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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Module 5: End Use Assessment - Lesson 5.1: Introduction to End Use Assessment [Slides]

End use assessment is the process of performing a technical evaluation of the stated end use in relation to the requested commodity and the activities of the end user. An end use assessment requires sufficiently detailed information on the procurement request, commodity technical specifications, end use conditions, end user business activities, industry norms and trends, and WMD or delivery system applications of stated end use. Reviewers should be aware of red flags related to end use assessment. Use best practices when writing an end use assessment. Be familiar with technical resources for end use assessments.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2.0

Abstract. Future changes in land use and cover have important implications for agriculture, energy, water use, and climate. Estimates of future land use and land cover differ significantly across economic models as a result of differences in drivers, model structure, and model parameters; however, these models often rely on heuristics to determine model parameters. In this study, we demonstrate a more systematic and empirically based approach to estimating a few key parameters for an economic model of land use and land cover change, gcamland. Specifically, we generate a large set of model parameter perturbations for the selected parameters and run gcamland simulations with these parameter sets over the historical period in the United States to quantify land use and land cover, determine how well the model reproduces observations, and identify parameter combinations that best replicate observations, assuming other model parameters are fixed. We also test alternate methods for forming expectations about uncertain crop yields and prices, including adaptive, perfect, linear, and hybrid approaches. In particular, we estimate parameters for six parameters used in the formation of expectations and three of seven logit exponents for the USA only. We find that an adaptive expectation approach minimizes the error between simulated outputs and observations, with parameters that suggest that for most crops, landowners put a significant weight on previous information. Interestingly, for corn, where ethanol policies have led to a rapid growth in demand, the resulting parameters show that a larger weight is placed on more recent information. We examine the change in model parameters as the metric of model error changes, finding that the measure of model fitness affects the choice of parameter sets. Finally, we discuss how the methodology and results used in this study could be used for other regions or economic models to improve projections of future land use and land cover change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty Quantification in Remaining Useful Life of Aerospace Components using State Space Models and Inverse FORM

This paper investigates the use of the inverse first-order reliability method (inverse- FORM) to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) of aerospace components. The prediction of remaining useful life is an integral part of system health prognosis, and directly helps in online health monitoring and decision-making. However, the prediction of remaining useful life is affected by several sources of uncertainty, and therefore it is necessary to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction. While system parameter uncertainty and physical variability can be easily included in inverse-FORM, this paper extends the methodology to include: (1) future loading uncertainty, (2) process noise; and (3) uncertainty in the state estimate. The inverse-FORM method has been used in this paper to (1) quickly obtain probability bounds on the remaining useful life prediction; and (2) calculate the entire probability distribution of remaining useful life prediction, and the results are verified against Monte Carlo sampling. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a numerical example.

Sankararaman, Shankar↗

DOE OSTI2011

Using Wireless Power Meters to Measure Energy Use of Miscellaneous and Electronic Devices in Buildings

Miscellaneous and electronic devices consume about one-third of the primary energy used in U.S. buildings, and their energy use is increasing faster than other end-uses. Despite the success of policies, such as Energy Star, that promote more efficient miscellaneous and electronic products, much remains to be done to address the energy use of these devices if we are to achieve our energy and carbon reduction goals. Developing efficiency strategies for these products depends on better data about their actual usage, but very few studies have collected field data on the long-term energy used by a large sample of devices due to the difficulty and expense of collecting device-level energy data. This paper describes the development of an improved method for collecting device-level energy and power data using small, relatively inexpensive wireless power meters. These meters form a mesh network based on Internet standard protocols and can form networks of hundreds of metering points in a single building. Because the meters are relatively inexpensive and do not require manual data downloading, they can be left in the field for months or years to collect long time-series energy use data. In addition to the metering technology, we also describe a field protocol used to collect comprehensive, robust data on the miscellaneous and electronic devices in a building. The paper presents sample results from several case study buildings, in which all the plug-in devices for several homes were metered, and a representative sample of several hundred plug-in devices in a commercial office building were metered for several months.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Regionalization of land use impact models for life cycle assessment: Recommendations for their use on the global scale and their applicability to Brazil

