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Infrared Optical Constants from Pressed Pellets of Powders: I. Improved n and k Values of (NH4)(2)SO(4)from Single-Angle Reflectance

In combination with other parameters, the real, n(?), and imaginary, k(?), components of the complex refractive index, = n + ik, can be used to simulate the optical properties of a material in different forms, e.g. its infrared spectra. But obtaining reliable values of the optical constants n/k for solid materials is challenging due to the lack of optical quality specimens, usually crystals, large enough to measure. An alternative to crystals is to press the powder into a uniform disk. We have produced pellets from ammonium sulfate, (NH4)2SO4, powder and derived the pellets’ n and k values via single-angle reflectance using a specular reflectance device in combination with a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer. The single-angle technique measures amplitude of light reflected from the material as a function of wavelength over a wide spectral domain; the optical constants are determined from the reflectance data using the Kramers-Kronig relationship. We investigate several parameters associated with the pellets and pellet formation and their effects upon delivering the most reliable n/k values. Parameters studied include pellet diameter, mass and density (void space), drying, grinding, sieving and particle size in the pellet formation, as well as pressing pressure and duration. Of these parameters, using size-selected mixtures of dried, small (< 100 µm) particles and pressing at = 10 tons for at least 30 minutes were found key to forming highly reflective samples. Comparison to two sets of previous literature n(?) and k(?) values obtained from crystalline (NH4)2SO4 both as crystal reflectance as well as extinction spectra of aerosols measured in a flow tube show reasonable agreement, but suggests the present values, as confirmed from two independent techniques, represent a substantial improvement for n/k values for (NH4)2SO4, also demonstrating promise to measure the optical constants of other materials.

Optical constants, index of refraction, single-ang↗

Business Models for Scaling Demand Flexibility Volume I – Value proposition characteristics, challenges, and lessons learned from U.S. programs

Load growth at the grid edge is driving increased attention to the distribution system and its ability to enable customer technology adoption in an affordable and timely manner. Key industry stakeholders, including electric utilities and regulators, can benefit from strategies to manage and balance customer needs with infrastructure investments, such as demand flexibility. This report focuses on demand flexibility—the ability to reduce, shift, shed, generate, or modulate loads in response to building and grid needs—to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades by deferring investment needs and increase system reliability by shifting electricity usage during periods of high risk. Specifically, we focus on the emerging characteristics of business models for demand flexibility as a framework to understand how demand flexibility programs generate value. In this report, we focus on demand flexibility value propositions, which provide information on value creation and describe how programs deliver clear benefits that address customer and grid needs. This report discusses the role of value propositions in demand flexibility programs, provides an overview of value propositions for a range of demand flexibility stakeholders, identifies existing challenges to establishing an effective value proposition, and describes lessons learned. This report is part of a series that includes reports on customer relationship management strategies, stakeholder ecosystem management, and program life cycle.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A New Appraisal- Lessons from the History of Efforts to Value Green and High-Performance Home Attributes in the United States

