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At least 235 records · Page 13

Enhancing Severe Weather Prediction With Microwave All‐Sky Radiance Assimilation: The 10 August 2020 Midwest Derecho

Abstract In this study, we assimilated microwave (MW) all‐sky radiances from low‐Earth‐orbiting satellites and examined their impact on the analyses and forecasts of weather hazards associated with the 10 August 2020 Midwest derecho. Compared with the baseline that assimilated conventional surface and upper‐air observations and infrared (IR) all‐sky radiances from geostationary satellites, the addition of MW all‐sky radiances improved the analyzed and forecasted convection‐stratiform structures of the derecho. Results show that MW all‐sky radiances provided additional information, compared with IR radiances, on hydrometeors within the storm, leading to improved forecasts out to 2 hr with quantitatively more accurate surface gusts. This is the first study to assimilate MW all‐sky radiances for a severe weather event using a convection‐permitting numerical weather prediction model (our model resembles NOAA's High‐Resolution Rapid Refresh), and the results suggest promising avenues for improving severe weather forecasts worldwide in the future.

Zhang, Yunji↗

Space Weather in the Popular Media, and the Opportunities the Upcoming Solar Maximum Brings

The media interest/coverage of space weather has been increasing as we approach solar maximum and the private space industry has grown significantly since the last significant solar maximum in 2000–2002. It is not uncommon for space weather media coverage to use hyperbole with frequent references to the infamous “Carrington event.” The implications of associating each of the many upcoming moderate-to-severe storms with the Carrington event are discussed, and we encourage the curbing of hyperbole whenever possible. While there is an excellent but small cohort of space weather researchers actively engaging with the media, we urge more (particularly early-to-mid career) to take advantage of media training resources and to join in. We also call for these efforts to be broadly supported by peers and institutions for the benefit of space weather as a discipline.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Unified 0.25-degree gridded infrastructure-critical extreme weather for the United States from 1979 to 2100

Extreme weather events can severely disrupt critical infrastructure, triggering cascading effects on power, transportation, and essential services. However, standard weather and climate datasets often lack specialized variables necessary for hazard assessments. We present a unified dataset of infrastructure-critical weather and climate variables across the United States at 0.25° resolution, covering daily or sub-daily intervals from 1979 to 2100. The dataset includes temperature, dew point, wind gusts, precipitation partitioned by rain, snow, and freezing rain or ice pellets, lightning, and wildfire metrics. Historical conditions (1979-2023) are synthesized from observations and reanalysis products, while future projections are derived from 14 CMIP6 global climate models (historical, SSP245, and SSP585 experiments). Physically based and data-driven methods are used to estimate variables not directly provided by existing models. By integrating these variables into a single unified dataset, we enable consistent, high-resolution assessments of weather-related infrastructure risks across past and future periods, supporting wide-ranging applications in energy, transportation, water resources, emergency management, and beyond.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗

A coupled microscopy approach to assess the nano-landscape of weathering

Mineral weathering is a balanced interplay among physical, chemical, and biological processes. Fundamental knowledge gaps exist in characterizing the biogeochemical mechanisms that transform microbe-mineral interfaces at submicron scales, particularly in complex field systems. Our objective was to develop methods targeting the nanoscale by using high-resolution microscopy to assess biological and geochemical drivers of weathering in natural settings. Basalt, granite, and quartz (53–250 µm) were deployed in surface soils (10 cm) of three ecosystems (semiarid, subhumid, humid) for one year. We successfully developed a reference grid method to analyze individual grains using: (1) helium ion microscopy to capture micron to sub-nanometer imagery of mineral-organic interactions; and (2) scanning electron microscopy to quantify elemental distribution on the same surfaces via element mapping and point analyses. Here, we detected locations of biomechanical weathering, secondary mineral precipitation, biofilm formation, and grain coatings across the three contrasting climates. To our knowledge, this is the first time these coupled microscopy techniques were applied in the earth and ecosystem sciences to assess microbe-mineral interfaces and in situ biological contributors to incipient weathering.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ecosystem-bedrock interaction changes nutrient compartmentalization during early oxidative weathering

