Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Yield Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Direct HCN synthesis via plasma-assisted conversion of methane and nitrogen

Hydrogen cyanide (HCN) is synthesized from ammonia (NH 3 ) and methane (CH 4 ) at ~1200°C over a Pt catalyst. Ammonia synthesis entails several complex, highly emitting processes. Plasma-assisted HCN synthesis directly from CH 4 and nitrogen (N 2 ) could be pivotal for on-demand HCN production. Here, we evaluate the potential of dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) N 2 /CH 4 plasma for decentralized catalyst-free selective HCN production. We demonstrate a single-step conversion of methane and nitrogen to HCN with a 72% yield at <300°C. HCN is favored at low CH 4 concentrations with ethane (C 2 H 6 ) as the secondary product. We propose a first-principles microkinetic model with few electron impact reactions. The model accurately predicts primary product yields and elucidates that methyl radical (·CH 3 ) is a common intermediate in HCN and C 2 H 6 synthesis. Compared to current industrial processes, N 2 /CH 4 DBD plasma can achieve minimal CO 2 emissions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Structural stability of thin overhanging walls during material extrusion additive manufacturing of thermoset-based ink

Recent developments have enabled material extrusion additive manufacturing of thermoset-based composite inks on the large scale. In addition, printing out-of-plane components is of broad interest to the polymer material extrusion community. Here, we address some of the challenges associated with both large-scale and out-of-plane thermoset material extrusion additive manufacturing by studying the height at which thin overhanging walls collapse. Walls at a range of overhang angles were printed until they collapsed. An optical camera captured the profile of each wall throughout the print, allowing the collapse height to be identified and the geometric fidelity to the programmed angle to be evaluated. Using previously measured rheological properties, predictive models were generated to approximate the collapse height and profile of the deflected walls. First, an analytical model was created to predict the height at which the walls would yield. The analytical model assumes the walls exhibit a perfectly linear profile; however, experiments proved this assumption to be false. Therefore, a finite element simulation was developed to account for the elastic deflection that occurs during printing. The finite element simulation predicts both the yield height and the deflected profile after the deposition of each layer. For the properties of the thermoset ink used here, the yield height predicted by the analytical model and finite element simulation are virtually identical. These predictions match experimental data reasonably well, but minor errors are observed. Accounting for the fully plastic moment appears to explain the small mismatch between experimental data and predictions. Additionally, the finite element simulation provides an excellent prediction of the deflected profile before the wall begins to collapse. Finally, by demonstrating that the collapse height and deflected profile of thin overhanging walls can be predicted, this work illustrates how the soft viscoelastic properties of thermoset-based composite inks limit the scale of a key feature required to print some nonplanar components. It also provides a basis to tailor in-process curing systems to suppress deflection and collapse of thin overhanging walls.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Modeling Yield, Biogenic Emissions, and Carbon Sequestration in Southeastern Cropping Systems With Winter Carinata

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production from lipids is a technologically mature approach for replacing conventional fossil fuel use in the aviation sector, and there is increasing demand for such feedstocks. The oilseed Brassica carinata (known as Ethiopian mustard or simply carinata) is a promising SAF feedstock that can be grown as a supplemental cash crop over the winter fallow season of various annual crop rotations in the Southeast US, avoiding land use changes and potentially achieving some of the soil carbon sequestration and ecosystem service benefits of winter cover crops. However, carinata may require more intensive management than traditional cover crops, potentially leading to additional soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through increased carbon losses from soil tillage and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from nitrogen fertilizer application. In this work, the 2017 version of the process-based DayCent ecosystem model was used to establish initial expectations for the total regional SAF production potential and associated soil GHG emissions when carinata is integrated as a winter crop into the existing crop rotations across its current suitability range in southern Alabama, southern Georgia, and northern Florida. Using data from academic and industry carinata field trials in the region, DayCent was calibrated to reproduce carinata yield, nitrogen response, harvest index, and biomass carbon-to-nitrogen ratio. The resulting model was then used to simulate the integration of carinata every third winter across all 2.1 Mha of actively cultivated cropland in the study area. The model predicted regional average yields of 2.9–3.0 Mg carinata seed per hectare depending on crop management assumptions. That results in the production of more than two million Mg of carinata seed annually across the study area, enough to supply approximately one billion liters of SAF. Conventional management of carinata led to only modest increases in soil carbon storage that were largely offset by additional N2O emissions. Climate-smart management via adopting no-till carinata establishment or using poultry litter as a nitrogen source resulted in a substantial net soil GHG sink (0.23–0.31 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 , or 0.24–0.32 Mg CO2e per Mg of seed produced) at the farms where carinata is cultivated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Blending and cavern formation within non-Newtonian fluids in stirred tanks: Application to nuclear waste fluid processing