Rigorous consideration of green and high-performance (“green/HP”) features is rarely included in the property valuation process._ To help illuminate why this is the case, this report takes stock of the history of efforts to improve practices, and identifies barriers that have emerged and opportunities for overcoming them. Particular emphasis is placed on what energy and environmental policymakers and other stakeholders outside the appraisal community can contribute to the broader effort to advance professional practices. The history has unfolded in parallel with turbulent periods in the housing market for which appraisers and their customers are deemed to share responsibility, followed by cycles of regulations, siloing of appraisers in the name of professional integrity, and commoditization of the valuation process itself. This pattern has important ramifications for aspirations that appraisers engage more fully in identifying and valuing the green/HP characteristics of homes. On the one hand, it is legally and ethically incumbent on appraisers to do so, yet on the other hand it is perceived as a risky avenue to follow. Risks arise where findings can be challenged as either over- or under-stating value, together with a market environment in which the complexity of their assignments increases despite downward pressure on appraiser fees. While efforts to address green/HP considerations date back to the early 1980s, the vast majority of activity has taken place within the past five years. Many players have engaged in the efforts to promote improved valuation practices. These include the Appraisal Foundation, The Appraisal Institute, Colorado Energy Office, Earth Advantage, EcoBroker, Elevate Energy, Fannie Mae, Federal Housing Administration, Home Innovation Research Labs, The Institute for Market Transformation, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, National Association of Homebuilders, National Association of State Energy Officials, National Association of Appraisers, RESNET, USEPA, USDOE and its National Laboratories, the U.S. Green Buildings Council, and the Vermont Green Homes Alliance. Many activities have resulted, ranging from trainings, to data-gathering instruments, and the emergence of a literature attempting to statistically isolate the effects of green/HP characteristics on home values. In some cases, the results of studies have been overgeneralized and oversold, and embodied flawed methods. Although the green/HP community has encouraged appraisers to focus on exemplary buildings (e.g., LEED or ENERGY STAR Certified), any level of green or energy performance can in fact influence value, including below-average performance (a.k.a. “brown discount”), irrespective of whether or not the building has been formally rated. This overly narrow focus represents a significant missed opportunity. Other surmountable challenges include limitations to non-appraisers’ understanding of the appraisal process (and practical constraints therein). A byproduct of this can be unrealistic expectations of what appraisers can and will do in the marketplace. These challenges notwithstanding, the environment for moving forward has improved. There is better data today (a critical need); expanded efforts to disclose energy use information (characteristics, consumption, bills); improved and more pervasive building energy codes, building rating and labeling initiatives; and a host of federal, state, and local policies that have collectively brought green/HP practices much more into the mainstream. Meanwhile, a renewed focus on professional standards of care and competency for assessing green/HP homes make it increasingly important for appraisers to consider these factors in their assignments. Despite the past four decades of studies, there is little if any discernible uptake of these practices by the appraisal practice at large. It would behoove interested parties to step back and consider what new strategies might be productive. A key element of any new plan should be to reset the nature of interactions with the industry, with the goal a more collaborative, two-way discussion to help improve outsiders’ understanding of the valuation process. It is not only the appraiser that needs to be engaged and could benefit from awareness raising. Homeowners, builders, lenders, utilities, insurance companies should also provide input on how green/HP factors impact property valuations and ways to accurately reflect these considerations in appraisals and real estate transactions more broadly. Given extensive inertia within the appraisal industry and a mixed history of interactions with the non-appraisal stakeholders, it is unlikely that the status quo will achieve much unless followed with more coordinated and persistent efforts. Workshops, studies, and memoranda of understanding will not on their own have much impact, and do not address deeper structural issues. Expectations are often unrealistic and not attentive to real-world constraints faced by appraisers. The report identifies key barriers impeding more thorough consideration of green/HP factors in residential real estate appraisals, and solutions for mitigating them. Barriers • Although industry standards of practice caution against bias of any sort, a skeptical predisposition towards “green” is reinforced by information deficiencies. • Information deficiencies result from the lack or difficulty of obtaining usable data on green/HP features in subject properties as well as valid sales comparisons or cashflow analyses. • Competency deficiencies, such as lack of conversancy in relevant technical topics, leads to oversights, and disjointed treatment of relevant information. • Time/cost pressure and process commoditization (e.g., template-based approaches) result from highly constrained budgets, quick turn-around times expected of appraisers, and standardized practices that were not developed with green/HP considerations in mind. • Professional differences between appraisers and sustainability professionals include divergent objectives, the former being market observers and the latter market influencers. • Risk aversion arises from multiple concerns including veracity, accuracy, and persistence of energy data, impacts of operational choices, new sources of appraiser liability associated with green/HP assessments, industry pressures not to over-value buildings or suggestion of bias, and concern about spending non-billable time on complex assignments. • A public policy vacuum has been created by disjointed and uncoordinated efforts from public-sector stakeholders, insufficient efforts to discuss and understand the appraisal industry and process, and a perception by some valuation professionals that green/HP is oversold. Opportunities • Elevating the competency of appraisers can be achieved through a combination of improved industry standards of care and equal-access training and professional development offerings. • Development of better information resources must focus on building-level information that provides robust documentation as well as aggregate sales-comparison data and other contextual information such as local codes, typical upgrade costs, energy prices, etc. • Improved energy benchmarking and rating tools could provide appraisers with information more well-adapted to their particular needs, which differ from those of typical audiences such as energy managers. • Better characterizing and managing risk will enable appraisers to cope with uncertainties in performance information, and help identify where risks may be introduced or mitigated by green/HP features, including higher costs or obsolescence of poorly-performing buildings. • Integrating disaster resilience and sustainability in appraisals would recognize important synergisms among these features, including durability and ability of green/HP buildings to better withstand external hazards. • Mitigating the problem of additional time/cost for performing assignments is an essential need that can be addressed by providing easier access to information and analytic procedures, perhaps coupled with new resources to defray the associated costs. • Enhancing demand for improved appraisals is a fundamental need, and depends on owners, developers, lenders, and others soliciting competent appraisers to perform scopes that expressly call out green/HP considerations, and to critically review the work product for compliance before acceptance. • Engaging new market participants, such as energy utilities and insurance companies can ensure fuller representation and participation of market stakeholders already engaged in green/HP activities and capable of furnishing valuable data and managing associated risks. Cutting across these individual activities, there is a need for outside stakeholders to formulate and follow a roadmap instead of piecemeal initiatives, bridging the professional/cultural divide between appraisers and green/HP communities, and tracking progress in order to know what is working. A more coherent communication and training strategy is needed, as the appraisal industry is highly fragmented, with two-thirds of appraisers opting out of membership in trade associations. In sum, while there is no silver bullet for advancing the practice of valuing green/HP features, there are concrete opportunities. Parties seeking solutions must identify barriers they wish to address and select from among potential initiatives that map to those barriers. Close collaboration with the appraisal community is critical, as non-appraisers have historically obtained limited traction with this industry due to lack of understanding of the nuances involved in the valuation profession. Large organizations and agencies should have a united approach; the perception or reality of a fragmented and uncoordinated strategy is unsettling for prospective partners in the appraisal industry. This requires improved communication and education within and among these communities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Technetium, Iodine, and Chromium Adsorption/Desorption Kd Values for Vadose Zone Pore Water, ILAW Glass, and Cast Stone Leachates Contacting an IDF Sand Sequence

