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At least 235 records · Page 13

Predictive Modeling of Fast-Curing Thermosets in Nozzle-Based Extrusion

This work presents an approach to modeling the dynamic spreading and curing behavior of thermosets in nozzle-based extrusions. Thermosets cover a wide range of materials, some of which permit low-temperature processing with subsequent high-temperature and high-strength working properties. Extruding thermosets may overcome the limited working temperatures and strengths of conventional thermoplastic materials used in additive manufacturing. This project aims to produce technology for the fabrication of thermoset-based structures leveraging advances made in nozzle-based extrusion, such as fused deposition modeling (FDM), material jetting, and direct writing. Understanding the synergistic interactions between spreading and fast curing of extruded thermosetting materials will provide essential insights for applications that require accurate dimensional controls, such as additive manufacturing [1], [2] and centrifugal coating/forming [3]. Two types of thermally curing thermosets -- one being a soft silicone (Ecoflex 0050) and the other being a toughened epoxy (G/Flex) -- served as the test materials in this work to obtain models for cure kinetics and viscosity. The developed models align with extensive measurements made with differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and rheology. DSC monitors the change in the heat of reaction, which reflects the rate and degree of cure at different crosslinking stages. Rheology measures the change in complex viscosity, shear moduli, yield stress, and other properties dictated by chemical composition. By combining DSC and rheological measurements, it is possible to establish a set of models profiling the cure kinetics and chemorheology without prior knowledge of chemical composition, which is usually necessary for sophisticated mechanistic modeling. In this work, we conducted both isothermal and dynamic measurements with both DSC and rheology. With the developed models, numerical simulations yielded predictions of diameter and height of droplets, along with width and height of extruded lines cured at varied temperatures. Experimental results carried out on a goniometric platform and a nozzle-based 3D printer showed agreement with the numerical simulations. Finally, this presentation will show how the models are adaptable to the planning of tool paths and designs in additive manufacturing.

Xie, Jingjin↗

The Dependence of Mean Climate State on Shortwave Absorption by Water Vapor

Abstract State-of-the-art climate models exhibit significant spread in the climatological value of atmospheric shortwave absorption (SWA). This study investigates both the possible causes and climatic impacts of this SWA intermodel spread. The intermodel spread of global-mean SWA largely originates from the intermodel difference in water vapor shortwave absorptivity. Hence, we alter the water vapor shortwave absorptivity in the Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CESM1-CAM4). Increasing the water vapor shortwave absorptivity leads to a reduction in global-mean precipitation and a La Niña–like cooling over the tropical Pacific. The global-mean atmospheric energy budget suggests that the precipitation is suppressed as a way to compensate for the increased SWA. The precipitation reduction is driven by the weakened surface winds, stabilized planetary boundary layer, and surface cooling. The La Niña–like cooling over the tropical Pacific is attributed to the zonal asymmetry of climatological evaporative damping efficiency and the low cloud enhancement over the eastern basin. Complementary fixed SSTs simulations suggest that the latter is more fundamental and that it primarily arises from atmospheric processes. Consistent with our experiments, the CMIP5/6 models with a higher global-mean SWA tend to produce tropical Pacific toward a more La Niña–like mean state, highlighting the possible role of water vapor shortwave absorptivity for shaping the mean-state climate patterns.

Kim, Hanjun↗

Northern Winter Climate Change: Assessment of Uncertainty in CMIP5 Projections Related to Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling

Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

climate change↗

Flame spreading over a thin solid in low-speed concurrent flow- Drop tower experimental results and comparison with theory

Flame spread over thin paper samples in low-speed concurrent flow is experimentally investigated in a 5.18 s drop tower. In the experiment, the oxygen molar percentage is varied from 30% down to the flame extinction limits and the forced flow velocity from 5.29 cm/s down to the quenching limits. Motion pictures are taken to observe flame shape, color, size, and spread rates. These quantities are compared with a theoretical model describing concurrent flame spread over thin solids in low-speed flows. The paper also discusses the similarity and difference between concurrent-flow and opposed-flow flame spread in microgravity and between low-speed and high-speed concurrent-flow flame spread. Finally the limitations of using a drop tower for flame spread research is assessed.

Grayson, G. D.↗

In Pursuit of Improving Airburst and Ground Damage Predictions: Recent Advances in Multi-Body Aerodynamic Testing and Computational Tools Validation

An airburst from a large asteroid during entry can cause significant ground damage. The damage depends on the energy and the altitude of airburst. Breakup of asteroids into fragments and their lateral spread have been observed. Modeling the underlying physics of fragmented bodies interacting at hypersonic speeds and the spread of fragments is needed for a true predictive capability. Current models use heuristic arguments and assumptions such as pancaking or point source explosive energy release at pre-determined altitude or an assumed fragmentation spread rate to predict airburst damage. A multi-year collaboration between German Aerospace Center (DLR) and NASA has been established to develop validated computational tools to address the above challenge.

