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At least 235 records · Page 13

Cost effectiveness of preemptive school closures to mitigate pandemic influenza outbreaks of differing severity in the United States

Background: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be considered as part of national pandemic preparedness as a first line defense against influenza pandemics. Preemptive school closures (PSCs) are an NPI reserved for severe pandemics and are highly effective in slowing influenza spread but have unintended consequences. Methods: We used results of simulated PSC impacts for a 1957-like pandemic (i.e., an influenza pandemic with a high case fatality rate) to estimate population health impacts and quantify PSC costs at the national level using three geographical scales, four closure durations, and three dismissal decision criteria (i.e., the number of cases detected to trigger closures). At the Chicago regional level, we also used results from simulated 1957-like, 1968-like, and 2009-like pandemics. Our net estimated economic impacts resulted from educational productivity costs plus loss of income associated with providing childcare during closures after netting out productivity gains from averted influenza illness based on the number of cases and deaths for each mitigation strategy. Results: For the 1957-like, national-level model, estimated net PSC costs and averted cases ranged from $\$7.5$ billion (2016 USD) averting 14.5 million cases for two-week, community-level closures to $\$97$ billion averting 47 million cases for 12-week, county-level closures. We found that 2-week school-by-school PSCs had the lowest cost per discounted life-year gained compared to county-wide or school district–wide closures for both the national and Chicago regional-level analyses of all pandemics. The feasibility of spatiotemporally precise triggering is questionable for most locales. Theoretically, this would be an attractive early option to allow more time to assess transmissibility and severity of a novel influenza virus. However, we also found that county-wide PSCs of longer durations (8 to 12 weeks) could avert the most cases (31–47 million) and deaths (105,000–156,000); however, the net cost would be considerably greater ($\$88$-$\$103$ billion net of averted illness costs) for the national-level, 1957-like analysis. Conclusions: We found that the net costs per death averted ($\$180,000$-$\$4.2$ million) for the national-level, 1957-like scenarios were generally less than the range of values recommended for regulatory impact analyses ($\$4.6$ to 15.0 million). This suggests that the economic benefits of national-level PSC strategies could exceed the costs of these interventions during future pandemics with highly transmissible strains with high case fatality rates. In contrast, the PSC outcomes for regional models of the 1968-like and 2009-like pandemics were less likely to be cost effective; more targeted and shorter duration closures would be recommended for these pandemics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Air-stable, earth-abundant molten chlorides and corrosion-resistant containment for chemically-robust, high-temperature thermal energy storage for concentrated solar power

A dramatic reduction in man-made CO 2 emissions could be achieved if the cost of electricity generated from concentrated solar power (CSP) plants could become competitive with fossil-fuel-derived electricity. The solar heat-to-electricity conversion efficiency of CSP plants may be significantly increased (and the associated electricity cost decreased) by operating CSP turbines with inlet temperatures ≥750 °C instead of ≤550 °C, and by using thermal energy storage (TES) at ≥750 °C to allow for rapidly dispatchable and/or continuous electricity production. Unfortunately, earth-abundant MgCl 2 -KCl-based liquids currently being considered as low-cost media for large-scale, high-temperature TES are susceptible to oxidation in ambient air, with associated undesired changes in liquid composition and enhanced corrosion of metal alloys in pipes and tanks containing such liquids. In this paper, alternative high-temperature, earth-abundant molten chlorides that are resistant to oxidation in ambient air are identified via thermodynamic calculations. Here, the oxidation resistance, and corrosion-resistant containment, of such molten chlorides at 750 °C are then demonstrated. Such an air-tolerant strategy, involving chemically-robust, low-cost TES media paired with effective containment materials, provides a critical advance towards the higher-temperature operation of, and lower-cost electricity generation from, CSP plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

HydroGEN Seedling: High-Temperature Reactor Catalyst Material Development for Low-Cost and Efficient Solar-Driven Sulfur-Based Processes

