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At least 235 records · Page 13

MSFC solar activity predictions for satellite orbital lifetime estimation

The procedure to predict solar activity indexes for use in upper atmosphere density models is given together with an example of the performance. The prediction procedure employs a least square linear regression model to generate the predicted smoothed vinculum R sub 13 and geomagnetic vinculum A sub p(13) values. Linear regression equations are then employed to compute corresponding vinculum F sub 10.7(13) solar flux values from the predicted vinculum R sub 13 values. The output is issued principally for satellite orbital lifetime estimations.

Fuler, H. C.↗

A comparison of photospheric electric current and ultraviolet and X-ray emission in a solar active region

This paper presents an extensive set of coordinated observations of a solar active region, taking into account spectroheliograms obtained with the aid of the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) Ultraviolet Spectrometer Polarimeter (UVSP) instrument, SMM soft X-ray polychromator (XRP) raster maps, and high spatial resolution ultraviolet images of the sun in Lyman-alpha and in the 1600 A continuum. These data span together the upper solar atmosphere from the temperature minimum to the corona. The data are compared to maps of the inferred photospheric electric current derived from the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph observations. Some empirical correlation is found between regions of inferred electric current density and the brightest features in the ultraviolet continuum and to a lesser extent those seen in Lyman-alpha within an active region.

Haisch, B. M.↗

Observations at 6 cm of the solar active region

Preliminary results are reported for the synthesis of a solar active region from observations with a synthesis radio telescope at a wavelength of 6 cm. Several individual sources are observed in the total-intensity and circular-polarization maps. These are shown to correspond to two large sunspots, two groups of small sunspots, and a plage. A magnetogram indicates that this active region had a bipolar structure with positive polarity concentrated on the main sunspots and negative polarity scattered over the plage and some of the small sunspots. It is noted that several radio bursts were recorded during the observation period and that one corresponded to a H-alpha flare near one of the sunspot groups.

Kundu, M. R.↗

VLA observations of a solar active region and coronal loops

In May 1981, observations of a solar active region at 6 cm and 20 cm were conducted with the aid of a Very Large Array (VLA). It was found that the 6 cm emission was associated with sunspots and transverse magnetic fields between spots. The 20 cm emission came from elongated sources connecting regions of opposite magnetic polarity. The sources of the emission at 20 cm could be identified as coronal loops. A model for hydrostatic loops proposed by Rosner et al. (1978) was employed to determine a likely mechanism for the emission at 20 cm. It was found that a two-component model of bremsstrahlung emission from the feet and gyroresonance emission from the top of the loops can satisfactorily explain the observations.

Mcconnell, D.↗

Periodogram analysis of sunspot numbers and the relation with solar activities

The time series of average monthly sunspot numbers during 1900-1992 is studied by using power spectral analysis. This prediction method is used to study the sunspot periodicities relations between its, and with the other periodicities by solar activities. There are periodicities (between few days and 5 years) overwhelm on the mean solar cycle. ( 11 year cycle). These periodicities have the same relation with variations of solar constant and solar radiation reaching the Earth's atmosphere in the last solar cycle. These periods are related to the solar magnetic activity and to the modulation of solar features due to solar rotation.

Hady, Ahmed A.↗

Relationships between solar activity and climate change

Recurrent droughts are related to the double sunspot cycle. It is suggested that high solar activity generally increases meridional circulations and blocking patterns at high and intermediate latitudes, especially in winter. This effect is related to the sudden formation of cirrus clouds during strong geomagnetic activity that originates in the solar corpuscular emission.

Roberts, W. O.↗

Solar activity and the motions of the upper atmosphere

A possible mechanism for the action of solar radiation on the motion of the upper atmosphere is considered that includes the time dependent interplanetary field contour line and its effect on zonal wind velocity. A strong correlation is reported between this induction mechanism and those indices of solar activity that characterize the magnetic fields of the solar plasma.

