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DOE OSTI2026

Constraints on White Dwarf Hydrogen Layer Masses Using Gravitational Redshifts

The hydrogen envelope is the outermost layer of a DA white dwarf; it makes up the entirety of the stellar photosphere, and yet its typical extent is difficult to model theoretically and remains poorly observationally constrained. As a result, hydrogen envelope mass is a substantial source of systematic uncertainty in the physical properties of white dwarfs, including overall masses and cooling ages. In this work, we fit a Gaussian mixture model to gravitational redshifts from high-resolution spectroscopy, paired with radius measurements from Gaia BP/RP spectra, to measure the mass–radius relation for a sample of 468 white dwarfs. Our results are in excellent agreement with the predicted mass–radius relations of state-of-the-art evolutionary models, including those from the MESA Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST) library. We find that mass–radius relations such as those from MIST that assume a thick and mass-dependent hydrogen envelope are preferred by the observed probability density function over models that assume a hydrogen envelope of constant mass. Proper treatment of the evolution of white dwarf progenitors is thus important for accurately modeling the mass–radius relation. Our results indicate that gravitational redshift measurements of large samples of white dwarfs in wide binaries are promising probes of the hydrogen envelope masses of DA white dwarfs.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
NASA NTRS2010

4U 1909+07: A Hidden Pearl

We present a detailed spectral and timing analysis of the High Mass X-ray Binary (HMXB) 4U 1909+07 with INTEGRAL and RXTE. 4U 1909+07 is a persistent accreting X-ray pulsar with a period of approximately 605 s. The period changes erratically consistent with a random walk expected for a wind accreting system. INTEGRAL detects the source with an average of 2.4 cps (corresponding to 15 mCrab), but sometimes exhibits flaring activity up to 50 cps (i.e. 300 mCrab). The strongly energy dependent pulse profile shows a double peaked structure at low energies and only a single narrow peak at energies above 20 keV. The phase averaged spectrum is well described by a powerlaw modified at higher energies by an exponential cutoff and photoelectric absorption at low energies. In addition at 6.4 keV a strong iron fluorescence line and at lower energies a black body component are present. We performed phase resolved spectroscopy to study the pulse phase dependence of the spectral parameters: while most spectral parameters are constant within uncertainties, the blackbody normalization and the cutoff folding energy vary strongly with phase.

Kreykenbohm, Ingo↗
NASA NTRS2013

Modeling the Redshift Evolution of the Normal Galaxy X-Ray Luminosity Function

Emission from X-ray binaries (XRBs) is a major component of the total X-ray luminosity of normal galaxies, so X-ray studies of high-redshift galaxies allow us to probe the formation and evolution of XRBs on very long timescales (approximately 10 Gyr). In this paper, we present results from large-scale population synthesis models of binary populations in galaxies from z = 0 to approximately 20. We use as input into our modeling the Millennium II Cosmological Simulation and the updated semi-analytic galaxy catalog by Guo et al. to self-consistently account for the star formation history (SFH) and metallicity evolution of each galaxy. We run a grid of 192 models, varying all the parameters known from previous studies to affect the evolution of XRBs. We use our models and observationally derived prescriptions for hot gas emission to create theoretical galaxy X-ray luminosity functions (XLFs) for several redshift bins. Models with low common envelope efficiencies, a 50% twins mass ratio distribution, a steeper initial mass function exponent, and high stellar wind mass-loss rates best match observational results from Tzanavaris & Georgantopoulos, though they significantly underproduce bright early-type and very bright (L(sub x) greater than 10(exp 41)) late-type galaxies. These discrepancies are likely caused by uncertainties in hot gas emission and SFHs, active galactic nucleus contamination, and a lack of dynamically formed low-mass XRBs. In our highest likelihood models, we find that hot gas emission dominates the emission for most bright galaxies. We also find that the evolution of the normal galaxy X-ray luminosity density out to z = 4 is driven largely by XRBs in galaxies with X-ray luminosities between 10(exp 40) and 10(exp 41) erg s(exp −1).

