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At least 235 records · Page 13

Predicting the Operational Acceptance of Airborne Flight Reroute Requests Using Data Mining

For tools that generate more efficient flight routes or reroute advisories, it is important to ensure compatibility of automation and autonomy decisions with human objectives so as to ensure acceptability by the human operators. In this paper, the authors developed a proof of concept predictor of operational acceptability for route changes during a flight. Such a capability could have applications in automation tools that identify more efficient routes around airspace impacted by weather or congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The predictor is based on applying data mining techniques, including logistic regression, a decision tree, a support vector machine, a random forest and Adaptive Boost, to historical flight plan amendment data reported during operations and field experiments. Cross validation was used for model development, while nested cross validation was used to validate the models. The model found to have the best performance in predicting air traffic controller acceptance or rejection of a route change, using the available data from Fort Worth Air Traffic Control Center and its adjacent Centers, was the random forest, with an F-score of 0.77. This result indicates that the operational acceptance of reroute requests does indeed have some level of predictability, and that, with suitable data, models can be trained to predict the operational acceptability of reroute requests. Such models may ultimately be used to inform route selection by decision support tools, contributing to the development of increasingly autonomous systems that are capable of routing aircraft with less human input than is currently the case.

Operational Acceptability↗

A machine learning approach to water quality forecasts and sensor network expansion: Case study in the Wabash River Basin, United States

Abstract Midwestern cities require forecasts of surface nitrate loads to bring additional treatment processes online or activate alternative water supplies. Concurrently, networks of nitrate monitoring stations are being deployed in river basins, co‐locating water quality observations with established stream gauges. However, tools to evaluate the future value of expanded networks to improve water quality forecasts remains challenging. Here, we construct a synthetic data set of stream discharge and nitrate for the Wabash River Basin—one of the United States’ most nutrient polluted basins—using the established Agro‐IBIS and THMB models. Synthetic data enables rapid, unbiased and low‐cost assessment of potential sensor placements to support management objectives, such as near‐term forecasting. Using the synthetic data, we established baseline 1‐day forecasts for surface water nitrate at 12 cities in the basin using support vector machine regression (SVMR; RMSE 0.48–3.3 ppm). Next, we used the SVMRs to evaluate the improvement in forecast performance associated with deployment of additional nitrate sensors. We identified the optimal sensor placement to improve forecasts at each city, and the relative value of sensors at each candidate location. Finally, we assessed the co‐benefit realized by other cities when a sensor is deployed to optimize a forecast at one city, finding significant positive externalities in all cases. Ultimately, our study explores the potential for machine learning to make near‐term predictions and critically evaluate the improvement realized by expanding a monitoring network. While we use nitrate pollution in the Wabash River Basin as a case study, this approach could be readily applied to any problem where the future value of sensors and network design are being evaluated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Can Machine Learning Reveal Precursors of Reversals of the Geomagnetic Axial Dipole Field?

It is well known that the axial dipole part of Earth’s magnetic field reverses polarity, so that the magnetic North Pole becomes the South Pole and vice versa. The timing of reversals is well documented for the past 160 Myr, but the conditions that lead to a reversal are still not well understood. It is not known if there are reliable ‘precursors’ of reversals (events that indicate that a reversal is upcoming) or what they might be. We investigate if machine learning (ML) techniques can reliably identify precursors of reversals based on time-series of the axial magnetic dipole field. The basic idea is to train a classifier using segments of time-series of the axial magnetic dipole. This training step requires modification of standard ML techniques to account for the fact that we are interested in rare events—a reversal is unusual, while a non-reversing field is the norm. Without our tweak, the ML classifiers lead to useless predictions. Perhaps even more importantly, the usable observational record is limited to 0–2 Ma and contains only five reversals, necessitating that we determine if the data are even sufficient to reliably train and validate an ML algorithm. To answer these questions we use several ML classifiers (linear/non-linear support vector machines and long short-term memory networks), invoke a hierarchy of numerical models (from simplified models to 3-D geodynamo simulations), and two palaeomagnetic reconstructions (PADM2M and Sint-2000). The performance of the ML classifiers varies across the models and the observational record and we provide evidence that this is not an artefact of the numerics, but rather reflects how ‘predictable’ a model or observational record is. Studying models of Earth’s magnetic field via ML classifiers thus can help with identifying shortcomings or advantages of the various models. For Earth’s magnetic field, we conclude that the ability of ML to identify precursors of reversals is limited, largely due to the small amount and low frequency resolution of data, which makes training and subsequent validation nearly impossible. Put simply: the ML techniques we tried are not currently capable of reliably identifying an axial dipole moment (ADM) precursor for geomagnetic reversals. This does not necessarily imply that such a precursor does not exist, and improvements in temporal resolution and length of ADM records may well offer better prospects in the future.

