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Results for “Prediction Accuracy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning-based microstructure prediction during laser sintering of alumina

Abstract Predicting material’s microstructure under new processing conditions is essential in advanced manufacturing and materials science. This is because the material’s microstructure hugely influences the material’s properties. We demonstrate an elegant machine learning algorithm that faithfully predicts the microstructure under new conditions, without the need of knowing the governing laws. We name this algorithm, RCWGAN-GP, which is regression-based conditional generative adversarial networks with Wasserstein loss function and gradient penalty. This algorithm was trained with experimental SEM micrographs from laser-sintered alumina under various laser powers. The RCWGAN-GP realistically regenerates the SEM micrographs under the trained laser powers. Impressively, it also faithfully predicts the alumina’s microstructure under unexplored laser powers. The predicted microstructure features, including the morphology of the sintered particles and the pores, match the experimental SEM micrographs very well. We further quantitatively examined the prediction accuracy of the RCWGAN-GP. We trained the algorithm with computer-created micrograph datasets of secondary-phase growth governed by the well-known Johnson–Mehl–Avrami (JMA) equation. The RCWGAN-GP accurately regenerates the micrographs at the trained time series, in terms of the grains’ shapes, sizes, and spatial distributions. More importantly, the predicted secondary phase fraction accurately follows the JMA curve.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Traffic safety analysis and model updating for freeways using Bayesian method

Freeway crash prediction models are the basic of traffic safety research, yet crash occurrence and the influencing factors change over time. In order to make sure the implemented safety models fit the current traffic environment, this study conducts a comparative analysis of 2017 and 2020 datasets collected from freeways in Suzhou, China. Herein, considering the spatial correlation among analysis units and the hierarchical data structure, a Bayesian conditional autoregressive negative binomial (CAR-NB) model and a Bayesian hierarchical CAR-NB (HCAR-NB) model were used to explore the safety influencing factors, and a traditional NB model was developed for further comparison. To update the HCAR-NB model from 2017 to 2020, Bayesian inference with informative priors was used to improve its goodness of fit and efficiency. Preliminary results showed that 1) the HCAR-NB model outperformed the NB model and CAR-NB model in prediction accuracy, and 2) the number of crashes was significantly correlated with average speed, speed variance, road segment length, number of lanes, and presence of ramps. The potential for safety improvement (PSI) method was applied to the modeling results to identify hotspots for the two years. The results confirmed that the hotspots spatiotemporally shifted among the freeways. The proposed crash prediction model and updating method are expected to assist implementation of informed countermeasures for freeway safety improvement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Molecular-orbital-based machine learning for open-shell and multi-reference systems with kernel addition Gaussian process regression

We introduce a novel machine learning strategy, kernel addition Gaussian process regression (KA-GPR), in molecular-orbital-based machine learning (MOB-ML) to learn the total correlation energies of general electronic structure theories for closed- and open-shell systems by introducing a machine learning strategy. The learning efficiency of MOB-ML(KA-GPR) is the same as the original MOB-ML method for the smallest criegee molecule, which is a closed-shell molecule with multi-reference characters. In addition, the prediction accuracies of different small free radicals could reach the chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol by training on one example structure. Accurate potential energy surfaces for the H10 chain (closed-shell) and water OH bond dissociation (open-shell) could also be generated by MOB-ML(KA-GPR). To explore the breadth of chemical systems that KA-GPR can describe, we further apply MOB-ML to accurately predict the large benchmark datasets for closed- (QM9, QM7b-T, and GDB-13-T) and open-shell (QMSpin) molecules.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Spatial Distribution of Snow Water Equivalent by Combining Meteorological and Satellite Data with Lidar Maps

