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At least 235 records · Page 13

Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Processes Over Warm Pool: 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle as well as the primary heat source for the atmosphere. The vertical distribution of convective latent-heat release modulates the large-scale circulations of the topics. Furthermore, changes in the moisture distribution at middle and upper levels of the troposphere can affect cloud distributions and cloud liquid water and ice contents. How the incoming solar and outgoing longwave radiation respond to these changes in clouds is a major factor in assessing climate change. Present large-scale weather and climate model simulate processes only crudely, reducing confidence in their predictions on both global and regional scales. One of the most promising methods to test physical parameterizations used in General Circulation Models (GCMs) and climate models is to use field observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes, and allow for their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. The CRMs can reasonably well resolve the evolution, structure, and life cycles of individual clouds and clouds systems. The major objective of this paper is to investigate the latent heating, moisture and momentum budgets associated with several convective systems developed during the TOGA COARE IFA - westerly wind burst event (late December, 1992). The tool for this study is the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysics scheme.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Performance modeling & simulation of complex systems (A systems engineering design & analysis approach)

Modeling of the Multi-mission Image Processing System (MIPS) will be described as an example of the use of a modeling tool to design a distributed system that supports multiple application scenarios. This paper examines: (a) modeling tool selection, capabilities, and operation (namely NETWORK 2.5 by CACl), (b) pointers for building or constructing a model and how the MIPS model was developed, (c) the importance of benchmarking or testing the performance of equipment/subsystems being considered for incorporation the design/architecture, (d) the essential step of model validation and/or calibration using the benchmark results, (e) sample simulation results from the MIPS model, and (f) how modeling and simulation analysis affected the MIPS design process by having a supportive and informative impact.

Hall, Laverne↗

Mars Smart Lander Parachute Simulation Model

A multi-body flight simulation for the Mars Smart Lander has been developed that includes six degree-of-freedom rigid-body models for both the supersonically-deployed and subsonically-deployed parachutes. This simulation is designed to be incorporated into a larger simulation of the entire entry, descent and landing (EDL) sequence. The complete end-to-end simulation will provide attitude history predictions of all bodies throughout the flight as well as loads on each of the connecting lines. Other issues such as recontact with jettisoned elements (heat shield, back shield, parachute mortar covers, etc.), design of parachute and attachment points, and desirable line properties can also be addressed readily using this simulation.

Queen, Eric M.↗

Simulation modeling for long duration spacecraft control systems

The use of simulation is described and it is contrasted to analytical solution techniques for evaluation of analytical reliability models. The role importance sampling plays in simulation of models of this type was also discussed. The simulator tool used for our analysis is described. Finally, the use of the simulator tool was demonstrated by applying it to evaluate the reliability of a fault tolerant hypercube multiprocessor intended for spacecraft designed for long duration missions. The reliability analysis was used to highlight the advantages and disadvantages offered by simulation over analytical solution of Markovian and non-Markovian reliability models.

Boyd, Mark A.↗

Modeling, Simulation, and Robust Design of the TSIS Pointing Controller for ISS Deployment

To ensure high quality TSIS science measurements, stringent requirements were levied on the pointing system performance. Several factors complicated the design of the pointing system controller including uncertainty in knowledge of the ISS base motion jitter, the use of direct drive brushless DC motors for the gimbal system, and the presence of TSIS structure low frequency modes. This paper will describe the modeling, simulation, analysis, and robust design techniques employed to reduce risk resulting in a pointing system that met requirements on-orbit.

Engelmann, Andrew↗

Dynamic Simulation Modeling and Control of a Desiccant Assisted Direct-expansion Air Handling Unit

Desirable built environments demand simultaneous regulation of thermal comfort and indoor air quality (IAQ) with energy-efficient operation of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HV AC) systems, which involves controls of temperature, humidity and airborne contaminants simultaneously. This paper presents the efforts of dynamic modeling and initial development control strategy for a desiccant-assisted multi-functional air handling unit (AHU) coupled with a direct-expansion rooftop unit (RTU) system, which aims to achieve multiple functions for indoor environment conditioning with energy efficient control. The RTU-AHU system includes a desiccant wheel for dehumidification and a conceptual direct air capture (DAC) filtering device for CO2 regulation. A Modelica-based dynamic model is developed for this conceptual system, and a simple decentralized control strategy is designed, which combines a differential-enthalpy based AHU return-air ratio control, a demand-controlled ventilation, and supply-air temperature humidity control via the RTU and DW controls. The proposed control method is evaluated with the Modelica simulation model for a selected set of scenarios

Pan, Chao↗

Simulation-modeling tool for evaluation of space telerobotic control strategies

An object-oriented software graphic simulation and modeling tool is developed to explore human/autonomous control allocation for varied operational scenarios. The system provides designers with LISP workstations through which to simulate telerobotic operations, model human performance in those operations, examine task performance profiles, and investigate control and diagnostic strategies. It is suggested that the provision of such analytic tools along with the presentation of performance projections can assist designers in rapidly and conveniently exploring design alternatives for telerobotic system control.

