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At least 235 records · Page 13

Power Sector Transformation Pathways: Exploring Objectives, Factors, and Technology Innovations to Inform Power Sector Pathway Decisions

The power and heating sectors are responsible for around 30% of global CO2 emissions and this share is likely to grow as countries move towards electrification of the transportation and building sectors. Therefore, enabling forward-thinking, long term strategies in the power sector is a crucial area for international collaboration and support. The rapid transition of power systems toward modern, low-carbon pathways and technologies will be necessary to meet key climate goals while also enabling other critical objectives such as economic development, energy access, and energy system resiliency, among others. Many developed and developing countries are well-poised to champion power sector transformation (PST), however, further support is needed to identify pathways and implement critical near and long-term actions. To address this need, the Low Emission Development Strategies Global Partnership (LEDS GP) together with an expert team including Agora Energiewende, Energy Innovation, European Climate Foundation, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research , Prayas Energy Group and LEDS Latin America and Caribbean Platform, developed a framework identifying four key pathways that can be integrated and combined to support low-carbon PST. These four pathways are: (1) Distributed Energy Resource Revolution, (2) Bulk Power Transformation, (3) Transmission and Distribution Interactivity, and (4) Distributed Transactional Future. To support exploration of pathways, this study examines PST objectives and factors that may lead countries or jurisdictions to place a greater relative emphasis on certain pathways as well as a framework and complementary tool for considering the emphasis in a hands on manner. The report provides case studies on application of the approach to bring life to the topic. The case studies include Haiti, Kenya, Mexico, Southeast Asia, and the European Union, among others. The report also presents actions to-be-taken in the near-, medium- and long-term to support the realization of pathways and long-term transformation of the power sector. The report, together with a complementary spreadsheet tool developed under the effort, can be used to enable stakeholder engagement and visioning for the power sector over the long-term, taking into account key factors and potential innovations. It can also be used to understand and inform relevant analysis tools and models based on which pathways are emphasized, and to identify key actions in the near- and medium-term to avoid lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Strategic Perspectives on the Future of Systems Engineering at NASA

NASA’s Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Infusion and Modernization Initiative (MIAMI) chartered a strategy group comprising early to mid-career NASA subject matter experts with diverse experiences to look into the future of systems engineering at NASA. The purpose of the group was to provide a vision for the future state of systems engineering practices and to develop a strategic plan to enable the evolution of the art up to 20 years in the future. The group used a design thinking approach to gather ideas and obtained insight into current engineering processes and domain outlook by interviewing engineers of varying expertise and experiences who had worked on teams of different sizes for missions large and small. The group built a roadmap to highlight future needs, projected capabilities, and technology and competency gaps and developed a strategic plan to ensure the expedient introduction of these capabilities. The resulting strategic plan recommends capability development and workforce strategies and provides guidance for Agency-wide SE policy. Artifacts, details, and raw data from the strategy team’s work are contained in NASA/TM-20205002911/SUPPL, Strategic Perspectives on the Future of Systems Engineering at NASA: Supplemental Information: Appendixes A to K.

Anupa R Bajwa↗

Clean Energy Roadmap: From Reconstruction to Decarbonization in Ukraine

The Net Zero World Initiative, committed to accelerating decarbonization and fostering more inclusive, equitable, and resilient energy systems, is pleased to support the Government of Ukraine in developing decarbonization pathways for its energy sector. In a collaborative effort to promote the resilience and sustainability of the energy system as part of the country’s reconstruction, the leading US Department of Energy’s national laboratories and distinguished Ukrainian research institutes and think tanks worked on this study. Together, we have developed scenarios for achieving net zero emissions in the energy sector, which are in line with the goals set out in the Energy Strategy of Ukraine through 2050. The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine report will present this report at the Conference of the Parties (COP28).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cyber Security: Big Data Think II Working Group Meeting

