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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Event Signature Library Analytics Report: Signature Matching Tool Development Efforts

This report describes the purpose and features of the Signature Matching Tool (SMT), employed in the Department of Energy (DOE) Grid Event Signature Library (GESL). The SMT supports a user of GESL to identify snippets of electric signatures, usually from sensor devices measuring electric characteristics such as phase voltages and currents, frequency, etc., suspected to represent certain events in the power grid but are not known to the user. The SMT uses a classification method to identify an event of the unknown signature, using the repository of known and labeled signatures in the GESL. The classifier applies a local binary classifier per node (LCN) approach to the unique event tag taxonomy used in the GESL, where training phases are separated based on the Primary labels in the taxonomy, sensor type, and voltage level. Results show that this method helps with computing time during training, in comparison to a flat, multinomial classifier, and produces acceptable average accuracy of 83% across all Primary labels. The report concludes with planned future work including integration to the web interface and API.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods to Forecast Tropospheric Ozone Levels in Delhi

Ground-level ozone is a pollutant that is harmful to urban populations, particularly in developing countries where it is present in significant quantities. It greatly increases the risk of heart and lung diseases and harms agricultural crops. This study hypothesized that, as a secondary pollutant, ground-level ozone is amenable to 24 h forecasting based on measurements of weather conditions and primary pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. We developed software to analyze hourly records of 12 air pollutants and 5 weather variables over the course of one year in Delhi, India. To determine the best predictive model, eight machine learning algorithms were tuned, trained, tested, and compared using cross-validation with hourly data for a full year. The algorithms, ranked by R2 values, were XGBoost (0.61), Random Forest (0.61), K-Nearest Neighbor Regression (0.55), Support Vector Regression (0.48), Decision Trees (0.43), AdaBoost (0.39), and linear regression (0.39). When trained by separate seasons across five years, the predictive capabilities of all models increased, with a maximum R 2 of 0.75 during winter. Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory was the least accurate model for annual training, but had some of the best predictions for seasonal training. Out of five air quality index categories, the XGBoost model was able to predict the correct category 24 h in advance 90% of the time when trained with full-year data. Separated by season, winter is considerably more predictable (97.3%), followed by post-monsoon (92.8%), monsoon (90.3%), and summer (88.9%). These results show the importance of training machine learning methods with season-specific data sets and comparing a large number of methods for specific applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine-Learning-based Algorithms for Automated Image Segmentation Techniques of Transmission X-ray Microscopy (TXM)

Four state-of-the-art Deep Learning-based Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNN) were applied to automate the semantic segmentation of a 3D Transmission x-ray Microscopy (TXM) nanotomography image data. The standard U-Net architecture as baseline along with UNet++, PSPNet, and DeepLab v3+ networks were trained to segment the microstructural features of an AA7075 micropillar. A workflow was established to evaluate and compare the DCNN prediction dataset with the manually segmented features using the Intersection of Union (IoU) scores, time of training, confusion matrix, and visual assessment. Comparing all model segmentation accuracy metrics, it was found that using pre-trained models as a backbone along with appropriate training encoder-decoder architecture of the Unet++ can robustly handle large volumes of x-ray radiographic images in a reasonable amount of time. This opens a new window for handling accurate and efficient image segmentation of in situ time-dependent 4D x-ray microscopy experimental datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A machine learning estimator trained on synthetic data for real-time earthquake ground-shaking predictions in Southern California

Abstract After large-magnitude earthquakes, a crucial task for impact assessment is to rapidly and accurately estimate the ground shaking in the affected region. To satisfy real-time constraints, intensity measures are traditionally evaluated with empirical Ground Motion Models that can drastically limit the accuracy of the estimated values. As an alternative, here we present Machine Learning strategies trained on physics-based simulations that require similar evaluation times. We trained and validated the proposed Machine Learning-based Estimator for ground shaking maps with one of the largest existing datasets (<100M simulated seismograms) from CyberShake developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center covering the Los Angeles basin. For a well-tailored synthetic database, our predictions outperform empirical Ground Motion Models provided that the events considered are compatible with the training data. Using the proposed strategy we show significant error reductions not only for synthetic, but also for five real historical earthquakes, relative to empirical Ground Motion Models.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
NASA NTRS2015