Abstract An accurate characterization of the water content of snowpack, or snow water equivalent (SWE), is necessary to quantify water availability and constrain hydrologic and land surface models. Recently, airborne observations (e.g., lidar) have emerged as a promising method to accurately quantify SWE at high resolutions (scales of ∼100 m and finer). However, the frequency of these observations is very low, typically once or twice per season in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Here, we present a machine learning framework that is based on random forests to model temporally sparse lidar-derived SWE, enabling estimation of SWE at unmapped time points. We approximated the physical processes governing snow accumulation and melt as well as snow characteristics by obtaining 15 different variables from gridded estimates of precipitation, temperature, surface reflectance, elevation, and canopy. Results showed that, in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, our framework is capable of modeling SWE with a higher accuracy when compared with estimates generated by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). The mean value of the coefficient of determination R 2 using our approach was 0.57, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 13 cm, which was a significant improvement over SNODAS (mean R 2 = 0.13; RMSE = 20 cm). We explored the relative importance of the input variables and observed that, at the spatial resolution of 800 m, meteorological variables are more important drivers of predictive accuracy than surface variables that characterize the properties of snow on the ground. This research provides a framework to expand the applicability of lidar-derived SWE to unmapped time points. Significance Statement Snowpack is the main source of freshwater for close to 2 billion people globally and needs to be estimated accurately. Mountainous snowpack is highly variable and is challenging to quantify. Recently, lidar technology has been employed to observe snow in great detail, but it is costly and can only be used sparingly. To counter that, we use machine learning to estimate snowpack when lidar data are not available. We approximate the processes that govern snowpack by incorporating meteorological and satellite data. We found that variables associated with precipitation and temperature have more predictive power than variables that characterize snowpack properties. Our work helps to improve snowpack estimation, which is critical for sustainable management of water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning materials properties with accurate predictions, uncertainty estimates, domain guidance, and persistent online accessibility

One compelling vision of the future of materials discovery and design involves the use of machine learning (ML) models to predict materials properties and then rapidly find materials tailored for specific applications. However, realizing this vision requires both providing detailed uncertainty quantification (model prediction errors and domain of applicability) and making models readily usable. At present, it is common practice in the community to assess ML model performance only in terms of prediction accuracy (e.g. mean absolute error), while neglecting detailed uncertainty quantification and robust model accessibility and usability. Here, we demonstrate a practical method for realizing both uncertainty and accessibility features with a large set of models. We develop random forest ML models for 33 materials properties spanning an array of data sources (computational and experimental) and property types (electrical, mechanical, thermodynamic, etc). All models have calibrated ensemble error bars to quantify prediction uncertainty and domain of applicability guidance enabled by kernel-density-estimate-based feature distance measures. All data and models are publicly hosted on the Garden-AI infrastructure, which provides an easy-to-use, persistent interface for model dissemination that permits models to be invoked with only a few lines of Python code. We demonstrate the power of this approach by using our models to conduct a fully ML-based materials discovery exercise to search for new stable, highly active perovskite oxide catalyst materials.

domain of applicability↗

DOE OSTI2024

Chemical detection system with at least one electronic nose

A system for predicting one or more analytes based on outputs from thin film gas sensors is provided. The system may comprise an electronic nose (e-nose). The e-nose may comprise the gas sensors and a first processor. The system may further comprise a second processor. The second processor may be configured to receive the output from each of the gas sensors, evaluate a prediction accuracy using an evaluation parameter of each of a plurality of models which are trained and tested and select a model from among the plurality of models to deploy based on a comparison of the evaluation parameter for each of the plurality of models and use the same. The second processor may also receive, an output of each of the gas sensors caused by unknown one or more analytes; and predict, using the deployed model, the one or more analytes that causes the output.

Ivanov, Ilia N.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resilience and fault tolerance in high-performance computing for numerical weather and climate prediction

Progress in numerical weather and climate prediction accuracy greatly depends on the growth of the available computing power. As the number of cores in top computing facilities pushes into the millions, increased average frequency of hardware and software failures forces users to review their algorithms and systems in order to protect simulations from breakdown. This report surveys hardware, application-level and algorithm-level resilience approaches of particular relevance to time-critical numerical weather and climate prediction systems. A selection of applicable existing strategies is analysed, featuring interpolation-restart and compressed checkpointing for the numerical schemes, in-memory checkpointing, user-level failure mitigation and backup-based methods for the systems. Numerical examples showcase the performance of the techniques in addressing faults, with particular emphasis on iterative solvers for linear systems, a staple of atmospheric fluid flow solvers. The potential impact of these strategies is discussed in relation to current development of numerical weather prediction algorithms and systems towards the exascale. Trade-offs between performance, efficiency and effectiveness of resiliency strategies are analysed and some recommendations outlined for future developments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanical separations of corn stover anatomical fractions in an integrated feedstock preprocessing system: An experimental and data-driven modeling study

