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At least 235 records · Page 13

Design of a Uranium Dioxide Spheroidization System

The plasma spheroidization system (PSS) is the first process in the development of tungsten-uranium dioxide (W-UO2) fuel cermets. The PSS process improves particle spherocity and surface morphology for coating by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) process. Angular fully dense particles melt in an argon-hydrogen plasma jet at between 32-36 kW, and become spherical due to surface tension. Surrogate CeO2 powder was used in place of UO2 for system and process parameter development. Particles range in size from 100 - 50 microns in diameter. Student s t-test and hypothesis testing of two proportions statistical methods were applied to characterize and compare the spherocity of pre and post process powders. Particle spherocity was determined by irregularity parameter. Processed powders show great than 800% increase in the number of spherical particles over the stock powder with the mean spherocity only mildly improved. It is recommended that powders be processed two-three times in order to reach the desired spherocity, and that process parameters be optimized for a more narrow particles size range. Keywords: spherocity, spheroidization, plasma, uranium-dioxide, cermet, nuclear, propulsion

Cavender, Daniel P.↗

Measuring the Redshift Dependence of The Cosmic Microwave Background Monopole Temperature With Planck Data

We study the capability of Planck data to constrain deviations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) blackbody temperature from adiabatic evolution using the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich anisotropy induced by clusters of galaxies. We consider two types of data sets depending on how the cosmological signal is removed: using a CMB template or using the 217 GHz map. We apply two different statistical estimators, based on the ratio of temperature anisotropies at two different frequencies and on a fit to the spectral variation of the cluster signal with frequency. The ratio method is biased if CMB residuals with amplitude approximately 1 microK or larger are present in the data, while residuals are not so critical for the fit method. To test for systematics, we construct a template from clusters drawn from a hydro-simulation included in the pre-launch Planck Sky Model. We demonstrate that, using a proprietary catalog of X-ray-selected clusters with measured redshifts, electron densities, and X-ray temperatures, we can constrain deviations of adiabatic evolution, measured by the parameter α in the redshift scaling T (z) = T0(1 + z)(sup 1−alpha), with an accuracy of sigma(sub alpha) = 0.011 in the most optimal case and with sigma alpha = 0.018 for a less optimal case. These results represent a factor of 2-3 improvement over similar measurements carried out using quasar spectral lines and a factor 6-20 with respect to earlier results using smaller cluster samples.

cosmic background radiation↗

Arctic Tundra Vegetation Functional Types Based on Photosynthetic Physiology and Optical Properties

Non-vascular plants (lichens and mosses) are significant components of tundra landscapes and may respond to climate change differently from vascular plants affecting ecosystem carbon balance. Remote sensing provides critical tools for monitoring plant cover types, as optical signals provide a way to scale from plot measurements to regional estimates of biophysical properties, for which spatial-temporal patterns may be analyzed. Gas exchange measurements were collected for pure patches of key vegetation functional types (lichens, mosses, and vascular plants) in sedge tundra at Barrow, AK. These functional types were found to have three significantly different values of light use efficiency (LUE) with values of 0.013 plus or minus 0.0002, 0.0018 plus or minus 0.0002, and 0.0012 plus or minus 0.0001 mol C mol (exp -1) absorbed quanta for vascular plants, mosses and lichens, respectively. Discriminant analysis of the spectra reflectance of these patches identified five spectral bands that separated each of these vegetation functional types as well as nongreen material (bare soil, standing water, and dead leaves). These results were tested along a 100 m transect where midsummer spectral reflectance and vegetation coverage were measured at one meter intervals. Along the transect, area-averaged canopy LUE estimated from coverage fractions of the three functional types varied widely, even over short distances. The patch-level statistical discriminant functions applied to in situ hyperspectral reflectance data collected along the transect successfully unmixed cover fractions of the vegetation functional types. The unmixing functions, developed from the transect data, were applied to 30 m spatial resolution Earth Observing-1 Hyperion imaging spectrometer data to examine variability in distribution of the vegetation functional types for an area near Barrow, AK. Spatial variability of LUE was derived from the observed functional type distributions. Across this landscape, a fivefold variation in tundra LUE was observed. LUE calculated from the functional type cover fractions was also correlated to a spectral vegetation index developed to detect vegetation chlorophyll content. The concurrence of these alternate methods suggest that hyperspectral remote sensing can distinguish functionally distinct vegetation types and can be used to develop regional estimates of photosynthetic LUE in tundra landscapes.