Kyle Gwirtz↗

Unsupervised Anomaly Detection in High-Dimensional Flight Data Using Convolutional Variational Auto-Encoder

The modern National Airspace System (NAS) is an extremely safe system and the aviation industry has experienced a steady decrease in fatalities over the years. This can be attributed to both improved flight critical systems with redundant hardware and software protections, as well as an increased focus on active monitoring and response to real time and historically identified vulnerabilities by implementing more resilient procedures and protocols. The main approach for identifying vulnerabilities in operations leverages domain expertise using knowledge about how the system should behave within the expected tolerances to known safety margins. This approach works well when the system has a well-defined operating condition. However, the operations in the NAS can be highly complex with various nuances that render it difficult to clearly pre-define all known safety vulnerabilities. With the advancement of data science and machine learning techniques, the potential to automatically identify emerging vulnerabilities in the observed operations has become more practical in recent years. The state-of-the-art anomaly detection approaches in aerospace data usually rely on supervised or semi-supervised learning. However, in many real-world problems such as flight safety, creating labels for the data requires huge amount of effort and is largely impractical. To address this challenge, we developed a Convolutional Variational Auto-Encoder (CVAE), which is an unsupervised learning approach for anomaly detection in high-dimensional heterogeneous time-series data. We validate performance of CVAE compared to the state-of-the-art supervised learning approach as well as unsupervised clustering-based approach using KMeans++ and kernel-based approach using One-Class Support Vector Machine (OC-SVM) on Yahoo!'s benchmark time series anomaly detection data. Finally, we showcase performance of CVAE on a case study of identifying anomalies in the first 60 seconds of commercial flights' take-offs using Flight Operational Quality Assurance (FOQA) data.

Memarzadeh, Milad↗

Geometrical defect detection for additive manufacturing with machine learning models

This study proposed a scheme based on Machine Learning (ML) models to detect geometric defects of additively manufactured objects. The ML models are trained with synthetic 3D point clouds with defects and then applied to detect defects in actual production. Using synthetic 3D point clouds rather than experimental data could save a huge amount of training time and costs associated with many prints for each design. Besides distance differences of individual points between source and target point clouds, this scheme uses a new concept called “patch” to capture macro-level information about nearby points for ML training and implementation. Numerical comparisons of prediction results on experimental data with different shapes showed that the proposed scheme outperformed the existing Z-difference method in the literature. Five ML methods (Bagging of Trees, Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, K-nearest Neighbors and Linear Supported Vector Machine) were compared under various conditions, such as different point cloud densities and defect sizes. Bagging and Random Forest were found the two best models regarding predictability; and the right patch size was found to be at 20. The proposed ML-based scheme is applicable to in-situ defect detection during additive manufacturing with the aid of a proper 3D data acquisition system.

Additive manufacturing↗

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% was shown on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning (ML) Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% was shown on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗

Leveraging large language models to address data scarcity in machine learning for graphene synthesis

Machine learning in experimental materials science faces significant challenges due to the scarcity of data, which are costly and time-consuming to generate, particularly when relying on in-house experiments. Literature data mining offers a potential solution but introduces issues like mixed data quality, inconsistent formats, and non-uniform reporting of synthesis parameters, resulting in partially missing and heterogeneous features across the dataset. Here, we propose data imputation and feature engineering methods that employ pre-trained large language models (LLMs) to enhance machine learning performance on scarce, heterogeneous datasets, demonstrated on graphene CVD synthesis data and the ML-HydPARK hydrogen storage dataset. GPT models perform data imputation via tailored prompting and semantic normalization of inconsistently reported features through embeddings, for example, to harmonize the complex nomenclature of CVD substrates. Beyond yielding more diverse and richer feature representations than traditional methods such as K-nearest neighbors (KNN) and Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE), LLM-based data imputation is evaluated against dataset characteristics and prompting strategies. We vary the level of autonomy granted to the LLM, from generic prompting that leverages pre-trained knowledge for autonomous data generation to data-informed prompting that constrains outputs using target-specific information, and demonstrate which level of autonomy yields superior imputation performance across datasets and feature types. The proposed data engineering methods markedly improve downstream performance; for example, in graphene layer number classification using a support vector machine (SVM), binary accuracy increases from 39% to 65% and ternary accuracy from 52% to 72%. Fine-tuning experiments on both datasets show that combining our proposed LLM-based data imputation and feature encoding methods with numerical machine learning predictors outperforms standalone fine-tuned LLM predictors in data-scarce settings. The proposed strategies emphasize data enhancement techniques rather than refining learning architectures or regularizing loss functions, offering a broadly applicable framework for improving machine learning performance on scarce, inhomogeneous datasets.

