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At least 235 records · Page 13

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R 0 ) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). Here, we further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Population Aging and Heat Exposure in the 21st Century: Which U.S. Regions Are at Greatest Risk and Why?

Abstract Background and Objectives The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure. We estimate county-level variations in older populations’ heat exposure in the early (1995–2014) and mid (2050) 21st century. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. Research Design and Methods We estimate older adults’ heat exposure in 3,109 counties in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Analyses use NASA NEX Global Daily Downscaled Product (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data and county-level projections for the size and distribution of the U.S. age 69+ population. Results Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the United States, with particular “hotspots” in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions. Discussion and Implications Interventions to address the impacts of temperature extremes on older adult well-being should consider the geographic distribution and drivers of this exposure. In historically cooler areas where climate change is driving exposures, investments in warning systems may be productive, whereas investments in health care and social services infrastructures are essential in historically hot regions where exposures are driven by population aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reflecting Sunlight: Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) report "Reflecting Sunlight: Recommendations for Solar Geoengineering Research and Research Governance" focused on three atmospheric-based Solar Geoengineering strategies: Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Marine Cloud Brightening, Cirrus Cloud Thinning. The study recommends that a national (and internationally-coordinated) Solar Geoengineering research program be established and coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program—with a focus on developing information needed by decision makers, not advancing a path to deployment. The study recommends a detailed framework for governance of this research, at both national and international levels. The study also recommends a detailed research agenda for this program, encompassing over a dozen transdisciplinary research topics that can be loosely grouped into the categories of (i) technical dimensions and impacts, (ii) social dimensions, and (iii) context and goals for solar geoengineering research itself.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ASCENDS: Advanced data SCiENce toolkit for Non-Data Scientists

Recently, advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence have been playing more and more critical roles in a wide range of areas. For the last several years, industries have shown that how learning from data, identifying patterns and making decisions with minimal human intervention can be extremely useful to their business (e.g., image classification, recommending a product to a customer, finding friends in a social network, predicting customers actions, etc.). These success stories have been motivating scientists who study physics, chemistry, materials, medicine, and many other subjects, to explore a new pathway of utilizing machine learning techniques like regression and classification for their scientific activities. However, most existing machine learning tools, systems, and methodologies have been developed for programming experts but not for scientists (or any users) who have no or little knowledge of programming. ASCENDS is a toolkit that is developed to assist scientists (or any persons) who want to use their data for machine learning tasks, more specifically, correlation analysis, regression, and classification. ASCENDS does not require programming skills. Instead, it provides a set of simple but powerful CLI (Command Line Interface) and GUI (Graphic User Interface) tools for non-data scientists to be able to intuitively perform advanced data analysis and machine learning techniques. ASCENDS has been implemented by wrapping around opensource software including Keras, TensorFlow, and scikit-learn.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Safety moments in chemical safety education.

Chemical safety education is a critical aspect of an integrated culture of safety in academic research settings. Showcasing best practices and sharing practical solutions for recognizing hazards and minimizing risks represent one way of reinforcing a research community's actions, attitudes, and behavior toward safety. For goals of improving chemical safety education with nonformal endeavors, safety moments are similar to 1-2 slides that focus on raising awareness and knowledge for routine safety issues in research laboratories. Intended to catalyze brief discussions at the beginning of meetings and presentations, these materials provide a proactive way for students and faculty to engage in open communication on diverse research safety topics across science and engineering. This commentary provides an overview of designing effective safety moments and tailoring them to highlight practical safety needs and considerations. Key components of model safety moment slides are presented, alongside centralized resources assembled by student-led laboratory safety teams, which can also be extended to posters, social media platforms, online videos, and other forms of scientific communication. Combined with both top-down backing from institution leaders and bottom-up support from student researchers, safety moments remain a low-barrier risk reduction strategy that is easy to implement, encourages local dialogue on safety, combats complacency, and holds potential for facilitating long-term improvements to academic lab safety culture.

Communication/Writing↗

A standards perspective on genomic data reusability and reproducibility

Genomic and metagenomic sequence data provides an unprecedented ability to re-examine findings, offering a transformative potential for advancing research, developing computational tools, enhancing clinical applications, and fostering scientific collaboration. However, effective and ethical reuse of genomics data is hampered by numerous technical and social challenges. The International Microbiome and Multi’Omics Standards Alliance (IMMSA, https://www.microbialstandards.org/) and the Genomic Standards Consortium (GSC, https://gensc.org) hosted a 5-part seminar series “A Year of Data Reuse” in 2024 to explore challenges and opportunities of data reuse and reproducibility across disparate domains of the genomic sciences. Addressing these challenges will require a multifaceted approach, including common metadata reporting, clear communication, standardized protocols, improved data management infrastructure, ethical guidelines, and collaborative policies that prioritize transparency and accessibility. We offer strategies to enable responsible and technically feasible data reuse, recognition of data reproducibility challenges, and emphasizing the importance of cross-disciplinary efforts in the pursuit of open science and data-driven innovation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Summary of Peace Engineering Biome Kickoff Workshop