The HyS process, driven by solar power, has great potential to reach high-efficiency and low-cost hydrogen production without greenhouse gas emissions. The high-temperature section of the HyS cycle, which operates the catalytic decomposition of sulfuric acid into sulfur dioxide, oxygen, and water, is a fundamental part of the cycle affecting the overall plant efficiency and cost. Therefore, a high-performance catalyst (i.e., low cost, high catalytic activity, and low degradation catalyst) is of critical importance to achieve high efficiency and low hydrogen cost. Research and development has highlighted that a Pt-based monometallic catalyst had unacceptable catalytic activity and performance degradation for a high-efficiency and low-cost hydrogen production process. A high-efficiency solar receiver-reactor system, which incorporates the new catalyst, also needs to be developed to achieve the required plant efficiency and cost. Greenway Energy (GWE) and the University of South Carolina (USC), partnering with HydroGEN node laboratories Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL), and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), propose the development of a new catalyst formulation, included in a novel solar receiver-reactor concept, to be tested experimentally in the last part of the project.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Isobutanol production freed from biological limits using synthetic biochemistry

Cost competitive conversion of biomass-derived sugars into biofuel will require high yields, high volumetric productivities and high titers. Suitable production parameters are hard to achieve in cell-based systems because of the need to maintain life processes. As a result, next-generation biofuel production in engineered microbes has yet to match the stringent cost targets set by petroleum fuels. Removing the constraints imposed by having to maintain cell viability might facilitate improved production metrics. Here, we report a cell-free system in a bioreactor with continuous product removal that produces isobutanol from glucose at a maximum productivity of 4 g L –1 h –1 , a titer of 275 g L –1 and 95% yield over the course of nearly 5 days. These production metrics exceed even the highly developed ethanol fermentation process. Our results suggest that moving beyond cells has the potential to expand what is possible for bio-based chemical production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Estimating the cost and energy demand of producing lithium manganese oxide for Li-ion batteries

Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO) is one of the important cathode active materials used in lithium ion batteries of several electric vehicles. In this paper, the production of LMO cathode material for use in lithium-ion batteries is studied. Spreadsheet-based process models have been set up to estimate and analyze the factors affecting the cost of manufacturing, the energy demand, and the environmental impact. Two processes based on the solid-state synthesis method and a sol-gel method have been explored. Results show that the solid-state process is more cost-effective because of its lower cost of raw materials. The production cost for a solid-state process is $7 kg -1 and requires 6 kWh·kg -1 of energy. The pack level cost of electric vehicle battery using LMO as a primary active material is studied as a function of LMO production cost and other parameters. The potential for reducing the cost of automotive batteries to $100 per kWh is explored in terms of LMO price and plant production volume (economy of scale), using Argonne’s BatPaC spreadsheet tool.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Advanced supercritical water-based process concepts for treatment and beneficial reuse of brine in oil/gas production

Produced water generated from oil/gas reservoirs is a cost burden for oil/gas producers, with over 21 billion barrels of the waste generated in 2019. Average disposal costs range from 4.00–8.00·bbl -1 , with up to 20·bbl -1 spent on transportation alone. Dissolved solids content is a contributing factor which limits economical treatment options for this waste stream. This work proposes a novel technique that can handle high salinity waste, employing favorable properties past the critical point of water. In this study, process simulation of two supercritical water desalination (SCWD) scenarios was completed. Zero liquid discharge (ZLD) and brine concentration operating scenarios were compared, weighing the associated economics and benefits for each case. The results were shown to be economically feasible for brines with a high dissolved solids content, ranging from 3.49 to 17.28·bbl -1 in an expanded sensitivity analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Remote Sensing and Fluxes Upscaling for Real-world Impact (Workshop Report)

