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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Synthesis and Assimilation Systems - Essential Adjuncts to the Global Ocean Observing System

Ocean assimilation systems synthesize diverse in situ and satellite data streams into four-dimensional state estimates by combining the various observations with the model. Assimilation is particularly important for the ocean where subsurface observations, even today, are sparse and intermittent compared with the scales needed to represent ocean variability and where satellites only sense the surface. Developments in assimilation and in the observing system have advanced our understanding and prediction of ocean variations at mesoscale and climate scales. Use of these systems for assessing the observing system helps identify the strengths of each observation type. Results indicate that the ocean remains under-sampled and that further improvements in the observing system are needed. Prospects for future advances lie in improved models and better estimates of error statistics for both models and observations. Future developments will be increasingly towards consistent analyses across components of the Earth system. However, even today ocean synthesis and assimilation systems are providing products that are useful for many applications and should be considered an integral part of the global ocean observing and information system.

Rienecker, Michele M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

How does humidity data impact land surface modeling of hydrothermal regimes at a permafrost site in Utqia$\mathrm{\dot{g}}$vik, Alaska?

Humidity is a basic and crucial meteorological indicator commonly measured in several forms, including specific humidity, relative humidity, and absolute humidity. These different forms can be inter-derived based on the saturation vapor pressure (SVP). In past decades, dozens of formulae have been developed to calculate the SVP with respect to, and in equilibrium with, liquid water and solid ice surfaces, but many prior studies use a single function for all temperature ranges, without considering the distinction between over the liquid water and ice surfaces. These different approaches can result in humidity estimates that may impact our understanding of surface-subsurface thermal-hydrological dynamics in cold regions. In this study, we compared the relative humidity (RH) downloaded and calculated from four data sources in Alaska based on five commonly used SVP formulas. These RHs, along with other meteorological indicators, were then used to drive physics-rich land surface models at a permafrost-affected site. Here, we found that higher values of RH (up to 40%) were obtained if the SVP was calculated with the over-ice formulation when air temperatures were below freezing, which could lead to a 30% maximum difference in snow depths. The choice of whether to separately calculate the SVP over an ice surface in winter also produced a significant range (up to 0.2 m) in simulated annual maximum thaw depths. The sensitivity of seasonal thaw depth to the formulation of SVP increases with the rainfall rate and the height of above-ground ponded water, while it diminishes with warmer air temperatures. These results show that RH variations based on the calculation of SVP with or without over-ice calculation meaningfully impact physically-based predictions of snow depth, sublimation, soil temperature, and active layer thickness. Under particular conditions, when severe flooding (inundation) and cool air temperatures are present, care should be taken to evaluate how humidity data is estimated for land surface and earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Image-domain DAS 3D VSP elastic transmission tomography

SUMMARY Full-wavefield elastic imaging of active-source seismic data acquired by downhole receivers commonly offers higher-resolution subsurface images in the vicinity of a borehole compared to conventional surface seismic data sets, which can lack higher-frequency wavefield components due to longer travel paths and increased attenuation. An increasingly used approach for downhole acquisition is vertical seismic profiling (VSP), which has become more attractive when coupled with distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) using optical fibres installed in wells. The main difficulty for generating high-quality images with full-wavefield imaging tools for DAS VSP data, though, is the need for an accurate velocity model. To build plausible velocity models using active-source DAS VSP data, we adopt a 3-D image-domain elastic transmission tomography technique, originally developed for surface-recorded passive (microseismic) data, by exchanging the source and receiver positions (i.e. reciprocity) to mimic a passive-seismic surface monitoring scenario. The inversion approach exploits various images for each source constructed through time-reverse imaging (TRI) of downgoing P- and S-wave first-arrival waveforms. The TRI process uses the kinetic term of the (extended) PS energy imaging condition that exhibits sufficient sensitivity to velocity model errors. The method automatically updates the P- and S-wave velocity models to optimize image focusing via adjoint-state inversion. We illustrate the efficacy of the adopted elastic inversion technique using an active-source DAS 3-D VSP field data set acquired in the North Slope of Alaska. The numerical experiments demonstrate that the inverted elastic velocity models can be further used in full-wavefield acoustic/elastic imaging algorithms to obtain accurate subsurface images.