Pre-Mission Input Requirements to Enable Successful Sample Collection by a Remote Field/EVA Team

This paper is intended to evaluate the sample collection process with respect to sample characterization and decision making. In some cases, it may be sufficient to know whether a given outcrop or hand sample is the same as or different from previous sampling localities or samples. In other cases, it may be important to have more in-depth characterization of the sample, such as basic composition, mineralogy, and petrology, in order to effectively identify the best sample. Contextual field observations, in situ/handheld analysis, and backroom evaluation may all play a role in understanding field lithologies and their importance for return. For example, whether a rock is a breccia or a clast-laden impact melt may be difficult based on a single sample, but becomes clear as exploration of a field site puts it into context. The FINESSE (Field Investigations to Enable Solar System Science and Exploration) team is a new activity focused on a science and exploration field based research program aimed at generating strategic knowledge in preparation for the human and robotic exploration of the Moon, near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and Phobos and Deimos. We used the FINESSE field excursion to the West Clearwater Lake Impact structure (WCIS) as an opportunity to test factors related to sampling decisions. In contract to other technology-driven NASA analog studies, The FINESSE WCIS activity is science-focused, and moreover, is sampling-focused, with the explicit intent to return the best samples for geochronology studies in the laboratory. This specific objective effectively reduces the number of variables in the goals of the field test and enables a more controlled investigation of the role of the crewmember in selecting samples. We formulated one hypothesis to test: that providing details regarding the analytical fate of the samples (e.g. geochronology, XRF/XRD, etc.) to the crew prior to their traverse will result in samples that are more likely to meet specific analytical objectives than samples collected in the absence of this premission information. We conducted three tests of this hypothesis. Our investigation was designed to document processes, tools and procedures for crew sampling of planetary targets. This is not meant to be a blind, controlled test of crew efficacy, but rather an effort to recognize the relevant variables that enter into sampling protocol and to develop recommendations for crew and backroom training in future endeavors. Methods: One of the primary FINESSE field deployment objectives was to collect impact melt rocks and impact melt-bearing breccias from a number of locations around the WCIS structure to enable high precision geochronology of the crater to be performed [1]. We conducted three tests at WCIS after two full days of team participation in field site activities, including using remote sensing data and geologic maps, hiking overland to become familiar with the terrain, and examining previously-collected samples from other islands. In addition, the team members shared their projects and techniques with the entire team. We chose our "crew members" as volunteers from the team, all of whom had had moderate training in geologic fieldwork and became familiar with the general field setting. The first two tests were short, focused tests of our hypothesis. Test A was to obtain hydrothermal vugs; Test B was to obtain impact melt and intrusive rock as well as the contact between the two to check for contact metamorphism and age differences. In both cases, the test director had prior knowledge of the site geology and had developed a study-specific objective for sampling prior to deployment. Prior to the field deployment, the crewmember was briefed on the sampling objective and the laboratory techniques that would be used on the samples. At the field sites (Fig. 2), the crewmember was given 30 minutes to survey a small section of outcrop (10-15 m) and acquire a suite of three samples. The crewmember talked through his process and the test director kept track of the timeline in verbal cues to the crewmember. At the conclusion, the team member conducting the scientific study appraised the samples and train of thought. Test C was a 90-minute EVA simulation using two crewmembers working out of line-of-sight in communication with a science backroom. The science objectives were determined by the science backroom team in advance using a Gigapan image of the outcrop (Fig. 1). The science team formulated hypotheses for the outcrop units and created sampling objectives for impact-melt lithologies; the science team turned these into a science plan, which they communicated to the crew in camp prior to crew deployment. As part of the science plan, the science team also discussed their sample needs in depth with the crewmembers, including laboratory methods, objectives, and samples sizes needed. During the deployment, the two crewmembers relayed real-time information to the science backroom by radio with no time delay. Both the crew and science team re-evaluated their hypotheses and science plans in real-time. Discussion: Upon evaluation, we found that the focused tests (Tests A and B) were successful in meeting their scientific objectives. The crewmember used their knowledge of how the samples were to be used in further study (technique, sample size, and scientific need) to focus on the sampling task. The crewmember was comfortable spending minimal time describing and mapping the outcrop. The crewmember used all available time to get a good sample. The larger test was unsuccessful in meeting the sampling objectives. When the crewmembers began describing the lithologies, it was quickly apparent that the lithologies were not as the backroom expected and had communicated to the crew. When the outcrop wasn't as expected, the crew members instinctively switched to field characterization mode, taking significant time to characterize and map the outcrop. One crew member admitted that he "kind of lost track" of the sampling strategy as he focused on the basic outcrop characterization. This is the logical first step in a field geology campaign, that a significant amount of time must be spent by the crew and backroom to understand the outcrop and its significance. Basic field characterization of an outcrop is a focused activity that takes significant time and training [2, 3]. Sampling of representational lithologies can be added to this activity for little cost [4]. However, we have shown that identification of unusual or specific samples for laboratory study also takes significant time and knowledge. We suggest that sampling of this type be considered a separate activity from field characterization, and that crewmembers be trained in sampling needs for different kinds of studies (representative lithologies vs. specialized samples) to acquire a mindset for sampling similar to field mapping. Sampling activities should be given a significant amount of specifically allocated time in scheduling EVA activities; and in the better case, that sampling be done as a second activity to a previously studied outcrop where both crew and backroom are comfortable with its context and characteristics. Our hypothesis posited that crewmember knowledge of how the samples would be used upon return would aid them in choosing relevant samples. Our testing bore this hypothesis out to some extent. We therefore recommend that crewmember training should include exposure to the laboratory techniques and analyses that will be used on the samples to foster this knowledge. There is also the potential for increasing crewmember contextual knowledge real-time in the field through the introduction of in situ geochemical technologies such as field portable XRF. The presence of field portable geochemical technology could enable the astronauts to interrogate the samples for K abundance real-time, ensuring they could collect valuable and dateable samples [5]. Though simulations such as these can teach us a fair bit about decision making processes and timeline building, one EVA participant noted that when he wasn't collecting "real" samples, he wasn't at his best. This effect suggests that higher-fidelity studies involving truly remote participants conducting actual scientific studies merit further attention to capture lessons for application to future crew situations.