The "Remote Sensing and Fluxes Upscaling for Real-world Impact" workshop, held on July 9-10, 2024, at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, was a collaborative effort led by the AmeriFlux Management Project, NEON, and the Carbon Dew Community of Practice. The event brought together over 200 registrants and approximately 100 attendees each day, including leading experts, researchers, and practitioners. The primary focus was on bridging the gap between cutting-edge research and practical applications in environmental monitoring by integrating remote sensing and flux data. Key themes included the importance of site-level measurements for validating remote sensing products, providing nature-based climate solutions, and addressing challenges such as instrument costs and the need for standardized methods. At the regional scale, discussions centered on addressing spatial heterogeneity and using high-resolution remote sensing and machine learning methods to enhance data interpretation. Global scale challenges included data consistency, gap filling, and accurate emission source identification, with opportunities for international collaboration and standardized practices to improve global carbon budget assessments. The workshop emphasized the critical need for integrating data across local, regional, and global scales through explicit scale-matching and developed a workflow for scaling flux data using "straight shot" and "explicit nesting" approaches. The event highlighted the importance of connecting scientific research with real-world applications in carbon, energy, and water management, ensuring that advancements translate into tangible societal benefits. These insights will guide future research, technology transfer, and collaboration, maximizing the potential of environmental fluxes to address real-world challenges.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ramjet cost estimating handbook

The subject program was conducted for the purpose of generating cost information on ramjet engines and developing a methodology that could be employed to accurately predict production costs ramjet engines. The methodology addresses many different ramjet types, sizes and production quantities. The methodology determines the cost of individual modules of ramjet assemblies based on similarity of the modules to baseline components that are identified in a cost handbook. (There are typically around 20 basic components of a given ramjet to be costed.) The total cost of the engine is a summation of all the appropriate cost elements. A significant accomplishment of the program was the development of a large cost data base on many different configurations, materials of construction and variations in manufacturing processes. This data base should provide a good foundation on which to build other cost data as it becomes available.

Emmons, H. T.↗

A Solution in Search of Problems

Ferrofluids offered vast-problem solving potential. Under license for the NASA technology, Dr. Ronald Moskowitz and Dr. Ronald Rosensweig formed Ferrofluids Corporation. First problem they found a solution for was related to the manufacture of semiconductor "chips" for use in electronic systems. They developed a magnetic seal composed of ferrofluid and a magnetic circuit. Magnetic field confines the ferrofluid in the regions between the stationary elements and the rotary shaft of the seal. Result is a series of liquid barriers that totally bar passage of contaminants. Seal is virtually wear-proof and has a lifetime measured in billions of shaft revolutions. It has reduced maintenance, minimizes "downtime" of production equipment, and reduces the cost of expensive materials that had previously been lost through seal failures. Products based on ferrofluid are exclusion seals for computer disc drives and inertia dampers for stepper motors. Uses are performance-improving, failure-reducing coolants for hi-fi loudspeakers. Other applications include analytical instrumentation, medical equipment, industrial processes, silicon crystal growing furnaces, plasma processes, fusion research, visual displays, and automated machine tools.

Source record↗

Pt: Ti Diffusion Barrier, Interconnect, and Simultaneous Ohmic Contacts to n- and p-type 4H-SiC

We report the initial results of using co-sputtered Pt:Ti 80:20 at. % composition ratio metallization as a diffusion barrier against gold (Au) and oxygen (O), as an interconnect layer, as well as forming simultaneous ohmic contacts to n-and p-type 4H-SiC. Having a single conductor with such combined multi-functional attributes would appreciably reduce the fabrication costs, processing time and complexity that are inherent in the production of SiC based devices. Auger Electron Spectroscopy, Focused Ion Beam-assisted Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy analyses revealed no Au and O migration to the SiC contact surface and minimal diffusion through the Pt:Ti barrier layer after 15 minutes of exposure at 800 °C in atmosphere, thus offering potential long term stability of the ohmic contacts. Specific contact resistance values of 7 x 10(exp -5) and 7.4 x 10(exp -4) Ω-sq.cm were obtained on the n (N(sub d)=7 x 10(exp 18) per cu.cm and p (N(sub a)=2 x 10(exp 20) per cu. cm) -type 4H-SiC, respectively. The resistivity of 75 μΩ-cm was obtained for the Pt:Ti layer that was sandwiched between two SiO2 layers and annealed in pure O ambient up to 900 °C, which offers promise as a high temperature interconnect metallization.

