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A Future Mars Environment for Science and Exploration

Today, Mars is arid and cold with a very thin atmosphere that has significant frozen and underground water resources. The thin atmosphere prevents liquid water from residing permanently on its surface and makes it difficult to land missions since it is not thick enough to completely facilitate a soft landing. In its past, under the influence of a significant greenhouse effect, Mars must have had a significant water ocean covering perhaps 30% of the northern hemisphere. Mars lost its protective magnetosphere and therefore much of its atmosphere around 3 Ga ago, due to the solar wind. The atmospheric loss into the solar wind is somewhat balanced by the outgassing of the Mars interior and crust that contributes to the existing atmosphere leading to a global-mean surface atmosphere of ~6 mbar pressure currently. By using our extensive simulation tools and physics capabilities in Space Weather and Mars global climate modeling, we have started to explore the effects on Mars of placing an artificial magnetic dipole field at the Mars L1 Lagrange point putting Mars in a magnetotail. This situation then eliminates many of the solar-wind erosion processes that occur with the planet's ionosphere and upper atmosphere allowing the Martian atmosphere to grow in pressure and bulk temperature over time. Under thicker atmospheres, the global circulation patterns and seasonal changes are much different than at present. An enhanced atmosphere would: allow larger landed mass of equipment to the surface, shield against some cosmic and solar particle radiation, extend the ability for extraction, and provide "open air" greenhouses to exist for plant production, just to name a few. These new conditions on Mars would allow human explorers and researchers to study the planet in much greater detail and enable a truly profound new understanding of the habitability of this planet.

Space Weather and Mars global climate modeling↗

Lunar utilization

The resources, techniques, and purposes to which lunar materials could be put are discussed, with attention given to transporting lunar materials to cislunar space for the construction of space manufacturing and habitable facilities. A model molecule, demandite, which represents the mole fraction of all materials used in the U.S. in 1967, is used to assess the lunar resources defined during Apollo missions. It is shown that duplication of the same manufacturing, fuel, and life-support systems in space as those on earth would cost several orders of magnitude more if the materials originated on earth than on the moon. The demandite would be sent into cislunar orbit using linear electric motors. Lunar surface concentrations of pyroxenes, olivine, feldspars, ilmenite, basalts, anorthostatic rocks, and breccias are reviewed, noting that carbon in the regolith is solar-wind derived, while in lunar rocks the carbon is indigenous. Lunar mining techniques are envisioned, especially the capacity to move large masses at 1/6 the effort required on the earth.

Waldron, R. D.↗

The Nimbus satellites - Pioneering earth observers

The many scientific achievements of the Nimbus series of seven satellites for low-altitude atmospheric research and global weather surveillance are reviewed. The series provides information on fishery resources, weather modeling, atmospheric pollution monitoring, earth's radiation budget, ozone monitoring, ocean dynamics, and the effects of cloudiness. Data produced by the forty-eight instruments and sensors flown on the satellites are applied in the fields of oceanography, hydrology, geology, geomorphology, geography, cartography, agriculture and meteorology. The instruments include the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (which depicts phytoplankton concentrations in coastal areas), the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (which measures sea-surface temperatures and sea-surface wind-speed), and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (which provides information on total amounts of ozone in the earth's atmosphere).

White, Carolynne↗

Monitoring and control requirement definition study for Dispersed Storage and Generation (DSG). Volume 3, appendix B: State of the art, trends, and potential growth of selected DSG technologies

Present and future relatively small (30 MW) energy systems, such as solar thermal electric, photovoltaic, wind, fuel cell, storage battery, hydro, and cogeneration can help achieve national energy goals and can be dispersed throughout the distribution portion of an electric utility system. Based on current projections, it appears that dispersed storage and generation (DSG) electrical energy will comprise only a small portion, from 4 to 10 percent, of the national total by the end of this century. In general, the growth potential for DSG seems favorable in the long term because of finite fossil energy resources and increasing fuel prices. Recent trends, especially in the institutional and regulatory fields, favor greater use of the DSGs for the future.

