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At least 235 records · Page 13

2022 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

This report is a 2022 update to the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) report that examined the potential system performance of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system during the summer of 2021. Anticipated summer reserve margins in ERCOT have risen year-over-year from the 15.7 percent reported in ERCOT’s Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2021 to 22.8 percent in the Final SARA for Summer 2022, driven mostly by increases in wind and solar generation. Using data from ERCOT’s 2022 Summer SARA, Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) reports, and historical performance data obtained from ERCOT and Hitachi Energy Velocity Suite, six economic dispatch scenarios using PROMOD were developed to assess the risk to ERCOT of a load shedding event for Summer 2022. The results suggests that ERCOT may be facing a very tight resource adequacy situation, with the potential for a serious shortfall during the summer peak, usually the end of July through mid-August, if demand and generator outage rates significantly exceed peak levels. Under these conditions, ERCOT will need to call on its operating tools, including Energy Emergency Alerts (EEA) and calls to conserve electricity, to maintain reliability and continue serving load. Those measures alone may not be sufficient to avert a shedding of load.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cosmological moduli and non-perturbative production of axions

Cosmological moduli generically come to dominate the energy density of the early universe, and thereby trigger an early matter dominated era. Such non-standard cosmological histories are expected to have profound effects on the evolution and production of axion cold dark matter and dark radiation, as well as their prospects for detection. We consider moduli-axion couplings and investigate the early history of the coupled system, considering closely the evolution of the homogeneous modulus field, the back-reaction from the axion, and the energy densities of the two fields. A particular point of interest is the enhancement of axion production from modulus decay, due to tachyonic and parametric resonant instabilities, and the implications of such production on the cosmological moduli problem, axion dark radiation, and the available parameter space for axion dark matter. Using an effective field theory approach, WKB-based semi-analytical analysis, and detailed numerical estimates of the co-evolution of the system, we evaluate the expected decay efficiency of the modulus to axions. The effects of higher-order operators are studied and implications for UV-complete frameworks such as the Large Volume Scenarios in Type IIB string theory are considered in detail.

Axions and ALPs↗

Multistage Stochastic optimization for mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric system with renewable energy uncertainty

The uncertainties resulting from the escalating penetration of renewable energy resources pose severe challenges to the efficient operation of modern power systems. Hydroelectricity is characterized by its flexibility, controllability, and reliability, and thus becomes one of the most ideal energy resources to hedge against such uncertainties. This paper studies the mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of a cascaded hydroelectric system (CHS) consisting of multiple cascaded reservoirs and hydroelectric units. To precisely describe the mid-term water regulation policies, the hydraulic coupling relationship and water-energy nexus of CHS are incorporated into the proposed optimization model. The uncertainties of natural water inflow and the power outputs of wind/solar energy generation are taken into consideration and captured via a stochastic process modeled by a scenario tree. A multistage stochastic optimization (MSO) approach is developed to coordinate the complementary operations of multiple energy resources, by optimizing the mid-term water resource management, generation scheduling, and maintenance scheduling of CHS. The proposed MSO model is formulated as a large-scale mixed-integer linear program that presents significant computational intractability. To address this issue, a tailored Benders decomposition algorithm is developed. Two real-world case studies are conducted to demonstrate the capability and characteristics of the proposed model and algorithm. The computational results show that the proposed MSO model can exploit the flexibility of hydroelectricity to efficiently respond to variable wind and solar power, and reserve water resources for the generation in peak months to reduce the consumption of fossil fuel. Furthermore, the proposed solution approach also exhibits promising computational efficiency when handling large-scale models.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