There are urgent calls to action by the NAE, the Nobel Prize Summit, the UN, and global scientists to address and solve, in this decade (2020 – 2030), crucial and widely recognized global challenges to peace and security before they become more complex and more environmentally, financially, and socially costly; before we reach the point of no return.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

E-PiPEline: Quick to Market Emulated-PPE using Commonly Available Materials

The Center for Disease Control has recommended the public to wear cloth face coverings in public settings that reduce potential exposure to COVID-19 where other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain (e.g., grocery stores and pharmacies) especially in areas of significant community based transmission. These face coverings and other Emulated-Personal Protective Equipment (EPPE) can be made by using Commonly Available Materials (CAMs). As part of the Sandia COVID-19 LDRD effort (funded under the Materials Science Investment Area), the Sandia E-PiPEline task evaluated E-PPE design options for face coverings and face shields considering their effectiveness, durability, build difficulty, build cost, and comfort. Observations from this investigation are presented here to provide guidelines for home construction of E-PPE. This executive summary includes a brief roadmap of the analysis methodology, two one-page handouts geared to be distributed to the public at large (one for E-PPE face coverings and one for E-PPE face shields), and additional observations regarding the potential solutions for E-PPE face coverings and face shields included to further support the one-page handouts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Let’s talk about sex: A biological variable in immune response against melanoma

As science culture gravitates toward a more holistic inclusion of both males and females in research design, the outlining of sex differences and their respective intersections with disease physiology and pathophysiology should see reciprocal expansion. Melanoma skin cancer, for example, has observed a female advantage in incidence, mortality, and overall survival since the early 1970s. The exact biological mechanism of this trend, however, is unclear and further complicated by a layering of clinical variables such as skin phototype, age, and body mass index. In this perspective, we highlight epidemiological evidence of sex differences in melanoma and summarize the landscape of their potential origin. Among several biological hallmarks, we make a note of sex-specific immune profiles—along with divergent hormonal regulation, social practices, DNA damage and oxidative stress responses, body composition, genetic variants, and X-chromosome expression—as probable drivers of disparity in melanoma initiation and progression. This review further focuses the conversation of sex as an influencing factor in melanoma development and its potential implication for disease management and treatment strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Social Evolution and Cheating in Plant Pathogens

Plant pathogens are a critical component of the microbiome that exist as populations undergoing ecological and evolutionary processes within their host. Many aspects of virulence rely on social interactions mediated through multiple forms of public goods, including quorum-sensing signals, exoenzymes, and effectors. Virulence and disease progression involve life-history decisions that have social implications with large effects on both host and microbe fitness, such as the timing of key transitions. Considering the molecular basis of sequential stages of plant–pathogen interactions highlights many opportunities for pathogens to cheat, and there is evidence for ample variation in virulence. Case studies reveal systems where cheating has been demonstrated and others where it is likely occurring. Harnessing the social interactions of pathogens, along with leveraging novel sensing and -omics technologies to understand microbial fitness in the field, will enable us to better manage plant microbiomes in the interest of plant health.

Plant Sciences↗

Understanding the Drivers of Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Florida, USA Using a Machine Learning Approach

As of March 2021, the State of Florida, U.S.A. had accounted for approximately 6.67% of total COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus disease) cases in the U.S. The main objective of this research is to analyze mobility patterns during a three month period in summer 2020, when COVID-19 case numbers were very high for three Florida counties, Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. To investigate patterns, as well as drivers, related to changes in mobility across the tri-county region, a random forest regression model was built using sociodemographic, travel, and built environment factors, as well as COVID-19 positive case data. Mobility patterns declined in each county when new COVID-19 infections began to rise, beginning in mid-June 2020. While the mean number of bar and restaurant visits was lower overall due to closures, analysis showed that these visits remained a top factor that impacted mobility for all three counties, even with a rise in cases. Our modeling results suggest that there were mobility pattern differences between counties with respect to factors relating, for example, to race and ethnicity (different population groups factored differently in each county), as well as social distancing or travel-related factors (e.g., staying at home behaviors) over the two time periods prior to and after the spike of COVID-19 cases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Report of the 2025 Workshop on Next-Generation Ecosystems for Scientific Computing: Harnessing Community, Software, and AI for Cross-Disciplinary Team Science

