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At least 235 records · Page 13

Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) and Autonomy

Systems capabilities on ISHM (Integrated System Health Management) and autonomy have traditionally been addressed separately. This means that ISHM functions, such as anomaly detection, diagnostics, prognostics, and comprehensive system awareness have not been considered traditionally in the context of autonomy functions such as planning, scheduling, and mission execution. One key reason is that although they address systems capabilities, both ISHM and autonomy have traditionally individually been approached as independent strategies and models for analysis. Additionally, to some degree, a unified paradigm for ISHM and autonomy has been difficult to implement due to limitations of hardware and software. This paper explores a unified treatment of ISHM and autonomy in the context of distributed hierarchical autonomous operations.

Figueroa, Fernando↗

Leverage Points for System Health Management of Autonomous Systems

Systems Health Management (SHM) is one of three basic functionalities that constitute an autonomous capability of a system. The other two functionalities are Planning & Scheduling, and Task Execution. In an autonomous system, variable autonomy is often distinct from variable authority to sense, decide, and act. There are quantifiable Levels of Autonomy that can be achieved by tuning different portions of the Observe-Orient-Decide-Act loop to provide flexibility and control. This approach is tabulated for multiple domains such as spacecraft and aerial vehicles. Examining SHM through a Systems Thinking lens helps us understand its stocks and flows, loops, and delays. Systems thinking, and modeling, is a useful way to understand change and complexity of systems of many types. There are certain archetypes that underlie well-known autonomy architectures. And there often are leverage points - best places to intervene in a system - that can resolve or mitigate some fundamental challenges in the design and deployment of autonomous systems. I identify these levers and present the ones that have been successfully used in NASA missions.

Systems Thinking↗

A Mathematical Analysis of an Example Delay Tolerant Network using the Theory of Sheaves

NASA’s High-Data Rate Architecture (HiDRA) project is working towards a general yet practical toolkit and knowledge base to help usher in the era of new technologies for space systems communications, such as optical links. The High-Rate Delay Tolerant Networking (HDTN) implementation falls under the umbrellas of both the toolkit and the knowledge base, as its advancements illuminate more general areas of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) that need growth. The goal of this paper is to explore the usage of particular mathematical machineries, namely temporal flow networks and sheaves, to identify fundamental, underlying structures in DTN for space systems. Satellites, space assets, ground stations, etc. give rise to a disconnected network, and it is the goal of DTN to glue disparate links together into a cohesive system, that is, a network. Depending on a given link, the latencies might be beyond that which the Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) can handle, and contact times might have one-way light times in excess of minute (sometimes significantly longer). Some links might be periodic (say, due to orbital mechanics) or they might not be. This diversity has made it difficult to probe the underlying structure. An immediate consequence is that DTNs in practice today are controlled by globally distributed contact plans (schedules), which are the input to the contact graph routing (CGR) algorithm. While this is effective for smaller networks, it will be very difficult to scale for future networks. Deeper and more rigorous theory is needed to bring DTN to the next evolutionary step. To this end, this paper introduces and suggests a mathematical framework for DTN, and applies it to a space network that is simulated using an orbital analysis toolkit. The tag-line for the structure known as sheaves is that they are the mathematically precise way of gluing local data together into unique, global data. If we consider routing, we see that networking is a “sheafy” science. We then discuss a simplified sheaf model, known as the cellular sheaf. The sheaf-theoretic analysis is presented and discussed, as it is hoped that this and related papers will help form the primordial ooze of DTN theory. Finally there is a section of future work suggesting follow-on research.