sample collection↗
DOE OSTI2020

On Neural Architectures for Astronomical Time-series Classification with Application to Variable Stars

Despite the utility of neural networks (NNs) for astronomical time-series classification, the proliferation of learning architectures applied to diverse data sets has thus far hampered a direct intercomparison of different approaches. Here we perform the first comprehensive study of variants of NN-based learning and inference for astronomical time series, aiming to provide the community with an overview on relative performance and, hopefully, a set of best-in-class choices for practical implementations. In both supervised and self-supervised contexts, we study the effects of different time-series-compatible layer choices, namely the dilated temporal convolutional neural network (dTCNs), long-short term memory NNs, gated recurrent units and temporal convolutional NNs (tCNNs). Additionally, we also study the efficacy and performance of encoder-decoder (i.e., autoencoder) networks compared to direct classification networks, different pathways to include auxiliary (non-time-series) metadata, and different approaches to incorporate multi-passband data (i.e., multiple time series per source). Performance—applied to a sample of 17,604 variable stars (VSs) from the MAssive Compact Halo Objects (MACHO) survey across 10 imbalanced classes—is measured in training convergence time, classification accuracy, reconstruction error, and generated latent variables. We find that networks with recurrent NNs generally outperform dTCNs and, in many scenarios, yield to similar accuracy as tCNNs. In learning time and memory requirements, convolution-based layers perform better. We conclude by discussing the advantages and limitations of deep architectures for VS classification, with a particular eye toward next-generation surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, the Roman Space Telescope, and Zwicky Transient Facility.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

