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DOE OSTI2023

Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future marine biofuels in the port of Seattle region

Marine transportation, a vital global sector, emits 3% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions, which are predicted to increase in the future. Marine biofuels derived from biomass or waste sources like wood residue, waste oil and municipal solid waste can be used for decarbonization. However, limited studies have explored if sufficient marine biofuels could be produced and supplied to major regional ports given feedstock, supply chain and technological constraints. We fill this gap by evaluating the feasibility of supplying marine biofuels to the Port of Seattle. The Regional Bio-Economy Model (RBEM) and the Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT) are used to build scenarios for simulating marine biofuel production in the Port region. We harmonized technoeconomic assumptions for RBEM and FTOT, input FTOT feedstock utilization and routing outputs into RBEM, and modelled conversion, feedstock, and policy scenario variations in RBEM. In RBEM, overall biofuel production was constrained primarily by the biofuel cost, and then by feedstock availability. Providing policy incentives and reducing permitting time frames alleviated these constraints and spurred the buildout of a robust industry through industrial learning dynamics in the initial years. With these measures in place, the RBEM results show that 100% of fuel demand at the Port can be supplied by biofuels with policy incentives and suitable technoeconomic conditions, but the addition of transportation cost considerations using FTOT led to 27.8% of demand being able to be met by biofuels at reasonable fuel delivery cost.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

AI-Based Optimal Design and Controls Can Greatly Reduce Carbon Emissions and Enhance Resilience in Residential Communities in Cold Climates

Net-zero energy residential communities are crucial for achieving decarbonization goals, but the high-penetration photovoltaic (PV) in those communities is posing challenges to the distribution grid. Traditional design and operation of net-zero communities rely on rule-of-thumb methods and may not work in complex scenarios. Artificial intelligence and machine learning methods can optimally size PV for net-zero energy, identify user preferences and usage patterns, and fully unlock the potential of distributed energy resources to address distribution grid issues.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2020

Power System Resilience Enhancement in Typhoons Using a Three-Stage Day-Ahead Unit Commitment

In this work, we propose a three-stage resilient unit commitment model which considers uncertain typhoon paths and line outages to improve the power system resilience against typhoon events. The proposed solution coordinates resources in response to the worst-case scenario for each possible typhoon path. The optimal decision is based on the characterization of the power system schedule into three stages of preventive control, emergency control, and restoration. Preventive control is performed before the typhoon occurs by quickly adjusting the three-stage resilient unit commitment schedule; emergency control is conducted during the typhoon by shedding local loads to meet the power balance, while other control strategies are assumed to be unavailable due to possible interruptions in the communication system; restoration is realized after the typhoon, when resources are optimally dispatched to repair the outages of critical devices and recover the normal operation state of the power system quickly. Considering the typhoon path uncertainty, we have introduced a stochastic model for possible typhoon paths where all possible affected lines along each typhoon path are assumed to be on outage during the typhoon. Accordingly, we explore the strategy for co-optimizing the three stages in unit commitment. The proposed model is tested on the IEEE 118-bus system and the real-world provincial system to verify its effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows (IPPD) (Final Report)

This report details the accomplishments from the ASCR funded project “Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows” under the award numbers FWP-66406 and DE-SC0012630, with a focus on the UC San Diego (Award No. DE-SC0012630) part of the accomplishments. We refer to the project as IPPD. The main activities of IPPD were centered on the development and integration of provenance information to capture empirically workflow information and identify the sources of bottlenecks as well as variability, and modeling and simulation to provide insights and predictively explore multiple scenarios for development of advanced techniques for optimization of resources and workflow execution. After a Phase I of the project, a Phase II effort focused on three major aspects: a) observe how data is generated, distributed, and used; b) analyze how data is (repeatedly) consumed with a focus both on repeated patterns and anomalies; and c) explore how to optimize data motion. The project leveraged and extended our existing tools with new research and demonstrated our work on the Belle II workflow suite as well as on workflows from NSLS-II.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Operational optimization for multi-functional charging station with electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles

The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs), combined with global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, has accelerated the development of EV charging and hydrogen refueling stations. In response to this demand, this paper introduces the concept of Multi-Functional Charging Station (MFCS) that integrates power generation, EV charging, battery swapping, and hydrogen refueling. A comprehensive operational model is developed for the MFCS that couples electricity and hydrogen conversion and storage technologies to enhance infrastructure utilization and improve overall system efficiency. The model also considers multiple revenue streams, including participation in energy and ancillary markets. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed model and evaluate its performance, a series of numerical experiments are conducted with different charger numbers, different electricity purchase limits, and different charger allocations. Numerical results demonstrate that shared charger configurations can lead to 8.11 % improvement in operational profit by improving resource utilization and reducing the number of depleted batteries at the end of operations compared to allocated charger setups. By varying the number of chargers, sensitivity analysis identifies diminishing marginal returns beyond about 45 chargers, suggesting it as an optimal sizing point under current settings. The integration of electricity and hydrogen conversion is also explored under scenarios with limited external electricity purchases. In conclusion, these findings indicate that optimizing charger allocation and energy management can significantly enhance station productivity and profitability, ultimately supporting the broader adoption of electrified and hydrogen-based transportation solutions.

Charging station↗

DOE OSTI2025

Marine energy supported multi-energy system planning and operation optimization for sustainable coastal community

The growing need for sustainable energy solutions in coastal areas necessitates the development of integrated systems that leverage abundant marine resources. In this study, a standalone Marine Energy Supported Multi-Energy System (MRE-MES) is designed for sustainable coastal community development, utilizing renewable marine resources, including offshore wind, wave, and solar energy, to address the energy needs of electricity, heat, freshwater, and hydrogen. The proposed MRE-MES incorporates a co-optimization model that simultaneously balances capacity planning and operational efficiency to minimize costs and environmental impacts. The system is tested under different renewable energy penetration levels and demand uncertainties, using a two-stage stochastic programming to account for variability in renewable resources and consumption needs. The experimental results indicate that in the optimal system capacity configuration, the percentage of total renewable energy generation is around 80 %, with or without capacity limitation constraints on PV, water tank, and hydrogen storage. Compared to the worst-case scenario in Monte Carlo experiments, two-stage stochastic optimization results in a more robust decision that effectively mitigates the risks posed by future uncertain demand conditions. In conclusion, the findings highlight the viability of marine energy for providing a resilient, comprehensive energy solution to coastal communities.

Capacity planning↗

DOE OSTI2022

A hybrid robust-stochastic optimization approach for day-ahead scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric system in restructured electricity market

Uncertainties arising from complicated natural and market environments pose great challenges for the efficient operation of cascaded hydroelectric systems. To overcome these challenges, this paper studies the day-ahead scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric systems in a restructured electricity market with the presence of uncertainties in electricity price and natural water inflow. To properly model the uncertainty, we consider the unique characteristics of these two types of uncertainties and capture them via the uncertainty set and stochastic scenarios, respectively. Further, a hybrid robust-stochastic optimization model is developed to simultaneously hedge against these two types of uncertainties, which is formulated as a large-scale non-convex optimization problem with mixed integer recourse. After introducing linearization of nonlinear terms, a tailored hybrid decomposition scheme combining Lagrangian relaxation and Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition is adopted to achieve efficient computation of the proposed model. Two real-world cases are conducted to demonstrate the capability and characteristics of the proposed model and algorithms.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of wind power scenario creation methods for stochastic power systems operations

Probabilistic scenarios of renewable energy production, such as wind, have been gaining popularity for use in stochastic variants of power systems operations scheduling problems, allowing for optimal decision-making under uncertainty. The quality of the scenarios has a direct impact on the value of the resulting decisions, but until now, methods for creating scenarios have not been compared under realistic operational conditions. Here, we compare the quality of scenario sets created using three different methods, based on a simulated re-enactment of stochastic day-ahead unit commitment and subsequent dispatch for a realistic test system. We create scenarios using a dataset of forecasted and actual wind power values, scaled to evaluate the effects of increasing wind penetration levels. We show that the choice of scenario set can significantly impact system operating cost, renewable energy use, and the ability of the system to meet demand. This result has implications for the ability of system operators to efficiently integrate renewable production into their day-ahead planning, highlighting the need for the use of performance-based assessments for scenario evaluation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Direct optimization of neoclassical ion transport in stellarator reactors