High variabilities of material attributes in lignocellulosic biomass present risks for biofuel and biochemical productions and must be mitigated via preprocessing. Since almost no mechanical device is originally designed for processing biomass, how to operate existing apparatuses with efficient performance has not been investigated extensively. This work presents a study on an integrated screening and air classification to separate cobs and stalks from husks and leaves in corn stover. Prototype machine learning models were developed to assess the feasibility of predicting the process outcome based on the measurable parameters. The models trained upon limited experimental data rendered decent predictive accuracy of yield and purity. The experimental data and modeling results collectively suggest decreasing throughput leads to a higher purity. To the contrary, if throughput increases, a lower purity is likely. A possible trade-off between yield and purity of the separated streams indicates the need for optimal combinations of feedstock size, moisture, and throughput to achieve optimized separations. The results of this study also suggest the need to further improve model predictability by developing more accurate formulations for physics governing the integrated unit operations. To accomplish this, additional experimental data needs to be generated for model training.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Analysis via CFD Simulation on the Impact of Graphite Anode Morphologies on the Discharge of a Lithium-Ion Battery

The morphology of electrode materials plays a crucial role in determining the performance of lithium-ion batteries. Traditional computational models often simplify graphite flakes as uniformly sized spheres, which limits their predictive accuracy. In this study, we present a computational workflow that overcomes these limitations by incorporating a more realistic representation of graphite morphologies. This workflow is designed to be flexible and reproducible, enabling efficient evaluation of electrochemical performance across diverse material structures. By exploring different graphite morphologies, our approach accelerates the optimization of material preparation techniques and processing conditions. Our findings reveal that incorporating greater morphological complexity leads to significant deviations from classical model predictions. Instead, our refined model offers a more accurate representation of battery discharge behavior, closely aligning with experimental data. This improvement underscores the importance of detailed morphological descriptions in advancing battery design and performance assessments. To promote accessibility and reproducibility, we provide the developed code for seamless integration with the COMSOL API, allowing researchers to implement and adapt it easily. This computational framework serves as a valuable tool for investigating the impact of graphite morphology on battery performance, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and experimental validation to enhance lithium-ion battery technology.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-time elemental analysis of liquids for process monitoring using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy with a liquid wheel sampling approach

This article presents an engineered sampling system that used a rotating wheel to form a thin liquid layer, permitting the use of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for in situ, real-time elemental impurity quantification during liquid processing. The sampling approach was demonstrated on eight elements from across the periodic table (Na, Al, K, Ca, Ti, Sr, Mo, and Yb). Univariate and multivariate calibrations were presented for each element. The average value for percent root mean square errors of cross-validation for the multivariate models was 3.64%, highlighting the method's strong prediction accuracy. Additionally, the limits of detection for each analyte were estimated from their univariate models: Na = 0.0532, Al = 18.5, K = 0.105, Ca = 0.273, Ti = 67.7, Sr = 0.640, Mo = 22.4, and Yb = 22.9 μg mL –1 . Finally, a test in which multivariate models were used to monitor a liquid system for 80 min was performed to investigate the real-time monitoring capabilities of this liquid LIBS sampling approach. Rigorous measurements were performed to effectively predict the absence and concentrations of multiple analytes as they were spiked and diluted. This demonstration showed the feasibility of using LIBS for real-time liquid quantification models with estimated precision ≤ 8.1%. Finally, the limitations of this approach and potential future improvements are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring and prediction of porosity in laser powder bed fusion using physics-informed meltpool signatures and machine learning

In this work we accomplished the monitoring and prediction of porosity in laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) additive manufacturing process. This objective was realized by extracting physics-informed meltpool signatures from an in-situ dual-wavelength imaging pyrometer, and subsequently, analyzing these signatures via computationally tractable machine learning approaches. Porosity in LPBF occurs despite extensive optimization of processing conditions due to stochastic causes. Hence, it is essential to continually monitor the process with in-situ sensors for detecting and mitigating incipient pore formation. In this work a tall cuboid-shaped part (10 mm × 10 mm × 137 mm, material ATI 718Plus) was built with controlled porosity by varying laser power and scanning speed. This test caused various types of porosity, such as lack-of-fusion and keyhole formation, with varying degrees of severity in the part. The meltpool was continuously monitored using a dual-wavelength imaging pyrometer installed in the machine. Physically intuitive process signatures, such as meltpool length, temperature distribution, and ejecta (spatter) characteristics, were extracted from the meltpool images. Subsequently, relatively simple machine learning models, e.g., K-Nearest Neighbors, were trained to predict both the severity and type of porosity as a function of these physics-informed meltpool signatures. These models resulted in a prediction accuracy exceeding 95% (statistical F1-score). The same analysis was carried out with a complex, black-box deep learning convolutional neural network which directly used the meltpool images instead of physics-informed features. The convolutional neural network produced a comparable F1-score in the range of 89–97%. Finally, these results demonstrate that using pragmatic, physics-informed meltpool signatures within a simple machine learning model is as effective for flaw prediction in LPBF as using a complex and computationally demanding black-box deep learning model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Highly transferable atomistic machine-learning potentials from curated and compact datasets across the periodic table