VEGETATION↗

NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Statistical Approaches for the Definition of Landslide Rainfall Thresholds and their Uncertainty Using Rain Gauge and Satellite Data

Models for forecasting rainfall-induced landslides are mostly based on the identification of empirical rainfall thresholds obtained exploiting rain gauge data. Despite their increased availability, satellite rainfall estimates are scarcely used for this purpose. Satellite data should be useful in ungauged and remote areas, or should provide a significant spatial and temporal reference in gauged areas. In this paper, the analysis of the reliability of rainfall thresholds based on rainfall remote sensed and rain gauge data for the prediction of landslide occurrence is carried out. To date, the estimation of the uncertainty associated with the empirical rainfall thresholds is mostly based on a bootstrap resampling of the rainfall duration and the cumulated event rainfall pairs (D,E) characterizing rainfall events responsible for past failures. This estimation does not consider the measurement uncertainty associated with D and E. In the paper, we propose (i) a new automated procedure to reconstruct ED conditions responsible for the landslide triggering and their uncertainties, and (ii) three new methods to identify rainfall threshold for the possible landslide occurrence, exploiting rain gauge and satellite data. In particular, the proposed methods are based on Least Square (LS), Quantile Regression (QR) and Nonlinear Least Square (NLS) statistical approaches. We applied the new procedure and methods to define empirical rainfall thresholds and their associated uncertainties in the Umbria region (central Italy) using both rain-gauge measurements and satellite estimates. We finally validated the thresholds and tested the effectiveness of the different threshold definition methods with independent landslide information. The NLS method among the others performed better in calculating thresholds in the full range of rainfall durations. We found that the thresholds obtained from satellite data are lower than those obtained from rain gauge measurements. This is in agreement with the literature, where satellite rainfall data underestimate the 'ground' rainfall registered by rain gauges.

landslide prediction↗

Data analytics for intermodal freight transportation applications

With the growth of intermodal freight transportation, it is important that transportation planners and decision-makers are knowledgeable about freight flow data to make informed decisions. This is particularly true with Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) offering new capabilities for intermodal freight transportation. Specifically, ITS enables access to multiple different data sources, but they have different formats, resolutions, and time scales. Thus, knowledge of data science is essential to be successful in future ITS-enabled intermodal freight transportation systems. This chapter discusses the commonly used descriptive and predictive data analytic techniques in intermodal freight transportation applications. These techniques cover the entire spectrum of univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses. In addition to illustrating how to apply these techniques manually, this chapter will also show how to apply them using the statistical software R. Additional exercises are provided for those who wish to apply the described techniques to more complex problems.

Huynh, Nathan↗

Neural network approaches versus statistical methods in classification of multisource remote sensing data

Neural network learning procedures and statistical classificaiton methods are applied and compared empirically in classification of multisource remote sensing and geographic data. Statistical multisource classification by means of a method based on Bayesian classification theory is also investigated and modified. The modifications permit control of the influence of the data sources involved in the classification process. Reliability measures are introduced to rank the quality of the data sources. The data sources are then weighted according to these rankings in the statistical multisource classification. Four data sources are used in experiments: Landsat MSS data and three forms of topographic data (elevation, slope, and aspect). Experimental results show that two different approaches have unique advantages and disadvantages in this classification application.

