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At least 235 records · Page 13

Covariability of Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande from Interannual to Interdecadal Timescales

Study region: The Upper Rio Grande (URG) flows from its headwaters in Colorado, U.S., and provides an important source of water to millions of people in the U.S. states of Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and also Mexico. Study focus: We reassess the explanatory power of the relationship of sea surface temperatures (SST) on URG streamflow variability on interannual to interdecadal timescales. We find a significant amount of the variance of spring-summer URG streamflow cannot be fully explained by SST. New hydrological insights: We find that the interdecadal teleconnection between SST and streamflow is more clear than on interannual timescales. The highest ranked years tend to be clustered during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). During the periods of decadal high flow (1900-1920, and 1979-1995), Pacific SST resembles a positive PDO pattern and the Atlantic a negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) pattern; an interbasin pattern shown in prior studies to be conducive to high precipitation and streamflow. To account for the part of streamflow variance not explained by SST, we analyze atmospheric Reanalysis data for the months preceding the highest spring-summer streamflow events. A variety of atmospheric configurations are found to precede the highest flow years through anomalous moisture convergence. This lack of consistency suggests that, on interannual timescales, weather and not climate can dominate the generation of high streamflow events.

AMO↗

Results of Speciation Determination Measurements of Insulating Sulfur Hexafluoride Gas

Under the direction of the NNSA NA-231 Mo-99 Program, SRNL has provided technical assistance to U.S. companies under cooperative agreements. One such area of technical assistance has been for the recommendation for contamination management methods in the eventuality that tritium contaminates the insulating gas of a high-voltage ion source used in the accelerator-based process developed by SHINE Medical Technologies to produce Mo-99. The SHINE accelerator process uses tritium as the target of a deuterium ion beam, where the ion beam is produced within a high-voltage ion source insulated with sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ), and is separated from the tritium target by an extensive pump train. Normal operating conditions preclude the conditions necessary for contamination of the insulating gas, however certain atypical conditions could result in a tritium contamination event. Accelerator based processes for medical isotope production represent an anomalous tritium contamination challenge due to the presence of SF 6 . SF 6 decomposes through normal use as an insulator gas, and the exact speciation of the decomposition byproducts depends on a variety of factors. This creates a scenario where the anticipation of species present in the insulating gas mixture is difficult. In turn, the fate of tritium within such a chemical system is unclear. This document discusses the results of measurements made in-situ of the SF 6 insulating gas in use within a SHINE Medical Technology’s high-voltage ion source. This was done in an effort to determine the chemical speciation of the gas, allowing for the recommendation of management strategies in the event that tritium contaminates the insulating gas. The results of the measurements reported in this work suggest that tritium contamination in the insulating gas may result in two chemical forms of tritium in the system, tritiated water and molecular tritium. These two forms of tritium would be captured by two methods. Tritiated water may be captured and removed from the SF 6 by an adsorbent canister already present within the pressure vessel that houses the insulating gas while in use. It may also be separated from the SF 6 during routine purification of the SF 6 , which is performed by SHINE personnel routinely. The purification cart will perform all non-embedded systems cleanup necessary to remediate tritiated species in the system. The purification cart passes the insulating gas through several filters, followed by the liquefication of the SF 6 . The filters will separate tritiated water from the SF 6 at this stage. It is expected that molecular tritium will accumulate in the gas-phase during the liquification step, which is separated and stored. Tritium may be recovered from this mixture through more conventional hydrogen purification methods such as a palladium diffuser.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Differential Measurement of Circumstellar Extinction for AA Tau’s 2011 Dimming Event