Ecosystem-bedrock interactions power the biogeochemical cycles of Earth’s shallow crust, supporting life, stimulating substrate transformation, and spurring evolutionary innovation. While oxidative processes have dominated half of terrestrial history, the relative contribution of the biosphere and its chemical fingerprints on Earth’s developing regolith are still poorly constrained. Here, we report results from a two-year incipient weathering experiment. We found that the mass release and compartmentalization of major elements during weathering of granite, rhyolite, schist and basalt was rock-specific and regulated by ecosystem components. A tight interplay between physiological needs of different biota, mineral dissolution rates, and substrate nutrient availability resulted in intricate elemental distribution patterns. Biota accelerated CO 2 mineralization over abiotic controls as ecosystem complexity increased, and significantly modified the stoichiometry of mobilized elements. Microbial and fungal components inhibited element leaching (23.4% and 7%), while plants increased leaching and biomass retention by 63.4%. All biota left comparable biosignatures in the dissolved weathering products. Nevertheless, the magnitude and allocation of weathered fractions under abiotic and biotic treatments provide quantitative evidence for the role of major biosphere components in the evolution of upper continental crust, presenting critical information for large-scale biogeochemical models and for the search for stable in situ biosignatures beyond Earth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting weather impacts on corn production in a data-limited region using a transfer learning approach

The stability of food supply and prices may depend more on annual changes in yields from year-to-year variability in weather than on longer-term average changes from changing climatic conditions. However, the absence of high-quality data on crop yields at fine spatial resolutions in many regions of the world makes it challenging to statistically model their response to interannual variability in weather patterns. Therefore, there is a need for empirical methods that can project annual crop yield changes even in limited data regions. Here, we propose a transfer learning algorithm that uses high spatial resolution data from one region to project yields in another region with more limited data. The goal of our work is to understand what data types can be beneficial for transferring learning from a source region to a very different target region with more limited data. We utilize Long Short-Term Memory to develop a transfer learning model that is trained on historical county-level corn yield in the United States and predicts district-level corn yield variations in India. Even using smaller amounts of data in India, simulating a data-scarce region, we achieve an average root mean square error of 0.48 bu acre−1 in predicting interannual yield variations. Using Shapley values to interpret results, we explore the contribution of the different weather parameters to interannual yield variability and find a larger influence of precipitation-related variables. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of this method for transferring models of weather impacts on crop yields trained on a data-rich country to one with more limited data. It suggests the potential of applying the transfer learning model to mitigate the need for extensive raw data globally.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [ORNL] (ORCID:000000031674419↗

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Weather patterns and hydro-climatological precursors of extreme floods in Switzerland since 1868

The generation of 24 extreme floods in large catchments of the central Alps is analyzed from instrumental and documentary data, newly digitized observations of precipitation (DigiHom) and 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) data. Extreme floods are determined by the 95th percentile of differences between an annual flood and a defined contemporary flood. For a selection of six events between 1868 and 1910, we describe preconditioning elements such as precipitation, temperature, and snow cover anomalies. Specific weather patterns are assessed through a subjective analysis of three-dimensional atmospheric circulation. A focus is placed on synoptic-scale features including mid-tropospheric ascent, low-level moisture transport, propagation of cyclones, and temperature anomalies. We propose a hydro-meteorological classification of all 24 investigated events according to flood-generating weather conditions. Key elements of the upper-level synoptic-scale flow are summarized by five types: (i) pivoting cut-off lows, (ii) elongated cut-off lows, (iii) elongated troughs, (iv) waves (with a kink), and (v) approximately zonal flow over the Alpine region. We found that the most extreme floods (as above, but ≥ 98th percentile) in Switzerland since 1868 were caused by the interaction of severe hydro-climatologic conditions with a flood-inducing weather situation. The 20CR data provide plausible synoptic-scale meteorological patterns leading to heavy precipitation. The proposed catalogue of weather patterns and hydro-climatologic precursors can give direction when anticipating the possibility of severe floods in the Alpine region.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

On the Effectiveness of Neural Operators at Zero-Shot Weather Downscaling [SWR-25-20]