Asteroid↗

On the flame spreading over a polymer surface

The characteristics of flame propagation along the interface between a solid fuel and a gaseous oxidizer are considered. It is found that difficulties in a study of this problem are related to the eigenvalue character of the relative velocity of the flame with respect to the oxidizer flow. In the proposed model of flame spreading the difficulties are overcome by retaining the ellipticity of the governing equations and by taking the surface pyrolysis into account. The solution procedure makes use of a sink-source approach and the Fourier-transform method. Flame propagation velocity data computed on the basis of the described approach are compared with experimental results.

Ohki, Y.↗

Gravity-driven deformation of the crust on Venus

Intense horizontal deformation features are observed on the surface of Venus despite the apparent absence of terrestrial-style plate tectonics. High surface temperature, low erosion rate, and regions of elevated terrain suggest that gravity spreading may be responsible for some of these features. Gravity spreading on the Earth is known to cause extensive deformation in certain thin-skinned tectonic regions, where the uppermost layers become detached along a decollement. While the high pore pressures and soft sedimentary rocks frequently observed along decollements on the Earth are not plausible for Venus, temperature induced regions of ductile deformation may exist. Simple viscous models of gravity spreading above a ductile region of the crust are developed to examine the effects of rheology, thermal gradient, surface slope and crustal thickness on deformation. For a reasonable range of parameters, the models show that surface-slope-driven ductile deformation at relatively shallow depths in the crust is possible and may be capable of detaching the uppermost rigid portion of the crust, resulting in horizontal translation.

Smrekar, Suzanne↗

The coronavirus spread: the Italian case

A model based on population growth, chaotic maps and turbulent flows is applied to the spread of Coronavirus for each Italian region in order to obtain useful information and help to contrast it. We divide the regions into different risk categories and discuss anomalies. The worst cases are confined between the Appenine and the Alps mountain ranges but the situation seem to improve closer to the sea. The Veneto region gave the most efficient response so far and some of their resources could be diverted to other regions, in particular more tests to the Lombardia, Liguria, Piemonte, Marche and V. Aosta regions, which seem to be worst affected. We noticed worrying anomalies in the Lazio, Campania and Sicilia regions to be monitored. We stress that the number of fatalities we predicted on March 12 has been confirmed daily by the bulletins. This suggests a change of strategy in order to reduce such number maybe moving the weaker population (and negative to the virus test) to beach resorts, which should be empty presently. The ratio deceased/positives on April 4, 2020 is 5.4% worldwide, 12.3% in Italy, 1.4% in Germany, 2.7% in the USA, 10.3% in the UK and 4.1% in China. Furthermore, these large fluctuations should be investigated starting from the Italian regions, which show similar large fluctuations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts

This study compares the extreme heat and drought that developed over the United States in 2011 and 2012 with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Experiments with the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model show that the winter/spring response over the U.S. to the Pacific SST is remarkably similar for the two years despite substantial differences in the tropical Pacific SST. As such, the pronounced winter and early spring temperature differences between the two years (warmth confined to the south in 2011 and covering much of the continent in 2012) primarily reflect differences in the contributions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with both acting to cool the east and upper mid-west during 2011, while during 2012 the Indian Ocean reinforced the Pacific-driven continental-wide warming and the Atlantic played a less important role. During late spring and summer of 2011 the tropical Pacific SST force a continued warming and drying over the southern U.S., though considerably weaker than observed. Nevertheless, the observed anomalies fall within the models intra-ensemble spread. In contrast, the rapid development of intense heat and drying over the central U.S. during June and July of 2012 falls outside the models intra-ensemble spread. The response to the SST (a northward expansion of a modest summer warming linked to the Atlantic) gives little indication that 2012 would produce record-breaking precipitation deficits and heat in the central Great Plains. A diagnosis of the 2012 observed circulation anomalies shows that the most extreme heat and drought was tied to the development of a stationary Rossby wave and an associated anomalous upper tropospheric high maintained by weather transients.