AA Tau is a classical T Tauri star with a highly inclined, warped circumstellar disk. For decades, AA Tau exhibited photometric and spectroscopic variabilities that were successfully modeled as occultations of the primary star by circumstellar material. In 2011, AA Tau entered an extended faint state, presumably due to enhanced levels of circumstellar dust. We use two sets of contemporaneous optical–near-IR (NIR) spectra of AA Tau, obtained in 2008 and 2014 December, to directly measure the wavelength-dependent extinction associated with the dust enhancement driving AA Tau’s 2011 optical fade. Taken alone, AA Tau’s apparent optical–NIR increased extinction curve cannot be fit well with standard extinction laws. At optical wavelengths, AA Tau’s dimming event is consistent with predictions of common extinction models for an increase of A {sub V} = 2, but no such model reproduces AA Tau’s color–color excess at NIR wavelengths. We show that veiling emission accounts for the apparent anomalous NIR extinction: after including this veiling flux, AA Tau’s dimming event is consistent with a standard A {sub V} = 2 extinction law across the full optical–NIR range. We also report an increase in AA Tau’s mid-IR flux since its 2011 fade and suggest that an increase in the height of AA Tau’s inner disk is the most likely explanation for both the IR brightening and the additional extinction along the line of sight. In addition to informing our understanding of AA Tau, this analysis demonstrates that caution should be exercised when inferring extinction (and stellar parameters) from the NIR color–color excess of young stars with measurable NIR veiling fluxes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Detection and Association of Operational Events using DAS and Seismometers (FY 2025 Mid-Year Report)

This mid-year report summarizes ongoing work to identify anomalous vibration signals indicative of potential containment breaches. This work includes compiling continuous seismic datasets and testing and refining underground detection and geolocation techniques. In the first two quarters of FY25, we have completed two project work plan tasks: (1) creating a database of continuous waveforms and ground truth event data from multiple modalities and (2) refining and implementing a detection and association algorithm to create a catalog of anomalous underground activities. This report contains a summary of the seismic database including the continuous seismic data collected by a dense array of surface seismic stations above Pleasant Gap Mine, and continuous seismic data collected using subsurface distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) in the subsurface at Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) and the ground truth information gathered from both sites. This report also includes results from refining and applying a dynamic power spectral density detector to both continuous seismic datasets. Finally, the report provides an initial catalog of subsurface operational events from both sensing modalities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Inclusive Search for Anomalous Single-Photon Production in MicroBooNE

The MicroBooNE experiment is an 85-ton active volume liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) neutrino detector situated in the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beam. One of the main goals for MicroBooNE is to investigate the “low energy excess” (LEE) of electromagnetic events observed by the MiniBooNE experiment by leveraging the unique capabilities of the LArTPC technology to distinguish photons from electron electromagnetic showers. In this poster, we present an inclusive search for anomalous production of single-photon events from neutrino interactions in the MicroBooNE experiment, motivated by the MiniBooNE LEE. The analysis uses the Wire-Cell reconstruction framework to select a sample of inclusive single-photon final-state interactions and leverages simultaneous measurements of sidebands to constrain signal and background predictions and reduce uncertainties. We perform a blind analysis using a dataset collected from February 2016 to July 2018 from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at Fermilab. In the full signal region, we observe agreement between the data and the prediction, with a goodness-of-fit p-value of 0.11. We then isolate a sub-sample of these events containing no visible protons, and observe 93 $/pm$ 22(stat.) $\pm$ 35(syst.) data events above prediction, corresponding to just above 2$\sigma$ local significance, concentrated at shower energies below 600 MeV.

Yandel, Erin [Los Alamos] (ORCID:0000000277123709)↗

FY 2025 End of Year Report: Seismic Monitoring of Underground Vibration Sources using Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) and Seismometers

This end-of-year report summarizes progress on using seismic monitoring to detect, associate, and locate anomalous vibration signals that may indicate potential containment breaches. The work focused on four key tasks: 1. Developing a database of continuous waveforms and ground-truth event data from multiple sensing modalities. 2. Refining and implementing detection and association algorithms to generate a catalog of anomalous underground activities. 3. Testing and improving distributed acoustic sensing amplitude-based geolocation methods to build an event location catalog. 4. Testing and refining seismic array polarization-based geolocation methods to build an event location catalog. This report provides a brief recap of results from the FY25 midyear report (Tasks 1 and 2) and presents new findings from geolocation methods (Tasks 3 and 4).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Carbon isotopic studies of organic matter in Precambrian rocks.