This presentation focuses on approaches that could be used by a data computation center to identify attacks and ensure malicious code and backdoors are identified if planted in system. The goal is to identify actionable security information from the mountain of data that flows into and out of an organization. The approaches are applicable to big data computational center and some must also use big data techniques to extract the actionable security information from the mountain of data that flows into and out of a data computational center. The briefing covers the detection of malicious delivery sites and techniques for reducing the mountain of data so that intrusion detection information can be useful, and not hidden in a plethora of false alerts. It also looks at the identification of possible unauthorized data exfiltration.

computer security↗

A Causal Approach to Integrate Component Health Data into System Reliability Models

Two of the challenges of current plant reliability approaches are the ability to integrate plant health data, and to support decision making. Condition based data and diagnostic/prognostic information are in fact not considered into plant reliability models to inform system engineers on the most critical components. Currently, the propagation of quantitative health data from the component to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature/structure of the data. On the other hand, plant reliability methods (which are typically based on fault-trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate data from the component to the system level, but values of failure rates or failure probabilities are an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience, and it neglects the present component health status (e.g., diagnostic and condition-based data) and health projection (when available from prognostic data). Our first claim is that system reliability models should propagate health information from the component to the system/plant level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system/plant health and identify the most critical components. Our second claim is that component health should be informed solely by that specific component current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience. This paper is directly supporting these two claims by proposing a different approach to perform reliability modeling which relies on available component diagnostic, prognostic and condition-based data to measure component health, and it propagates this information through fault tree models. The propagation of health data from the component to the system level is performed not in terms of probability, but in terms of margins where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present actual status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated to a component performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired component performance (i.e., component health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical components.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach

Current system reliability methods (typically based on fault trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate reliability data from the asset to the system level in order to identify system critical points. However, employed asset reliability data are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). Sensor data, diagnostic assessments, and prognostic assessments are in fact not considered in plant reliability models used to inform system engineers on the most critical assets. In addition, the propagation of quantitative health data from the asset to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature and structure of health data elements (e.g., vibration spectra, temperature readings, expected failure time). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating available health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Here, this paper is directly addressing these two goals by proposing a different approach for reliability modeling that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. The propagation of health data from the asset to the system level is performed through fault tree models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated with asset performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired asset performance (i.e., its health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision-making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical assets.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Role of Radiation in Making Meteoritic Organics and False Biomarkers

The tons of organic material that come to the Earth every day on meteorites and dust particles probably helped to make the Earth habitable, and possibly played a role in the origin of life. These compounds."include amino acids, nucleo bases, vesicle forming fatty acids, and many others. Lab experiments suggest that low temperature radiation chemistry could account for many of these chemicals. If we find evidence of Life elsewhere in the Solar System it will probably be in form of chemical biomarkers, quintessentially biological molecules that indicate the presence of micro-organisms. While most people think of the molecules above as good biomarkers, they are not.

Bernstein, Max↗

Ice photochemistry as a source of amino acids and other organic molecules in meteorites, and implications for the origin of life and the search for life in the Solar System

The tons of extraterrestrial organic material that come to the Earth every day probably helped to made the Earth habitable, and possibly played a role in the origin of life. At the astrochemistry lab (http://www.astrochem.orq) we investigate the formation and distribution of organic molecules in space and consider the impact such molecules may have on the habitability of planets and the search for life in the Solar System. The organic compounds in meteorites include amino acids, aromatics of various sorts including purine and pyrimidine bases, and fatty acids that form bi-layer vesicles. The origin of many of these species remains mysterious, but in recent years we and others have performed experiments that suggest low temperature radiation chemistry could account for the presence and deuterium enrichment of many of these molecules. . I will present our laboratory experiments that show the viability of low temperature radiation chemistry as a source of organic molecules such as;amino acids (Nature, 2002, 416, 401-403), amphiphiles (Astrobiology, 2003, 2, 371, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 2001, 98, 815), quinones (Science, 1999, 283, 1135) and other functionalized aromatic compounds (Meteoritics, 2001, 36, 351 ; Astrophysical Journal., 2003, 582, L25), some of which were invoked as potential biomarkers in the Alan Hills 84001 Martian meteorite. Understanding how components of proteins and DNA could form in sterile space environments is also of relevance to our search for life elsewhere in the Solar System, the great task now ahead of NASA. If we find evidence of Life elsewhere in the Solar System it will probably be in form of chemical biomarkers, quintessentially biological molecules that indicate the presence of micro-organisms. While most people think of molecules such as amino acids, and nucleo-bases as good candidate biomarkers, these molecules are produced non-biotically in space and are expected to be present on the surface of other planets even in the absence of Life. Understanding the range of non-biological organic molecules which could act as false biomarkers in space is a prerequisite for any reasonable search for Life on other worlds.