Oren, Can (ORCID:000000019534265X)↗
NASA NTRS2016

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.

Kilbourne, Hali↗
NASA NTRS1973

Ten-micron eclipse observations of Io, Europa, and Ganymede.

Eclipse observations of Jupiter's satellites Io, Europa, and Ganymede have been obtained in an 8 to 14-micron band pass during 1971. The simplest thermal model able to explain the data for each satellite is a two-layer surface structure with an upper layer, only a few millimeters thick, having low thermal conductivity consistent with fine rock powder or frost, and a subsurface having high thermal conductivity consistent with solid rock or dense ice. The upper layer on Io appears to be different from that on Europa and Ganymede, but the two-layer model fits all three satellites.

Hansen, O. L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrologic Model Data for the East Fork Poplar Creek Watershed Simulated with the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS): Streamflow and Network Expansion–Contraction Dynamics

This dataset supports hydrologic modeling and stream network expansion–contraction analysis for the East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) Watershed in Tennessee. It includes a Jupyter notebook for model setup, model configuration files, simulation outputs, and derived products used to evaluate model performance and investigate stream dynamics under varying hydrologic conditions. The dataset was generated using the Watershed Workflow Python package and the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), enabling integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic simulations using a stream-aligned mesh. Outputs include high-resolution time series of streamflow, active network length, water table depth, and related hydrologic variables. Also included are spatially explicit stream persistency indices and classifications of reaches as perennial or non-perennial. These data facilitate reproducibility and support further research on stream intermittency and variability in network extent.The model data archive is organized in following directories:1) model_setup_inputsContains the Watershed Workflow Jupyter notebooks (accessed through any open source code editor), selected input datasets, and resulting ATS input files, including XML files (access through any open source code editor), computational mesh (.exo files can be viewed using Paraview), and meteorological forcing files (.h5 files can be accessed through h5py python package and HDFView open source software). 2) model_outputsIncludes ATS simulation outputs relevant to this study. Time series of spatially integrated or averaged variables (e.g., streamflow, water table depth) are provided as CSV files. Select spatial fields (e.g., ponded depth and water table depth) are saved as pickled Python objects to reduce file size, and can be accessed through pickle package in Python. Key geometry objects from Watershed Workflow—such as the surface mesh and river tree—are also included to support analysis of streamflow persistency and expansion–contraction dynamics. These files can also be accessed through Watershed Workflow Python package.3) model_evaluationProvides observed streamflow time series and field survey-based flow regime classifications used to evaluate model performance. Jupyter notebooks for processing ATS outputs and comparing model predictions with observations to build confidence in the model prior to scientific analysis are also included.4) Q_L_relationshipsContains workflows for generating time series of discharge, active network length, and related hydrologic variables used in the stream network expansion–contraction analysis. Includes routines for delineating baseflow-dominated periods. For each catchment, notebooks and processed data (as pickled DataFrames accessed through Pandas Python package) are provided. 5) figure_scriptsProvides the Jupyter notebooks used to generate the figures presented in the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Effective elastic thicknesses of the lithosphere and mechanisms of isostatic compensation in Australia

The isostatic compensation of Australia is investigated using an isostatic model for the Australian lithosphere that assumes regional compensation of an elastic plate which undergoes flexure in response to surface and subsurface loading. Using the coherence between Bouguer gravity and topography and two separate gravity/topography data sets, it was found that, for the continent as a whole, loads with wavelengths above 1500 km are locally compensated. Loads with wavelengths in the range 600-1500 km are partially supported by regional stresses, and loads with wavelengths less than 600 km are almost entirely supported by the strength of the lithosphere. It was found that the predicted coherence for a flexural model of a continuous elastic plate does not provide a good fit to the observed coherence of central Australia. The disagreement between model and observations is explained.