A survey has been undertaken of the carbon composition of the total organic fraction of a suite of Precambrian sediments to detect isotopic trends possibly correlative with early evolutionary events. Early Precambrian cherts of the Fig Tree and upper and middle Onverwacht groups of South Africa were examined for this purpose. Reduced carbon in these cherts was found to be isotopically similar to photosynthetically produced organic matter of younger geological age. Reduced carbon in lower Onverwacht cherts was found to be anomalously heavy; it is suggested that this discontinuity may reflect a major event in biological evolution.

Oehler, D. Z.↗

Adaptive Anomaly Detection for Dynamic Clinical Event Sequences

Over the past decade, health information technology (IT) has enabled the amount of digital information stored in electronic health records (EHRs) to expand greatly. However, according to some studies, hazards in health IT can lead to changes in clinical decisions, care processes, and care outcomes, as well as other issues. Thus, the effects of health IT hazards on patient safety have been at the forefront of recent patient safety research. Nonetheless, hazard detection in health IT remains a challenge. In this paper, the authors assume that safety-related issues in health IT would exhibit anomalous characteristics in EHR data. Although all hazards will exhibit some anomalous characteristics, not all anomalies can be regarded as hazards. The authors hypothesize that errors in health IT could lead to interruptions in the sequence of clinical actions. To this end, the problem of detecting anomalous sequences in big EHR data is considered. This paper focuses on dynamic event sequences, which are a series of clinical actions in motion. The authors propose an adaptive anomaly detection approach that uses higher-order network representation to detect anomalous sequences. Furthermore, the authors propose a contiguous subsequence anomaly detection approach that identifies abnormal subsequences in the detected anomalous sequences. The proposed approaches are tested by using synthetic and real-world EHR data. The proposed methods outperform existing state of the art anomaly detection techniques. To reduce the computational complexity associated with the operational implementation of the proposed approaches, the Apache Spark environment was leveraged, and a much shorter run time together with improved performance were achieved, especially for data with more than 60,000 sequences.

Niu, Haoran↗

Anticipated Electrical Environment at Phobos: Nominal and Solar Storm Conditions

A passing coronal mass ejection (CME) will manifest a different response at an airless body compared to a magnetized planet. Specifically,because the regolith-rich surfaces of airless bodies are directly exposed to the variations in the plasma flow, the surfaces are found to undergo anomalous surface charging during the passing of CME fast plasma events. In this study, we model the surface charging expected at Phobos for nominal solar wind conditions and also those associated with disturbed solar wind conditions during the passage of a CME similar to that observed by MAVEN at Mars in early March 2015. We use an ambipolar diffusion model to examine the development of the trailing wake void in the plasma flow behind Phobos and the formation of mini-wakes within obstruction regions like Stickney Crater. We also consider the roving of an astronaut in Stickney Crater for Phobos positioned near 10 hours Local Time relative to Mars. We examine the plasma dissipation of the collected astronaut charge from contact electrification with the regolith.

Phobos; Surface chargin↗

Study the Vertical Structure and Transportation of the Extreme African Dust Storms using MERRA-2 Data