This report summarizes insights from the 2025 Workshop on Next-Generation Ecosystems for Scientific Computing: Harnessing Community, Software, and AI for Cross-Disciplinary Team Science, which convened more than 40 experts from national laboratories, academia, industry, and community organizations to chart a path toward more powerful, sustainable, and collaborative scientific software ecosystems. To address urgent challenges at the intersection of high-performance computing (HPC), AI, and scientific software, participants envisioned agile, robust ecosystems built through socio-technical co-design—the intentional integration of social and technical components as interdependent parts of a unified strategy. This approach combines advances in AI, HPC, and software with new models for cross-disciplinary collaboration, training, and workforce development. Key recommendations include building modular, trustworthy AI-enabled scientific software systems; enabling scientific teams to integrate AI systems into their workflows while preserving human creativity, trust, and scientific rigor; and creating innovative training pipelines that keep pace with rapid technological change. Pilot projects were identified as near-term catalysts, with initial priorities focused on hybrid AI/HPC infrastructure, cross-disciplinary collaboration and pedagogy, responsible AI guidelines, and prototyping of public-private partnerships. This report presents a vision of next-generation ecosystems for scientific computing where AI, software, hardware, and human expertise are interwoven to drive discovery, expand access, strengthen the workforce, and accelerate scientific progress.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity

Significance Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. Here, we develop a general approach bridging across these timescales and demonstrate how to incorporate population heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models. We demonstrate that a fragile state of transient collective immunity emerges during early, high-paced stages of the epidemic, leading to suppression of individual epidemic waves. However, this state is not an indication of lasting herd immunity: Subsequent waves may emerge due to stochastic changes in individual social activity. Parameters of transient collective immunity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in several US locations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of social structure and management on risk of disease establishment in wild pigs

Contact heterogeneity among hosts determines invasion and spreading dynamics of infectious disease, thus its characterization is essential for identifying effective disease control strategies. Yet, little is known about the factors shaping contact networks in many 28 wildlife species and how wildlife management actions might affect contact networks. Wild pigs in North America are an invasive, socially-structured species that pose a health concern for domestic swine given their ability to transmit numerous devastating diseases 2 such as African swine fever (ASF). Using proximity loggers and GPS data from 48 wild pigs in Florida and South Carolina, USA, we employed a probabilistic framework to estimate weighted contact networks. We determined the effects of sex, social group, and spatial distribution (monthly home range overlap and distance) on wild pig contact. We also estimated the impacts of management-induced perturbations on contact and inferred their effects on ASF establishment in wild pigs with simulation. Social group membership was the primary factor influencing contacts. Between-group contacts depended primarily on space use characteristics, with fewer contacts among groups separated by >2 km and no contacts among groups >4 km apart within a month. Modeling ASF dynamics on the contact network demonstrated that indirect contacts resulting from baiting (a typical method of attracting wild pigs or game species to a site to enhance recreational hunting) increased the risk of disease establishment by ~33% relative to direct contact. Low-intensity population reduction (<5.9% of the population) had no detectable impact on contact structure but reduced predicted ASF establishment risk relative to no population reduction. Here, we demonstrate an approach for understanding the relative role of spatial, social, and individual-level characteristics in shaping contact networks and predicting their effects on disease establishment risk, thus providing insight for optimizing disease control in spatially- and socially-structured wildlife species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Advanced Anti-Fouling Coatings to Improve the Efficiency of Coal Power Plants