Delay Tolerant Networking↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

2022 FORCE Development Status Update

Integrated energy systems (IESs) are essential for decarbonizing electricity and industrial sectors and fully exploiting these systems requires sophisticated planning, scheduling, and dispatching tools to maximize their socio-economic benefits. The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) is a tool suite developed at Idaho National Laboratory and is dedicated to making robust analyses of IESs easier for analysts and researchers. The report summarizes the improvements and updates to FORCE during the most recent development cycle. Particularly, we demonstrate improvements to user accessibility, stochastic time-series analysis, and vertical integration with the software tools provided in FORCE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluating Economic Impact: An Investment Tool for Large Language Model Integration in Workweek Management

This paper explores the development and application of an investment tool designed to quantify the costs and potential savings associated with integrating large language models (LLMs) into work week management optimization (WMO) within the nuclear industry. LLMs, with their advanced natural language processing capabilities, can significantly enhance various aspects of work management, such as problem identification, prioritization, planning, scheduling, information retrieval, and information summary. Our investment tool focuses on evaluating the return on investment (ROI) for LLM applications in WMO by considering four pivotal decision factors: model selection, application, user training, and hosting options. This paper details the development and implementation of the ROI model and illustrates its application through multiple case studies, analyzing the impact of different variables, such as work time saved, number of requests, and model performance, on the computed ROI over two years. The computed ROI is also compared over different hosting solutions. Our findings indicate that ROI increases with enhanced work time savings and optimal request load but can decline with high request volumes or increased model costs. This model aids decision-makers in the nuclear industry by providing a structured approach to assessing the economic viability and potential savings from integrating LLMs into WMO processes.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluating Economic Impact: An Investment Tool for Large Language Model Integration in Workweek Management

This paper explores the development and application of an investment tool designed to quantify the costs and potential savings associated with integrating large language models (LLMs) into work week management optimization (WMO) within the nuclear industry. LLMs, with their advanced natural language processing capabilities, can significantly enhance various aspects of work management, such as problem identification, prioritization, planning, scheduling, information retrieval, and information summary. Our investment tool focuses on evaluating the return on investment (ROI) for LLM applications in WMO by considering four pivotal decision factors: model selection, application, user training, and hosting options. This paper details the development and implementation of the ROI model and illustrates its application through multiple case studies, analyzing the impact of different variables, such as work time saved, number of requests, and model performance, on the computed ROI over two years. The computed ROI is also compared over different hosting solutions. Our findings indicate that ROI increases with enhanced work time savings and optimal request load but can decline with high request volumes or increased model costs. This model aids decision-makers in the nuclear industry by providing a structured approach to assessing the economic viability and potential savings from integrating LLMs into WMO processes.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Mixed Integer Programming and Heuristic Scheduling for Space Communication

Optimal planning and scheduling for a communication network was created where the nodes within the network are communicating at the highest possible rates while meeting the mission requirements and operational constraints. The planning and scheduling problem was formulated in the framework of Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) to introduce a special penalty function to convert the MIP problem into a continuous optimization problem, and to solve the constrained optimization problem using heuristic optimization. The communication network consists of space and ground assets with the link dynamics between any two assets varying with respect to time, distance, and telecom configurations. One asset could be communicating with another at very high data rates at one time, and at other times, communication is impossible, as the asset could be inaccessible from the network due to planetary occultation. Based on the network's geometric dynamics and link capabilities, the start time, end time, and link configuration of each view period are selected to maximize the communication efficiency within the network. Mathematical formulations for the constrained mixed integer optimization problem were derived, and efficient analytical and numerical techniques were developed to find the optimal solution. By setting up the problem using MIP, the search space for the optimization problem is reduced significantly, thereby speeding up the solution process. The ratio of the dimension of the traditional method over the proposed formulation is approximately an order N (single) to 2*N (arraying), where N is the number of receiving antennas of a node. By introducing a special penalty function, the MIP problem with non-differentiable cost function and nonlinear constraints can be converted into a continuous variable problem, whose solution is possible.