A numerical approach for predicting the time-accurate fluid flow and mixing properties of non-Newtonian fluids is presented. This approach, which is based on the lattice Boltzmann method, is used to characterize the blending in shear-thinning fluids, as well as cavern formation in yield-stress fluids. Predictions compare favorably to measured data and expectations from first-principles theory. Importantly, across the range of fluids and systems here, the simulations require no reparameterization or retuning between scenarios. This generality is exploited to model a nuclear waste processing unit operation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Cosmic Supernova Neutrino and Gamma-Ray Backgrounds in the MeV Regime

Cosmic multimessenger backgrounds include relic diffuse components created in the early universe and contributions from individual sources. Here, we study both type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) contributions to the diffuse neutrino and gamma-ray backgrounds in the MeV regime referred to as DSNB and DSGB respectively. We show that the diffuse SN Ia background is 10 6 times lower (for $\overline{v}_e$) than the CCSN background making it negligible. Our predicted DSNB $\overline{v}_e$ flux at earth in the 19.3–32 MeV regime is 0.36 ν cm -2 s -1 . We also find that the DSNB flux in the energy range from 11.3 to 32 MeV varies by +29% with a change in the SFRD model from Madau & Fragos which yielded a minimum predicted flux, to the extragalactic background light reconstruction model (maximum predicted flux). The diffuse SN Ia gamma-ray background and its dependence on the progenitor supernova delay time distribution are also evaluated. Furthermore, we address the origin of the CGB (Cosmic Gamma-ray Background) in the 0.1–7 MeV regime by adding contributions from sources such as SNe Ia, CCSNe, radio-quiet Active Galactic Nuclei, Flat spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) and Neutron star—neutron star mergers. We find that our modeled background (including uncertainties) matches the observed CGB above 1.0 MeV, but is a factor ≈2 lower than the observed flux in the 0.1–1.0 MeV range, highlighting the need for future MeV missions to establish the CGB spectrum more reliably, and to possibly identify additional sources or even source classes in the underexplored MeV band.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Implementation of tritium transport in a gas-liquid contactor CFD simulation of tritium extraction from lead-lithium in ANSYS fluent

Modifications to the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) software ANSYS Fluent were done to quantify and characterize tritium transport in Gas-Liquid Contactors (GLCs). A double-slit, Ergun-like equation was employed for the porous media model, with Ergun coefficients validated with Sulzer’s Sulcol software. Tritium transport from PbLi within the GLC was verified against analytical models. The geometry of the CFD model was based on the MELODIE GLC experiment. The hydrodynamic CFD pressure drop results align well with SulCol estimations and fall between the predictions of the analytical Delft-Olujic and Billet & Schultes models. In terms of mass transfer efficiency, traditional mass transfer models showed a significant deviation from experimental results when using varying values of H solubility in PbLi. A saturation phenomenon occurred when utilizing high solubility values for hydrogen in PbLi. In conclusion, a modified film theory mass transfer coefficient, incorporating either the Delft-Olujic or Billet & Schultes wettability model, yielded CFD-predicted extraction efficiencies that closely matched experimental measurements.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Performance and transport in the ARC tokamak