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is the main technique for evaluate the environmental impacts of product life cycles. A major challenge in the field of LCA is spatial and temporal differentiation in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methods, especially impacts resulting from land occupation and land transformation. Land use characterization modeling has advanced considerably over the last two decades and many approaches have recently included crucial aspects such as geographic differentiation. Nevertheless, characterization models have so far not been systematically reviewed and evaluated to determine their applicability to South America. Given that Brazil is the largest country in South America, this paper analyzes the main international characterization models currently available in the literature, with a view to recommending regionalized models applicable on a global scale for land use life cycle impact assessments, and discusses their feasibility for regionalized assessment in Brazil. The analytical methodology involves classification based on the following criteria: midpoint/endpoint approach, scope of application, area of data collection, biogeographical differentiation, definition of recovery time and reference situation; followed by an evaluation of thirteen scientific robustness and environmental relevance subcriteria. The results of the scope of application are distributed among 25% of the models developed for the European context, and 50% have a global scope. There is no consensus in the literature about the definition of parameters such biogeographical differentiation and reference situation, and our review indicates that 35% of the models use ecoregion division while 40% use the concept of potential natural vegetation. Four characterization models show high scores in terms of scientific robustness and environmental relevance. These models are recommended for application in land use life cycle impact assessments, and also to serve as references for the development or adaptation of regional methodological procedures for Brazil. - Highlights: • A discussion is made on performing regionalized impact assessments using spatial differentiation in LCA. • A review is made of 20 characterization models for land use impacts in Life Cycle Impact Assessment. • Four characterization models are recommended according to different land use impact pathways for application in Brazil.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Life-cycle impact and exergy based resource use assessment of torrefied and non-torrefied briquette use for heat and electricity generation

Forest residue biomass can be used as bioenergy feedstock, however, issues associated with its properties including low density and high moisture content constrains its valorization. Using mobile conversion technologies that can operate in remote areas and are capable of converting forest residues into high quality energy products can address the issues associated with its valorization for renewable energy production. This study evaluated environmental sustainability of using an integrated novel system of semi-mobile biomass conversion technologies (BCTs) to utilize low-value forest residue biomass as high value bioenergy products. A cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment (LCA) and resource use assessment on a unit-process level was conducted for two bio-products: nontorrefied briquettes (NTB) and torrefied briquettes (TOB). Their use for production of useful thermal energy in wood stoves for domestic heating and electricity at power plants were investigated along with their alternatives. The analyses were performed with SimaPro 8.5 using the DATASMART database. The impact assessment results showed a notable decrease in global warming (GW) impact when substituting fossil fuels with these two bio-products. Specifically, for domestic heating on an equivalent energy basis, a 50% substitution of propane with NTB and TOB showed GHG emission reductions of 46% and 41%, respectively. For electricity generation, 10% cofiring at coal power plant with NTB and TOB showed GHG emission reductions of 6% and 8%, respectively. For the TOB supply chain, a large portion of the GW impact of the came from the torrefaction process and followed by the drying process. This was due to the propane use in these processes. Comparative analysis showed that near-woods biomass conversion for TOB production instead of processing feedstock at an in-town facility with access to grid electricity found 48%–55% lower GW impact for both electricity and heat generation scenarios, respectively. Resourced footprint analysis showed that most exergy extraction from the natural environment came from the drying process for NTB supply chain. In the TOB product system, torrefaction was the major contributor.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Single-pulse x-ray diffraction using polycapillary optics for in situ dynamic diffraction

Diagnostic use of single-pulse x-ray diffraction (XRD) at pulsed power facilities can be challenging due to factors such as the high flux and brightness requirements for diffraction and the geometric constraints of experimental platforms. By necessity, the x-ray source is usually positioned very close, within a few inches of the sample. On dynamic compression platforms, this puts the x-ray source in the debris field. We coupled x-ray polycapillary optics to a single-shot needle-and-washer x-ray diode source using a laser-based alignment scheme to obtain high-quality x-ray diffraction using a single 16 ns x-ray pulse with the source >1 m from the sample. Additionally, the system was tested on a Mo sample in reflection geometry using 17 keV x-rays from a Mo anode. We also identified an anode conditioning effect that increased the x-ray intensity by 180%. Quantitative measurements of the x-ray focal spot produced by the polycapillary yielded a total x-ray flux on the sample of 3.3 ± 0.5 × 10 7 molybdenum Kα photons.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2015