Simultaneous Ohmic Contact↗

A nonparametric approach to modeling dependence among production parameters for energy cost estimation

Dependence existing among production parameters can significantly affect energy costs. For material removal processes, processing times and material amounts to be cut have positive dependence, and the dependence can affect energy costs by varying a peak electricity load. Existing methods to model the dependence of production parameters are based on parametric approaches that cannot accurately represent the dependence due to the rigid nature of parametric models. To address this issue, this study proposes a method to quantify dependence among manufacturing parameters through the application of the empirical copula to the dependence between the milling processing time and the amount of volume to be cut. The proposed method is illustrated by a case study of a manufacturing facility consisting of milling machines; a total of 27 scenarios are simulated for energy cost estimations. The case study clearly shows that the proposed method can capture the dependence between the milling parameters more accurately than a conventional dependence measure from parametric correlation models. Furthermore, the findings from this study would be useful to estimate energy costs in that the proposed method provides a better fit to real production data than conventional parametric approaches can.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Bioregenerative food system cost based on optimized menus for advanced life support

Optimized menus for a bioregenerative life support system have been developed based on measures of crop productivity, food item acceptability, menu diversity, and nutritional requirements of crew. Crop-specific biomass requirements were calculated from menu recipe demands while accounting for food processing and preparation losses. Under the assumption of staggered planting, the optimized menu demanded a total crop production area of 453 m2 for six crew. Cost of the bioregenerative food system is estimated at 439 kg per menu cycle or 7.3 kg ESM crew-1 day-1, including agricultural waste processing costs. On average, about 60% (263.6 kg ESM) of the food system cost is tied up in equipment, 26% (114.2 kg ESM) in labor, and 14% (61.5 kg ESM) in power and cooling. This number is high compared to the STS and ISS (nonregenerative) systems but reductions in ESM may be achieved through intensive crop productivity improvements, reductions in equipment masses associated with crop production, and planning of production, processing, and preparation to minimize the requirement for crew labor.

Non-NASA Center↗

Genopersistating the system

The concept of competitiveness is considered as a function of both high quality and low cost, and the techniques which drive a design simultaneously in both directions. In order to examine these techniques, the term 'genopersistation', which is derived from the words 'genesis' and 'persistence' and defined to mean the bringing forth, sustaining, and eventual annihilation of something. For a product, the term includes the conceptual design, design development, test and evaluation, production, deployment, operation, support, evolution, and retirement of product. The techniques are summarized which can be used to simultaneously genopersistate both the high quality and low cost into a product. Attention is given to Taguchi (1986) methods, the response surface methodology (Montgomery, 1984), Quality Function Deployment (Akao, 1990), Hoshin Kanari (Akao, 1991), activity based costing (O'Guin, 1991), concurrent engineering (Carter and Baker, 1991), and multidisciplinary optimization (Evans, 1984).

Dean, Edwin B.↗

Evaluating the feasibility of biological waste processing for long term space missions

Recycling waste products during orbital (e.g., International Space Station) and planetary missions (e.g., lunar base, Mars transit mission, Martian base) will reduce storage and resupply costs. Wastes streams on the space station will include human hygiene water, urine, faeces, and trash. Longer term missions will contain human waste and inedible plant material from plant growth systems used for atmospheric regeneration, food production, and water recycling. The feasibility of biological and physical-chemical waste recycling is being investigated as part of National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program. In-vessel composting has lower manpower requirements, lower water and volume requirements, and greater potential for sanitization of human waste compared to alternative bioreactor designs such as continuously stirred tank reactors (CSTR). Residual solids from the process (i.e. compost) could be used a biological air filter, a plant nutrient source, and a carbon sink. Potential in-vessel composting designs for both near- and long-term space missions are presented and discussed with respect to the unique aspects of space-based systems.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

Direct Electrolysis of Molten Lunar Regolith for the Production of Oxygen and Metals on the Moon

