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At least 235 records · Page 13

Sea Surface Salinity Variability from Simulations and Observations: Preparing for Aquarius

Oceanic fresh water transport has been shown to play an important role in the global hydrological cycle. Sea surface salinity (SSS) is representative of the surface fresh water fluxes and the upcoming Aquarius mission scheduled to be launched in December 2010 will provide excellent spatial and temporal SSS coverage to better estimate the net exchange. In most ocean general circulation models, SSS is relaxed to climatology to prevent model drift. While SST remains a well observed variable, relaxing to SST reduces the range of SSS variability in the simulations (Fig.1). The main objective of the present study is to simulate surface tracers using a primitive equation ocean model for multiple forcing data sets to identify and establish a baseline SSS variability. The simulated variability scales are compared to those from near-surface argo salinity measurements.

Jacob, S. Daniel↗

Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions

Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.

variability↗

The Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts. Our coupled model is composed of a primitive equation ocean model for the tropical Indo-Pacific region that is coupled with the global SPEEDY atmospheric model (Molteni, 2003). The Ensemble Reduced Order Kalman Filter is used to assimilate observations to constrain dynamics and thermodynamics for initialization of the coupled model. The baseline experiment assimilates satellite sea level, SST, and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations. This baseline is then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (version 4.0) and SMAP (version 2.0) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from Sep. 2011 to Dec. 2016. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation after 1 out to 12 month forecast lead times. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10 degrees South latitude-5 degrees North latitude. SST differences at initialization force wide-spread downwelling favorable curl over most of the tropical Pacific. Over an average forecast, SST remains warmer with SSS assimilation at the eastern edge of the warm pool. This warm SST propagates into the eastern Pacific and drags westerly wind anomalies eastward into the NINO 3.4 region. In addition, salting near the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) leads to a deepening of the mixed layer and thermocline near 8 degrees North latitude. These patterns together lead to a funneling effect that provides the background state to amplify equatorial Kelvin waves. We show that the downwelling Kelvin waves are amplified by assimilating satellite SSS and lead to significantly improved forecasts particularly for the 2015 El Nino.

El Nino↗

The Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts. Our coupled model is composed of a primitive equation ocean model for the tropical Indo-Pacific region that is coupled with the global SPEEDY atmospheric model (Molteni, 2003). The Ensemble Reduced Order Kalman Filter is used to assimilate observations to constrain dynamics and thermodynamics for initialization of the coupled model. The baseline experiment assimilates satellite sea level, SST, and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations. This baseline is then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (version 4.0) and SMAP (version 2.0) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from Sep. 2011 to Dec. 2016. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation after 1 out to 12 month forecast lead times. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. SST differences at initialization force wide-spread downwelling favorable curl over most of the tropical Pacific. Over an average forecast, SST remains warmer with SSS assimilation at the eastern edge of the warm pool. This warm SST propagates into the eastern Pacific and drags westerly wind anomalies eastward into the NINO3.4 region. In addition, salting near the ITCZ leads to a deepening of the mixed layer and thermocline near 8N. These patterns together lead to a funneling effect that provides the background state to amplify equatorial Kelvin waves. We show that the downwelling Kelvin waves are amplified by assimilating satellite SSS and lead to significantly improved forecasts particularly for the 2015 El Nino.

SST↗

An Approximate Kalman Filter for Ocean Data Assimilation; An Example with an Idealized Gulf Stream Model

A practical method of data assimilation for use with large, nonlinear, ocean general circulation models is explored. A Kalman filter based on approximations of the state error covariance matrix is presented, employing a reduction of the effective model dimension, the error's asymptotic steady-state limit, and a time-invariant linearization of the dynamic model for the error integration. The approximations lead to dramatic computational savings in applying estimation theory to large complex systems. We examine the utility of the approximate filter in assimilating different measurement types using a twin experiment of an idealized Gulf Stream. A nonlinear primitive equation model of an unstable east-west jet is studied with a state dimension exceeding 170,000 elements. Assimilation of various pseudo measurements is examined, including velocity, density, and volume transport at localized arrays, and realistic distributions of satellite altimetry and acoustic tomography observations. Results are compared in terms of their effects on the accuracies of the estimation. The approximate filter is shown to outperform a previous study that used an empirical nudging scheme. The examples demonstrate that useful approximate estimation errors can be computed in a practical manner for general circulation models.

