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A Module for Assimilating Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles into the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation System for Unique Forecasting Applications

Hyperspectral infrared sounder radiance data are assimilated into operational modeling systems however the process is computationally expensive and only approximately 1% of available data are assimilated due to data thinning as well as the fact that radiances are restricted to cloud-free fields of view. In contrast, the number of hyperspectral infrared profiles assimilated is much higher since the retrieved profiles can be assimilated in some partly cloudy scenes due to profile coupling other data, such as microwave or neural networks, as first guesses to the retrieval process. As the operational data assimilation community attempts to assimilate cloud-affected radiances, it is possible that the use of retrieved profiles might offer an alternative methodology that is less complex and more computationally efficient to solve this problem. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has assimilated hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles into Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) simulations using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) System. Early research at SPoRT demonstrated improved initial conditions when assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) thermodynamic profiles into WRF (using WRF-Var and assigning more appropriate error weighting to the profiles) to improve regional analysis and heavy precipitation forecasts. Successful early work has led to more recent research utilizing WRF and GSI for applications including the assimilation of AIRS profiles to improve WRF forecasts of atmospheric rivers and assimilation of AIRS, Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite (CrIMSS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) profiles to improve model representation of tropopause folds and associated non-convective wind events. Although more hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles can be assimilated into model forecasts, one disadvantage is the retrieved profiles have traditionally been assigned the same error values as the rawinsonde observations when assimilated with GSI. Typically, satellitederived profile errors are larger and more difficult to quantify than traditional rawinsonde observations (especially in the boundary layer), so it is important to appropriately assign observation errors within GSI to eliminate potential spurious innovations and analysis increments that can sometimes arise when using retrieved profiles. The goal of this study is to describe modifications to the GSI source code to more appropriately assimilate hyperspectral infrared retrieved profiles and outline preliminary results that show the differences between a model simulation that assimilated the profiles as rawinsonde observations and one that assimilated the profiles in a module with the appropriate error values.

Berndt, Emily↗

Flight Mechanics Modeling and Simulation of the Earth Entry System

Introduction: The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign being planned by NASA and ESA has the ambitious goal to return Mars samples back to Earth. This international collaboration had developed a concept of operations that included a ESA-designed Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) and NASA-designed Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS). The Earth Entry System (EES), consisting of a protective aeroshell that houses the samples as well as sample containment vessels, would conduct entry, descent, and landing (EDL) on a direct Earth trajectory. The EES would enter on a spin-stabilized ballistic trajectory with the goal to passively achieve aerodynamic stability throughout all regions of flight. The EDL sequence would end with the EES impacting the soft playa soil of the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). As of the submission of this abstract, the MSR campaign is undergoing a re-architecture leading to a pause in EES development. However, the novel approaches developed in flight mechanics modeling and simulation can significantly benefit the greater IPPW community in the development of Earth return vehicles. This paper will present the latest state of EES flight mechanics modeling and simulation. The paper will highlight the simulation architecture developed and key lessons learned from understanding of EDL trajectory sensitivities. Modeling and Simulation: Figure 1 provides a high-level concept of operations for the approach, entry, descent, and landing (AEDL) phase of the CCRS-portion of MSR. The objective of EES flight mechanics is to model and simulate the EES trajectory from ERO separation to ground impact at UTTR. A variety of flight mechanics simulation models were utilized to model both exo-atmopsheric and atmospheric portions of flight. 42, a 6-DOF simulation developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, is utilized for propagating the attitude of EES during exo-atmospheric flight. 42 allows for a variety of spin eject mechanism scenarios to be simulated for analysis. 10 minutes prior to entry, the 42 states are handed off to the EDL sims. The prime EDL sim utilized by EES is the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2), a 6-DOF sim developed at Langley Research Center, and the independent verification and validation EDL sim utilized is DSENDS, a 6-DOF sim developed at Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Figure 2 provides a visualization of the flight mechanics simulation model flow through various points in the AEDL phase. Due to the existence of a variety of sim models, the EES flight mechanics team developed processes for data hand-off. These processes included the development of a centralized coordinate frame document, utilization of a single, centralized simulation input document for all sims to reference, and hand-off files containing both the technical data to be ingested by other flight mechanics sims as well as annotations of modeling assumptions utilized to generate the data. Figure~\ref{fig:post2simarchitecture} provides an overview of the POST2 sim architecture wherein POST2 ingests numerous subsystem models and input files. The dispersed state file generated by MONTE provides the position/velocity state of the trajectory while the 42 Handoff file provides the attitude. The aerodynamics database, delivered by the EES aeroscience team, is utilized to simulate the aerodynamic forces and moments experienced during EDL. A custom atmosphere model, developed by EES atmosphere team, is utilized to simulate the anticipated atmosphere environment around the region of Earth through which the EES trajectory flys. These inputs and subsystem models can be varied depending on the AEDL flight mechanics scenario being simulated. Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to generate statistical AEDL performance metrics in the form of scorecards and violin plots. Furthermore, outputs from the POST2 simulation are utilized for follow-on analyses including aerothermal and landing performance. \section{Flight Mechanics Lessons Learned} Though the EES flight mechanics team uncovered a variety of lessons learned through the analysis conducted to support CCRS through preliminary design review, this paper will highlight the most important lessons. A key AEDL performance goal is to ensure the landing footprint of EES remains on the UTTR south range. A common modeling strategy used in EDL analysis is One-Variable-At-a-Time (OVAT). OVAT analysis provides insight into the key drivers that affect AEDL performance metrics. Figure 3 shows the landing ellipses for single dispersion sources as compared to the baseline aggregate of all dispersions. The figure shows that atmosphere winds alone dominate the size of the footprint ellipse (note: EES does not use a parachute unlike previous Earth-return missions and is in wind-driven free fall for ~5min). The significance of the wind led the EES flight mechanics team to pursue the development of a Custom Atmosphere Model [4], in lieu of EarthGRAM [1], built on actual radiosonde wind measurements around the UTTR-region. This decision was driven by the realism in the generated footprint ellipses and lessons-learned from Stardust [5]. These findings will be invaluable for future Earth-return missions in providing an early understanding of the key drivers affecting footprint size and modeling considerations for which to account. Another lesson learned is tied to the AEDL performance goal of achieving passive stability throughout all regions of flight. It is well understood that blunt-body aeroshells are less stable as they transition from supersonic to subsonic. Eliminating a backshell does help improvestability; however, other phenomena such as roll-induced instability during terminal descent can still arise. The EES flight mechanics team developed stability metrics as tools to better understand the causes of and better predict the onset of dynamic instability. These tools were built upon analytical models developed by Jaffe [3] and Murphy [2]. The tools were shown to both be very accurate in correlation with actual unstable cases and useful in developing stability margin policies based on the vehicle design and simulation considerations (e.g. sphere-cone angle change, mass change, wind turbulence). These tools allowed for the current EES design to demonstrate the ability to achieve passive stability and can be an invaluable tool for consideration in the design of parachute-less Earth-return vehicles.

