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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law for Their Effects on Nuclear Cost Data

Decarbonizing to meet aggressive climate change mitigation targets requires energy transition within all sectors. In the industrial sector, emissions will need to decrease by 65–90% by 2050 to avert global warming greater than 1.5°C (IPCC 2022). The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), and Defense Production Act (DPA) have clean energy requirements and provide financial incentives to accelerate the use of clean energy technologies in the industrial sector. It is important to note that IRA is the most extensive action ever taken by Congress and the U.S. government to combat climate change (US CBO 2021, 2022). The energy system provisions comprise most of the estimated climate and energy support. A better understanding of those provisions in the above mentioned acts and laws is crucial to assessing their impact on the equivalent energy costs to the power plant owners (impact on net revenue in $/MWh) across different energy technologies, market deployment potential offered to different energy technologies applications, and energy system research modeling. The purpose of the report is to shed light on IRA and BIL provisions with particular attention to impacts on the nuclear industry. The report also seeks to understand potential equivalent energy cost savings for nuclear energy technologies from other laws and programs in conjunction with IRA, BIL, loan program guarantees, and DPA. The report reviews recent legislation on energy policy and translates that policy to impacts on equivalent nuclear costs for the purpose of modeling policy in energy scenarios.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feasibility of critical infrastructure protection using network functions for programmable and decoupled ICS policy enforcement over WAN

Industrial control systems (ICS) represent a major component of our critical infrastructure. With the increasing need for more control and monitoring of such systems, ICS have seen an increase in connectivity to wide area networks (WAN) exposing aging equipment to rapidly evolving cybersecurity threats. Furthermore, the ICS data requires a reliability measure from the networks for critical functions for infrastructure monitoring and control. Especially when remote plant sites are involved such as pipelines, energy distribution networks, and transportation, WAN transport impairments most often provide a best effort delivery with no strict reliability guarantees. Network functions can provide a vendor agnostic, programmable critical infrastructure protection with a single maintenance, policy determination, and reliability assurance surface. A network function (NF) can be utilized for policy enforcement over the communication between remote entities and the main control office. This paper presents the research on transparent integration with existing ICS without disrupting communications, resulting in minimal downtime while decoupling the fast paced evolution of defensive security measures from the upgrade cycle of expensive long term hardware. We report our measurements on the resource requirements and overhead in the network for successful NF insertion under a wide variety of network impairments (network packet delay, reordering, and loss). Our paired NF implementation provides a policy enforcement platform extensible to cover myriad cybersecurity-related communication goals, including packet signing for verification, encryption for data privacy, packet filtering and data diode operation (i.e. protecting against eavesdropping, packet injection, and denial-of-service). Furthermore, bundling communication specifications into packet flows allows for tunability in applying policies as coarse- or fine-grained as the needs of the operator. We report on network function resource requirements in the form of required queue depth and network utilization overhead to inform the decision making against hardware cost constraints.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Internship Presentation: Integrating Safety and Cybersecurity: Security-by-Design with SOWT Analysis for Reactor Testing

This study covers leveraging reactor testing facilities that are primarily designed with a focus on safety to enhance cybersecurity testing. By incorporating reactor security-by-design with reactor safety-by-design principles and adopting defense-in-depth strategies that emphasize both safety and security, the research evaluates applicable cyber tools, models, and solutions. This includes simulating specific cyber-attack scenarios using reactor simulators and performing SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis to improve the cybersecurity of reactor systems.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) for System-Level Design Analysis

Cybersecurity is a persistent concern to the safety and security of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), but has lacked data-driven, evidence-based research. Rigorous cybersecurity analysis is critical for the licensing of advanced reactors using a performance-based approach. One tool that enables cybersecurity analysis is modeling and simulation. The nuclear industry makes extensive use of modeling and simulation throughout the decision process but lacks a method to incorporate cybersecurity analysis with existing models. To meet this need, the Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) was developed. ARCADE is a suite of publicly available tools that can be used to develop emulations of industrial control system devices and networks and integrate those emulations with physics simulators. This integration of cyber emulations and physics models enables rigorous cyber-physical analysis of cyber-attacks on NPP systems. This report provides an overview of key considerations for using ARCADE with existing physics models and demonstrates ARCADE’s capabilities for cybersecurity analysis. Using a model of the Small Modular Advanced High Temperature Reactor (SmAHTR), ARCADE was able to determine the sensitivity of the primary heat exchangers (PHX) to coordinated cyber-attacks. The analysis determined that while the PHX’s failures cause disruption to the reactor, they did not cause any safety limits to be exceeded because of the plant design, including passive safety features. Further development of ARCADE will enable rigorous, repeatable, and automated cyber-physical analysis of advanced reactor control systems. These efforts will also help reduce regulatory uncertainty by presenting similar types of cybersecurity analyses in a common format, driving standard approaches and reporting.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1995