Tremmel, M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Craters of the Pluto-Charon System

NASA's New Horizons flyby mission of the Pluto-Charon binary system and its four moons provided humanity with its first spacecraft-based look at a large Kuiper Belt Object beyond Triton. Excluding this system, multiple Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) have been observed for only 20 years from Earth, and the KBO size distribution is unconstrained except among the largest objects. Because small KBOs will remain beyond the capabilities of ground-based observatories for the foreseeable future, one of the best ways to constrain the small KBO population is to examine the craters they have made on the Pluto-Charon system. The first step to understanding the crater population is to map it. In this work, we describe the steps undertaken to produce a robust crater database of impact features on Pluto, Charon, and their two largest moons, Nix and Hydra. These include an examination of different types of images and image processing, and we present an analysis of variability among the crater mapping team, where crater diameters were found to average +/-10% uncertainty across all sizes measured (approx.0.5-300 km). We also present a few basic analyses of the crater databases, finding that Pluto's craters' differential size-frequency distribution across the encounter hemisphere has a power-law slope of approximately -3.1 +/- 0.1 over diameters D approx. = 15-200 km, and Charon's has a slope of -3.0 +/- 0.2 over diameters D approx. = 10-120 km; it is significantly shallower on both bodies at smaller diameters. We also better quantify evidence of resurfacing evidenced by Pluto's craters in contrast with Charon's. With this work, we are also releasing our database of potential and probable impact craters: 5287 on Pluto, 2287 on Charon, 35 on Nix, and 6 on Hydra.

Robbins, Stuart J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Observing Merging Massive Black Hole Binaries with LISA

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is expected to detect gravitational radiation from the inspiral and merger of massive black hole binaries at high redshifts with large signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs). These high-SNR observations will make it possible to extract physical parameters such as hole masses and spins, luminosity distance, and sky position from the observed waveforms. LISA'S effectiveness as a tool for astrophysics will be influenced by the precision with which these parameters can be measured. In addition, the practicality of coordinated observations with other instruments will be affected by the temporal evolution of parameter errors such as sky position. We present estimates of parameter errors for the special case of non-spinning black holes. Our focus is on the contribution of the late inspiral and merger portions of the waveform, a regime which typically dominates the SNR but has not been extensively studied due to the historic lack of a precise description of the waveform. Advances in numerical relativity have recently made such studies possible. Initial results suggest that the portion of the waveform beyond the Schwarzchild inner-most stable circular orbit can reduce parameter uncertainties by up to a factor of two.

Thorpe, J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Taxonomy-Based Approach to Shed Light on the Babel of Mathematical Models for Rice Simulation

For most biophysical domains, differences in model structures are seldom quantified. Here, we used a taxonomy-based approach to characterise thirteen rice models. Classification keys and binary attributes for each key were identified, and models were categorised into five clusters using a binary similarity measure and the unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic mean. Principal component analysis was performed on model outputs at four sites. Results indicated that (i) differences in structure often resulted in similar predictions and (ii) similar structures can lead to large differences in model outputs. User subjectivity during calibration may have hidden expected relationships between model structure and behaviour. This explanation, if confirmed, highlights the need for shared protocols to reduce the degrees of freedom during calibration, and to limit, in turn, the risk that user subjectivity influences model performance.