Zuber, Maria T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Biogeochemistry simulations for the Salt Marsh Accretion Response to Temperature eXperiment (SMARTX)

Coastal ecosystems have been largely ignored in Earth system models but are important zones for carbon and nutrient processing. Interactions between water, microbes, soil, sediments, and vegetation are important for mechanistic representation of coastal processes and ecosystem function. To investigate the role of these feedbacks, we used a reactive transport model (PFLOTRAN) that has the capability to be connected to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). PFLOTRAN was used to incorporate redox reactions and track chemical species important for coastal ecosystems as well as define simple representations of vegetation dynamics. Our goal was to incorporate oxygen flux, salinity, pH, sulfur cycling, and methane production along with plant-mediated transport of gases and tidal flux. Using porewater profile and incubation data for model calibration and evaluation, we were able to create depth-resolved biogeochemical soil profiles for saltmarsh habitat and use this updated representation to simulate direct and indirect effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on subsurface biogeochemical cycling. We found that simply changing the partial pressure of CO2 or increasing temperature in the model did not fully reproduce observed changes in the porewater profile, but the inclusion of plant or microbial responses to CO2 and temperature manipulations was more accurate in representing porewater concentrations. This indicates the importance of characterizing tightly coupled vegetation-subsurface processes for developing predictive understanding and the need for measurement of plant-soil interactions on the same time scale to understand how hotspots or moments are generated.Included in this data package are PFLOTRAN input (PFLOTRAN input files and chemical database) files for simulating single column biogeochemistry, root, and tide interactions at the Global Change Research Wetland (Kirkpatrick Marsh; Edgewater, MD). The biogeochemical network includes soil organic matter decomposition, nitrogen, iron, and sulfur cycling, and methanogenesis. Reduced species can be oxidized and plant processes include oxygen and nutrient priming, methane release, and nutrient uptake.Inputs:TAI_database.dat - geochemical database for reactions, more information on database structure and variables can be found here https://www.pflotran.org/documentation/user_guide/cards/pages/geochemical_database.htmlswamp.in - input file for biogeochemical network in PFLOTRANswamp_eCO2.in - input file for biogeochemical network in PFLOTRAN with input gas partial pressures/concentrations adjusted for elevated CO2 treatmentsOutputs:swamp_obs_0.tec - hourly porewater concentrations from from multiple depths in the soil columnswamp_eCO2_obs_0.tec - hourly porewater concentrations from multiple depths in the soil column for elevated CO2 treatmentsPFLOTRAN code access: https://github.com/fmyuan/pflotran-elm-interface.git

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-resolution Arctic Shrub Cover Dataset Derived from UAS and Airborne SfM and LiDAR (2013-2025)

We synthesized 177 unoccupied aerial system flights and 77 airborne flights across the Arctic and created a multi-resolution benchmark data of low-to-tall shrub fractional cover leveraging Structure-from-Motion and Light Detection and Ranging. The resulting dataset covered a total of 1899 km2 across Alaska, Western Canada, Sweden, and Siberian Arctic, including key sites from the Oro Arctic to the High Arctic. The dataset is organized into 6 primary data collection directories (“Abisko,” “AWI,” “ERE,” “Fairbanks,” “NGEE,” “Toolik”), each containing site and flight subdirectories. Flight directories include shrub cover rasters (*.tifs) at 1 m, 5 m, and 30 m resolution, the canopy height model at 1 m resolution (*.tifs), and a bounding box *.kml file. For the AWI, Abisko, NGEE, and Fairbanks collections, we also include the GCC raster at 1 m resolution (*.tif). Files are organized by Collection > Site > Flight Name > Data Files. Flight rasters are in the local UTM zone and the .kml files are in the geographic coordinate system EPSG 4326. We also include a .csv file that details the source datasets for every flight. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

canopy height model↗
DOE OSTI2026

Geophysical Impacts and Spectroscopic Identification of a Hydrous Iron Sulfate on Icy Worlds

Over geologic time-scales, large volumes of exogenic sulfur ions from Io's plasma torus have been supplied to the surface of Europa and Ganymede, which, combined with recent interpretations of orbiter images, dynamical modeling, and surface-subsurface exchange, suggests further sulfur transport into the interior of the icy worlds. These observations motivate mixed-phase spectral modeling for interpreting orbiter spectroscopy data and determination of hydration states of candidate surface materials including hydrous sulfates. In this work, we present a combined experimental and theoretical study of the low temperature and high pressure vibrational spectral signature of the iron-sulfate monohydrate endmember, szomolnokite (FeSO 4 ·H 2 O). By employing synchrotron Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) in the diamond anvil cell up to 23 GPa and down to 20 K, we explore the extreme range of pressure-temperature domains relevant to icy environments throughout our solar system and beyond. Combined with our density-functional theory quantum-mechanics molecular dynamics results, we demonstrate that experimentally observed infrared features in the O-H stretching region commonly associated with nH 2 O (n > 1) hydration states can be attributed to a pure monohydrate without the need for pressure-induced exsolved ice, other coexisting hydrous iron sulfates, or strong overtone and combination modes. We further discuss the possibility of lateral variations in density and shear properties on icy worlds associated with temperature variations and the high-pressure phases of kieserite group monohydrated sulfates.