Rohan Deshmukh↗

Optimization of Operations Resources via Discrete Event Simulation Modeling

The resource levels required for operation and support of reusable launch vehicles are typically defined through discrete event simulation modeling. Minimizing these resources constitutes an optimization problem involving discrete variables and simulation. Conventional approaches to solve such optimization problems involving integer valued decision variables are the pattern search and statistical methods. However, in a simulation environment that is characterized by search spaces of unknown topology and stochastic measures, these optimization approaches often prove inadequate. In this paper, we have explored the applicability of genetic algorithms to the simulation domain. Genetic algorithms provide a robust search strategy that does not require continuity and differentiability of the problem domain. The genetic algorithm successfully minimized the operation and support activities for a space vehicle, through a discrete event simulation model. The practical issues associated with simulation optimization, such as stochastic variables and constraints, were also taken into consideration.

Joshi, B.↗

Variation in spectral irradiance of the SES solar simulator

A test to determine the spectral characteristics of the solar simulation produced by the solar environment simulator (SES) comprised a statistical analysis to determine the spectral variance, and its effect on the average absorptivity of surface coatings.

Mcnutt, A. E.↗

Estimability and simple dynamical analyses of range (range-rate range-difference) observations to artificial satellites

Non-Bayesian statistics were used in simulation studies centered around laser range observations to LAGEOS. The capabilities of satellite laser ranging especially in connection with relative station positioning are evaluated. The satellite measurement system under investigation may fall short in precise determinations of the earth's orientation (precession and nutation) and earth's rotation as opposed to systems as very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and lunar laser ranging (LLR). Relative station positioning, determination of (differential) polar motion, positioning of stations with respect to the earth's center of mass and determination of the earth's gravity field should be easily realized by satellite laser ranging (SLR). The last two features should be considered as best (or solely) determinable by SLR in contrast to VLBI and LLR.

Vangelder, B. H. W.↗

Statistical sampling analysis for stratospheric measurements from satellite missions

Earth orbiting satellite experiments can be designed to measure stratospheric constituents such as ozone by utilizing remote sensing techniques. Statistical analysis techniques, mission simulation and model development have been utilized to develop a method for analyzing various mission/sensor combinations. Existing and planned NASA satellite missions such as Nimbus-4 and G, and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment-Application Explorer Mission (SAGE-AEM) have been analyzed to determine the ability of the missions to adequately sample the global field.

