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At least 235 records · Page 13

Field Experience with and Potential for Multi-time Scale Grid Transactions from Responsive Commercial Buildings

The need for and concepts behind demand response are evolving. As the electric system changes with more intermittent renewable electric supply systems, there is a need to allow buildings to provide more flexible demand. This paper presents results from field studies and pilots, as well as engineering estimates of the potential capabilities of fast load responsiveness in commercial buildings. We present a sector wide analysis of flexible loads in commercial buildings, which was conducted to improve resource planning and determine which loads to evaluate in future demonstrations. These systems provide important capabilities for future transactional systems. The field analysis is based on results from California, plus projects in the northwest and east coast. End-uses considered include heating, ventilation, air conditioning and lighting. The timescales of control include day-ahead, as well as day-of, 10-minute ahead and even faster response. This technology can provide DR signals on different times scales to interact with responsive building loads. We describe the latency of the control systems in the building and the round trip communications with the wholesale grid operators.

Piette, Mary Ann↗

Field Experience with and Potential for Multi-time Scale Grid Transactions from Responsive Commercial Buildings

The need for and concepts behind demand response are evolving. As the electric system changes with more intermittent renewable electric supply systems, there is a need to allow buildings to provide more flexible demand. This paper presents results from field studies and pilots, as well as engineering estimates of the potential capabilities of fast load responsiveness in commercial buildings. We present a sector wide analysis of flexible loads in commercial buildings, which was conducted to improve resource planning and determine which loads to evaluate in future demonstrations. These systems provide important capabilities for future transactional systems. The field analysis is based on results from California, plus projects in the northwest and east coast. End-uses considered include heating, ventilation, air conditioning and lighting. The timescales of control include day-ahead, as well as day-of, 10-minute ahead and even faster response. This technology can provide DR signals on different times scales to interact with responsive building loads. We describe the latency of the control systems in the building and the round trip communications with the wholesale grid operators.

Piette, Mary Ann↗

Global Relationships Among Traditional Reflectance Vegetation Indices (NDVI and NDII), Evapotranspiration (ET), and Soil Moisture Variability on Weekly Time Scales

Monitoring the effects of water availability on vegetation globally using satellites is important for applications such as drought early warning, precision agriculture, and food security as well as for more broadly understanding relationships between water and carbon cycles. In this global study, we examine how quickly several satellite-based indicators, assumed to have relationships with water availability, respond, on timescales of days to weeks, in comparison with variations in root-zone soil moisture (RZM) that extends to about 1 m depth. The satellite indicators considered are the normalized difference vegetation and infrared indices (NDVI and NDII, respectively) derived from reflectances obtained with moderately wide (20–40 nm) spectral bands in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) and evapotranspiration (ET) estimated from thermal infrared observations and normalized by a reference ET. NDVI is primarily sensitive to chlorophyll contributions and vegetation structure while NDII may contain additional information on water content in leaves and canopy. ET includes both the loss of root zone soil water through transpiration (modulated by stomatal conductance) as well as evaporation from bare soil. We find that variations of these satellite-based drought indicators on time scales of days to weeks have significant correlations with those of RZM in the same water-limited geographical locations that are dominated by grasslands, shrublands, and savannas whose root systems are generally contained within the 1 m RZM layer. Normalized ET interannual variations show generally a faster response to water deficits and enhancements as compared with those of NDVI and NDII, particularly in sparsely vegetated regions.

Joanna Joiner↗

High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.

In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

Putnam, WilliamM.↗

Assessing changes in US regional precipitation on multiple time scales

We estimate trends in US regional precipitation on multiple time spans and scales relevant to the detection of changes in climatic regimes. A large literature has shown that trend estimation in hydrological series may be affected by long-term persistence (LTP) and selection of sample length. We show that 2000-year proxy-based reconstructions of the Palmer Modified Drought Index for the US Southeast (SE) and Pacific Coast (PC) regions exhibit LTP and reveal post- 1900 changes to be within the range of longer-term natural fluctuations. We also use a new data base of daily precipitation records for 20 locations (10 PC and 10 SE) extending back in many cases to the 1870s. Over the 1901–2017 interval upward trends in some measures of average and extreme precipitation appear, but they are not consistently significant and in the full records back to 1872 they largely disappear. Furthermore, they also disappear or reverse in the post-1978 portion of the data set, which is inconsistent with them being responses to enhanced greenhouse gas forcing. We conclude that natural variability is likely the dominant driver of historical changes in precipitation and hence drought dynamics in the US SE and PC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling organic electronic materials: bridging length and time scales

Organic electronics is a popular and rapidly growing field of research. The optical, electrical and mechanical properties of organic molecules and materials can be tailored using increasingly well controlled synthetic methods. The challenge and fascination with this field of research is derived from the fact that not only the chemical identity, but also the spatial arrangement of the molecules critically affects the performance of the material. Thus synthetic, fabrication, characterisation and computational scientists need to work closely to relate a materials performance in a device to the molecular details that cause and optimise that performance. For computational scientists in particular, the need to relate macroscopic device performance to details of molecular electronic structure brings challenges in methodology due to the need to bridge many orders of time and length scales. Furthermore, this article provides a survey of computational methods applied to multiple-length and time scale problems in organic electronic materials. Here we seek to highlight a few particular approaches that expand the simulation toolbox.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Age of Martian Air: Time Scales for Martian Atmospheric Transport