Major weapon system environmental life-cycle cost estimating for Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C3P2)

The Titan 4 Space Launch Vehicle Program is one of many major weapon system programs that have modified acquisition plans and operational procedures to meet new, stringent environmental rules and regulations. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Defense (DOD) mandate to reduce the use of ozone depleting chemicals (ODC's) is just one of the regulatory changes that has affected the program. In the last few years, public environmental awareness, coupled with stricter environmental regulations, has created the need for DOD to produce environmental life-cycle cost estimates (ELCCE) for every major weapon system acquisition program. The environmental impact of the weapon system must be assessed and budgeted, considering all costs, from cradle to grave. The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) has proposed that organizations consider Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C(sup 3)P(sup 2)) issues associated with each acquisition program to assess life-cycle impacts and costs. The Air Force selected the Titan 4 system as the pilot program for estimating life-cycle environmental costs. The estimating task required participants to develop an ELCCE methodology, collect data to test the methodology and produce a credible cost estimate within the DOD C(sup 3)P(sup 2) definition. The estimating methodology included using the Program Office weapon system description and work breakdown structure together with operational site and manufacturing plant visits to identify environmental cost drivers. The results of the Titan IV ELCCE process are discussed and expanded to demonstrate how they can be applied to satisfy any life-cycle environmental cost estimating requirement.

Hammond, Wesley↗
DOE OSTI2020

The foxtail millet ( Setaria italica ) terpene synthase gene family

Terpenoid metabolism plays vital roles in stress defense and the environmental adaptation of monocot crops. Here, we describe the identification of the terpene synthase (TPS) gene family of the panicoid food and bioenergy model crop foxtail millet (Setaria italica). The diploid S. italica genome contains 32 TPS genes, 17 of which were biochemically characterized in this study. Unlike other thus far investigated grasses, S. italica contains TPSs producing all three ent-, (+)- and syn-copalyl pyrophosphate stereoisomers that naturally occur as central building blocks in the biosynthesis of distinct monocot diterpenoids. Conversion of these intermediates by the promiscuous TPS SiTPS8 yielded different diterpenoid scaffolds. Additionally, a cytochrome P450 monooxygenase (CYP99A17), which genomically clustered with SiTPS8, catalyzes the C19 hydroxylation of SiTPS8 products to generate the corresponding diterpene alcohols. The presence of syntenic orthologs to about 19% of the S. italica TPSs in related grasses supports a common ancestry of selected pathway branches. Among the identified enzyme products, abietadien-19-ol, syn-pimara-7,15-dien-19-ol and germacrene-D-4-ol were detectable in planta, and gene expression analysis of the biosynthetic TPSs showed distinct and, albeit moderately, inducible expression patterns in response to biotic and abiotic stress. In vitro growth-inhibiting activity of abietadien-19-ol and syn-pimara-7,15-dien-19-ol against Fusarium verticillioides and Fusarium subglutinans may indicate pathogen defensive functions, whereas the low antifungal efficacy of tested sesquiterpenoids supports other bioactivities. Together, these findings expand the known chemical space of monocot terpenoid metabolism to enable further investigations of terpenoid-mediated stress resilience in these agriculturally important species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Malcolm Deployment Guide for Solar Power Generation Plants

This guide provides detailed instructions for deploying Malcolm in Solar Power Generation systems. It covers the deployment process, from understanding the network architecture of these systems to configuring network switches and Switched Port Analyzer (SPAN) ports or mirror ports or TAPs. The guide also includes best practices for deploying Hedgehog sensors, another critical component in these systems. Following this guide, users can enhance network visibility, improve their system’s security, and effectively troubleshoot common issues.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Elucidating Anthracnose Resistance Mechanisms in Sorghum—A Review

Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) is the fifth most cultivated cereal crop in the world, traditionally providing food, feed, and fodder, but more recently also fermentable sugars for the production of renewable fuels and chemicals. The hemibiotrophic fungal pathogen Colletotrichum sublineola, the causal agent of anthracnose disease in sorghum, is prevalent in the warm and humid climates where much of the sorghum is cultivated and poses a serious threat to sorghum production. The use of anthracnose-resistant sorghum germplasm is the most environmentally and economically sustainable way to protect sorghum against this pathogen. Even though multiple anthracnose resistance loci have been mapped in diverse sorghum germplasm in recent years, the diversity in C. sublineola pathotypes at the local and regional levels means that these resistance genes are not equally effective in different areas of cultivation. This review summarizes the genetic and cytological data underlying sorghum’s defense response and describes recent developments that will enable a better understanding of the interactions between sorghum and C. sublineola at the molecular level. This includes releases of the sorghum genome and the draft genome of C. sublineola, the use of next-generation sequencing technologies to identify gene expression networks activated in response to infection, and improvements in methodologies to validate resistance genes, notably virus-induced and transgenic gene silencing approaches.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Safety System Cybersecurity Panel Summary

The panel discussion titled "Innovations in Advanced Cybersecurity Technologies for Safety Systems Within Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs)" took place at the American Nuclear Society (ANS) Annual Meeting in Las Vegas on Tuesday, June 18, 2024. The session was moderated by Lee Maccarone of Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and featured four experts: Benjamin Karch from Sandia National Laboratories, Ismael Garcia from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Trevor Taylor from Paragon Energy Solutions (ES), and Forrest Shriver from Sentinel Devices.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Capability Building Progression of an Insider Threat Mitigation Program at International Nuclear Power Plant

With threats to nuclear facilities continuously evolving, the development and implementation of insider threat mitigation programs is increasingly important. The Office of International Nuclear Security within the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA’s) developed the “Insider Threat Mitigation Program: Facility Implementation Handbook” to assist organizations to be better positioned to minimize the risks posed by malicious insiders. The handbook identified eight elements that contribute to the development and implementation of insider threat mitigation programs. This report outlines the development of a capability building progression of an insider threat mitigation program at international nuclear power plants. This information can be stand-alone or be accompanied by a technical exchange with subject matter experts to support development and implementation of programs with interested international partners.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Integrated Framework for Risk Assessment of Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants: Methodology Advancement and Application

This report documents activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2024 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Digital Instrumentation and Control (DI&C) Risk Assessment project. The goal of the RISA Pathway is to optimize safety margins and minimize uncertainties to achieve economic efficiencies while maintaining high levels of safety. This is accomplished by providing scientific basis to better represent safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety, and by developing new technologies that reduce operating costs. The research efforts for FY 2024 encompass methodology refinement and exploration. The efforts include: (1) The implementation of a natural language processing tool to expedite key aspects of the reliability analysis methods developed by INL; (2) advances to support intersystem CCF analysis by providing guidance for and identification of coupling mechanisms that may contribute to CCF; (3) the investigation of how generative artificial intelligence tools can aid in hazard analysis and diversity and defense in depth (i.e., D3) assessments; (4) Industry collaboration, allowing the demonstration of and INL's risk assessment tools to support risk assessment of DI&C systems at early and late stages of development; (4) a roadmap for the development of a software for each of INL's risk assessment tools; (5) The development of a theory and methodology manual for a risk quantification methodology; (6) the development of a reliability analysis for machine learning (ML)-integrated control systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Chromosome-Scale Genome Assembly of the Flax Rust Fungus Reveals the Two Unusually Large Effector Proteins, AvrM3 and AvrN