model parameterisation↗
NASA NTRS1994

Composition of interstellar clouds in the disk and halo. 2: Gamma(sup 2) Velorum

High-resolution observations of gamma(sup 2) Vel with the Goddard High-Resolution Spectrograph (GHRS) echelle on the Hubble Space Telescope reveal the presence of seven narrow absorption components, with LSR velocities between -23 and +9 km s(exp -1). Three of these show column density ratios N(S(++))/N(S(+)) and N(P(++))/N(P+)) of about 1 or more, and can be identified as H II regions, while the other four are H I regions, consistent with the O I profile and with the overall H(sup 0) column density of 5.9 x 10(exp 19) cm(exp -2), given the usual assumptions that S is undepleted while O has a depletion D(O) = -0.3 dex. The depletions of Fe, Si, and Mn, which could be measure accurately for two of the four H I regions (components 6 and 7), differ somewhat from the values of D(sub ws) found for slowly moving warm clouds in HD 93521; in particular, for the component at 4.0 km s(exp -1) (No. 6), abosolute of D exceeds absolute of D(sub ws) by 0.1-0.4 dex, while for that at 9.3 km s(exp -1) (No. 7), absolute of D equals absolute of D(sub ws) on the average. The observed ratio of Fe + Mg atoms to Si atoms in the grains of component 6 is 2.04 +/-0.10, consistent with an olivine grain composition; the Fe/Mg ratio is 1.5 +/- 0.2. The electron density in component 6, determined from the C II(sup *) feature, is 0.075 +/- 0.013 cm (exp -3), about two-thirds of that found for clouds of this velocity in HD 93521. In the two conspicuous H II regions, components 3 and 4, n(sub e), determined from the Si II(sup *) feature, is about 1 cm(exp -3). From the column density of S(+) + S(++) in these two components, the total H II path length is about 40 pc. With the radius of a wind-blown bubble around gamma(sup 2) Vel set equal to 60 pc, the effective Stromgren radius is about 100 pc, requiring that T approx. equal to 50,000 K for the Wolf-Rayet component of the gamma(sup 2) Vel binary. Since zeta Pup is a comparable source of ionizing radiation, this temperature is an upper limit. The profiles of the strongest H2 absorption features, from Copernicus archives, indicate that the absorbing molecules have a mean velocity identical with that of the strongest H II component (No. 4). We have no explanation for the possible presence of these H2 molecules in a region of ionized H. Alternatively, the H2 profiles can be explained by molecules in the two adjacent (in velocity) H I regions, components 2 and 5, provided their H I gas has densities and temperatures typical of normal cold clouds. The GHRS data show absorption by highly ionized atoms Si(3+) and C(3+), N(4+) in broad features, in addition to the narrow-line absorption by Si(3+) and C(3+) observed in the dominant H II components, Nos. 3 and 4. The broad C(3+) and N(4+) features have widths corresponding to T in the range (4-8) x 10(exp 5) K, consistent with the broad O(5+) line shown in Copernicus data. Despite some observational uncertainties, the ratios of column densities in the broad C(3+), N(4+), and O(5+) features agree to +/- 0.1 dex with theoretical values for warm gas, heating and evaporating by thermal conduction from an adjacent hot region. Outward evaporation from an isolated cloud in a hot ambient gas cannot be distinguished, on the basis of these data, from inward evaporation of a warm shell, compressed by an expanding, hot stellar-wind bubble. For several halo stars, the C IV/O VI ratio has a quite different average value, perhaps consistent with cooling of infalling hot gas instead of conductive heating and evaporation.

Fitzpatrick, Edward L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Could a Kilonova Kill: A Threat Assessment

Abstract Binary neutron star mergers produce high-energy emissions from several physically different sources, including a gamma-ray burst (GRB) and its afterglow, a kilonova (KN), and, at late times, a remnant many parsecs in size. Ionizing radiation from these sources can be dangerous for life on Earth-like planets when located too close. Work to date has explored the substantial danger posed by the GRB to on-axis observers; here we focus instead on the potential threats posed to nearby off-axis observers. Our analysis is based largely on observations of the GW170817/GRB 170817A multi-messenger event, as well as theoretical predictions. For baseline KN parameters, we find that the X-ray emission from the afterglow may be lethal out to ∼1 pc and the off-axis gamma-ray emission may threaten a range out to ∼4 pc, whereas the greatest threat comes years after the explosion, from the cosmic rays accelerated by the KN blast, which can be lethal out to distances up to ∼11 pc. The distances quoted here are typical, but the values have significant uncertainties and depend on the viewing angle, ejected mass, and explosion energy in ways we quantify. Assessing the overall threat to Earth-like planets, KNe have a similar kill distance to supernovae, but are far less common. However, our results rely on the scant available KN data, and multi-messenger observations will clarify the danger posed by such events.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

A generalized analytical energy balance model for evaluating agglomeration from a binary collision of wet particles

