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At least 235 records · Page 13

Quality Control of Meteorological Observations

For the first time, a problem of the meteorological observation quality control (QC) was formulated by L.S. Gandin at the Main Geophysical Observatory in the 70's. Later in 1988 L.S. Gandin began adapting his ideas in complex quality control (CQC) to the operational environment at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The CQC was first applied by L.S.Gandin and his colleagues to detection and correction of errors in rawinsonde heights and temperatures using a complex of hydrostatic residuals.Later, a full complex of residuals, vertical and horizontal optimal interpolations and baseline checks were added for the checking and correction of a wide range of meteorological variables. some other of Gandin's ideas were applied and substantially developed at other meteorological centers. A new statistical QC was recently implemented in the Goddard Data Assimilation System. The central component of any quality control is a buddy check which is a test of individual suspect observations against available nearby non-suspect observations. A novel feature of this test is that the error variances which are used for QC decision are re-estimated on-line. As a result, the allowed tolerances for suspect observations can depend on local atmospheric conditions. The system is then better able to accept extreme values observed in deep cyclones, jet streams and so on. The basic statements of this adaptive buddy check are described. Some results of the on-line QC including moisture QC are presented.

Collins, William↗

Validation of EOS Aqua AMSR Sea Ice Products for East Antarctica

This paper presents results from AMSR-E validation activities during a collaborative international cruise onboard the RV Aurora Australis to the East Antarctic sea ice zone (64-65 deg.S, 110-120 deg.E) in the early Austral spring of 2003. The validation strategy entailed an IS-day survey of the statistical characteristics of sea ice and snowcover over a Lagrangian grid 100 x 50 km in size (demarcated by 9 drifting ice beacons) i.e. at a scale representative of Ah4SR pixels. Ice conditions ranged h m consolidated first-year ice to a large polynya offshore from Casey Base. Data sets collected include: snow depth and snow-ice interface temperatures on 24 (?) randomly-selected floes in grid cells within a 10 x 50 km area (using helicopters); detailed snow and ice measurements at 13 dedicated ice stations, one of which lasted for 4 days; time-series measurements of snow temperature and thickness at selected sites; 8 aerial photography and thermal-IR radiometer flights; other satellite products (SAR, AVHRR, MODIS, MISR, ASTER and Envisat MERIS); ice drift data; and ancillary meteorological (ship-based, meteorological buoys, twice-daily radiosondes). These data are applied to a validation of standard AMSR-E ice concentration, snowcover thickness and ice-temperature products. In addition, a validation is carried out of ice-surface skin temperature products h m the NOAA AVHRR and EOS MODIS datasets.

Massom, Rob↗

A New Regional Climate Model for POLAR‐CORDEX: Evaluation of a 30‐Year Hindcast with COSMO‐CLM^2 Over Antarctica

Continent‐wide climate information over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is important to obtain accurate information of present climate and reduce uncertainties of the ice sheet mass balance response and resulting global sea level rise to future climate change. In this study, the COSMO‐CLM^2 Regional Climate Model is applied over the AIS and adapted for the specific meteorological and climatological conditions of the region. A 30‐year hindcast was performed and evaluated against observational records consisting of long‐term ground‐based meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, radiosoundings, satellite records, stake measurements and ice cores. Reasonable agreement regarding the surface and upper‐air climate is achieved by the COSMO‐CLM^2 model, comparable to the performance of other state‐of‐the‐art climate models over the AIS. Meteorological variability of the surface climate is adequately simulated, and biases in the radiation and surface mass balance are small. The presented model therefore contributes as a new member to the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment project over the AIS (POLAR‐CORDEX) and the CORDEX‐CORE initiative.