['Kalman↗

Australian tidal currents – assessment of a barotropic model (COMPAS v1.3.0 rev6631) with an unstructured grid

While the variations of tidal range are large and fairly well known across Australia (less than 1 m near Perth but more than 14 m in King Sound), the properties of the tidal currents are not. We describe a new regional model of Australian tides and assess it against a validation dataset comprising tidal height and velocity constituents at 615 tide gauge sites and 95 current meter sites. The model is a barotropic implementation of COMPAS, an unstructured-grid primitive-equation model that is forced at the open boundaries by TPXO9v1. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the modelled M2 height amplitude is 8.8 cm, or 12 % of the 73 cm mean observed amplitude. The MAE of phase (10°), however, is significant, so the M2 mean magnitude of vector error (MMVE, 18.2 cm) is significantly greater. The root sum square over the eight major constituents is 26 % of the observed amplitude. We conclude that while the model has skill at height in all regions, there is definitely room for improvement (especially at some specific locations). For the M2 major axis velocity amplitude, the MAE across the 95 current meter sites, where the observed amplitude ranges from 0.1 to 156 cm s −1 , is 6.9 cm s −1 , or 22 % of the 31.7 cm s −1 observed mean. This nationwide average result is encouraging, but it conceals a very large regional variation. Relative errors of the tidal current amplitudes on the narrow shelves of New South Wales (NSW) and Western Australia exceed 100 %, but tidal currents are weak and negligible there compared to non-tidal currents, so the tidal errors are of little practical significance. Looking nationwide, we show that the model has predictive value for much of the 79 % of Australia's shelf seas where tides are a major component of the total velocity variability. In descending order this includes the Bass Strait, the Kimberley to Arnhem Land, and southern Great Barrier Reef regions. There is limited observational evidence to confirm that the model is also valuable for currents in other regions across northern Australia. We plan to commence publishing “unofficial” tidal current predictions for chosen regions in the near future based on both our COMPAS model and the validation dataset we have assembled.

Tidal currents↗

Theory and modeling of atmospheric turbulence, part 2

Two dimensional geostrophic turbulence driven by a random force is investigated. Based on the Liouville equation, which simulates the primitive hydrodynamical equations, a group-kinetic theory of turbulence is developed and the kinetic equation of the scaled singlet distribution is derived. The kinetic equation is transformed into an equation of spectral balance in the equilibrium and non-equilibrium states. Comparison is made between the propagators and the Green's functions in the case of the non-asymptotic quasi-linear equation to prove the equivalence of both kinds of approximations used to describe perturbed trajectories of plasma turbulence. The microdynamical state of fluid turbulence is described by a hydrodynamical system and transformed into a master equation analogous to the Vlasov equation for plasma turbulence. The spectral balance for the velocity fluctuations of individual components shows that the scaled pressure strain correlation and the cascade transfer are two transport functions that play the most important roles.

Chen, C. M.↗

Study of three-dimensional effects on vortex breakdown

The incompressible axisymmetric steady Navier-Stokes equations in primitive variables are used to simulate vortex breakdown. The equations, discretized using a second-order, central-difference scheme, are linearized and then solved using an exact LU decomposition, Gaussian elimination, and Newton iteration. Solutions are presented for Reynolds numbers, based on vortex-core radius, as high as 1500. An attempt to study the stability of the axisymmetric solutions against three-dimensional perturbations is discussed.

Salas, M. D.↗

First-Order System Least-Squares for the Navier-Stokes Equations

This paper develops a least-squares approach to the solution of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in primitive variables. As with our earlier work on Stokes equations, we recast the Navier-Stokes equations as a first-order system by introducing a velocity flux variable and associated curl and trace equations. We show that the resulting system is well-posed, and that an associated least-squares principle yields optimal discretization error estimates in the H(sup 1) norm in each variable (including the velocity flux) and optimal multigrid convergence estimates for the resulting algebraic system.

Bochev, P.↗

Unsteady solution of incompressible Navier-Stokes equations

The numerical scheme used by the present time-accurate FEM numerical method for incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, using primitive variables as the unknowns, is a Crank-Nicholson implicit treatment of all equation terms with central differencing for space derivatives. The introduction of a continuous auxilliary system in pseudo-time, with artificial compressibility, yields the incompressible solution at the advanced time level; time-accurate solutions are thereby obtained for two-dimensional fluid flows in a square cavity, in the cases of both an impulsively starting lid and an oscillating lid.

