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DOE OSTI2018

Performance Assessment of a Generic Nuclear Waste Repository in Shale - 18392

A performance assessment (PA) is an important component of a comprehensive safety analysis for a nuclear waste repository. In a PA, probabilistic simulations of the total repository system are performed, and results are evaluated against performance metrics. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses help prioritize additional research and model development. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has been developing a state of the art PA simulation software tool-kit, Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Framework, that couples increasingly higher fidelity models of subsystem processes into total system PA simulations. Over the past several years, PAs of generic repositories in three geologic media (salt, shale, and crystalline rock) have demonstrated ongoing developments in capability. The current PA of a nuclear waste repository in a generic shale formation showcases GDSA Framework, including capabilities in domain discretization (Cubit), multi-physics simulations (PFLOTRAN), uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (Dakota), and visualization (Paraview). The generic shale reference case considers the disposal of 22,000 metric tons heavy metal of commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in a generic shale formation. PA simulations account for the thermal load and radionuclide inventory of the waste form, components of the engineered barrier system including waste package and buffer, and components of the natural barrier system including the host rock shale and underlying and overlying stratigraphic units. Two repository layouts are considered, one for emplacement of waste packages containing 12 pressurized water reactor (PWR) assemblies, and one for 4-PWR waste package emplacement. Model domains are half-symmetry and contain between 7 and 22 million grid cells. Grid refinement captures the detail of individual waste packages, emplacement drifts, access drifts, and shafts. Simulations are run in a high-performance computing (HPC) environment on 512 or 2048 processes. The governing equations describing coupled heat and fluid flow and reactive transport are solved with PFLOTRAN, an open-source, massively parallel multiphase flow and reactive transport code. Additional simulated processes include waste package degradation; waste form dissolution; radioactive decay and ingrowth in aqueous, solid, and adsorbed phases; and a simple biosphere based on a pumping well. Simulations are run to 106 y; dose and radionuclide concentrations are observed within aquifers at a point approximately 5 km downgradient of the repository. Dakota is used to sample likely ranges of input parameters including waste form and waste package degradation rates and properties of engineered and natural materials to quantify uncertainty in predicted concentrations and sensitivity to input parameters. Given the assumptions of the reference case, results of 12-PWR and 4-PWR simulations are very similar. Dose at the pumping well 5-km downgradient of the repository does not exceed 10-9 Sv/y. I-129 is the largest contributor to dose. The dose due to Cl-36, the next largest contributor, is orders of magnitude smaller. At the pumping well, the concentration of I-129 5-km downgradient does not exceed 10-14 mol/L. Rank correlation coefficients indicate that the maximum concentration of I-129 within the aquifer is sensitive to shale (repository host rock) porosity and aquifer permeability. These results affirm that HPC-capable codes can be used to simulate important multi-physics couplings directly in a total system performance assessment of a geologic repository, and can be used in prioritization of future research and model development. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

OC6 Phase Ia Definition Document: Validation of Nonlinear Hydrodynamic Loading on the DeepCwind Semisubmersible

The objective of OC6 Phase I is to investigate the persistent under-prediction (about 20% on average) of the structural loads in the OC5-DeepCwind floating semisubmersible wind system, as observed within the previous OC5 Phase II project. The OC5 results indicate that much of this under-prediction originates from the low-frequency response of the system at the surge/pitch natural frequencies, resulting from nonlinear hydrodynamic loading and/or overprediction of hydrodynamic damping. This work package therefore focuses on better understanding this low-frequency response behavior, the applicability of computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) models and engineering-level hydrodynamic models for predicting the nonlinear hydrodynamic loading, and the level of uncertainty in the measured response characteristics. To address these objectives, two experimental campaigns were developed and performed in 2017 and 2018 by a sub-group of the OC5 project: Floating test campaign: A simplified OC5-DeepCwind semisubmersible model (no turbine, rigid tower) was moored to three taut-spring lines and subjected to motion decay and wave tests (regular and irregular waves), during which motion amplitudes of the model were measured (see Figure 1a). The purpose of this test campaign was to examine the repeatability of the low-frequency response of the system to wave excitation and determine the level of uncertainty in the response behavior.Constrained test campaign: The same model, but without the tower present, was fixed to a carriage and subjected to towing, forced oscillation and wave tests (regular and irregular waves), during which forces exerted upon the model were measured (see Figure 1b). The purpose of this test campaign was to examine the hydrodynamic loading contributions by separating the wave excitation and radiation forces. Both model test campaigns were performed in the concept basin of the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands (MARIN) in Wageningen, the Netherlands and the first test was within the framework of the MARINET2 project. Both experimental campaigns were examined within Phase Ia of the OC6 project. The purpose of this report is to supply the needed information to participants of the OC6 project to build and simulate the experimental campaigns.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1986

