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DOE OSTI2021

Improved Bounds for Burning Fence Graphs

Graph burning studies how fast a contagion, modeled as a set of fires, spreads in a graph. The burning process takes place in synchronous, discrete rounds. In each round, a fire breaks out at a vertex, and the fire spreads to all vertices that are adjacent to a burning vertex. Additionally, the burning number of a graph G is the minimum number of rounds necessary for each vertex of G to burn. We consider the burning number of the $m \times n$ Cartesian grid graphs, written $G_{m,n}$ . For $m = \omega (\sqrt{n})$ , the asymptotic value of the burning number of $G_{m,n}$ was determined, but only the growth rate of the burning number was investigated in the case $m = O(\sqrt{n})$ , which we refer to as fence graphs. We provide new explicit bounds on the burning number of fence graphs $G_{c\sqrt{n},n}$ , where $c > 0$ .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Strategies for Overcoming Resolution Limits in Electron Beam Lithography of Chemically Amplified Resists

Electron beam lithography (EBL) of chemically amplified resists (CARs) faces fundamental challenges, including stochastic electron scattering and acid diffusion, that limit resolution and reproducibility. Using SU-8 as a model CAR, this study systematically investigated complementary strategies to address these challenges, combining multipass exposure, proximity effect correction (PEC) with midrange correction factors, base quencher incorporation, and post-exposure bake (PEB) suppression. Monte Carlo simulations and calibrated PEC modeling revealed that extending the point spread function to include a midrange scattering component significantly improved critical dimension (CD) control across varying pattern densities, correcting deviations that conventional two-term PEC failed to capture. Multipass exposure, particularly 4-pass writing with a 25% offset, redistributed the dose to average stochastic beam and scattering fluctuations, reducing line-width roughness by more than 50% and yielding more uniform nanoscale features. Photoacid confinement was investigated by adding urea as a base quencher, which successfully reduced acid diffusion but introduced substantial sensitivity penalties without improving ultimate resolution or Z-factor performance, underscoring the trade-offs of chemical versus physical confinement. Suppressing PEB most directly minimized acid diffusion, resulting in improved Z-factors and reproducible 30 nm half-pitch dense line/space patterns. Overall, these results demonstrated that PEC with midrange correction, multipass strategies, quencher additives, and PEB-free processing addresses different aspects of the EBL process window and that their integration provides a comprehensive framework for managing stochastic scattering, diffusion, and chemical amplification effects. This framework advances dense nanoscale patterning in CARs and establishes guiding principles for optimizing resist design and process strategies in high-resolution EBL and potentially other advanced lithographies, such as extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Robust increase in South Asian monsoon rainfall under warming driven by extratropical clouds and ocean

The responses of South Asian Monsoon (SAM) circulation under global warming are known to be highly uncertain, leading to the wide spread of SAM rainfall projections among models. Here, we show that the uncertain SAM circulation in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models consists of two robust components that partly offset each other: a weakening component linked to a global thermodynamic constraint and a northward shift component understood through a regional 2D energetic perspective. We further attribute the robust northward shift of SAM circulation to positive cloud feedback over the Eurasia Continent and heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. A set of climate model simulations supports the finding that SAM rainfall increase is primarily due to the northward shift of circulation driven by extratropical processes. This energetic perspective opens new avenues for predicting monsoon rainfall by connecting circulation changes to radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensing depths in frequency domain thermoreflectance

In this work, a method is developed to calculate the length into a sample to which a Frequency Domain Thermoreflectance (FDTR) measurement is sensitive. Sensing depth and sensing radius are defined as limiting cases for the spherically spreading FDTR measurement. A finite element model for FDTR measurements is developed in COMSOL multiphysics and used to calculate sensing depth and sensing radius for silicon and silicon dioxide samples for a variety of frequencies and laser spot sizes. The model is compared to experimental FDTR measurements. Design recommendations for sample thickness are made for experiments where semi-infinite sample depth is desirable. For measurements using a metal transducer layer, the recommended sample thickness is three thermal penetration depths, as calculated from the lowest measurement frequency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling and design of compact, permanent-magnet transport systems for highly divergent, broad energy spread laser-driven proton beams