Soh, W. Y.↗

A numerical investigation of the finite element method in compressible primitive variable Navier-Stokes flow

The results of a comprehensive numerical investigation of the basic capabilities of the finite element method (FEM) for numerical solution of compressible flow problems governed by the two-dimensional and axis-symmetric Navier-Stokes equations in primitive variables are presented. The strong and weak points of the method as a tool for computational fluid dynamics are considered. The relation of the linear element finite element method to finite difference methods (FDM) is explored. The calculation of free shear layer and separated flows over aircraft boattail afterbodies with plume simulators indicate the strongest assets of the method are its capabilities for reliable and accurate calculation employing variable grids which readily approximate complex geometry and capably adapt to the presence of diverse regions of large solution gradients without the necessity of domain transformation.

Cook, C. H.↗

Large-eddy simulation of a turbulent mixing layer

The three dimensional, time dependent (incompressible) vorticity equations were used to simulate numerically the decay of isotropic box turbulence and time developing mixing layers. The vorticity equations were spatially filtered to define the large scale turbulence field, and the subgrid scale turbulence was modeled. A general method was developed to show numerical conservation of momentum, vorticity, and energy. The terms that arise from filtering the equations were treated (for both periodic boundary conditions and no stress boundary conditions) in a fast and accurate way by using fast Fourier transforms. Use of vorticity as the principal variable is shown to produce results equivalent to those obtained by use of the primitive variable equations.

Mansour, N. N.↗

The multiple nesting of mesoscale, submesoscale, and nonhydrostatic microscale numerical models for a case of mesocyclogenesis and severe storm development

A fundamental approach involving the integration of two different numerical models over several different spatial mesh lengths is considered. Model I is a hydrostatic, incompressible, and adiabatic primitive (Newtonian) equation set with no boundary layer forcing, i.e., surface heat or moisture flux or external frictional stresses. Typically this model is initialized from conventional radiosonde data and run for a 12-15 hour forecast period over a 40 km horizontal mesh. If phase I of the tornado developmental processes develops, the data is 'frozen' in space and time, interpolated to a 20 km mesh, and integrated for a shorter time period (3 hours) with a shorter time step. Model II is a nonhydrostatic compressible 18-level complement of model I. If model II indicates the development of the intensification of phase V dynamical processes, the data is frozen and interpolated to finer mesh lengths until the tornadic circulation system is approximated

Kaplan, M. L.↗

Calculations of rotational flows using stream function

The stream function equation is solved for steady two-dimensional (and axisymmetric) rotational flows. Both finite differences and finite volumes discretization techniques are studied, using generalized body fitted coordinates and unstructured staggered grids, respectively. For inviscid transonic flows, a new artificial viscosity scheme which does not produce any artificial vorticity is introduced, for the stability of the mixed flow calculations and for capturing shocks. The solution of Euler equations, in primitive variables, are also considered. The effects of the artificial viscosity and numerical boundary conditions on the total enthalpy and the vorticity distributions are demonstrated.

Hafez, M.↗

Application of multi-grid methods for solving the Navier-Stokes equations

This paper presents the application of a class of multi-grid methods to the solution of the Navier-Stokes equations for two-dimensional laminar flow problems. The methods consists of combining the full approximation scheme-full multi-grid technique (FAS-FMG) with point-, line- or plane-relaxation routines for solving the Navier-Stokes equations in primitive variables. The performance of the multi-grid methods is compared to those of several single-grid methods. The results show that much faster convergence can be procured through the use of the multi-grid approach than through the various suggestions for improving single-grid methods. The importance of the choice of relaxation scheme for the multi-grid method is illustrated.

Demuren, A. O.↗

Application of multi-grid methods for solving the Navier-Stokes equations

The application of a class of multi-grid methods to the solution of the Navier-Stokes equations for two-dimensional laminar flow problems is discussed. The methods consist of combining the full approximation scheme-full multi-grid technique (FAS-FMG) with point-, line-, or plane-relaxation routines for solving the Navier-Stokes equations in primitive variables. The performance of the multi-grid methods is compared to that of several single-grid methods. The results show that much faster convergence can be procured through the use of the multi-grid approach than through the various suggestions for improving single-grid methods. The importance of the choice of relaxation scheme for the multi-grid method is illustrated.

Demuren, A. O.↗