SST Forcing↗

Assessing the representation of the Australian carbon cycle in global vegetation models

Australia plays an important role in the global terrestrial carbon cycle on inter-annual timescales. While the Australian continent is included in global assessments of the carbon cycle such as the global carbon budget, the performance of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) over Australia has rarely been evaluated. We assessed simulations of net biome production (NBP) and the carbon stored in vegetation between 1901 to 2018 from 13 DGVMs (TRENDY v8 ensemble). We focused our analysis on Australia's short-term (inter-annual) and long-term (decadal to centennial) terrestrial carbon dynamics. The TRENDY models simulated differing magnitudes of NBP on inter-annual timescales, and these differences resulted in significant differences in long-term vegetation carbon accumulation (–4.7 to 9.5 Pg C). We compared the TRENDY ensemble to several satellite-derived datasets and showed that the spread in the models' simulated carbon storage resulted from varying changes in carbon residence time rather than differences in net carbon uptake. Differences in simulated long-term accumulated NBP between models were mostly due to model responses to land-use change. The DGVMs also simulated different sensitivities to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration, although notably, the models with nutrient cycles did not simulate the smallest NBP response to CO 2 . Our results suggest that a change in the climate forcing did not have a large impact on the carbon cycle on long timescales. However, the inter-annual variability in precipitation drives the year-to-year variability in NBP. We analysed the impact of key modes of climate variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), on NBP. While the DGVMs agreed on sign of the response of NBP to El Niño and La Niña and to positive and negative IOD events, the magnitude of inter-annual variability in NBP differed strongly between models. In addition, we find that differences in the timing of simulated phenology and fire dynamics are associated with differences in simulated or prescribed vegetation cover and process representation. We further find model disagreement in simulated vegetation carbon, phenology, and apparent carbon residence time, indicating that the models have different types and coverage of vegetation across Australia (whether prescribed or emergent). Our study highlights the need to evaluate parameter assumptions and the key processes that drive vegetation dynamics, such as phenology, mortality, and fire, in an Australian context to reduce uncertainty across models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Alfven wave trapping, network microflaring, and heating in solar coronal holes

Fresh evidence that much of the heating in coronal holes is provided by Alfven waves is presented. This evidence comes from examining the reflection of Alfven waves in an isothermal hydrostatic model coronal hole with an open magnetic field. Reflection occurs if the wavelength is as long as the order of the scale height of the Alfven velocity. For Alfven waves with periods of about 5 min, and for realistic density, magnetic field strength, and magnetic field spreading in the model, the waves are reflected back down within the model hole if the coronal temperature is only slightly less than 1.0 x 10 to the 6th K, but are not reflected and escape out the top of the model if the coronal temperature is only slightly greater than 1.0 x 10 to the 6th K. Because the spectrum of Alfven waves in real coronal holes is expected to peak around 5 min and the temperature is observed to be close to 1.0 x 10 to the 6th K, the sensitive temperature dependence of the trapping suggests that the temperature in coronal holes is regulated by heating by the trapped Alfven waves.

Moore, R. L.↗

HST image restoration: A comparison of pre- and post-servicing mission results

A variety of image restoration techniques (e.g., Wiener filter, Lucy-Richardson, MEM) have been applied quite successfully to the aberrated HST images. The HST servicing mission (scheduled for late 1993 or early 1994) will install a corrective optics system (COSTAR) for the Faint Object Camera and spectrographs and replace the Wide Field/Planetary Camera with a second generation instrument (WF/PC-II) having its own corrective elements. The image quality is expected to be improved substantially with these new instruments. What then is the role of image restoration for the HST in the long term? Through a series of numerical experiments using model point-spread functions for both aberrated and unaberrated optics, we find that substantial improvements in image resolution can be obtained for post-servicing mission data using the same or similar algorithms as being employed now to correct aberrated images. Included in our investigations are studies of the photometric integrity of the restoration algorithms and explicit models for HST pointing errors (spacecraft jitter).

Hanisch, R. J.↗

Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios

Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and 34 CMIP6 climate projections for three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use a new set of statistical crop model emulators. We find that climate and crop models contribute about equally to overall uncertainty. While the ranges of yield uncertainties under CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are similar, median impact in aggregate total caloric production is typically more negative for the CMIP6 projections (+1% to −19%) than for CMIP5 (+5% to −13%). In the first half of the 21st century and for individual crops is the spread across crop models typically wider than that across climate models, but we find distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat and maize uncertainties are dominated by the crop models, but soybean and rice are more sensitive to the climate projections. Climate models with very similar global mean warming can lead to very different aggregate impacts so that climate model uncertainties remain a significant contributor to agricultural impacts uncertainty. These results show the utility of large-ensemble methods that allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting crop yields or other impacts under climate change. The crop model ensemble used here is unbalanced and pulls the assumption that all projections are equally plausible into question. Better methods for consistent model testing, also at the level of individual processes, will have to be developed and applied by the crop modeling community.

crop yield projections↗

Bayesian Calibration of Nuclear Graphite Property Models Accounting for Model Inadequacy and Impacts on Component Performance