Corker, Kevin↗

Use of Human Modeling Simulation Software in the Task Analysis of the Environmental Control and Life Support System Component Installation Procedures

Virtual reality and simulation applications are becoming widespread in human task analysis. These programs have many benefits for the Human Factors Engineering field. Not only do creating and using virtual environments for human engineering analyses save money and time, this approach also promotes user experimentation and provides increased quality of analyses. This paper explains the human engineering task analysis performed on the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) space station rack and its Distillation Assembly (DA) subsystem using EAI's human modeling simulation software, Jack. When installed on the International Space Station (ISS), ECLSS will provide the life and environment support needed to adequately sustain crew life. The DA is an Orbital Replaceable Unit (ORU) that provides means of wastewater (primarily urine from flight crew and experimental animals) reclamation. Jack was used to create a model of the weightless environment of the ISS Node 3, where the ECLSS is housed. Computer aided drawings of the ECLSS rack and DA system were also brought into the environment. Anthropometric models of a 95th percentile male and 5th percentile female were used to examine the human interfaces encountered during various ECLSS and DA tasks. The results of the task analyses were used in suggesting modifications to hardware and crew task procedures to improve accessibility, conserve crew time, and add convenience for the crew. This paper will address some of those suggested modifications and the method of presenting final analyses for requirements verification.

Estes, Samantha↗

Creating Seasonal Climatologies of Aerosol Lidar Ratios Over Ocean Using MODIS AOD Constrained Retrievals and GOCART Model Simulations

The current CALIPSO algorithms assign one lidar ratio (i.e., extinction-to-backscatter ratio; LR) value globally for each of the seven tropospheric aerosol types. In a future data products release, the CALIPSO project aims to improve these algorithms through the development of regional and seasonal LR climatologies. In this work, aerosol LRs are inferred through CALIOP backscatter profiles constrained by collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. This analysis is subsampled for those profiles that are cloud-free and contain only one CALIOP-classified aerosol type (e.g., marine). The CALIOP profiles are then collocated with aerosol volume fractions obtained through Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulations. In this poster, we show twelve-year (June 2006-August 2018) mean spatial distributions of inferred aerosol LRs for CALIOP-classified marine aerosols and how they correspond inversely with patterns of GOCART sea salt volume fraction (SSVF). Near land masses, smaller SSVFs and larger LRs are found (due to the influence of over-land aerosols). In the remote ocean regions (likely less impacted by over-land aerosols), larger SSVFs and smaller LRs are found. The developed relationship between the GOCART model SSVFs and MODIS AOD constrained LRs is used to create model-assisted seasonal LR maps. Additionally, we show maps of inferred LRs from constrained retrievals using the CALIPSO Ocean Derived Column Optical Depth (ODCOD) product and comparisons with those from the MODIS analyses. The technique demonstrated here benefits CALIPSO in the near-term, but similar methods can also be applied to the next generation space-based elastic backscatter lidars with collocated passive sensors, such as those of the upcoming NASA Atmosphere Observing System (AOS).

Travis Toth↗

Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Observations and Model Simulations

This paper reviews observations of stratospheric temperatures that have been made over a period of several decades. Those observed temperatures have been used to assess variations and trends in stratospheric temperatures. A wide range of observation datasets have been used, comprising measurements by radiosonde (1940s to the present), satellite (1979 - present), lidar (1979 - present) and rocketsonde (periods varying with location, but most terminating by about the mid-1990s). In addition, trends have also been assessed from meteorological analyses, based on radiosonde and/or satellite data, and products based on assimilating observations into a general circulation model. Radiosonde and satellite data indicate a cooling trend of the annual-mean lower stratosphere since about 1980. Over the period 1979-1994, the trend is 0.6K/decade. For the period prior to 1980, the radiosonde data exhibit a substantially weaker long-term cooling trend. In the northern hemisphere, the cooling trend is about 0.75K/decade in the lower stratosphere, with a reduction in the cooling in mid-stratosphere (near 35 km), and increased cooling in the upper stratosphere (approximately 2 K per decade at 50 km). Model simulations indicate that the depletion of lower stratospheric ozone is the dominant factor in the observed lower stratospheric cooling. In the middle and upper stratosphere both the well-mixed greenhouse gases (such as CO) and ozone changes contribute in an important manner to the cooling.