Rust fungi comprise thousands of species, many of which cause disease on important crop plants. The flax rust fungus Melampsora lini has been a model species for the genetic dissection of plant immunity since the 1940s; however, the highly fragmented and incomplete reference genome has so far hindered progress in effector gene discovery. Here, we generated a fully phased, chromosome-scale assembly of the two nuclear genomes of M. lini strain CH5, resolving an additional 320 Mbp of the sequence. The 482-Mbp dikaryotic genome is at least 79% repetitive, with a large proportion (approximately 40%) of the genome comprising young, highly similar transposable elements. The assembly resolves the known effector gene loci, some of which carry complex duplications that were collapsed in the previous assembly. Using a genetic map followed by manual correction of gene models, we identified the AvrM3 and AvrN genes, which encode unusually large fungal effector proteins and trigger defense responses when co-expressed with the corresponding resistance genes. We located the genes linked to the tetrapolar mating system on chromosomes 4 and 9, but in contrast to the cereal rusts that have one pheromone receptor gene per haplotype, in flax rust, three pheromone receptor genes were found, with two of them closely linked on one haplotype. Taken together, we show that a high-quality assembly is crucial for resolving complex gene loci, and given the increasing number of fungal effectors of large size, the commonly applied criterion for effector candidates of being small proteins needs to be reconsidered.

Melampsora↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design of Defensive Cybersecurity Architectures for High Temperature, Gas-Cooled Reactors

This report presents the design of defensive cybersecurity architectures (DCSAs) for High Temperature, Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs). A DCSA is a cybersecurity design feature that places systems into security zones in a graded approach according to the importance of the functions performed by the systems. DCSA design efforts for advanced reactors may commence as early as the system-level design phase. This design approach is consistent with the draft regulatory guide for advanced reactor cybersecurity programs (DG-5075) and enables advanced reactor designers to consider the effects of security-by-design (SeBD) features on their DCSAs. Integration of DCSA design and other cybersecurity activities with the traditional design process as part of a SeBD framework may enable advanced reactor designers to improve the security posture of their plants while reducing implementation and operating costs. This report provides a DCSA template for an exemplar HTGR and describes a DCSA design process using event tree analysis so that the template may be optimized for a given HTGR design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Issue Resolution During the Development of the Performance Assessment for the Savannah River Site Saltstone Disposal Facility - 20125

In 2019, Savannah River Remediation developed a revision to the performance assessment (PA) on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Operations Office (SR) for the near-surface disposal of low-level waste at the Savannah River Site (SRS) Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). Soluble waste from SRS Tank Farms undergoes salt processing to remove cesium and other high-activity constituents. The low-activity decontaminated salt solution (DSS) is then immobilized by mixing it into a cementitious waste form known as saltstone. After mixing, the saltstone is poured into leak-tight concrete vaults, known as saltstone disposal units (SDUs), where the waste form cures. By the time of facility closure, the SDF is expected to consist of 15 SDUs with a combined capacity of 1.06 E+09 L (280 Mgal) of cured saltstone. The facility operates under a Disposal Authorization Statement from DOE and a permit from the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC). Since the start of operations in 1990, the SDF has received almost 6.7 E+07 L (18 Mgal) of DSS, resulting in the safe disposal of 2.7 E+16 Bq (7.3 E+05 Ci) of activity. Due to the radioactive decay of short-lived contaminants, the total remaining activity in the disposed waste is estimated to be approximately 1.4 E+16 Bq (3.9 E+05 Ci), as of September 2018. The Disposal Authorization Statement requires a demonstration that the system of engineered and natural features of the disposal facility will limit releases from the facility and be protective of human health and the environment for at least the next 1,000 years. The long-term performance of the facility was evaluated under the requirements of the DoE's Radioactive Waste Management Manual (US DOE Manual 435.1-1). Simulations were performed to demonstrate that the disposal facility would meet performance objectives specified in the manual. The evaluation was based on numerical models that simulate the releases of contaminants from the saltstone waste form. Contaminants were transported through groundwater and air pathways to points of assessment to evaluate compliance (i.e., 100 m from the SDUs). In addition, the potential consequences of an inadvertent human intrusion (IHI) were also evaluated. A number of issues were overcome during the development of these simulations. These issues were identified as part of internal technical reviews. Simulations are developed by people and people make mistakes, so the internal technical review process is a vital step in PA development. Specific examples of resolved issues include a unit-conversion error, an inappropriate definition for a model boundary condition, a model time-stepping issue, and an error in the calculation for the buildup of contaminants in soil. Actions taken to address these issues resulted in an improved product with a better supported technical basis and more defensible results. The identification and correction of these issues are discussed. By understanding these issues, model developers and technical reviewers working on PAs in the future may avoid repeating these types of mistakes. Transparency with respect to these mistakes builds trust between waste management sites, regulators, and stakeholders. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Panel Session 55: US DOE Savannah River Operations Office: Liquid Waste Progress