Geosciences↗
NASA NTRS1996

Passive Microwave Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture

Microwave remote sensing provides a unique capability for direct observation of soil moisture. Remote measurements from space afford the possibility of obtaining frequent, global sampling of soil moisture over a large fraction of the Earth's land surface. Microwave measurements have the benefit of being largely unaffected by cloud cover and variable surface solar illumination, but accurate soil moisture estimates are limited to regions that have either bare soil or low to moderate amounts of vegetation cover. A particular advantage of passive microwave sensors is that in the absence of significant vegetation cover soil moisture is the dominant effect on the received signal. The spatial resolutions of passive Microwave soil moisture sensors currently considered for space operation are in the range 10-20 km. The most useful frequency range for soil moisture sensing is 1-5 GHz. System design considerations include optimum choice of frequencies, polarizations, and scanning configurations, based on trade-offs between requirements for high vegetation penetration capability, freedom from electromagnetic interference, manageable antenna size and complexity, and the requirement that a sufficient number of information channels be available to correct for perturbing geophysical effects. This paper outlines the basic principles of the passive microwave technique for soil moisture sensing, and reviews briefly the status of current retrieval methods. Particularly promising are methods for optimally assimilating passive microwave data into hydrologic models. Further studies are needed to investigate the effects on microwave observations of within-footprint spatial heterogeneity of vegetation cover and subsurface soil characteristics, and to assess the limitations imposed by heterogeneity on the retrievability of large-scale soil moisture information from remote observations.

Njoku, Eni G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Geothermal Research: Fiscal Year 2025 Accomplishments Report

This is a summary of geothermal work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in Fiscal Year 2025. This year brought increased attention to the geothermal industry and NREL's geothermal research portfolio. With more than 70 active projects, NREL research spanned the areas of resource exploration and characterization; conventional and next-generation geothermal technologies; subsurface thermal energy storage; heating and cooling; co-production of geothermal with critical minerals and oil and gas; modeling and analysis leveraging expertise in data science and machine learning; and more.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Geothermal Research: Fiscal Year 2025 Accomplishments Report

This is a summary of geothermal work done at the National Laboratory of the Rockies in Fiscal Year 2025. This year brought increased attention to the geothermal industry and NLR's geothermal research portfolio. With more than 70 active projects, NLR research spanned the areas of resource exploration and characterization; conventional and next-generation geothermal technologies; subsurface thermal energy storage; heating and cooling; co-production of geothermal with critical minerals and oil and gas; modeling and analysis leveraging expertise in data science and machine learning; and more.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface and subsurface oceanographic features drive forage fish distributions and aggregations: Implications for prey availability to top predators in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

Abstract Forage fishes are a critical food web link in marine ecosystems, aggregating in a hierarchical patch structure over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Surface‐level forage fish aggregations (FFAs) represent a concentrated source of prey available to surface‐ and shallow‐foraging marine predators. Existing survey and analysis methods are often imperfect for studying forage fishes at scales appropriate to foraging predators, making it difficult to quantify predator–prey interactions. In many cases, general distributions of forage fish species are known; however, these may not represent surface‐level prey availability to predators. Likewise, we lack an understanding of the oceanographic drivers of spatial patterns of prey aggregation and availability or forage fish community patterns. Specifically, we applied Bayesian joint species distribution models to bottom trawl survey data to assess species‐ and community‐level forage fish distribution patterns across the US Northeast Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem. Aerial digital surveys gathered data on surface FFAs at two project sites within the NES, which we used in a spatially explicit hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the abundance and size of surface FFAs. We used these models to examine the oceanographic drivers of forage fish distributions and aggregations. Our results suggest that, in the NES, regions of high community species richness are spatially consistent with regions of high surface FFA abundance. Bathymetric depth drove both patterns, while subsurface features, such as mixed layer depth, primarily influenced aggregation behavior and surface features, such as sea surface temperature, sub‐mesoscale eddies, and fronts influenced forage fish diversity. In combination, these models help quantify the availability of forage fishes to marine predators and represent a novel application of spatial models to aerial digital survey data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Maps of growing season gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange for Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, [2017-2023]