When considering the construction of a lunar base, the high cost ($ 100,000 a kilogram) of transporting materials to the surface of the moon is a significant barrier. Therefore in-situ resource utilization will be a key component of any lunar mission. Oxygen gas is a key resource, abundant on earth and absent on the moon. If oxygen could be produced on the moon, this provides a dual benefit. Not only does it no longer need to be transported to the surface for breathing purposes; it can also be used as a fuel oxidizer to support transportation of crew and other materials more cheaply between the surface of the moon, and lower earth orbit (approximately $20,000/kg). To this end a stable, robust (lightly manned) system is required to produce oxygen from lunar resources. Herein, we investigate the feasibility of producing oxygen, which makes up almost half of the weight of the moon by direct electrolysis of the molten lunar regolith thus achieving the generation of usable oxygen gas while producing primarily iron and silicon at the cathode from the tightly bound oxides. The silicate mixture (with compositions and mechanical properties corresponding to that of lunar regolith) is melted at temperatures near 1600 C. With an inert anode and suitable cathode, direct electrolysis (no supporting electrolyte) of the molten silicate is carried out, resulting in production of molten metallic products at the cathode and oxygen gas at the anode. The effect of anode material, sweep rate, and electrolyte composition on the electrochemical behavior was investigated and implications for scale-up are considered. The activity and stability of the candidate anode materials as well as the effect of the electrolyte composition were determined. Additionally, ex-situ capture and analysis of the anode gas to calculate the current efficiency under different voltages, currents and melt chemistries was carried out.

Sirk, Aislinn H. C.↗

Modeling Global Carbon Costs of Plant Nitrogen and Phosphorus Acquisition

Abstract Most Earth system models (ESMs) do not explicitly represent the carbon (C) costs of plant nutrient acquisition, which leads to uncertainty in predictions of the current and future constraints to the land C sink. We integrate a plant productivity‐optimizing nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) acquisition model (fixation & uptake of nutrients, FUN) into the energy exascale Earth system (E3SM) land model (ELM). Global plant N and P uptake are dynamically simulated by ELM‐FUN based on the C costs of nutrient acquisition from mycorrhizae, direct root uptake, retranslocation from senescing leaves, and biological N fixation. We benchmarked ELM‐FUN with three classes of products: ILAMB, a remotely sensed nutrient limitation product, and CMIP6 models; we found significant improvements in C cycle variables, although the lack of more observed nutrient data prevents a comprehensive level of benchmarking. Overall, we found N and P co‐limitation for 80% of land area, with the remaining 20% being either predominantly N or P limited. Globally, the new model predicts that plants invested 4.1 Pg C yr −1 to acquire 841.8 Tg N yr −1 and 48.1 Tg P yr −1 (1994–2005), leading to significant downregulation of global net primary production (NPP). Global NPP is reduced by 20% with C costs of N and 50% with C costs of NP. Modeled and observed nutrient limitation agreement increases when N and P are considered together ( r 2 from 0.73 to 0.83).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

State of Innovation 2024: Paving the Way for Low-Carbon Cement and Concrete

Concrete production in the U.S. accounted for nearly 393 million cubic yards in 2023, with $38.8 billion in revenue. While cement, the key ingredient in concrete, is only 10%-15% of concrete's mixture by mass, 8% of total global emissions come from the production of cement. A significant challenge lies in the fact that roughly 51% of concrete emissions stem from the material calcination process of cement production. Stakeholders ranging from cement producers to government agencies are beginning to take measures to significantly reduce concrete emissions by 2050 and are seeking novel technologies from the startup community. Strategies to lower carbon emissions include reducing quantities of cement in concrete formulas; optimizing digital and automated production; lower temperature processing; carbon capture, utilization, and durable storage; and other cost-saving approaches to energy and material efficiencies. New materials based on carbon mineralization and novel cement chemistries hold the potential to reach net-zero or even carbon-negative concrete production; however, there is presently no readily available substitute that can replicate concrete's unique properties and versatility at the volume demanded by construction worldwide. The nature of concrete's raw materials, diverse applications, and scale of demand means that complete decarbonization will rely on a combination of innovative production methods and novel cement chemistries. Low-carbon solutions will need to compete economically with traditional concrete to become viable in a high-volume commodity market, although consumer demand and regulation will play important roles. Despite these challenges, this analysis reveals that venture capital (VC) investments in low-carbon concrete reflect a growing awareness of the decarbonized cement market opportunity. Between 2022 and 2023 emerging low-carbon technologies garnered more than $700 million in VC investments, representing a growing share of investment in the built environment. An investment gap appears after Series A for technology solutions, demonstrating the sector's potential, as well as the need for additional performance assurance and technology incubation.

cement↗