Code repository for the experiments performed in the paper: On the Effectiveness of Neural Operators at Zero-Shot Weather Downscaling (https://doi.org/10.1017/eds.2025.11) Overall, our work investigates the zero-shot downscaling potential of neural operators. To summarize, our contributions are: 1. We provide a comparative analysis based on two challenging weather downscaling problems, between various neural operator and non-neural-operator methods with large upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) and fine grid resolutions (e.g., 2 km × 2 km wind speed). 2. We examine whether neural operator layers provide unique advantages when testing downscaling models on upsampling factors higher than those seen during training, i.e., zero-shot downscaling. Our results instead show the surprising success of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with a parameter-free interpolation step at zero-shot weather downscaling. 3. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms all neural operator models in terms of average error metrics, whereas an enhanced super-resolution generative adversarial network (ESRGAN)-based approach is better than most models in capturing the physics of the system, and suggests their use in future work as strong baselines. However, these approaches still do not capture variations at smaller spatial scales well, including the physical characteristics of turbulence in the HR data. This suggests a potential for improvement in transformer or GAN-based methods and neural-operator-based methods for zero-shot weather downscaling.

Sinha, Saumya [National Renewable Energy Laborator↗

CROCUS Weather Data at Northeastern Illinois University Rooftop

This dataset is from the Department of Energy Office of Science funded project, Community Research on Urban and Climate Science (CROCUS) (https://crocus-urban.org/). Vaisala WXT sensor is an all-in-one weather instrument that provides 6 of the most important weather parameters: barometric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed and direction. Temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and rainfall are sampled at 1 second frequency, while wind speed/direction is measured at ten per second (10Hz) frequency. These measurements are useful for looking at characterizing local weather, identifying unique weather events, and studying local turbulence, especially given the high temporal resolution of the wind measurements.Datasets are stored in the netCDF data format, and we we encourage users to make use the associated toolkits available from Unidata (https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/netcdf/), Project Pythia (https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html), and our “Instrument Cookbooks” (https://crocus-urban.github.io/instrument-cookbooks) for more information on how to process the metadata-rich datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Screening analysis of enhanced weathering of igneous rocks and industrial waste materials

Enhanced weathering (EW) is a promising emerging carbon dioxide removal approach that involves harnessing and accelerating the natural weathering process by which atmospheric CO2 passively reacts with exposed alkaline minerals and is removed from the atmosphere. This manuscript reports on a screening level techno-economic analysis of EW. Two primary cases utilizing different sources of alkaline material are considered: (1) utilizing naturally occurring mined igneous rocks, and (2) utilizing industrial waste materials. The modeled EW process encompasses material purchase, comminution, transport, distribution of material on farmland, and measurement, reporting and verification of CO2 removal. Detailed sensitivities are performed to highlight promising scenarios for application. The analysis highlights that utilizing materials with high weathering potential in suitable locations may result in relatively low levelized cost of captured (less than $100 per total tonnes of CO2 captured from the atmosphere). NETL is publishing a detailed and transparent report titled “Enhanced Weathering: Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Screening Analysis” that includes more detail on the screening level techno-economic analysis and includes a life cycle analysis.

Leptinsky, Sarah [NETL Site Support Contractor, Na↗

The Natural Enrichment of Stable Cesium in Weathered Micaceous Materials and Its Implications for 137Cs Sorption.

