SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “State estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Co-Simulation Meets AI: MCP-Driven Power System Analysis

GridGPT, a fine-tuned Generative AI model is designed for on-premise use in grid control rooms. This presentation will demonstrate how eGridGPT can seamlessly integrate with control room solutions to offer operators, engineers, and corporate users enhanced guidance and decision support. It is to show how this innovative AI solution can improve state estimation, boost variable energy forecasting, and optimize grid operations. By leveraging eGridGPT's unique features, audience will learn to unlock new levels of automation, predictive analytics, and reliability within their power systems, ultimately leading to reduced downtime and improved operational efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Load Shedding Application Architecture and Bi-Level Predictive Estimator Algorithm

Increasing penetrations of distributed renewables are decreasing the effectiveness of traditional decentralized under-frequency load shedding (UFLS) schemes. As more distribution circuits begin to back-feed the transmission system, operation of traditional UFLS may exacerbate frequency instability. This paper presents the conceptual framework for a data-rich environment to coordinate UFLS across multiple distribution providers based on the laminar coordination framework in order to ensure optimal adaptive setting of UFLS relays. Communication and control are enabled through a distributed implementation of the IEC 61968-1 Common Information Model message bus structure. In addition to the proposed architecture, a novel adaptive UFLS scheme informed by a bi-level state estimator to create optimal relay setpoints is introduced. Initial simulation results are presented for the IEEE 14-bus test system on scenarios leading to mis-operation of traditional UFLS.

Anderson, Alexander A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Moving-horizon false data injection attack design against cyber–physical systems

Systematic attack design is essential to understanding the vulnerabilities of cyber–physical systems (CPSs), to better design for resiliency. In particular, false data injection attacks (FDIAs) are well-known and have been shown to be capable of bypassing bad data detection (BDD) while causing targeted biases in resulting state estimates. However, their effectiveness against moving horizon estimators (MHE) is not well understood. In fact, this paper shows that conventional FDIAs are generally ineffective against MHE. One of the main reasons is that the moving window renders the static FDIA recursively infeasible. Here, this paper proposes a new attack methodology, moving-horizon FDIA (MH-FDIA), by considering both the performance of historical attacks and the current system’s status. Theoretical guarantees for successful attack generation and recursive feasibility are given. Numerical simulations on the IEEE-14 bus system further validate the theoretical claims and show that the proposed MH-FDIA outperforms state-of-the-art counterparts in both stealthiness and effectiveness. In addition, an experiment on a path-tracking control system of an autonomous vehicle shows the feasibility of the MH-FDIA in real-world nonlinear systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Toward quantum computing for high-energy excited states in molecular systems: quantum phase estimations of core-level states

This paper explores the utility of the quantum phase estimation (QPE) in calculating high-energy excited states characterized by promotions of electrons occupying inner energy shells. These states have been intensively studied over the last few decades especially in supporting the experimental effort at light sources. Results obtained with the QPE are compared with various high-accuracy many-body techniques developed to describe core-level states. The feasibility of the quantum phase estimator in identifying classes of challenging shake-up states characterized by the presence of higher-order excitation effects is also discussed.

Bauman, Nicholas P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian GAN-Based False Data Injection Attack Detection in Active Distribution Grids With DERs

Advancements in information and communication technologies have revolutionized monitoring and control capabilities within smart grids. However, it also brings new vulnerabilities to data acquisition systems and state estimation functions, which attackers can subtly tamper with the measurement data through compromising the communication network. Moreover, the high penetration of renewable energy sources with the inherited characteristics of uncertainty and variability further complicates the design of effective intrusion detection systems. In this paper, a Bayesian deep learning-based approach is developed to detect cyber attacks and maintain the security of smart grids. Our method specifically addresses the prevalent issue of imbalanced data in real power systems, which arises from the predominance of normal system operations over compromised or attacked states. Employing a novel Bayesian GAN-based technique, our approach successfully discriminates between secure and compromised measurement data, even in scenarios with significant data imbalance. Furthermore, the proposed method accommodates various practical application factors, ensuring accurate intrusion detection despite the presence of measurement noise. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed detection mechanism are validated by testing on IEEE 13-node and 123-node test systems. Simulation results and comparisons with literature methods demonstrate the superiority of proposed cybersecurity solutions.