2021 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

This report is an update to the NETL report on the same topic that examined the potential system performance of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system during the summer of 2020. Anticipated reserve margins in ERCOT have risen year-over-year from the 10.7 percent reported in ERCOT’s Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2020 to 15.7 percent for Summer 2021 in ERCOT’s Capacity, Demand and Reserves [CDR] report published in December 2020 and 2021 Summer Preliminary SARA published in March 2021. Using data from ERCOT’s 2021 Summer SARA, CDR, and historical performance data, six economic dispatch scenarios using PROMOD were developed to assess the risk to ERCOT of a load shedding event for Summer 2021. The results suggest that ERCOT could make it through the summer season without a loss of load event, as long as the weather remains normal. However, through a combination of scenarios, including increased demand, increased forced outages, and low wind output, ERCOT is likely to find itself operating in emergency conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Y-12 Groundwater Protection Program Monitoring Well Inspection and Maintenance Plan

This plan describes the systematic approach for: inspecting the physical condition of monitoring wells at Y-12, determining maintenance needs that extend the life of a well, and identifying those wells that no longer meet acceptable monitoring well design or well construction standards and require plugging and abandonment. The inspection and maintenance of groundwater monitoring wells is one of the primary management strategies of the Y-12 Groundwater Protection Program (GWPP) Management Plan, that is, the “proactive stewardship of the extensive monitoring well network at Y-12" (Consolidated Nuclear Security, L.L.C. [CNS], 2018). Effective stewardship, and a program of routine inspections of the physical condition of each monitoring well, ensures that representative water-quality samples and hydrologic data are obtained from the well network and protects the subsurface environment. In accordance with the Y-12 GWPP Monitoring Optimization Plan (MOP) for Groundwater Monitoring Wells at the Y-12 National Security Complex, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (CNS, 2017), the status designation (active or inactive) for each well determines the scope and extent of well inspections and maintenance activities. This plan, in conjunction with the above document, formalizes the GWPP approach to focus available resources on monitoring wells which provide the most useful data, and for that reason the GWPP inspects and performs maintenance on the wells sampled by the GWPP. This plan applies to groundwater monitoring wells installed at Y-12 and the related waste management facilities located within the three hydrogeologic regimes: (1) the Bear Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (Bear Creek Regime), (2) the Upper East Fork Poplar Creek Hydrogeologic Regime (East Fork Regime), and (3) the Chestnut Ridge Hydrogeologic Regime (Chestnut Ridge Regime). The Bear Creek Regime encompasses the section of Bear Creek Valley (BCV) immediately west of Y-12. The East Fork Regime encompasses most of the Y-12 process, operations, and support facilities in BCV west of Scarboro Road. The Chestnut Ridge Regime is directly south of Y-12 and encompasses a section of Chestnut Ridge that is bounded to the west by a surface drainage feature (Dunaway Branch, located immediately west of Industrial Landfill II) and by Scarboro Road to the east. The GWPP maintains an extensive database of geographic and construction details and related information for the monitoring wells in each hydrogeologic regime in the Updated Subsurface Database for Bear Creek Valley, Chestnut Ridge, and Parts of Bethel Valley on the U.S. DOE Oak Ridge Reservation (CNS, 2019). A detailed description of the hydrogeologic framework at Y-12 can be found in the GWPP Management Plan (CNS, 2018).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Follow-on Report of Analysis of Approaches to Supplemental Treatment of Low-Activity Waste at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation (Vol. I)

The Hanford Site, in southeast Washington State, is preparing to disposition approximately 56,000,000 gallons (56 Mgal) of radioactive and chemically hazardous wastes currently stored in underground tanks at the site. Tank wastes will be divided into a high-activity fraction and a low-activity fraction for subsequent treatment and disposition. A waste processing and treatment facility, the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP), will include the high-level waste (HLW) vitrification facility (WTP HLW Vitrification Facility) for immobilizing the high-activity fraction and a low-activity waste (LAW) vitrification facility (WTP LAW Vitrification Facility) for immobilizing the low-activity fraction. Both facilities will use vitrification technology to immobilize the Hanford tank wastes in a glass waste form. The volume of LAW to be treated and disposed of following waste retrieval and WTP operations will exceed the planned processing capacity of the WTP LAW Vitrification Facility. ORP-11242,-River Protection Project System Plan, estimates a shortfall in LAW treatment capacity of approximately 56 Mgal, approximately 50% of the projected LAW volume. To maintain the planned tank waste processing mission schedule, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will require additional LAW treatment capacity (termed “supplemental LAW”) external to the WTP process. LAW must be solidified by a treatment technology before the waste can be permanently disposed of in an approved DOE on-site disposal facility or a commercial (state or U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission [NRC-licensed]) off-site mixed low-level waste disposal facility. A decision on the approach to supplemental LAW treatment, processing, and disposal has not yet been made