Nuclear-grade structural graphite is extensively utilized in the core designs of various advanced nuclear reactors. In the reactor environment, graphite is subjected to prolonged exposure to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation, and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Such exposure can induce several degradation mechanisms in graphite, including nonuniform volumetric strains caused by irradiation and thermal expansion, leading to stresses that may compromise the performance of graphite components. Assessing component integrity requires accurate models of graphite's thermomechanical response. This report documents the Bayesian calibration of thermomechanical properties for nuclear-grade graphite and their application to graphite component modeling and simulation using the Grizzly code. As part of this work, uncertainty-quantified models were developed for the elastic modulus, coefficient of thermal expansion, irradiation-induced dimensional change, and irradiation-induced creep for graphite grades IG-110, NBG-18, NBG-17, PCEA, and 2114. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, multiple experimental data sources were combined to develop Gaussian process models for the properties. Using the Kennedy O'Hagan framework, the uncertainties due to inadequacies in the model and the inherent spread in the experimental data were quantified for three different models. These uncertainty-quantified models, with a model-form correction, were subsequently applied to a coupled-physics simulation of representative graphite components, revealing that the uncertainties have a large impact on the components' deformation.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simulations of ocean deoxygenation in the historical era: insights from forced and coupled models

Ocean deoxygenation due to anthropogenic warming represents a major threat to marine ecosystems and fisheries. Challenges remain in simulating the modern observed changes in the dissolved oxygen (O 2 ). Here, we present an analysis of upper ocean (0-700m) deoxygenation in recent decades from a suite of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) ocean biogeochemical simulations. The physics and biogeochemical simulations include both ocean-only (the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1 and 2, OMIP1 and OMIP2) and coupled Earth system (CMIP6 Historical) configurations. We examine simulated changes in the O 2 inventory and ocean heat content (OHC) over the past 5 decades across models. The models simulate spatially divergent evolution of O 2 trends over the past 5 decades. The trend (multi-model mean and spread) for upper ocean global O 2 inventory for each of the MIP simulations over the past 5 decades is 0.03 ± 0.39×10 14 [mol/decade] for OMIP1, -0.37 ± 0.15×10 14 [mol/decade] for OMIP2, and -1.06 ± 0.68×10 14 [mol/decade] for CMIP6 Historical, respectively. The trend in the upper ocean global O2 inventory for the latest observations based on the World Ocean Database 2018 is -0.98×10 14 [mol/decade], in line with the CMIP6 Historical multi-model mean, though this recent observations-based trend estimate is weaker than previously reported trends. A comparison across ocean-only simulations from OMIP1 and OMIP2 suggests that differences in atmospheric forcing such as surface wind explain the simulated divergence across configurations in O 2 inventory changes. Additionally, a comparison of coupled model simulations from the CMIP6 Historical configuration indicates that differences in background mean states due to differences in spin-up duration and equilibrium states result in substantial differences in the climate change response of O 2 . Finally, we discuss gaps and uncertainties in both ocean biogeochemical simulations and observations and explore possible future coordinated ocean biogeochemistry simulations to fill in gaps and unravel the mechanisms controlling the O 2 changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solid Surface Combustion Experiment Yields Significant Observations

The spread of a flame over solid fuel is not only a fundamental textbook combustion phenomenon, but also the central element of destructive fires that cause tragic loss of life and property each year. Throughout history, practical measures to prevent and fight fires have been developed, but these have often been based on lessons learned in a costly fire. Since the 1960 s, scientists and engineers have employed powerful tools of scientific research to understand the details of flame spread and how a material can be rendered nonflammable. High-speed computers have enabled complex flame simulations, whereasand lasers have provided measurements of the chemical composition, temperature, and air velocities inside flames. The microgravity environment has emerged as the third great tool for these studies. Spreading flames are complex combinations of chemical reactions and several physical processes including the transport of oxygen and fuel vapor to the flame and the transfer of heat from the flame to fresh fuel and to the surroundings. Depending on its speed, air motion in the vicinity of the flame can affect the flame in substantially different ways. For example, consider the difference between blowing on a campfire and blowing out a match. On Earth, gravity induces air motion because of buoyancy (the familiar rising hot gases); this process cannot be controlled experimentally. For theoreticians, buoyant air motion complicates the problem modeling of flame spread beyond the capacity of modern computers to simulate. The microgravity environment provides experimental control of air motion near spreading flames, with results that can be compared with detailed theory. The Solid Surface Combustion Experiment (SSCE) was designed to obtain benchmark flame spreading data in quiescent test atmospheres--the limiting case of flames spreading. Professor Robert Altenkirch, Vice President for Research at Mississippi State University, proposed the experiment concept, and the NASA Lewis Research Center designed, built, and tested the SSCE hardware. It was the first microgravity science experiment built by Lewis for the space shuttle and the first combustion science experiment flown in space.

Sacksteder, Kurt R.↗