In this exploratory project, we are testing two interrelated hypotheses about the sorption of Cs within weathered micaceous materials in subsurface regolith materials from the Savannah River Site (SRS) located on the Atlantic Coastal Plain: 1) that stable cesium has become significantly enriched relative to potassium in subsurface micaceous particles as a result of chemical weathering processes; and 2) that the Cs so present is sufficient to be a major factor determining the ability of the subsurface materials to take up and hold 137 Cs. To test these hypotheses, we collected by hand augur soil samples corresponding to soils representative at the SRS: upland regolith (Fuquay series); soils formed on Tobacco Road Sandstone; and, soils formed on Quaternary Alluvium. From our data, the quantification of the amounts of stable cesium concentrated in various sites within 2:1 phyllosilicates by natural processes is highly relevant toward understanding the future sorption of 137 Cs by the mica, illite, vermiculite, and hydroxyl interstratified vermiculite (HIV) phases present in the subsurface at and in proximity to SRS. Studying sorption and fixation of Cs in these micaceous phases interlayers potentially leads to increased knowledge to the extent that stable Cs resists exchange with ion exchange cations (Mg, NH4, or even alkyl ammonium compounds) and to the extent that Cs can become fixed over the long term. Such knowledge will help in the development of 137 Cs remediation strategies for the long-term, which is a critical aspect of the SBR goals. We characterized the mineralogy, K-Ar ages of the soil and soil clay fractions (before and after acid treatment), and alkali element chemistry (K, Rb, Cs) of the clay fractions of soils collected from these three different types of soils. The clay fractions of the Fuquay soils are composed of kaolinite, and hydroxy interstratified vermiculite (HIV). Kaolinite, HIV, quartz, gibbsite and illite are found in the quaternary soils. Leach experiments using 10% nitric acid and 50% nitric acid were performed on 62 mesh fractions to show the amounts of Cs and Rb relative to K (Cs/K, Rb/K) that are exchangeable in these soils compared to Coastal Plain micas and upper continental crust. The Cs/K and Rb/K of the leachates are considerably higher relative to both upper continental crust and relative to weathered micas found in Georgia Coast Plain sediments. The K-Ar ages of the clay fractions of five different SRS soil series were ca. 320 Ma. After leaching with nitric acid, the ages of the soil clay fractions were approximately the same as the unleached soil clays. Based on the similarity of these ages to the ages of Coastal Plain micas, the K and Ar remaining after treatment is believed to be enclosed in a relect mica in the HIV phases in the soils. The HIV is likely a mica-HIV intergrade. Based on these data, stable cesium has become significantly enriched relative to potassium in subsurface micaceous particles as a result of chemical weathering processes in the SRS Fuquay soils studied thus far. Our data permit the interpretation describing the sorption of Cs and Rb in an apex site or in a hard to reach hard-to-exchange sorption site during pedogenesis. In terms of testing the second hypothesis, our work is ongoing and we report some preliminary data on Cs-137 and Rb-85 exchange experiments on select SRS Fuquay soils (-2 mm). Our isotopic equilibration experiments using Cs and Rb isotopes in separate exchange experiments show only small amounts of Cs and Rb in the original sample is exchangeable isotopically for a period of a few weeks in acidified conditions. The isotope exchange experiments provide support for our interpretation that pedogenically accumulated Cs (and Rb) occupy sites that are unavailable to exchange or exchange slowly in acid conditions corresponding to present conditions in SRS soils. In more basic solutions, greater exchange isotopic exchange is noted and suggests an expansion of interlayer sites thereby permitting more isotopic exchange of Cs and Rb.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Release of aged contaminants from weathered sediments: Effects of sorbate speciation on scaling of reactive transport

Hanford sediments impacted by hyperalkaline high level radioactive waste have undergone incongruent silicate mineral weathering concurrent with contaminant uptake. In this project, we studied the impact of background pore water (BPW) on strontium, cesium and iodine desorption and transport in Hanford sediments that were experimentally weathered by contact with simulated hyperalkaline tank waste leachate (STWL) solutions. Using those lab-weathered Hanford sediments (HS) and model precipitates formed during nucleation from homogeneous STWL solutions (HN), we (i) provided thorough characterization of reaction products over a matrix of field-relevant gradients in contaminant concentration, partial pressure of carbon dioxide, and reaction time; (ii) improved molecular-scale understanding of how sorbate speciation controls contaminant desorption from weathered sediments upon removal of caustic sources; and (iii) developed a mechanistic, predictive model of meso- to field-scale contaminant reactive transport under these conditions. In this final report, we provide detailed descriptions of our results from this three-year study, completed in 2012 following a one-year no cost extension.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assessing the Potential of Social Networks as a Means for Information Diffusion the Weatherization Experiences (WE) Project.