Bernstein, Max↗

Examining Nuisance Aerosol Detections in Light of the Origin of the Screening Process (November 2021)

The evolution of philosophy and computations in the International Data Center (IDC) related to aerosol samples have had profound impacts on the number of recorded detections in the network since routine operations began in 2000. Key decisions from policymakers have been the list of triggering radionuclides, the scheme for categorizing these into interest levels 1-5, and an algorithm for determining when an anthropogenic isotope is seen so often that it is no longer interesting, known as the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). These are described in the Operations Manual of the IDC. Key parameters that are controlled by the IDC but for which the IDC receives occasional input from policymakers include the constants in EWMA and the peak significance threshold for individual gamma rays, the latter of which directly leads to determination of the presence or absence of a radionuclide in a sample. There are also changes in computations which the IDC makes and informs policy makers about, such as changes in how background is computed, which could also affect the ease of detecting a peak – real or false. Rather than focus on the quantitative changes due to computation changes, this work records some thinking on how isotopes and peak significance levels were chosen, and the resulting detections seen over 18 years during the buildup of the International Monitoring System (IMS). These detections are considered on a global scale to try to determine the relative impact on monitoring, and in some cases, the nature of their existence. Repeated detections of 131I and 133I are the most troublesome, but they are not so frequent to be a major problem for the Verification Regime. These detections could probably be handled adequately using scientific methods currently under development for xenon backgrounds. It is also somewhat problematic that top-level analysis of aerosol backgrounds has not been reported previous to this. The steep increase in the rate of detections after 2016 are a concern, either in the actual backgrounds or from changes in the calculations methods used to generate the Reviewed Radionuclide Report (RRR.) Final conclusions of the authors are that the computational stability of the RRR is very important. With computational stability, changes can be usefully analyzed as being due to changes in radioactivity in Earth’s atmosphere This report is a distillation into text of a talk given in the Radionuclide Experts Group (RNEG) in Vienna during Working Group B (WGB) in February of 2019. This report does not directly contain any IDC data, only summaries by year, or by isotope, or by location. No specific IDC detection by time, location, or isotope is included.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Automatic programming of simulation models

The objective of automatic programming is to improve the overall environment for describing the program. This improved environment is realized by a reduction in the amount of detail that the programmer needs to know and is exposed to. Furthermore, this improved environment is achieved by a specification language that is more natural to the user's problem domain and to the user's way of thinking and looking at the problem. The goal of this research is to apply the concepts of automatic programming (AP) to modeling discrete event simulation system. Specific emphasis is on the design and development of simulation tools to assist the modeler define or construct a model of the system and to then automatically write the corresponding simulation code in the target simulation language, GPSS/PC. A related goal is to evaluate the feasibility of various languages for constructing automatic programming simulation tools.

Schroer, Bernard J.↗

Assured Mission Support Space Architecture (AMSSA) study

The assured mission support space architecture (AMSSA) study was conducted with the overall goal of developing a long-term requirements-driven integrated space architecture to provide responsive and sustained space support to the combatant commands. Although derivation of an architecture was the focus of the study, there are three significant products from the effort. The first is a philosophy that defines the necessary attributes for the development and operation of space systems to ensure an integrated, interoperable architecture that, by design, provides a high degree of combat utility. The second is the architecture itself; based on an interoperable system-of-systems strategy, it reflects a long-range goal for space that will evolve as user requirements adapt to a changing world environment. The third product is the framework of a process that, when fully developed, will provide essential information to key decision makers for space systems acquisition in order to achieve the AMSSA goal. It is a categorical imperative that military space planners develop space systems that will act as true force multipliers. AMSSA provides the philosophy, process, and architecture that, when integrated with the DOD requirements and acquisition procedures, can yield an assured mission support capability from space to the combatant commanders. An important feature of the AMSSA initiative is the participation by every organization that has a role or interest in space systems development and operation. With continued community involvement, the concept of the AMSSA will become a reality. In summary, AMSSA offers a better way to think about space (philosophy) that can lead to the effective utilization of limited resources (process) with an infrastructure designed to meet the future space needs (architecture) of our combat forces.