The ARC TM tokamak, a high-field (𝐵 𝑇 = 11.4 T) fusion power plant, under development by Commonwealth Fusion Systems, is studied using a suite of integrated modelling tools to predict its fusion power generation (𝑃𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠), transport and confinement properties. Analysis is based off an ARC operational point scoped first with zero-dimensional (0-D) plasma operational contour (POPCON) modelling to produce 1.13 GW of fusion power. A suite of integrated modelling tools (TRANSP, ASTRA and TORAX) were applied to predict the performance and kinetic profiles of the ARC design point, yielding a range of predicted performance spanning from ∼900 to 1300 MW in rough quantitative agreement with POPCON predictions. The sensitivity of these results to uncertain modelling inputs was probed using scans of pedestal boundary conditions around EPED-predicted values (total pressure and temperature ratios), tungsten concentration and seperatrix density around their nominal assumptions. Pedestal pressure and pedestal top (𝑇 𝑖 /𝑇 𝑒 ) play a large role in 1.5-dimensional performance predictions, able to modify the predicted 𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 by a factor of 2 within reasonable assumptions. High-fidelity core nonlinear gyrokinetic profile predictions, performed using CGYRO (Candy et al. 2016 J. Comput. Phys., vol. 324, pp. 73–93) coupled with the PORTALS (Rodriguez-Fernandez et al. 2024 Nucl. Fusion, vol. 64, 076034; Phys. Plasmas, vol. 31, 2024, 062501) framework, yield substantially lower performance (𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 =677 MW) compared with 0-D and medium-fidelity modelling for nominal assumptions, showing that there is non-negligible uncertainty between models and that future work on SPARC may help resolve discrepancies. Lower overall performance results from significantly reduced volume-averaged densities and temperatures, along with reduced levels of density and temperature peaking. Turbulence and transport are largely dominated by ion temperature gradient across the profile, confirmed by both linear stability and the response of the nonlinear fluxes to changes in gradients, with some impact of kinetic ballooning modes in the deep core. This work represents one of the most complete scoping of potential fusion power plant conditions performed to date. The extensive integrated modelling provides confidence in ARC performance approaching 1 GW, while nonlinear gyrokinetic modelling results in open questions into the physics of density and temperature peaking in fusion-power-plant-relevant operational space. A discussion of results and the role that the SPARC tokamak (Creely et al. 2020 J. Plasma Phys., vol. 86, 865860502) will play in informing ARC design, performance and operation is presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Scaling High-Resolution Soil Organic Matter Composition to Improve Predictions of Potential Soil Respiration Across the Continental United States

Despite the importance of microbial soil organic matter (SOM) respiration in regulating the flux of carbon between soils and the atmosphere, soil carbon cycling models remain primarily based on climate and soil properties, leading to large uncertainty in predictions. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed high-resolution water-extractable SOM profiles from soil cores collected across the United States by the 1,000 Soils Pilot of the Molecular Observation Network. Our innovation lies in using machine learning to distill thousands of SOM formula into tractable units; and it enables integrating data from molecular measurements into soil respiration models. In surface soils, SOM chemistry provided better estimates of potential soil respiration than soil physicochemistry, and using them combined yielded the best prediction. Overall, we identify specific subsets of organic molecules that may improve predictions of global soil respiration and create a strong basis for developing new representations in process-based models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling household online shopping demand in the U.S.: a machine learning approach and comparative investigation between 2009 and 2017