Change in terrestrial ecosystem water‐use efficiency over the last three decades

Abstract Defined as the ratio between gross primary productivity ( GPP ) and evapotranspiration ( ET ), ecosystem‐scale water‐use efficiency ( EWUE ) is an indicator of the adjustment of vegetation photosynthesis to water loss. The processes controlling EWUE are complex and reflect both a slow evolution of plants and plant communities as well as fast adjustments of ecosystem functioning to changes of limiting resources. In this study, we investigated EWUE trends from 1982 to 2008 using data‐driven models derived from satellite observations and process‐oriented carbon cycle models. Our findings suggest positive EWUE trends of 0.0056, 0.0007 and 0.0001 g C m −2 mm −1 yr −1 under the single effect of rising CO 2 (‘ CO 2 ’), climate change (‘ CLIM ’) and nitrogen deposition (‘ NDEP ’), respectively. Global patterns of EWUE trends under different scenarios suggest that (i) EWUE ‐ CO 2 shows global increases, (ii) EWUE ‐ CLIM increases in mainly high latitudes and decreases at middle and low latitudes, (iii) EWUE ‐ NDEP displays slight increasing trends except in west Siberia, eastern Europe, parts of North America and central Amazonia. The data‐driven MTE model, however, shows a slight decline of EWUE during the same period (−0.0005 g C m −2 mm −1 yr −1 ), which differs from process‐model (0.0064 g C m −2 mm −1 yr −1 ) simulations with all drivers taken into account. We attribute this discrepancy to the fact that the nonmodeled physiological effects of elevated CO 2 reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration ( TR ) in the MTE model. Partial correlation analysis between EWUE and climate drivers shows similar responses to climatic variables with the data‐driven model and the process‐oriented models across different ecosystems. Change in water‐use efficiency defined from transpiration‐based WUE t ( GPP / TR ) and inherent water‐use efficiency ( IWUE t , GPP × VPD / TR ) in response to rising CO 2 , climate change, and nitrogen deposition are also discussed. Our analyses will facilitate mechanistic understanding of the carbon–water interactions over terrestrial ecosystems under global change.

Huang, Mengtian↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Sustainable Product Design With Warranty and End-of-Use Considerations

The concept of integrated sustainable product design has recently emerged, aiming to incorporate downstream life cycle performance into the initial product design to enhance sustainability. Various sustainable product design tools based on life cycle assessment or quality function deployment have been established while the impact of reliability on circular practices has received limited attention. Recognizing the critical role of product reliability in post-design performance, this paper develops a product design optimization model that considers the warranty performance and the effect of end-of-use options. The model takes into account the effect of uncertain operating conditions on product reliability. Two optimization goals including the minimization of expected unit life cycle cost and environmental impact are achieved by the model. To demonstrate the benefits of the integrated approach, the model is applied to an electric motor design problem. The results highlight that integrating end-of-use options in the early design phase leads to adjustments in component selection and reliability design. Moreover, the circular utilization of used products enables cost savings throughout the product’s life cycle and contributes to environmental impact reduction. Finally, the study analyzes the effects of operating conditions, warranty policies, and take-back prices for used products on design decisions, providing valuable insights for product designers.

Integrated design↗

DOE OSTI2024

Biofuels Induced Land Use Change Emissions: The Role of Implemented Land Use Emission Factors

Biofuels’ induced land-use change (ILUC) emissions have been widely studied over the past 15 years. Many studies have addressed uncertainties associated with these estimates. These studies have broadly examined uncertainties associated with the choice of economic models, their assumptions and parameters, and a few bio-physical variables. However, uncertainties in land-use emission factors that represent the soil and vegetation carbon contents of various land types across the world and are used to estimate carbon fluxes due to land conversions are mostly overlooked. This paper calls attention to this important omission. It highlights some important sources of uncertainty in land-use emissions factors, explores the range in these factors from established data sources, and compares the influence of their variability on ILUC emissions for several sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathways. The estimated land-use changes for each pathway are taken from a well-known computable general equilibrium model, GTAP-BIO. Two well-known carbon calculator models (CCLUB and AEZ-EF) that represent two different sets of emissions factors are used to convert the GTAP-BIO estimated land-use changes to ILUC emissions. The results show that the calculated ILUC emissions obtained from these carbon calculators for each examined SAF pathway are largely different, even for the same amortization time horizon. For example, the ILUC emissions values obtained from the AEZ-EF and CCLUB models for producing jet fuel from corn ethanol for a 25-year amortization period are 24.9 gCO 2 e/MJ and 15.96 gCO 2 e/MJ, respectively. This represents a 60% difference between the results of these two carbon calculators for the same set of land-use changes. The results show larger differences for other pathways as well.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Quantitative Mapping of Nanoscale Chemical Dynamics in Sub-sampled Operando (S)TEM Images Using Spatio-Temporal Analytics

One of the main limitations in the use of operando scanning transmission electron microscopes to study dynamic chemical processes is the effect of the electron beam on the kinetics of the reaction being observed. Here we demonstrate that a flexible Gaussian mixture model can be used to extract quantitative information directly from sub-sampled images, i.e.~images where not all the pixels in the image are illuminated with the beam. The use of this method is demonstrated for the charge/discharge cycle of a Li-battery, where the deposition and dissolution of Li at the anode can be accurately quantified for sub-sampling levels down to 1%. Performing operando imaging using a small fraction of the pixels means that the observations can significantly reduce the effect of the beam, automatically increase the imaging speed and decrease the total data transfer rate required. Such new software capabilities offer the potential to significantly widen the application of operando hardware approaches to study nanoscale dynamics in materials.