Performance and risk assessments of immobilized low-activity waste (ILAW) at the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF) have shown that risks to groundwater are quite sensitive to adsorption-desorption interactions occurring in the near- and far-field environment. These interactions between the underlying sediments and the contaminants present in the leachates that descend from the buried glass, secondary waste grouts, and potentially Cast Stone low-activity waste packages have been represented in these assessments using the contaminant distribution coefficient (Kd) construct. Some contaminants (99Tc, 129I, and Cr) present in significant quantities in these wastes have low Kd values and tend to drive risk to public health and the environment. Relatively small changes in the Kd value can cause relatively large changes in the retardation factor. Thus, even relatively small uncertainty in the Kd value can result in a relatively large uncertainty in the risk determined through performance assessment modeling. The purpose of this study is to further reduce the uncertainty in Kd values for 99Tc, iodine (iodide and iodate), and Cr (chromate; CrO42-) by conducting systematic adsorption-desorption experiments using actual sand-dominated Hanford formation sediments from beneath the IDF and solutions that closely mimic Hanford vadose zone pore water and leachates from Cast Stone and ILAW glass waste forms. Twenty-four batch and 21 flow-through column experiments were conducted, yielding 261 Kd measurements for these key contaminants, and contributing to our understanding for predicting transport from wastes disposed to the IDF. While the batch Kd methodology is not well-suited for measuring Kd values for non-sorbing species (as noted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), the batch Kd results presented here are not wholly inconsistent with the column Kd results, and could be used for sensitivity purposes. Results from the column experiments are consistent with the best estimate and lower range of Kd values reported by Krupka et al. and Cantrell et al.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Time-Varying Value of Energy Efficiency in Michigan

Quantifying the time-varying value of energy efficiency is necessary to properly account for all of its benefits and costs and to identify and implement efficiency resources that contribute to a low-cost, reliable electric system. Historically, most quantification of the benefits of efficiency has focused largely on the economic value of annual energy reduction. Due to the lack of statistically representative metered end-use load shape data in Michigan (i.e., the hourly or seasonal timing of electricity savings), the ability to confidently characterize the time-varying value of energy efficiency savings in the state, especially for weather-sensitive measures such as central air conditioning, is limited. Still, electric utilities in Michigan can take advantage of opportunities to incorporate the time-varying value of efficiency into their planning. For example, end-use load research and hourly valuation of efficiency savings can be used for a variety of electricity planning functions, including load forecasting, demand-side management and evaluation, capacity planning, long-term resource planning, renewable energy integration, assessing potential grid modernization investments, establishing rates and pricing, and customer service (KEMA 2012). In addition, accurately calculating the time-varying value of efficiency may help energy efficiency program administrators prioritize existing offerings, set incentive or rebate levels that reflect the full value of efficiency, and design new programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Key findings from this year’s report include: -18.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2023, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 80.2 GWAC across 47 states. Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to -$\$1.43$/WAC (or $\$1.08$/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010. Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 6% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. -Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new 2023 projects increased slightly to $\$46$/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $\$31$/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $\$35$/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). -Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $\$45$/MWh in 2023. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($\$27$/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($\$67$/MWh). -Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $\$1.1$ billion in benefits. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $\$15$/MWh more market value than their costs in 2023. -Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $\$13.7$ billion in net benefits in 2023. We estimate U.S. health benefits of $\$24$/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $\$101$/MWh. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Deployment of 52 new PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from more than 100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -Looking ahead, a massive pipeline of at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity dominates the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built. -For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Effects of initial delamination on CIc and GIth values from glass/epoxy double cantilever beam tests