Despite the rapid growth of online shopping and research interest in the relationship between online and in-store shopping, national-level modeling and investigation of the demand for online shopping with a prediction focus remain limited in the literature. Here, this paper differs from prior work and leverages two recent releases of the U.S. National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data for 2009 and 2017 to develop machine learning (ML) models, specifically gradient boosting machine (GBM), for predicting household-level online shopping purchases. The NHTS data allow for not only conducting nationwide investigation but also at the level of households, which is more appropriate than at the individual level given the connected consumption and shopping needs of members in a household. We follow a systematic procedure for model development including employing Recursive Feature Elimination algorithm to select input variables (features) in order to reduce the risk of model overfitting and increase model explainability. Among several ML models, GBM is found to yield the best prediction accuracy. Extensive post-modeling investigation is conducted in a comparative manner between 2009 and 2017, including quantifying the importance of each input variable in predicting online shopping demand, and characterizing value-dependent relationships between demand and the input variables. In doing so, two latest advances in machine learning techniques, namely Shapley value-based feature importance and Accumulated Local Effects plots, are adopted to overcome inherent drawbacks of the popular techniques in current ML modeling. The modeling and investigation are performed at the national level, with a number of findings obtained. The models developed and insights gained can be used for online shopping-related freight demand generation and may also be considered for evaluating the potential impact of relevant policies on online shopping demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An experimentally validated evaporative phase change heat transfer model for low mass flux applications using R134a in plate heat exchangers

Plate frame heat exchangers are common in liquid-coupled vapor compression systems due to their compactness and ease of maintenance. In some of these systems, the refrigerant within the evaporator can enter the heat exchanger as a subcooled liquid. As a result, the refrigerant passes through three different phases: single-phase liquid, two-phase fluid, and a superheated vapor. Unfortunately, there have been limited prior studies that have identified the best method to predict performance under these circumstances. Furthermore, previous investigations have not evaluated refrigerant evaporation in large industrial sized plate frame heat exchangers under conditions experienced in the present study experimental test facility, especially at mass fluxes below 7 kg m –2 s –1 . In the present investigation, a model was developed to predict the performance of plate and frame heat exchangers when the fluid enters as a subcooled liquid and exits as a superheated vapor. The model used full-sized plate heat exchanger geometry that was discretized into 20 sections to accurately capture local heat transfer and pressure drop effects. The model was validated using an R134a counter flow heat exchanger used in a turbo-compression cooling system test facility that had subcooled liquid entering the evaporator at low mass fluxes. A variety of empirical correlations were evaluated to determine what combination yielded the best predictive capability over the following range of conditions: 5.8 < G < 6.8 kg m –2 s –1 , 2 < q” < 2.8 kW m –2 , and 10 °C < T sat < 15 °C. When the correlations used a fixed control volume length in the heat flux calculation, the most accurate combination resulted in a mean absolute error of 5.5%. Finally, future studies can use the approach described here to optimize heat exchanger size and performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluating the Conservation of Energy Variables in Simulations of Deep Moist Convection

Abstract It is often assumed in parcel theory calculations, numerical models, and cumulus parameterizations that moist static energy (MSE) is adiabatically conserved. However, the adiabatic conservation of MSE is only approximate because of the assumption of hydrostatic balance. Two alternative variables are evaluated here: MSE − IB and MSE + KE, wherein IB is the path integral of buoyancy ( B ) and KE is kinetic energy. Both of these variables relax the hydrostatic assumption and are more precisely conserved than MSE. This article quantifies the errors that result from assuming that the aforementioned variables are conserved in large-eddy simulations (LES) of both disorganized and organized deep convection. Results show that both MSE − IB and MSE + KE better predict quantities along trajectories than MSE alone. MSE − IB is better conserved in isolated deep convection, whereas MSE − IB and MSE + KE perform comparably in squall-line simulations. These results are explained by differences between the pressure perturbation behavior of squall lines and isolated convection. Errors in updraft B diagnoses are universally minimized when MSE − IB is assumed to be adiabatically conserved, but only when moisture dependencies of heat capacity and temperature dependency of latent heating are accounted for. When less accurate latent heat and heat capacity formulae were used, MSE − IB yielded poorer B predictions than MSE due to compensating errors. Our results suggest that various applications would benefit from using either MSE − IB or MSE + KE instead of MSE with properly formulated heat capacities and latent heats.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MORPHOLOGICAL AND RADIATION DAMAGE INFORMED THERMAL PROPERTY PREDICTION IN SCALED GEOMETRIC DOMAINS