This data archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025a). Murphy et al. (2025a) evaluated whether incorporating observed Arctic vegetation heterogeneity into ELM, the land model of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), improved simulations of tundra carbon cycling. The associated model archive can be found at Murphy et al. (2025b). The study focused on the spatial patterns and net landscape-level growing season productivity and carbon uptake. As part of this evaluation, observationally derived maps of average growing season (June–August) net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) were developed for the same domain. These maps, which form the dataset described here, integrate eddy covariance flux tower, remote sensing, and vegetation community data to provide spatially explicit benchmarks for model evaluation. The maps provide spatially explicit estimates of average growing season NEE and GPP across 13 tundra vegetation communities within the study domain. By combining flux tower observations with Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) hyperspectral imagery and drone-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), these maps capture the heterogeneity of carbon fluxes associated with different Arctic vegetation types. While they represent average seasonal conditions rather than interannual variability, the maps provide a unique dataset for evaluating model performance, comparing vegetation community contributions to landscape-scale carbon cycling, and supporting regional analyses of Arctic carbon dynamics. This data archive contains 5 m resolution maps of vegetation communities, vegetation community average growing season GPP, and vegetation community average growing season NEE (three *.tif files), a User’s Guide (*pdf file), and Table 1 of the User’s Guide displaying vegetation community coverage and average growing season NEE and GPP values (*.csv file).

Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗
DOE OSTI2024

DEEPEN: Final 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

Part of the DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology, detailed in the journal article below, is based on the method proposed by Poux & O'brien (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., (2022). For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

How initial conditions-, structural-, and parameter-based model uncertainty interact and influence predictions in permafrost ecosystems: Modeling Archive

This dataset contains model output and input data, as well as source code examples for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with the Dynamic Vegetation Model and Dynamic Organic Soil (DVM-DOS-TEM) for the field sites Imnavait creek and the Bonanza creek Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). The data covers simulations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until 2100 for a selection of paleo scenarios, setting the mean temperature of the LGM up to 10°C lower than pre-industrial conditions. The model structure was modulated to represent various model versions, and this dataset contains the relevant changes in the source code. The raw output data, the processed statistical data, the setup and processing scripts as well as parameter value distribution files from a parameter sensitivity analysis are included as well. Model outputs include active layer depth, organic soil carbon, soil layer depths, gross primary productivity (GPP) with and without nitrogen limitation, net primary productivity (NPP), soil liquid water content, heterotrophic, maintenance, and growth respiration, soil temperature, and vegetation carbon (*.nc files). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

On Europa's Magnetospheric Interaction: A MHD Simulation of the E4 Flyby

The global three-dimensional interaction of Europa with the Jovian magnetosphere is modeled by using a complete set of ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations. The model accounts for exospheric mass loading, ion-neutral charge exchange, recombination, and a possible intrinsic dipole magnetic field of Europa. The single-fluid MHD equations are solved by using a modem, finite volume, higher-order, Godunov-type method on an adoptively refined unstructured grid, which allows detailed modeling of the region near Europa while still resolving both the upstream region and the satellite's wake. The magnetic field and plasma density measured during Galileo's EGA flyby of December 19, 1996, are reproduced reasonably well in the simulation. We find the agreement between the data and our model particularly convincing if we assume that the plasma velocity during the EGA flyby deviated from the nominal corotation direction by approximately 20 deg. Evidence from the Galileo energetic particle detector also supports this assumption. In this case, we can fit the data using a dipole with orientation close to that of an induced dipole arising from the interaction of a hypothetical conducting subsurface layer on Europa with the periodically changing magnetic field of Jupiter. However, the magnitude of the dipole in our model is somewhat smaller (70%) than that suggested by Khurana et al. The total mass loading and ion-neutral charge exchange rates are consistent with the estimates of Europa's atmosphere and ionosphere.

Kabin, K.↗