The effect of insert thickness and method of precracking on mode I interlaminar fracture toughness, GIc, and delamination fatigue threshold, GIth, values were determined for a glass/epoxy double cantilever beam specimen. The results of the static tests showed that precracking in tension would cause fiber bridging and thus may yield unconservative values of GIc and GIth. Precracking in shear yields suitable values of GIc but overly conservative values of GIth. For the glass/epoxy composite used, an insert thickness of 0.5 mil was most suitable for determining GIc and GIth values, although an insert thickness up to 3 mil was acceptable. Inserts thicker than 3 mil were not acceptable for determining GIc and GIth values.

Martin, Roderick H.↗

Decision theory for computing variable and value ordering decisions for scheduling problems

Heuristics that guide search are critical when solving large planning and scheduling problems, but most variable and value ordering heuristics are sensitive to only one feature of the search state. One wants to combine evidence from all features of the search state into a subjective probability that a value choice is best, but there has been no solid semantics for merging evidence when it is conceived in these terms. Instead, variable and value ordering decisions should be viewed as problems in decision theory. This led to two key insights: (1) The fundamental concept that allows heuristic evidence to be merged is the net incremental utility that will be achieved by assigning a value to a variable. Probability distributions about net incremental utility can merge evidence from the utility function, binary constraints, resource constraints, and other problem features. The subjective probability that a value is the best choice is then derived from probability distributions about net incremental utility. (2) The methods used for rumor control in Bayesian Networks are the primary way to prevent cycling in the computation of probable net incremental utility. These insights lead to semantically justifiable ways to compute heuristic variable and value ordering decisions that merge evidence from all available features of the search state.

Linden, Theodore A.↗

Effects of expected-value information and display format on recognition of aircraft subsystem abnormalities

This study identifies improved methods to present system parameter information for detecting abnormal conditions and to identify system status. Two workstation experiments were conducted. The first experiment determined if including expected-value-range information in traditional parameter display formats affected subject performance. The second experiment determined if using a nontraditional parameter display format, which presented relative deviation from expected value, was better than traditional formats with expected-value ranges included. The inclusion of expected-value-range information onto traditional parameter formats was found to have essentially no effect. However, subjective results indicated support for including this information. The nontraditional column deviation parameter display format resulted in significantly fewer errors compared with traditional formats with expected-value-ranges included. In addition, error rates for the column deviation parameter display format remained stable as the scenario complexity increased, whereas error rates for the traditional parameter display formats with expected-value ranges increased. Subjective results also indicated that the subjects preferred this new format and thought that their performance was better with it. The column deviation parameter display format is recommended for display applications that require rapid recognition of out-of-tolerance conditions, especially for a large number of parameters.

Palmer, Michael T.↗

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 48: Valuing information in an interactive environment

Consideration effort has been devoted over the past 30 years to developing methods and means of assessing the value of information. Two approaches - value in exchange and value in use - dominate; however, neither approach enjoys much practical application because validation schema for decision-making is missing. The approaches fail to measure objectively the real costs of acquiring information and the real benefits that information will yield. Moreover, these approaches collectively fail to provide economic justification to build and/or continue to support an information product or service. In addition, the impact of Cyberspace adds a new dimension to the problem. A new paradigm is required to make economic sense in this revolutionary information environment. In previous work, the authors explored the various approaches to measuring the value of information and concluded that, in large measure, these methods were unworkable concepts and constructs. Instead, they proposed several axioms for valuing information. Most particularly they concluded that the 'value of information cannot be measured in the absence of a specific task, objective, or goal.' This paper builds on those axioms and describes under which circumstances information can be measured in objective and actionable terms. This paper also proposes a methodology for undertaking such measures and validating the results.