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Modelling the Liquid Waste Operation at the Savannah River Site

Modeling Successes Dounreay – Site Closure Optimization and Risk Reduction Re-structuring and streamlining a complex project plan to achieve site decommissioning in reduced time and at reduced cost, through automated task prioritization. Idaho AMWTP – Multi-stream Optimization Speeding up a complex facility with many process lines, by utilizing all of the process lines more efficiently and reducing overall plant downtime, by coordinating repairs and shutdowns. AWE –Waste Repackaging and Relocation Relocating schedule for waste material from an old storage facility to a new purpose-built one, safely, and in a timely fashion that removed the need to reassure the safety of the old facility. Sellafield – Effluent, Sludge and HAW Treatment Improving a wide range of chemical engineered processes including aqueous effluent treatment, chemically-reactive sludge management and waste vitrification processing. Strategic Petroleum Reserve – Cavern Management Linking chemistry models of petroleum prediction, through engineering cavern management to financial modeling of gasoline sales to benefit US government

Jung, Andrew W.↗

Adaptive Protection of Scientific Backbone Networks Using Machine Learning

In this article, we propose a new protection scheme for backbone networks to guarantee high service availability. The presented scheme does not require any reconfiguration immediately after the failure (i.e., it is proactive). At the same time, it does not require any reserved backup network resources either. To achieve these seemingly contradictory goals, we utilize the recent advancements in Machine Learning (ML) to implement a network intelligence that periodically re-allocates the unused capacity as protection bandwidth to meet the service availability requirements of each connection. Our goal is achieved by two components (1) predicting the traffic for the next period on each link, and (2) intelligently selecting the best fit dedicated protection scheme for the next period depending on the estimated unused (spare) bandwidth and the previous service availability violations. Note that re-allocating protection bandwidth affects neither the operational connections nor the current best practice of operators to over-provision network bandwidth to support elephant flows. Finally, we provide a case study on the real traffic from Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), a high-speed, international scientific backbone network. The key benefit of our framework is that adaptively utilizing the over-provisioned bandwidth for spare capacity is sufficient to improve the availability from three-nines to five-nines (in ESnet for the 30 examined connections). The drawback is negligible bandwidth limitations; the user perceives a minor and very temporal bandwidth limitation in less than 0.1% of the time.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mercury Remediation Technology Development for Lower East Fork Poplar Creek (FY2020 Update)

Mercury (Hg) remediation is a high priority for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management. Mercury contamination in the environment can be found at all three DOE facilities in Oak Ridge, but probably the greatest environmental risk concern relative to Hg on the Oak Ridge Reservation is associated with historical Hg losses at and near the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12). Water and fish from East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) downstream of Y-12 exceed regulatory thresholds. Because of the complexities of Hg transport and fate in the aquatic environment, conventional remedial options for EFPC are highly uncertain. DOE is using a phased adaptive management approach to Hg remediation at Y-12 with a focus in the next few years on construction of the Mercury Treatment Facility (MTF) to treat the most contaminated Y-12 outfall entering EFPC (DOE 2017a; DOE 2017b). Once operational, the MTF will provide additional protection against inadvertent releases of Hg into the stream from decontamination and decommissioning of Y-12 Hg-use buildings. Although the MTF is anticipated to substantially decrease Hg water concentrations and flux in the upper part of EFPC, research and technology development are needed to develop appropriate and long-term remedial solutions for the downstream environment. Since late 2014, the Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management and URS | CH2M Oak Ridge LLC/Restoration Services, Inc. have supported DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Environmental Sciences Division staff in conducting field and laboratory studies to develop Hg remedial technology solutions for lower EFPC (LEFPC). A technology development strategy for LEFPC was developed in 2014 that was consistent with the adaptive management paradigm and DOE’s technology readiness level (TRL) guidelines (Peterson et al. 2015). Initially, a thorough review of the literature was conducted and site-specific information was collected to develop a broad number of potential technologies that might be applied in LEFPC. An adaptive management approach was then used to focus on technologies that might have the most promise and potential remediation benefit. Field and laboratory studies conducted from 2014 to 2020 have identified the major drivers of Hg flux and bioaccumulation in EFPC and narrowed the list of high-merit technologies that might be of use in remediating the downstream environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Cavern Leaching Monitoring CY21