Automotive Stirling engine development program

The major accomplishments were the completion of the Basic Stirling Engine (BSE) and the Stirling Engine System (SES) designs on schedule, the approval and acceptance of those designs by NASA, and the initiation of manufacture of BSE components. The performance predictions indicate the Mod II engine design will meet or exceed the original program goals of 30% improvement in fuel economy over a conventional Internal Combustion (IC) powered vehicle, while providing acceptable emissions. This was accomplished while simultaneously reducing Mod II engine weight to a level comparable with IC engine power density, and packaging the Mod II in a 1985 Celebrity with no external sheet metal changes. The projected mileage of the Mod II Celebrity for the combined urban and highway CVS cycle is 40.9 mpg which is a 32% improvement over the IC Celebrity. If additional potential improvements are verified and incorporated in the Mod II, the mileage could increase to 42.7 mpg.

Ernst, W.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Understanding how molecular hydrogen impacts the total dose and dose rate response of linear bipolar circuits

Recent Enhanced Low Dose Rate Sensitivity (ELDRS) investigations carried out by RLP Research, Arizona State University (ASU) and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) have shown significant differences in the degradation of bipolar micro-circuits with total dose in the presence of molecular hydrogen (H2) in packages. This has a significant impact on radiation hardness assurance and opens up opportunities to improve device performance. The general objectives of this program are to: 1. Determine the extent to which hydrogen contamination affects the total dose and dose rate response of linear bipolar circuits; 2. Develop a model that will enable the prediction of high dose rate (HDR) and low dose rate (LDR) response asymptotes and transition dose rates as a function of total dose, temperature, pressurized hydrogen, defect precursors, and other process dependent variables; 3. Explore the possibility of an accelerated hardness assurance method and possible hardening approaches; and 4. Extend the work to other technologies that have total dose response affected by hydrogen contamination.In this document, we xperimentally demonstrate with test transistors and circuits that hydrogen is correlated with ELDRS in bipolar linear circuits. We show that the amount of hydrogen determines: 1) the total dose response versus dose rate and 2) the transition dose rates between the high and low dose rate responses. The experimental results are supported with a steady state drift/diffusion analytical model as well as modeling calculations using COMSOL Multiphysics.

Pease, Ron↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Microstructure Prediction Capabilities for Powder Bed Fusion Stainless Steel 316

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies program aims to accelerate the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced materials and manufacturing technologies to enable reliable and economical nuclear energy. However, the characteristic process-structure-property relationships of additive manufacturing (AM) materials pose challenges for the qualification and certification of AM nuclear components. In particular, component-scale variations in microstructure and properties can be driven by localized changes in melt pool dynamics due to how process parameters interact with different part geometries. Computational modeling tools can play a crucial role in predicting and controlling this variability. This report presents final results on process modeling tools designed to predict microstructure variability in additively manufactured stainless steel 316 parts. It details the software packages and physical modeling approaches employed to simulate an AM component within an automated process modeling workflow. Results are demonstrated through comparisons between predicted microstructures and experimental measurements across various representative processing conditions. The report concludes by discussing identified challenges and future opportunities for connecting the developed simulation workflow with mechanics simulations for prediction of part performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1990

Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy of metal alloys in the space transportation system launch environment

AC impedance measurements were performed to investigate the corrosion resistance of 18 alloys under conditions similar to the Space Transportation System (STS) launch environment. The alloys were: (1) zirconium 702; (2) Hastelloy C-22, C-276, C-4, and B-2; (3) Inconel 600 and 825; (4) Ferralium 255; (5) Inco Alloy G-3; (6) 20Cb-3; (7) SS 904L, 304LN, 316L, 317L, and 304L; (8) ES 2205; and (9) Monel 400. AC impedance data were gathered for each alloy at various immersion times in 3.55 percent NaCl-0.1N HCl. Polarization resistance values were obtained for the Nyguist plots at each immersion time using the EQUIVALENT CIRCUIT software package available with the 388 electrochemical impedance software. Hastelloy C-22 showed the highest overall values for polarization resistance while Monel 400 and Inconel 600 had the lowest overall values. There was good general correlation between the corrosion performance of the alloys at the beach corrosion testing site, and the expected rate of corrosion as predicted based on the polarization resistance values obtained. The data indicate that electrochemical impedance spectroscopy can be used to predict the corrosion performance of metal alloys.

Calle, Luz↗

DOE OSTI2019

Optimization of Energy Absorbing Materials for Radioactive Packaging

Most applications of honeycomb materials are for lightweight structural members. This area of honeycomb material behavior has been extensively researched. In packaging design, honeycomb materials are used for impact energy absorption. Data concerning the deformation of stainless steel honeycomb structures is not widely available. It is being proposed to use honeycomb stainless steel as an impact energy absorber in a new radioactive material shipping package. Honeycomb materials can be useful for energy absorption applications because the geometry causes the structure to have a constant compressive force during buckling. This Finite Element Analysis is used to predict the compressive buckling strength of various honeycomb structures in order to design an energy absorber for a specific package weight and geometry. The model simulates a drop test where a 50 pound plate lands flat on a honeycomb stainless steel structure from a height of 30 feet. Some actual drop tests have already been performed on real specimens. Most of the resulting deformations of these tests include the bottom of the honeycomb structure buckling while the rest of the structure was either slightly deformed or straight. The deformation of the simulated honeycomb specimen matched the deformation from the actual drop tests. This is one verification that the model is working properly. It is evident that after about 2.5% strain the strength is a relatively linear value, and eventually flattens out to about 875 psi. The crush strength measured from the actual drop tests for the same density honeycomb was just over 800 psi. This is further verification that the model is working correctly. The results gathered from the FEA model successfully mirror the results from a real drop test. The deformation looks realistic, and the compressive strength found is consistent with the empirically measured value. Future work for this model includes modeling different density honeycomb structures which have not been tested before. This will allow for optimization of honeycomb stainless steel use for impact absorption in radioactive material shipping packages.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale and Machine Learning Modeling for Process-informed Microstructure Prediction in Additively Manufactured Materials Using MALAMUTE

Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program under the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, aims to develop and qualify additively-manufactured materials for nuclear applications. The key challenges to these efforts are the microstructural variabilities observed on the AM products and their impact on the properties and performance of the material in extreme environments. AMMT is using a combination of high-through-put experimental and modeling techniques to accelerate the qualification efforts. Conventionally, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations and testing are performed to correlate different aspects of the AM process to the final product and its performance. However, adopting a trial-and-error approach to experimentally evaluate the vast range of process parameters required to capture the microstructural variabilities is cost-prohibitive. Modeling and simulation provide a comparatively inexpensive way to understand and correlate the microstructural evolution to the processing conditions. The modeling and simulation work-packages within the AMMT program aims to use physics-based and machine learning modeling capabilities to develop a digital twin for AM that can correlate the process conditions to the final product and establish a process-structure-property-performance (PSPP) correlation for AM materials. The melting and subsequent solidification that occurs during the AM process is a complex phenomenon that requires multiscale multiphysics analysis. Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically the MOOSE Application Library for Advanced Manufacturing UTilitiEs (MALAMUTE) software, provides an ideal platform for developing the multiphysics multiscale model to explore the intricacies of the microstructural evolution during the AM processes within a single framework. Furthermore, given that such full-fidelity simulations can be computationally intensive, reduced order models are necessary to explore the PSPP space for AM materials in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective way. This work package focuses on understanding the role of process variabilities on the various microstructural characteristics of the AM materials. Microstructures unique to AM materials, such as compositional micro-heterogeneity and dislocation cells, are of particular interest here since they can influence the creep properties and radiation performance. In fiscal year (FY) 24, we significantly advanced upon our work in the last fiscal year, both on physics-based and ML models. The alloy solidification model available in MOOSE has been extended to incorporate the thermodynamic properties and free energy relevant to 316SS. The model demonstrates the Cr segregation that occurs during solidifcation. It is demonstrated that rate of solidification and solute segregation is primarily influence by the cooling rate dictating the level of freezing. This work captures the microstructural variabilities at the subgrain level that are often missing in the part-scale models. With an aim to connect the microstructural evolution model to realistic process conditions, a reduced order model is developed for predicting the thermal conditions around meltpool from high-fidelity process simulations. Furthermore, machine learning approach is used to accelerate the temperature prediction during the AM process. In the following years, MALAMUTE will be used to connect different aspects of the models and quantitatively predict the microstructural evolution. The developed ML-based surrogate model will consider the process conditions as the input to predict the microstructural features in a cost-effective way. The generated microstructures can be used by other work packages under AMMT to evaluate the properties and environmental response of the material at the mesoscale. Thus, this work help identify the key microstructural features at the subgrain level that are significant in property/performance prediction of the AM products. This work will provide inputs to the large-scale process variability models to reevaluate and validate assumptions/simplifications made in the part-scale models. Furthermore, through active learning this work will help identify the data need from both modeling and experimental sides for development of a robust digital twin for AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1993

Time Simulation of Segmented Reflector Telescopes in Multidisciplinary Analysis

None Given. Article describes the integrated modeling tools necessary to predict the on-orbit performance of a Focus Mission Interferometer, which is representative of one of NASA's astrometric missions for extrasolar planet detection .

Control↗

DOE OSTI2023

Developing a Vorticity-Velocity-Based Off-Body Solver to Perform Multifidelity Simulations of Wind Farms

Wind power has become a key player in satisfying the global energy needs. With increased market penetration, unanticipated unsteady loading induced failures, installation related reductions in power generation, and significant maintenance costs have underscored the need to predict the unsteady fluid-structure interactions related to turbine layout and off-design wind conditions. Contemporary turbine design tools are incapable of accounting for such loadings. As a result, researchers have started utilizing high-Performance-Computing (HPC) based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers, such as the U.S. Department of Energy sponsored ExaWind software package, to investigate these phenomena. Unfortunately, such HPC tools are computationally expensive for routine industrial use, often because of the sheer number of cells required to resolve the wake flowfield. This paper describes a preliminary effort to address this issue by developing a vorticity-velocity based CFD off-body solver, VorTran-M2-AMReX, that integrates directly with DOE's ExaWind wind turbine analysis system to perform accurate and reliable simulations of wind turbine/farm at a lower computational cost than ExaWind alone. This article summarizes work undertaken to date concerning the assembly of the proposed analysis tool, and provides preliminary validation and verification of the VorTran-M2-AMReX off-body solver.

adaptive mesh refinement↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of The TREAT Facility Power and Temperature of Sirius-2c Nuclear Propulsion Fuel Experiment

