibrated to mimic scan mirror sample positions of a classic Michelson type FTS. One potential long-term application of this technology in low cost planetary missions is the concept of a self-contained sensor system. We are developing a systems architecture concept for wide area in situ and remote monitoring of characteristic properties that are of scientific interest. The system will be based on wavelength- and resolution-independent spectroscopic sensors for studying atmospheric and surface chemistry, physics, and mineralogy. The self-contained sensor network is based on our concept of an Addressable Photonics Cube (APC) which has real-time flexibility and broad science applications. It is envisaged that a spatially distributed autonomous sensor web concept that integrates multiple APCs will be reactive and dynamically driven. The network is designed to respond in an event- or model-driven manner or reconfigured as needed.

Hewagama, TIlak↗
NASA NTRS2013

Testing Small CPAS Parachutes Using HIVAS

The High Velocity Airflow System (HIVAS) facility at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake was successfully used as an alternative to flight test to determine parachute drag performance of two small Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) canopies. A similar parachute with known performance was also tested as a control. Realtime computations of drag coefficient were unrealistically low. This is because HIVAS produces a non-uniform flow which rapidly decays from a high central core flow. Additional calibration runs were performed to characterize this flow assuming radial symmetry from the centerline. The flow field was used to post-process effective flow velocities at each throttle setting and parachute diameter using the definition of the momentum flux factor. Because one parachute had significant oscillations, additional calculations were required to estimate the projected flow at off-axis angles. The resulting drag data from HIVAS compared favorably to previously estimated parachute performance based on scaled data from analogous CPAS parachutes. The data will improve drag area distributions in the next version of the CPAS Model Memo.

Ray, Eric S.↗
NASA NTRS1986

System identification for modeling for control of flexible structures

The major components of a design and operational flight strategy for flexible structure control systems are presented. In this strategy an initial distributed parameter control design is developed and implemented from available ground test data and on-orbit identification using sophisticated modeling and synthesis techniques. The reliability of this high performance controller is directly linked to the accuracy of the parameters on which the design is based. Because uncertainties inevitably grow without system monitoring, maintaining the control system requires an active on-line system identification function to supply parameter updates and covariance information. Control laws can then be modified to improve performance when the error envelopes are decreased. In terms of system safety and stability the covariance information is of equal importance as the parameter values themselves. If the on-line system ID function detects an increase in parameter error covariances, then corresponding adjustments must be made in the control laws to increase robustness. If the error covariances exceed some threshold, an autonomous calibration sequence could be initiated to restore the error enveloped to an acceptable level.

Mettler, Edward↗
NASA NTRS1994

Associated with aerospace vehicles development of methodologies for the estimation of thermal properties

Thermal stress analyses are an important aspect in the development of aerospace vehicles at NASA-LaRC. These analyses require knowledge of the temperature distributions within the vehicle structures which consequently necessitates the need for accurate thermal property data. The overall goal of this ongoing research effort is to develop methodologies for the estimation of the thermal property data needed to describe the temperature responses of these complex structures. The research strategy undertaken utilizes a building block approach. The idea here is to first focus on the development of property estimation methodologies for relatively simple conditions, such as isotropic materials at constant temperatures, and then systematically modify the technique for the analysis of more and more complex systems, such as anisotropic multi-component systems. The estimation methodology utilized is a statistically based method which incorporates experimental data and a mathematical model of the system. Several aspects of this overall research effort were investigated during the time of the ASEE summer program. One important aspect involved the calibration of the estimation procedure for the estimation of the thermal properties through the thickness of a standard material. Transient experiments were conducted using a Pyrex standard at various temperatures, and then the thermal properties (thermal conductivity and volumetric heat capacity) were estimated at each temperature. Confidence regions for the estimated values were also determined. These results were then compared to documented values. Another set of experimental tests were conducted on carbon composite samples at different temperatures. Again, the thermal properties were estimated for each temperature, and the results were compared with values obtained using another technique. In both sets of experiments, a 10-15 percent off-set between the estimated values and the previously determined values was found. Another effort was related to the development of the experimental techniques. Initial experiments required a resistance heater placed between two samples. The design was modified such that the heater was placed on the surface of only one sample, as would be necessary in the analysis of built up structures. Experiments using the modified technique were conducted on the composite sample used previously at different temperatures. The results were within 5 percent of those found using two samples. Finally, an initial heat transfer analysis, including conduction, convection and radiation components, was completed on a titanium sandwich structural sample. Experiments utilizing this sample are currently being designed and will be used to first estimate the material's effective thermal conductivity and later to determine the properties associated with each individual heat transfer component.