Source record↗

NASA Tech Briefs, June 2011

Topics covered include: Wind and Temperature Spectrometry of the Upper Atmosphere in Low-Earth Orbit; Health Monitor for Multitasking, Safety-Critical, Real-Time Software; Stereo Imaging Miniature Endoscope; Early Oscillation Detection Technique for Hybrid DC/DC Converters; Parallel Wavefront Analysis for a 4D Interferometer; Schottky Heterodyne Receivers With Full Waveguide Bandwidth; Carbon Nanofiber-Based, High-Frequency, High-Q, Miniaturized Mechanical Resonators; Ultracapacitor-Based Uninterrupted Power Supply System; Coaxial Cables for Martian Extreme Temperature Environments; Using Spare Logic Resources To Create Dynamic Test Points; Autonomous Coordination of Science Observations Using Multiple Spacecraft; Autonomous Phase Retrieval Calibration; EOS MLS Level 1B Data Processing Software, Version 3; Cassini Tour Atlas Automated Generation; Software Development Standard Processes (SDSP); Graphite Composite Panel Polishing Fixture; Material Gradients in Oxygen System Components Improve Safety; Ridge Waveguide Structures in Magnesium-Doped Lithium Niobate; Modifying Matrix Materials to Increase Wetting and Adhesion; Lightweight Magnetic Cooler With a Reversible Circulator; The Invasive Species Forecasting System; Method for Cleanly and Precisely Breaking Off a Rock Core Using a Radial Compressive Force; Praying Mantis Bending Core Breakoff and Retention Mechanism; Scoring Dawg Core Breakoff and Retention Mechanism; Rolling-Tooth Core Breakoff and Retention Mechanism; Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System for Spacecraft Exercise Treadmill Devices; Microgravity-Enhanced Stem Cell Selection; Diagnosis and Treatment of Neurological Disorders by Millimeter-Wave Stimulation; Passive Vaporizing Heat Sink; Remote Sensing and Quantization of Analog Sensors; Phase Retrieval for Radio Telescope and Antenna Control; Helium-Cooled Black Shroud for Subscale Cryogenic Testing; Receive Mode Analysis and Design of Microstrip Reflectarrays; and Chance-Constrained Guidance With Non-Convex Constraints.

Source record↗

Atmospheric analysis and prediction model development, volume 1

A set of hemispheric atmospheric analysis and prediction models was designed and tested. All programs were executed on either a 63 x 63 or 187 x 187 polar stereographic grid of the Northern Hemisphere. Parameters for objective analysis included sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, and twelve levels (from 1,000 to 100 millibars) of temperatures, heights, and winds. Stratospheric extensions (up to 10 millibars) were also provided. Four versions of a complex atmospheric prediction model, based on primitive equations, were programmed and tested. These models were executed on either the 63 x 63 or 187 x 187 grid, using either five or ten computational layers. The coarse-mesh (63 x 63) models were tested using real data for the period 21-23 April 1976. The fine-mesh (187 x 187) models were debugged, but insufficient computer resources precluded production tests. Preliminary test results for the 63 x 63 models are provided. Problem areas and proposed solutions are discussed.

Kesel, P. G.↗

The Global Ocean Observing System

A Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) should be established now with international coordination (1) to address issues of global change, (2) to implement operational ENSO forecasts, (3) to provide the data required to apply global ocean circulation models, and (4) to extract the greatest value from the one billion dollar investment over the next ten years in ocean remote sensing by the world's space agencies. The objectives of GOOS will focus on climatic and oceanic predictions, on assessing coastal pollution, and in determining the sustainability of living marine resources and ecosystems. GOOS will be a complete system including satellite observations, in situ observations, numerical modeling of ocean processes, and data exchange and management. A series of practical and economic benefits will be derived from the information generated by GOOS. In addition to the marine science community, these benefits will be realized by the energy industries of the world, and by the world's fisheries. The basic oceanic variables that are required to meet the oceanic and predictability objectives of GOOS include wind velocity over the ocean, sea surface temperature and salinity, oceanic profiles of temperature and salinity, surface current, sea level, the extent and thickness of sea ice, the partial pressure of CO2 in surface waters, and the chlorophyll concentration of surface waters. Ocean circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to evaluate observing system design, to assimilate diverse data sets from in situ and remotely sensed observations, and ultimately to predict future states of the system. The volume of ocean data will increase enormously over the next decade as new satellite systems are launched and as complementary in situ measuring systems are deployed. These data must be transmitted, quality controlled, exchanged, analyzed, and archived with the best state-of-the-art computational methods.