Th e U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is a crude oil storage system administered by the U.S. Department of Energy. The reserve consists of 60 active storage caverns located in underground salt domes spread across four sites in Louisiana and Texas, near the Gulf of Mexico. Beginning in 2016, the SPR started executing C ongressionally mandated oil sales. The configuration of the reserve, with a total capacity of greater than 700 million barrels ( MMB ) , re quires that unsaturated water (referred to herein as ?raw? water) is injected into the storage caverns to displace oil for sales , exchanges, and drawdowns . As such, oil sales will produce cavern growth to the extent that raw water contacts the salt cavern walls and dissolves (leaches) the surrounding salt before reaching brine saturation. SPR injected a total of over 45 MMB of raw water into twenty - six caverns as part of oil sales in CY21 . Leaching effects were monitored in these caverns to understand how the sales operations may impact the long - term integrity of the caverns. While frequent sonars are the most direct means to monitor changes in cavern shape, they can be resource intensive for the number of caverns involved in sales and exchanges. An interm ediate option is to model the leaching effects and see if any concerning features develop. The leaching effects were modeled here using the Sandia Solution Mining Code , SANSMIC . The modeling results indicate that leaching - induced features do not raise co ncern for the majority of the caverns, 15 of 26. Eleven caverns, BH - 107, BH - 110, BH - 112, BH - 113, BM - 109, WH - 11, WH - 112, WH - 114, BC - 17, BC - 18, and BC - 19 have features that may grow with additional leaching and should be monitored as leaching continues in th ose caverns. Additionally, BH - 114, BM - 4, and BM - 106 were identified in previous leaching reports for recommendation of monitoring. Nine caverns had pre - and post - leach sonars that were compared with SANSMIC results. Overall, SANSMIC was able to capture the leaching well. A deviation in the SANSMIC and sonar cavern shapes was observed near the cavern floor in caverns with significant floor rise, a process not captured by SANSMIC. These results validate that SANSMIC continues to serve as a useful tool for mon itoring changes in cavern shape due to leaching effects related to sales and exchanges.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Aluminum Ultra-conductors for Energy-Efficient Aerospace Busbar Applications (Abstract)

In this project, we will develop aluminum ultra-conductors with graphene additives demonstrating enhanced electrical conductivity at 90 °C compared to electric grade aluminum alloy AA1100 (43% IACS at 90 °C). While ultra-conductivity has been developed in copper and copper alloys, it is yet to be reported extensively in aluminum-based materials. This project will scale initial work done at PNNL on aluminum ultra-conductors using shear-assisted processing and extrusion (ShAPETM), a novel solid phase processing technique. Ultra-conductors are an emerging class of composites, comprised of a metal substrate with small quantities of nanocrystalline additives such as graphene or carbon nanotubes that demonstrate enhanced conductivity at relevant operating temperatures. Aluminum ultra-conductors can improve efficiency and power density while reducing the demand for copper in a wide range of applications, such as power transmission cables and electric motors. Busbars are an important component in aerospace systems that require lightweight and high-current power distribution including both future electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircrafts and current aircraft electrical systems. We will accelerate aluminum ultra-conductor composite formulation development using combinatorial synthesis and testing methods aided by process/microstructure modeling, developed previously at PNNL. Eaton will test the properties of the ShAPE aluminum ultra-conductor feedstock (used to make the busbars) in relevant operating conditions (20 – 90 °C), predict the improvement in busbar performance when manufactured with ultra-conductors over commercial conductors (such as AA1100), and perform technoeconomic analysis to evaluate the potential for commercialization of ShAPE aluminum ultra-conductors. The project is expected to have a budget of $\$375$K, with $\$300$K in federal funding and $\$75$K in-kind cost-share contribution from Eaton over a period of performance of 24 months. Of the $\$300$K of federal funds, $\$140$K is allocated for CRADA activities that generate intellectual property (IP), and the remaining $\$160$K is reserved for modeling, material testing, characterization, travel, and reporting-related activities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Influence of Hybridization on the Capacity Value of PV and Battery Resources