Stanfill, Bryan A.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Measurement of dijet cross-sections in pp collisions at 7 TeV centre-of-mass energy using the ATLAS detector

Double-differential dijet cross-sections measured in pp collisions at the LHC with a 7 TeV centre-of-mass energy are presented as functions of dijet mass and half the rapidity separation of the two highest-p T jets. These measurements are obtained using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.5 fb -1 , recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2011. The data are corrected for detector effects so that cross-sections are presented at the particle level. Cross-sections are measured up to 5TeV dijet mass using jets reconstructed with the anti- k t algorithm for values of the jet radius parameter of 0.4 and 0.6. The cross-sections are compared with next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD calculations by NLOJet++ corrected to account for non-perturbative effects. Comparisons with POWHEG predictions, using a next-to-leading-order matrix element calculation interfaced to a partonshower Monte Carlo simulation, are also shown. Electroweak effects are accounted for in both cases. The quantitative comparison of data and theoretical predictions obtained using various parameterizations of the parton distribution functions is performed using a frequentist method. In general, good agreement with data is observed for the NLOJet++ theoretical predictions when using the CT10, NNPDF2.1 and MSTW 2008 PDF sets. Disagreement is observed when using the ABM11 and HERAPDF1.5 PDF sets for some ranges of dijet mass and half the rapidity separation. An example setting a lower limit on the compositeness scale for a model of contact interactions is presented, showing that the unfolded results can be used to constrain contributions to dijet production beyond that predicted by the Standard Model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

A combined experimental and computational study of the mechanism of fructose dehydration to 5-hydroxymethylfurfural in dimethylsulfoxide using Amberlyst 70, PO 4 3- /niobic acid, or sulfuric acid catalysts

We report on a combined experimental and theoretical study of the acid catalyzed dehydration of d-fructose in dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) using; Amberlyst 70, PO 4 3- /niobic acid, and sulfuric acid as catalysts. The reaction has been studied and intermediates characterized using; 13C, 1H, and 17O NMR, and high resolution electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (HR ESI–MS). High level G4MP2 theory calculations are used to understand the thermodynamic landscape for the reaction mechanism in DMSO. We have experimentally identified two key intermediates in the dehydration of fructose to form HMF that were also identified, using theory, as local minima on the potential surface for reaction. A third intermediate, a species capable of undergoing keto–enol tautomerism, was also experimentally detected. However, it was not possible to experimentally distinguish between the keto and the enol forms. These data with different catalysts are consistent with common intermediates along the reaction pathway from fructose to HMF in DMSO. The role of oxygen in producing acidic species in reactions carried out in DMSO in presence of air is also discussed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Modeling and simulation of CO 2 capture using semipermeable elastic microcapsules

Very high rates of CO2 absorption have been demonstrated using semipermeable microcapsules filled with environmentally benign sodium carbonate solutions (Vericella et al., Nature communications 6, 2015). However, such capsules have also exhibited several traits, including water loss/uptake, elastic swelling and buckling, and precipitation of solids, which make them more complicated to engineer as a carbon capture material. To address this, a mechanistic model for mass transfer and chemical reaction has been developed, which accounts for these behaviors, and can be used as a predictive tool to explore capsule performance under different CO2 capture scenarios. The model uses a modified film theory to describe CO2 and H2O mass transfer rates, a concentration based description of vapor-liquid-solid equilibrium inside the capsule, and an elastic description of the capsule shell. Model predictions compare favorably to literature data for precipitating carbonates, as well as recent data for microcapsule CO2 absorption. The model was used to assess practical issues of capsule water transfer during a temperature swing CO2 absorption/desorption cycle. Model predictions indicate that capsules filled with high weight percent, precipitating sodium carbonate solution could be significantly or completely dehydrated during CO2 absorption. Subsequent rehydration of lean capsules at elevated temperature showed strong sensitivity to both gas humidity, and capsule shell elasticity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Efficacy of a Solution-Based Approach for Making Sodalite Waste Forms for an Oxide Reduction Salt Utilized in the Reprocessing of Used Uranium Oxide Fuel