Brinberg, Herbert R.↗

Probability Distribution Estimated From the Minimum, Maximum, and Most Likely Values: Applied to Turbine Inlet Temperature Uncertainty

Modern engineering design practices are tending more toward the treatment of design parameters as random variables as opposed to fixed, or deterministic, values. The probabilistic design approach attempts to account for the uncertainty in design parameters by representing them as a distribution of values rather than as a single value. The motivations for this effort include preventing excessive overdesign as well as assessing and assuring reliability, both of which are important for aerospace applications. However, the determination of the probability distribution is a fundamental problem in reliability analysis. A random variable is often defined by the parameters of the theoretical distribution function that gives the best fit to experimental data. In many cases the distribution must be assumed from very limited information or data. Often the types of information that are available or reasonably estimated are the minimum, maximum, and most likely values of the design parameter. For these situations the beta distribution model is very convenient because the parameters that define the distribution can be easily determined from these three pieces of information. Widely used in the field of operations research, the beta model is very flexible and is also useful for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a random variable given only the aforementioned three values. However, an assumption is required to determine the four parameters of the beta distribution from only these three pieces of information (some of the more common distributions, like the normal, lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions, have two or three parameters). The conventional method assumes that the standard deviation is a certain fraction of the range. The beta parameters are then determined by solving a set of equations simultaneously. A new method developed in-house at the NASA Glenn Research Center assumes a value for one of the beta shape parameters based on an analogy with the normal distribution (ref.1). This new approach allows for a very simple and direct algebraic solution without restricting the standard deviation. The beta parameters obtained by the new method are comparable to the conventional method (and identical when the distribution is symmetrical). However, the proposed method generally produces a less peaked distribution with a slightly larger standard deviation (up to 7 percent) than the conventional method in cases where the distribution is asymmetric or skewed. The beta distribution model has now been implemented into the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) module used in the NESSUS computer code for probabilistic analyses of structures (ref. 2).

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗

The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

climate change↗

System Value Model of a Launch Vehicle

System value provides a mathematical representation of stakeholder’s preferences for the system. System value represents the utility that the system provides to the stakeholders. For a launch vehicle, important values are revenue generated through successful payloads, mission reliability, and the ability to accommodate payloads without modification to the payload instruments or spacecraft bus. This paper considers the value provided by a heavy lift launch vehicle to the satellite industry and to human exploration. An estimate is developed for a generic launch vehicle value in terms of impact to the Gross Domestic Product. Thermo-economics are applied in the calculation of system value. Mission reliability considers both successful delivery and on time delivery (i.e., operational availability). Payload accommodation considers mainly the diameter of the payload fairing for various types of missions.

Barth, Andrew↗

Assessing the Added Value of Miniature X-Ray in the Setting of Portable Ultrasound in Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION: Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) has become the standard of care for imaging diagnosis and management in low-Earth Orbit (LEO) spaceflight and it has long been hypothesized that POCUS will also be the standard of care for exploration spaceflight. However, like the trajectory for which ultrasound became more portable and user-friendly, the mass, volume, and power requirements of radiography devices for both diagnostic and therapeutic applications have also been dramatically reduced. This study seeks to determine the clinical utility and added value of miniature x-ray (XR) for the diagnosis and management of each of the 119 conditions within NASA Exploration Medical Capability’s IMPACT Condition List (ICL) given that the medical system is presumed to already be carrying a handheld portable POCUS device. METHODS: For each condition, a team of reviewers performed a rapid systematic literature review seeking sensitivity and specificity data for both handheld portable ultrasound and miniature XR. When there was a paucity of data, subject matter expertise and clinical experience was added to semi-quantitatively score the added value of miniature XR, given an US was already available for both diagnosis and management. Diagnostic utility of a modality for a condition was evaluated in the setting of both the best- and worst-case scenario definitions included and defined by the ICL. Evidence tracing and quality of evidence scores were also recorded. RESULTS/DISCUSSION: Conditions for which it was determined that miniature XR added diagnostic or therapeutic value are provided in this presentation. Previously presented work by our team has demonstrated that XR provides diagnostic and management capabilities that are hypothesized to complement or surpass ultrasound for over one-third of medical conditions that may arise during exploration spaceflight (i.e., diagnosis of injuries to the axial skeleton, teeth, and lungs as well as management of orthopedic reductions, endotracheal tube placement, and drain placement confirmation). In the setting of known inclusion of a handheld portable POCUS device, there remains significant added value of portable miniature XR. Whether or not this added clinical benefit is worth the mass, volume, and power requirements of the radiography system remains yet unknown and is the focus of future work. LEARNING OBJECTIVES: 1) Understand the value of ultrasound and radiography in the diagnosis and management of medical comorbidities that may arise in exploration spaceflight; 2) Understand the medical conditions of highest concern on exploration class missions for which miniature x-ray may provide added value to portable ultrasound.