Laser-driven (LD) ion acceleration has been explored in a newly constructed short focal length laser beamline at the BELLA petawatt facility (interaction point 2, iP2). For applications utilizing such LD ion beams, a beam transport system is required, which for reasons of compactness be ideally contained within 3 m. While they are generated from a micron-scale source, large divergence and energy spread of LD ion beams present a unique challenge to transporting them compared to beams from conventional accelerators. This study gives an overview of proposed compact transport designs using permanent magnets satisfying different requirements depending on the application for the iP2 laser beamline such as radiation biology, material science, and high-energy density science. These designs are optimized for different parameters such as energy spread and peak proton density according to the application’s need. The various designs consist solely of permanent magnet elements, which can provide high magnetic field gradients on a small footprint. While the field strengths are fixed, we have shown that the beam size is able to be tuned effectively by varying the placement of the magnets. The performance of each design was evaluated based on high-order particle tracking simulations of typical LD proton beams. We also examine the ability of certain configurations to tune and select beam energies, critical for specific applications. A more detailed investigation was carried out for a design to deliver 10 MeV LD accelerated ions for radiation biology applications. With these transport system designs, the iP2 laser beamline is ready to house various application experiments.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

EpiCast: Simulating Epidemics with Extreme Detail

In early 2020, COVID-19 swept the globe. Governments attempted to “flatten the curve” through business shutdowns and stay-at-home orders, but the United States was hit hard. By the end of March, mere months after the virus first emerged in humans 7,000 miles away, the U.S. had recorded 192,300 cases and 5,300 deaths. While this unprecedented disaster sent shockwaves through every level of society and clouded an uncertain future, state and local governments turned to computational and mathematical epidemiology researchers to help formulate intervention strategies to limit the spread of the disease. Traditional forecasting models provided a reasonable understanding of how the near future was likely to look, but local policy makers and public health communities still struggled to understand how potential mitigations ought to be implemented. Decision makers needed a way to measure the impact of their policy choices—they needed better technology. EpiCast answered the call, bringing urgently needed answers to policymakers grappling with how to adjust school and business schedules. EpiCast is modeling software that generates a synthetic, representative population to simulate infectious disease transmission in the United States with extreme detail and granularity. The software models human behavior combined with community-specific information to provide a fine-grained preview of the effect of potential mitigation strategies for decision makers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Light elements Na and Al in 58 bulge spheroid stars from APOGEE

ABSTRACT We identified a sample of 58 candidate stars with metallicity [Fe/H] ≲ −0.8 that likely belong to the old bulge spheroid stellar population, and analyse their Na and Al abundances from Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) spectra. In a previous work, we inspected APOGEE-Stellar Parameter and Chemical Abundance Pipeline abundances of C, N, O, Mg, Al, Ca, Si, and Ce in this sample. Regarding Na lines, one of them appears very strong in about 20 per cent of the sample stars, but it is not confirmed by other Na lines, and can be explained by sky lines, which affect the reduced spectra of stars in a certain radial velocity range. The Na abundances for 15 more reliable cases were taken into account. Al lines in the H band instead appear to be very reliable. Na and Al exhibit a spread in abundances, whereas no spread in N abundances is found, and we found no correlation between them, indicating that these stars could not be identified as second-generation stars that originated in globular clusters. We carry out the study of the behaviour of Na and Al in our sample of bulge stars and literature data by comparing them with chemodynamical evolution model suitable for the Galactic bulge. The Na abundances show a large spread, and the chemodynamical models follow the main data, whereas for aluminum instead, the models reproduce very satisfactorily the nearly secondary-element behaviour of aluminum in the metallicity range below [Fe/H] ≲ −1.0. For the lower-metallicity end ([Fe/H < −2.5), hypernovae are assumed to be the main contributor to yields.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

When Will MISR Detect Rising High Clouds?