LVQ and backpropagation neural networks applied to NASA SSME data

Feedfoward neural networks with backpropagation learning have been used as function approximators for modeling the space shuttle main engine (SSME) sensor signals. The modeling of these sensor signals is aimed at the development of a sensor fault detection system that can be used during ground test firings. The generalization capability of a neural network based function approximator depends on the training vectors which in this application may be derived from a number of SSME ground test-firings. This yields a large number of training vectors. Large training sets can cause the time required to train the network to be very large. Also, the network may not be able to generalize for large training sets. To reduce the size of the training sets, the SSME test-firing data is reduced using the learning vector quantization (LVQ) based technique. Different compression ratios were used to obtain compressed data in training the neural network model. The performance of the neural model trained using reduced sets of training patterns is presented and compared with the performance of the model trained using complete data. The LVQ can also be used as a function approximator. The performance of the LVQ as a function approximator using reduced training sets is presented and compared with the performance of the backpropagation network.

Doniere, Timothy F.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Effects of Long-Duration Spaceflight on Training Retention and Transfer

Training our crew members for long duration, exploration-class missions will have to maximize long-term retention and transfer of the trained skills. The expected duration of the missions, our inability to predict all the possible tasks the crew will be called upon to perform, and the low training-to-mission time ratio require that the training be maximally effective such that the skills acquired during training will be retained and will be transferrable across a wide range of specific tasks that are different from the particular tasks used during training. However, to be able to design training that can achieve these ambitious goals, we must first understand the ways in which long-duration spaceflight affects training retention and transfer. Current theories of training retention and transfer are largely based on experimental studies conducted at university laboratories using undergraduate students as participants. Furthermore, all such studies have been conducted on Earth. We do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members. More specifically, we do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members in space and especially during long-duration missions. To address this gap in our knowledge, the current on-going study seeks to test the null hypothesis that performance of university undergraduate students on Earth on training retention and transfer tests do in fact predict accurately the performance of crew members during long-duration spaceflights. To test this hypothesis, the study employs a single 16-month long experimental protocol with 3 different participant groups: undergraduate university students, crew members on the ground, and crew members in space. Results from this study will be presented upon its completion. This poster presents results of study trials of the two tasks used in this study: a data entry task and a mapping task. By researching established training principles, by examining future needs, and by using current practices in spaceflight training as test beds, this research project is mitigating program risks and generating templates and requirements to meet future training needs.

ISS↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Effects of Long-Duration Spaceflight on Training Retention and Transfer

Training our crew members for long duration, exploration-class missions will have to maximize long-term retention and transfer of the trained skills. The expected duration of the missions, our inability to predict all the possible tasks the crew will be called upon to perform, and the low training-to-mission time ratio require that the training be maximally effective such that the skills acquired during training will be retained and will be transferrable across a wide range of specific tasks that are different from the particular tasks used during training. However, to be able to design training that can achieve these ambitious goals, we must first understand the ways in which long-duration spaceflight affects training retention and transfer. Current theories of training retention and transfer are largely based on experimental studies conducted at university laboratories using undergraduate students as participants. Furthermore, all such studies have been conducted on Earth. We do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members. More specifically, we do not know how well the results of these studies predict the performance of crew members in space and especially during long-duration missions. To address this gap in our knowledge, the current on-going study seeks to test the null hypothesis that performance of university undergraduate students on Earth on training retention and transfer tests do in fact predict accurately the performance of crew members during long-duration spaceflights. To test this hypothesis, the study employs a single 16-month long experimental protocol with 3 different participant groups: undergraduate university students, crew members on the ground, and crew members in space. Results from this study will be presented upon its completion. This poster presents results of study trials of the two tasks used in this study: a data entry task and a mapping task. By researching established training principles, by examining future needs, and by using current practices in spaceflight training as test beds, this research project is mitigating program risks and generating templates and requirements to meet future training needs.