Antarctica↗

Astronomy and the limits of vision

Celestial visibility is the study of the limits of observability of objects in the sky, with application to deducing the truth about historical events or to the derivation of astronomical information of modern utility. This study is based on what is seen by ordinary humans, either in their everyday lives or at times of historical events. The results of such studies have more relevance to non-scientists than does any other area of astronomy. Celestial visibility is a young discipline in the sense that the number of interesting applications with simple solutions outnumber the solved problems; it is a broad interdisciplinary field that involves work with astronomy, meteorology, optics, physics, physiology, history, and archeology. Each of these disciplines contribute specialized mathematical formulations which quantify the many processes that affect light as it leaves a source, traverses the atmosphere, and is detected by the human eye. These formulas can then be combined as appropriate to create mathematical models for the visibility of the source under the conditions of interest. These model results can then be applied a wide variety of problems arising in history, astronomy, archeology, meteorological optics, and archeoastronomy. This review also presents a dozen suggestions for observing projects, many of which can be directly taken for individual study, for classroom projects, or for professional research.

Schaefer, Bradley E.↗

A Meteorological Model's Dependence on Radiation Update Frequency

Numerical weather models are used to simulate circulations in the atmosphere including clouds and precipitation by applying a set of mathematical equations over a three-dimensional grid. The grid is composed of discrete points at which the meteorological variables are defined. As computing power continues to rise these models are being used at finer grid spacing, but they must still cover a wide range of scales. Some of the physics that must be accounted for in the model cannot be explicitly resolved, and their effects, therefore, must be estimated or "parameterized". Some of these parameterizations are computationally expensive. To alleviate the problem, they are not always updated at the time resolution of the model with the assumption being that the impact will be small. In this study, a coupled land-atmosphere model is used to assess the impact of less frequent updates of the computationally expensive radiation physics for a case on June 6, 2002, that occurred during a field experiment over the central plains known as International H20 Project (IHOP). The model was tested using both the original conditions, which were dry, and with modified conditions wherein moisture was added to the lower part of the atmosphere to produce clouds and precipitation (i.e., a wet case). For each of the conditions (i.e., dry and wet), four set of experiments were conducted wherein the model was run for a period of 24 hours and the radiation fields (including both incoming solar and outgoing longwave) were updated every 1, 3, 10, and 100 time steps. Statistical tests indicated that average quantities of surface variables for both the dry and wet cases were the same for the various update frequencies. However, spatially the results could be quite different especially in the wet case after it began to rain. The near-surface wind field was found to be different most of the time even for the dry case. In the wet case, rain intensities and average vertical profiles of heating associated with cloudy areas were found to differ for the various radiation update frequencies. The latter implies that the mean state of the model could be different as a result of not updating the radiation fields every time step and has important implications for longer term climate studies

Eastman, Joseph L.↗

River Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Using Machine Learning Models and Wireless Sensor Measurements

Simultaneous flooding&heat and droughts&heat events can potentially destabilize hydro-meteorological conditions to deteriorate the water quality of Neches River. Machine learning (ML) models utilizing wireless sensor measurements have been applied to predict water quality and optimize various water management strategies. This study aims to develop ML models to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) prediction under various hydro-meteorological conditions and enhance water management decision-making. Wireless sensor measurements of DO, water temperature, sample depth, conductivity, turbidity, and pH, along with discharge from the United States Geological Survey stations, are collected for model inputs at the Pine Island Bayou C749 station (PIB-C749) and Neches River Saltwater Barrier (SWB). Multilayer perceptron neural networks, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) with and without attention mechanism (AT) are tested to determine the best model, which is applied the rolling forecast method to predict 14-day DO. Traditional and recurrent transfer learning (TL and RTL) methods are adopted to overcome insufficient data at the SWB. The input feature importance analysis using the integrated gradients (IG) algorithm is applied to determine dominant inputs. The results show LSTM-based models are capable handling long sequential data. AT-BiLSTM and RTL-LSTM demonstrate the best performance at the PIB-C749 (RMSE=0.054) and the SWB (RMSE=0.028), respectively. TL and RTL methods significantly improve model performance at the SWB. DO, temperature, and pH show higher importance, consistent with hydrodynamics and water chemistry. Both best models are applied to predict 14-day DO and demonstrate reasonable performance for decision-making. Hydro-meteorological conditions of 2017 flood and 2012 drought events are simulated and reveal that possible hypoxia occurs after flooding due to increasing temperature and turbidity, and DO concentration decreases significantly under heat and drought conditions. In conclusion, LSTM-based models utilizing wireless sensor data can be a timely and effective approach to make appropriate decisions on water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Current research on aviation weather (bibliography)