This proposed work has the potential to rewrite the way the nuclear industry investigates new fuel and nuclear material designs. The current rubric of nuclear material design has myriad steps in the process, and while certain physics are modeled accurately, each step must be connected in order to obtain an entire description of the process. At present, neutronic, thermal, microstructural, fission product chemistry and migration, and radiation defect analysis (hereafter referred to together as “combined analysis”) are performed, albeit separately. There is no existing method which combines these physics in an attempt to understand the natural interactions between these phenomena. Consequently, the timeline for design, fabrication, experiment, validation, and licensing can take years. A disruptive approach is required to accelerate the development of new technology. This proposed undertaking creates a validated computational framework, generating a new microscopic-to-macroscopic methodology yielding thermal property predictions for nuclear fuels and materials at an engineering spatial scale.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Dynamic calibration of differential equations using machine learning, with application to turbulence models

We present a methodology for calibration of parametric ordinary and partial differential equation models, using off-the-shelf software for back-propagation in Neural Networks (NN). As a prototypical example, we consider calibration of a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence closure model, against ground truth data from direct numerical simulations (DNS) of two different turbulent flows. Numerical time integration is represented as a custom NN, where only the RANS model parameters are trainable. A loss function is defined to quantify the mismatch between the NN prediction and the ground truth over a predefined, finite time integration window. This loss function is then minimized using a gradient descent method utilizing the back-propagation algorithm. Furthermore, this dynamic approach to training is to be contrasted with a static approach, wherein a least square regression estimate for parameters is obtained in the limit of an infinitesimal time integration window. In a first test of static and dynamic approaches against ground truth data generated by the model, the former proves to be significantly faster and more accurate than the latter at recovering the parameters. When both calibration approaches are tested against DNS data, for which it is known that the model cannot achieve a perfect fit, the static approach yields a good prediction only for short times, while the dynamic approach results in physical and stable predictions over the entire integration window. After optimization of the dynamic approach for time step, spatial resolution, stability, and physics-based constraints, we obtain a 50% improvement of outcomes over those obtained from the existing, manually calibrated set of parameters, demonstrating the merits of this systematic and automated procedure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Metabolic flux and resource balance in the oleaginous yeast Rhodotorula toruloides

The yeast Rhodotorula toruloides is a promising bioproduction organism due to its high lipid yields and ability to grow on cheap and abundant substrates. Quantitative, systems-level assessment of its metabolic activity is accordingly merited. Resource-balance analysis (RBA) models capture not only reaction stoichiometry but also enzyme requirements for catalysis, providing valuable tools for understanding metabolic trade-offs and optimizing metabolic engineering strategies. Here, in this work, we present systems-level measurements of R. toruloides metabolic flux based on isotope tracing and metabolic flux analysis. In combination with new proteomic measurements, these flux data are used to parameterize a genome-scale resource balance model rtRBA. We find that S. cerevisiae and R. toruloides grow at nearly indistinguishable rates using similar biosynthetic but dramatically different central metabolic programs. R. toruloides consumes one-fifth as much glucose, which it metabolizes primarily via the pentose phosphate pathway and TCA cycle unlike primarily glycolysis in S. cerevisiae . Overall, across these two divergent yeasts, protein abundances aligned more closely than metabolic flux. Resource balance modeling of these metabolic programs predicts superior theoretical yields but lower productivities in R. toruloides than S. cerevisiae for industrial chemicals, highlighting the value of rapid glucose uptake for productivity but respiratory metabolism for yields.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Hypertriton puzzle in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