training↗
NASA NTRS2016

Clinical Outcome Metrics for Optimization of Robust Training

Introduction: The emphasis of this research is on the Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability's (ExMC) "Risk of Unacceptable Health and Mission Outcomes Due to Limitations of In-Flight Medical Capabilities." Specifically, this project aims to contribute to the closure of gap ExMC 2.02: We do not know how the inclusion of a physician crew medical officer quantitatively impacts clinical outcomes during exploration missions. The experiments are specifically designed to address clinical outcome differences between physician and non-physician cohorts in both near-term and longer-term (mission impacting) outcomes. Methods: Medical simulations will systematically compare success of individual diagnostic and therapeutic procedure simulations performed by physician and non-physician crew medical officer (CMO) analogs using clearly defined short-term (individual procedure) outcome metrics. In the subsequent step of the project, the procedure simulation outcomes will be used as input to a modified version of the NASA Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to analyze the effect of the outcome (degree of success) of individual procedures (including successful, imperfectly performed, and failed procedures) on overall long-term clinical outcomes and the consequent mission impacts. The procedures to be simulated are endotracheal intubation, fundoscopic examination, kidney/urinary ultrasound, ultrasound-guided intravenous catheter insertion, and a differential diagnosis exercise. Multiple assessment techniques will be used, centered on medical procedure simulation studies occurring at 3, 6, and 12 months after initial training (as depicted in the following flow diagram of the experiment design). Discussion: Analysis of procedure outcomes in the physician and non-physician groups and their subsets (tested at different elapsed times post training) will allow the team to 1) define differences between physician and non-physician CMOs in terms of both procedure performance (pre-IMM analysis) and overall mitigation of the mission medical impact (IMM analysis); 2) refine the procedure outcome and clinical outcome metrics themselves; 3) refine or develop innovative medical training products and solutions to maximize CMO performance; and 4) validate the methods and products of this experiment for operational use in the planning, execution, and quality assurance of the CMO training process The team has finalized training protocols and developed a software training/testing tool in collaboration with Butler Graphics (Detroit, MI). In addition to the "hands on" medical procedure modules, the software includes a differential diagnosis exercise (limited clinical decision support tool) to evaluate the diagnostic skills of participants. Human subject testing will occur over the next year.

Ebert, D.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The effects of syntactic complexity on the human-computer interaction

Three divided-attention experiments were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of a syntactic analysis of the primary task of editing flight route-way-point information. For all editing conditions, a formal syntactic expression was developed for the operator's interaction with the computer. In terms of the syntactic expression, four measures of syntactic were examined. Increased syntactic complexity did increase the time to train operators, but once the operators were trained, syntactic complexity did not influence the divided-attention performance. However, the number of memory retrievals required of the operator significantly accounted for the variation in the accuracy, workload, and task completion time found on the different editing tasks under attention-sharing conditions.

Chechile, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Balancing Training Techniques for Flight Controller Certification