Ramaswamy, V.↗

Extrapolating carbon dynamics of seasonally dry tropical forests across geographic scales and into future climates: improving simulation models with empirical observations. Final report

This research focused on seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs), a biome that exhibits strong variation in ecological, hydrological and physical characteristics. Climate change is expected to strongly impact the atmospheric environment of SDTFs, and long-term trends in precipitation seasonality have already been detected. The extent to which such changes in seasonal moisture availability will impact SDTF carbon dynamics is highly uncertain, and much of this uncertainty hinges on poorly-understood belowground processes. Thus, the central objectives of this research were to qualitatively and quantitatively describe how belowground processes mediate the response of SDTF carbon dynamics to environmental change. We accomplished these aims through field campaigns in four tropical countries to characterize soil biogeochemistry and plant hydraulic traits, ecosystem-scale field experiments that manipulated both nutrients and rainfall, and simulation modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping Aerosol Lidar Ratios Over Ocean using MODIS AOD Constrained Retrievals and GOCART Model Simulations

After 17 years, the NASA Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission ceased science operations in August 2023. For the final CALIPSO data products release (Version 5), the CALIPSO project seeks to improve the accuracy of its aerosol extinction by advancing knowledge of aerosol lidar ratios (i.e., extinction-to-backscatter ratios; LRs) for various aerosol types. The current algorithm assigns one LR value globally for each of the seven tropospheric aerosol types. The CALIPSO team aims to improve the retrieval algorithm through the development of regional and seasonal LR climatologies for the same aerosol types. In this study, aerosol LRs are inferred through Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) backscatter profiles constrained by collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data over oceans during daytime. This analysis is subsampled for those profiles that are cloud-free and contain only one CALIOP-classified aerosol type. The CALIOP profiles are then collocated with aerosol volume fractions obtained through Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulations. This presentation will reveal findings that the 12-year (June 2006-August 2018) mean spatial distributions of inferred aerosol LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols correspond inversely with patterns of GOCART sea salt volume fraction (SSVF). For example, smaller SSVFs (< 65%) and larger LRs (> 55 sr), are found near land masses (Fig. 1). This indicates the influence of advected anthropogenic aerosols (e.g., pollution and biomass burning smoke). In the remote oceans (i.e., regions likely less impacted by non-sea salt aerosols), the SSVFs are larger (> 95%) and the LRs are smaller (< 25 sr) (Fig. 1). A polynomial fit of the MODIS AOD constrained LRs to the corresponding GOCART SSVFs (intersect values of ~58 sr for SSVF of 0% and ~21 sr for SSVF of 100%) is further used to produce model-assisted climatological LR maps on seasonal scales. Additionally, we will show results of a LR validation analysis for which we compare the revised CALIPSO AODs obtained by applying the seasonal/regional constrained LRs against CALIPSO Version 4.51 Ocean Derived Column Optical Depth (ODCOD). While the majority of the presentation will focus on LRs for CALIOP-classified marine and dusty marine aerosols, an overview of LR results will show preliminary results for other aerosol types over ocean, such as dust and elevated smoke. The technique demon-strated in this study highlights the benefits not only to the final planned CALIPSO data release in 2025, but similar methods can be applied to future spaceborne elastic backscatter lidars with collocated passive sensors (e.g., such as those associated with NASA’s proposed Atmosphere Observing System).

Travis D Toth↗

Optical laboratory solution and error model simulation of a linear time-varying finite element equation

The use of simplified error models to accurately simulate and evaluate the performance of an optical linear-algebra processor is described. The optical architecture used to perform banded matrix-vector products is reviewed, along with a linear dynamic finite-element case study. The laboratory hardware and ac-modulation technique used are presented. The individual processor error-source models and their simulator implementation are detailed. Several significant simplifications are introduced to ease the computational requirements and complexity of the simulations. The error models are verified with a laboratory implementation of the processor, and are used to evaluate its potential performance.