Scott, Elaine P.↗
NASA NTRS2003

NASA Tech Briefs, January 2003

Topics covered include: Optoelectronic Tool Adds Scale Marks to Photographic Images; Compact Interconnection Networks Based on Quantum Dots; Laterally Coupled Quantum-Dot Distributed-Feedback Lasers; Bit-Serial Adder Based on Quantum Dots; Stabilized Fiber-Optic Distribution of Reference Frequency; Delay/Doppler-Mapping GPS-Reflection Remote-Sensing System; Ladar System Identifies Obstacles Partly Hidden by Grass; Survivable Failure Data Recorders for Spacecraft; Fiber-Optic Ammonia Sensors; Silicon Membrane Mirrors with Electrostatic Shape Actuators; Nanoscale Hot-Wire Probes for Boundary-Layer Flows; Theodolite with CCD Camera for Safe Measurement of Laser-Beam Pointing; Efficient Coupling of Lasers to Telescopes with Obscuration; Aligning Three Off-Axis Mirrors with Help of a DOE; Calibrating Laser Gas Measurements by Use of Natural CO2; Laser Ranging Simulation Program; Micro-Ball-Lens Optical Switch Driven by SMA Actuator; Evaluation of Charge Storage and Decay in Spacecraft Insulators; Alkaline Capacitors Based on Nitride Nanoparticles; Low-EC-Content Electrolytes for Low-Temperature Li-Ion Cells; Software for a GPS-Reflection Remote-Sensing System; Software for Building Models of 3D Objects via the Internet; "Virtual Cockpit Window" for a Windowless Aerospacecraft; CLARAty Functional-Layer Software; Java Library for Input and Output of Image Data and Metadata; Software for Estimating Costs of Testing Rocket Engines; Energy-Absorbing, Lightweight Wheels; Viscoelastic Vibration Dampers for Turbomachine Blades; Soft Landing of Spacecraft on Energy-Absorbing Self-Deployable Cushions; Pneumatically Actuated Miniature Peristaltic Vacuum Pumps; Miniature Gas-Turbine Power Generator; Pressure-Sensor Assembly Technique; Wafer-Level Membrane-Transfer Process for Fabricating MEMS; A Reactive-Ion Etch for Patterning Piezoelectric Thin Film; Wavelet-Based Real-Time Diagnosis of Complex Systems; Quantum Search in Hilbert Space; Analytic Method for Computing Instrument Pointing Jitter; and Semiselective Optoelectronic Sensors for Monitoring Microbes.

Source record↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Radiative Flux Measurements from ARISE: A Comparison with CERES Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Fluxes