Training of ground control teams has been a difficult task in space operations. There are several intangible skills that must be learned to become the steely eyed men and women of mission control who respond to spacecraft failures that can lead to loss of vehicle or crew if handled improperly. And as difficult as training is, it can also be costly. Every day, month or year an operator is in training, is a day that not only they are being trained without direct benefit to the organization, but potentially an instructor or mentor is also being paid for hours spent assisting them. Therefore, optimization of the training flow is highly desired. Recently the Expedition Division (DI) at Johnson Space Flight Center has recreated their training flows for the purpose of both moving to an operator/specialist/instructor hierarchy and to address past inefficiencies in the training flow. This paper will discuss the types of training DI is utilizing in their new flows, and the balance that has been struck between the ideal learning environments and realistic constraints. Specifically, the past training flow for the ISS Attitude Determination and Control Officer will be presented, including drawbacks that were encountered. Then the new training flow will be discussed and how a new approach utilizes more training methods and teaching techniques. We will look at how DI has integrated classes, workshops, checkouts, module reviews, scenarios, OJT, paper sims, Mini Sims, and finally Integrated Sims to balance the cost and timing of training a new flight controller.

Gosling, Christina↗
NASA NTRS2014

Physiological Observations and Omics to Develop Personalized Sensormotor Adaptability Countermeasures Using Bed Rest and Space Flight Data

Astronauts experience sensorimotor disturbances during the initial exposure to microgravity and during the re-adapation phase following a return to an earth-gravitational environment. These alterations may disrupt the ability to perform mission critical functional tasks requiring ambulation, manual control and gaze stability. Interestingly, astronauts who return from space flight show substantial differences in their abilities to readapt to a gravitational environment. The ability to predict the manner and degree to which individual astronauts would be affected would improve the effectiveness of countermeasure training programs designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. For such an approach to succeed, we must develop predictive measures of sensorimotor adaptability that will allow us to foresee, before actual space flight, which crewmembers are likely to experience the greatest challenges to their adaptive capacities. The goals of this project are to identify and characterize this set of predictive measures that include: 1) behavioral tests to assess sensory bias and adaptability quantified using both strategic and plastic-adaptive responses; 2) imaging to determine individual brain morphological and functional features using structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), diffusion tensor imaging, resting state functional connectivity MRI, and sensorimotor adaptation task-related functional brain activation; 3) genotype markers for genetic polymorphisms in Catechol-O-Methyl Transferase, Dopamine Receptor D2, Brain-derived neurotrophic factor and genetic polymorphism of alpha2-adrenergic receptor that play a role in the neural pathways underlying sensorimotor adaptation. We anticipate these predictive measures will be significantly correlated with individual differences in sensorimotor adaptability after long-duration space flight and an analog bed rest environment. We will be conducting a retrospective study leveraging data already collected from relevant ongoing/completed bed rest and space flight studies. These data will be combined with predictor metrics that will be collected prospectively - behavioral, brain imaging and genomic measures; from these returning subjects to build models for predicting post-mission (bed rest - non-astronauts or space flight - astronauts) adaptive capability as manifested in their outcome measures. Comparisons of model performance will allow us to better design and implement sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures that are customized for each crewmember's sensory biases, adaptive capacity, brain structure and functional capacities, and genetic predispositions against decrements in post-mission adaptive capability. This ability will allow more efficient use of crew time during training and will optimize training prescriptions for astronauts to ensure expected outcomes.

Mulavara, A. P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Subsurface stress criticality associated with fluid injection and determined using machine learning

Machine-learning methods and apparatus are disclosed to determine critical state or other parameters related to fluid-driven failure of a terrestrial locale impacted by anthropogenic activities such as hydraulic fracturing, hydrocarbon extraction, wastewater disposal, or geothermal harvesting. Acoustic emission, seismic waves, or other detectable indicators of microscopic processes are sensed. A classifier is trained using time series of microscopic data along with corresponding data of critical state or failure events. In disclosed examples, random forests and artificial neural networks are used, and grid-search or EGO procedures are used for hyperparameter tuning. Once trained, the classifier can be applied to live data from a fluid injection locale in order to assess a frictional state, assess seismic hazard, assess permeability, make predictions regarding a future fluid-driven failure event, or drive engineering solutions for mitigation or remediation. Variations are disclosed.

