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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

MELCOR-TMAP: The integration of MELCOR for fusion and TMAP4 for fusion reactor systems safety analysis and tritium inventory tracking

The design of fusion reactors requires the prediction of radioactive tritium migration during normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. Safety standards such as those from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) require that fusion reactor designs limit the release of hazardous material to the environment. In addition to safety requirements, the rarity of tritium supplies for burning D-T fusion plasma requires tritium breeding blankets. Computational modeling of migration of tritium and various reaction products throughout the fusion reactor serves to create designs that fulfill these requirements. MELCOR-TMAP, owned and developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is an integrated system-level engineering code adapted for the analysis of fusion reactor systems. The history of the conception and evolution of the MELCOR-TMAP code, as well as its current capabilities, recent updates including a corrected composite material wall nodalization scheme, and plans for future development, are discussed here.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing radar scan strategies for tracking isolated deep convection using observing system simulation experiments

Abstract. Optimizing radar observation strategies is one of the most important considerations in pre-field campaign periods. This is especially true for isolated convective clouds that typically evolve faster than the observations captured by operational radar networks. This study investigates uncertainties in radar observations of the evolution of the microphysical and dynamical properties of isolated deep convective clouds developing in clean and polluted environments. It aims to optimize the radar observation strategy for deep convection through the use of high-spatiotemporal cloud-resolving model simulations, which resolve the evolution of individual convective cells every 1 min, coupled with a radar simulator and a cell tracking algorithm. The radar simulation settings are based on the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) and Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field campaigns held in the Houston, TX, area but are generalizable to other field campaigns focusing on isolated deep convection. Our analysis produces the following four outcomes. First, a 5–7 m s−1 median difference in maximum updrafts of tracked cells is shown between the clean and polluted simulations in the early stages of the cloud lifetimes. This demonstrates the importance of obtaining accurate estimates of vertical velocity from observations if aerosol impacts are to be properly resolved. Second, tracking of individual cells and using vertical cross section scanning every minute capture the evolution of precipitation particle number concentration and size represented by polarimetric observables better than the operational radar observations that update the volume scan every 5 min. This approach also improves multi-Doppler radar updraft retrievals above 5 km above ground level for regions with updraft velocities greater than 10 m s−1. Third, we propose an optimized strategy composed of cell tracking by quick (1–2 min) vertical cross section scans from more than one radar in addition to the operational volume scans. We also propose the use of a single-RHI (range height indicator) updraft retrieval technique for cells close to the radars, for which multi-Doppler radar retrievals are still challenging. Finally, increasing the number of deep convective cells sampled by such observations better represents the median maximum updraft evolution with sample sizes of more than 10 deep cells, which decreases the error associated with sampling the true population to less than 3 m s−1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

NMPC for Setpoint Tracking Operation of a Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell System

Solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) are a promising technology to generate hydrogen through water electrolysis. However, intermittent renewable energy requires SOECs to transition between hydrogen production setpoints as the price of electricity fluctuates. A well-functioning control system is important to avoid cell degradation during setpoint tracking operation. In this work, we apply nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) to an SOEC module and supporting equipment and compare NMPC performance to classical PI control while ramping between hydrogen production setpoints. We find that these control methods provide similar performance in many metrics, but NMPC significantly reduces cell thermal gradients during the setpoint transition.

Allan, Douglas↗
DOE OSTI2023

NMPC for Setpoint Tracking Operation of a Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell System

Allan, D.A., V. Dabadghao, M. Li, J.C. Eslick, J. Ma, D. Bhattacharyya, S.E. Zitney, and L.T. Biegler, “NMPC for Setpoint Tracking Operation of a Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell System,” Foundations of Computer Aided Process Operations / Chemical Process Control (FOCAPO/CPC 2023), San Antonio, TX, January 8-12 (2023).

Allan, Douglas↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robust Adaptive Decentralized Dynamic State Estimation with Unknown Control Inputs using Field PMU Measurements

This paper proposes a robust adaptive decentralized dynamic state estimation method for power system with unknown inputs of the highly detailed synchronous machine model. The temporal and spatial correlations among the unknown inputs are used to derive a vector auto-regressive model. The latter is further integrated together with state transition and measurement models for joint state and unknown inputs estimation. Thanks to the consideration of implicit cross-correlations between the states and the unknown inputs, only generator terminal voltage and current phasors are needed. Test results on the US WECC system using the field PMU measurements show that the proposed method is able to track both the system dynamic states and unknown controller inputs. These information could significantly benefit the validation and calibration of generator controller parameters.