Uncertainty in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation fluxes observations are larger in the Arctic than in other regions. These uncertainties are due to the low sun angles and the highly reflective, anisotropic, and heterogeneous surface conditions. Quantifying, attributing, and reducing Arctic TOA radiative flux uncertainty enables a better understanding of the rapidly changing Arctic. To advance this goal, we compare the Cloud and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) TOA radiative fluxes with Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) campaign measurements collected in September 2014. We compare CERES TOA and aircraft radiative flux measurements using two complementary approaches: grid box average fluxes and instantaneously matched footprints. The grid box mean flux comparison indicates an agreement between CERES and aircraft measurements within 2 uncertainty (calibration and inversion) in the longwave for all five grid boxes and for four-of-five grid boxes in the shortwave; shortwave and longwave mean differences are -7.9 and +2.3 Wm‑2, respectively. The comparison of 36 instantaneously matched footprints with aircraft measurements reveals mean differences of -10.5 and 0.4 Wm‑2 in the shortwave and longwave, respectively. To further explore the persistent negative difference in the shortwave, we further quantify the effects of temporal and spatial sampling differences, angular distribution models, and scene identification to CERES-aircraft differences. Our analysis indicates that sampling differences (including scene evolution) account for an additional 1.8 and 1.7% uncertainty in the shortwave and longwave, respectively and indicates no bias. After accounting for this sampling uncertainty, all CERES-aircraft grid box mean fluxes agree within 2 uncertainty. Scene identification errors due to sea ice concentration data set differences exhibit no bias in the shortwave flux difference and indicate the possibility of substantial differences in the CERES fluxes in specific cases with large spatial heterogeneity. Considering the instantaneously matched footprints, we find that the angular distribution models account may account for up to ‑7.3 Wm-2 of the persistent CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference due to systematic differences in the anisotropy for sea ice partly cloudy scenes. Additional analysis using a special scan model with the CERES FM2 instrument suggests a significant view zenith angle dependence of the CERES fluxes for sea ice partly cloudy scenes where shortwave fluxes systematically decrease with increasing view zenith angle; no dependence is found for other scene types. We conclude that (1) spatial heterogeneity and scene temporal evolution substantially limit our ability to use aircraft measurements to place strong constraints on CERES TOA fluxes and (2) that the representation of anisotropy in sea ice partly cloudy scenes is a significant factor contributing to the persistent negative CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference in this comparison and require additional data to analysis fully quantify the potential bias.

Patrick C Taylor↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A comparison between CERES TOA Radiative Fluxes and Airborne Radiative Flux Measurements from ARISE

Uncertainty in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation fluxes observations are larger in the Arctic than in other regions. These uncertainties are due to the low sun angles and the highly reflective, anisotropic, and heterogeneous surface conditions. Quantifying, attributing, and reducing Arctic TOA radiative flux uncertainty enables a better understanding of the rapidly changing Arctic. To advance this goal, we compare the Cloud and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) TOA radiative fluxes with Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) campaign measurements collected in September 2014. We compare CERES TOA and aircraft radiative flux measurements using two complementary approaches: grid box average fluxes and instantaneously matched footprints. The grid box mean flux comparison indicates an agreement between CERES and aircraft measurements within 2σ uncertainty (calibration and inversion) in the longwave for all five grid boxes and for four-of-five grid boxes in the shortwave; shortwave and longwave mean differences are -7.9 and +2.3 Wm 2, respectively. The comparison of 36 40 instantaneously matched footprints with aircraft measurements reveals mean differences of -120.25 and -1.00.4 Wm 2 in the shortwave and longwave, respectively. To further explore the persistent negative difference in the shortwave, Wwe further quantify the effects of temporal and spatial sampling differences, angular distribution models, and scene identification to CERES-aircraft differences. Our analysis indicates that sampling differences (including scene evolution) account for an additional 1.8 and 1.7% uncertainty in the shortwave and longwave, respectively and , but indicates no bias. After accounting for this sampling uncertainty, all CERES-aircraft grid box mean fluxes agree within 2σ uncertainty. Scene identification errors due to sea ice concentration data set differences exhibit no bias in the shortwave flux difference and indicate the possibility of substantial differences in the CERES fluxes in specific cases with large spatial heterogeneity. Considering the instantaneously matched footprints, we find that the angular distribution models account may account for up to 7.3 Wm-2 of the persistent CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference due to systematic differences in the anisotropy for sea ice partly cloudy scenes. Additional analysis using a special programmable scan model with the CERES FM2 instrument suggests a significant view zenith angle dependence of the CERES fluxes for sea ice partly cloudy scenes where shortwave fluxes systematically decrease with increasing view zenith angle; no dependence is found for other scene types. We conclude that (1) spatial heterogeneity and scene temporal evolution substantially limit our ability to use aircraft measurements to place strong constraints on CERES TOA fluxes and (2) that the representation of anisotropy in sea ice partly cloudy scenes is likely a significant factor contributing to the persistent negative CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference in this comparison and require additional data to analysis fully quantify the potential bias.