Agglomeration of wet particles, i.e., particles coated with a thin liquid layer, is a common phenomenon in many processes like fluidized bed combustion of low rank fuels. The availability of an agglomeration model that can evaluate the outcome of a binary collision between wet particles differing in solid particle properties, liquid layer thicknesses, and initial collision (impact) speeds is essential for obtaining a comprehensive understanding on the existing processes experiencing wet particle agglomeration or for a successful development of new processes with high chances of wet particle agglomeration. This study presents a generalized agglomeration model on the basis of energy conservation before and after collision when colliding wet particles may differ in solid particle properties, liquid layer thicknesses, and impact speeds. The model was established based on the approximate values of energy losses that may happen during the collision. It incorporates body forces, solid-solid contacting, liquid capillary, and viscous contributions, as well as the liquid bridge volume effect. Predictions of the new model for collision outcomes of identical wet particles were like those from an analytical energy balance model developed recently by the group for identical wet particles. We also validated the new model by experimental data from literature. The results of a collision direction analysis indicated that the direction often has a minimal effect on the collision outcome in many practical scenarios. The results of Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses with the new model revealed that proper estimations of impact speed, under capillary limiting conditions, and thickness of coating layers and asperity heights, under viscous limiting conditions, are critical for the realistic prediction of collision outcomes at impact speeds close to critical impact speed, i.e., the minimum particle speed required for the particles to rebound.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Two Components of the Evolved Massive Binary LZ Cephei: Testing the Effects of Binarity on Stellar Evolution

We present an in-dep(h study of the two components of the binary system LZ Cep to constrain the effects of binarity on the evolution of massive stars. Methods. We analyzed a set of high-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio optical spectra obtained over the orbital period of the system to perform a spectroscopic disentangling and derive an orbital solution. We subsequently determine the stellar properties of each component by means of an analysis with the CMFGEN atmosphere code. Finally, with the derived stellar parameters, we model the Hipparcos photometric light curve using the program NIGHTFALL to obtain the orbit inclination and the stellar masses. Results.LZ Cep is a O9III+ON9.7V binary. It is as a semi-detailed system in which either the primary or the secondary star almost fills up its Roche lobe. The dynamical masses are about 16.0 Stellar Mass (primary) and 6.5 Stellar Mass (secondary). The latter is lower than the typical mass of late-type O stars. The secondary component is chemically more evolved than the primary (which barely shows any sign of CNO processing), with strong helium and nitrogen enhancements as well as carbon and oxygen depletions. These properties (surface abundances and mass) are typical of Wolf-Rayet stars, although the spectral type is ON9.7V. The luminosity of the secondary is consistent with that of core He-burning objects. The preferred, tentative evolutionary scenario to explain abe observed properties involves mass transfer from the secondary - which was initially more massive- towards the primary. The secondary is now almost a core He-burning object, probably with only a thin envelope of H-rich and CNO processed material. A very inefficient mass transfer is necessary to explain the chemical appearance of the primary. Alternative scenarios are discussed but they are affected by greater uncertainties.

Mahy, L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Improved Analysis of GW150914 Using a Fully Spin-Precessing Waveform Model

This paper presents updated estimates of source parameters for GW150914, a binary black-hole coalescence event detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) in 2015 [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 061102 (2016).]. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] presented parameter estimation of the source using a 13-dimensional, phenomenological precessing-spin model (precessing IMRPhenom) and an 11-dimensional nonprecessing effective-one-body (EOB) model calibrated to numerical-relativity simulations, which forces spin alignment (nonprecessing EOBNR). Here, we present new results that include a 15-dimensional precessing-spin waveform model (precessing EOBNR) developed within the EOB formalism. We find good agreement with the parameters estimated previously [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).], and we quote updated component masses of 35(+5)(-3) solar M; and 30(+3)(-4) solar M; (where errors correspond to 90 symmetric credible intervals). We also present slightly tighter constraints on the dimensionless spin magnitudes of the two black holes, with a primary spin estimate is less than 0.65 and a secondary spin estimate is less than 0.75 at 90% probability. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] estimated the systematic parameter-extraction errors due to waveform-model uncertainty by combining the posterior probability densities of precessing IMRPhenom and nonprecessing EOBNR. Here, we find that the two precessing-spin models are in closer agreement, suggesting that these systematic errors are smaller than previously quoted.