This paper presents simulation results of the Sirius-2c full power experiment that was performed at the TREAT facility to support experiment modeling and transient analysis of the NASA-sponsored Sirius series of experiments for nuclear thermal propulsion applications. We presents a novel approach to predict the control rod motion and power of the reactor and the temperature of the specimen during transient experiments using the Griffin and Bison packages of the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). First, the model predicts the transient rod motion that results in the desired reactor power shape. Then, the temperature of the specimen is predicted based on the power deposited in the specimen. The prediction results are in good agreement with the measured reactor power and control rod position and over-predicted the specimen temperature which is mainly related to specimen surface emissivities. The reactor reaches a peak power of 80 MW and a specimen temperature of 2500 K and considering the right specimen emissivities the predicted temperature is in an excellent agreement with the measured values. This model can be utilized in helping and supporting the design and optimization a new experiments that are going to be irradiated in the TREAT facility.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

RouteE: A Vehicle Energy Consumption Prediction Engine

The emergence of connected and automated vehicles and smart cities technologies create the opportunity for new mobility modes and routing decision tools, among many others. To achieve maximum mobility and minimum energy consumption, it is critical to understand the energy cost of decisions and optimize accordingly. The Route Energy prediction model (RouteE) enables accurate estimation of energy consumption for a variety of vehicle types over trips or sub-trips where detailed drive cycle data are unavailable. Applications include vehicle route selection, energy accounting and optimization in transportation simulation, and corridor energy analyses, among others. The software is a Python package that includes a variety of pre-trained models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). However, RouteE also enables users to train custom models using their own data sets, making it a robust and valuable tool for both fast calculations and rigorous, data-rich research efforts. The pre-trained RouteE models are established using NREL’s Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator paired with approximately 1 million miles of drive cycle data from the Transportation Secure Data Center, resulting in energy consumption behavior estimates over a representative sample of driving conditions for the United States. Validations have been performed using on-road fuel consumption data for conventional and electrified vehicle powertrains. Transferring the results of the on-road validation to a larger set of real-world origin-destination pairs, it is estimated that implementing the present methodology in a green-routing application would accurately select the route that consumes the least fuel 90% of the time. The novel machine learning techniques used in RouteE make it a flexible and robust tool for a variety of transportation applications.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progress on Optimizing Wind Farms and Rotor Designs Using Adjoints

Modern wind plants are increasingly tasked with multiple performance objectives. In addition to designing plants that maximize power output and minimize the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), the design and operation of wind plants is increasingly influenced by challenges regarding grid integration of variable generation renewables. This places a growing emphasis on making wind plants more controllable and predictable. WindSE is a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model designed around analytical gradient and adjoint methods, with the ability to capture terrain-induced effects, as shown in Figure 1. The recent addition of an unsteady solver with an actuator line method (ALM) and ongoing work to enable massively parallel optimizations gives it a unique niche to explore coupled plant-level controls and design problems. This code is an open source python package built on the FEniCS framework that utilizes fast, parallel PETSc solvers to model fluid flow throughout wind-farm scale domains. Two recent studies performed using WindSE demonstrate the capability to optimize under a wide variety of flow conditions and objective functions. In the first, we present an optimization focused on modifying the layout of a wind farm with a fixed number of turbines for maximum total power output [1]. This study highlights the ability to quickly perform simulations using the steady Navier-Stokes solver combined with rotors represented as actuator disks while also stressing the importance of capturing terrain-induced effects. Gradient-based optimization using the RANS equations is viable due to the inclusion of efficiently computed adjoint derivatives. We interpret the physical results of the optimal layout and also discuss the computational cost of scaling to larger problems. In the second study, we present the capabilities of the unsteady Navier-Stokes solver, where rotor-blade profiles represented by actuator lines are optimized to enhance wake steering effects and overall power production [2]. We quantify the wind plant performance gains obtained from this type of simultaneous control co-design optimization as compared to optimizing the blade design and yaw independently. Figure 2 shows the differences between a baseline two-turbine system and an optimized system where we fine-tune the blade chord profile. Results and challenges from each study are quickly summarized and used to motivate the current development efforts within WindSE. Current and future work is focused on enabling higher-resolution studies with more degrees of freedom through parallelization of both the simulation and optimization algorithms. We present benchmarking results to show that WindSE performs well in both weak- and strong-scaling tests and further demonstrate that the optimizer obtains the same convergence rates in both shared- and distributed-memory environments. Using larger wind farms, we can study deep-array effects within an optimization context, allowing the use of objective functions that have been previously unstudied. As an example, we present ongoing work on a blockage metric which characterizes the loss of available kinetic energy due to wake effects from multiple upstream turbines.