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 (MERRA-2) provides the first long-term global reanalysis to assimilate space-based observations of aerosols and represents their interactions with other physical processes in the climate system. In this study, we have examined the variations of atmospheric aerosols for the last 20 years since 2002 using the sub-daily MERRA-2 data and found seven extreme African dust storms that were transported westward across the Atlantic Ocean from the Sahara, crossing 70o-80oW. In particular, the well-known ‘Godzilla’ dust storm occurred in June 2020, and its dust cloud, with the highest-on-record aerosol optical depths, was transported toward the Americas. This storm greatly degraded air quality over large areas of the Caribbean Basin and the United States. The air quality index reached unhealthy levels for sensitive groups in more than ten U.S. states. In our study, the vertical structure and transport characteristics of the dust layers during this extreme dust event are investigated. The geopotential height and temperature were found anomalously low (around 600 hPa) over the Atlantic Ocean off northwest Africa before the June 2020 dust storm. This anomalous circulation pattern was persistent for more than 12 days starting from around May 30, breaking the regular easterly waves that transport dust from the Sahara Desert to the west. To verify the data quality, daily MERRA-2 PM2.5 data were calculated and compared with PM2.5 observations from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) at several selected ground stations in Florida. We provide this case study to illustrate how to effectively use various MERRA-2 data services at Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) where MERRA-2 data are archived, hoping to help data users in exploring their own topics of interest using data services at GES DISC.

data management, reanalysis↗

Vertical and Horizontal Wind Structure Prior to and During the 1997/1998 ENSO Event

Analyses of ECMWF and satellite wind products are used to investigate low frequency fluctuations in the wind fields immediately preceding and during the 1997/1998 ENSO event. An extended EOF analysis of the horizontal and vertical wind structure that allows for the study of propagating features indicates that the dominant mode of variability established in the lower levels of the atmosphere is a convergence in the central tropical Pacific. At mid-levels, the westerlies increase with time over most of the equatorial Pacific, and there are closed cyclonic features on either side of the equator. At upper levels, the flow tends to become divergent across the equatorial Pacific, and there is a strong flow from the northwest Pacific across Indonesia that then turns to the west along the equator in the Indian Ocean. The addition of satellite data for improved surface wind estimates reveal that the Indian Ocean winds were anomalously strong during the winter preceding the initiation of the ENSO event. An analysis of the momentum convergence flux at the surface indicates a very strong anomaly 9 months prior to the ENSO event that begins in the western Indian Ocean and propagates to the east, arriving over the Pacific warm pool area coincident with the beginning of the El Nino. Changes in the near surface thermal and water vapor structure over the Indian Ocean during this period will also be discussed.

Adamec, David↗

Assessing Carbon Properties in Coastal Waters with a New Observing System Testbed

Large rainfall events over land can lead to a substantial flux of carbon and nutrients to estuaries and the coastal ocean. In the mid-Atlantic on the east coast of North America (35° - 42° N), these events often happen due to tropical storm activity as well as less predictable anomalously large midlatitude storms or abrupt spring snow melt runoff. Storms can directly impact the coastal carbon cycle via export of carbon from land to sea, while also stimulating phytoplankton production due to the influx of nutrients to the coastal ocean. To assess the impact of high precipitation and river flow events on the coastal carbon cycle, we have integrated multiple observing platforms in an analytical framework to dynamically observe carbon-related properties. The new observing system testbed (NOS-T) allows for an estimate of phytoplankton and organic carbon stocks in the surface ocean, with a goal of providing near real time analytical capability. A case study of high river discharge in the mid-Atlantic in the summer and fall of 2018 and 2021 were used to examine how riverine carbon manifests along the land-estuary-ocean continuum particularly in Chesapeake Bay. Chesapeake Bay was chosen as the study site because of long term monitoring by the Chesapeake Bay Program and a robust and well-developed regional biogeochemical modeling system, the Chesapeake Bay Environmental Forecast System (CBEFS), that is publicly available. There is also new capability in Chesapeake Bay to combine hyperspectral radiometric data from the Aerosol Robotic Network site that is online in 2022 with in-water observations of optical properties. Precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement IMERG data set was used to establish triggering criteria for storm carbon flux observation. USGS and in-water carbon data were used to establish statistical models to estimate the mass flux of organic carbon into Chesapeake Bay using measured river discharge. The year 2018 was examined as there was record rainfall and near record river flow in the late summer. The CBEFS modeling was compared with in-water estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to assess the model’s ability to capture storm fluxes of carbon to the ecosystem. Multiple satellite platforms were also used to assess how remote sensing using passive Earth orbiting sensors can be used to observe carbon in this complex coastal region. A set of recommendations have been established to improve sensing capability to measure aquatic carbon during storm events. A unique challenge in these dynamic inland waters is how rapidly carbon fluxes can evolve in space and time, with many sources contributing to the water leaving reflectance that satellites can observe. To improve our ability to quantify carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time, a suite of satellite sensors and high-resolution modeling capability is needed, all supplemented by in situ monitoring. Future inclusion of in-water observations that would be deployed when the system reaches triggering criteria, as well as taskable orbital instruments, will improve estimates of ocean carbon properties and provide the ability to calculate major carbon stocks and fluxes in near real time following episodic storm events.