Abbott, B. P.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The influence of cloud cover on the reliability of satellite-based solar resource data

Satellite-based solar resource data are often developed and validated by using binary cloudiness categories: clear sky or overcast cloudy sky. To investigate the reliability of solar resource data in partially cloudy conditions, we estimate cloud fraction using two distinct algorithms: a physical retrieval model using surface observed global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) and a temporal average of cloud mask data estimated by the observed DNI. Our analysis reveals a significant presence of scattered clouds, broken clouds, and mismatches between satellite- and surface-based cloud data at 17 surface sites across the contiguous United States, though confidently clear and cloudy conditions collectively account for more than 70 % of the data. Solar radiation is computed using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) algorithm and validated using surface observations. Here, our findings suggest that, in the presence of scattered clouds, NSRDB data for clear-sky conditions can be subject to significant overestimation. In cloudy-sky conditions classified by satellite data, DNI computed by the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI) can be underestimated when limited clouds are detected by surface observations. The bias observed in several cloudiness categories indicates that the NSRDB is exceptionally accurate in confidently clear conditions. However, clear-sky conditions with scattered clouds and mismatched cloud data contribute significantly to the overall uncertainties in the NSRDB. Therefore, future improvements in solar resource data should involve development and implementation of satellite-derived cloud fraction and should consider a novel radiative transfer model accounting for amplified cloud reflection. The evaluation within cloudiness categories also provides a physical rationale for the superior performance of FARMS-DNI compared to the Direct Insolation Simulation Code (DISC) in both cloudy-sky and all-sky conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2000

The XMM-Newton View of Stellar Coronae: High-Resolution X-Ray Spectroscopy of Capella

We present the high-resolution RGS spectrum of the bright stellar binary Capella observed by the XMM-Newton satellite. A multi-thermal approach has been applied to fit the data and derive elemental abundances. The differential emission measure distribution is reconstructed using a Chebychev polynomial fit. The DEM shape is found to display a sharp peak around 7 MK, consistent with previous EUVE and ASCA results. A small but significant amount of emission measure is required around 1.8 MK in order to explain the O VII He-like triplet and the C VI Ly(alpha) line. Using the sensitivity to temperature of dielectronic recombination lines from O VI around 22 A, we confirm that the cool plasma temperature needs to be higher than 1.2 MK. In the approximation of a cool plasma described by one temperature, we used line ratios from the forbidden, intercombination, and resonance lines of the O VII triplet and derived an average density for the cool coronal plasma at the low density limit. A tentative study of line ratios from the M XI triplet gives an average temperature close to the sharp peak in emission measure and an average density of the order of 10(exp 12)cu cm, three orders of magnitude higher than for O VII. Implications for the coronal physics of Capella are discussed. We complement this paper with a discussion of the importance of the atomic code uncertainties on the spectral fitting procedure.

Audard, M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Robust A-Optimal Experimental Design for Sensor Placement in Bayesian Linear Inverse Problems

Optimal design of experiments for Bayesian inverse problems has recently gained wide popularity and attracted much attention, especially in the computational science and Bayesian inversion communities. An optimal design maximizes a predefined utility function that is formulated in terms of the elements of an inverse problem, an example being optimal sensor placement for parameter identification. The state-of-the-art algorithmic approaches following this simple formulation generally overlook misspecification of the elements of the inverse problem, such as the prior or the measurement uncertainties. This work presents an efficient algorithmic approach for designing optimal experimental design schemes for Bayesian linear inverse problems such that the optimal design is robust to misspecification of elements of the inverse problem. Specifically, we consider a worst-case scenario approach for the uncertain or misspecified parameters, formulate robust objectives, and propose an algorithmic approach for optimizing such objectives. Furthermore, both relaxation and stochastic solution approaches are discussed with detailed analysis and insight into the interpretation of the problem and the proposed algorithmic approach. Extensive numerical experiments to validate and analyze the proposed approach are carried out for sensor placement in a parameter identification problem.