It is predicted by both theory and models that high-altitude clouds will occur higher in the atmosphere as a result of climate warming. This produces a positive longwave feedback and has a substantial impact on the Earth's response to warming. This effect is well established by theory, but is poorly constrained by observations, and there is large spread in the feedback strength between climate models. For this study, we use the NASA Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) to examine changes in Cloud-Top-Height (CTH). MISR uses a stereo-imaging technique to determine CTH. This approach is geometric in nature and insensitive to instrument calibration and therefore is well suited for trend analysis and studies of variability on long time scales. In this article we show that the current MISR record does have an increase in CTH for high-altitude cloud over Southern Hemisphere (SH) oceans but not over Tropical or the Northern Hemisphere (NH) oceans. We use climate model simulations to estimate when MISR might be expected to detect trends in CTH, that include the NH. The analysis suggests that according to the models used in this study MISR should detect changes over the SH ocean earlier than the NH, and if the model predictions are correct should be capable of detecting a trend over the Tropics and NH very soon (3–10 years). This result highlights the potential value of a follow-on mission to MISR, which no longer maintains a fixed equator crossing time and is unlikely to be making observations for another 10 years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Cosmology from cosmic shear power spectra

Here, we measure weak lensing cosmic shear power spectra from the 3-year galaxy shear catalog of the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) Subaru Strategic Program imaging survey. The shear catalog covers 416 deg 2 of the northern sky, with a mean i-band seeing of 0.59 arcsec and an effective galaxy number density of 15 arcmin —2 within our adopted redshift range. With an i-band magnitude limit of 24.5 mag, and four tomographic redshift bins spanning 0.3 ≤ z ph ≤ 1.5 based on photometric redshifts, we obtain a high-significance measurement of the cosmic shear power spectra, with a signal-to-noise ratio of approximately 26.4 in the multipole range 300 < ℓ < 1800. The accuracy of our power spectrum measurement is tested against realistic mock shear catalogs, and we use these catalogs to get a reliable measurement of the covariance of the power spectrum measurements. We use a robust blinding procedure to avoid confirmation bias, and model various uncertainties and sources of bias in our analysis, including point spread function systematics, redshift distribution uncertainties, the intrinsic alignment of galaxies and the modeling of the matter power spectrum. For a flat Λ CDM model, we find S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = ${0.776}_{—0.033}^{+0.032}$, which is in excellent agreement with the constraints from the other HSC Year 3 cosmology analyses, as well as those from a number of other cosmic shear experiments. This result implies a ~2σ-level tension with the Planck 2018 cosmology. We study the effect that various systematic errors and modeling choices could have on this value, and find that they can shift the best-fit value of S 8 by no more than ~ 0.5σ, indicating that our result is robust to such systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A thermodynamics-based damage model for the non-linear mechanical behavior of SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composites in irradiation and thermal environments

A damage model is developed and validated with experimental data for the non-linear mechanical behavior of SiC/SiC composite materials in nuclear applications. Cyclic thermal and mechanical loading associated with neutron irradiation effects of these composites leads to wide-spread and progressive micro-cracking that leads to loss of thermal conductivity and further enhancement of thermo-mechanical damage. A physics-based model of wide-spread micro-cracking is developed within the thermodynamic framework of continuum damage mechanics. Evolution equations for damage parameters that describe the growth of continuum damage are developed, where the material variables are obtained from experiments. The model novelty is in coupling mechanical, thermal, and irradiation damage through a consistent thermodynamic framework, including loss of thermal conductivity due to the evolution of mechanically induced micro-cracks. A number of thermo-mechanical experiments were conducted to confirm model assumptions. The model is shown to be validated with out-of-pile experiments, and then implemented using commercial finite element code COMSOL to the fuel cladding problem with normal and high radiation dose cases.