Bayesian GAN↗

DOE OSTI2026

BMINN: Learning chemical potentials and parameters from voltage data for multi-phase battery modeling

Free-energy landscapes and chemical potentials govern the dynamics of phase transitions, transport, and stability in functional materials, yet they remain experimentally inaccessible under realistic operating conditions. Here we introduce a Bayesian model-integrated neural network (BMINN) that embeds physics-based formulations of non-autonomous partial differential-algebraic equations into probabilistic learning. This approach reconstructs hidden thermodynamics directly from macroscopic current-voltage data, providing quantitative access to metastable states, staging transitions, and energy barriers without synchrotron probes. Demonstrated on lithium-graphite electrodes, BMINN recovers full Gibbs free-energy landscapes with fidelity validated against operando X-ray diffraction. The framework generalizes across dynamical regimes, enabling accurate voltage prediction, internal state estimation, and inference of governing parameters. Beyond batteries, BMINN exemplifies a broadly applicable strategy for learning missing physics in multiphase, non-equilibrium systems, offering a new pathway to uncover hidden thermodynamic functions across condensed matter and materials physics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Symmetric-asymmetric collision comparison: Disentangling nuclear structure and subnucleonic structure effects for small system flow

Previous flow measurements in small collision systems were mostly based on highly asymmetric collisions (p+Pb, p+Au, d+Au, 3 He+Au), where both nuclear structure and subnucleonic fluctuations are important. Comparing these asymmetric systems with the newly available symmetric 16 O+ 16 O collisions at RHIC and LHC provides a unique opportunity to disentangle these two contributions. Using Glauber models incorporating both nucleon and quark-level substructure, we analyze multiplicity distributions and initial-state estimators: eccentricities ε n for anisotropic flow ν n and inverse transverse size d ⟂ for radial flow. We find that subnucleonic fluctuations impact O+O collisions differently from asymmetric systems, creating specific patterns in flow observables that enable disentangling the competing contributions. Such experimental comparisons will reduce uncertainties in the initial conditions and improve our understanding of the properties of the QGP-like medium produced in small systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lab-Scale Cable-Driven Parallel Robot Prototype for Automated Prefabricated Component Manipulation

This paper presents the design and evaluation of a lab-scale cable-driven parallel robot (CDPR) developed as a flexible platform for automated installation of prefabricated components onto exterior building envelopes. Traditional manual installation methods for prefabricated components, which depend on scaffolding, cranes, cherry pickers, and verbal coordination, are not only labor-intensive and error-prone but also face significant limitations in dense urban environments due to site access constraints. To address these challenges, we developed a lab-scale CDPR platform capable of autonomously transporting building envelope components from a designated pickup zone to their target installation location, minimizing the need for human intervention. This study describes the system’s mechanical design, actuation architecture, real-time feedback system, and control strategy of the CDPR, and evaluates its performance in a laboratory environment. The robot’s actuation system uses torque control for end-effector manipulation. The robot’s real-time pose feedback comes from a construction-grade total station and a wireless inertial measurement unit (IMU), which together support precise end-effector control. Experimental results demonstrate the successful integration of the hardware, sensing, state estimation, and control subsystems. Preliminary tests showed that our lab-scale prototype can position the end effector with an error of less than 3 mm, which is a level of precision not previously achieved by existing CDPRs in construction applications. The key findings are twofold: (1) torque-only control is necessary but not sufficient for minimizing final pose error, and (2) incorporating real-time pose feedback can achieve the desired placement accuracy.