Utility-scale systems that combine solar photovoltaic and battery (PV+battery) technologies are growing in popularity on the U.S. bulk power system. The business case for PV+battery systems depends on both their ability to reduce costs and their ability to generate value synergies associated with the provision of energy, capacity, and ancillary services. Capacity value can constitute a significant portion of the value PV+battery hybrids provide to the grid (e.g., through avoided or deferred capacity) and receive through revenues. Throughout this report, we define capacity value as the monetary value of a plant's contribution towards the planning reserve margin, which ultimately depends on market rules and structures. PV+battery hybrids do not always fit into current market structures because of the interactions between the PV and battery components. Unique considerations for the capacity value of PV+battery hybrids include the disparate nature of participation models for PV and battery technologies in existing market rules and the potential influence of a shared interconnection capacity; limitations imposed by a shared inverter; limited ability to charge the battery in advance of capacity events if charging must be sourced from the coupled PV; and challenges or uncertainties associated with co-optimizing the operations of the PV and battery components. Grid operators are currently considering how market structures can be modified to optimally determine the capacity value provided by PV+battery systems, and the rules of how they are integrated into markets are still being written. As with any resource, poorly designed rules could increase the cost of energy and reduce system reliability, while well-designed rules could allow markets to receive the full benefits hybrid systems can offer without overcompensating them for the services they provide. Well-designed rules for PV+battery systems must consider the unique aspects listed above, while leveraging the commonalities with existing resource types. In this report, we summarize the technical capability and market rules that influence the capacity value of PV+battery systems. We further discuss the potential tradeoffs between computational complexity and accuracy for the various ways in which grid operators can credit PV+battery systems for capacity. Finally, we describe markets for capacity, survey current wholesale market rules applying to PV+battery systems, and provide a snapshot of the current regulatory landscape for PV+battery systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Mercury Remediation Technology Development for Lower East Fork Poplar Creek—FY 2021 Update

Mercury remediation is a high priority for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management. Mercury contamination in the environment can be found at all three DOE facilities in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, but the greatest environmental risk concern relative to Hg on the Oak Ridge Reservation is likely associated with historical Hg losses at and near the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12). Mercury in water and fish from East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) downstream of Y-12 exceeds regulatory thresholds. Because of the complexities of Hg transport and fate in the aquatic environment, conventional remedial options for EFPC are highly uncertain. DOE is using a phased adaptive management approach to Hg remediation at Y-12, with a focus in the next few years on construction of the Mercury Treatment Facility (MTF) to treat the most contaminated Y-12 outfall entering EFPC (DOE 2017a; DOE 2017b). Once operational, the MTF will provide additional protection against inadvertent releases of Hg into the stream from decontamination and decommissioning of Y-12 Hg-use buildings. Although the MTF is anticipated to substantially decrease Hg water concentrations and flux in upper EFPC (UEFPC), research and technology development are needed to develop appropriate and longer-term remedial solutions for the downstream environment. Since late 2014, the Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management and URS | CH2M Oak Ridge LLC/Restoration Services Inc. have supported DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Environmental Sciences Division staff in conducting field and laboratory studies to develop Hg remedial technology solutions for lower EFPC (LEFPC). Whereas previous annual reporting updates for Hg remediation technology development for LEFPC have focused on presenting detailed results from the previous fiscal year, this FY 2021 update takes a comprehensive, higher-level approach to the research and technology development activities conducted since 2014. The report is organized to be consistent with the three tasks defined in the LEFPC strategic plan