Hamon, Rob↗

Advanced Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans

This guide is for public utility commission staff, state energy office staff, and other stakeholders who review model results for utility integrated resource plans (IRPs). It builds on the "Beginner's Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans," and delves into more advanced topics that were not included or not fully covered in the beginner's guide. The topics included here are evolving and may or may not be important to the resource plan you are evaluating. Due to limitations in resources, it's also not possible to give the highest level of detail or attention to every topic within a plan. An important part of planning for an uncertain future involves deciding which topics deserve the most focus and resources. It's all about prioritizing efforts where they will have the most impact or be most beneficial despite uncertainties ahead. As with the beginner's guide, we intend for this guide to help improve decision-making in the electricity planning process by strengthening understanding and dialogue between electricity system planners and relevant stakeholders. The following information is designed to allow you to better engage in the planning process by evaluating results, asking questions, and thinking through what is most important. We allocate significant discussion in the guide to electricity demand evolution, demand-side resources, and resource adequacy. These topics have garnered increasing attention, hence their prominence in this guide. Other topics are also presented, but their incorporation into the planning process might vary based on interest and relevance. The absence of certain topics doesn't diminish their importance; rather, it reflects the reality that in planning, trade-offs necessitate prioritizing certain aspects over others.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DMTN-093: Design of the LSST Alert Distribution System

We describe the proposed design and implementation of the LSST Alert Distribution System, which provides rapid dissemination of alerts to community alert brokers. At time of writing, this service is still under development; this “living document” describes current thinking, but is expected to evolve over the course of LSST construction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

4. Parallels in Communication and Navigation Technology and Natural Phenomenon

This chapter represents an introspective search for hidden connections between technology and nature and inadvertent influence on biomimicry – especially as it pertains to links to electromagnetics in navigation and communication systems. Several devices, phenomena, and approaches to problem solving are considered and an attempt is made to identify linkages between experiences, observables and the way we think about and create new technology.

Advanced Air Mobility↗

File-access characteristics of parallel scientific workloads

Phenomenal improvements in the computational performance of multiprocessors have not been matched by comparable gains in I/O system performance. This imbalance has resulted in I/O becoming a significant bottleneck for many scientific applications. One key to overcoming this bottleneck is improving the performance of parallel file systems. The design of a high-performance parallel file system requires a comprehensive understanding of the expected workload. Unfortunately, until recently, no general workload studies of parallel file systems have been conducted. The goal of the CHARISMA project was to remedy this problem by characterizing the behavior of several production workloads, on different machines, at the level of individual reads and writes. The first set of results from the CHARISMA project describe the workloads observed on an Intel iPSC/860 and a Thinking Machines CM-5. This paper is intended to compare and contrast these two workloads for an understanding of their essential similarities and differences, isolating common trends and platform-dependent variances. Using this comparison, we are able to gain more insight into the general principles that should guide parallel file-system design.