Taylor, B. K.↗

Graph-Based Similarity Metrics for Comparing Simulation Model Causal Structures

The causal structure of a simulation is a major determinant of both its character and behavior, yet most methods we use to compare simulations focus only on simulation outputs. We introduce a method that combines graphical representation with information theoretic metrics to quantitatively compare the causal structures of models. The method applies to agent-based simulations as well as system dynamics models and facilitates comparison within and between types. Comparing models based on their causal structures can illuminate differences in assumptions made by the models, allowing modelers to (1) better situate their models in the context of existing work, including highlighting novelty, (2) explicitly compare conceptual theory and assumptions to simulated theory and assumptions, and (3) investigate potential causal drivers of divergent behavior between models. We demonstrate the method by comparing two epidemiology models at different levels of aggregation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Extreme flood return levels in a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary using 40-year fluvial-coastal model simulations

Using an integrated watershed-coastal modeling framework, we conducted long-term historical simulations (1980-2019) of fluvial and coastal flooding in the Delaware Bay and River, a vulnerable estuarine system in the U.S., at high spatial resolutions. By applying process-based models, we generated physically consistent and spatially detailed estimates of estuarine, riverine, and surge-driven extreme water level compared to previous studies that used field data only. We then evaluated changes in the magnitude of flood events using the 40-year simulations and detrended Floodwater Depth values with stationary extreme value analysis. Our detailed assessment of spatial-varying extreme values revealed how different flood-generation mechanisms can dominate various zones in the estuary. The datasets produced through this work will be valuable for long-term flood hazard mitigation planning in coastal communities in the Delaware Bay and River region. Additionally, this work will serve as a benchmark for other coastal flood hazard modeling communities worldwide, aiding them in systematically modeling long-term and continuous extreme flood events.

Coastal and Riverine Flooding↗

Arctic Ocean Freshwater: How Robust are Model Simulations

The Arctic freshwater (FW) has been the focus of many modeling studies, due to the potential impact of Arctic FW on the deep water formation in the North Atlantic. A comparison of the hindcasts from ten ocean-sea ice models shows that the simulation of the Arctic FW budget is quite different in the investigated models. While they agree on the general sink and source terms of the Arctic FW budget, the long-term means as well as the variability of the FW export vary among models. The best model-to-model agreement is found for the interannual and seasonal variability of the solid FW export and the solid FW storage, which also agree well with observations. For the interannual and seasonal variability of the liquid FW export, the agreement among models is better for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) than for Fram Strait. The reason for this is that models are more consistent in simulating volume flux anomalies than salinity anomalies and volume-flux anomalies dominate the liquid FW export variability in the CAA but not in Fram Strait. The seasonal cycle of the liquid FW export generally shows a better agreement among models than the interannual variability, and compared to observations the models capture the seasonality of the liquid FW export rather well. In order to improve future simulations of the Arctic FW budget, the simulation of the salinity field needs to be improved, so that model results on the variability of the liquid FW export and storage become more robust.

Jahn, A.↗

General Circulation Models Simulate Negative Liquid Water Path­–Droplet Number Correlations, but Anthropogenic Aerosols Still Increase Simulated Liquid Water Path

General circulation models' (GCMs) estimates of the liquid water path adjustment to anthropogenic aerosol emissions differ in sign from other lines of evidence. This reduces confidence in estimates of the effective radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci). The discrepancy is thought to stem in part from GCMs' inability to represent the turbulence–microphysics interactions in cloud-top entrainment, a mechanism that leads to a reduction in liquid water in response to an anthropogenic increase in aerosols. In the real atmosphere, enhanced cloud-top entrainment is thought to be the dominant adjustment mechanism for liquid water path, weakening the overall ERFaci. We show that the latest generation of GCMs includes models that produce a negative correlation between the present-day cloud droplet number and liquid water path, a key piece of observational evidence supporting liquid water path reduction by anthropogenic aerosols and one that earlier-generation GCMs could not reproduce. However, even in GCMs with this negative correlation, the increase in anthropogenic aerosols from preindustrial to present-day values still leads to an increase in the simulated liquid water path due to the parameterized precipitation suppression mechanism. This adds to the evidence that correlations in the present-day climate are not necessarily causal. We investigate sources of confounding to explain the noncausal correlation between liquid water path and droplet number. These results are a reminder that assessments of climate parameters based on multiple lines of evidence must carefully consider the complementary strengths of different lines when the lines disagree.

General circulation models↗