Kester, Dana↗

Managing the Implementation of Mission Operations Automation

Reducing the cost of mission operations has necessitated a high level of automation both on spacecraft and ground systems. While automation on spacecraft is implemented during the design phase, ground system automation tends to be implemented during the prime mission operations phase. Experience has shown that this tendency for late automation development can be hindered by several factors: additional hardware and software resources may need to be procured; software must be developed and tested on a non-interference basis with primary operations with limited manpower; and established procedures may not be suited for automation requiring substantial rework. In this paper we will review the experience of successfully automating mission operations for seven on-orbit missions: the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE), the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE), Interplanetary Physics Laboratory (WIND), Polar Plasma Laboratory (POLAR), and the Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE). We will provide lessons learned in areas such as: spacecraft recorder management, procedure development, lights out commanding from the ground system vs. stored command loads, spacecraft contingency response time, and ground station interfaces. Implementing automation strategies during the mission concept and spacecraft integration and test phase as the most efficient method will be discussed.

Sodano, R.↗

Mississippi Sound remote sensing study

A study of the Mississippi Sound was initiated in early 1971 by personnel of NASA Earth Resources Laboratory. Four separate seasonal experiments consisting of quasi-synoptic remote and surface measurements over the entire area were planned. Approximately 80 stations distributed throughout Mississippi Sound were occupied. Surface water temperature and secchi extinction depth were measured at each station and water samples were collected for water quality analyses. The surface distribution of three water parameters of interest from a remote sensing standpoint - temperature, salinity and chlorophyll content - are displayed in map form. Areal variations in these parameters are related to tides and winds. A brief discussion of the general problem of radiative measurements of water temperature is followed by a comparison of remotely measured temperatures (PRT-5) to surface vessel measurements.

Atwell, B. H.↗

Antarctic Meteorites: A Statistical Look at a Uniquely Valuable Resource

As of the 2019-20 field season, the U.S. Antarctic meteorite program has collected >23,000 meteorites. The U.S. collection is valuable in that it is classified in its entirety. The systematic collection methods employed have pro-vided meteorites of >40 types, many of which are the first of their type ever recognized. One of the early drivers for characterization of the entire U.S. Antarctic collection was to allow statistical comparisons. Early statistical assessments examined mass distributions and the relative frequency of meteorite types as well as comparisons to a defined set of modern falls. Using these statistics some have argued that the flux of H chondrites changed over time. Harvey used model size distributions to deconstruct the contribution of wind movement, meteorite supply and search losses to the Antarctic collection. Mass-based statistics and size distribution comparisons were examined, including comparison with modern falls/Saharan finds. Focus has been on geospatial statistics, with a comprehensive overview of the statistics of the Antarctic collections provided from the first 35 seasons of U.S. collection by ANSMET, as well as more recent assessments.

Antarctic meteorite↗

Future requirements and roles of computers in aerodynamics

While faster computers will be needed to make solution of the Navier-Stokes equations practical and useful, most all of the other aerodynamic solution techniques can benefit from faster computers. There is a wide variety of computational and measurement techniques, the prospect of more powerful computers permits extension and an enhancement across all aerodynamic methods, including wind-tunnel measurement. It is expected that, as in the past, a blend of methods will be used to predict aircraft aerodynamics in the future. These will include methods based on solution of the Navier-Stokes equations and the potential flow equations as well as those based on empirical and measured results. The primary flows of interest in aircraft aerodynamics are identified, the predictive methods currently in use and/or under development are reviewed and two of these methods are analyzed in terms of the computational resources needed to improve their usefulness and practicality.