Nieuwejaar, Nils↗

An augmented Young-Laplace model of an evaporating meniscus in a micro-channel with high heat flux

High flux evaporations from a steady meniscus formed in a 2 micron channel is modeled using the augmented Young-Laplace equation. The heat flux is found to be a function of the long range van der Waals dispersion force which represents interfacial conditions between heptane and various substrates. Heat fluxes of (1.3-1.6) x 10(exp 6) W/m(exp 2) based on the width of the channel are obtained for heptane completely wetting the substrate at 100 C. Small channels are used to obtain these large fluxes. Even though the real contact angle is 0 deg, the apparent contact angle is found to vary between 24.8 deg and 25.6 deg. The apparent contact angle, which represents viscous losses near the contact line, has a large effect on the heat flow rate because of its effect on capillary suction and the area of the meniscus. The interfacial heat flux is modeled using kinetic theory for the evaporation rate. The superheated state depends on the temperature and the pressure of the liquid phase. The liquid pressure differs from the pressure of the vapor phase due to capillarity and long range van der Waals dispersion forces which are relevant in the ultra think film formed at the leading edge of the meniscus. Important pressure gradients in the thin film cause a substantial apparent contact angle for a complete wetting system. The temperature of the liquid is related to the evaporation rate and to the substrate temperature through the steady heat conduction equation. Conduction in the liquid phase is calculated using finite element analysis except in the vicinity of the thin film. A lubrication theory solution for the thin film is combined with the finite element analysis by the method of matched asymptotic expansions.

Wayner, P. C., Jr.↗

Risk as a Driver for Innovation

The Space Life Sciences directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) at NASA Johnson Space Center has implemented a system for managing human systems risks. These risks are defined as the health and performance risks posed to crew during and after spaceflight. Identification and evaluation of these risks has led to the identification of gaps in knowledge about the risks as well as gaps in technology needed to mitigate them. Traditional routes of closing technology gaps have, in some cases, proven to be too slow when a solution was required quickly. Therefore, certain gaps were used to drive the development of "challenges" for the scientific community. Partnering with open innovation service providers such as InnoCentive and Yet2.com, SLSD and HRP have decreased the amount of time from identification of a need to the evaluation of a solution. Although not all proposed solutions will result in a risk mitigation strategy or tool, the process has allowed faster evaluation of proposed solutions providing the researcher the ability to move to another possible solution if the first does not sufficiently address the problem. Moreover, this process engages the community outside of NASA and broadens the population from which to draw solutions. In the traditional grant funding structure, only those in the specific field will apply for the grant. However, using open innovation, solutions can come from individuals in many different fields. This can expand the general view of a field (way of thinking within a field) and the application of solutions form new fields while providing a pathway for the acquisition of novel solutions or refinements of current mitigations. Identification of the human systems risks has helped drive the development and evaluation of innovative solutions as well as engaging a broader scientific audience in working with NASA.

Davis, Jeff↗

Centering a DDR Strobe in the Middle of a Data Packet

The Orion CEV Northstar ASIC (application- specific integrated circuit) project required a DDR (double data rate) memory bus driver/receiver (DDR PHY block) to interface with external DDR memory. The DDR interface (JESD79C) is based on a source synchronous strobe (DQS\) that is sent along with each packet of data (DQ). New data is provided concurrently with each edge of strobe and is sent irregularly. In order to capture this data, the strobe needs to be delayed and used to latch the data into a register. A circuit solves the need for training a DDR PRY block by incorporating a PVT-compensated delay element in the strobe path. This circuit takes an external reference clock signal and uses the regular clock to calibrate a known delay through a data path. The compensated delay DQS signal is then used to capture the DQ data in a normal register. This register structure can be configured as a FIFO (first in first out), in order to transfer data from the DDR domain to the system clock domain. This design is different in that it does not rely upon the need for training the system response, nor does it use a PLL (phase locked loop) or a DLL (delay locked loop) to provide an offset of the strobe signal. The circuit is created using standard ASIC building blocks, plus the PVT (process, voltage, and temperature) compensated delay line. The design uses a globally available system clock as a reference, alleviating the need to operate synchronously with the remote memory. The reference clock conditions the PVT compensated delay line to provide a pre-determined amount of delay to any data signal that passes through this delay line. The delay line is programmed in degrees of offset, so that one could think of the clock period representing 360deg of delay. In an ideal environment, delaying the strobe 1/4 of a clock cycle (90deg) would place the strobe in the middle of the data packet. This delayed strobe can then be used to clock the data into a register, satisfying setup and hold requirements of the system.

Johnson, Michael↗