Liu, Yifang [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessments of epistemic uncertainty using Gaussian stochastic weight averaging for fluid-flow regression

Here, we use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the epistemic uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight, given training data, and a constant learning rate. Having access to this distribution, it is able to create multiple models with various combinations of sampled weights, which can be used to obtain ensemble predictions. The average of such an ensemble can be regarded as the 'mean estimation', whereas its standard deviation can be used to construct 'confidence intervals', which enable us to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) with regard to the training process of neural networks. We utilize representative neural-network-based function approximation tasks for the following cases: (i) a two-dimensional circular-cylinder wake; (ii) the DayMET dataset (maximum daily temperature in North America); (iii) a three-dimensional square-cylinder wake; and (iv) urban flow, to assess the generalizability of the present idea for a wide range of complex datasets. SWAG-based UQ can be applied regardless of the network architecture, and therefore, we demonstrate the applicability of the method for two types of neural networks: (i) global field reconstruction from sparse sensors by combining convolutional neural network (CNN) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and (ii) far-field state estimation from sectional data with two-dimensional CNN. We find that SWAG can obtain physically-interpretable confidence-interval estimates from the perspective of epistemic uncertainty. This capability supports its use for a wide range of problems in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Load Margin Constrained Moving Target Defense against False Data Injection Attacks

Cyber physical security of power systems with high penetration of renewable generation has attracted attention from researchers. One critical issue is that cyber-physical attacks, disguised as uncertain renewable generation, can target conventional power system state estimation (SE). Moving target defense (MTD) is a promising defense strategy to detect stealthy false data injection (FDI) attacks against SE. However, all existing studies myopically perturb the reactance of transmission lines equipped with distributed flexible AC transmission system (D-FACTS) devices without adequately considering the system voltage stability. Exacerbated by the renewable generation uncertainty, existing MTD may cause voltage instability when the power grid is under stress. To address this issue, we propose a novel MTD framework that explicitly considers system voltage stability by using continuation power flow. We utilize the sensitivity matrix of power injection to line impedance, on which an optimization problem for maximizing load margin is formulated. This framework is validated on the IEEE 14-bus system and the IEEE 118-bus system, in which net load redistribution attacks are launched by sophisticated attackers. Steady-state simulations and dynamic simulations on PSS/E show the effectiveness of the proposed framework in circumventing the voltage instability while maintaining the detection effectiveness of MTD. The impact of the proposed method on attack detection effectiveness is also revealed.

Zhang, Hang↗

DOE OSTI2024

AquaPV: Foundational Analysis and Industry Guidance on Floating PV Results

This dataset contains results of the technical potential analysis of floating photovoltaics (FPV) on federally owned or permitted reservoirs in the United States. Estimates of the area of reservoirs that is technically feasible for FPV development are provided for reservoirs that are owned by the US Army Corps of Engineers or the US Bureau of Reclamation, or are associated with hydropower dams licensed by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Other associated data are included, such as estimates of the potential evaporative losses of FPV development, and whether the waterbody is associated with an energy community or disadvantaged community that could qualify it for investment or production tax credits. Data is provided both as a spreadsheet and in a geospatial format including the waterbody geometries. Please read the included readme for more detailed field definitions.

area↗

DOE OSTI2020

Battery system management through non-linear estimation of battery state of charge

Systems, methods, and computer media for battery system management and non-linear estimation of battery state of charge are provided herein. Battery data is received for a time period over which a battery system has operated. The battery data represents the actual performance of the battery system over the time period. Sub-periods of charging or discharging can be identified in the time period. For the sub-periods of time, a curve can be fit to the battery data. Using the curves for the battery data for the sub-periods of time, an expected performance of the battery system, over a range of states-of-charge, can be determined. Operating instructions for the battery system can be provided based on the expected performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Battery system management through non-linear estimation of battery state of charge

Crawford, Alasdair James↗

DOE OSTI2026

Real-Time Multiregional Market-to-Market Congestion Management Through Exchange of Relief Cost Curve