Bayesian inverse problems↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural simulation-based inference of the neutron star equation of state directly from telescope spectra

Neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study strongly interacting matter under extreme density conditions. The intricacies of matter inside neutron stars and their equation of state are not directly visible, but determine bulk properties, such as mass and radius, which affect the star's thermal X-ray emissions. However, the telescope spectra of these emissions are also affected by the stellar distance, hydrogen column, and effective surface temperature, which are not always well-constrained. Uncertainties on these nuisance parameters must be accounted for when making a robust estimation of the equation of state. In this study, we develop a novel methodology that, for the first time, can infer the full posterior distribution of both the equation of state and nuisance parameters directly from telescope observations. This method relies on the use of neural likelihood estimation, in which normalizing flows use samples of simulated telescope data to learn the likelihood of the neutron star spectra as a function of these parameters, coupled with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the corresponding posterior distribution. Our approach surpasses the accuracy of previous methods, improves the interpretability of the results by providing access to the full posterior distribution, and naturally scales to a growing number of neutron star observations expected in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum-Inspired Bayesian Sampling for Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

With increasing simulation and measurement data, machine learning and artificial intelligence have been widely used in computational decision-making of complex engineering systems. The resulting tools, such as uncertainty quantification solvers, reinforcement learning, and physics-informed machine learning, have achieved great success in critical DOE tasks such as material discovery and design, energy system modeling and control, and numerical weather and climate prediction. A core topic in scientific machine learning and artificial intelligence is Bayesian inference: given an observed data set, people want to estimate the posterior distribution of a (possibly large) number of hidden parameters. Due to the flexibility and weak assumptions, Bayesian sampling has been the mainstream Bayesian inference solvers despite the rapid progress of approximate Bayesian inference. Classical Bayesian sampling methods such as Markov-chain Monte Carlo suffer from a low-acceptance rate due to the random walk nature, therefore state-of-the-art techniques use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants to efficiently draw posterior samples in a high dimension. The key idea of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants is to simulate the Hamiltonian dynamics of a classical particle with a fixed mass, and their performance significantly degrades when the posterior distribution is highly spiky or has multiple modes. Leveraging the idea of quantum physics, this project has investigated new theory, algorithms and applications of Bayesian inference (especially Bayesian sampling). The main results include: (1) novel quantum-inspired Bayesian sampling methods that can lead to better accuracy for challenging multi-modal or spiky distributions, (2) more scalable machine learning framework leveraging tensor-compressed Bayesian inference, and (3) Bayesian and sampling approaches for verifying the robustness of continuous and binary neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2007