Benediktsson, Jon A.↗

An introduction to the significance of sample size in particle analyses for nuclear forensics and radiological investigations

Particulate isotopic analysis in nuclear forensics has developed rapidly during the past two decades due to technical advances in determining the isotopic composition of individual particles. This paper introduces basic statistical concepts that can be applied by analysts to understand the importance of statistical adequacy when interpretating particle data. While these basic statistical methods provide a useful point-of-entry to particle data analysis, more sophisticated statistical and modeling approaches are needed to extract maximal information from such datasets in the future.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Excited-state uncertainties in lattice-QCD calculations of multi-hadron systems

Excited-state effects lead to hard-to-quantify systematic uncertainties in lattice quantum chromodynamics (LQCD) spectroscopy calculations when computationally accessible imaginary times are smaller than inverse excitation gaps, as often arises for multi-hadron systems with signal-to-noise problems. Lanczos residual bounds address this by providing two-sided constraints on energies that do not require assumptions beyond Hermiticity, but often give very conservative systematic uncertainty estimates. Here, a more-constraining set of gap bounds is introduced for hadron spectroscopy. These bounds provide tighter constraints whose validity requires an explicit assumption about an energy gap. Exactly solvable lattice field theory correlators are used to test the utility of residual and gap bounds at finite and infinite statistics. Two-sided bounds and other analysis methods are then applied to a high-statistics LQCD calculation of nucleon-nucleon scattering at $m_π\sim 800$ MeV. Generalized eigenvalue problem (GEVP) and Lanczos energy estimators are compatible when applied to the same correlator data, but analyses including different interpolating operators show statistically significant inconsistencies. However, two-sided bounds from all operators are consistent. Under the assumption that the number of energy levels below $NΔ$ and $ΔΔ$ thresholds is the same as for non-interacting nucleons, gap bounds are sufficient to constrain nucleon-nucleon scattering amplitudes at phenomenologically relevant precision. Lanczos methods further reveal that energy-eigenstate estimates from previously studied asymmetric correlators have not converged over accessible imaginary times. Nevertheless, data-driven examples demonstrate why assumptions are required to draw conclusions about the natures of two-nucleon ground states at these masses.

Detmold, William [MIT, Cambridge, CTP]↗

Consistent Tolerance Bounds for Statistical Distributions

Assumption that sample comes from population with particular distribution is made with confidence C if data lie between certain bounds. These "confidence bounds" depend on C and assumption about distribution of sampling errors around regression line. Graphical test criteria using tolerance bounds are applied in industry where statistical analysis influences product development and use. Applied to evaluate equipment life.

Mezzacappa, M. A.↗

Acoustic radiation and surface pressure characteristics of an airfoil due to incident turbulence

The noise and unsteady surface pressure characteristics of an isolated airfoil in a uniform mean velocity, homogeneous, nearly isotropic turbulence field were investigated. Experiments were performed with a 23 cm chord, two-dimensional airfoil over a Mach number range of 0.1 to 0.5. Far-field noise spectra and directivity as well as surface pressure spectra and cross-spectra were obtained. Incident turbulence statistics were documented. Theory applied to predict far-field noise and surface pressure characteristics from measured inflow turbulence statistics showed good agreement with measurement. The theoretical formulation represents a first-principles solution providing absolute level prediction without recourse to empirical or adjustable constants, and takes into account compressibility as well as source noncompactness effects. All chordwise portions of the airfoil radiated directly to the far-field, the leading edge to the dominant noise producing region. The effect of angle of attack on noise and surface pressures is small. The interaction of incident turbulence of approximately 4 percent intensity with an airfoil was found to be a broadband noise source of high intensity relative to other noise sources.

Paterson, R. W.↗

En route Spacing Tool: Efficient Conflict-free Spacing to Flow-Restricted Airspace