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE Hanford Tank Side Cesium Removal System (TSCR) Update: Fabrication and Factory Acceptance Testing - 20300

The Tank Side Cesium Removal (TSCR) System is a modular, quickly-deployable, and passively safe system for efficiently removing solids and cesium from alkaline liquid waste raffinate created by fuel processing on the Hanford site. This paper provides an overview of the project with particular emphasis on completion of fabrication and factory acceptance testing (FAT). All TSCR System components are inside three enclosures known as the Process Enclosure, Ancillary Enclosure, and Control Enclosure. The Process Enclosure is seismic design category II (SDC-II) and built to withstand the rigors of transportation and lifting, high winds, volcanic ash fall, and heavy precipitation (snow) over a temperature range of -25 to 115 deg. F. The Process Enclosure and Control Enclosure were fabricated in AVANTech's Columbia, SC facility, while the Ancillary Enclosure was fabricated in AVANTech's Richland, WA facility. The design and preliminary documented safety analysis were completed in December 2019, with all work being performed in accordance with ASME NQA-1 quality assurance requirements. The Process Enclosure, Ion Exchange Columns (IXCs), and several other TSCR components have a nuclear safety function and are designated as safety significant structures, systems, and components (SS-SSCs). The NQA-1 Commercial Grade Dedication (CGD) process was used to identify critical characteristics in order to accept materials and items used for fabrication of several safety significant TSCR components. This paper also addresses unique aspects and challenges of implementing CGD in DOE facilities and systems. After fabrication and preliminary testing, the Process and Control Enclosures were shipped to AVANTech's Richland facility where the complete TSCR System was setup and connected in a represented layout and configuration that will be used on the Hanford site. Test tanks and pumps were put in place and connected to the TSCR Process Enclosure in a manner that mimicked interfacing Double Shell Tanks in the 241-AP Tank Farm. The TSCR System was then tested/operated under conditions equivalent to those planned for onsite operation. Testing was separated into five separate phases as defined below: - Phase 1: Confirmation of TSCR System readiness for the FAT; - Phase 2: Verification of TSCR System operation under standard conditions; - Phase 3: Demonstration of TSCR System operation under non-standard conditions; - Phase 4: Demonstration of ion exchange media removal from an IXC; and - Phase 5: Completion of TSCR System lift plans and site mobilization. The Hanford Tank Operations Contractor, Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS), participated in all phases of testing. Testing at AVANTech's Richland Facility allowed WRPS personnel to familiarize themselves with TSCR operations in a radiologically clean facility prior to onsite mobilization. Engineering and operations personnel gained valuable experience that allowed them to better refine onsite operational protocols and procedures - including handling and movement of IXCs with a forklift. This paper describes the technologies used by the TSCR System as well as how these technologies are deployed and operated to advance the Hanford mission of safely, efficiently, and effectively treating tank waste. It also provides detailed information on fabrication and FAT, including operational data from simulated tank waste runs. A project schedule for WRPS' planned construction acceptance testing, operational acceptance testing, and actual tank waste treatment is provided. This presentation should be of great interest to parties responsible for the design, testing, and mobilization of modular NQA-1 technologies for the treatment of raffinate and similar liquid wastes containing high concentrations of radioactive cesium. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Towards Development of a Conceptual Model for Mercury in Bear Creek, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (FY23 Update)