Abstract We directly optimize stellarator neoclassical ion transport while holding neoclassical electron transport at a moderate level, creating a scenario favorable for impurity expulsion and retaining good ion confinement. Traditional neoclassical stellarator optimization has focused on minimizing ϵ eff , the geometric factor that characterizes the amount of radial transport due to particles in the 1 / ν regime. Under expected reactor-relevant conditions, core electrons will be in the 1 / ν regime and core fuel ions will be in the ν regime. Traditional optimizations thus minimize electron transport and rely on the radial electric field ( E r ) that develops to confine the ions. This often results in an inward-pointing E r that drives high- Z impurities into the core, which may be troublesome in future reactors. In this work, we increase the ratio of the thermal transport coefficients L 11 e / L 11 i , which previous research has shown can create an outward-pointing E r . This effect is very beneficial for impurity expulsion. We obtain self-consistent density, temperature, and E r profiles at reactor-relevant conditions for an optimized equilibrium. This equilibrium is expected to enjoy significantly improved impurity transport properties.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing School Bus Electrification in Richmond, Virginia

School buses are an essential component of the transportation infrastructure, serving as a lifeline for students across the globe. However, the widespread use of diesel school buses has raised concerns about the health impact on millions of students exposed to harmful emissions daily. Recognizing this issue, school districts worldwide are urgently seeking cleaner energy alternatives. Electric school buses emerge as an environmentally friendly and sustainable option, fostering a healthier environment for both students and communities. However, school bus electrification faces the challenges of high upfront cost, cumbersome charging management, and constraints from power grids. To help school bus operators address those challenges, this study presents a data-driven analysis for school bus electrification. This study considered a real-world school bus system in Richmond, VA, and developed a mathematical programming model to analyze the system design, charging strategies, and charging load profiles for the electrification scenario. The study evaluated different charging strategies based on model outcomes, aiming to optimize efficiency and effectiveness. Ultimately, this research generated electric school bus charging demand profiles under various scenarios, shedding light on the feasibility and implications of transitioning to electric-powered school buses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Near Optimality of Matched Filter Detection for Cyclic Prefix Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum

Abstract—Cyclic Prefix Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum -DSSS) has been presented as a potential solution for ultrareliable low latency communications (URLLC) and massive machine type communication (mMTC), where the CP-DSSS waveform would operate as a secondary network at the same frequencies as the primary network but at much lower SNR. In this paper, we show that when operating in the low SNR regime, CP-DSSS achieves near optimum performance when using a matched filter (MF) detector at the receiver. Time reversal (TR) precoding at the transmitter is also analyzed. These results also carry forward into multi-antenna scenarios where array gain is preserved. With nearly optimal performance of MF detection, CP-DSSS can be implemented with simple device transceiver structures, reducing per-unit cost for massively deployed networks.

5G and Beyond Communications↗

DOE OSTI2022

The influence of increasing atmospheric CO 2 , temperature, and vapor pressure deficit on seawater-induced tree mortality

We report increasing seawater exposure is killing coastal trees globally, with expectations of accelerating mortality with rising sea levels. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) on seawater-induced tree mortality is uncertain. We examined the mechanisms of seawater-induced mortality under varying climate scenarios using a photosynthetic gain and hydraulic cost optimization model validated against observations in a mature stand of Sitka-spruce (Picea sitchensis) trees in the Pacific Northwest, USA, that were dying from recent seawater exposure. The simulations matched well with observations of photosynthesis, transpiration, nonstructural carbohydrates concentrations, leaf water potential, the percentage loss of xylem conductivity, and stand-level mortality rates. The simulations suggest that seawater-induced mortality could decrease by ~16.7% with increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels due to reduced risk of carbon starvation. Conversely, rising VPD could increase mortality by ~5.6% because of increasing risk of hydraulic failure. Across all scenarios, seawater-induced mortality was driven by hydraulic failure in the first two years after seawater exposure began, with carbon starvation becoming more important in subsequent years. Changing CO 2 and climate appear unlikely to have a significant impact on coastal tree mortality under rising sea levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Benchmarking Optimizers for Qumode State Preparation with Variational Quantum Algorithms

Quantum state preparation involves preparing a target state from an initial system, a process integral to applications such as quantum machine learning and solving systems of linear equations. Recently, there has been a growing interest in qumodes due to advancements in the field and their potential applications. However there is a notable gap in the literature specifically addressing this area. This paper aims to bridge this gap by providing performance benchmarks of various optimizers used in state preparation with Variational Quantum Algorithms. We conducted extensive testing across multiple scenarios, including different target states, both ideal and sampling simulations, and varying numbers of basis gate layers. Our evaluations offer insights into the complexity of learning each type of target state and demonstrate that some optimizers perform better than others in this context. Notably, the Powell optimizer was found to be exceptionally robust against sampling errors, making it a preferred choice in scenarios prone to such inaccuracies. Additionally, the Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation optimizer was distinguished for its efficiency and ability to handle increased parameter dimensionality effectively.