Gregory, T. J.↗

Use of particle beams for lunar prospecting

A key issue in choosing the appropriate site for a manned lunar base is the availability of resources, particularly oxygen and hydrogen for the production of water, and ores for the production of fuels and building materials. NASA has proposed two Lunar Scout missions that would orbit the Moon and use, among other instruments, a hard X-ray spectrometer, a neutron spectrometer, and a Ge gamma ray spectrometer to map the lunar surface. This passive instrumentation will have low resolution (tens of kilometers) due to the low signal levels produced by natural radioactivity and the interaction of cosmic rays and the solar wind with the lunar surface. This paper presents the results of a concept definition effort for a neutral particle beam lunar mapper probe. The idea of using particle beam probes to survey asteroids was first proposed by Sagdeev et al., and an ion beam device was fielded on the 1988 Soviet probe to the Mars moon Phobos. During the past five years, significant advances in the technology of neutral particle beams (NPB) have led to a suborbital flight of a neutral hydrogen beam device in the SDIO-sponsored BEAR experiment. An orbital experiment, the Neutral Particle Beam Far Field Optics Experiment (NPB-FOX) is presently in the preliminary design phase. The development of NPB accelerators that are space-operable leads one to consider the utility of these devices for probing the surface of the Moon using gamma ray, X-ray, and optical/UV spectroscopy to locate various elements and compounds. We consider the utility of the NPB-FOX satellite containing a 5-MeV particle beam accelerator as a probe in lunar orbit. Irradiation of the lunar surface by the particle beam will induce secondary and back scattered radiation from the lunar surface to be detected by a sensor that may be co-orbital with or on the particle beam satellite platform, or may be in a separate orbit. The secondary radiation is characteristic of the make-up of the lunar surface. The size of the spot irradiated by the beam is less than 1 km wide along the ground track of the satellite, resulting in the potential for high resolution. The fact that the probe could be placed in polar orbit would result in global coverage of the lunar surface. The orbital particle beam probe could provide the basis for selection of sites for more detailed prospecting by surface rovers.

Toepfer, A. J.↗

Resources for a lunar base: Rocks, minerals, and soil of the Moon

The rocks and minerals of the Moon will be included among the raw materials used to construct a lunar base. The lunar regolith, the fragmental material present on the surface of the Moon, is composed mostly of disaggregated rocks and minerals, but also includes glassy fragments fused together by meteorite impacts. The finer fraction of the regolith (i.e., less than 1 cm) is informally referred to as soil. The soil is probably the most important portion of the regolith for use at a lunar base. For example, soil can be used as insulation against cosmic rays, for lunar ceramics and abodes, or for growing plants. The soil contains abundant solar-wind-implanted elements as well as various minerals, particularly oxide phases, that are of potential economic importance. For example, these components of the soil are sources of oxygen and hydrogen for rocket fuel, helium for nuclear energy, and metals such as Fe, Al, Si, and Ti.

Taylor, Lawrence A.↗

Cloud Ozone Dust Imager (CODI): Investigation and Technical Plan - Volume 1

The Cloud Ozone Dust Imager (CODI) is proposed to investigate the current climatic balance of the Mars atmosphere, with particular emphasis on the important but poorly understood roles which dust and water ice aerosols play in this balance. The large atmospheric heating (20-50 K) resulting from global dust storms around Mars perihelion is well recognized. However, groundbased observations of Mars atmospheric temperatures, water vapor, and clouds since the Viking missions have identified a much colder, cloudier atmosphere around Mars aphelion that may prove as important as global dust storms in determining the interannual and long-term behavior of the Mars climate. The key climate issues CODI is designed to investigate are: 1) the degree to which non-linear interactions between atmospheric dust heating, water vapor saturation, and cloud nucleation influence the seasonal and interannual variability of the Mars atmosphere, and 2) whether the strong orbital forcing of atmospheric dust loading, temperatures and water vapor saturation determines the long-term balance of Mars water, as reflected in the north-south hemispheric asymmetries of atmospheric water vapor and polar water ice abundances. The CODI experiment will measure the daily, seasonal and (potentially) interannual variability of atmospheric dust and cloud opacities, and the key physical properties of these aerosols which determine their role in the climate cycles of Mars. CODI is a small (1.2 kg), fixed pointing camera, in which four wide-angle (+/- 70 deg) lenses illuminate fixed filters and CCD arrays. Simultaneous sky/surface imaging of Mars is obtained at an angular resolution of 0.28 deg/pixel for wavelengths of 255, 336, 502, and 673 nm (similar to Hubble Space Telescope filters). These wavelengths serve to measure atmospheric ozone (255 and 336 nm), discriminate ice and dust aerosols (336 and 673 nm), and construct color images (336, 502, and 673 nm). The CODI images are detected on four 512 x 512 pixel arrays, as partitioned on two 1024 x 1024 CCD's operated in frame transfer mode. The center of the CODI field-of-view is canted 40 deg from the zenith direction to obtain sky brightness measurements and a 20 deg surface field-of-view. Daily image observations will be conducted when the Sun is greater than or equal to 5 deg outside the edge of the CODI field-of-view, and twilight and nighttime imaging will obtained on a weekly basis. The 673 nm channel includes a polarizer wheel to obtain sky/surface polarimetry. A dust cover protects the entire lens assemblies of all four CODI channels. This opaque dust cover, which is normally opened for CODI imaging, includes a small fixed mirror and transparent window positioned above the 673 nm lens, to redirect the 673 nm field-of-view to the surface for descent imaging. Fixed pointing, internal data buffering, low operating power (2-4 W for less than or equal to 30 seconds), selective data transmission, and simple operational characteristics of the CODI experiment place minimum resource and operational demands on the Mars Surveyor 1998 lander. The CODI science goals are optimized for, but not restricted to, a low-latitude landing site (20 deg S-30 deg N). The primary CODI measurement objectives are the opacities, wave forms, particle properties (size, shape, and alignment), and heights of clouds; the opacities, particle properties, and vertical distribution of dust; and the opacity and vertical distribution of ozone. The variability of cloud, ozone, and dust opacities will be determined on diurnal, daily, and seasonal timescales. Wind velocities will be determined from cloud motions and wave characteristics; and the temporal variability of atmospheric water vapor, with limited altitude information, will be inferred from the CODI ozone observations. Secondary measurement objectives include limited descent imaging capability, surface uv-visible photometry and polarimetry, photochemistry, and meteorite infall rates.