This paper describes the Air Traffic Management (ATM) problem within the U.S. of flow-restricted en route airspace, an assessment of its impact on airspace users, and a set of near-term tools and procedures to resolve the problem. The FAA is committed, over the next few years, to deploy the first generation of modem ATM decision support tool (DST) technology under the Free-Flight Phase-1 (FFp1) program. The associated en route tools include the User Request Evaluation Tool (URET) and the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA). URET is an initial conflict probe (ICP) capability that assists controllers with the detection and resolution of conflicts in en route airspace. TMA orchestrates arrivals transitioning into high-density terminal airspace by providing controllers with scheduled times of arrival (STA) and delay feedback advisories to assist with STA conformance. However, these FFPl capabilities do not mitigate the en route Miles-In-Trail (MIT) restrictions that are dynamically applied to mitigate airspace congestion. National statistics indicate that en route facilities (Centers) apply Miles-In-Trail (MIT) restrictions for approximately 5000 hours per month. Based on results from this study, an estimated 45,000 flights are impacted by these restrictions each month. Current-day practices for implementing these restrictions result in additional controller workload and an economic impact of which the fuel penalty alone may approach several hundred dollars per flight. To mitigate much of the impact of these restrictions on users and controller workload, a DST and procedures are presented. The DST is based on a simple derivative of FFP1 technology that is designed to introduce a set of simple tools for flow-rate (spacing) conformance and integrate them with conflict-probe capabilities. The tool and associated algorithms are described based on a concept prototype implemented within the CTAS baseline in 1995. A traffic scenario is used to illustrate the controller's use of the tool, and potential display options are presented for future controller evaluation.

Green, S.↗

Statistical mechanical model for crack growth

Analytic relations that describe crack growth are vital for modeling experiments and building a theoretical understanding of fracture. Upon constructing an idealized model system for the crack and applying the principles of statistical thermodynamics, it is possible to formulate the rate of thermally activated crack growth as a function of load, but the result is analytically intractable. In this report an asymptotically correct theory is used to obtain analytic approximations of the crack growth rate from the fundamental theoretical formulation. These crack growth rate relations are compared to those that exist in the literature and are validated with respect to Monte Carlo calculations and experiments. The success of this approach is encouraging for future modeling endeavors that might consider more complicated fracture mechanisms, such as inhomogeneity or a reactive environment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Laplace's method applied to functional integrals

In statistical thermodynamics, partition functions are required to evaluate the current state. It is typically impossible to analytically calculate the resulting configuration integrals, but it is sometimes possible to obtain approximations in the limit of steep potential energies. This approach directly leverages Laplace’s method for approximating integrals and has been quite successful in recent applications. Motivated by models with an infinite number of degrees of freedom, this approach should be extended to the statistical thermodynamics of fields. To that end, Laplace’s method is developed for functional integrals.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Free-Energy Calculations. A Mathematical Perspective

Ion channels are pore-forming assemblies of transmembrane proteins that mediate and regulate ion transport through cell walls. They are ubiquitous to all life forms. In humans and other higher organisms they play the central role in conducting nerve impulses. They are also essential to cardiac processes, muscle contraction and epithelial transport. Ion channels from lower organisms can act as toxins or antimicrobial agents, and in a number of cases are involved in infectious diseases. Because of their important and diverse biological functions they are frequent targets of drug action. Also, simple natural or synthetic channels find numerous applications in biotechnology. For these reasons, studies of ion channels are at the forefront of biophysics, structural biology and cellular biology. In the last decade, the increased availability of X-ray structures has greatly advanced our understanding of ion channels. However, their mechanism of action remains elusive. This is because, in order to assist controlled ion transport, ion channels are dynamic by nature, but X-ray crystallography captures the channel in a single, sometimes non-native state. To explain how ion channels work, X-ray structures have to be supplemented with dynamic information. In principle, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations can aid in providing this information, as this is precisely what MD has been designed to do. However, MD simulations suffer from their own problems, such as inability to access sufficiently long time scales or limited accuracy of force fields. To assess the reliability of MD simulations it is only natural to turn to the main function of channels - conducting ions - and compare calculated ionic conductance with electrophysiological data, mainly single channel recordings, obtained under similar conditions. If this comparison is satisfactory it would greatly increase our confidence that both the structures and our computational methodologies are sufficiently accurate. Channel conductance, defined as the ratio of ionic current through the channel to applied voltage, can be calculated in MD simulations by way of applying an external electric field to the system and counting the number of ions that traverse the channel per unit time. If the current is small, a voltage significantly higher than the experimental one needs to be applied to collect sufficient statistics of ion crossing events. Then, the calculated conductance has to be extrapolated to the experimental voltage using procedures of unknown accuracy. Instead, we propose an alternative approach that applies if ion transport through channels can be described with sufficient accuracy by the one-dimensional diffusion equation in the potential given by the free energy profile and applied voltage. Then, it is possible to test the assumptions of the equation, recover the full voltage/current dependence, determine the reliability of the calculated conductance and reconstruct the underlying (equilibrium) free energy profile, all from MD simulations at a single voltage. We will present the underlying theory, model calculations that test this theory and simulations on ion conductance through a channel that has been extensively studied experimentally. To our knowledge this is the first case in which the complete, experimentally measured dependence of the current on applied voltage has been reconstructed from MD simulations.