This bibliography of 326 readily usable references of basic and applied research programs related to the various areas of aviation meteorology was assembled. A literature search was conducted which surveyed the major abstract publications such as the International Aerospace Abstracts, the Meteorological and Geoastrophysical Abstracts, and the Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports. In addition, NASA and DOT computer literature searches were run; and NASA, NOAA, and FAA research project managers were requested to provide writeups on their ongoing research.

Durham, D. E.↗

The computation of generalized cross-validation functions through householder tridiagonalization with applications to the fitting of interaction spline models

An efficient algorithm for computing the generalized cross-validation function for the general cross-validated regularization/smoothing problem is provided. This algorithm is appropriate for problems where no natural structure is available, and the regularization/smoothing problem is solved (exactly) in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. It is particularly appropriate for certain multivariate smoothing problems with irregularly spaced data, and certain remote sensing problems, such as those that occur in meteorology, where the sensors are arranged irregularly. The algorithm is applied to the fitting of interaction spline models with irregularly spaced data and two smoothing parameters; favorable timing results are presented. The algorithm may be extended to the computation of certain generalized maximum likelihood (GML) functions. Application of the GML algorithm to a problem in numerical weather forecasting, and to a broad class of hypothesis testing problems, is noted.

Gu, Chong↗

Passive microwave retrievals of rainfall and rain system structure

Consideration is given to the development of algorithms for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission to retrieve rain and rain vertical structure from passive microwave radiometry. The self-consistency approach for surface rain rate retrieval of Kummerow et al. (1989) is applied to microwave brightness temperature data from the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (Dodge et al., 1986). Because the algorithm simultaneously retrieves rainfall rate and rain system structure, it is suggested that the algorithm can be used to overcome the problem of the dependence of brightness temperatures on the vertical profile of hydrometeors.

Kummerow, Christian↗

Modeling the Absorbing Aerosol Index

We propose a scheme to model the absorbing aerosol index and improve the biomass carbon inventories by optimizing the difference between TOMS aerosol index (AI) and modeled AI with an inverse model. Two absorbing aerosol types are considered, including biomass carbon and mineral dust. A priori biomass carbon source was generated by Liousse et al [1996]. Mineral dust emission is parameterized according to surface wind and soil moisture using the method developed by Ginoux [2000]. In this initial study, the coupled CCM1 and GRANTOUR model was used to determine the aerosol spatial and temporal distribution. With modeled aerosol concentrations and optical properties, we calculate the radiance at the top of the atmosphere at 340 nm and 380 nm with a radiative transfer model. The contrast of radiance at these two wavelengths will be used to calculate AI. Then we compare the modeled AI with TOMS AI. This paper reports our initial modeling for AI and its comparison with TOMS Nimbus 7 AI. For our follow-on project we will model the global AI with aerosol spatial and temporal distribution recomputed from the IMPACT model and DAO GEOS-1 meteorology fields. Then we will build an inverse model, which applies a Bayesian inverse technique to optimize the agreement of between model and observational data. The inverse model will tune the biomass burning source strength to reduce the difference between modelled AI and TOMS AI. Further simulations with a posteriori biomass carbon sources from the inverse model will be carried out. Results will be compared to available observations such as surface concentration and aerosol optical depth.