J G Steller↗

Assessing the Added Value of Miniature X-Ray in the Setting of US in Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION: Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) has become the standard of care for imaging diagnosis and management in lowEarth Orbit (LEO) spaceflight and it has long been hypothesized that POCUS will also be the standard of care for exploration spaceflight. However, like the trajectory for which ultrasound became more portable and user-friendly, the mass, volume, and power requirements of radiography devices for both diagnostic and therapeutic applications have also been dramatically reduced. This study seeks to determine the clinical utility and added value of miniature x-ray (XR) for the diagnosis and management of each of the 119 conditions within NASA Exploration Medical Capability’s IMPACT Condition List (ICL) given that the medical system is presumed to already be carrying a handheld portable POCUS device. METHODS: For each condition, a team of reviewers performed a rapid systematic literature review seeking sensitivity and specificity data for both handheld portable ultrasound and miniature XR. When there was a paucity of data, subject matter expertise and clinical experience was added to semi-quantitatively score the added value of miniature XR, given an US was already available for both diagnosis and management. Diagnostic utility of a modality for a condition was evaluated in the setting of both the best- and worst-case scenario definitions included and defined by the ICL. Evidence tracing and quality of evidence scores were also recorded. RESULTS/DISCUSSION: Conditions for which it was determined that miniature XR added diagnostic or therapeutic value are provided in this presentation. Previously presented work by our team has demonstrated that XR provides diagnostic and management capabilities that are hypothesized to complement or surpass ultrasound for over one-third of medical conditions that may arise during exploration spaceflight (i.e., diagnosis of injuries to the axial skeleton, teeth, and lungs as well as management of orthopedic reductions, endotracheal tube placement, and drain placement confirmation). In the setting of known inclusion of a handheld portable POCUS device, there remains significant added value of portable miniature XR. Whether or not this added clinical benefit is worth the mass, volume, and power requirements of the radiography system remains yet unknown and is the focus of future work. LEARNING OBJECTIVES: 1) Understand the value of ultrasound and radiography in the diagnosis and management of medical comorbidities that may arise in exploration spaceflight; 2) Understand the medical conditions of highest concern on exploration class missions for which miniature x-ray may provide added value to portable ultrasound.

Jon Steller↗

Store operation with conditional push of a tag value to a queue

According to one embodiment, a method for a store operation with a conditional push of a tag value to a queue is provided. The method includes configuring a queue that is accessible by an application, setting a value at an address in a memory device including a memory and a controller, receiving a request for an operation using the value at the address and performing the operation. The method also includes the controller writing a result of the operation to the address, thus changing the value at the address, the controller determining if the result of the operation meets a condition and the controller pushing a tag value to the queue based on the condition being met, where the tag value in the queue indicates to the application that the condition is met.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Value of Information in Fuel Cycle Decision-making

Transitions between nuclear fuel cycles with uncertain key parameters (e.g., SNF and HLW disposal costs, fast reactor capital costs) have been examined using a decision-making under uncertainty methodology. The methodology explicitly incorporates uncertainties in key parameters into the decision-making process by constructing a stochastic model and embedding uncertainties as bifurcations in the decision-tree. The framework of this methodology allows for interpretation using a real options valuation or game theoretic approach, reviewed in. The work presented here extends the decision-making under uncertainty framework to calculate the value of information, which may be used to inform a game against nature. These games against nature have been applied to resource allocation problems, where scarce resources are allocated to maximize expected payoffs. More broadly, the value of developing alternative technologies may be considered under the same framework, where an investment portfolio for technology deployment may be developed. Here, the value of information is taken as the value of reducing uncertainty in key parameters, and these values may be substituted for the traditional payoff matrix when considering allocating scarce resources. Games against nature may provide a unique perspective on R and D funding decisions when considering transitions between nuclear fuel cycles. By determining the value of reducing uncertainties (of gaining information on probability distributions) scarce resources may be allocated in such a way to maximize their utility. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