Chemical vapor deposition↗

Automated Stellar Spectra Classification with Ensemble Convolutional Neural Network

Large sky survey telescopes have produced a tremendous amount of astronomical data, including spectra. Machine learning methods must be employed to automatically process the spectral data obtained by these telescopes. Classification of stellar spectra by applying deep learning is an important research direction for the automatic classification of high-dimensional celestial spectra. In this paper, a robust ensemble convolutional neural network (ECNN) was designed and applied to improve the classification accuracy of massive stellar spectra from the Sloan digital sky survey. We designed six classifiers which consist six different convolutional neural networks (CNN), respectively, to recognize the spectra in DR16. Then, according the cross-entropy testing error of the spectra at different signal-to-noise ratios, we integrate the results of different classifiers in an ensemble learning way to improve the effect of classification. The experimental result proved that our one-dimensional ECNN strategy could achieve 95.0% accuracy in the classification task of the stellar spectra, a level of accuracy that exceeds that of the classical principal component analysis and support vector machine model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Optimization of Trained and Untrained Image Classification Algorithms for Use on Large Spatial Datasets

The HARVIST project seeks to automatically provide an accurate, interactive interface to predict crop yield over the entire United States. In order to accomplish this goal, large images must be quickly and automatically classified by crop type. Current trained and untrained classification algorithms, while accurate, are highly inefficient when operating on large datasets. This project sought to develop new variants of two standard trained and untrained classification algorithms that are optimized to take advantage of the spatial nature of image data. The first algorithm, harvist-cluster, utilizes divide-and-conquer techniques to precluster an image in the hopes of increasing overall clustering speed. The second algorithm, harvistSVM, utilizes support vector machines (SVMs), a type of trained classifier. It seeks to increase classification speed by applying a "meta-SVM" to a quick (but inaccurate) SVM to approximate a slower, yet more accurate, SVM. Speedups were achieved by tuning the algorithm to quickly identify when the quick SVM was incorrect, and then reclassifying low-confidence pixels as necessary. Comparing the classification speeds of both algorithms to known baselines showed a slight speedup for large values of k (the number of clusters) for harvist-cluster, and a significant speedup for harvistSVM. Future work aims to automate the parameter tuning process required for harvistSVM, and further improve classification accuracy and speed. Additionally, this research will move documents created in Canvas into ArcGIS. The launch of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) will provide a wealth of image data such as global maps of Martian weather and high resolution global images of Mars. The ability to store this new data in a georeferenced format will support future Mars missions by providing data for landing site selection and the search for water on Mars.

Kocurek, Michael J.↗

Automated System-wide Event Detection and Classification Using Machine Learning on Synchrophasor Data

As the number of phasor measurement units (PMUs) deployed in a power system increases, and their data volume streamed to the control canter intensifies, operators are facing challenges related to the analysis of such data, which need to be observed and responded to as the measurements are displayed in the Control Room. Humans are generally unable to process such large amount of data efficiently and rapidly. There is an apparent need for automated ways to analyze the data, extract actionable information about occurrence of specific events, and characterize the events quickly and cost effectively. This paper discusses the use of machine learning (ML) to facilitate such tasks by providing automated, highly computationally efficient, and cost-effective ways of extracting actionable information from synchrophasor big data in real-time. We developed Big Data Smart (BDSmart) ML-based prototype tool for the Control Room use that automatically analyses data properties from synchrophasor system measurements taken across the three grid Interconnections in the USA (Western, Eastern and ERCOT). The data collected from several hundreds of PMUs located across the Interconnections over a period of two years have been made available for our extensive study. As a result, we were able to identify a number of big data properties that influence how ML methodology is applied to select, develop, train and test the data models that can eventually be used for the tool implementation. The resulting set of candidate algorithms spans unsupervised, supervised, semi-supervised and transfer-learning approaches. Many ML techniques, such as decision trees, multinomial logistic regression, feed-forward neural networks, K-nearest neighbor, multiclass support vector machine, and single and multi-channel convolutional neural networks, are implemented, and their performance is examined. We offer the results from testing the data models. The novelty of our study is in the approaches for bad data detection and mitigation, selection of a simplified feature for event detection, and data label improvements. As a result, we came up with a list of recommendations for the utilities on how to improve the PMU recording practices to cater to the future ML applications aimed at automating the analysis of synchrophasor data.