adjoint optimization↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal Learning in Power Modules: Wavelet-Enhanced Forecasting of Thermomechanical Degradation

Detecting internal defects in power electronics packages is critical for their performance and reliability, especially under extreme operating conditions, as these defects can lead to catastrophic failure if not properly addressed. Confocal scanning acoustic microscopy (C-SAM) plays a key role in the nondestructive evaluation of bond layer degradation within a power electronics package by detecting defects such as delamination, voids, and cracks. However, accurately quantifying and predicting these defects from C-SAM images remains a significant challenge due to the low noise-to-signal ratio, which typically arises from both imaging process and bond patterns itself. In this paper, we explore machine learning strategies for processing C-SAM images and providing predictive models of defect growth. We use C-SAM images of sintered copper and sintered silver samples, which are obtained under accelerated thermal experiments, as the representative dataset for our study. We investigate the effect of Fourier transforms and wavelet transforms on these datasets to remove high-frequency noise and address noise across multiple scales with histogram equalization to enhance the contrast and improve the visibility of defects. As a result, defect boundaries can be clearly distinguished, enabling more accurate tracking of their growth over time. We then employ different time-series forecasting algorithms on the denoised images to formulate an image-based lifetime prediction model. Statistical models and deep-learning techniques are trained on images obtained in the early stages of thermal shock, and defect growth in the later stages is predicted. Our work serves as a preliminary attempt to improve the accuracy of lifetime prediction models of power electronics packages, which is critical under extreme operating environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Chemics-Reactors: A Preliminary Python Program for Implementing Network Models of Multiphase Reactors

We discuss the design and implementation of a preliminary software package written in Python 3 that is intended to represent complex multiphase reactors as networks of ideal continuous stirred tank reactors. This software also implements statistical design of experiments, uncertainty quantification, and global sensitivity analysis. These advanced features can provide important qualitative and quantitative insights into the effect of operating conditions and model parameters on predicted reactor performance. We demonstrate the utility of the program by modeling the vapor phase catalytic upgrading of bio-oil in a bubbling fluidized bed reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1992

Orbital transfer rocket engine technology: Advanced engine study

An advanced LOX/LH2 engine study for the use of NASA and vehicle prime contractors in developing concepts for manned missions to the Moon, Mars, and Phobos is documented. Parametric design data was obtained at five engine thrusts from 7.5K lbf to 50K lbf. Also, a separate task evaluated engine throttling over a 20:1 range and operation at a mixture ratio of 12 plus or minus 1 versus the 6 plus or minus 1 nominal. Cost data was also generated for DDT&E, first unit production, and factors in other life cycle costs. The major limitation of the study was lack of contact with vehicle prime contractors to resolve the issues in vehicle/engine interfaces. The baseline Aerojet dual propellant expander cycle was shown capable of meeting all performance requirements with an expected long operational life due to the high thermal margins. The basic engine design readily accommodated the 20:1 throttling requirement and operation up to a mixture ratio of 10 without change. By using platinum for baffled injector construction the increased thermal margin allowed operation up to mixture ratio 13. An initial engine modeling with an Aerojet transient simulation code (named MLETS) indicates stable engine operation with the baseline control system. A throttle ratio of 4 to 5 seconds from 10 percent to 100 percent thrust is also predicted. Performance predictions are 483.1 sec at 7.5K lbf, 487.3 sec at 20K lbf, and 485.2 sec at 50K lbf with a mixture ratio of 6 and an area ratio of 1200. Engine envelopes varied from 120 in. length/53 in. exit diameter at 7.5K lbf to 305 in. length/136 in. exit diameter at 50 K lbf. Packaging will be an important consideration. Continued work is recommended to include more vehicle prime contractor/engine contractor joint assessment of the interface issues.

Hayden, Warren R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