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning and artificial intelligence for wildfire prediction

Wildfire ignition, intensity, and spread rates are tightly linked with water cycle extremes. The science of wildfire prediction has traditionally encompassed the use of physical and empirical models to quantify the direction and speed of fire spread, plume injection and fire-aerosol impacts on atmospheric composition, predictions of fire season severity on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales, and assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns of fire risk across landscapes. Together with expanding observation networks, machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) have the potential to revolutionize the application of such models for fire science, saving lives, protecting critical infrastructure, and providing more accurate estimates of wildfire-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The APOGEE Library of Infrared SSP Templates (A-LIST): High-resolution Simple Stellar Population Spectral Models in the H Band

Integrated light spectroscopy from galaxies can be used to study the stellar populations that cannot be resolved into individual stars. This analysis relies on stellar population synthesis (SPS) techniques to study the formation history and structure of galaxies. However, the spectral templates available for SPS are limited, especially in the near-infrared (near-IR). We present A-LIST (APOGEE Library of Infrared SSP Templates), a new set of high-resolution, near-IR SSP spectral templates spanning a wide range of ages (2–12 Gyr), metallicities ( − 2.2 < [M/H] < + 0.4) and α abundances ( − 0.2 < [α/M] < + 0.4). This set of SSP templates is the highest resolution (R ∼ 22, 500) available in the near-IR, and the first such based on an empirical stellar library. Our models are generated using spectra of ∼300,000 stars spread across the Milky Way, with a wide range of metallicities and abundances, from the APOGEE survey. We show that our model spectra provide accurate fits to M31 globular cluster spectra taken with APOGEE, with best-fit metallicities agreeing with those of previous estimates to within ∼0.1 dex. We also compare these model spectra to lower-resolution E-MILES models and demonstrate that we recover the ages of these models to within ∼1.5 Gyr. This library is available in https://github.com/aishashok/ALIST-library.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

System Design of a 2.0 MWth Sodium/Molten Salt Pilot System

Nitrate molten salt concentrating solar power (CSP) systems are currently deployed globally and are considered state-of the art heat transfer fluids (HTFs) for present day high-temperature operation. Although slightly higher limits may be possible with molten salt, to fully realize SunShot efficiency goals of $15/kWhth HTFs and an LCOE of 6¢/kWh, HTF technologies working at higher temperatures (e.g., 650 °C to 750 °C) will require an alternative to molten salts, such as with alkali metal systems. This investigation explores the development of a 2.0 MWth sodium receiver system that employs a sodium receiver as the HTF, as well as with a ternary chloride (20%NaCl/40%MgCl/40%KCl by mol wt.%) salt as a thermal energy storage (TES) medium to facilitate a 6-hr. storage duration. A sodium-to-salt heat exchanger model as well as a salt-to-sCO2 primary heat exchanger model are employed and evaluated in this investigation. A thermodynamic system design model was developed using Engineering Equation Solver (EES) where state properties were calculated at inlets and outlets along both hot and cold legs of the pilot-scale plant. This investigation assesses receiver performance as well as system efficiency studies for the pump and system operational ranges. Results found that high efficiency sodium receivers were found to have higher heat transfer coefficients and required far less spreading of incident flux. The system performance model results suggest that for a pump speed of 2400 RPM, respective hot and cold pump TDH values were determined to be 260.1–307 ft. and 260.1–307 ft for pump flow rates of 90–120 GPM.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Mathematical Model of ATM Activation and Chromatin Relaxation by Ionizing Radiation

We propose a comprehensive mathematical model to study the dynamics of ionizing radiation induced Ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) activation that consists of ATM activation through dual mechanisms: the initiative activation pathway triggered by the DNA damage-induced local chromatin relaxation and the primary activation pathway consisting of a self-activation loop by interplay with chromatin relaxation. The model is expressed as a series of biochemical reactions, governed by a system of differential equations and analyzed by dynamical systems techniques. Radiation induced double strand breaks (DSBs) cause rapid local chromatin relaxation, which is independent of ATM but initiates ATM activation at damage sites. Key to the model description is how chromatin relaxation follows when active ATM phosphorylates KAP-1, which subsequently spreads throughout the chromatin and induces global chromatin relaxation. Additionally, the model describes how oxidative stress activation of ATM triggers a self-activation loop in which PP2A and ATF2 are released so that ATM can undergo autophosphorylation and acetylation for full activation in relaxed chromatin. In contrast, oxidative stress alone can partially activate ATM because phosphorylated ATM remains as a dimer. The model leads to predictions on ATM mediated responses to DSBs, oxidative stress, or both that can be tested by experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