land-ocean continuum↗

Contributions of biofilm-induced flow heterogeneities to solute retention and anomalous transport features in porous media

We report that microbial biofilms are ubiquitous within porous media and the dynamics of their growth influence surface and subsurface flow patterns which impacts the physical properties of porous media and large-scale transport of solutes. Here, a two-dimensional pore-scale numerical model was used to evaluate the impact of biofilm-induced flow heterogeneities on conservative transport. Our study integrates experimental biofilm images of Paenibacillus 300A strain in a microfluidic device packed with cylindrical grains in a hexagonal distribution, with mathematical modeling. Biofilm is represented as a synthetic porous structure with locally varying physical properties that honors the impact of biofilm on the porous medium. We find that biofilm plays a major role in shaping the observed conservative transport dynamics by enhancing anomalous characteristics. More specifically, when biofilm is present, the pore structure in our geometry becomes more spatially correlated. We observe intermittent behavior in the Lagrangian velocities that switches between fast transport periods and long trapping events. Our results suggest that intermittency enhances solute spreading in breakthrough curves which exhibit extreme anomalous slope at intermediate times and very marked late solute arrival due to solute retention. The efficiency of solute retention by the biofilm is controlled by a transport regime which can extend the tailing in the concentration breakthrough curves. These results indicate that solute retention by the biofilm exerts a strong control on conservative solute transport at pore-scale, a role that to date has not received enough attention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Anomalous Low State of LMC X-3

Archival RXTE ASM and PCA observations of the black hole binary LMC X-3 reveal a dramatic and extended low state lasting from December 8, 2003 until March 18, 2004, unprecedented both in its Low luminosity (Lx(2-10keV)=4.2x 1035 ergs s-1, approximately 4 times fainter than ever before seen from LMC X-3 in its low/hard state, and representing 0.15% of its X-ray luminosity during the high/soft state); and Long duration (approximately equal to 100 days, as compared with 5-20 days for 'normal' low/hard state excursions). During this anomalous low state no significant variability is observed on timescales of days-weeks, and the spectrum is well described by a simple power law with index 1.7 plus or minus 0.2. We examine the variability characteristics of LMC X-3 before and after this event using conventional and topological methods, and show that with the exception of the anomalous low state itself the long-term behavior of the source in topological phase space can be completely described in terms of a well-understood nonlinear dynamics system known as the Duffing oscillator, implying that the accretion disk in LMC X-3 is a driven, dissipative system with two solutions competing for control of its time evolution. This work shows that dynamical information and constraints revealed by topological analysis methods can provide a valuable addition to traditional studies of accretion disk behavior.