As the total cost of carbon to generate energy has become a global concern, operators are increasingly looking at all parts of the generation cycle to find areas where efficiency gains may be found. It has been long identified that fouling of heat exchangers is a persistent cause of up to 2.5% of global CO 2 emissions. Unfortunately, practice has also demonstrated that unless a powerful economic driver exists to encourage preemptive mitigation of fouling, there will always be a strong tendency for operators to minimize any form of intervention due to high costs and challenges in scheduling downtime. The objective of this proposed research effort was to demonstrate how existing power plants could lower their carbon emissions and significantly improve heat transfer efficiency using new surface treatment materials to control fouling in a variety of heat exchange equipment. The surface treatment material which was optimized and deployed in this effort is now known commercially as HeatX. It is a low-surface energy, water- and oil-repellent, abrasion resistant material which can be applied in-situ to a wide variety of previously worn/used/in-service substrates. Once applied, it provides a barrier against corrosion, scale deposit formation, and biofilm adhesion on the circulating water-containing tube-side. Alternatively, if applied to the tube exterior, the non-wetting nature of the surface was demonstrated to promote dropwise condensation, subsequently lowering condenser backpressure and increasing overall plant efficiency. As part of this cooperative effort, the Department of Energy’s support was crucial to de-risk and demonstrate the concept of HeatX, while validating both the performance and economic benefit in multiple pilot field studies. The HeatX material properties were optimized in this effort for full field applicability to heat exchangers and condensers, and Oceanit developed the necessary procedures and protocols to provide enough material to support extended length, multi-year demonstrations in the power generation, desalination, and refining industries, making this technology broadly applicable and ready for commercial transition. Field deployment case studies at thermal power plants have shown that the HeatX treatment can provide economic savings of up to $15,000 per day for an operator based on avoiding maintenance costs and lowering fuel usage. The complete mitigation of fouling effects can increase the efficiency of equipment by up to 7%, in a field where gains of 0.5% are generally seen as operationally significant. The HeatX treatment has also demonstrated exceptional lifetime and compatibility with a wide variety of seawater and hydrocarbon environments, further increasing both the return on investment and the effective emission reduction. Such efficiency improvements correlate to massive carbon savings. For every 1 GW of capacity, operators can see carbon emissions reductions of 300,000 tons of CO 2 per year. When looking at the bigger picture, improved condenser function across the U.S. has the potential to prevent 221.3 million tons of CO 2 emissions, equivalent to the sequestration capacity of 129 million acres of forest. If applied on a global scale, 1.26 billion metric tons of CO 2 could be averted from the atmosphere, the same amount of carbon sequestrated by 1.5 billion acres of forest annually or 262,000 wind turbines operating annually. As businesses across multiple industries take a more active role in focusing on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) solutions as part of their core business operations, HeatX will be an attractive technology for commercial investment.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Improving the Success of Underrepresented Populations in Computer and Computational Science Research with the CRA-W Women and URMD Grad Cohort Workshops

The Computing Research Association’s Committee on Widening Participation (CRA-WP) aims to increase the number of individual researchers from underrepresented groups in computing (UGC) (including women, underrepresented minorities, and persons with disabilities) who participate and succeed in computer science research at every stage of the research pipeline. Achieving these objectives requires that an increasing number of individuals from UGC start and progress to the next stage. The CRA-WP Grad Cohort Workshops are focused at the graduate level to maximize the likelihood participants will successfully complete their graduate degrees. Factors such as role models, skills, competence, confidence, mentoring, social support, and development of identity as a researcher help students to persist in graduate school, while factors such as sexism, racism, and dissatisfaction with their graduate program may cause them to leave. We, therefore, help first, second, and third year students build their skills, research strategies, and confidence; meet potential mentors from outside their institutions; develop connections with each other and with their research communities; and inform them about strategies for successful publishing, speaking, and advisor management strategies. By targeting early graduate students, we seek to help them stay in graduate school and in research.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

International assessment of priority environmental issues for land-based and offshore wind energy development

Non-technical summary A substantial increase in wind energy deployment worldwide is required to help achieve international targets for decreasing global carbon emissions and limiting the impacts of climate change. In response to global concerns regarding the environmental effects of wind energy, the International Energy Agency Wind Technical Collaborative Program initiated Task 34 – Working Together to Resolve Environmental Effects of Wind Energy or WREN. As part of WREN, this study performed an international assessment with the global wind energy and environmental community to determine priority environmental issues over the next 5‒10 years and help support collaborative interactions among researchers, developers, regulators, and stakeholders. Technical summary A systematic assessment was performed using feedback from the international community to identify priority environmental issues for land-based and offshore wind energy development. Given the global nature of wind energy development, feedback was of interest from all countries where such development is underway or planned to help meet United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change targets. The assessment prioritized environmental issues over the next 5–10 years associated with wind energy development and received a total of 294 responses from 28 countries. For land-based wind, the highest-ranked issues included turbine collision risk for volant species (birds and bats), cumulative effects on species and ecosystems, and indirect effects such as avoidance and displacement. For offshore wind, the highest-ranked issues included cumulative effects, turbine collision risk, underwater noise (e.g. marine mammals and fish), and displacement. Emerging considerations for these priorities include potential application to future technologies (e.g. larger turbines and floating turbines), new stressors and species in frontier regions, and cumulative effects for multiple projects at a regional scale. For both land-based and offshore wind, effectiveness of minimization measures (e.g. detection and deterrence technologies) and costs for monitoring, minimization, and mitigation were identified as overarching challenges. Social media summary Turbine collisions and cumulative effects among the international environmental priorities for wind energy development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Behaviourally-Informed Peer Referral Programmes can Increase the Reach of Low-Income Energy Policies

Low-income solar adopters are more likely to refer others to a fully subsidized solar programme when referral rewards are combined with an appeal to reciprocity and a simplified referral process, leading to five times as many solar contracts as when referral rewards are used alone. The findings highlight behavioural science strategies that administrators of low-income energy assistance programmes can use to cost-effectively accelerate programme uptake.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