This panel provided an overview of the SRS HLW Liquid Waste Program (history, challenges, opportunities, and future) including discussions of the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF), Tank Closures, Actinide Removal Process/Modular Caustic Side Solvent Extraction Unit, Tank Closure Cesium Removal, and the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF). Panelists with presentations: SRS Liquid Waste Program (James Folk); SRS Liquid Waste Progress (Mark Schmitz); Salt Waste Processing Facility (Frank Sheppard)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Production of Cf-252 and other transplutonium isotopes at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

In 1957 Glenn T. Seaborg conceived and advocated for the construction of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and the Transuranium Processing Plant (since then renamed the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center, or REDC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. There, heavily shielded hot cells, glove boxes, and laboratories allow recovery of transuranium elements produced in substantial quantities. Seaborg’s vision of HFIR and REDC producing milligram quantities of berkelium, californium, and einsteinium has been fulfilled beginning in 1966 through May 2019 with 78 production campaigns yielding a cumulative totals of 1.2 g of 249 Bk, 10.2 g of 252 Cf, 39 mg of 253 Es, and 15 pg of 257 Fm. Notably, 252 Cf is a neutron source used in many industrial applications including oil exploration; process control systems for the cement industry, coal analysis, and power production; sources to start nuclear reactors and perform nondestructive materials analyses; homeland security and national defense detection devices; and medical research. Isotopes made available through transplutonium production at HFIR/REDC have enabled scientists to study the nuclear properties and reactions, chemical properties, optical properties, and solid-state properties of transplutonium elements. Long-lived isotopes have served as targets in heavy ion accelerators to produce heavier elements leading to the discovery of 104 Rf, 105 Db, 106 Sg, 113 Nh, 114 Fl, 115 Mc, 116 Lv, 117 Ts, and 118 Og. This paper reviews the evolution of the processing flowsheets to produce, separate, and purify transplutonium isotopes, which have evolved over 50 years of operation at HFIR and REDC, and summarizes directions of future work to improve the efficiency of the production operations.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Test of High Temperature Surface Acoustic Wave Gas Sensors

The demand for sensors in hostile environments, such as power plant environments, aerospace environments, oil and gas extraction, and high-temperature metallurgy environments, has risen over the past decades in a continuous attempt to increase process control, improve energy and process efficiency in production, reduce operational and maintenance costs, increase safety, and perform condition-based maintenance in equipment and structures operating in high-temperature harsh-environment conditions. The increased reliability, improved performance, and development of new sensors and networks with a multitude of components, especially wireless networks, are the target for operation in harsh environments. Gas sensors, in particular H2 sensors, operating above 200 C are required in the instrumentation, process control and general safety of a number of industries including coal, natural gas, and nuclear power generation facilities, the aerospace and automotive industries, metallurgical production and defense-related applications. The surface acoustic wave (SAW) platform is a particularly promising option for high-temperature, harsh-environment gas sensing applications since the platform exhibits advantages, such as battery-free and wireless operation, small size, possibility for scale production using well-developed technologies from the semiconductor industry, and low cost of installation and operation. In this work, one-port SAW resonators (SAWRs) operating along five different orientations on a commercially available langasite (LGS) wafer employing Pt-Al2O3 electrodes and reflectors were designed, fabricated, and used as high-temperature H2 sensors. Two of the selected orientations were predicted and confirmed to have temperature-compensated operation above 150 C. A gas sensor test setup was developed, capable of gas cycling between N2, O2 and N2/H2 mixtures under extended high-temperature periods (up to 650 C for over 20 hours). Thin film Pt-Al2O3 was used as the electrode material for the transducers and reflectors capable of high-temperature operation, and also as H2 sensing film. In addition, yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) thin films with Pt decoration were tested as sensing films aimed to enhance the SAWR sensor response to H2. The SAW devices were monitored in excess of 1700 hours in real-time during gas cycling sequences up to 600 C, leading to the following findings: i) the Pt-Al2O3 electrodes performed better for H2 sensing than the Pt-decorated YSZ sensing film, showing as much as 50% higher frequency variation response in the 200 C to 400 C range; ii) different crystallographic orientations operating on the same LGS wafer experienced different responses to H2 exposures up to 500 C; iii) the surface oxidation state of the SAWR sensors was shown to have an important impact on subsequent H2 exposure responses. In addition, a sensor system employing two LGS SAWRs, aligned along two different orientations, has been developed to simultaneously determine H2 presence and temperature. Finally, wireless interrogation of a SAWR sensor was successful within the gas cycling test fixture, and successful wireless H2 detection was achieved above 400 C.