Lee, Charles H.↗

Scheduling algorithm for mission planning and logistics evaluation users' guide

The scheduling algorithm for mission planning and logistics evaluation (SAMPLE) program is a mission planning tool composed of three subsystems; the mission payloads subsystem (MPLS), which generates a list of feasible combinations from a payload model for a given calendar year; GREEDY, which is a heuristic model used to find the best traffic model; and the operations simulation and resources scheduling subsystem (OSARS), which determines traffic model feasibility for available resources. The SAMPLE provides the user with options to allow the execution of MPLS, GREEDY, GREEDY-OSARS, or MPLS-GREEDY-OSARS.

Chang, H.↗

Applications of artificial intelligence to mission planning

The scheduling problem facing NASA-Marshall mission planning is extremely difficult for several reasons. The most critical factor is the computational complexity involved in developing a schedule. The size of the search space is large along some dimensions and infinite along others. It is because of this and other difficulties that many of the conventional operation research techniques are not feasible or inadequate to solve the problems by themselves. Therefore, the purpose is to examine various artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to assist conventional techniques or to replace them. The specific tasks performed were as follows: (1) to identify mission planning applications for object oriented and rule based programming; (2) to investigate interfacing AI dedicated hardware (Lisp machines) to VAX hardware; (3) to demonstrate how Lisp may be called from within FORTRAN programs; (4) to investigate and report on programming techniques used in some commercial AI shells, such as Knowledge Engineering Environment (KEE); and (5) to study and report on algorithmic methods to reduce complexity as related to AI techniques.

Ford, Donnie R.↗

NASA scheduling technologies

This paper is a consolidated report on ten major planning and scheduling systems that have been developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). A description of each system, its components, and how it could be potentially used in private industry is provided in this paper. The planning and scheduling technology represented by the systems ranges from activity based scheduling employing artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to constraint based, iterative repair scheduling. The space related application domains in which the systems have been deployed vary from Space Shuttle monitoring during launch countdown to long term Hubble Space Telescope (HST) scheduling. This paper also describes any correlation that may exist between the work done on different planning and scheduling systems. Finally, this paper documents the lessons learned from the work and research performed in planning and scheduling technology and describes the areas where future work will be conducted.

Adair, Jerry R.↗

Crew Scheduling Performance

As NASA considers long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs), it is envisioned that crew will behave more autonomously as compared to low-Earth orbit missions. The necessary shift of Ops Planners’ complete management of scheduling and planning to provide flexibility for crew to manage their own schedule in real-time requires significant research and investigation in evaluation of concepts of operations, of software tools to support tasks, and of crew performance to complete scheduling tasks. Our research objective is to characterize the human performance envelope for the task of planning and scheduling (crew self-scheduling), develop countermeasures to mitigate adverse performance effects due to plan complexity, and inform performance standards and guidelines based on research results. In our efforts to understand and characterize scheduling performance of crew members, we have conducted subject matter expert interviews to obtain feedback on scheduling plan complexity drivers and plan goodness. Following the pilot study conducted last year, we designed a study and have begun remote human subject testing to evaluate non-expert human performance, workload, and situational awareness for the task of planning and scheduling. This study investigates the effects of the number and type of constraints on human performance, and the differences in scheduling metrics between scheduling and rescheduling tasks. Subject testing is currently in progress, and we aim to collect data from approximately thirty subjects. We will summarize the methods used and impacts of the number and type of scheduling constraints. We will also present lessons learned as well as relevant results of the study.

crew scheduling↗

Lessons Learned In Developing Multiple Distributed Planning Systems for the International Space Station