Mercury concentrations in fish in Bear Creek are elevated and comparable to concentrations seen in fish in East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) on the Oak Ridge Reservation, even though aqueous inorganic mercury concentrations are orders of magnitude lower in Bear Creek than in EFPC. Acknowledging that the relationship between aqueous and fish tissue mercury concentrations is not linear, and that methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations are likely more related to fish tissue concentrations than aqueous total mercury (Hg T ) concentrations, MeHg production is not easily predicted or controlled. In Bear Creek, where aqueous Hg T concentrations are low, factors other than mercury loading drive the transformation of mercury to MeHg and subsequent trophic transfer to fish. Initial development of a waste disposal facility (Environmental Management Disposal Facility; EMDF) in Bear Creek Valley has begun, and operation of the EMDF has the potential to increase mercury inputs to Bear Creek. Consequently, understanding the factors contributing to elevated MeHg concentrations in water and fish in Bear Creek has increased relevance and importance. This report summarizes data from recent and historical compliance and investigatory studies with an eye toward building a conceptual model to understand the processes affecting mercury transport and transformation in the Bear Creek watershed, as well as to highlight key knowledge gaps in our understanding of these processes that warrant further investigation. The conceptual model will provide a strong technical basis for prioritizing and optimizing potential mitigation actions or best management practices to minimize potential negative effects of the EMDF related to mercury in Bear Creek.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Sizing ramping reserve using probabilistic solar forecasts: A data-driven method

Ramping products have been introduced or proposed in several U.S. power markets to mitigate the impact of load and renewable uncertainties on market efficiency and reliability. Current methods often rely on historical data to estimate the requirements of ramping products and fail to take into account the effects of the latest weather conditions and their uncertainties, which could lead to overly conservative or insufficient requirements. This study proposes a k-nearest-neighbor-based method to give weather-informed estimates of ramping needs based on short-term probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts. Forecasts from multiple sites are employed in conjunction with principal component analysis to derive numerical classifiers to characterize system-level weather conditions. In addition, we develop a data-driven method to optimize the model parameters in a rolling-forward manner. By using real-world data from the California Independent System Operator, we design two metrics to evaluate method performance: 1) frequency of shortage and 2) oversupply of ramping product. Our proposed method presents advantages in comparison with the baseline and a set of benchmark methods: without compromising system reliability, it reduces system ramping requirements by up to 25%, therefore improving both system reliability and economics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Panel Session 120: Roundtable: Waste Management - Energy Facilities Contractor Operating Group (EFCOG WM)

This Roundtable focused on the WM EFCOG working group as they met to discuss a variety of issues of importance to US DOE waste management operations. The purpose of the WM EFCOG is to seek out and promote the best management and operating practices, cost effective technologies and disposal options for all waste streams generated at US DOE facilities whether destined for US DOE or commercial facilities. Each site representative provided a radioactive waste management lessons learned briefing. Panelists with presentations: Savannah River Site (SRS) Solid Waste Program Update (Kerri Crawford); Idaho Clean-up Project Status (Frederick Hughes); West Valley Demonstration Project Update - EFCOG Waste Management Working Group (John Rendall); Key Project Challenges and Successes (Kalli Shupe); EFCOG WMWG Challenging Waste Subgroup Update (Tammy Monday); CH TRU Difficult Waste Stream Processing Challenges (Daniel Pancake); Argonne Building 350 Clean-up Success Using Effective Work Control (Daniel Dilday); Problematic Waste Streams on the Oak Ridge Reservation (John Wrapp)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Panel Session 88: Waste Management from Remediation of Legacy Sites or Unplanned Releases

This panel focused on the progression of cleanup on the Hanford Site, Washington, USA, from establishing the regulatory framework necessary for cleanup, to understanding the risks and addressing near-term hazards, to moving to 24/7 operations as cleanup focuses on tank waste treatment and co-located risk reduction efforts as the active cleanup footprint shrinks. Panelists with presentations: Hanford: Past, Present, Future (Brian Vance); Protecting the River (L. Ty Blackford); Hanford Tank Farms (John Eschenberg Jr.); The Hanford Site (Robert Wilkinson); The Hanford Site (Valerie McCain)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