Clancy, R. Todd↗

Human Space Exploration: The Moon, Mars, and Beyond

America is returning to the Moon in preparation for the first human footprint on Mars, guided by the U.S. Vision for Space Exploration. This presentation will discuss NASA's mission, the reasons for returning to the Moon and going to Mars, and how NASA will accomplish that mission in ways that promote leadership in space and economic expansion on the new frontier. The primary goals of the Vision for Space Exploration are to finish the International Space Station, retire the Space Shuttle, and build the new spacecraft needed, to return people to the Moon and go to Mars. The Vision commits NASA and the nation to an agenda of exploration that also includes robotic exploration and technology development, while building on lessons learned over 50 years of hard-won experience. Why the Moon? Many questions about the Moon's potential resources and how its history is linked to that of Earth were spurred by the brief Apollo explorations of the 1960s and 1970s. This new venture will carry more explorers to more diverse landing sites with more capable tools and equipment for extended expeditions. The Moon also will serve as a training ground before embarking on the longer, more difficult trip to Mars. NASA plans to build a lunar outpost at one of the lunar poles, learn to live off the land, and reduce dePendence on Earth for longer missions. America needs to extend its ability to survive in hostile environments close to our home planet before astronauts will reach Mars, a planet very much like Earth. NASA has worked with scientists to define lunar exploration goals and is addressing the opportunities for a range of scientific study on Mars. In order to reach the Moon and Mars within a lifetime and within budget, NASA is building on common hardware, shared knowledge, and unique experience derived from the Apollo Saturn, Space Shuttle and contemporary commercial launch vehicle programs. The journeys to the Moon and Mars will require a variety of vehicles, including the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle, which transports the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle, and the Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle, which transports the Lunar Surface Access Module. The architecture for the lunar missions will use one launch to ferry the crew into orbit, where it will rendezvous with the Lunar Module in the Earth Departure Stage, which will then propel the combination into lunar orbit. The imperative to explore space with the combination of astronauts and robots will be the impetus for inventions such as solar power and water and waste recycling. This next chapter in NASA's history promises to write the next chapter in American history, as well. It will require this nation to provide the talent to develop tools, machines, materials, processes, technologies, and capabilities that can benefit nearly all aspects of life on Earth. Roles and responsibilities are shared between a nationwide Government and industry team. The Exploration Launch Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center manages the design, development, testing, and evaluation of both vehicles and serves as lead systems integrator. A little over a year after it was chartered, the Exploration Launch Projects team is testing engine components, refining vehicle designs, performing wind tunnel tests, and building hardware for the first flight test of Ares I-l, scheduled for spring 2009. The U.S. Vision for Space Exploration lays out a roadmap for a long-term venture of discovery. This endeavor will inspire and attract the best and brightest students to power this nation successfully to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. If one equates the value proposition for space with simple dollars and cents, the potential of the new space economy is tremendous, from orbital space delivery services for the International Space Station to mining and solar energy collection on the Moon and asteroids. The Vision for Space Exploration is fundamentally about bringing the resources of the solar system within the economic sphere of humaind. Given the immense size of our solar system, the amount of available material and energy within it present an enormous economic opportunity.