The planning processes for the International Space Station (ISS) Program are quite complex. Detailed mission planning for ISS on-orbit operations is a distributed function. Pieces of the on-orbit plan are developed by multiple planning organizations, located around the world, based on their respective expertise and responsibilities. The "pieces" are then integrated to yield the final detailed plan that will be executed onboard the ISS. Previous space programs have not distributed the planning and scheduling functions to this extent. Major ISS planning organizations are currently located in the United States (at both the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) and NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC)), in Russia, in Europe, and in Japan. Software systems have been developed by each of these planning organizations to support their assigned planning and scheduling functions. Although there is some cooperative development and sharing of key software components, each planning system has been tailored to meet the unique requirements and operational environment of the facility in which it operates. However, all the systems must operate in a coordinated fashion in order to effectively and efficiently produce a single integrated plan of ISS operations, in accordance with the established planning processes. This paper addresses lessons learned during the development of these multiple distributed planning systems, from the perspective of the developer of one of the software systems. The lessons focus on the coordination required to allow the multiple systems to operate together, rather than on the problems associated with the development of any particular system. Included in the paper is a discussion of typical problems faced during the development and coordination process, such as incompatible development schedules, difficulties in defining system interfaces, technical coordination and funding for shared tools, continually evolving planning concepts/requirements, programmatic and budget issues, and external influences. Techniques that mitigated some of these problems will also be addressed, along with recommendations for any future programs involving the development of multiple planning and scheduling systems. Many of these lessons learned are not unique to the area of planning and scheduling systems, so may be applied to other distributed ground systems that must operate in concert to successfully support space mission operations.

Maxwell, Theresa G.↗

Lessons Learned in Developing Multiple Distributed Planning Systems for the International Space Station

The planning processes for the International Space Station (ISS) Program are quite complex. Detailed mission planning for ISS on-orbit operations is a distributed function. Pieces of the on-orbit plan are developed by multiple planning organizations, located around the world, based on their respective expertise and responsibilities. The pieces are then integrated to yield the final detailed plan that will be executed onboard the ISS. Previous space programs have not distributed the planning and scheduling functions to this extent. Major ISS planning organizations are currently located in the United States (at both the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) and NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC)), in Russia, in Europe, and in Japan. Software systems have been developed by each of these planning organizations to support their assigned planning and scheduling functions. Although there is some cooperative development and sharing of key software components, each planning system has been tailored to meet the unique requirements and operational environment of the facility in which it operates. However, all the systems must operate in a coordinated fashion in order to effectively and efficiently produce a single integrated plan of ISS operations, in accordance with the established planning processes. This paper addresses lessons learned during the development of these multiple distributed planning systems, from the perspective of the developer of one of the software systems. The lessons focus on the coordination required to allow the multiple systems to operate together, rather than on the problems associated with the development of any particular system. Included in the paper is a discussion of typical problems faced during the development and coordination process, such as incompatible development schedules, difficulties in defining system interfaces, technical coordination and funding for shared tools, continually evolving planning concepts/requirements, programmatic and budget issues, and external influences. Techniques that mitigated some of these problems will also be addressed, along with recommendations for any future programs involving the development of multiple planning and scheduling systems. Many of these lessons learned are not unique to the area of planning and scheduling systems, so may be applied to other distributed ground systems that must operate in concert to successfully support space mission operations.

Maxwell, Theresa G.↗

An expert system for ground support of the Hubble space telescope

The Hubble Space Telescope is an orbiting optical observatory due to be launched by the Space Shuttle in late 1987. It is a complex, multi-instrument observatory whose resources will be available to the world-wide astronomical community. The 'Transformation' system is a hybrid system which utilizes a rule-based expert system to convert scientific proposals into pre-optimized linked hierarchies of spacecraft activities. These activities are generated in a format that can be directly scheduled by the planning and scheduling component of the Space Telescope ground support system. The Transformation system will be described in detail in this paper, with particular attention given to the rule base.

Rosenthal, Don↗

ASPEN Version 3.0

The Automated Scheduling and Planning Environment (ASPEN) computer program has been updated to version 3.0. ASPEN is a modular, reconfigurable, application software framework for solving batch problems that involve reasoning about time, activities, states, and resources. Applications of ASPEN can include planning spacecraft missions, scheduling of personnel, and managing supply chains, inventories, and production lines. ASPEN 3.0 can be customized for a wide range of applications and for a variety of computing environments that include various central processing units and random access memories.

Rabideau, Gregg↗