Smale, A. P.↗

Mechanism for Surface Warming in the Equatorial Pacific during 1994-95

Mechanisms controlling the variation in sea surface temperature warm event in the equatorial Pacific were investigated through ocean model simulations. In addition, the mechanisms of the climatological SST cycle were investigated. The dominant mechanisms governing the seasonal cycle of SST vary significantly across the basin. In the western Pacific the annual cycle of SST is primarily in response to external heat flux. In the central basin the magnitude of zonal advection is comparable to that of the external heat flux. In the eastern basin the role of zonal advection is reduced and the vertical mixing is more important. In the easternmost equatorial Pacific the vertical entrainment contribution is as large as that of vertical diffusion. The model estimate of the vertical mixing contribution to the mixed layer heat budget compared well with estimates obtained by analysis of observations using the same diagnostic vertical mixing scheme. During 1994- 1995 the largest positive SST anomaly was observed in the mid-basin and was related to reduced latent heat flux due to weak surface winds. In the western basin the initial warming was related to enhanced external heating and reduced cooling effects of both vertical mixing and horizontal advection associated with weaker than usual wind stress. In the eastern Pacific where winds were not significantly anomalous throughout 1994-1995, only a moderate warm surface anomaly was detected. This is in contrast to strong El Nino events where the SST anomaly is largest in the eastern basin and, as shown by previous studies, the anomaly is due to zonal advection rather than anomalous surface heat flux. The end of the warm event was marked by cooling in July 1995 everywhere across the equatorial Pacific.

Rienecker, Michele M.↗

The Influence of Anomalous Biomass Emissions on ENSO in CESM2

Abstract The influence of biomass burning (BB) aerosols arising from wildfires and agricultural fires on the transient coupled evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is explored in Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). For both El Niño and La Niña, two 20-member ensembles are generated from initial states that are predisposed to evolve into ENSO events. For each ENSO phase, one ensemble is forced with the observed BB emissions during satellite-era ENSO events while the other is forced with a climatological annual cycle, with the responses to anomalous BB emissions estimated from interensemble differences. It is found that the regional responses to anomalous BB emissions occur mainly during boreal fall, which is also the time of the climatological seasonal maximum in emissions. Transient responses are identified in precipitation, clouds, and radiation in both the tropics and extratropics. At the onset of El Niño, these include increased precipitation in the northern branch of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and an enhancement of cloud albedo and amount across the Maritime Continent and eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. Additional responses are identified through the course of El Niño and successive La Niña events, the net effect of which is to strengthen sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean during El Niño and warm the tropical Pacific Ocean during La Niña. These responses improve the simulation of ENSO power, diversity, and asymmetry in CESM2. Significance Statement Biomass burning emissions from both wildfires and agricultural fires during ENSO act as a climate feedback, as they are both driven by fire weather anomalies tied to ENSO and influence clouds, radiation, and precipitation on a global scale. While the largest biomass burning (BB) emissions emanate mainly from Indonesia, other regions also exhibit systematic responses. When simulated in CESM2, the emissions collectively impact the flows of energy across the tropical Pacific Ocean in a spatially and temporally complex fashion, with the net effect of improving CESM2’s simulation of ENSO events.

Fasullo, John T. [National Center for Atmospheric ↗

Anomalous Expansion of Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 24 and Its Space Weather Implications

The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magnetic + plasma) is reduced by approximately 40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle.

coronal mass ejections↗

The Largest Ever Recorded Heatwave—Characteristics and Attribution of the Antarctic Heatwave of March 2022

An unprecedented heatwave impacted East Antarctica in March 2022, peaking at 39°C above climatology, the largest temperature anomaly ever recorded globally. We investigate the causes of the heatwave, the impact of climate change, and a climate model's ability in simulating such an event. The heatwave, which was skillfully forecast, resulted from a highly anomalous large-scale circulation pattern that advected an Australian airmass to East Antarctica in 4 days and produced record atmospheric heat fluxes. Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures anomalies had a minimal impact on the heatwave's amplitude. Simulations from a climate model fail to simulate such a large temperature anomaly mostly due to biases in its large-scale circulation variability, showcasing a pathway for future model improvement in simulating extreme heatwaves. The heatwave was made 2°C warmer by climate change, and end of 21st century heatwaves may be an additional 5–6°C warmer, raising the prospect of near-melting temperatures over the interior of East Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