Sexton, Jeffrey D.↗

Why Is Improvement of Earth System Models so Elusive? Challenges and Strategies from Dust Aerosol Modeling

Past decades have seen an accelerating increase in computing efficiency, while climate models are representing a rapidly widening set of physical processes. Yet simulations of some fundamental aspects of climate like precipitation or aerosol forcing remain highly uncertain and resistant to progress. Dust aerosol modeling of soil particles lofted by wind erosion has seen a similar conflict between increasing model sophistication and remaining uncertainty. Dust aerosols perturb the energy and water cycles by scattering radiation and acting as ice nuclei, while mediating atmospheric chemistry and marine photosynthesis (and thus the carbon cycle). These effects take place across scales from the dimensions of an ice crystal to the planetary-scale circulation that disperses dust far downwind of its parent soil. Representing this range leads to several modeling challenges. Should we limit complexity in our model, which consumes computer resources and inhibits interpretation? How do we decide if a process involving dust is worthy of inclusion within our model? Can we identify a minimal representation of a complex process that is efficient yet retains the physics relevant to climate? Answering these questions about the appropriate degree of representation is guided by model evaluation, which presents several more challenges. How do we proceed if the available observations do not directly constrain our process of interest? (This could result from competing processes that influence the observed variable and obscure the signature of our process of interest.) Examples will be presented from dust modeling, with lessons that might be more broadly applicable. The end result will either be clinical depression or there assuring promise of continued gainful employment as the community confronts these challenges.

Climate models↗

Spillage of Lunar Polar Crater Volatiles onto Adjacent Terrains: The Case for Dynamic Processes

We present an investigation of the release and transport of lunar polar crater volatiles onto topside regions surrounding the cold traps. The volatiles are liberated via surface energization processes associated with the harsh space environment, including solar wind plasma sputtering and impact vaporization. We find that some fraction of these volatiles can migrate from crater floors onto topside regions (those regions directly adjacent to and above the polar crater floors), and that these surrounding terrains should contain a sampling of the material originating within the crater itself. It is concluded that the nature of the volatile content on crater floors can be obtained by sampling the surface volatiles that have migrated or "spilled out" onto the adjacent terrain. This "spillage" effect could make human or robotic prospecting for crater resources significantly easier, since an assessment may not require direct entry into the very harsh polar crater environment. We also suggest that there are dynamic processes actively operating on the crater floors, and we estimate their source rates assuming dynamic equilibrium of the observed water frost and our modeled loss rates.

Vaporization↗

GC13I-0857: Designing a Frost Forecasting Service for Small Scale Tea Farmers in East Africa

Kenya is the third largest tea exporter in the world, producing 10% of the world's black tea. Sixty percent of this production occurs largely by small scale tea holders, with an average farm size of 1.04 acres, and an annual net income of $1,075. According to a recent evaluation, a typical frost event in the tea growing region causes about $200 dollars in losses which can be catastrophic for a small holder farm. A 72-hour frost forecast would provide these small-scale tea farmers with enough notice to reduce losses by approximately 80 USD annually. With this knowledge, SERVIR, a joint NASA-USAID initiative that brings Earth observations for improved decision making in developing countries, sought to design a frost monitoring and forecasting service that would provide farmers with enough lead time to react to and protect against a forecasted frost occurrence on their farm. SERVIR Eastern and Southern Africa, through its implementing partner, the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), designed a service that included multiple stakeholder engagement events whereby stakeholders from the tea industry value chain were invited to share their experiences so that the exact needs and flow of information could be identified. This unique event allowed enabled the design of a service that fit the specifications of the stakeholders. The monitoring service component uses the MODIS Land Surface Temperature product to identify frost occurrences in near-real time. The prediction component, currently under testing, uses the 2-m air temperature, relative humidity, and 10-m wind speed from a series of high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model runs over eastern Kenya as inputs into a frost prediction algorithm. Accuracy and sensitivity of the algorithm is being assessed with observations collected from the farmers using a smart phone app developed specifically to report frost occurrences, and from data shared through our partner network developed at the stakeholder engagement meeting. This presentation will illustrate the efficacy of our frost forecasting algorithm, and a way forward for incorporating these forecasts in a meaningful way to the key decision makers - the small-scale farmers of East Africa.

frost↗