Penner, Joyce↗

Isolating the Surface Type Influence on Arctic Cloud Properties

In response to anthropogenic climate change, substantial declines in sea ice have been observed. An urgent question is whether and how clouds respond to the changing Arctic surface. Due to the important radiative influence of clouds, the response of clouds to sea ice cover change constitutes a potentially important climate feedback within the Arctic. The sign of this feedback is strongly influenced by the seasonality of the cloud response to sea ice loss. Given the importance of this phenomenon, previous research focused on using observations of inter-annual variability to quantify the cloud-sea ice relationship. However, the reliance on inter-annual variability to assess the covariance between clouds and sea ice make it challenging to control for the influence of large-scale meteorology on the clouds. We have devised an approach that applies an in situ, airborne observational strategy to quantify the influence of surface type on Arctic clouds to satellite data. Our event-based method composites cloud property differences for ocean, marginal ice zone, and sea ice surface types for >5000 MIZ crossing events. We find that cloud properties in non-summer months below ~1.5 km are influenced by surface type such that greater cloud fraction and water content are found over ocean relative to sea ice regions. Results are statistically significantly at the 95% confidence level. During summer, the surface type does not influence the cloud properties. The primary cause of the surface type dependent cloud property differences is the thermodynamic profiles differences that occur between the two surface types: namely, ocean footprints are warmer, moister, have more positive surface turbulent fluxes and are less stable than their sea ice counterparts. We find that the differences in thermodynamic profiles by surface type that correspond to the cloud property differences also explains a significant portion of the variability across events. Our analysis provides evidence that the influence of surface type on cloud properties fundamentally occurs due to the inherent surface temperature differences between the surface types. Significant surface type influences on cloud properties are only found in the presence of surface temperature differences between the surface types and only non-summer months meet this criterion. A conceptual model of this process is as follows, fundamental properties of the ocean and sea ice surface types (e.g., surface albedo, heat capacity/thermal inertia, surface roughness, and thermal conductance) lead to systematic differences in the surface temperature by surface type. In response to this surface temperature difference, atmosphere boundary layer processes (including turbulent mixing and radiation) communicate the surface temperature differences to the lower atmosphere driving the greater stability over sea ice than ocean. These differences in the background thermodynamic state profiles between the surface types yield atmospheric conditions that are more conducive to cloud development over ocean than sea ice. The details of these boundary layer processes are sensitive to the surface type but may not be fundamental to the resulting thermodynamic structure and cloud differences. Thus, our results indicate that to accurately model that cloud response to sea ice loss in climate models the surface type properties that yield the systematic differences in ocean and sea ice temperature (e.g., surface albedo, surface turbulent fluxes parameters, and thermal conductance) must be accurately represented.

Arctic radiation budget↗

Aerosol Optical Properties Derived from the DRAGON-NE Asia Campaign, and Implications for a Single-Channel Algorithm to Retrieve Aerosol Optical Depth in Spring from Meteorological Imager (MI) On-Board the Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS)

An aerosol model optimized for northeast Asia is updated with the inversion data from the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON)-northeast (NE) Asia campaign which was conducted during spring from March to May 2012. This updated aerosol model was then applied to a single visible channel algorithm to retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD) from a Meteorological Imager (MI) on-board the geostationary meteorological satellite, Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS). This model plays an important role in retrieving accurate AOD from a single visible channel measurement. For the single-channel retrieval, sensitivity tests showed that perturbations by 4 % (0.926 +/- 0.04) in the assumed single scattering albedo (SSA) can result in the retrieval error in AOD by over 20 %. Since the measured reflectance at the top of the atmosphere depends on both AOD and SSA, the overestimation of assumed SSA in the aerosol model leads to an underestimation of AOD. Based on the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) inversion data sets obtained over East Asia before 2011, seasonally analyzed aerosol optical properties (AOPs) were categorized by SSAs at 675 nm of 0.92 +/- 0.035 for spring (March, April, and May). After the DRAGON-NE Asia campaign in 2012, the SSA during spring showed a slight increase to 0.93 +/- 0.035. In terms of the volume size distribution, the mode radius of coarse particles was increased from 2.08 +/- 0.40 to 2.14 +/- 0.40. While the original aerosol model consists of volume size distribution and refractive indices obtained before 2011, the new model is constructed by using a total data set after the DRAGON-NE Asia campaign. The large volume of data in high spatial resolution from this intensive campaign can be used to improve the representative aerosol model for East Asia. Accordingly, the new AOD data sets retrieved from a single-channel algorithm, which uses a precalculated look-up table (LUT) with the new aerosol model, show an improved correlation with the measured AOD during the DRAGON-NE Asia campaign. The correlation between the new AOD and AERONET value shows a regression slope of 1.00, while the comparison of the original AOD data retrieved using the original aerosol model shows a slope of 1.08. The change of y-offset is not significant, and the correlation coefficients for the comparisons of the original and new AOD are 0.87 and 0.85, respectively. The tendency of the original aerosol model to overestimate the retrieved AOD is significantly improved by using the SSA values in addition to size distribution and refractive index obtained using the new model.