Machine learning atomistic potentials trained using density functional theory (DFT) datasets allow for the modeling of complex material properties with near-DFT accuracy while imposing a fraction of its computational cost. The curation of the DFT datasets can be extensive in size and time-consuming to train and refine. In this study, we focus on addressing these barriers by developing minimalistic and flexible datasets for many elements in the periodic table regardless of their mass, electronic configuration, and ground state lattice. These DFT datasets have on average, ~4000 different structures and 27 atoms per structure, which we found sufficient to maintain the predictive accuracy of DFT properties and notably with high transferability. We envision these highly curated training sets as starting points for the community to expand, modify, or use with other machine learning atomistic potential models, whatever may suit individual needs, further accelerating the utilization of machine learning as a tool for material design and discovery.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation of Alkali-Silica Reaction in Concrete

Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) causes concrete degradation, leading to cracking, rebar corrosion, and reduced structural integrity, which raises safety concerns. Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) effectively assesses concrete properties and monitors ASR progression. However, its deployment and analysis require specialized expertise and subjective interpretation. As computational power increases, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly being used to automate NDE data analysis across various industries for AI-assisted automation. Regulatory agencies are adapting to this technological shift, prompting a need to evaluate current ML technologies’ capabilities and limitations in assessing concrete material properties and damage. This report presents a comparative analysis of four ML regression models for predicting concrete material damage induced by ASR expansion using long-term ultrasonic data monitoring. The models investigated include linear regression (LR), support vector regression (SVR), shallow neural networks (NN), and deep neural networks (DNN). LR, SVR, and shallow NN models use features extracted from ultrasonic signals, whereas the DNN model processes time-domain ultrasonic signals and frequency spectra directly. The study systematically compared the models’ performance from various perspectives, including model input, prediction performance, and generalization ability. The findings indicate significant variability in model performance, with some ML algorithms achieving very high or very low prediction accuracy depending on the preprocessing and feature engineering (extraction and selection) applied. Key insights include the observation that shallow ML models (LR, SVR, and shallow NNs) require meticulous preprocessing and feature extraction to achieve high accuracy. In contrast, the DNN model, although it bypasses the need for feature engineering, necessitates extensive preprocessing to mitigate noise and computational demands. The SVR model emerged as the top performer among the shallow models, and the DNN model exhibited superior performance on specific datasets but struggled with generalization across specimens from different batches. Additionally, the SVR model is sensitive to temperature variations, whereas the DNN model is robust in this regard. Using recurrent neural networks is recommended for future ASR expansion prediction studies. Recurrent neural networks’ inherent ability to capture temporal dependencies and long-term patterns makes them well suited for analyzing sequential ultrasonic monitoring data. Overall, the results and conclusions of this study could provide insights into the capabilities and effectiveness of ML when applied to ultrasonic NDE data and help identify best practices for using ML for ultrasonic NDE of concrete material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 2. Path-dependent Travel-time Uncertainty

Abstract The regional seismic travel time (RSTT) model and software were developed to improve travel-time prediction accuracy by accounting for three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure. Travel-time uncertainty estimates are used in the process of associating seismic phases to events and to accurately calculate location uncertainty bounds (i.e. event location error ellipses). We improve on the current distance-dependent uncertainty parameterization for RSTT using a random effects model to estimate slowness (inverse velocity) uncertainty as a mean squared error for each model parameter. The random effects model separates the error between observed slowness and model predicted slowness into bias and random components. The path-specific travel-time uncertainty is calculated by integrating these mean squared errors along a seismic-phase ray path. We demonstrate that event location error ellipses computed for a 90% coverage ellipse metric (used by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (IDC)), and using the path-specific travel-time uncertainty approach, are more representative (median 82.5% ellipse percentage) of true location error than error ellipses computed using distance-dependent travel-time uncertainties (median 70.1%). We also demonstrate measurable improvement in location uncertainties using the RSTT method compared to the current station correction approach used at the IDC (median 74.3% coverage ellipse).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ultra-fast interpretable machine-learning potentials