Drewry, J. W.↗

Digital simulation of dynamic processes in radiometer systems

The development and application of several computer programs for simulating different classes of microwave radiometers are described. The programs are dynamic in nature, and they may be used to determine the instantaneous behavior of system variables as a function of time. Some of the programs employ random variable models in the simulations so that the statistical nature of the results may be investigated. The programs have been developed to utilize either the Continuous System Modeling Program or the Advanced Continuous System Language. The validity of most of the programs was investigated using statistical tests, and the results show excellent correlation with theoretical predictions. The programs are currently being used in the investigation of new design techniques for microwave radiometers.

Stanley, W. D.↗

Hydrology team

General problems faced by hydrologists when using historical records, real time data, statistical analysis, and system simulation in providing quantitative information on the temporal and spatial distribution of water are related to the limitations of these data. Major problem areas requiring multispectral imaging-based research to improve hydrology models involve: evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture dynamics for large areas; the three dimensional characteristics of bodies of water; flooding in wetlands; snow water equivalents; runoff and sediment yield from ungaged watersheds; storm rainfall; fluorescence and polarization of water and its contained substances; discriminating between sediment and chlorophyll in water; role of barrier island dynamics in coastal zone processes; the relationship between remotely measured surface roughness and hydraulic roughness of land surfaces and stream networks; and modeling the runoff process.

Ragan, R.↗

Piloted simulation of an algorithm for onboard control of time-optimal intercept

A piloted simulation of algorithms for onboard computation of trajectories for time-optimal intercept of a moving target by an F-8 aircraft is described. The algorithms, use singular perturbation techniques, generate commands in the cockpit. By centering the horizontal and vertical needles, the pilot flies an approximation to a time-optimal intercept trajectory. Example simulations are shown and statistical data on the pilot's performance when presented with different display and computation modes are described.

Price, D. B.↗

Light propagation in inhomogeneous universes - The ray-shooting method

The propagation of light in a clumpy universe is studied using the ray-shooting method. It is found that 'empty cones' in a clumpy universe are rare, which points out the limitation of frequently used distance measures in an inhomogeneous universe. The results show some qualitatively new features of multiple-gravitational-lens geometry, and a likely explanation for these features is presented. A statistical analysis of the simulations give amplification probability distributions for extended sources, as well as the distribution for the ratio of amplifications of compact sources to amplifications of more extended sources. Sample light curves of individual sources are obtained. Finally, the results support the validity of recent investigations on the influence of gravitational light deflection on source counts of compact extragalactic objects.

Schneider, Peter↗

Triplets of galaxies: Their dynamics, evolution, and the origin of chaos in them

Recently Karachentsev's group at The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) (6-meter Telescope Observatory) published a list of 84 triple systems of galaxies with their distances, radial (line of sight) velocities, and angular sizes (Karachentseva et al., 1988). This gives a new ground for studies of the dark matter problem which fills the gap between the large cosmic scales (White, 1987; Dekel and Rees, 1987, and Einasto et al., 1977) and the scale of individual galaxies (Erickson et al., 1987). The data on the typical velocity dispersions and linear dimension of the triplets indicate that they contain considerable amounts of dark matter (see also earlier work of Karachentseva et al., 1979). Numerical simulations show that the statistical characteristics of the Karachentsev triplets can be imitated by model ensembles of triple systems with dark matter masses M sub d = (1-3 x 10(exp 12) M sub O, which is almost ten times greater than the typical mass of stellar galaxies estimated by the standard mass-to-luminosity ration (Kiseleva and Chernin, 1988). Here, the authors report that important information can be drawn from the data on the visible configurations of these systems. The statistics of configurations provide an independent evidence for dark matter in the triplets; moreover, it enables one to argue that dark matter seems to be distributed over the whole volume of the typical triplet forming its common corona rather than concentrated within individual coronae (or haloes) of the member galaxies.

Chernin, Arthur D.↗

The ideal Kolmogorov inertial range and constant

The energy transfer statistics measured in numerically simulated flows are found to be nearly self-similar for wavenumbers in the inertial range. Using the measured self-similar form, an 'ideal' energy transfer function and the corresponding energy flux rate were deduced. From this flux rate, the Kolmogorov constant was calculated to be 1.5, in excellent agreement with experiments.

Zhou, YE↗

Contact Analog/Compressed Symbology Heading Tape Assessment

A simulation assessed the performance, handling qualities and workload associated with a contact-analog, world-referenced heading tape as implemented on the Comanche Helmet Integrated Display Sight System (HIDSS) when compared with a screen-fixed, compressed heading tape. Six pilots, four active duty Army Aviators and two civilians flew three ADS-33 maneuvers and a traffic pattern in the Ames Vertical Motion Simulation facility. Small, but statistically significant advantages were found for the compressed symbology for handling qualities, workload, and some of the performance measures. It should be noted however that the level of performance and handling qualities for both symbology sets fell within the acceptable tolerance levels. Both symbology sets yield satisfactory handling qualities and performance in velocity stabilization mode and adequate handling qualities in the automatic flight control mode. Pilot comments about the contact analog symbology highlighted the lack of useful rate of change information in the heading tape and "blurring" due to the rapid movement of the heading tape. These issues warrant further study. Care must be taken in interpreting the operational significance of these results. The symbology sets yielded categorically similar data, i.e., acceptable handling qualities and adequate performance, so while the results point to the need for further study, their operational significance has yet to be determined.