This paper introduces a novel method for multiregional market-to-market (M2M) coordinated congestion management. It identifies shortcomings in existing M2M approaches, where Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) exchange shadow prices and relief requests to optimize congestion relief allocations across interconnected regions. Two methods are proposed to enhance flow and price convergence. The first method proposes that both Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) use state-estimator flows directly to determine relief requirements, eliminating delays and potential oscillations caused by using market flows calculated from the prior period under existing M2M approach. The second method involves exchanging transmission relief cost curves, enabling each RTOs to integrate other RTOs' relief costs curve into its real-time security-constrained economic dispatch (SCED). This method can effectively extend the coordination to multiple transmission lines and across more than two RTOs. The alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is also applied to the M2M coordination problem and compared with the proposed methods. Case studies on small and large-scale systems demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Potential and Cost of Carbon Dioxide Removal Using Direct Air Capture with Land-Based Wind and Utility-Scale Photovoltaics

The rapid deployment of direct air capture and storage (DACS) is critical for achieving emission targets, necessitating precise evaluation of the scale and cost of carbon dioxide removal. This study examines the availability of land, electricity generation, and geologic CO 2 storage within the United States, estimating a technical potential for low-temperature, adsorbent-based DACS to remove approximately 9 gigatonnes of CO 2 annually. By 2050, a substantial portion of this removal could be achieved at net-removed costs below $\$$300/tonneCO 2 , though costs are highly variable depending on factors such as facility scale, construction expenses, climate-dependent productivity and heating efficiency, and geologic storage conditions. In the short term, DACS deployment will help identify key research priorities for advancing technology and reducing removal costs. Concurrently, there is an urgent need for scientifically robust and standardized frameworks for monitoring, reporting, and verifying DACS performance across both established and emerging technologies and energy sources.

Carbon capture↗

DOE OSTI2026

U.S. Distribution Transformer Demand Phase III - Key Drivers and Managing Demand [Slides]

This presentation demonstrates a significant analysis, on forecasting the demand for distribution transformers. The analysis is conducted for the United States, estimating the initial in-service capacity of these assets, and forecasting demand for these assets through 2050 with several sensitivities conducted. It examines not only demand for these assets, but importantly, how utility planning practices can impact the demand for theses assets in time. Under load growth scenarios, whether utilities practice like-for-like replacement strategies as failures occur, or whether they practice proactive up-sizing, anticipating electric load growth, can have major impacts on future demand. It also examines several other growth factors, such as the increasing demand for step-up transformers, which share many of the same characteristics as distribution transformers, and the demand for specific transformers for large project growth from data centers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Grid Topology Discovery Algorithm Evaluation of Suitability for Utility Deployment (CRADA 606 Final Report)

This work presents the results of a field-informed demonstration aimed at evaluating the practical suitability of a topology discovery algorithm for utility environments. We demonstrated an algorithm that uses a graph-theory-informed state estimation approach for model selection. In collaboration with Survalent and Peninsula Light Co., the algorithm was applied to real feeder models and field measurements from supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) systems to identify the operational topology of a power distribution system. The demonstration assessed the algorithm’s performance under realistic data conditions, including sparse and noisy measurements, and examined its ability to identify the most likely network configurations. The results confirmed that the approach can effectively narrow down feasible topologies, providing operators with improved situational awareness of network status. Key lessons learned emphasize the need for systematic data validation and strategic sensor placement to enhance observability. These insights inform future deployment strategies and guide refinements for broader adoption in utility operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Performance Enhancement for Nonlinear Stochastic Systems Using RBF Driven Nonlinear Compensation with Extended Kalman Filter

In this paper, a novel hybrid control method is proposed to enhance the control performance of the PI based control system for a class of nonlinear and non-Gaussian stochastic dynamic processes with unmeasurable states. Firstly, to enhance the tracking performance of the PI controller where the PI parameters are fixed in many actual control systems, the compensative signal is formed using the extended Kalman filter(EKF) based state estimator and driven by the radial basis function (RBF) neural network based compensator. In addition, the weights of RBF is trained to minimize the entropy criterion of tracking error as the process is subjected to non-Gaussian disturbances. Meanwhile, since the precise statistical property of noises is hard to obtain for many industrial processes, the kernel density estimation (KDE) technique is employed in this paper to estimate the entropy. The convergence of RBF network is discussed and the stability of the resulted closed-loop hybrid control system is analyzed in mean square sense. Finally, a numerical example and a practical system testing are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control method.

stochastic systems, PI Controller, Entropy, Extend↗