Abstract All-atom dynamics simulations are an indispensable quantitative tool in physics, chemistry, and materials science, but large systems and long simulation times remain challenging due to the trade-off between computational efficiency and predictive accuracy. To address this challenge, we combine effective two- and three-body potentials in a cubic B-spline basis with regularized linear regression to obtain machine-learning potentials that are physically interpretable, sufficiently accurate for applications, as fast as the fastest traditional empirical potentials, and two to four orders of magnitude faster than state-of-the-art machine-learning potentials. For data from empirical potentials, we demonstrate the exact retrieval of the potential. For data from density functional theory, the predicted energies, forces, and derived properties, including phonon spectra, elastic constants, and melting points, closely match those of the reference method. The introduced potentials might contribute towards accurate all-atom dynamics simulations of large atomistic systems over long-time scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing magnetized plasmas with dynamic mode decomposition

Accurate and efficient plasma models are essential to understand and control experimental devices. Existing magnetohydrodynamic or kinetic models are nonlinear and computationally intensive and can be difficult to interpret, while often only approximating the true dynamics. In this work, data-driven techniques recently developed in the field of fluid dynamics are leveraged to develop interpretable reduced-order models of plasmas that strike a balance between accuracy and efficiency. In particular, dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is used to extract spatio-temporal magnetic coherent structures from the experimental and simulation datasets of the helicity injected torus with steady inductive (HIT-SI) experiment. Three-dimensional magnetic surface probes from the HIT-SI experiment are analyzed, along with companion simulations with synthetic internal magnetic probes. A number of leading variants of the DMD algorithm are compared, including the sparsity-promoting and optimized DMD. Optimized DMD results in the highest overall prediction accuracy, while sparsity-promoting DMD yields physically interpretable models that avoid overfitting. These DMD algorithms uncover several coherent magnetic modes that provide new physical insights into the inner plasma structure. These modes were subsequently used to discover a previously unobserved three-dimensional structure in the simulation, rotating at the second injector harmonic. Finally, using data from probes at experimentally accessible locations, DMD identifies a resistive kink mode, a ubiquitous instability seen in magnetized plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting defects in laser powder bed fusion using in-situ thermal imaging data and machine learning

Variation in the local thermal history during the Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) process in Additive Manufacturing (AM) can cause micropore defects, which add to the uncertainty of the mechanical properties (e.g., fatigue life, tensile strength) of the built materials. In-situ sensing has been proposed for monitoring the AM process to minimize defects, but successful minimization requires establishing a quantitative relationship between the sensing data and the porosity, which is particularly challenging with a large number of variables (e.g., laser speed, power, scan path, powder property). Physics-based modeling can simulate such an in-situ sensing-porosity relationship, but it is computationally costly. In this work, we develop Machine Learning (ML) models that can use in-situ thermographic data to predict the micropore of LPBF stainless steel materials. This work considers two identified key features from the thermal histories: the time above the apparent melting threshold ($\tau$) and the maximum radiance ( T max ). These features are computed, stored for each voxel in the built material, and then used as inputs. The binary state of each voxel, either defective or normal, is the output. Different ML models are trained and tested for the binary classification task. In addition to using the thermal features of each voxel to predict its own state, the thermal features of neighboring voxels are also included as inputs. This is shown to improve the prediction accuracy, which is consistent with thermal transport physics around each voxel contributing to its final state. Among the models trained, the F1 scores on test sets reach above 0.96 for Random Forests. Feature importance analysis based on the ML models shows that T max is more important to the voxel state than $\tau$ . The analysis also finds that the thermal history of the voxels above the present voxel is more influential than those beneath it. Our study significantly extends the capability of using in-situ thermographic data to predict porosity in LPBF materials. Finally, since ML models are fast, they may play integral roles in the optimization and control of such AM technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