Kim, M.↗

An Investigation of the Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOx Production using DC3 Observations and the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM)

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed‐phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co‐evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three‐dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TM) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual‐Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell mergers and possible dynamical, microphysical and electrical interaction of individual cells when testing various hypotheses.

Carey, Lawrence↗

An Investigation of the Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOX Production using DC3 Observations and the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM)

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed‐phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co‐evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three‐dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual‐Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell mergers and possible dynamical, microphysical and electrical interaction of individual cells when testing various hypotheses.

Carey, Lawrence↗

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Lightning Rate, Extent and NOX Production

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TM) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell mergers and possible dynamical, microphysical and electrical interaction of individual cells when testing various hypotheses.

Carey, Lawrence↗

Develop Wake Mitigation Strategy (CRADA CRD-17-00693 Final Report)

Wind turbines in a wind farm typically operate individually to maximize their own performance and do not take into account information from nearby turbines. In an autonomous wind farm, enabling cooperation to achieve farm-level objectives, turbines will need to use information from nearby turbines to optimize performance, ensure resiliency when other sensors fail, and adapt to changing local conditions. A key element of achieving an autonomous wind farm is to develop algorithms that provide necessary information to ensure reliable, robust, and efficient operation of wind turbines in a wind plant using local sensor information that is already being collected, such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data, local meteorological stations, and nearby radars/sodars/lidars. In this work consensus control is applied in a hybrid analysis to data from an existing wind farm to demonstrate the benefit of consensus control.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Mean, tidal, and fluctuating winds in the middle atmosphere and lower thermosphere observed during MAP/WINE in Northern Scandinavia

During the MAP/WINE campaign in winter 1983 to 1984 several instrumental techniques, such as meteorological rockets, sounding rockets, MST radar and incoherent scatter radar, were applied to measure wind velocities in the middle atmosphere. Profiles of mean, tidal and fluctuating wind velocities were obtained up to 90 to 100 km altitude. These are compared with profiles from models, measurements at other locations and at other times as well as satellite derived data. The results are discussed in terms of ageostropic winds, planetary waves, tidal modes and the possibility of a saturated gravity wave spectrum in the mesosphere.

Roettger, J.↗

Application of a planetary wave breaking parameterization to stratospheric circulation statistics

The planetary wave parameterization scheme developed recently by Garcia is applied to statospheric circulation statistics derived from 12 years of National Meteorological Center operational stratospheric analyses. From the data a planetary wave breaking criterion (based on the ratio of the eddy to zonal mean meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients), a wave damping rate, and a meridional diffusion coefficient are calculated. The equatorward flank of the polar night jet during winter is identified as a wave breaking region from the observed PV gradients; the region moves poleward with season, covering all high latitudes in spring. Derived damping rates maximize in the subtropical upper stratosphere (the 'surf zone'), with damping time scales of 3-4 days. Maximum diffusion coefficients follow the spatial patterns of the wave breaking criterion, with magnitudes comparable to prior published estimates. Overall, the observed results agree well with the parameterized calculations of Garcia.

Randel, William J.↗