Large Solar-Rejection Filter

NASA utilized Image Intensified Video Cameras for ATV data acquisition from a jet flying at 12.8 km. Afterwards the video was digitized and then analyzed with a modified commercial software package, Image Systems Trackeye. Astrometric results were limited by saturation, plate scale, and imposed linear plate solution based on field reference stars. Time-dependent fragment angular trajectories, velocities, accelerations, and luminosities were derived in each video segment. It was evident that individual fragments behave differently. Photometric accuracy was insufficient to confidently assess correlations between luminosity and fragment spatial behavior (velocity, deceleration). Use of high resolution digital video cameras in future should remedy this shortcoming. A scenically accurate description of matter interpreted as a substance made up of corpuscular constituents was established during the course of the 19th century. In this description, atoms--the building blocks of the matter--form molecules. The properties of the molecules were described by chemistry or thermodynamics depending on what characteristics of the matter were investigated. In both theories, the molecules can dissociate to atoms when the kinetic energies of the atoms exceed the strength of the chemical bonds. The number of atoms is always preserved in a closed system. This is not true, however, when the matter takes up much higher energies at relativistic scales. New particles can be produced at the expense of the kinetic energy. The number of particles is no longer preserved. There are other conserved quantities, however, these quantities, the charge, baryon number, lepton number, are associated with particles that are considered elementary today. The properties and behavior of these elementary particles is the subject of Particle Physics or High Energy Physics. Practice Page: A crewmember touching a positively charged surface was thought to be galvanically isolated from the vehicle ground analogous to a bird on a high voltage power wire. Recent analysis confirms that positive floating potentials, ionospheric currents to the EVA suit, can be hazardous. The analysis is wrong in that the ionospheric plasma itself can close the circuit. Parametric analysis of very low voltage exposures (2 to 15 volts) could cause pain and/or involuntary muscle tetani or spinal cord shock. NASA worked with the Naval Health Research Center Detachment Directed Energy Bioeffects Laboratory to examine the affects electrical hazards could have on extravehicular activity using two models. The results of the two computational models were combined to predict areas of the body in which neurons of different diameters would be excited. They predicted that physiologically active current could be conducted across the crew member causing catastrophic hazards. Future work to analyze additional current paths was proposed. The FUSE spectrum of BB Dor, observed in a high state, is modeled with an accretion disk with a very low inclination (possibly lower than 10 degrees). Assuming an average WD mass of 0.8 solar mass leads to a distance of the order of approximately 650pc, consistent with the extremely low galactic reddening in its direction, and a mass accretion rate of 10 (exp -9) solar mass a year. The spectrum presents some broad and deep silicon and sulfur absorption lines, indicating that these elements are over-abundant: silicon is 3 times solar, and sulfur is 20 times solar. The FUSE spectrum of BB Dor, observed in a high state, is modeled with an accretion disk with a very low inclination (possibly lower than 10 degrees). Assuming an average WD mass of 0.8 solar mass leads to a distance of the order of approximately 650pc, consistent with the extremely low galactic reddening in its direction, and a mass accretion rate of 10 (exp -9) solar mass a year. The spectrum presents some broad and deep silicon and sulfur absorption lines, indicating that these elements are over-abundant: silicon is times solar, and sulfur is 20 times solar. From its previously observed optical emission lines, P831-57 (WD 0334 6400 or Ret 1 in A Catalog and Atlas of Cataclysmic Variables: Living Edition) has been suspected to contain an accretion disk associated with a companion star in orbit around a subdwarf star with a temperature T is greater than 21,000K. P831-57 has therefore been classified as a nova-like. However, our present observations show it to be a DA + dMe binary. The analysis of its Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) spectrum (continuum and lines) reveal an average mass white dwarf (Log(g) approximately equals 7.8 plus or minus 0.1)with a temperature T approximately equals 37,000 plus or minus 500K, an extremely low projected rotational velocity, and a distance of about 115 plus or minus 5pc. The photosphere contains C, N, Si, and S (at about 1% of solar abundances). The dMe star is seen as a flux excess in near-infrared photometry and appears to show occasional flaring of about one magnitude as seen in the Harvard plates. There is no evidence of periodic variability in the spectroscopic or photometric data. We find no evidence of a an accretion disk, instead we find evidence of wind accretion as the stellar carbon abundance (N(C)/N(H) = 2.5 x 10 (exp -6) is about ten times larger than predicted by radiative levitation for such a gravity and temperature. The power needs and solutions for the space exploration and lunar mobility program are discussed. Long term missions in space and on the lunar surface require high energy batteries. Rechargeable batteries for mobility systems and portable utility pallet are needed for successful exploration missions. Nanomaterial usage increases the energy density of the cells apart from increasing the power density. The symptoms and threats from acute mountain sickness (AMS) are discussed. The underlying assumptions concerning spacecraft atmosphere mean there is a potential risk to astronauts. The baseline worst case scenario is about 25% based on direct ascent to 8.0 psia with 32% O2. The practical mitigation approach is a staged depressurization scheme. Due to the uncertainty about potential AMS risk the flight surgeon should prepare, focused research should proceed, and current analytical efforts should continue. This slide presentation reviews the threat astronauts face from acute mountain sickness (AMS). The incidence of AMS is highly variable and the risk to astronauts is unclear. However, the potential risk is higher than current EAAs suggest and precautions should be implemented. Due to the uncertain nature of the risk flight surgeons should prepare, and focused research should proceed. Quasiparticle tunneling can be understood at low temperatures using a non-equilibrium kinetic theory. Low-temperature tunneling can be suppressed using existing techniques: island-lead gap engineering, lead cooling with SIN junctions, and quasiparticle traps. The slide presentation reviews the science goals and mission planning for the proposed Jupiter System Observer (JSO). The spacecraft would accommodate 9 instruments making the instrument payload more capable than any previously flown to Jupiter. The would-be mission includes study programs for Jupiter's satellites, interior, magnetosphere and atmosphere. The power needs and solutions for the space exploration and lunar mobility program are discussed. Long term missions in space and on the lunar surface require high energy batteries. Rechargeable batteries for mobility systems and portable utility pallet are needed for successful exploration missions. Nanomaterial usage increases the energy density of the cells apart from increasing the power density. This slide presentation reviews the power requirements for the space exploration and the lunar surface mobility programs. It includes information about the specifications for high energy batteries and the power requirements for lunar rovers,

Roberts, William↗