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Results for “SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Quantitative Risk Assessments of Hydrogen Infrastructure

Typical QRAs provide deterministic estimates and understanding of risks posed but are constructed using significant assumptions and uncertainties due to limited data availability and historical momentum of using nominal estimates. This report presents a hydrogen QRA analysis using HyRAM+ that incorporates uncertainty with Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis using linear regression.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigating biomass composition and size effects on fast pyrolysis using global sensitivity analysis and CFD simulations

It is notoriously difficult to build an accurate universal model for biomass pyrolysis due to its sensitivity to a wide number of critical material attributes such as chemical species and physical sizes. In this work, a biomass pyrolysis kinetics with 32 heterogeneous reactions and 59 species was implemented in an open-source multiphase computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software MFiX and validated against two different experimental pyrolysis data sets that provided detailed data describing chemical component yields. The reaction scheme was then used to build a surrogate model and assess the sensitivity of pyrolysis yields to feedstock compositions. The sensitivity analysis determined that the yield of bio-char showed a strong positive sensitivity to the carbon-rich lignin and tannin pseudo-species in the reaction scheme while the bio-oil and bio-gas were correlated to oxygen-rich lignin pseudo-species. The reaction scheme was then integrated into a coarse-grained discrete element model to simulate fast pyrolysis in a bubbling fluidized bed over a range of feedstock particle sizes. The reactor simulations showed further sensitivity to particle size and hydrodynamics. Notably, particles under 0.5 mm have small heat transfer limitations but left the reactor before completely converting and thus reduced the bio-oil yield. Results from this study can be used to guide future development of highly accurate models for fast pyrolysis reactors with a variety of feedstock properties and operating conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Sensitivity Analysis of Aerosol Retrieval Algorithms Using Two-Channel Satellite Radiance Data

We discuss the methodology of interpreting channel 1 and 2 AVHRR radiance data to retrieve tropospheric aerosol properties over the ocean and describe a detailed analysis of the sensitivity of monthly average retrievals to the assumed aerosol models. We use real AVHRR data and accurate numerical techniques for computing single and multiple scattering and spectral absorption of light in the vertically inhomogeneous atmosphere-ocean system. Our analysis shows that two-channel algorithms can provide significantly more accurate retrievals of the aerosol optical thickness than one-channel algorithms and that imperfect cloud screening is the largest source of errors in the retrieved optical thickness. Both underestimating and overestimating aerosol absorption as well as strong variability of the aerosol refractive index may lead to regional and/or seasonal biases in optical thickness retrievals. The Angstrom exponent appears to be the most invariant aerosol size characteristic and should be retrieved along with optical thickness as the second aerosol parameter.

Geogdzhayev, Igor V.↗
DOE OSTI2022

NREL Waves to Water Prize Program: Sensitivity Analysis of Alternative Markets

Isle Inc., in collaboration with Engineering for Change (project team), performed a Sensitivity Analysis of market alternatives to evaluate commercialization barriers for the Waves to Water (W2W) competitors. This analysis included interviews with organizations and end-users in three market categories (1) Disaster Relief, (2) Commercial/Industrial, and (1) Municipal, Residential, and Government. For each category, the project team selected organizations that provided a well rounded experience and set of drivers for adopting W2W technologies. In addition to the project team's efforts, fellows from NREL/DOE completed interviews with government organizations to understand their potential to engage with W2W technologies, and these findings are summarized in a separate summary document.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS1991

A discourse on sensitivity analysis for discretely-modeled structures

A descriptive review is presented of the most recent methods for performing sensitivity analysis of the structural behavior of discretely-modeled systems. The methods are generally but not exclusively aimed at finite element modeled structures. Topics included are: selections of finite difference step sizes; special consideration for finite difference sensitivity of iteratively-solved response problems; first and second derivatives of static structural response; sensitivity of stresses; nonlinear static response sensitivity; eigenvalue and eigenvector sensitivities for both distinct and repeated eigenvalues; and sensitivity of transient response for both linear and nonlinear structural response.

Adelman, Howard M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis Tool for Electrochemical Conversion of CO2 to CO

Data presented in poster is sourced from the Electrochemical Catalyst Sensitivity Analysis Tool. This tool comprises a material balance model with cost estimation to estimate the levelized cost of product for CO production via CO2 electrolysis. A set of sensitivity analyses on key system and financial parameters is included with results so that users can test the impacts of these parameters on LCOP.