Johnson, Paul Allan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Failure prediction and estimation of failure parameters

Machine-learning methods and apparatus are disclosed to determine frictional state or other parameters in an earthquake zone or other failing medium, using acoustic emission, seismic waves, or other detectable indicators of microscopic processes. Predictions of future failures are demonstrated in different regimes. A classifier is trained using time series of acoustic emission data along with historic data of frictional state or failure events. In disclosed examples, random forests and gradient boost trees are used, and grid-search or EGO procedures are used for hyperparameter tuning. Once trained, the classifier can be applied to testing or live data in order to assess a frictional state, assess seismic hazard, or make predictions regarding a future failure event. The technology has been developed in a double direct shear apparatus, but can be widely applied to seismic faults, other terrestrial failures, or failures in man-made structures. Variations are disclosed.

Johnson, Paul Allan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electronic demodulation of optically phase demodulated signals

Device, methods and systems for the electronic demodulation of optically phase demodulated signals are described. An example optical local oscillator generator configured to generate a radio frequency (RF) tone at a desired RF frequency includes a first input configured to receive a broadband optical pulse train, a second input coupled to a delay line interferometer to receive a first control voltage for controlling a delay value of the interferometer and to produce an output optical pulse train, a dispersive element, coupled to the delay line interferometer, to map the output optical pulse train to a time-domain modulated optical pulse train, an optical-to-electrical converter, coupled to the dispersive element, to convert the time-domain modulated optical pulse train to an analog electrical signal, and an RF filter, coupled to the optical-to-electrical converter, to filter the analog electrical signal to generate the RF tone at the desired RF frequency.

Perlmutter, David Simon↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-based Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for Improved Physical Security Design: A Prototype

Prior work in FY24 developed an adversarial AI agent aid in path analysis of physical protection systems. This agent, trained using a model-based reinforcement learning algorithm, was able to successfully learn the most vulnerable path in facilities. It was able to extend the current state of practice for physical protection design by exhibiting dynamic behavior based on current environmental conditions. Whereas PathTrace largely performs a static, graph-based analysis, the AI agent was able to make decisions based on relative position in the facility, current conditions (was the adversarial agnet discovered?), and proximity to secondary targets. The agent demonstrated some novel capabilities, but had limitations that need to be resolved before it can be used for production purposes. For example, the adversarial agent generalizes poorly and takes a relatively long time to train. Nonetheless, there is still considerable promise for developing the adversarial agent further in order to explore even richer, more dynamic behaviors (e.g., adversary motivations, environmental debris, and more). This work considers a complementary idea; development of a planning agent. The planning agent is envisioned as an auto-complete-like tool that can help accelerate security system design by human experts. The agent would respect existing barriers and sensors placed by a human expert while offering cost-effective suggestions (i.e., implicitly balancing effectiveness with cost) to improve the design. The goal is for this agent to be part of an expert’s toolbox, not to totally upend the current state-of-practice, or to displace human experts. The ultimate goal would be concurrent training of both the adversarial and planning agent together, to learn entirely through self-play. This would represent an entirely new way of performing system deign. We selected a hierarchical, model-based reinforcement learning algorithm to serve as the planning agent. This is an extension of concepts used in the prior FY24 adversarial agent work. There, we had a single agent acting an environment. Here, we have two different sub-agents (policies), working together, to form a complete agent. There is a manager policy, which can select abstract goals on slower time scales, and a worker, which performs primitive actions to reach goals selected by the manager. It is worth noting that this class of algorithm is challenging to work with. From our understanding, our work is one of the first successful uses of model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) in nuclear energy1 , and likely the first hierarchical model-based reinforcement learning application in nuclear energy. Further, this work is one of the first known attempts to apply AI to perform a design tasks in nuclear energy. Consequently, there were significant implementation challenges and the bulk of the work was focused on successful implementation and algorithm design. The results presented here are very low technology readiness level as a consequence of the lack of related literature, but still represent a significant step forward in the pursuit of applied AI for design.

42 ENGINEERING↗