free energy↗

A statistical correlation method for the retrieval of atmospheric moisture profiles by microwave radiometry

A statistical correlation technique is applied to the retrieval of vertical moisture profiles under clear-sky conditions from down-looking radiometric measurements of atmospheric radiation at microwave wavelengths. For a given set of channels, the method selects the optimum radiometric channels for estimating water vapor at specific pressure levels between the surface and 300 mb. The water vapor mixing ratio at these pressure levels is then calculated from a linear combination of the selected channel brightness temperatures. To test its validity the algorithm was applied, in a numerical experiment, to fifty independent tropical radiosondes. The rms absolute deviation of the estimated moisture profiles from the actual profiles was comparable to that obtained using an iterative retrieval method reported earlier. The statistical method, however, requires several orders of magnitude less computer time than the iterative method; it is suitable for high speed processing of large amounts of data.

Kakar, R. K.↗

Modeling Protein–Protein and Protein–Ligand Interactions by the ClusPro Team in CASP16

ABSTRACT In the CASP16 experiment, our team employed hybrid computational strategies to predict both protein–protein and protein–ligand complex structures. For protein–protein docking, we combined physics‐based sampling—using ClusPro FFT docking and molecular dynamics—with AlphaFold (AF)‐based sampling, followed by AF‐based refinement. Our method produced numerous high‐accuracy complex models, including cases where AF alone failed, underscoring the critical role of physics‐based sampling alongside deep learning‐based refinement. For protein–ligand docking, we integrated the ClusPro LigTBM template‐based approach with a machine learning‐based confidence model for rescoring. The method preserves conserved interaction fragments derived from homologous complexes, followed by local resampling using physics‐based sampling and a diffusion model. Our template‐based strategy achieved a mean lDDT‐PLI of 0.69 across 233 targets, which was highly competitive. These results demonstrate that combining physics‐based modeling with AI‐driven refinement can significantly enhance the accuracy of both protein–protein and protein–ligand structure predictions.

Ashizawa, Ryota [Department of Applied Mathematics↗

Statistics of base polytopes in F-theory

We propose a new statistical ensemble of toric bases for elliptic Calabi-Yaus used in F-theory models, by focusing on only the convex hull of the base, i.e., the base polytope. This physically motivated coarse-graining greatly simplifies the combinatorial complexity of the part of the 4d F-theory landscape with toric bases. We develop a Monte Carlo approach that randomly samples the base polytopes within fixed boxes, with proper statistical weights. We first apply the algorithm to the set of 2d base polytopes, generating an enlarged set of toric 2d bases that include certain types of codimension-two (4,6) points, and we validate our approach against exact numbers. We then explore the set of 3d base polytopes which fit in a set of “maximal” 3d boxes, and estimate the total number of inequivalent 3d base polytopes to be 10 85 –10 90 . We provide statistical data such as the distribution of non-Higgsable gauge groups on these bases. Amusingly, a similar method can also be applied to generate reflexive polytopes in various dimensions. In both the reflexive and base polytope cases, the number of relevant polytopes obeys a Gaussian distribution as a function of the number of vertices, which can be understood in terms of other results on random polytopes in the math literature.

Differential and algebraic geometry↗