The mean time since air in the Martian atmosphere was in the low-latitude boundary layer is examined using simulations of an idealized “mean age” tracer with the MarsWRF general circulation model. The spatial distribution and seasonality of the mean age in low- and mid-latitudes broadly follow contours of the mean meridional circulation, with the mean age increasing from 0 at the surface to a maximum of 60–100 sols in the upper atmosphere. Substantially older mean ages (exceeding 300 sols) are found in polar regions, with oldest ages in the lower atmosphere (10–100 Pa), above a near-surface layer with very young ages (around 20 sols). The annual maximum ages occur around the equinoxes, and the age in the polar lower atmosphere decreases during the autumn to winter transition. This autumn-winter decrease in age occurs because of mixing of polar and mid-latitude air when the polar vortex exhibits an annulus of high potential vorticity (PV) with a local minimum near the pole. There is no autumn-winter decrease and old ages persist throughout autumn and winter in simulations with CO2 phase changes disabled, and thus no latent heating, where there is a monopolar vortex (i.e., a monotonic increase in PV from equator to pole) forms. The altitudinal and seasonal variations in the mean age indicates similar variations in the transport of dust into polar regions and the mixing of polar air (with, e.g., low water vapor and high ozone concentrations during winter) into mid-latitudes.

Waugh, D. W.↗

Dynamics in entangled polyethylene melts [Multi time scale dynamics in entangled polyethylene melts]

Polymer dynamics creates distinctive viscoelastic behavior as a result of a coupled interplay of motion at the atomic length scale and motion of the entire macromolecule. Capturing the broad time and length scales of polymeric motion however, remains a challenge. Using linear polyethylene as a model system, we probe the effects of the degree of coarse graining on polymer dynamics. Coarse-grained (CG) potentials are derived using iterative Boltzmann inversion with λ methylene groups per CG bead (denoted CGλ) with λ = 2,3,4 and 6 from a fully-atomistic polyethylene melt simulation. By rescaling time in the CG models by a factor α, the chain mobility for the atomistic and CG models match. We show that independent of the degree of coarse graining, all measured static and dynamic properties are essentially the same once the dynamic scaling factor α and a non-crossing constraint for the CG6 model are included. The speedup of the CG4 model is about 3 times that of the CG3 model and is comparable to that of the CG6 model. Furthermore, using these CG models we were able to reach times of over 500 μs, allowing us to measure a number of quantities, including the stress relaxation function, plateau modulus and shear viscosity, and compare directly to experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Zonal‐Scale of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Propagation Speed on the Interannual Time‐Scale

Abstract While no significant long‐term trend in the propagation speed of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winter is found during the past decades, pronounced year‐to‐year variability of the MJO phase speed is illustrated by analyzing a century‐long record data set. During the winters when fast MJO propagation is observed, the MJO exhibits a much larger zonal‐scale than that during the winters with slow propagation. A broader extension in MJO circulation effectively induces stronger and broader lower‐tropospheric moistening (drying) to the east (west) of MJO through horizontal moisture advection, prompting a faster MJO phase speed. The larger MJO zonal‐scale during the fast MJO propagation winters is coincident with anomalously increased background sea surface temperatures and precipitable water over both the western Indian Ocean and central/eastern Pacific, reminiscent of an expansion of the Indo‐Pacific warm pool. A fundamental question remains open regarding the key processes that determine the zonal‐scale of MJO organization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of Nanocomposite Coatings for Future Large-Scale Time Projection Chambers

In the context of this award we tested the performance of thin high-resistivity coatings for their potential usage as field shaping systems in future large scale xenon Time Projection Chambers (TPC). A successful implementation of such thin coatings would likely simplify the design of potential future detectors, allowing to overcome some of the challenges observed with traditional systems constituted by massive discrete electrodes. We studied a wide range of materials and characterized their optical and electrical performances as functions of temperature and wavelength. The measurement campaign indicated that uniform coatings covering the full PTFE substrate (usually used as reflector in LXe TPCs) impact too severely on the light collection performance of such detectors when used with deep UV light. Despite tuning the composition and thicknesses of nanocomposite coatings, we were not able to identify a single coating, properly working at LXe temperature, that would simultaneously fulfill the resistance and optical requirements. Following the risk mitigation strategy identified in the proposal we moved the focus of the R&D to identify proper materials that, when coated with grid-like patterns on PTFE, would not alter meaningfully its optical properties (with respect to bare PTFE panels) but would still serve as effective field shaping systems, properly containing the drift field in TPC detectors. Among the various materials we identified germanium as the most promising one, providing a good adhesion to PTFE and the proper range of sheet resistivity. The Ge-patterned coating tested within a small scale LXe TPC showed good performance as a field shape system and, as desired, did not reduce the detector light yield. These results are encouraging and such technology should further be investigated as a potential alternative to more traditional field shaping electrodes. Incidentally, in the context of this R&D, we stumbled upon an unexpected behavior suggesting that some of the treatments performed on the PTFE panels, in preparation of the coatings, meaningfully boosted the PTFE reflectivity. The most probable candidate is the O2 plasma cleaning procedure. This hypothesis will be tested in the near future by operating the small scale TPC at UChicago first with regular PTFE panels and then with panels bombarded with O2 plasma (but no coatings). This finding, if confirmed, might open up the possibility of further boosting UV light collection in future large detectors by performing such a treatment on the PTFE surfaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mastering Uncertainty and Risk at Multiple Time Scales in the Future Electrical Grid