The yields of hadrons and light nuclei in relativistic collisions of heavy-nuclei at a center of mass energy of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 2.6 TeV can be described remarkably well by a thermal distribution of an ideal gas of hadrons and light nuclei interacting only via the decay of resonances. Given the particularly small binding energy of hypertritons relative to the temperature describing the yields (about 156 MeV), one might naturally expect hypertrions to dissociate in medium, making the agreement of hypertriton yields with thermal predictions highly puzzling. The puzzle is compounded by the fact that small binding energy is associated with the large size of the hypertriton. This size is on a similar scale to the overall size of the fireball and much larger than the length scale over which temperatures in the fireball vary over phenomenologically relevant amounts. Here, this paper quantifies the tension this effect causes and shows that it is sufficiently large to render the thermal model inconsistent: its natural assumptions are in conflict with its outputs. The possibility that hypertritons are formed at freeze out as compact objects, quark droplets, that subsequently evolve into hypertritons is considered as a way to resolve the puzzle. It is noted that beyond making the assumption that compact quark droplets form, additional detailed dynamical assumptions which have not been justified are needed to make the thermal model work. The issue of why, despite these issues, the hypertriton is well described by a simple statistical description at freeze out is unresolved. Resolving the hypertriton puzzle is important as it may clarify whether the phenomenological success of the simple thermal model for yields accurately reflects the simple picture of the underlying physics on which it is based.

hydrodynamic models↗

Coupling physics in machine learning to predict properties of high-temperatures alloys

Abstract High-temperature alloy design requires a concurrent consideration of multiple mechanisms at different length scales. We propose a workflow that couples highly relevant physics into machine learning (ML) to predict properties of complex high-temperature alloys with an example of the 9–12 wt% Cr steels yield strength. We have incorporated synthetic alloy features that capture microstructure and phase transformations into the dataset. Identified high impact features that affect yield strength of 9Cr from correlation analysis agree well with the generally accepted strengthening mechanism. As a part of the verification process, the consistency of sub-datasets has been extensively evaluated with respect to temperature and then refined for the boundary conditions of trained ML models. The predicted yield strength of 9Cr steels using the ML models is in excellent agreement with experiments. The current approach introduces physically meaningful constraints in interrogating the trained ML models to predict properties of hypothetical alloys when applied to data-driven materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Measurement of Higgs boson decay into $b$-quarks in associated production with a top-quark pair in $pp$ collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The associated production of a Higgs boson and a top-quark pair is measured in events characterized by the presence of one or two electrons or muons. The Higgs boson decay into a b-quark pair is used. The analyzed data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 , were collected in proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider between 2015 and 2018 at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 13 TeV. The measured signal strength, defined as the ratio of the measured signal yield to that predicted by the Standard Model, is $0.35$ $^{+0.36}_{–0.34}$. This result is compatible with the Standard Model prediction and corresponds to an observed (expected) significance of 1.0 (2.7) standard deviations. The signal strength is also measured differentially in bins of the Higgs boson transverse momentum in the simplified template cross-section framework, including a bin for specially selected boosted Higgs bosons with transverse momentum above 300 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Pure quark and gluon observables in collinear drop

We construct a class of pure quark and gluon observables by using the collinear drop grooming technique. The construction is based on linear combinations of multiple cumulative distributions of the jet mass in collinear drop, whose specific weights are fully predicted perturbatively. This yields observables which obtain their values purely from quarks (or purely from gluons) in a wide region of phase space. We demonstrate this by showing that these observables are effective in two phase space regions, one dominated by perturbative resummation and one dominated by nonperturbative effects. The nonperturbative effects are included using shape functions which only appear as a common factor in the linear combinations constructed. We test this construction using a numerical analysis with next-to-leading logarithmic resummation and various shape function models, as well as analyzing these observables with PYTHIA and VINCIA. Choices for the collinear drop parameters are optimized for experimental use.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