Kan, Shuwen [Fordham University]↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Role and Value of Interregional Transmission in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity System

Decarbonizing the U.S. energy system entails a significant expansion of wind and solar power and electrification of end-use applications. Achieving both is more efficient and less costly when interregional transmission capacity is expanded, but the fractured nature of grid planning in the United States is often a barrier to such expansion. Here, we explore the role of interregional transmission under a variety of decarbonization scenarios, using a capacity-expansion model to generate co-optimized portfolios of generation, storage, and transmission that meet decarbonization targets and electrification-driven demand. We explore portfolio and cost differences across 92 scenarios, from scenarios with limited transmission expansion to those that include a meshed high-voltage direct current (HVDC) network. In the core decarbonization scenarios, wind capacity expands by ~10x and solar by ~20x compared to 2020, hundreds of gigawatts of battery storage are deployed, and interregional transmission expands by 3-6x. Transmission expansion occurs nationwide but is concentrated between the central "wind belt" and eastern load centers. The HVDC scenarios result in hundreds of billions of dollars of savings in total system cost, demonstrating the economic benefits of interregional transmission in support of rapid decarbonization.

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integration of cryogenic energy storage with renewables and power plants: Optimal strategies and cost analysis

Energy storage is critical for overcoming challenges associated with the intermittency and the variable availability of renewable sources for decarbonizing the energy sector. Cryogenic energy storage (CES) is of interest due to its high technology readiness level, no geographical limitations, and moderate round-trip efficiency. The time-varying nature of demands and renewable availability needs to be considered at the design and integration stages of energy storage. We develop a mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP) model to obtain the energy storage costs on a daily basis for different scenarios that typically arise over an entire year. Using this optimization-based framework, we address key decision-making questions towards energy transition: What is the energy cost when CES is integrated with renewables and power plants? How does each scenario affect the overall energy cost? How much storage is needed for complete transition to renewables? What is the optimal integration towards 100% renewable energy? What are the optimal storage designs for both renewables and fossil-based power generation with current and future energy demands? Here, we discuss different scenarios and solutions to these questions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-objective optimization of root phenotypes for nutrient capture using evolutionary algorithms

Root phenotypes are avenues to the development of crop cultivars with improved nutrient capture, which is an important goal for global agriculture. The fitness landscape of root phenotypes is highly complex and multidimensional. It is difficult to predict which combinations of traits (phene states) will create the best performing integrated phenotypes in various environments. Brute force methods to map the fitness landscape by simulating millions of phenotypes in multiple environments are computationally challenging. Evolutionary optimization algorithms may provide more efficient avenues to explore high dimensional domains such as the root phenotypic space. We coupled the three-dimensional functional–structural plant model, SimRoot, to the Borg Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA) and the evolutionary search over several generations facilitated the identification of optimal root phenotypes balancing trade-offs across nutrient uptake, biomass accumulation, and root carbon costs in environments varying in nutrient availability. Our results show that several combinations of root phenes generate optimal integrated phenotypes where performance in one objective comes at the cost of reduced performance in one or more of the remaining objectives, and such combinations differed for mobile and non-mobile nutrients and for maize (a monocot) and bean (a dicot). Functional–structural plant models can be used with multi-objective optimization to identify optimal root phenotypes under various environments, including future climate scenarios, which will be useful in developing the more resilient, efficient crops urgently needed in global agriculture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal control of polar sea-ice near its tipping points

Abstract Several Earth system components are at a high risk of undergoing rapid, irreversible qualitative changes or “tipping” with increasing climate warming. It is therefore necessary to investigate the feasibility of arresting or even reversing the crossing of tipping thresholds. Here, we study feedback control of an idealized energy balance model (EBM) for Earth’s climate, which exhibits a “small icecap” instability responsible for a rapid transition to an ice-free climate under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We develop an optimal control strategy for the EBM under different forcing scenarios to reverse sea-ice loss while minimizing costs. Control is achievable for this system, but the cost nearly quadruples once the system tips. While thermal inertia may delay tipping, leading to an overshoot of the critical forcing threshold, this leeway comes with a steep rise in requisite control once tipping occurs. Additionally, we find that the optimal control is localized in the polar region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