Ayes Moncada, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sources of Propane Consumed in California

Project Scope: The objective of this study is to specify the sources of propane consumed in California. It answers the questions, where does the propane used in California come from and how was it produced? The results of this study provide comprehensive, transparent, and verifiable estimates, based on the 2018 market. The information provided in this report is suitable for use to assess the life cycle carbon intensity of propane used as a transportation fuel in California. As the 2009 Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) aims to reduce California’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other smog-forming and toxic air pollutants, the appropriate designation of carbon intensity for propane as a transportation fuel is important for evaluating propane’s potential to contribute to GHG goals and understandings in the context of various actions. This study focuses on estimating the shares of total propane consumed in the state of California produced from petroleum refineries, natural gas plants, and bituminous sands sources inside California and elsewhere. Results: An estimated 590 million gallons of propane were consumed in California in 2018, of which, 59.5% originated from refinery production and 40.5% originated from natural gas plants. The majority of this was sourced from refinery production in California, 334 million gallons. Most of the propane imported to California for consumption was sourced from natural gas plants, 113 million gallons, with over half of the imported volume sourced from Canada. The volume sourced from bituminous sand upgrader and fractionator operations was negligible. Details from this analysis are presented in the table below which provides an overview of the propane flows estimated in this study by region and production method. The shares and volumes presented here represent a snapshot for 2018. A significant increase in propane demand, such as could be caused by increased use of propane as a transportation fuel in the state, would affect California’s propane production, imports, and exports. The method and data sources used for the estimates provided in this report also provide the framework which could be used for future updates. Key Method Considerations: The values presented here are based on a two-step approach where the first step was to determine the flows of propane into and out of California from different regions and the second step was to estimate the propane production methods in each region. A volume balance approach is used as the primary method for tracking the volume of propane in and out of California as propane production and import volumes are available by Petroleum Administration of Defense District (PADD) from EIA and neither inter-PADD propane transfers nor state-specific non-prime supplier consumption are available from a public data source. The volume balance performed for this study covered PADD 5 (the West Coast), which includes Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. The volume balance used all available public datasets to determine propane production, imports, exports, and consumption. Volumes unaccounted for by these datasets were estimated using the resulting volume balance by assuming market equilibrium. Consumption within each state in PADD 5 was estimated based on known import, export, and production volumes and this amount was used to develop the volume balance. EIA only tracks consumption at the state level by prime supplier sales. The volume balance approach provides the basis to correct for additional propane consumed in-states where propane is transferred to California. To determine the California propane sources and trade in 2018. volume of propane consumed in California, the volume balance approach is again used where it was estimated all imported volumes not specifically flagged for re-export were consumed, and the remaining consumption was produced in-state. The California Energy Commission (CEC) provided the total volume of propane imported and exported from California in 2018; this volume data set along with commodity tracking from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) and the International Trade Commission (ITC) which tracks port of entry and final destination was used to determine where propane originated from and where it was ultimately consumed. For example, the CER tracks propane leaving Canada and entering each state within the U.S. Imported propane from Canada to California – marked for California – is assumed to be consumed in California. When no further data were available, import volumes were assumed to be consumed in California without pass-through (i.e., no propane imported to California was directly sold and exported). In most cases, the production method for each propane source region was applied to the volume of propane transferred to California. In other words, the shares of propane sourced from natural gas and refineries for each production region was assigned to California imports based on their contribution to the total volume flows into California to determine the production method for propane consumed in-state. For volumes imported into California from PADD 4, Washington State, Canada, and the rest of the world (Argentina, Chile, Norway, Peru, South Korea, and Trinidad and Tobago), the volumes sourced from petroleum refineries and natural gas plants reflect the either production ratio for the region or, in cases where the sources specific to the amounts exported to California could be determined, the sources specific to the volumes transferred to California.

03 NATURAL GAS↗