Henry, Samuel↗
NASA NTRS1991

Aerodynamic design optimization using sensitivity analysis and computational fluid dynamics

A new and efficient method is presented for aerodynamic design optimization, which is based on a computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-sensitivity analysis algorithm. The method is applied to design a scramjet-afterbody configuration for an optimized axial thrust. The Euler equations are solved for the inviscid analysis of the flow, which in turn provides the objective function and the constraints. The CFD analysis is then coupled with the optimization procedure that uses a constrained minimization method. The sensitivity coefficients, i.e. gradients of the objective function and the constraints, needed for the optimization are obtained using a quasi-analytical method rather than the traditional brute force method of finite difference approximations. During the one-dimensional search of the optimization procedure, an approximate flow analysis (predicted flow) based on a first-order Taylor series expansion is used to reduce the computational cost. Finally, the sensitivity of the optimum objective function to various design parameters, which are kept constant during the optimization, is computed to predict new optimum solutions. The flow analysis of the demonstrative example are compared with the experimental data. It is shown that the method is more efficient than the traditional methods.

Baysal, Oktay↗
NASA NTRS2015

Wear-Out Sensitivity Analysis Project Abstract

During the course of the Summer 2015 internship session, I worked in the Reliability and Maintainability group of the ISS Safety and Mission Assurance department. My project was a statistical analysis of how sensitive ORU's (Orbital Replacement Units) are to a reliability parameter called the wear-out characteristic. The intended goal of this was to determine a worst case scenario of how many spares would be needed if multiple systems started exhibiting wear-out characteristics simultaneously. The goal was also to determine which parts would be most likely to do so. In order to do this, my duties were to take historical data of operational times and failure times of these ORU's and use them to build predictive models of failure using probability distribution functions, mainly the Weibull distribution. Then, I ran Monte Carlo Simulations to see how an entire population of these components would perform. From here, my final duty was to vary the wear-out characteristic from the intrinsic value, to extremely high wear-out values and determine how much the probability of sufficiency of the population would shift. This was done for around 30 different ORU populations on board the ISS.

Harris, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity Analysis of Modal Parameters of a Jacket Offshore Wind Turbine to Operational Conditions

Accurate estimation of offshore wind turbine (OWT) modal parameters has a prominent effect on the design loads, lifetime prediction, and dynamic response of the system. Modal parameters can vary during the operation of OWTs. This paper studies the variation and sensitivity analysis of an OWT’s modal parameters with respect to operational and environmental conditions. Three finite element models of a jacket-supported OWT at the Block Island Wind Farm are created within the OpenSees, SAP2000, and OpenFAST platforms and validated using experimental measurements. The OpenFAST model is used to simulate the modal parameters of the turbine under various wind speed, rotor speed, power, yaw angle, mean sea level, blade pitch angle, and soil spring values. The model-predicted modal parameters of the first fore–aft (FA) and side–side (SS) modes are compared to those identified from experimental measurements. Results from the simulations show that the first FA natural frequency and damping ratio mostly depend on the rotor speed and wind speed, respectively, while yaw angle and mean sea level do not have a visible effect. It is observed that there is about 8% stiffening in the first FA frequency and an aerodynamic damping of 7.5% during the operation of the OWT.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1987

Sizing and shape design sensitivity analysis using a hybrid finite element code

The practical (software) implementation of the theoretical FEM-based design sensitivity analysis method of Haug et al. (1986) is described and demonstrated. The fundamental principles of the method are reviewed; the problems involved in applying it to the Engineering Analysis Language (EAL) hybrid FEM code (Whetstone, 1983) are discussed; the formulations for beams, plate bending, and built-up structures are given in detail; programming aspects are considered; and numerical results for sample problems are presented in extensive tables. It is shown that the use of a data-base management system with an FEM such as EAL makes it possible to obtain accurate sizing and shape design sensitivity information using only one program with one data base.

Dopker, Bernhard↗
NASA NTRS2013

Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion GNC

The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch.We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool (Critical Factors Tool or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.