Shively, R. Jay↗

Aerothermal Heating Predictions for Mars Microprobe

A combination of computational predictions and experimental measurements of the aerothermal heating expected on the two Mars Microprobes during their entry to Mars are presented. The maximum, non-ablating, heating rate at the vehicle's stagnation point (at alpha = 0 degrees) is predicted for an undershoot trajectory to be 194 Watts per square centimeters with associated stagnation point pressure of 0.064 atm. Maximum stagnation point pressure occurs later during the undershoot trajectory and is 0.094 atm. From computations at seven overshoot-trajectory points, the maximum heat load expected at the stagnation point is near 8800 Joules per square centimeter. Heat rates and heat loads on the vehicle's afterbody are much lower than the forebody. At zero degree angle-of-attack, heating over much of the hemi-spherical afterbody is predicted to be less than 2 percent of the stagnation point value. Good qualitative agreement is demonstrated for forebody and afterbody heating between CFD calculations at Mars entry conditions and experimental thermographic phosphor measurements from the Langley 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. A novel approach which incorporates six degree-of-freedom trajectory simulations to perform a statistical estimate of the effect of angle-of-attack, and other off-nominal conditions, on heating is included.

Mitcheltree, R. A.↗

Numerical experiments with model monophyletic and paraphyletic taxa

The problem of how accurately paraphyletic taxa versus monophyletic (i.e., holophyletic) groups (clades) capture underlying species patterns of diversity and extinction is explored with Monte Carlo simulations. Phylogenies are modeled as stochastic trees. Paraphyletic taxa are defined in an arbitrary manner by randomly choosing progenitors and clustering all descendants not belonging to other taxa. These taxa are then examined to determine which are clades, and the remaining paraphyletic groups are dissected to discover monophyletic subgroups. Comparisons of diversity patterns and extinction rates between modeled taxa and lineages indicate that paraphyletic groups can adequately capture lineage information under a variety of conditions of diversification and mass extinction. This suggests that these groups constitute more than mere "taxonomic noise" in this context. But, strictly monophyletic groups perform somewhat better, especially with regard to mass extinctions. However, when low levels of paleontologic sampling are simulated, the veracity of clades deteriorates, especially with respect to diversity, and modeled paraphyletic taxa often capture more information about underlying lineages. Thus, for studies of diversity and taxic evolution in the fossil record, traditional paleontologic genera and families need not be rejected in favor of cladistically-defined taxa.

Non-NASA Center↗

Exploring the Connection Between Sampling Problems in Bayesian Inference and Statistical Mechanics

The Bayesian and statistical mechanical communities often share the same objective in their work - estimating and integrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) describing stochastic systems, models or processes. Frequently, these pdfs are complex functions of random variables exhibiting multiple, well separated local minima. Conventional strategies for sampling such pdfs are inefficient, sometimes leading to an apparent non-ergodic behavior. Several recently developed techniques for handling this problem have been successfully applied in statistical mechanics. In the multicanonical and Wang-Landau Monte Carlo (MC) methods, the correct pdfs are recovered from uniform sampling of the parameter space by iteratively establishing proper weighting factors connecting these distributions. Trivial generalizations allow for sampling from any chosen pdf. The closely related transition matrix method relies on estimating transition probabilities between different states. All these methods proved to generate estimates of pdfs with high statistical accuracy. In another MC technique, parallel tempering, several random walks, each corresponding to a different value of a parameter (e.g. "temperature"), are generated and occasionally exchanged using the Metropolis criterion. This method can be considered as a statistically correct version of simulated annealing. An alternative approach is to represent the set of independent variables as a Hamiltonian system. Considerab!e progress has been made in understanding how to ensure that the system obeys the equipartition theorem or, equivalently, that coupling between the variables is correctly described. Then a host of techniques developed for dynamical systems can be used. Among them, probably the most powerful is the Adaptive Biasing Force method, in which thermodynamic integration and biased sampling are combined to yield very efficient estimates of pdfs. The third class of methods deals with transitions between states described by rate constants. These problems are isomorphic with chemical kinetics problems. Recently, several efficient techniques for this purpose have been developed based on the approach originally proposed by Gillespie. Although the utility of the techniques mentioned above for Bayesian problems has not been determined, further research along these lines is warranted

Pohorille, Andrew↗