CANA v1.0.0: efficient quantification of canalization in automata networks

The biomolecular networks underpinning cell function exhibit canalization, or the buffering of fluctuations required to function in a noisy environment. We present a new major release of $\tt{CANA}$, v1.0.0, an open-source Python package for understanding canalization in automata network models, discrete dynamical systems in which activation of biomolecular entities (e.g. transcription of genes) is modeled as the activity of coupled automata. One understudied putative mechanism for canalization is the functional equivalence of biomolecular regulators (e.g. among the transcription factors for a gene). We study this mechanism using the theory of symmetry in discrete functions. We present a new exact method, $\tt{schematodes}$, for finding maximal symmetry groups among the inputs to discrete functions, and integrate it into $\tt{CANA}$. The $\tt{schematodes}$ method substantially outperforms the inexact method of previous $\tt{CANA}$ versions both in speed and accuracy. We apply $\tt{CANA}$ v1.0.0 to study symmetry in 74 experimentally supported automata network models from the Cell Collective (CC) repository. The symmetry distribution is significantly different in the CC than in random automata with the same in-degree (connectivity) and bias (average output) (Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, P ≪ .001). Its spread is much wider than in a null model (IQR 0.31 versus IQR 0.20 with equal medians), demonstrating that the CC is enriched in functions with extreme symmetry or asymmetry.

Boolean networks↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effects of slope steepness and cross-slope wind speed on fire spreading behavior for various vegetation

Wildland fire behavior is significantly influenced by environmental factors such as slope steepness, wind speed, and fuel type. Understanding these interactions is critical for improving predictive models and fire management. This study explores how slope steepness and cross-slope wind speed influence fire spread dynamics in various fuel bed types. Simulations are conducted using a physics-based wildland fire model, HIGRAD/FIRETEC, across six slope angles (0–50 %), four cross-slope wind speeds (4–10 m s –1 ), and three fuel bed types (grass, shrubland, and forest). Representative cases are additionally compared with FARSITE fireline evolution. Fire behavior is categorized into distinct propagation types based on spread characteristics and analyzed. The fire propagation angle, which indicates deviation from the wind direction, generally increases with steeper slopes and decreases with stronger cross-slope winds. Secondary upslope propagation is observed in shrubland under moderate slopes, while secondary downwind propagation occurs in all fuel beds at higher wind speeds. These findings highlight fire spread characteristics that differ from predictions by traditional models like Rothermel’s. By capturing complex propagation patterns and dynamics, this study demonstrates the value of a physics-based, atmosphere-fire coupled model for accurate wildland fire prediction. Incorporating secondary propagations and the influence of fuel bed complexities into predictive models can improve the accuracy of fire spread forecasts, enabling more effective fire management and risk mitigation efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate-Driven Limits to Future Carbon Storage in California's Wildland Ecosystems

Enhanced ecosystem carbon storage is a key component of many climate mitigation pathways. The State of California has set an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, relying in part on enhanced carbon sequestration in natural and working lands. We used statistical modeling, including random forest and climate analog approaches, to explore the climate-driven challenges and uncertainties associated with the goal of long-term carbon sequestration in forests and shrublands. We found that seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are strong controllers of the spatial distribution of aboveground live carbon. RCP8.5 projections of temperature and precipitation are estimated to drive decreases of 16.1% ± 7.5% in aboveground live carbon by the end of the century, with coastal areas of central and northern California and low/mid-elevation mountain areas being most vulnerable. With RCP4.5 projections, declines are less severe, with 8.8% ± 5.3% carbon loss. In either scenario, increases in temperature systematically cause biomass declines, and the spread of projected precipitation across 32 CMIP5 models contributes to substantial uncertainty in the magnitude of that decline. Projected changes in the environmental niche for the 20 most biomass-dominant tree species revealed widespread replacement of conifers by oak species in low elevation regions of central and northern California, with a corresponding decline in carbon storage depending on expected migration rates. The spatial patterns of vulnerability we identify may allow policymakers to assess where carbon sequestration in aboveground biomass is an appropriate part of a climate mitigation portfolio, and where future climate-driven carbon losses may be a liability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Behavior of Natural Seep Vents: Analysis of Field and Laboratory Observations and Modeling (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