Today's electrical grids enjoy a relatively clean separation of spatio-temporal scales yielding a compartmentalization of grid design, optimization, control and risk assessment allowing for the use of conventional mathematical tools within each area. In contrast, the future grid will incorporate time-intermittent renewable generation, operate via faster electrical markets, and tap the latent control capability at finer grid modeling scales; creating a fundamentally new set of couplings across spatiotemporal scales and requiring revolutionary advances in mathematics techniques to bridge these scales. One example is found in decade-scale grid expansion planning in which today's algorithms assume accurate load forecasts and well-controlled generation. Incorporating intermittent renewable generation creates fluctuating network flows at the hourly time scale, inherently linking the ability of a transmission line to deliver electrical power to hourly operational decisions. New operations-based planning algorithms are required, creating new mathematical challenges. Spatio-temporal scales are also crossed when the future grid's minute-scale fluctuations in network flows (due to intermittent generation) create a disordered state upon which second-scale transient grid dynamics propagate effectively invalidating today's on-line dynamic stability analyses. Addressing this challenge requires new on-line algorithms that use large data streams from new grid sensing technologies to physically aggregate across many spatial scales to create responsive, data-driven dynamic models. Here, we sketch the mathematical foundations of these problems and potential solutions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A comparison of explosively driven shock wave radius versus time scaling approaches

Abstract Explosively driven shock wave radius versus time profiles are frequently used to document energy release and relative explosive performance. Recently, two universal shock wave radius versus time profiles have been presented in the literature, which demonstrate the ability to represent explosively driven shock wave profiles for all explosive sources in any fluid environment. These two universal shock wave profiles are examined here relative to each other and relative to a commonly used nonlinear shock wave profile, which is fit to experimental data for individual explosive materials. The nonlinear profile, originally developed by Dewey, is examined here, and a universal non-dimensional form of the equation is proposed. The universal shock wave profiles are all found to be relatively similar, but with slight variations in a transition region of non-dimensional radii $$0.15\lesssim R^*\lesssim 2$$ 0.15 ≲ R ∗ ≲ 2 . The variations in this region result in different estimations of energy release or blast strength between the curve fits.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Space Charge Models for Particle Tracking on Long Time Scales

In order to efficiently track charged particles over long times, most tracking codes use either analytic charge distributions or particle-in-cell (PIC) methods based on fast Fourier transforms (FFTs). While useful for theoretical studies, analytic distribution models do not allow accurate simulation of real machines. PIC calculations can utilize realistic space charge distributions, but these methods suffer from the presence of discretization errors. We examine the situation for particle tracking with space charge over long times, and consider possible ideas to improve the accuracy of such calculations.

Holmes, Jeffrey A↗

Parallel Multi-Step/Multi-Rate Integration of Two-Time Scale Dynamic Systems

Increasing demands on the fidelity of simulations for real-time and high-fidelity simulations are stressing the capacity of modern processors. New integration techniques are required that provide maximum efficiency for systems that are parallelizable. However many current techniques make assumptions that are at odds with non-cascadable systems. A new serial multi-step/multi-rate integration algorithm for dual-timescale continuous state systems is presented which applies to these systems, and is extended to a parallel multi-step/multi-rate algorithm. The superior performance of both algorithms is demonstrated through a representative example.

dynamics↗

Two reference time scales for studying the dynamic cavitation of liquid films

Two formulas, one for characteristic time of filling a void with a vapor of the surrounding liquid, and one of filling the void by diffusion of the dissolved gas in the liquid, are derived. Based on this analysis, it is seen that in an oil film bearing operating under dynamic loads, the content of cavitation region should be oil vapor rather than the air liberated from solution, if the oil is free of entrained air.

Sun, D. C.↗

A detection of the evolutionary time scale of the DA white dwarf G117 - B15A with the Whole Earth Telescope

The time rate of change for the main pulsation period of the 13,000 K DA white dwarf G117 - B15A has been detected using the Whole Earth Telescope (WET). The observed rate of period change, P(dot) = (12.0 + or - 3.5) x 10 to the -15th s/s, is somewhat larger than the published theoretical calculations of the rate of period change due to cooling, based on carbon core white dwarf models. Other effects that could contribute to the observed rate of period change are discussed.

Kepler, S. O.↗