Synchrophasors, Machine Learning, System-wide Even↗

Classifying Agnostic Biosignatures using Raman, VNIR, and Elemental Data

How can we use our current wealth of terrestrial data, encompassing biogenic and abiogenic systems, to determine the distinguishing properties of life? SCOBI (Statistical Classification of Biosignature Information) uses machine learning techniques to algorithmically identify combinations of measurements that are “indicative of life”. A set of ~1000 observations, comprising elemental abundance, isotopic fractionation, VNIR reflectance, and (in progress) Raman spectra, have been assembled from existing literature and databases. The observations cover systems classified as “indicative alive” (e.g., cells, vegetation), “indicative non-alive” (e.g., fossils, teeth), “mixed indicative” (e.g., soil, pond water), or “non-indicative” (e.g., rocks, meteorites). VNIR data was preprocessed by linear interpolation from 400-2100 nm and smoothed with a Savitzky-Golay filter. To limit the amount of Earth-biochemistry-specific (non-agnostic) information included, the first five spectral features extracted were number of peaks, number of troughs, mean reflectance, mean peak width, and broadest peak width. To help further emphasize agnostic biosignatures, Earth-specific features such as chlorophylls have been manually flagged so that feature importance with and without them can be compared. Classifiers including k-nearest neighbors (KNN), Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB), logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) were implemented, as was a combination voting classifier. Performance metrics included false positive rates, false negative rates, and AUC with 50-50 test/train splits (Monte Carlo simulations). Key takeaways from this stage, prior to the inclusion of Raman spectra, are (1) the overall success rate of 0.933 AUC was most heavily influenced by the elemental abundance data; and (2) VNIR reflectance had the lowest classification performance with 0.52 AUC (58% of objects correctly classified). The next steps are to complete integration of Raman spectral data and to improve the approach to pre-processing and feature extraction for both types of spectral data, such as automated baseline removal, whole spectrum matching, and dimensionality reduction.

Biosignatures↗

A data-centric weak supervised learning for highway traffic incident detection

Using the data from loop detector sensors for near-real-time detection of traffic incidents on highways is crucial to averting major traffic congestion. While recent supervised machine learning methods offer solutions to incident detection by leveraging human-labeled incident data, the false alarm rate is often too high to be used in practice. Specifically, the inconsistency in the human labeling of the incidents significantly affects the performance of supervised learning models. To that end, we focus on a data-centric approach to improve the accuracy and reduce the false alarm rate of traffic incident detection on highways. We develop a weak supervised learning workflow to generate high-quality training labels for the incident data without the ground truth labels, and we use those generated labels in the supervised learning setup for final detection. This approach comprises three stages. First, we introduce a data preprocessing and curation pipeline that processes traffic sensor data to generate high-quality training data through leveraging labeling functions, which can be domain knowledge-related or simple heuristic rules. Second, we evaluate the training data generated by weak supervision using three supervised learning models-random forest, k-nearest neighbors, and a support vector machine ensemble-and long short-term memory classifiers. The results show that the accuracy of all of the models improves significantly after using the training data generated by weak supervision. Third, we develop an online real-time incident detection approach that leverages the model ensemble and the uncertainty quantification while detecting incidents. Finally, we show that our proposed weak supervised learning workflow achieves a high incident detection rate (0.90) and low false alarm rate (0.08).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Algorithmic Detection of Elemental Biosignatures

Machine learning models that classify a sample as indicative or non-indicative of life could play an important role in life-detection missions. Their predictions result from agnostic algorithms and thereby add redundancy to judgements resulting from human expertise. Additionally, their important features can reveal the most informative measurements within the operational constraints of a life-detection mission. The Ladder of Life Detection (Neveu 2018) identifies the need for an understanding of how combinations of multiple biosignatures affect overall confidence. The present work provides a starting point to answer this need, and future work will expand the data types to obtain even more predictive combinations of features. Elemental abundance was chosen as a starting set of features due to its availability in diverse sample types, which are needed to train a generalizable model. A standardized dataset was collected, including 35 non-indicative, e.g., lunar rock, basalt; 19 indicative mixed, e.g., seawater, agricultural soil; 46 indicative non-alive, e.g., coal, chalk; and 10 indicative alive, e.g., biofilm, bacteria. This dataset could be valuable for complementary biosignature research. The samples were standardized to the same limit of detection of a simulated mission scenario. Four classification models were used: k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), linear support vector machines (SVM), and Gaussian naïve Bayes (GNB). To obtain feature importances, KNN was run on three principal components of the training data and LR and SVM were run with L1 and L2 regularization. The performances and feature importances of the six model variants on 40:60 train to validation ratios were assessed with Monte Carlo simulations. ROC AUC and mean accuracy scores ranged between 82% - 94%, with sensitivity greater than specificity. For indicative of life predictors, all models had C and Ca as strong and Cl as medium; a majority of models had N, K, and P as medium. For non-indicative of life predictors, all models had Si as strong, and a majority of models had Mg, Al, and Ti as medium. Varied elements were Fe (slightly non-indicative), H (slightly indicative), O (widely varied), Na, Mn, and S. These results serve as a proof of concept and suggest important elemental signals beyond merely the CHNOPS of Earth-based life.