In April 2009, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) formally tasked Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) with conducting two impact and process evaluations of DOE’s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), known as the retrospective and American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) period evaluations, respectively. The former focused on WAP Program Year (PY) 2008, which covers the period from April 2008 to June 2009. The latter focused on PY 2010. This report presents in-depth analyses from ORNL’s social network study, the Weatherization Experiences (WE) Project, an exploratory study conducted as part of the ARRA period WAP evaluation. The WE Project explored the potential for WAP recipients and staff to influence energy savings beyond their homes and day jobs. Several studies conducted through ORNL’s evaluation of WAP found that the program has the ability to profoundly impact the lives of the people it serves (Tonn et al. 2014b). Recipients of WAP provided statements ranging from the newfound ability to pay utility bills and prescription medication to reduced emergency department visits for asthma and medical conditions associated with thermal stress. Through this exploratory research project, the stories of hundreds of weatherization recipients and providers were documented. The WE Project was designed to further investigate whether or not shared experiences with weatherization have the power to stimulate home energy saving action within an individual’s social network.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Physical Protection System Effectiveness for a Hypothetical Small Modular Reactor Facility: Systems Analysis and Considerations

This report will summarize the group's work to provide recommendations to secure nuclear facilities before, during and after an extreme weather event. Extreme weather events can have drastic impacts to nuclear facilities as seen by the earthquake and subsequent tsunami at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011. Recent hurricanes in the United States including Hurricane Harvey demonstrate the devastating effects these storms can have on infrastructure and the surrounding communities. The group is attempting to identify the gaps that potential small modular reactor (SMR) facilities will need to address in order to provide adequate site security before, during and after extreme weather events. This effort proceeded in three parts to provide insights and recommendations to secure Small Modular Reactor facilities for extreme weather events:(1) a literature review of academic articles as well as relevant documents including the existing regulatory framework and recommendations from the IAEA, NRC, and DOE, (2) subject matter expert interviews from a wide variety of security backgrounds, and (3) modeling and simulation on a hypothetical SMR facility. Special attention was paid to the interactions between stakeholders and nuclear facility design considerations, particularly the topics of safety and security. Engineering design issues from safety and security perspectives were discussed and included in simulation. Each step informed the proceeding, with the result including full tabletop scenarios of EWE impacts to security system effectiveness on the hypothetical model. This systems-level analysis provides results to inform recommendations to secure SMR facilities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Techno-Economic Screening Analysis of CO2 Removal Through Enhanced Weathering

Terrestrial enhanced weathering has emerged as a technology of interest due to its simplicity, low energy requirement, and potentially low capital investment requirement. Due to the novelty of this technology, there is limited literature exploring the techno-economics of the process. This presentation reports on a screening techno-economic analysis that examines the impact of key factors that influence terrestrial enhanced weathering performance and cost. Two cases are considered for analysis, based on the material used: (1) Naturally occurring mined igneous rock (2) Industrial waste materials (like biomass ash or cement kiln dust) The analysis considers locating the terrestrial enhanced weathering system in the Midwestern United States, because of proximity to alkaline materials, availability of farmland, and appropriate ambient conditions for weathering. For the igneous rock case, the size of the system is based on the average amount of igneous rock available from a single mine—250,000 tonnes/year. For the industrial waste case, the size of the system is based on the amount of suitable waste material produced by an industrial hub—150,000 tonnes/year.

Leptinsky, Sarah↗

Screening Analysis of Terrestrial Enhanced Rock Weathering of Igneous Rocks and Industrial Waste Materials

This poster, presented at the 17th Greenhouse Gas Control Technology Conference, reports on an NETL screening level techno-economic assessment of enhanced weathering (EW). EW is a promising emerging carbon dioxide removal approach that involves harnessing and accelerating the natural weathering process by which atmospheric CO2 passively reacts with exposed alkaline minerals and is removed from the atmosphere. Two primary cases utilizing different sources of alkaline material are considered: (1) utilizing naturally occurring mined igneous rocks, and (2) utilizing industrial waste materials. The analysis highlights that utilizing materials with high weathering potential in suitable locations may result in relatively low levelized cost of captured. NETL is publishing a detailed and transparent report titled “Enhanced Weathering: Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Screening Analysis” that includes more detail on the screening level techno-economic analysis and includes a life cycle analysis.

carbon dioxide removal↗