Zhao, Junbo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, 2022 Edition

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The latest edition of the report focuses on systems installed through year-end 2021, and is based on data from roughly 2.5 million systems. New to the report this year is an expanded coverage of paired PV-plus-storage systems, including details on system design and pricing trends. The report describes trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state, including preliminary data for first half of 2022 -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive and econometric analysis

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States (2021 Edition) [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. The latest edition of the report focuses on systems installed through year-end 2020, and is based on data from roughly 2.2 million systems, covering 79% of all distributed PV systems installed nationally through 2020. The report describes trends related to project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership. Median installed-price trends, including both long-term and more recent temporal trends at the national and state levels, with comparisons to other recent PV cost and pricing benchmarks as well as to prices reported for other countries. Variability in pricing across individual projects based on system size, state, installer, module efficiency, inverter technology, and non-residential customer type. The report also includes an econometric analysis to estimate the effects of individual drivers on installed prices for host-owned residential systems installed in 2020.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States (2023 Edition) [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired PV+storage systems in the United States. For the purpose of this report, distributed solar includes residential systems, roof-mounted non-residential systems, and ground-mounted systems up to 5 MW-AC. Ground-mounted systems larger than 5 MW-AC are covered in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Utility-Scale Solar. The latest edition of the report is based on 3.2 million systems installed through year-end 2022, representing more than 80% of systems installed to date. The report describes and discusses key trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and non-residential customer segmentation ownership -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive and econometric analysis The report also includes a multi-variate regression analysis to estimate the effects of key pricing drivers for residential systems installed in 2022.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, 2024 Edition [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired PV+storage systems in the United States. For the purpose of this report, distributed solar includes residential systems, roof-mounted non-residential systems, and ground-mounted systems up to 5 MW-AC. Ground-mounted systems larger than 5 MW-AC are covered in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Utility-Scale Solar. The latest edition of the report is based on 3.7 million systems installed through year-end 2023, representing close to 80% of systems installed to date. The report describes and discusses key trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, roof-coverage ratios, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and customer segmentation -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive analysis and a multi-variate regression to estimate the effects of key pricing drivers for residential systems installed in 2023.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A bi-level advanced control framework for large-scale control of buildings with system-level impact

Increased electricity consumption combined with new forms of generation is testing the reliability of our grid infrastructure. This work describes a method to improve the reliability of the grid through large-scale advanced building control. This paper develops a bi-level distributed control framework to shift the load of 153 buildings to achieve a system-level objective of tracking a power reference signal. This bi-level control is based on the previously-developed ANPV-MPC, a predictive controller that uses a Bayesian neural network to generate an accurate control model and adapt to changing conditions over time. By shifting the building electricity demand to better match the available power, the grid system supplying the buildings is more reliable as evidenced by the analysis of node voltages across an IEEE 13-bus distribution system. The proposed bi-level control framework tracks the system-level power reference with enough accuracy to regulate node voltages across the IEEE 13-bus distribution system within ANSI limits of ±5%. Additionally, the adaptive nature of ANPV-MPC allows each building across the system to adapt to changing conditions, further amplifying the system-level reliability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Maximum Power Reference Tracking Algorithm for Power Curtailment of Photovoltaic Systems

This paper presents an algorithm for power curtailment of photovoltaic (PV) systems under fast solar irradiance intermittency. Based on the Perturb and Observe (P&O) technique, the method contains an adaptive gain that is compensated in real-time to account for moments of lower power availability. In addition, an accumulator is added to the calculation of the step size to reduce the overshoot caused by large irradiance swings. A testbed of a three-phase single-stage, 500 kVA PV system is developed on the OPAL-RT eMEGAsim real-time simulator. Field irradiance data and a regulation signal from PJM (RTO) are used to compare the performance of the proposed method with other techniques found in the literature. Results indicate an operation with smaller overshoot, less dc-link voltage oscillations, and improved power reference tracking capability.

Paduani, Victor↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autoencoder Neural Network for chemically reacting systems

Incorporating detailed chemical kinetic models is critical for accurate simulations of reacting flows. However, detailed models involve a large number of thermochemical (TC) state variables. Solving the governing equations to evolve these TC variables becomes impractical for real-world applications. In this work, we propose an autoencoder (AE) neural network (NN)-based reduced model to accelerate such simulations. The AE NN is first trained to find a low-dimensional latent representation of the TC states. Then, the evolving state of a chemical system can be tracked by solving the equations of the latent variables instead of the original TC equations. We demonstrate the reduced model in a syngas CO/H 2 combustion system, using training data collected from canonical perfectly stirred reactors (PSRs). It is found that the AE model can reduce the dimension of the combustion system from 12 to 2 while maintaining low reconstruction error and excellent elemental mass conservation for the test dataset. In the a posteriori test, the combustion states obtained from solving the two latent equations are compared to those from solving the 12 equations of the full model. The AE reduced method is found to be able to capture the diverse combustion states on the top two branches of the S-curve well including the extinction turning point, but with higher prediction errors for states near the ignition turning point.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