This paper describes various approaches for making sodalite with a LiCl-Li2O oxide reduction salt used to recover uranium from used oxide fuel. The approaches include sol-gel and solution-based synthesis processes. As-made products were mixed with 5 and 10 mass% of a Na2O-B2O3-SiO2 glass binder and these, along with product without a binder, were heated using either a cold-press-and-sinter method or hot uniaxial pressing. The results demonstrate the limitation of sodalite yield due to the fast intermediate reactions between Na+ and Cl- to form halite in solution and Li2O and SiO2 to form lithium silicates (e.g., Li2SiO3 or Li2Si2O5) in the calcined and sintered pellets. The results show that pellets can be made with high sodalite fractions (~92 mass%) and low porosities using a solution-based approach and this LiCl-Li2O salt.

electrochemical↗

DOE OSTI2018

Evaluation of microstructure stability at the interfaces of Al-6061 welds fabricated using ultrasonic additive manufacturing

Ultrasonic additive manufacturing (UAM) is a solid-state additive manufacturing process that uses fundamental principles of ultrasonic welding and sequential layering of tapes to fabricate complex three-dimensional (3-D) components. One of the factors limiting the use of this technology is the poor tensile strength along the z-axis. Recent work has demonstrated the improvement of the z-axis properties after post-processing treatments. The abnormally high stability of the grains at the interface during post-weld heat treatments is, however, not yet well understood. In this work we use multiscale characterization to understand the stability of the grains during post-weld heat treatments. Aluminum alloy (6061) builds, fabricated using ultrasonic additive manufacturing, were post-weld heat treated at 180, 330 and 580 °C. The grains close to the tape interfaces are stable during post-weld heat treatments at high temperatures (i.e., 580 °C). This is in contrast to rapid grain growth that takes place in the bulk. Transmission electron microscopy and atom-probe tomography display a significant enrichment of oxygen and magnesium near the stable interfaces. Based on the detailed characterization, two mechanisms are proposed and evaluated: nonequilibrium nano-dispersed oxides impeding the grain growth due to grain boundary pinning, or grain boundary segregation of magnesium and oxygen reducing the grain boundary energy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hong-Ou-Mandel interference with a coexisting clock using transceivers for synchronization over deployed fiber

Interference between independently generated photons is a key step towards distributing entanglement over long distances, but it requires synchronization between the distantly-located photon sources. Synchronizing the clocks of such photon sources using coexisting two-way classical optical communications over the same fiber that transports the quantum photonic signals is a promising approach for achieving photon-photon interference over long distances, enabling entanglement distribution for quantum networking using the deployed fiber infrastructure. Here, we demonstrate photon-photon interference by observing the Hong-Ou-Mandel dip between two distantly-located sources: a weak coherent-state source obtained by attenuating the output of a laser and a heralded single-photon source. We achieve a maximum dip visibility of 0.58 +/- 0.04 when the two sources are connected via 4.3 km of deployed fiber. Dip visibilities > 0.5 are nonclassical and a first step towards achieving teleportation over the deployed fiber infrastructure. In our experiment, the classical optical communication is achieved with - 21 dBm of optical signal launch power, which is used to synchronize the clocks in the two independent, distantly-located photon sources. The impact of spontaneous Raman scattering from the classical optical signals is mitigated by appropriate choice of the quantum- and classical-channel wavelengths. All equipment used in our experiment (the photon sources and the synchronization setup) is commercially available. Finally, our experiment represents a scalable approach to enabling practical quantum networking with commercial equipment and coexistence with classical communications in optical fiber.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2014

A Bayesian method for using simulator data to enhance human error probabilities assigned by existing HRA methods

In the past several years, several international organizations have begun to collect data on human performance in nuclear power plant simulators. The data collected provide a valuable opportunity to improve human reliability analysis (HRA), but these improvements will not be realized without implementation of Bayesian methods. Bayesian methods are widely used to incorporate sparse data into models in many parts of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), but Bayesian methods have not been adopted by the HRA community. In this paper, we provide a Bayesian methodology to formally use simulator data to refine the human error probabilities (HEPs) assigned by existing HRA methods. We demonstrate the methodology with a case study, wherein we use simulator data from the Halden Reactor Project to update the probability assignments from the SPAR-H method. The case study demonstrates the ability to use performance data, even sparse data, to improve existing HRA methods. Furthermore, this paper also serves as a demonstration of the value of Bayesian methods to improve the technical basis of HRA.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