In this project, we have analyzed data collected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in a high pressure water tunnel (HPWT) and data from two research cruises to natural seeps in the Gulf of Mexico to adapt and validate a numerical model to predict the dynamics of natural seeps in the deep oceans. The HPWT data include video observations of the shrinkage rate of individual methane and natural gas bubbles under simulated deep-water conditions. Field data were collected during two cruises by the Gulf Integrated Spill Research (GISR) Consortium led by Texas A&M University and funded by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI). These data included in situ observations from a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) of gas bubbles at two natural seep sites in the Gulf and acoustic observations of the natural seep bubble flares in the ocean water column. The acoustic data were from multibeam echosounders, one mounted in a forward-looking orientation on the ROV and another mounted down-looking in the haul of the ship. All of these laboratory and field data were focused on the dynamics of natural gas bubbles at temperatures and pressures favorable for clathrate hydrate formation between the gas and water. Our analyses of this data focused on understanding the mechanisms responsible for gas bubble dissolution within the hydrate stability zone (HSZ) of the oceans. Ice-like hydrate shells may form on the bubble-water interface under these conditions, and it was unknown how this might affect the mass transfer of gas into the ocean. We were able to extract bubble shrinkage rates from the HPWT datasets. Using this data we determined that mass transfer coefficients with and without a hydrate shell match empirical values for bubbles in contaminated systems (so-called dirty bubbles contaminated by naturally occurring surfactants). We also showed that free gas, and not gas hydrate, is the dominant dissolving phase when the hydrate sub-cooling is below 11 degree Celsius (temperature difference between hydrate the hydrate formation temperature and ambient temperator) or the pressure is reducing as bubbles rise through the ocean water column. Using this mass transfer model, our numerical model of bubble dissolution matched the over 200 HPWT experiments with an average error of 10% for predicting the bubble size at the end of an experiment. From field data in the literature, we also observed that gas bubbles dissolve faster when they are initially released, following mass transfer coefficients for so-called clean-bubbles (those not yet contaminated by surfactants). Shortly after release within the HSZ, a hydrate shell forms on the bubble-water interface, and the mass transfer reduces to rates matching those of dirty bubbles. We correlated this transition time from clean to dirty bubble behavior with the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate sub-cooling. With this model for hydrate formation time and using the mass transfer coefficients deduced from the HPWT data, we validated our numerical model for predicting the rise heights of natural seep flares in the oceans. Flare heights are commonly observed in haul-mounted acoustic multibeam data. The numerical model predicts bubbles to rise high in the ocean water column owing to the slower mass transfer rates for dirty bubbles that accompany the majority of their rise time. We found that the numerical model predictions matched the observed flare heights within 5% to 10% accuracy when we compared the rise heights of the largest bubbles released from the seafloor with the bubbles acoustically visible in the multibeam data. Bubbles become acoustically transparent as they shrink to sizes of order 1 mm in diameter for the multibeam frequencies used in the field. The forward-looking multibeam on the ROV also provided data on the lateral spreading of bubbles in natural seep flares. Our analysis of this data showed that spreading follows a diffusion process, with the effective diffusivity correlating with the wobbling length scale of these ellipsoidal bubbles. When we apply this diffusivity in a random displacement model of bubble spreading, our numerical simulations match closely the lateral spread observed by the M3 in the ocean water column. Finally, we compared the seep model predictions for the acoustic properties of these natural seep plumes with that observed by the acoustic instruments in the field. The M3 and EM 302 observations were converted to relative values of target strength using a calibration we obtained in the laboratory for the M3 and using an algorithm from the manufacturer for the EM 302. Comparing the numerical seep model to these data, we obtain good agreement over the whole height of rise of these bubble flares. This further validates the numerical model. Overall, our validated seep model captures the key dynamics of gas bubbles released from natural seeps in the oceans and helps to predict the fate of methane in the water column.

03 NATURAL GAS↗