Dmitriyev, A. A.↗

Scaler Rates from the Pierre Auger Observatory: A New Proxy of Solar Activity

The modulation of low-energy galactic cosmic rays reflects interplanetary magnetic field variations and can provide useful information on solar activity. An array of ground-surface detectors can reveal the secondary particles, which originate from the interaction of cosmic rays with the atmosphere. In this work, we present an investigation of the low-threshold rate (scaler) time series recorded in 16 yr of operation by the Pierre Auger Observatory surface detectors in Malargüe, Argentina. Through an advanced spectral analysis, we detected highly statistically significant variations in the time series with periods ranging from the decadal to the daily scale. We investigate their origin, revealing a direct connection with solar variability. Thanks to their intrinsic very low noise level, the Auger scalers allow a thorough and detailed investigation of the galactic cosmic-ray flux variations in the heliosphere at different timescales and can, therefore, be considered a new proxy of solar variability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Updated Solar Activity Prediction during the MAVEN Mission, but Should We Believe It?

Mars atmospheric processes are very dependent not only on the absolute level of the solar irradiance but also the changes in solar irradiance. Correlated with many of these irradiance changes, especially during solar flares, are large particle events called coronal mass ejections that themselves significantly drive processes in the Martian atmosphere. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a consensus solar cycle activity prediction for the upcoming solar cycle 24 maximum, and this maximum period of solar activity will be during the prime MAVEN science mission. This 'consensus' prediction calls for lower activity than the previous solar cycle maximum that occurred during the years 2001-2002, but looking at the wide spread of peer-reviewed predictions there is little faith that can be taken in any one prediction. This drives the importance of real-time measurements from the LPW/EUV diodes and the measurement and modeling results that will be improved upon using results from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).

Chamberlin, Philip↗

The relationship between solar activity and coronal hole evolution

The relationship between coronal hole evolution and solar active regions during the Skylab period is examined. A tendency is found for holes to grow or remain stable when the activity nearby, seen as calcium plages and bright regions in X-rays, is predominantly large, long-lived regions. It is also found that there is a significantly higher number of small, short-lived active regions, as indicated by X-ray bright points, in the vicinity of decaying holes than there is near other holes. This is interpreted to mean that holes disappear at least in part because they become filled with many small scale, magnetically closed, X-ray emitting features. This interpretation, together with the observation that the number of X-ray bright points was much larger near solar minimum than it was during the Skylab period, provides a possible explanation for the disappearance of the large, near-equatorial coronal holes at the time of solar minimum.

Nolte, J. T.↗

How Large Scale Flows in the Solar Convection Zone may Influence Solar Activity

Large scale flows within the solar convection zone are the primary drivers of the Sun s magnetic activity cycle. Differential rotation can amplify the magnetic field and convert poloidal fields into toroidal fields. Poleward meridional flow near the surface can carry magnetic flux that reverses the magnetic poles and can convert toroidal fields into poloidal fields. The deeper, equatorward meridional flow can carry magnetic flux toward the equator where it can reconnect with oppositely directed fields in the other hemisphere. These axisymmetric flows are themselves driven by large scale convective motions. The effects of the Sun s rotation on convection produce velocity correlations that can maintain the differential rotation and meridional circulation. These convective motions can influence solar activity themselves by shaping the large-scale magnetic field pattern. While considerable theoretical advances have been made toward understanding these large scale flows, outstanding problems in matching theory to observations still remain.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

A METHOD FOR DATA-DRIVEN SIMULATIONS OF EVOLVING SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS

We present a method for performing data-driven simulations of solar active region formation and evolution. The approach is based on magnetofriction, which evolves the induction equation assuming that the plasma velocity is proportional to the Lorentz force. The simulations of active region (AR) coronal field are driven by temporal sequences of photospheric magnetograms from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager instrument on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Under certain conditions, the data-driven simulations produce flux ropes that are ejected from the modeled AR due to loss of equilibrium. Following the ejection of flux ropes, we find an enhancement of the photospheric horizontal field near the polarity inversion line. We also present a method for the synthesis of mock coronal images based on a proxy emissivity calculated from the current density distribution in the model. This method yields mock coronal images that are somewhat reminiscent of images of ARs taken by instruments such as SDO's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly at extreme ultraviolet wavelengths.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