Algorithmic↗

Advancing Artificial Intelligence with Liquid Argon Neutrino Experiments (Technical Report)

The grant allowed two main contributions: 1) The development of a first successful demonstration of the employment of Optimal Transport in liquid argon time projection chamber neutrino detectors. Optimal Transport, used in other contexts and specifically with LHC calorimetric data, was adapted to address a key particle identification challenge in LArTPCs: the separation of pi0 backgrounds from single-electrons produced in charged-current electron neutrino interactions. The work, leveraging ML methods such as k-nearest-neighbor (kNN) and support-vector-machine (SVM), showed an increase in background rejection of a factor of two or more. Work is now ongoing to incorporate this development in physics analyses for LArTPC experiments and more broadly expand the use of OT in LArTPC detectors including DUNE. This work was done in collaboration with the phenomenology group led by Nathaniel Craig at UCSB. 2) The deployment of NuGraph2, a graph neural network developed for LArTPC reconstruction, in the MicroBooNE experiment. NuGraph2 uses novel graph-neural-network methods on the rather simple LArTPC inputs of reconstructed hits, greatly simplifying the workflow compared to the use of waveform or signal-deconvolved wire ROIs. The network performed particle classification and was shown to address many challenging problems in LArTPC imaging including track-shower separation and the identification of protons and charged pions from primary muons. Our group collaborated with Giuseppe Cerati (FNAL scientist) who is one of the core developers of NuGraph2 to integrate this tool in MicroBooNE’s analysis framework. This consisted in tow key contributions: a) Studying performance on real data, which came with several months of iterations because the MC-trained version of the network was found to show significant bias that our group investigated and addressed. b) Integrating the output hit labeling of NuGraph2 into the existing particle tracking and shower reconstruction code. As a result of this work led by our team NuGraph2 is now enabling a suite of new analyses which benefit from enhanced capabilities and thus broader physics reach. The grant supported primarily the salary of UCSB graduate student Chuyue “Michaelia” Fang as well as partial summer salary support for PI Caratelli. Some funds were used for travel by Michaelia to ML related schools and conferences.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Pyrrole‐Imine Macrocycle: Self‐Organizing Cross‐Reactive Anion Receptor and Sensor

Self-organizing macrocyclic receptor-sensors for phosphorus oxyanions, phosphates, and phosphonates comprising imine moieties were prepared by condensation of dipyrrolylmethane dicarbaldehyde with diethylene triamine. The incorporation of flexible ethylene moieties endows the macrocycle with unprecedented flexibility and ability to accommodate numerous phosphorus oxyanions from orthophosphate to large anions such as ATP or phosphonate glyphosate. The anion binding was elucidated by NMR titrations, low-temperature NMR, and NOESY NMR. The incorporation of dansyl fluorophore enables sensing of anions using the fluorescence signal, whereas the changes in fluorescence intensity, width of the fluorescence band, and position of the maxima are analyte-specific and useful in recognition and identification of eleven different P-oxyanions in water. The affinity (K assoc ) for Na + salts was H 2 PO 4 − ≈ Methylphosphonate > H 2 P 2 O 7 2− > Phenylphosphonate- > Glyphosate 2− > AMP 2− > ADP 2− > ATP 2− . Interestingly, phosphonates, including methylphosphonate and glyphosate anions, were also found to display a strong affinity (K assoc ∼10 6 M −1 ) while halides, nitrate, carbonates, or hydrogen sulfate did not show a significant affinity. The determined fluorescence spectral parameters were used to classify the 12 analytes (11 anions and water) using Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). Quantification was performed using LDA and Support Vector Machine (SVM), and the phosphonate concentrations in unknown samples were determined with an error of 3.5% or lower.

anions↗