Monte Carlo Simulation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parametric and Sensitivity Analysis of a Steam Generator Model Using Python and Machine-Learning Tools

For this study, we used Python and machine-learning tools to perform a comprehensive parametric and sensitivity analysis on a steam generator (SG) model. (The Python model was based on a previously completed MATLAB framework for the Holtec SMR-160 SG.) We investigated the influence of various input parameters (e.g., heat transfer coefficient [HTC], Nusselt number, and heat exchanger effectiveness) on the system’s output. With machine-learning tools such as the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN), which was developed at Idaho National Laboratory, we were then able to perform an automated analysis of the SG inputs’ effect on the HTC. The analysis results give valuable insights into the performance and optimization of SG systems. We found the inlet mass flow rate (MFR) to have the greatest impact on the HTC, followed closely by the inlet temperature, and then pressure. Shifting of the input parameters causes the location of the maximum HTC along the SG length to change incrementally. The cold leg (CL) MFR was also found to impact the HTC magnitude as well as the location of the maximum HTC. At between 0.4–0.9 of the total SG length, the input parameters experience maximum impact on the HTC, leading us to suggest that sensors be efficiently placed on the SG so as to closely and effectively monitor thermal-hydraulic properties during reactor operation. We also found that the sensitivity data calculated manually agrees with the RAVEN – based data, confirming the same range of maximum sensitivity. However, the RAVEN-based analysis showed that cold leg pressure and hot leg temperature have a greater impact on the heat transfer coefficient than the mass flow rate, implying that a manual sensitivity study taking only two samples is not accurate.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2018

High Accuracy Coronagraph Flight Model For WFIRST–CGI Raw Contrast Sensitivity Analysis

A high-accuracy high-fidelity flight wavefront control (WFC) model is developed for detailed raw contrast sensitivity analysis of WFIRST-CGI. Built upon features of recently testbed validated model, it is further refined to combine a full Fresnel propagation diffraction model for high accuracy contrast truth evaluation, and an economical compact model for WFC purposes. Extensive individual raw contrast error sensitivities are evaluated systematically, both as known imperfections and as unknown calibration errors, for both spectroscopy mode and wide field-of-view mode with shaped pupil coronagraph. More than 90 distinct error items were identified, including system aberrations, optical misalignment, component manufacturing error, telescope interface related errors, etc. The result forms the basis for raw contrast error budget flow down to a sub-system level, where detailed specifications needed to aid in component design and manufacturing, mechanical alignment and instrument integration, and verification and validation operations. Evaluations are mostly automated, making it relatively easy for repeat runs of revised design or at new desired error quantity. Top error sensitivities and contrast floor contributors are discussed and several observations are noted.

Poberezhskiy, Ilya↗
DOE OSTI2021

SAGE Intrusion Detection System: Sensitivity Analysis Guided Explainability for Machine Learning.

This report details the results of a three-fold investigation of sensitivity analysis (SA) for machine learning (ML) explainability (MLE): (1) the mathematical assessment of the fidelity of an explanation with respect to a learned ML model, (2) quantifying the trustworthiness of a prediction, and (3) the impact of MLE on the efficiency of end-users through multiple users studies. We focused on the cybersecurity domain as the data is inherently non-intuitive. As ML is being using in an increasing number of domains, including domains where being wrong can elicit high consequences, MLE has been proposed as a means of generating trust in a learned ML models by end users. However, little analysis has been performed to determine if the explanations accurately represent the target model and they themselves should be trusted beyond subjective inspection. Current state-of-the-art MLE techniques only provide a list of important features based on heuristic measures and/or make certain assumptions about the data and the model which are not representative of the real-world data and models. Further, most are designed without considering the usefulness by an end-user in a broader context. To address these issues, we present a notion of explanation fidelity based on Shapley values from cooperative game theory. We find that all of the investigated MLE explainability methods produce explanations that are incongruent with the ML model that is being explained. This is because they make critical assumptions about feature independence and linear feature interactions for computational reasons. We also find that in deployed, explanations are rarely used due to a variety of reason including that there are several other tools which are trusted more than the explanations and there is little incentive to use the explanations. In the cases when the explanations are used, we found that there is the danger that explanations persuade the end users to wrongly accept false positives and false negatives. However, ML model developers and maintainers find the explanations more useful to help ensure that the ML model does not have obvious biases. In light of these findings, we suggest a number of future directions including developing MLE methods that directly model non-linear model interactions and including design principles that take into account the usefulness of explanations to the end user. We also augment explanations with a set of trustworthiness measures that measure geometric aspects of the data to determine if the model output should be trusted.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2012

Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis for Launch Vehicles with Varying Payloads and Adapters for Structural Dynamics and Loads

This paper examines Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis (PSA) methods and tools in an effort to understand their utility in vehicle loads and dynamic analysis. Specifically, this study addresses how these methods may be used to establish limits on payload mass and cg location and requirements on adaptor stiffnesses while maintaining vehicle loads and frequencies within established bounds. To this end, PSA methods and tools are applied to a realistic, but manageable, integrated launch vehicle analysis where payload and payload adaptor parameters are modeled as random variables. This analysis is used to study both Regional Response PSA (RRPSA) and Global Response PSA (GRPSA) methods, with a primary focus on sampling based techniques. For contrast, some MPP based approaches are also examined.

McGhee, David S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity analysis for characterizing the impact of HNGD model on the prediction of hydrogen redistribution in Zircaloy cladding using BISON code

Hydrogen in zirconium cladding is able to precipitate into zirconium hydrides which impacts cladding integrity. The Hydride Nucleation-Growth-Dissolution (HNGD) model in the BISON code accounts for the precipitation and dissolution kinetics of hydride in Zircaloy material. This paper presents global sensitivity analyses of the HNGD model aiming to enhance our understanding of the hydride precipitation phenomena by quantifying the variance that key parameters have on the prediction of hydrogen behavior under various environmental conditions. Here, model predictions are compared to experimental data obtained under two different conditions: 1) with uniformly precharged specimens subjected to a linear thermal gradient, and 2) specimens precharged with a cathodically applied hydride rim at one end of the sample and subjected to an asymmetric thermal gradient. The Sobol sensitivity analysis identifies the key parameters in the HNGD model for both types of specimens. For linear temperature cases, the heat of transport dominates the accuracy of predictions when no precipitation occurs at the cold end, while Terminal Solid Solubility for Dissolution (TSSD) is the most important parameter when precipitation occurs. A large variation in the predicted hydrogen concentration profiles is found in the range of high TSSD due to the occurrence of precipitation. For asymmetric temperature cases, the solubility coefficient gives the largest impact on the predicted hydrogen distribution, as it determines the amount of solute hydrogen dissolved from the initially applied hydride rim. A large discrepancy in hydrogen distribution between simulations and experiments exists with the asymmetric specimens because BISON simulations fail to predict the precipitation of hydride at the cooler end. Comparative studies using former and updated models verifies the significant impact of the hydride growth mechanism on predicted hydrogen concentration profiles. In particular, when hydride initially exists, changes in TSSD generate a large variation in the predicted amount of precipitation by hydride growth, giving large uncertainty in predicting the hydrogen distribution over the sample length. The outputs characterize the significant impact of the hydride growth mechanism in the HNGD model on predicting hydrogen behavior, and improve the understanding of the precipitation of hydride in Zircaloy cladding within a range of expected environmental conditions. The analyses indicate work is still needed to improve the hydride solvus models in the BISON code to accurately predict experimentally observed hydride concentrations and distributions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1985

Shape design sensitivity analysis using domain information

A numerical method for obtaining accurate shape design sensitivity information for built-up structures is developed and demonstrated through analysis of examples. The basic character of the finite element method, which gives more accurate domain information than boundary information, is utilized for shape design sensitivity improvement. A domain approach for shape design sensitivity analysis of built-up structures is derived using the material derivative idea of structural mechanics and the adjoint variable method of design sensitivity analysis. Velocity elements and B-spline curves are introduced to alleviate difficulties in generating domain velocity fields. The regularity requirements of the design velocity field are studied.

Seong, Hwal-Gyeong↗
DOE OSTI2023

Industrial PLC Network Modeling and Parameter Identification Using Sensitivity Analysis and Mean Field Variational Inference

A multiple input multiple output (MIMO) power line communication (PLC) model for industrial facilities was developed that uses the physics of a bottom-up model but can be calibrated like top-down models. The PLC model considers 4-conductor cables (three-phase conductors and a ground conductor) and has several load types, including motor loads. The model is calibrated to data using mean field variational inference with a sensitivity analysis to reduce the parameter space. The results show that the inference method can accurately identify many of the model parameters, and the model is accurate even when the network is modified.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