Patrick C. Taylor↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrological analysis in watersheds with a variable-resolution global climate model (VR-CESM)

Traditionally, watershed-scale hydrology is simulated by distributed hydrological models with offline meteorological forcing data, or by regional regional climate models that link atmospheric and land hydrology interactions. Global climate models (GCMs) are rarely used to study watershed-scale hydrology due to the relatively coarse grid resolution, computationally expensive downscaling, and simplified physical processes. Recently, however, watershed-scale hydrology analysis has become possible in GCMs due to the development of variable-resolution GCMs that dynamically couple the hydrological processes between atmosphere and land systems at fine resolutions in selected regions and coarse resolution elsewhere. In this study, we used the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with refined-resolution (14 km) in the western U.S. and eastern China to evaluate watershed-scale hydrology. Furthermore, we compared the historical VR-CESM outputs with gauge measurements and other hydrological models (e.g., National Water Model in the U.S.) and calibrated the subsurface runoff capacities in four mountainous watersheds. An RCP8.5 projection from 2007 to 2050 is used to estimate the impact of changing precipitation and snow climatology on watershed hydrology. We also analyzed the long-term runoff variability and the possibility of extreme runoff events as simulated by the VR-CESM. Although calibration is not possible in larger-scale watersheds, VR-CESM simulates the long-term annual variability of watersheds and provides insights on climate change impacts on hydrology. We conclude that refined-resolution VR-CESM can be used for watershed-scale hydrology analysis to understand water resources and water balance, in addition to traditional watershed-scale hydrological models. It enables hydrological analysis at multiple watersheds in one simulation and can help understand the two-way dynamics between land surface hydrology and atmospheric processes, and is especially practical for projecting climate change impacts. However, it is challenging to apply VR-CESM for hydrologic analysis in regulated watersheds as human factors (e.g., pumping, irrigation, water diversion) have not been fully addressed in VR-CESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Probabilistic Material Strength Degradation Model for Inconel 718 Components Subjected to High Temperature, Mechanical Fatigue, Creep and Thermal Fatigue Effects

This thesis presents the on-going development of methodology for a probabilistic material strength degradation model. The probabilistic model, in the form of a postulated randomized multifactor equation, provides for quantification of uncertainty in the lifetime material strength of aerospace propulsion system components subjected to a number of diverse random effects. This model is embodied in the computer program entitled PROMISS, which can include up to eighteen different effects. Presently, the model includes four effects that typically reduce lifetime strength: high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Statistical analysis was conducted on experimental Inconel 718 data obtained from the open literature. This analysis provided regression parameters for use as the model's empirical material constants, thus calibrating the model specifically for Inconel 718. Model calibration was carried out for four variables, namely, high temperature, mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue. Methodology to estimate standard deviations of these material constants for input into the probabilistic material strength model was developed. Using the current version of PROMISS, entitled PROMISS93, a sensitivity study for the combined effects of mechanical fatigue, creep, and thermal fatigue was performed. Results, in the form of cumulative distribution functions, illustrated the sensitivity of lifetime strength to any current value of an effect. In addition, verification studies comparing a combination of mechanical fatigue and high temperature effects by model to the combination by experiment were conducted. Thus, for Inconel 718, the basic model assumption of independence between effects was evaluated. Results from this limited verification study strongly supported this assumption.

Bast, Callie Corinne Scheidt↗